Brazzil

Oftentimes, presidential candidates are 'launched' so their candidatures can be eroded by media scrutiny. I believe this to be the case with César Maia, who, after the 'launch', took plenty of heat from prominent Cariocas, and was presented as a laggard in polls, with 3-5 % of voter's intentions throughout Brazil.

Alckmin has been lying low, despite his name having been mentioned several times. I believe he's more electable than Serra, but it's too early to make more than tentative guesses about what the PSDB is up to.

Regarding the PFL, the most consistent anti-Lulas has been senator Jorge Bornhausen's group. I suspect some candidate could be launched from that quarter, say, a few months before the race. I also remember Bornhausen himself announcing César Maia's candidature, which I believe is a ploy to weaken a rival from his own party.

The ACM group will pander to whomever is in charge, as eloquently demonstrated during the presidential race, where he shamelessly backed the candidate who was ahead, wether it was Ciro Gomes or Lula. Some in the PMDB talked of launching a candidate, but I believe most in this chronically fractious 'party' will follow the ACM-style 'adhesist', pork-grubbing line

Garotinho has been so badly trounced in his home turf, including his home town Campos, and his crude populist tactics have caused such a bad impression throughout Brazil, that I don't think another Garotinho candidature is viable in 2006. However, Garotinho is young, and could run again, say, in 2010 or 2014. He reportedly said that, I'm 44-years-old and have nine chidren. You'll have to put up with me for a long, long time'. This comment sent shivers through many, many spines...

Lula will win the next election. You'd have to be a delusional fool to believe otherwise. With the amazing job PT is doing in office, Lula will win in the first round of elections, and by a large margin. I just hope FHC runs for PSDB. Trouncing him in an election would be sweet, oh-so-sweet. It would actually be worth loosig the three prior elections just to crush FHC like the mediocre insect that he is, and PSDB with him.

Gabriel Soares

First, it is amazing that we are talking about an election 21 months away,and attempting to handicap a Presidental election in Brasil. 21 months is an eternity. I disagree with the PT poster that Lula can not be beat, but I do think it will be very tough, the President is a savy politican, and has had some success, but 21 months is a long way. I also would agree with this poster, that it would be best if Cardosa stayed in the US on the lecture circut, Lula would easily trounce him again. Serra won't run, if he changes his mind he will pay with the votes of Paulistas; from Brasil's largest city. Garotinho and his wife, the Governer of the state have made such a mess of things, no way he gets considered. He ended his political career with silly moves during the last local elections, and he , and his evangelical croneys have shown they are just as corrupt as the rest of them, and I believe they have lost favor in Rio, the only place the evangelicals hold any poularity. Although, the evangelical candidate ran second to Maia in the mayoral elections late last year, he could not have beat him in a second turn. Maia has very good political skills, but made a mistake by telling Carioca's he had no ambition for the Presidency before being elected mayor, and threw his hat into the ring shortly after achieving victory. Needless to say the Carioca's were not to pleased and sounded of. Still, there is lots of time left, and Carioca's usually have other things on their minds other than long term than politics. The problems in Rio are huge, and Maia would have to have some big successes in the next 21 months to challenge Lula in the election, very doubtful. That leaves Alckmin, my choice early on. He seems untouchable as far as corruption (although you never know), holds the respect of the PT as well as his own party and could pull votes away from Lula, and although quiet right know can challenge Lula on the carisma that makes Lula so effective. Again, its a long way, and thing will change 200,000 times between now and then, but the President is going to be very tough to defeat, and if he shows sustained economic success, while achieving some of his social goals...he will get my vote this time, last time he did not.

I shake my head in dismay when Brazilians complain about the inept government then demand elected officials expand the size and scope of government to take care of them! Where is the call for self-reliance? I am SOOOOO greatful for George W. Bush!

The WHOLE world shakes it's head in dismay at the 50 million American's who voted for the idiot!

We can't criticize American for Bush when we were dumb enough to elect Mr. Lula, if you compare them, they are very similar,

Both have almost no education, Mr. Lula did not go too high school, Mr. Bush was in a drugged out Frat Boy haze at Yale.

Both are alchoholics.

Neither speak English.

Both give fat contracts and jobs to their cronies based on what they can give them in return.

Both have very ugly wives.

Both have spoiled rotten kids.

And both are going to serve second terms...pretty depresing if you ask me.