Brazzil

Nice piece, Richard! The bubble may burst sooner than most think as China and India become more cost competitive and leave Brazil in the dust.

Got some news...China and India have ALREADY left Brasil in the dust. Hold on to your hats as Argentina, Mexico and Eastern Europe go by too.

Dear Mr. Hayes,

Nice to see you back. Good article too.

I disagree slightly with your view on monetary policy: sky-high interest is a symptom of external vulnerability, capital crowding ont by gov't debt, the public debt's still lousy profile, &c; ie the usual culprits. I consider Brazil's inflation control framework still messy: the inflation target is the widest in the world, politics is murky, inflation remains rather high, &c. I believe loosening things up, or be seen as wielding to pressure, would be worse in the long run.

About the IMF's "primary surplus" rules, I expect some toothless goodwill gestures, which will give responsible people in the government ammunition to fight the "progressives" without increasing the deficit too much.

Alas, I believe your earlier article "waiting for Lula... to get out" was dead accurate, the single best piece ever in this webzine. It rings pretty true right now. I don't expect much more from the crowd in place. Neither do I have much enthusiasm for the other forces lining up for the 2006 race. Well... il faut cultiver notre jardin.

Regards,
Paulo

Good analysis on what (and how) Brasilia is strangling the development of the economy and culture of Brazil. But to be frank, if Brazil doesn't want to become (and remain) the "whore of the whole world", it needs to be looking in another direction than just playing the blame-game continuously.

I believe the solution to be very simple, yet requiring both intensely hard work and a conquering will. In a word, the solution just might be "infrastructure". Let me be blunt, and please understand it is not my intention to ridicule anyone here. But I simply want to make a point that I think is being largely ignored.

In the early part of the 1900's the USA and Brazil were very similar in their cultures and economic development. Sure, there are cultural differences and differences in scale but overall the countries were very similar qualitatively, in my opinion.

Many consider that World War II changed everything and "created" the superpower that the USA is today. In my opinion, this popular point of view is extremely ignorant of the fact that the USA in the early 1900's invested HEAVILY in building it's own internal infrastructure such as waterways, roads, bridges, dams, sewage treatment, running water, electricity, communication, etc.

For comparison, today in Brazil:

1)Flush toilets can't even handle toilet paper without clogging. This is due to totally inadequate sewer systems... and I'm talking in the major cities!
2)Hot water heaters are rare, and even in 4-star hotels getting "hot water" (note: it is actually "warm" at best) is relegated to an "electrocution device" posing as an on-demand water heater attached to the chuveiro (shower head). Let's be honest, these things are dangerous. You can't even claim they're economical considering the ridiculous prices paid for electricity to power them.
3)Most residences don't even have adequate internal heating (or cooling). I was shocked when I discovered for the first time that even my "Class A" friends in S. Paulo city had to endure freezing days and nights with their babies because of such barbarous political policies.
4)Roads are a nightmare in Brazil in terms of access, economic usage, and personal safety. This is obvious to anyone that's been to Brazil and tried to drive from one city to another city. Dead-end roads leading nowhere, excessive tolls, and literally highway robbery (or worse) due to almost totally non-existent traffic law enforcement.
5)Railways to carry freight (or God forbid even passengers) is almost non-existent in Brazil. This isn't just pitiful, it's stupid. You can't sell the goods if you can't get them to market. This makes manufacturing and farming sort of difficult. Viu?

Here's my point.

The lesson is that most people don't defend a society, culture, or government that treats them like trash. They will not only become apathetic and show indifference, but will allow and even encourage the system to decay under it's own weight.

Understand that... and the election of Lula begins to make sense all of a sudden.

Here's my idea for a solution.

Brazil needs a true Brasileiro for president that both loves his country as it is, yet also has a conquering spirit that wants to make life better for his fellow Brasileiras. This can be only be done by investing in the infrastructure of the country. And here's the key point... the Government has to pay for it all, without foreign help or interference, or the effort will simply be prostituted, once again, for the exploitation by estrangeiros ricos.

Governmental life-styles and pensions may also have to be sacrificed a bit... but considering the potential benefit to the whole country... it is a small price to pay.

I believe that if Brazil did this, it could be the "next" top superpower within this century.

If not... if Brasilia allows itself to keep suckling at the breasts of the First World Banks and ignore the needs of their own country, then Brazil has only one foreseeable future.

1)Ultimately the economy will be overtaken by foreign interests owning everything.
2)The Brazilian population will be turned into world-class slave labor with drugs and sexual exploitation allowed as their only escape from the life forced on them by the economy as miserable human donkeys.
3)Brazil will literally lose everything. All it's natural resources will be burned, mined, and stripped and exported away, and the people will be left to struggle to survive with virtually no remaining natural resources. They will then be ridiculed by the rest of the world, as they starve, as having been "too lazy" to defend their right to exist in dignity.

This doesn't need to happen. Brazil can fix it, but they have to do it now, not later.

The world is changing too fast, and has "discovered" Brazil thanks to Lula's trips abroad. The global exploitation of Brazil race has only just left the starting line. Now, and more than ever, Brazil needs every last Brazilian it can recruit to defend it's society, culture, and dignity.

It's time for the Brazilian government to ween itself off of the milk of first-world capital, and then promote the growth of the country into a strong one by developing it's own infrastructure for both Brazilian business and the Brazilian people's life-styles.

Or, they can do nothing and let Brazil become the whore of the world.

Lula and Brasilia have a choice. I hope they make it a good one.

" In a word, the solution just might be "infrastructure"."

How about education ? -quality education on all levels of society with guaranteed scholarships and incentives for the talented ones (including full grants for studying partially abroad so they'll learn how to interact on an equal level with the world outside Planeta Brasil)

It's easy to imagine Brasil as a whore being used and sold to the highest bidder by her pimps if the country remains uneducated. No intelligentsia = less or no defence to exploitation.
There are countless young middle-class -or poor Brasileiros and Brasileiras wanting to go to university and get a good education so the can lift themselves -and their country to a higher level.
Unfortunately most will have to give up their dream because quality education is too expensive for them to keep up ...

So, affordable education is a fundamental key ...Brazil could realize this. It has the resources to do it.

But I doubt the ones who really rule (and manipulate) the country want the plebs to become to clever...It would give too much headache to control them.
So, quality education for the average Brasileiro will remain non-priority untill hell freezes over. And those who can afford it will go to their American(ized) universities where they will be learned that neoliberalism is the solution for everything and that if you want to belong to the global club and gain prestige you should open up your motherland's borders (or her legs if you prefer) and privatise(screw) everything so that Mr Hayes's clients can maximalise their profits. The Portfolio is Holy !

More, more, more...until there is no more...

And now I am going to watch Star Trek where you can get your kicks in the holosuite, where money no longer exists and capitalists are disgusting alien creatures... Zap !

Read michael Porter´s Competitive Advantage of nations

if you have the attention span, and if you want to find out what is wrong with Brazil.