Brazzil

Wow. Interesting article.

The Chinese are the new Jews, with their own currency to boot. The urbanization of China is just in its infancy, same way as China's deforestation and demineralization of Africa and SE Asia is just beginning. The bigger the Jews, the harder they will fall.

byebye bush babie, hellow Beijing......hehehe!

look thyis stupid guy ,he thinks the brazil and the south america,with the best resources in the world will let the chinese tell us how to rule our lives.i dont know wath hapens with his mind but he could be aa journalist or something else,but he dont knows nothing about strategy.we have all reesources we need,wee dont need the chinese the chinese in the years that will come will desperadly need us.to feed theyr people.to bring them water.i think we dont have need to made trade pacts with other blocs not on this terms.but iff we waith we will rule the trade pacts.

Hey Clegg, your real name is Borat isn't it? (is your sis available tomorrow night??)

in relationship to the iraqi dinar, all other currencies will either hyperinflate out or become meaningless ...

oneness,
dh

http://www.investorsiraq.com/showthread.php?t=30006

A fool and his money are soon parted. Who owns the wealth of Brazil? You have 20% of the population determining the selling of Brazil. China are an honorable people, for thousands of years they have been global traders, similarly as the Jews. . .the Chinese equally are about honor and family. But after four thousand years of doing business they have developed a certain businesss acumen. Brazil is 400 years old and is being betrayed by twenty percent of it s population. The Chinese have an expression, 'first you f**k me and then I f**k you'. They will let you have the first economic advantage of the trade, demonstrating to yourself how wise and smart you have been, and then when you return the second time some how something has changed, the profit margin. I used to teach the Chinese English and they in turn taught me Ruby, Sapphire and Jade. . .the price at the mine unless you are family the Chinese will tell you nothing, ask a question the answer invariably is 'oh I don't know' the answer could be next door, but it is to the Chinese foolish to help someone else achieve advantage. . .I sold Jade out of Burma, representing Thai Chinese gem traders that happened to be my students, interestingly they hold the teacher in great honor and would bow upon entering class. . .so I was told the 'real' price of the goods from the mine. In turn I helped them make a million dollars their first year out in the U.S. It became evident there was more money to be made dealing stones then teaching. It is an ancient profession with ancient psychologies . . .one of the favorite ploys was after an hour of haggling over a hank of Burmese Jade beads a price would be reached, smiles would be exchanged and as the check was being written let us say for $4,475 they would stop as you were packing up your wares and say, 'no too much, I give you $,4000 you want or not? No? Take, Go, I dont want. So i learned some profit was better than none and it was better to walk out with $4,000 than nothing. It is better to make a $100 than not to make $400; besides when you returned and they had done well, it was easier to tell them that the agreed price was the agreed price and 'dont try to 'f**k' me when you write the check. They would smile and we would shake hands. The Chinese will never insult you, but they are sharks and will have 'kill' you if you are a fool.

It is an understatement to say that Chinese are smart business people, the Brazilians are children that will sell the farm for 'magic beans' if they do not come to understand the value of what they have. In business the Chinese will have the Brazilians for lunch. Also they prefer to speak in Chinese, thus the advantage of the global Chinese community, they just feel more at home drinking tea and using chop sticks and speaking Mandarin.

The Chinese will come, do not be so quick to sell. They need Brazil, Brazil does not need China.

Not nice for Brazil, Mercosur and/or Latam countries ! smile

Quite curious how the writer changes his mind as to what currency Brazil should tie !!!!!
A country cannot change its mind every 3, 4 or 5 years for the link ot its currency.

This said the article is a bad fairy tale ! Quite similar to the fairy tale of the BRIC, where in fact Brazil should not belong, since it barely has one third of the economic growth of the 3 others countries !!!!

Very long term projections and vision have always been proven wrong when written by supposed "economists" !

Russia empire should still exists if one reads their visions of 3 decades ago. Wrong.
The world should have by now a shortage of energy. Wrong.
The world should have billions of people in hunger due to the shortage of food. Wrong.
30/40 years ago or so, at time of great economic growth in Brazil, the projections were also that by now the country should be a developed and wealthy country. Wrong !
Same for Argentina. Just as wrong.
Same for the Middle East oil producing countries after the firsts oil shocks and the visions for the next 20 years. Wrong !
Same for Iran. Wrong.
Same for Nigeria with all their oil. Wrong ! Here is a large oil producing nation...where foreign debts have been cancelled not so long ago !!!!! Funny.....but true !

Curiously all the Asians currencies are strong against the US$, but not really against the Euro in the last 5 years !!!!!!
Same for the Brazilian Real !
In my humble view I much prefer to have my money in Euro and not in an Asian, Middle East, Russian or Latam country.
Why ? Because every 5 to 10 years ALL these countries devalue their currencies. LOOK at Argentina, Brazil, the Asian crisis and the Russian bankruptcy in 1998 !
NONE....ABSOLUTELY NONE OF THESE CURRENCIES GAINED AGAINST THE EURO SINCE 1998. THEY ALL DEVALUED BY MANY TIMES THEIR 1997 EXCHANGE RATE !!!!

SIMPLE EXAMPLE, THE BRAZILIAN REAL WHICH WAS at AROUND 1 EURO AND IS NOW AT 2,80 DESPITE IT RECENT STRENGTH SINCE EARLY 2005 !

iN MY VIEW, KEEP YOUR MONKEY CURRENCIES AND TIE THEM TO WHATEVER YOU WANT....BUT NOT THE EURO !!!!!

