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2005 -
September 2005
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Written by Carlos Chagas
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Tuesday, 13 September 2005 09:25 |
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What everybody in Brazil is talking about, this week, is not the explanation given by House Speaker Severino Cavalcanti, who hasn't explained a thing. Much less the possibility that congressman Roberto Jefferson be sacked by Thursday. What's really important is the interview of Vice-President José Alencar with the daily Folha de S. Paulo, on Sunday, as well as its consequences.
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Should Alencar replace Lula, you should have a short term exodus of capital ! That will be good because without government intervention you currency should weaken and make you again more competitive or more profitable for your exports !
Alencar said the first thing he would do is reduce interest rates....and that would amplify further the same things as just mentionned !!!!
Your economy growing faster than now would benefit :
- jobs creation
- increased corporate profits
- increased tax collection
- reduce somewhat amounts government borrows
- reduce borrowing costs with lower interest rates for government, corporate and individuals borrowing costs !
And after a few weeks if the transition has been smoothed....everything will be better than now...and foreign money will return !!!!
The world community should also see a strong commitment for the future of your country...from your new leaders.
The mistakes that should be not done are...
- a return of inflation
-.too much additional government spending, except for the poors....to get the votes for next year elections !!!!
With a gradual lowering of interest rates and a somewhat weakening of your currency....internal and external growth will help you for a sustained growth !!!!!!
Your government and corporations should issue more longer term bonds that would become a very good investment in case of lower interest rates !!!!!