Brazzil

A little over five hours after the polls closed in Brazil, this Sunday, the National Election Board already had final official results showing what just three days ago seemed impossible, a result that will take President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva into a second-round runoff.

With 98% of all votes across Brazil counted President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has assured a victory with 48.79% of the votes, a number expressive enough to place him in first place in the presidential race but not big enough to prevent a runoff.

Former São Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin has 41.43% of the votes. while senator Heloísa Helena appears in third place, with 6.85% of the valid votes. Senator Cristovam Buarque gets 2.67%, litlte but more than the 2% polls were giving him.

The second round will be held in the last Sunday of the month, October 29, exactly four weeks after yesterday's vote.

Despite coming in second place, former governor Geraldo Alckmin, who belongs to the opposition party PSDB (Party of the Brazilian Social Democracy) appears more like a winner. He was able to secure a second round against all odds: the skepticism of the electorate, the doubts of the media and the lack of enthusiasm from his own party.

His first public statement after learning officially that he would face Lula in a second round: "I received all over Brazil a huge demonstration of trust and I enter the second round with a big chance to win the election.

"I want to make it clear that I'll be putting a lot of effort to be worthy of a still bigger confidence from the Brazilian people in the runoff. (...)

"I won in 11 Brazilian states and the Brazilian people are the ones who are going to win the second round,  because they will be able to compare proposals,  to deepen themes dealing with Brazil and to get more commitments from the next Brazilian president. (...)

"The PSDB grew a lot, it vastly increased its congressional delegation. Therefore, we will be able to have a bigger control in order to implement the reforms that Brazil needs."

While most of the ballots were closed by 5 pm, Brasília time, the difference of up to two hours in time zones caused the National Election Board (TSE) to only start releasing results around 7 pm. At that time the TSE estimated that final results for president and main gubernatorial races should be ready by midnight.

This was Brazil's largest election ever. Close to 126 million Brazilian registered voters went to the polls on Sunday to choose besides the president, governors for all its 27 states and a Federal District, 27 senators, 513 House representatives and hundreds of state assemblymen.

This year's electoral campaign was filled with surprises and corruption stories until the eve of the elections. A little over a week before election day the Federal Police caught people affiliated with the ruling party PT (Workers Party) with a pile of cash (close do US$ 800,000) to buy what it was supposed to be a dossier incriminating candidates of the PSDB.

It's believed that this last-minute scandal eroded the substantial lead Lula had until then, an advantage that would guarantee him reelection without the need for a second-round runoff. Lula's refusal to participate in the last presidential debate on TV seems to also have played a role in this erosion.

Before the dossier case, other scandals had already tarnished the campaign. Among other cases that were exploited by the opposition there was the mensalão (big monthly allowance) in which members of congress received a monthly stipend to vote with the government.

More recently, the Sanguessugas (bloodsuckers) scandal involved once again congressmen who received a kickback for approving the purchase of overpriced ambulances. Most of those involved in the scheme belonged to parties allied to the government.

Just yesterday morning, election day, Lula commented with friends that he was bitter at the idea of having another whole month of campaign ahead of him in case he could not make it in the first round.

His advantage evaporated in a couple of days following his absence from the TV debate on Thursday followed by the leaked pictures of piles of money that was supposed to be used to buy a dossier against his opponents.

Until now it wasn't revealed where all that money came from. Such a revelation should bring further erosion to the president's candidacy now that he has to face Alckmin in a second round. 

Soon after having voted  in a school in the south zone of São Paulo, Alckmin confided to reporters: "Everything tells us that we are in the second round. Our research has indicated that, but I intend to keep wearing my humility sandals."

Former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso from the same party as Alckmin before knowing that his candidate had made into the second round commented:  "If Lula is reelected it will be a government that will have to face many hardships because the president kept some popularity, but lost all the respect."

Comments (12)

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Ethical Journalism
written by Critical Reader, October 02, 2006

This article doesn't support the assertion that Alckmin is the runoff favorite. It seems more likely that Heloísa's supporters would go with Lula, as evidenced by published hypothetical runoff polls. But what do I know, I'm not even Brazilian! :-

retired
written by annie, October 02, 2006

It is sad to say but Mr.Lula lost the first round because he thought to be invincble. He talks about achievements - health care almost perfect whilst in reality it is going down the drain. He talks about bolsa de familia, whilst in reality taking the dignity of people and creating a population of millions of beggars. Taxes at around 37 % are comparable to western european countries, but those countries offer a secure social network and healthcare and solid education.
In the meantime only in the last three weeks, 4 children below 12 were killed in Rio de Janeiro during clashes between gang leaders and military police. Renan died yesterday in the age of 3 years. The police hardly can give him the label of "member of a drug faction" and he certainly did not show the often used argument of "armed resistance".
But this is another sad chapter.