I have a hard time believing this article was written by an informed, intelligent adult. China is a repressive dictatorship that has had amazing growth over the last 20 years due to its huge population of industrious workers, a government that recognized that communism was a pathetic joke and became raw capitalistic many years ago, using its labor force like the beginning of the industrial revolution 2 centuries ago (child labor, horrible working conditions, environmental devestation etc...think of Dickens England) after 20 years of growth they are approaching the economy of France in size and have a percapita income aprox imately 1/20th of the U.S. In 30-50 years they would be a superpower if they were not inevitably to implode. This writer has spent time in China and studied the culture and history....a revolution of monumental proportions is comming to China..the only question is when. maybe 10 years ..maybe 20 ...but China will not sustain its current growth rate with its top down , antidemocratic, unjust, environmentally fatal , and fundamentally immoral system.
The writer of this article is amazingly uniformed...The United States is not alone as a trading bloc...NAFTA is 400 million strong and is sure to grow to eventually include many South American conuntries. His anti american bias is so strong he cannot bring himself to see the complete folly of Brazil rejecting membership in this trading bloc. His decision to change from his preference of the Euro is wise...Europe is an old man that is in its last generation of world leadership in any arena...its negative population growth will simply render it irrelevent in the future and its socialistic tendencies will strangle it as it ages.. its only population growth comes from Muslim immigration that not only refuses to integrate into its culture but is at was with European values and traditions.
I only hope that the writer of this article is not representative of the thinking of the majority of decision makers in Brasil. What a incredible shame and waste of energy to marry to a dying corpse or a tyrannical dictatorship enriching itself at the expense of a billion disposable souls. Many could expand on all the reasons that are obvious and self evident to the reasonable man. ...but let me say it clearly..BRAZIL WILL PROSPER WHEN ITS INTERNAL CORRUPTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED, WHEN IT ENBRACES FREE TRADE AND FREEMARKET S, and WHEN IT EMBRACES TRADING PARTNERS THAT WILL DO THE SAME!

The Chinese 'gotta' eat. Brazil has the agronomics, the land the climate. The ancient aramaic word for war is 'milchama' its root is 'lechem' which means bread. . .all war is ultimately about food. North and South America are the greatest producers of food on the planet. . .you 'gotta' eat. . .you cant eat gold.

The United States is not alone as a trading bloc...NAFTA is 400 million strong and is sure to grow to eventually include many South American countries. His anti american bias is so strong he cannot bring himself to see the complete folly of Brazil rejecting membership in this trading bloc.

His decision to change from his preference of the Euro is wise...Europe is an old man that is in its last generation of world leadership in any arena..

… let me say it clearly..BRAZIL WILL PROSPER WHEN ITS INTERNAL CORRUPTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED, WHEN IT ENBRACES FREE TRADE AND FREEMARKET S, and WHEN IT EMBRACES TRADING PARTNERS THAT WILL DO THE SAME!


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Ricardo Amaral wrote: The United States has ignored South America since the demise of the Soviet Union. The Brazilian government instead of crying over spilled milk decided to find new markets for Brazilian goods around the world.

In the meantime the United States lost any prestige that the US had in Brazil and Brazilian businessman have been going to China to do business for many years.
And the business people in Brazil are all learning how to speak Chinese today, and not the English language even though many business leaders in Brazil are fluent in the English language.

Argentina became a symbol in South America of what happens to your country when you follow the US lead and economic model about free trade, privatizations and so on….

Regarding Europe, you are completely misinformed and should read Jeremy Rifkin’s book “The European Dream.” Then come back and we can continue this conversation.

Reply to:

the truth - written by zimmermann

he thinks the brazil and the south america,with the best resources in the world will let the chinese tell us how to rule our lives.

…. but he dont knows nothing about strategy


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Ricardo C. Amaral wrote: The United States is ruling your lives today.

Every time anyone makes an extra buck in South America as soon as they can they send it to the United States for safekeeping instead of investing in you own countries.

Reply to:
Chinese Fortune Cookies - written by aesaac

the Chinese equally are about honor and family. But after four thousand years of doing business they have developed a certain businesss acumen.

The Chinese will come, do not be so quick to sell. They need Brazil, Brazil does not need China.


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Ricardo C. Amaral wrote:

Business Week magazine had an article a few months ago about the most agile, adaptive and smart companies around the world, and in that list the magazine listed a number of Brazilian companies.

The Chinese are great businessman, but Brazilians learned to be sharp agile and also very good businessman when they had to survive month after month in a tremendously inflationary environment that only very good and very sharp business people could survive.

Believe me when I say it – the Brazilian businessman is as sharp and they can play ball with the best around the world.

Brazil needs the vast market in China to be able to sell its commodities, goods, and services.

Both countries are going to benefit from all the business that will be generated between China and Brazil in the coming years. It will be a win, win situation for both countries.


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Reply to: Four major powerful blocks of countries - Europe, United States, Middle East, and Asia !!!!!! - written by ch.c..

Not nice for Brazil, Mercosur and/or Latam countries !

Quite curious how the writer changes his mind as to what currency Brazil should tie !!!!!

Very long term projections and vision have always been proven wrong when written by supposed "economists"!

iN MY VIEW, KEEP YOUR MONKEY CURRENCIES AND TIE THEM TO WHATEVER YOU WANT....BUT NOT THE EURO !!!!!


