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 Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has such a commanding lead in opinion polls that it hardly seems worth having an election. Why not just give Lula the victory by default and spare the electorate the effort of going to the polling station? Why not scrap the speeches and propaganda spots on the television that no-one watches or the news items and opinion pieces that no-one reads?
We are not watching any exercise in democracy at the moment but waiting to see by how many votes Lula humiliates his main rival, Geraldo Alckmin of the PSDB. It was obvious within a very short time of the PSDB's decision to allow Alckmin to be its candidate back in April that the party had made a big mistake. I have deliberately used the word "allow" here because the party leadership did not actually nominate Alckmin and the rank and file had no say whatsoever. Alckmin was so obsessed with being the candidate that he forced his main rival, José Serra, into a staring match. Serra blinked and Alckmin won. Alckmin's short-term victory was the PSDB's long-term loss and has practically ensured another four-year term for Lula. The Alckmin camp claimed that his record as a competent, honest state governor of São Paulo would appeal to the voters who were disillusioned by the sleaze and corruption which surrounded the PT-lead government. The Alckmin supporters admitted that their candidate was not well known in other parts of Brazil but claimed that, as the campaign developed, he would start picking up support, particularly after the television propaganda spots began appearing in August. This has not been the case. First of all, those disillusioned voters have not turned to Alckmin but to the radical left-wing candidate, Senator Heloísa Helena. Secondly, Alckmin has not made the breakthrough despite five months of exposure and the first week of television propaganda spots. In fact, according to the latest TV Globo poll, Lula is heading for victory in the first round with 47% of the vote compared with Alckmin's measly 21%, followed by Helena of the PSOL with 12%. Lula was the only candidate to actually gain support in this poll, adding an extra percentage point to his lead while Alckmin and Helena remained stable. A simulation of a second round of voting also highlighted Lula's lead - 53% to 32% for Alckmin compared with 51% to 33% in the previous poll. Allies Abandon Loser Alckmin There are signs that Alckmin could be abandoned by members of his own party and his allies in the PFL. Serra, who is running for the state governorship and is almost certain to win, has been notably absent from the Alckmin camp. The PSDB's rising star, Aécio Neves, who is set to regain the governorship of Minas Gerais in the first round, is not only keeping his distance from Alckmin but is maintaining his friendly relationship with Lula. Former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso is also keeping out of the spotlight. The PFL has also been showing its impatience. One of its most influential leaders, Senator Antonio Carlos Magalhães from Bahia, gave Alckmin a public telling-off in an interview with the Estado de S. Paulo newspaper and basically told him to change his mild-mannered approach and attack Lula. Alckmin was publicly shunned by the PFL in the state of Tocantins which did not send a representative to meet him when he arrived in the capital, Palmas, because the party is fighting a PSDB candidate for the state governorship. In some other states PFL candidates for governorships and the Senate are not even using Alckmin's name in their propaganda material although they are supposed to do so under the deal between the two parties. Alckmin says he will continue with his current low-key style and says that the election will heat up after the national holiday on September 7 to mark Brazil's independence day. This sounds like wishful thinking. However, maybe Alckmin really believes this and will spring a surprise on all of us but it would take a brave man to bet any money on his chances of forcing a second round, never mind winning the election. John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish writer and consultant with long experience of Brazil. He is based in São Paulo and runs his own company Celtic Comunicações. This article originally appeared on his site www.brazilpoliticalcomment.com.br. He can be contacted at
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. © John Fitzpatrick 2006
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In my opinion we don't do this because it's kind of our last chance to save the country we leave of another man which will steal everything that he can care on his pockets...
We don't consider this election ended because it would be nothing more than a sign telling that we don't care about who "comands" this nation....
Well... Maybe I'm wrong... But this is the opinion of a 16 years old boy... :-\
Bye all... And sorry for my bad english... I still learning it..