Where is Heloisa Going ?
written by Rony, October 02, 2006

Heloisa is strongly opposed to Lula since whe has a proposition of breaking with all right-centrist practices from Fernando Henrique Cardoso (Former president before Lula) and Lula (who is continuing those practices, but including populist actions, like the Bolsa Familia). She has nowhere to go now. Nobody to endorse. Some believe that she will campaign for nule votes and the majority of her voters wil vote for Alckmin whilst a smaller part will vote for Lula. What is certain is that the second round is 'a new election' and that Lula will not have a clear advantage over Alckmin. Ethics might win over corruption after all !

simple but probably stupid deduction.......
written by Basic Maths, October 02, 2006

From October 1 to October 20, there is NOT exactly 4 weeks, as the article counted.

But since Brazilians are more clever than everyone else , I suppose in Brazilian maths and education it is 4 weeks !

Therefore not surprising that nothing works smoothly in this country.

Should have read October 29
written by 4 weeks, October 02, 2006

"Basic Maths," I believe the article should have read October 29, as opposed to October 20. This would indeed be 4 weeks...but I don't need to help you with this deduction, as your command of the English language speaks volumes

mistake
written by jose afonso, October 02, 2006

The next round will be at October 29

In Brazil the more you are corrupted.....
written by Basic Maths, October 02, 2006

.....the better chance you have to be elected and even re-elected !
Therefore no doubt that Lula will win the second round....hands on, but fingers crossed when he will swear for more justice and less corruption !

Bloomberg news article :
"
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilians elected to Congress several politicians who have faced corruption charges, including former President Fernando Collor de Mello, ex- Finance Minister Antonio Palocci and former Sao Paulo Mayor Paulo Maluf.

``As a citizen, I feel very disappointed and frustrated,'' said Marco Aurelio de Mello, the head of the electoral court, as congressional results from yesterday's election were released.

Collor de Mello was impeached in 1992 on charges of graft. Palocci, who resigned this year amid allegations he violated banking secrecy laws, was charged in April with racketeering and embezzlement of public funds during his tenure as mayor of the city of Ribeirao Preto. Maluf, the most voted deputy yesterday in Sao Paulo state, spent 40 days in jail on charges he and his son conspired to overcharge for public works and receive kick-backs from contractors and stashing them in foreign bank accounts.

Collor de Mello, a member of the Labor Renovation Party, won the race for senator in the state of Alagoas with 44 percent of the vote, electoral authorities said. He defeated Ronaldo Lessa, who won 40 percent.

In 1992, Collor de Mello stepped down as Brazil's president after being accused of involvement in an influence-peddling ring. Collor de Mello's government froze citizens' savings accounts to stabilize the financial system. In 2002, he was defeated in the gubernatorial race in Alagoas.

Palocci, who resigned as finance minister on March 27, was elected federal deputy for the Sao Paulo state for the Workers' Party. Palocci on April 4 denied the banking secrecy allegations through his lawyer, Jose Roberto Batochio.

Maluf was a mayor of Sao Paulo from 1969 to 1972 and again in 1993-1996 and was governor of Sao Paulo state from 1979 to 1982. "



Unfortunate that Marcola, the PCC chief was not a candidate for Congress.
He would have won a seat......hands on too !

...
written by Critical Reader, October 02, 2006

So much happened in one week, wonder what can happen in four.

Poor choices
written by Elect the next theif..., October 02, 2006

The alarming thing about this election that the so called "social-programs" of Lula and the PT, actually work... They were not designed to help the poor but to solidify an electoral base among the poor for PT with "Evita" like concessions which aim to bypass the middle class. The solid vote for Lula in the North and NorthEast as well as among the increasingly "favelizada" state of RJ show this strategy worked.

PT next have their eyes on a much more dangerous political manipulation - the race card - with the aim of creating a "positive discrimination" for black brazilians in Universities. Again instead of improving school and second grade education PT creates a gimick that looks good but have bad socio-economic implications; universities will of course have to lower standards and accept a more complicated social program that should be tackled much earlier. Hence the real aim of this so called reform is again to solidify an electoral base at the expense of the middle class and intesify undercurrent social tensions.

Neither candidate seems to have any answer for tackling such issues, Helena with her dogmatic marxist proclamations is based in idealism rather than realism that is badly needed in order to tackle the immense problems of this country. Alckmin doesnt have much to say either, but I guess in the end of it all we elect the least worst thief...

...
written by a guest, October 03, 2006

"Alckmin doesnt have much to say either, but I guess in the end of it all we elect the least worst thief... "

I hope you don't hold a short-term memory then! or is this a better way of living your brazilian life? my deductios are... yes, that's exactly what your goin' to do! globo american enlatados futebol and women here we go finnaly!

Ovovo
written by john altmann, October 04, 2006

Happy there is a second round. That means people will be working for the candidates for four more weeks and earning a few real. I hope lula does not promise 3 chickens in every house. Some people vote for the promise and not the action.

Lula thwarted
written by Babuji, October 05, 2006

Brazil's election scene seems as rumbustious as India's. Lula is the first President from the left, and because of his profile is the first to be weel known in India and other countries. Hope he wins the 2nd round with the Heloise and other voters switching to him. Can someone explain which are the right wing parties, and how is that Alckmin's centrist party has done much beter than Lula's PT party, in state and senate elections, but why that does not translate into strong support for Alckin as Prez ?

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