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Ricardo C. Amaral wrote: Your way of thinking about currencies is completely obsolete – you are basing your beliefs on the past and in the way things used to be – a time long gone.

I wrote many articles since 1998 about Brazil adopting the euro as its new currency. When I started writing about that subject most people were not sure the euro system was going to work. Today we know that the euro is a great success story. And if you read many of my articles you will see that I had no doubt since the inception that the euro would be a success.

If you read many of my articles regarding Brazil adopting the euro – then you will have a better understanding of why Brazil should adopt the “New Asian Currency.”

If you read some of my articles then you would understand the amount of money that floats around the world on a daily basis – we are talking about over US$ 1.5 trillion dollars per day – and most countries don’t have the resources (currency reserves) to protect their currency if the big boys decide to kill your currency.

And by destroying your currency they can destroy the entire economy of your country. It is just a game of winner takes all.

Many years ago, when they were talking about creating a currency for South America – I even had a suggestion for a name of such a currency - “The Bankrupt.”

.

sorry 4 years ago is NOT so long ago...as you suggest !

And has Brazil not said there is a new era for them.....every time you have cut 3 zeroes to your currency ??????

And is the economic growth rate of Brazil, the lowest of ALL developing nations, a so long ago....or actual ?????
I let you chose your time frame, 1, 5, 10, 20 or 30 years !!!!!!!!

And outside of your multiple currency devaluations, has Brazil not said how sunny is their future during EVERY economic
boom ?????? Sadly the answer is......YESSSSSS ! But always proven wrong 2 or 3 years later !

Why do you believe that Brazil has been nicknamed : A BOOM AND BUST ECONOMY ???????

Just look at your recent and less recent economic history !!!!!

In a certain way, for an image, Brazil is like a bad boy who commited many wrong things and finally said.....by now
I will be a good guy !!!!!!!
Is this not what your criminals are saying when they are tried ?
Thus why your crime rates are growing at an astounding speed and worse with more horror and atrocities year after year ?????

Yesssss Brazil is a bad boy when compared to other similar countries ! And this....EVEN TODAY !!!!!

DONT YOU STILL IN 2007 HAVE THE WORLD HIGHEST RATE....AFTER INFLATION.....DESPITE HAVING CUT YOUR RATE BY 33 % ??? Yesssssss !
DONT YOU HAVE NEARLY A WORLD RECORD FOR YOUR WEALTH INEQUALITY ????? Yesssssss
DONT YOU HAVE WORLD RECORD FOR INTERESTS RATES CHARGED TO YOUR CORPORATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS ??????
Yesssssss, individuals are charged well over 50 % when inflation is below 4 %. On your overdrafts the rate is well above 100 % !!!! If you wish I can give you the official averages, made by your own government agencies and not by me !
ARE YOU NOT RANKED 122 out of 175 countries for the Doing Business rankings ????? Yesssss you are. Close to your rankings you have the African countries. Nothing to be proud of....for comparisons !!!!!

Sorry Buddy, the above details are not exhaustive, I could continue for hours !!!!


And sorry for you Buddy, these are actual facts and not past facts. And I bet these facts will remain into your future because no one cares of your society injustice, AND CERTAINLY not your lawmakers and politicians who are the ones who benefit the most of such injustice in 2 ways : 1) through their legal income, one of the world highest and 2) through their daily corruption practices !!!!

Brazil wether you like it or not is a country of the past and not for the future. I should not be alone to believe so.
Just think about your criminals and robbers : 90 % of the time it is due to money one way or another. And why do they act in such a way ?
Exactly because they dont see a future in your country !

the americans rule over our people.

yes you are right,buyt the realy truth is .one occidental empire rules over us.not a oriental empire,and like england,italy,spain ,and portugal,they will fall down,and another occidental nation will rule over all of us.but never one oriental civilization,our jude crhistian occidental civilization is very democratic every nation with enought power military and economic ,can rule.by the power of course,and in the times tath will come you will see that just satrt to think why our civilization have so many nukes.in wath par of world is the major targets,why we create israel.israel is the stress point .to point our borders,just to say our civilization will not go back.the base of our religion(i am a crhistian say we are the same shape of god and our civilization will rule over the world(look im not a fanatic i just make an apointment), think about this and you will see ....your idea is good.but you are just think in money,and you forgeet the base of all our civilization.

We all know that the Pacific Rim is the top priority. That this may be the Chinese Century, as the 19th was the British and the Twentieth the American.

If you are talking about changing the world´s reserve currency, that´s one thing. Right now the dollar is under fire from the Euro in that regard.

But if you are talking about Brazil not having total power over its own currency, adopting a currency from elsewhere, that´s impossible. If Brazil does not have total control over its money, the current plan cannot work. Handling deficit spending is like a difficult gymnastic feat, not possible if you are subject to some foreign central bank that has its own national interests to serve.

Ricardo Amaral wrote: The United States has ignored South America since the demise of the Soviet Union. The Brazilian government instead of crying over spilled milk decided to find new markets for Brazilian goods around the world.

In the meantime the United States lost any prestige that the US had in Brazil and Brazilian businessman have been going to China to do business for many years.
And the business people in Brazil are all learning how to speak Chinese today, and not the English language even though many business leaders in Brazil are fluent in the English language.

Think it's safe to say that you are over-generalizing. And today, the U.S. economy and brazil's trade relations with the U.S. affect it more than any other foreign country.

And today, the U.S. economy and brazil's trade relations with the U.S. affect it more than any other foreign country.

