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Brazil: Economic Boom - Political Gloom PDF Print E-mail
2007 - August 2007
Written by John Fitzpatrick   
Sunday, 12 August 2007 12:39

A Brazil Carrefour supermarket cashier I recently went into a big supermarket in a down-market shopping center in São Paulo on a Sunday afternoon to buy a laptop computer. The place was teeming. On one side, families were queuing up at the cash desks with trolleys filled with food and other items. The electronics section, where I bought my computer, was so busy that I had to wait 45 minutes to get a receipt as sales staff were literally queuing up to type in their orders in the sales system.

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Comments (16)Add Comment
Brazil: Economic Boom - Political Gloom
written by João da Silva, August 13, 2007
I like the picture posted along with this article. The good smiling lady in it is holding a pack of toilet tissues,along with (I think) cleaning material.Very nice.

Mexican billionaire, Carlos Slim, has huge investments in Brazil, particularly in the telecommunications sector. Lula called on Mexican businessmen to take part in the Accelerated Growth Program (PAC) which aims to invigorate Brazil's creaking infrastructure. However, he came back with nothing concrete from his meeting with Mexico's President Felipe Calderon.



I dont think that Carlos Slim would be interested in participating in PAC.Probably, he doesnt know what the heck this PAC is and got confused with ANAC. However, I hope Carlos would give a cell phone free for the lady and her family in the picture.

Not surprised to hear that our Prez´s meeting with Felipe Calderon was a big bust.Probably, Calderon was giving a big speech in Spanish which our Prez didnt understand and ours replied in Portuguese at length,which Felipe didnt understand either. However, my compliments to both of them for keeping the bilateral talks active and lengthy. Certainly, we cannot sub estimate their capacities.
Osama Bin Lula...
written by brazilian dude, August 13, 2007
doesen't fit the definition of a tax-and-spend liberal; he is a tax-and-embezzle wannabe dictator.His famous "deixa como está para ver como é que fica " quote define his "administration".
I hope the Mexicans...
written by brazilian dude, August 13, 2007
give us a nice, resounding "get lost". Only by getting boycotted by foreign investors will we be able to get some light shed on the absurd conditions of our infrastructure deficincies and lack of encouragement to business. If poor joes get shafted along with the middle class due to lack of jobs and foreign investment, Bin Lula will be up against the wall.
...
written by dm, August 13, 2007
Tax/GDP ratio at 36-38%... Investments/GDP at less than 20%...some action needed. But in all fairness, we must give credit to the President that he allowed the non-political personnel to man the finance and economic matters during his first term. Plus the extraneous environment in terms of super bumper commodities cycle helped Brazil leap on the road to recovery. However, in his second term, it has been quite uneventful so far...no noise (except for aircrafts crashing) and grandiose PAC schemes....but no real action except for the selic rate cuts...expect much more from him.

dm
written by João da Silva, August 13, 2007
However, in his second term, it has been quite uneventful so far...no noise (except for aircrafts crashing) and grandiose PAC schemes....but no real action except for the selic rate cuts...expect much more from him.


I have a strange feeling that the rest of his second term is going to be on ohter grandiose schemes and lots of talks. In my opinion, there are 4 urgent actions needed to create a business friendly enviornment a) Tax reform b) Change in labor laws c) Thorough review of our Social security system d) Accountability of the elected and nominated officials.

I do not think any of these issues is a priority and right now, everybody seems to be pleased with him for taking the attitude "deixa como está para ver como é que fica "
(In case you do not our language, the translation is :Leave the things as they are to see how they will turn out to be in the future). In other words,the government is just reacting to events .
Brazil has such a great boom.......
written by ch.c., August 13, 2007
....that it lags ALL developing countries economic growth rate in the last 5 years.....except Haiti and San Salvador !!!!

In Brazil, buying in installment is like paying twice your purchased goods ! Despite 17 interests rates cuts, Brazil has still by far the highest rate.....after inflation.

If Brazil is in an economic boom, how should you then call the many other countries having 2 or 3 times higher economic growth rate than Brazil ?????

Boom boom...or......boom boom boom ?
To: Swiss Junkie
written by João da Silva, August 13, 2007
except Haiti and San Salvador !!!!


Your education is also poor. It is not San Salvador,but EL SAVADOR.

And it is not Boom,Boom,but Bum,Bum,Bum.