You say that based on what? For what I heard the percentage of brazilian's economy that depends on the US is minor. But I assume you have data to back this claim, do you?

Reinforces the idea I had that Abe Razilion is a ringer, like the tongue-in-cheek Flat Earth guys. No one could be that stupid. Especially someone that took the time to learn idiomatic English and has internet. But this is at least the second time that he has gone over the top, I´m suspicious. Only other possibility is such raging hate that it has clogged up his ability to be rational.

The above post
written by Ric, 2007-03-04 23:43:08

Reinforces the idea I had that Abe Razilion is a ringer

Ric, I've thought it all along. Hard to believe anyone can be as stupid as he makes himself look.

Asian Currency - written by Ric,
But if you are talking about Brazil not having total power over its own currency, adopting a currency from elsewhere, that´s impossible. If Brazil does not have total control over its money, the current plan cannot work.


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Reply By Ricardo C. Amaral

I don’t agree with you.

It’s not impossible.

The relationship that the Brazilian Central Banker would have towards the New Asian Currency it is similar to the relationship that the Central Bankers of each European country has towards the euro.

By the way, if Brazil had adopted the euro many years ago then the Brazilian economy would be in better shape and today the Central Bank rate in Brazil would much lower than the current 13 percent rate.


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Its not all too clear how long the Euro will last, some of its weakest members are talking about regaining soveriengty over their monetary policy. Also you forgot to mention another global currency Gold, its becoming a 4th currency in the geopolitical landscape. Many countries are starting to increase their reserves such as Russia. A common currency back with nothing is doomed. The Euro and all currencies around the world are inflating, printing their money at or close to double digit rates. I don't know how long this will last but there will be a race to the bottom for every currency because all paper money equals zero. This is why we see wild fluctuations in currencies today. Look at recently how the yen rose against the dollar. Nobody wants a high currency. All currencies will be shaken to the core and gold will soon be realize as real money and a global currency, since it was de-link from the dollar in 1971

If Brazil had adopted the Euro they would have sold less as the cost of goods would have been more expensive. Six of one half dozen of the other. The Real has increased in strength and value by nearly half in the past four years and yet its exports have increased, excepting cars and iron ore. One billion in reserves, the Real by all measure is doing quite well and apparently has earned global economic respect.

Also I just want to point out that Brazil is actually trying to protect their currency, with the overnight lending rate. This is what i mean by countries not wanting a high currency rate. Look at what happen in Thailand about a month or two ago. It was one of the most fastest appreciating currencies in Asia, and speculators and investors pulled their capital for fear of the currency appreciating too fast or thinking its over valued. This leads to crisis that can spread to other countries. Brazil has been slowly lowering rates to keep the exhange rate at a certain parity with the dollar. Once gold becomes a global currency for all countries, the world will be totally different from what it is now. Global trade is nothing new. It doesn't make sense for countries to rush and export their goods and service off shore, this is just my opinion. These goods and services should be used in the domestic economy for development of the nation state. Brazil should use its natural resources for internal development, instead of exporting away all its natural resources and goods and services for THE NEW ASIAN CURRENCY. Who wants someone elses paper?

One example I was thinking about was St. Vincent, St. Lucia, and several other small island countries that use the same currency. The first thing that comes to mind is why they are not all federated together, but even leaving that question aside, they do ok with one currency as long as it is stable and tied to the dollar; but it does generate some friction and polemic, and I don´t think it could hold together if they were much larger.

On a practical basis, I just can´t see Brazil surrendering its sovereignty to that extent. Brazil can switch to the Euro or other currency for its debts and accounts receiveable, but there will always have to be a national currency. The people running policy here finally got it right, and the result for the last ten years has been stability. There was a time when Brazil couldn´t even print their own bank notes, it was farmed out to LaRue and company.

Europe, Asia, North America, South America, Asia Minor. . .an alliance of North America and South America would rule the economic world. . .odd how Africa is never mentioned.

Just another example of my fellow Brazilians knowledge of the world. Come on Ricardo Amaral. Have you read the "Coming collapse of China" by Chang or "the Clash of Civilizations" by Samuel P. Huntington? The Chinese will never accept us as partners. Never! Brazil has to stop with this stupid idea that it can make its own way in the world. I will say it clearly to you: There is only one way out for Brazil, a closer relationship with North America and Europe. It is not Africa, Asia or South America (Mercosul) that will be our good strategic partners. This idea of yours come from those famous Marxist economists that are so common in our country. It is sad to see that this idea is still so strong in Brazil.

As an African American I consider this article to be the most interesting Ihave read on this site. The Unites States will have a serious fall because of the pending fall of the dollar. China and the Asian market may be a safeer place to be when the dollar fail..

I find some of the feedback from Brazilian distasteful most irrational. It reflects the fear and jealousy of some insecured Brazilians. That's a typical reaction from most irrational human being of one race against another. Oversea Chinese has suffered much in silience but like any hard working people, we depend on ourselves to feed our family and not relies on government or others for hand out. It's the fear and negative jealousy that explain racial conflicts, ethnic violence, discrimination and racism not onlyn in Brazil but world wide.

I have no intention of interacting with negative Brazilians who think Chinese or any other race is out there to "use" Brazil. Sure Brazil do not need Chinese or anyone that deemed to be their "rivals" etc etc. As a matter of facts , nationalistic or right wing in every nations world wide think they don't need other in a one sided view, that feeling does not confine to just Brazil. It is a common problem world wide. Everyone has the right to choose who we play ball with, but don't complain other don't play ball with you when you choose not to play with them in the first place. That's human behavior of any racr or ethnicity.

Chinese has suffered much poverty in the past and I don't think my Chinese ancestors expected other developed nations to help them and have learned to help themselves through much hardship few people know the suffering and sorrow. Like many Chinese, I treat people of any race or nationality as fellow Human being and I don't think Chinese has negative view on other race as expressed by some people in this forum. I am too busy focusing on my work to improve myself and do not waste valuable time thinking and speaking ill of people of other background.

Anyone and any nation can become successful to improve the quality of living etc and that does not confine to China or Brazil. In fact there is much symbiosis among human being and countries in social and commercial interaction.The devleopment of any country will benefit other in return unless you want to isolate yourself from others. I am sure there are many capable and rational people in Brazil ( like any countries ) to build a better nation.

There is basically not much difference between people of any race or nationalities. We all have the same desire to have a decent living standard and have a happy family and we need a stable peaceful environment.

The world is still changing rapidly and it will reach an equilibrium when the gap between the rich and poor nations is getting closer. I hope that day will come and every human being will have a decent standard of living , not just Brazilians or Chinese. I hope in that time, which most of us may not witness , there will be less of negative talk on people of different nationalities or race and speak as earth people.

It's not only the Chinese that form some kind of network etc etc. This happen to people of any race or religion. This is a natural behavior due to common backgound in language, culture that make communication hence cooperation eaiser. Likewise, we network with our own families and brothers more closely than "outsiders", don't we ? That why we see Muslim form their own cooperative business organization, networks, Brazilians form their own business network too , so has the Europeans forming their own Unions for economic reasons. Within the European Union, the English inside England and outside England has their own networking especially in USA, Australia and New Zealand. That's OK because that is natural process in man kind.Don't each of us has a network of friends, colleagues etc with common interests or goals to share ?

Brazilans living on other countries too embrace their motherland and form their own network for they know each other better with common backgorund.

By the way, I was not brone in China but a proud citizen in New Zealand. I worked for an giant international corporation and is therefore a "citizen" of that borderless powerful entity that spread its tentacles world wide. Some giant corporations are in fact becoming more powerful and influencial than some government world wide.

I wish Brazil every success to improve the lives of the poorer section of the population.

Good bye

I do not see this the way you do. I hope you are correct. Regarding Beijing, I will say that China is currently facing similar problems to Brazil. People there also live in some sort of denial and do not want to change their government. The question is how far can China go with this regime. I believe that not very far. I do hope for all the best for China.

Thank you for your answer,

An admirer of traditional Chinese culture.

Ludwig Van Beethoven

Meu amigo Amaral ; li todo o artigo ..... muinto bem escrito .... voce nao faz justica ao Brasil com o seu grande
potencial e possibilidades ; o Brasil tem problemas basicos todo brasileiro sabe ; TENHO UMA SUGESTAO ; PONHA
SEU PREVILEGIADO TALENTO DESSECANDO ESSES PROBLEMAS BRASILEIROS E COM SUAS AGUDAS SUGESTOES ; projete ;monteiro lobato fez aparecer a Petrobras ; o Brasil tem que aprender a competir , se defender , e ser agressivo em busca de novos mercados ; do Brasil produzir embraer na china otimo suprir o que o mundo quer grande ! o mais e ,
mercados aprender algumas ideias com a china koreia e mesmo com usa ; mas ligar o seu destino com outro paiz
NUNCA !!! Eu confio no BRASIL !! e desejo a este grande paiz paz e a aventura de ser sempre indepedente !
harolto

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Asian Currency - written by Ric, 2007-03-03

Handling deficit spending is like a difficult gymnastic feat, not possible if you are subject to some foreign central bank that has its own national interests to serve.


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Ricardo C. Amaral – Reply to Ric

Are you saying that it is impossible for a country, any country or a country such as the United States to run huge deficit spending year after year and being financed by the central banks from around the world mainly China’s Central Bank?


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written by Informant, 2007-03-05

Its not all too clear how long the Euro will last, some of its weakest members are talking about regaining sovereignty over their monetary policy. Also you forgot to mention another global currency Gold, its becoming a 4th currency in the geopolitical landscape.


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Ricardo C. Amaral – Reply to Informant

The euro will last a long time. You can bet on that.

I did not forget to mention gold.

I have mentioned in various articles the breakdown of the foreign exchange reserves that central banks hold. Gold is the other piece of central bank reserves – it is a piece in itself.

Gold is gold and it does not require any further explanation, since when you check the reserves of any country you can see the amount of gold that is being held as part of the countries’ reserve.

But when the central banks mention the foreign exchange reserves that they are holding most people want to know which currencies make up that part of the reserve.


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written by Ric, 2007-03-05

One example I was thinking about was St. Vincent, St. Lucia, and several other small island countries that use the same currency. The first thing that comes to mind is why they are not all federated together, but even leaving that question aside, they do ok with one currency as long as it is stable and tied to the dollar; but it does generate some friction and polemic, and I don´t think it could hold together if they were much larger.

On a practical basis, I just can´t see Brazil surrendering its sovereignty to that extent. Brazil can switch to the Euro or other currency for its debts and accounts receiveable, but there will always have to be a national currency.