Bo is right, you can turn Christ into your enemy smilies/grin.gif
...
written by bo, August 14, 2007
d) Accountability of the elected and nominated officials.



I was listening intently and agreeing with every word...then I read the above, and you started my day off with a chuckle!! smilies/wink.gif
...
written by dm, August 14, 2007
The recent estimate for Brazil GDP growth revised upwards to 4.6% and inflation revised down to 3.62% for next 12 months- very much within the govt. target of 4.5%. So it is boom..... at least. But the problem is that it has been boom..bum...boom...bum- erratic growth pattern. Hope from here on, it is boom.boom..boom only...

Re the 2nd term, similar is the case in India. we have probably the best combination of a smart and focussed Prime MInister and (highly erudite) Finance Minister possible- but the coalition politics and various strong political lobbies are always there which come in way of taking any hard decisions...everybody has their own axe to grind- to protect their political turfs...

Therefore, the 2nd term has been much below expectations, Like Brazil, India is also in an auto pilot mode....things are just happening on their own....liberalization is simply irreversible and the private sector has taken it upon itself coming to terms with the reality of global competition...and they are doing great

Btw how much you pay for an auto loan or a FMCG goods loan in Brazil...?

dm
written by João da Silva, August 14, 2007
Btw how much you pay for an auto loan or a FMCG goods loan in Brazil...?


Since I havnt obtained these loans, I am unable to tell you with precision,as I guess it varies according to the credit rating of the people.I decided to a simulation with my bank over the Internet and find out . For Auto loans, it works out to be 1.72 % PER MONTH (22,7 % a year). On FMCG, it is around 2% a month (26.82% year). However, considering that the banks do have some mysterious and hidden charges, I would add at least 0.5% to the monthly interest rate.

Th other Brazilian bloggers may give a different rates from their personal experience and I dont think that the rates will be less than what I have given.

Now it is up you to figure out why the rates are so high in spite of the "low" inflation !btw, the personal saving accounts give you a return of less than 0.5% a month and so nobody wants to save for the rainy days!!
Bo
written by João da Silva, August 14, 2007
I was listening intently and agreeing with every word...then I read the above, and you started my day off with a chuckle!!


The idea was to cheer up your day smilies/grin.gif

The bad news of the day is regarding item (b) of my previous post. The are several entities,inclduing labor unions and (guess whom?) many Labor Tribunal members are already protesting about this idea. So I think it is not going to take place.

Another news is that around 226,000 temperory employees of the Federal government, who were nominated by the Governors and Mayors are going to be made permanent without the "concurso" (Entry Exam). That means item d) turns to be a real joke for obvious reasons.

I think the next 12 months will be spent watching the PT manipulating the masses to win the Municipal elections next year.

Dude may have something else to add.

You
...
written by bo, August 15, 2007
I think the next 12 months will be spent watching the PT manipulating the masses to win the Municipal elections next year.


Saw something very strange in the paper here the day before yesterday, the secretary of tourism in this state, who is a good friend of mine, and bigtime PT, as is this entire state, changed parties, as well as the mayor of the city, which is a huge Deda(the governor and loyal PT) supporter. It's as if they're (PT) strategically placing their vote-getters throughout other parties.
...
written by João da Silva, August 15, 2007
Saw something very strange in the paper here the day before yesterday, the secretary of tourism in this state, who is a good friend of mine, and bigtime PT, as is this entire state, changed parties, as well as the mayor of the city, which is a huge Deda(the governor and loyal PT) supporter. It's as if they're (PT) strategically placing their vote-getters throughout other parties.


Interesting info you have given. It all figures now. During the first mandate of Lula, many of the "radical" members of PT were expelled. Months before the reelection, there was a rumor that he would change his party or form a new one after he was elected again.I think that plan is being implemented now. Remember he said in the beginning of this year that he was no longer a leftist ? All his "amigos" are migrating to other parties to get the votes and form a new party after the Municipal elections are won by their candidates. I wonder if this plan will be a success in the three states in the South. There again, he doesnt need them.
Hmm,
written by brazilian dude, August 16, 2007
There's more on that. hang on a while.
real money growth of Brazil
written by sanjeev kumar suman, August 16, 2007


Prepare a table showing GDP growth & the real money growth for the last 5 years? of Brazil………
sanjeev kumar suman
written by João da Silva, August 19, 2007
real money growth of Brazil


You better ask our Geneva based Economic Commnetator of this site, ch.c. He does not charge consultation fees and gives reliable Stats.

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