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Ricardo C. Amaral – Reply to Ric

If you took the time to read many of the articles that I wrote over the years where I give all the reasons why Brazil should adopt the euro – I wrote about 10 articles on that subject since December of 1998 – then you would understand why Brazil should adopt the new Asian currency.

Countries such as France, Germany and many other European countries gave up their currency in favor of the euro – and do you think these people did not know what they were doing?

Or are you implying that Brazilians knows better than the French and the Germans?

I don’t think so……..

As you said: “there will always have to be a national currency.”
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Yes – the “New Asian Currency.”

By the way, this “New Asian Currency” will be the currency of China, Japan, South Korea and so on….

Do you think that all these people in Asia also don’t know what they are doing?


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written by Ludwig Van Beethoven, 2007-03-05

Just another example of my fellow Brazilians knowledge of the world. Come on Ricardo Amaral. Have you read the "Coming collapse of China" by Chang or "the Clash of Civilizations" by Samuel P. Huntington? The Chinese will never accept us as partners. Never! Brazil has to stop with this stupid idea that it can make its own way in the world. I will say it clearly to you: There is only one way out for Brazil, a closer relationship with North America and Europe. It is not Africa, Asia or South America (Mercosul) that will be our good strategic partners. This idea of yours come from those famous Marxist economists that are so common in our country. It is sad to see that this idea is still so strong in Brazil.


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Ricardo C. Amaral – Reply Ludwig Van Beethoven


Yu said on your posting: “This idea of yours come from those famous Marxist economists that are so common in our country. It is sad to see that this idea is still so strong in Brazil.”

First, I don’t read any Marxist economists and never did in the past.

Second, this has been my idea for a long time and I don’t know of anybody else that has been suggesting that Brazil should adopt the euro. I have been writing on that subject since 1998 before the European countries adopted the euro.

And you are a fool if you think that the euro is a Marxist idea.

You also said: “Brazil has to stop with this stupid idea that it can make its own way in the world. I will say it clearly to you: There is only one way out for Brazil, a closer relationship with North America and Europe.”

Brazil has a close relationship with Europe, and it will continue in the future, and I can give you many reasons why. But you are completely wrong about Asia. Brazil has a relationship with China that is growing by leaps and bounds.

Today, most Brazilian executives are learning Chinese, and the schools in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are completely full with people trying to learn the Chinese language. And for many years already most Brazilian company executives go to China when they go to a business trip and not to the United States.

China is where the business opportunities are and not in the United States with a few exceptions.

By the way, your mindset is frozen in the past with this Marxist talk – today China is giving a lesson to the United States regarding what capitalism is all about.

An association with China is where the future of the Brazilian economy lies, and not with the United States.

Just for you information, since you appear to be clueless – I just spoke with my uncle in Brazil and he did not realized that his vista to come to the United States had expired, he wanted to come to the US on this coming week for a visit – but when he went to the American consulate to get his new visa the American consulate made his appointment for 5 months from now – the earliest date they had available for my uncle to get his visa to be able to come to the United States was at the end of June 2007.

After I spoke with other people about this visa problem for people to come to the United States – I found out that this is the normal procedure that the United States has installed in Brazil and everybody has to wait from 5 to 6 months before they can get a visa to visit the United States.

To go to China Brazilians have no problem in getting a visa.

Why waste time with the United States and all its bureaucracy and red tape when there is no problem in going to Asia, a place where the real action is happening anyway.

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In this world, small places, that use the US dollar. Not much the US can do about it, nor should they want to. It´s in their best interest to have billions in circulation offshore, since all fiat currencies are really just i.o.u.´s in kind(not redeemable in metal).

But for a large country, the government has to have a say in policy, not just use someone else´s paper money and let someone else set policy. If the idea is that Brazil is going to be a full partner in an Asian currency, that´s a big leap. The Chinese and others are going to have you for lunch.

And the USA and Brazil to a much smaller degree, the whole system is a massive house of cards. How would Brazil handle fractional banking and instruments of the fed. treasury, if subject to Asian approval?

Talking about it is helpful, but four words sum this thesis up: Not Going to Happen.

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written by Ric, 2007-03-16 - How would Brazil handle fractional banking and instruments of the fed. treasury, if subject to Asian approval?


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Ricardo C. Amaral – in the manner that France, Germany and the other members of the European Monetary Union handle their affairs regarding Euroland.

It will be no different than Euroland, but instead of having countries such as France, Germany and so on…The New Asian Monetary Union will have instead countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, Brazil and so on….

You will understand a little more how the entire system will be implemented when you read my next article since I will be giving further explanations and laying out the steps to achieve that goal. Hopefully the article it will be ready for publication by next week.


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written by Robert L Birt, 2007-03-08 - As an African American I consider this article to be the most interesting Ihave read on this site. The Unites States will have a serious fall because of the pending fall of the dollar. China and the Asian market may be a safeer place to be when the dollar fail..


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Ricardo C. Amaral – Reply to Robert L Birt

Did you know that in November of 2006 Beijing hosted a massive China-Africa forum, which was attended by heads of state from 48 of Africa's 53 nations?

China is very interested in developing the resources of African countries.

Since you mentioned that you are an African American then I would suggest you read my article published in June 2003 – “Brazil and the Angolan Connection”

http://www.brazzillog.com/2003/html/articles/jun03/p133jun03.htm


When that article was published I did receive many emails from African Americans who enjoyed reading that article and later I also found out that the article had been republished in other African American magazines.


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I love Brasilian music and am Asian , Malaysian and live in the US.

I think there is a simplistic view of Chinese here. I live and have worked among the overseas Chinese. The Chinese are clannish, cold and ‘guanxi’ networks are closed to outsiders. The current ethos is very thin even amongst kin let alone within ethnicity. Ethnocentrism is very high amongst the Chinese which will be a culture shock for Brazilians and their intrinsic higher degree of tolerance for diversity. Chinese are also look down on darker skin peoples thought they will not tell you directly. So China’s courtships of South America and Africa is really only pragmatic, nothing to do with respect other than business and resources.

They respect the Western ‘white’ races more than the brown or black ones. So you guys can stop dreaming. And stop looking for role models always outside but look within yourselves for strength . By that same token stop being entrapped in this victim psychology of blaming imperialists and realize that weakness comes from within not without.

Also China’s rise isn’t so much about being a socialist role model for Latin America. Its not the system but the Chinese’ innate drive and hard work. But it has its limitations. China is still a top down country, and overseas Chinese are wealthy in ‘top-down’ crony businesses with the partners and a cosy nexus with Malays and Indonesians as rulers or government officials who will provide licenses to the Chinese to log, deplete rainforests, trade in commodities such as sugar or build resorts in return for kickbacks or being compensated as sleeping partners. Also check whose is behind the human trafficking arms and drugs in South East and Holland, and why South East Asian governments are oft on the SLOC in Myanmar and its ethnic Chinese generals involved in this business. So don’t be fooled .

India and its diaspora are successful not in commodities or property like the overseas Chinese but in the knowledge economy and renowned in global managerial prowess. Just check out links below.

There is far more in common between China and Malaysia concerning state owned enterprises (SOEs) than meets the proverbial eye. Both have inefficiencies, and our own government linked companies that spawn 'top-down' crony capitalism. In other words China is like Malaysia in wealth creation if not worse and more prone to corruption.

China's and Malaysia's stock markets, ROIs trail far behind India's. China's banks have non performing loans of 40-50% while India has only 4%, being more transparent and better regulated.

As a matter of fact Indian companies are growing faster and better than even global MNCs today, with no bail outs in the last 5 years . Indian companies have better IPR and they can raise and buy western companies much more easily than China or Malaysia can, because Indian managers are globally respected, and their acquisitions enjoy better - indeed stunning profits, not just growth per se.

India's billionnaires are 'bottom-up' truly entrepreneurial, with no government help and thrive globally. The same cannot be said for China and Malaysia because of 'top-down' government involvement or connections in 'crony capitalism'.

In short for innovation, techno-entrepeneurship, and global success, it appears that 'bottom-up' risk takers thrive , and not the 'top-down' state connected ilk who are merely infrastructure builders, commodity traders and manufacturers .

For more information see links below that predicted India to grow faster than China in a different way. Yasheng Huang of MIT and author of 'Selling China':

Yale Globalonline:
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=6887

Harvard:
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/3604.html

For the facts on the rest

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/30/magazines/fortune/IndiavsChina_pluggedin.fortune/

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=157398

http://future.iftf.org/2004/01/peter_drucker_o.html

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/Economy/
Indicators/India_as_managerial_number_one/articleshow/msid-996321,curpg-1.cms

http://ict.satw.ch/SPIP/article.php3?id_article=44

INDIA HAS MOST BILLIONAIRES IN ASIA: FORBES




Look carefully at the Forbes 2007 data to see if China is the only country to always hog the the radar NOR Chinese being the most validly successful in global entrepreneurism in the knowledge economy as indicated in my reply to blackqden above and the active links following it.

In fact India and its human capital talent are doing much better in global markets of the knowledge economy , have better performing world class companies listed in the NASDAQ and NYSE in very competitve countries, with no affirmative action whatsoever , nor quanxi, they enjoy better profits, raise more money ( no government links nor capital) and completely Indian owned and Indian managed unlike China's.

India is 'bottom up' and China like Malaysia is 'top down'. Both can be functional and dysfunctional with the rapid onslaught of change and globalization. One isn't better than the other. One size doens't fit all , and the process of wealth generation and creation is an artefact of the dimensions of spirituality, culture and social values .

Let's try to deal with the newer, more complete and objective facts. Indeed let the facts speak for themselves. Also compare China, India, Brazil and Malaysia on the 'GINI Coefficient' that looks at the gap between the richest and have nots. You would be suprised. I will say no more. Check it out yourself.


Friday, March 09, 2007
Wealth

FORBES: INDIA HAS MOST BILLIONAIRES IN ASIA

REUTERS

New York, March 9: The world's richest are getting younger and richer with more Russians and Indians cropping up among the 946 people on Forbes magazine's 2007 billionaires list unveiled on Thursday.

The number of billionaires is 19 per cent higher than last year when there were 793, and their total net worth grew 35 per cent to $3.5 trillion, the magazine said.

The average billionaire's age fell by two years to 62, and 60 per cent started with very little. Two-thirds of those on the list were richer, with net worth up for nearly everyone in the top 50.

"This is the richest year ever in human history," said Forbes Chief Executive Steve Forbes. "Never in history has there been such a notable advance."

Among those joining the list are Howard Schultz, the founder of Starbucks, which pioneered the $3 cup of coffee, and former Walt Disney boss Michael Eisner.

Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates was the richest man for the 13th straight year, with $56 billion, followed by Warren Buffett, chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., with $52 billion. Mexican telecoms tycoon Carlos Slim remained No. 3, with $49 billion.

Schultz is 840th on the list and worth $1.1 billion. Eisner is 891st and worth $1 billion.

In China, Yan Cheung, chairwoman of Nine Dragons Paper, made history as China's richest person and was one of three self-made women born in the communist country to debut this year. She is worth $2.4 billion and is 390th on the list.

Russia's Star Rising

Russia climbed to No. 3 in country rankings with 53 billionaires, two less than Germany, which has long held the runner-up spot in the billionaire stakes behind the United States.

But the total worth of the Russians surpassed the Germans, at $282 billion versus $245 billion, Forbes said. The average age of Russia's billionaires was 46.

In Asia, India had the highest number of billionaires, overtaking Japan, which for two decades had held the region's top spot.

India had 36 billionaires worth a total $191 billion while Japan's 24 billionaires were worth $64 billion, the magazine said.
http://www.financialexpress.com/latest_full_story.php?content_id=157222

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Atilla posted the following threads: “Be careful of Your Blind Spots” and “Reality check again on Asia with a fine grain perspective”


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March 20, 2007

Ricardo C. Amaral – Reply to Atilla


Based on your above posting, It seems to me that you are from India.

At the end of 2006 the latest book by John Naisbitt was published here in the USA –
“Mind Set!” – Over the years I had the opportunity to read all the books of his Megatrend series – I always found his books to be very informative, and the only source that I can recollect of reading about the “Overseas Chinese”. On his book “Megatrends Asia” he gave a superb job in describing the “Overseas Chinese” and that is the reason why I did quote him on the above article. Mr. Naisbitt captured on his book the essence of the “Overseas Chinese Global Network” and I could not rewrite his information without losing some of the impact of his writing. Mr. Naisbitt got the information about the “Overseas Chinese” just right.

I got a copy of Mr. Naisbitt book – Mind Set! – as soon as the book was available on our local bookstore. And starting on Page 208 he says the following: “China versus India -

Almost two of every three people in the world are either Chinese or Indian. The way it is now set up by the media, there is a great race under way between China and India to see which will be the leading power by the year 2100. But so far, China has outperformed India on every measure of economic growth and poverty reduction.

Whenever China is in someone’s mind, a concern about India is not far away. When I think of India, I somehow then think of Brazil. For so many years, we have talked about Brazil’s great potential, great future, but we have never seen it.

When China started its reforms in 1978, it was poorer than India. India has recently had a new economic vitality, but politics has now brought further economic reform to a halt. When I return to Shanghai, even after an absence of only a year, it is a dazzling experience: new buildings; old buildings torn down and replaced by building cranes and shortly new buildings, most likely skyscrapers, new restaurants, hotels, and shops opened. When I return to Delhi or Mumbai, however, it always seems the same as it was before, including the extraordinary number of beggars at every turn.

India has such great potential, such a great future – a great future that fails to come? We are still waiting. India’s economy is now growing at 8.4 percent. But where are the real economic reform?

…China took in $ 55 billion in foreign direct investment in 2004, compared with $ 5.3 billion for India. That almost 10-to-1 ratio favoring China over India has been the same for almost a decade.

China should also be seen as an economic leader over India because of its great infrastructure advantage. China has almost 20,000 miles of expressways, 10 times that of India, and 7 times as many conventional land telephones and mobile telephones per 1,000 people, though what infrastructure India does have today is a great improvement on the past. I remember giving a lecture in Mumbai (Bombay at the time) in the early 1990’s, and after learning that there was a ratio of 1 telephone operator for every 12 customers, I declared, to boisterous laughter, “That’s not a telephone system. That’s an employment program.”

…Judgments about India versus China suffer from the excitement of witnessing the growth in China. India’s GDP grew by an average of 5.6 percent a year in the 1980’s and by 5.8 percent a year from 1991 to 2003. China’s grew by 9.3 percent in the 1980’s and by an average of 9.7 percent between 1991 and 2003. In 2004 China overtook Japan to become the world’s third largest trader behind Germany and the United States.

The exchange rate of China’s currency, the renminbi (often referred to by its old name, the yuan), is a huge issue in the global economy. When was the last time you heard anyone get excited about the rupee?

…perhaps the most telling single statistic about the difference between India and China is female illiteracy rates. He quotes the World Bank as reporting that 87 percent of adult Chinese Women are literate, compared with India’s 45 percent. Adult literacy is 91 percent in China versus 57 percent in India.


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To JT,

I hope you don't take most of our comments about China in" Brazzil" so seriously. For your info, the majority of the world population are kind of concern about the decreasing value of humanity. I am kind of concern too with most of the discrimination and tragedy that befallen upon our fellow human beings elsewhere on this planet earth. Like the way you suggested earlier, everyone of us will have our very own social networking contacts. However I just have one question for you, is it true that The Government of China will control all of it's bussiness entity? I have lost contact with one Chinese Professor and I hope you will tell me more about it eventhough you are now in New Zealand.

An Open Important Question to Ricardo C. Amaral

You have proposed Brazil to join Euro and later changed you mind to that New Asian Currency.

Now the three "PIG European countries" hold their Euros and are asking for help to pay down their debts. Will Brazil pay the bill if Brazil was so stupid to listen to you to join Euro? EU was not smart by not listening to you to let Brazil into the game. You have written to EU to beg for the Euro membership into the Euro zone, haven't you?

I have told you that the world will come to China to ask for money. Look at what is happening nowadays. Yuan will rule!