Brazzil

Very interesting. Thank you.

What troubles me is that you don’t predict social reform. I suspect many of Brazil’s richest 10% would still agree with the racist nonsense of Euclides da Cunha.

People who believe that others are poor or violent because is their nature – rather than a result of economic and social conditions - are unlikely to foster social reform.

...the Lula predictions at the start of his first mandate :
- 5 % economic growth rate....minimum
- 10 millions new jobs....during his first mandate
- 400'000 MST resettlements

HE basically delivered half....only

- He also promised a reduction in corruption, but increased it....sharply !

And David Mendoza is dead right. Nothing will ever be done for true and deep social reforms.

That is the only prediction that one can GUARANTEE for this first halft century ...in Brazil!!!

It suprises me that an American sociology prof specializing Brazil would even feel the need to reassure readers that Lula will be out after only two mandates. The possibility of his staying in for a third is something not even remotely seen as feasible by anyone that I know. It worries me that stupid analogies between Lula and Chavez are being drawn in such a two-toned, one dimensional manner in the U.S. that the Lula staying on in the presidency can be seen as even a slight possibility.

Furthermore, his leaving or staying has nothing at all to do with Chavez, whom most Brazilians consider to be an amusing little dictator of a basically inconsequential banana republic. It has EVERYTHING to do with the fact that Lula and the PT have ZERO consensus to create such a radical revision of the constitution.

As for "corruption" and Transparency International, I'd like for the esteemed Dr. Ted to take a gander at TI's methodology and try to square that with anything he ever learned in his Methods of Social Research 101 class. TI is pseudo-scientific bulls**t, with prejudice masquerading as informed opinion. Brazilian's own opinions of corruption have little to nothing to do with TI and the way they are seen by gringos in general and this is not a major motivating force in the call for national reform.

(BtW, TI's "survey of knowledgeable people" is in fact a series of surveys, using completely different methodologies, which amount to opinion polls among foreign businessmen. Said polls are not comparable and said businessmen, in my experience, are not often very knowledgeable about the political or social affairs of the countries they are doing business in.)

As for crime and violence in SP, it amazes me that a sociologist with a PhD isn't wise to the way in which these stats can be jacked up or down at need by any reasonably competent municipal authority. To perceive a true decrease (or increase) in crime in SP and attribute that to whatever package of security measures is being implemented at the moment is to give statistics a degree of reality which I, for one, would not do.

In Rio, we are currently going through one of our most violent years EVER. But because most of the violence is being directed by the security forces against favela dwellers, we don't hear much about it in the media, do we? I bet you the public perception is that things have calmed down in Rio (even while the murder rate continues along on its merry way). How long do you figure it'll take, Dr. Ted, before gunshot victims showing up on the beaches get reclassified as "drownings" in order to maintain the illusion that Something Substantial is Being Done about crime?

A couple of years of dubious, doctored stats leading to a "decrease" in crime (down from an "increase" that was also largely made to order according to political needs) does not a great success in the realm of public security make, Dr. I'm suprised that I have to tell a fellow sociologist this simple fact of life.

Finally, it would be nice if anyonecould tell us what, exactly, does he mean when he makes his call for "social reform"? There's a black-box term if I ever heard one!

My predictions:

Less corruption? Less at the national level, but the average government worker will continue to be even more so.

Better policing and less crime? The police here have cultural problems, ie, they do little patrolling and lots of talking on corners with their buddies. They are good if you piss them off. Other than that, nothing will change except as poorer people earn more money, there will be less crime - nothing much at all due to better policing. The favelas will continue as is.

Economy? With 60% tariffs on imports and global crisis driven by a falling dollar and USA housing debacle, I expect a serious recession. Bubbles are like that - no one expects them and too many people are investing in Brazil without much knowledge. The Real has climbed from 3.8 to 1.8 per dollar and is still climbing. With Brazilian exports becomming more expensive and demand falling due to a lackluster global economy, I expect an overvalued bovespa to have a serious correction.

Next president? Its 3 years from now, who cares? All I can say with confidence is that any unknown PT candidate has a better chance in a national election than any PSDB candidate. My prediction is the PSDB never holds the presidency ever again. Not that I like him - but Ciro Gomez to me seems to have the best shot.

We'll have to agree to disagree there, Cuzão. I'm betting on the PSDB winning the presidency next election. In fact, it looks almost inevitable to me.

We'll have to agree to disagree there, Cuzão. I'm betting on the PSDB winning the presidency next election.

Tadeu, if I were you, I will wait and see the results of the Municipal elections next year before betting.With all due respects to you, of course!

We'll have to agree to disagree there, Cuzão. I'm betting on the PSDB winning the presidency next election.

The two leading PSDB candidates - Serra and Alckmin - have each lost in a presidential election by more than 20 points. Even worse for them, they are Paulistas which is a strong negative outside of SP. Their records in SP are far from impressive, IMHO. Neves is still unknown and unproven. Now that the poor - 80% of the country without carteira assinada and making less than R$1000 a month - have tasted victory and have made huge gains financialy with Lula. I expect they'll never vote PSDB again.

I predict Cira Gomez will switch to PT, and could still win if not. Anyways, 3 years is eternity in politics.

baabaa vaaavaa vovo' limpo - JDS, as you are well aware I have a bit of an irrational / undeniable thing in relation to my mouca but why does your site indirectly promote / drive sales in make-a-fee or sim-trapacas? Is the inflection that of bo, aes or worse a 3rd party xfer from ch.c? Are you the sole licenced importer of such produce? 20-30 years ago it used to be underchallenged wiz-g computer science masters candidates that invented Trojans (ask forrest about what happened to the first hard drive for his original MAC), now it's questionable as to the who why and for what purpose.

2010 puts a bit of pressure on things, not sure I'll manage to be eligible to vote by then but I won't give up trying.

Well, we´re glad you cleared that up. Thanks.

Well, we´re glad you cleared that up. Thanks.

You are most welcome

I predict Cira Gomez will switch to PT, and could still win if not. Anyways, 3 years is eternity in politics.

Every politician changes the party and I guess Ciro is no exception. If he gets elected, the Northeastern part of the country will continue growing. I dont think that your stats about 80% of the work force having their C.T "assinada" is correct. But, so what, the ones who got theirs signed by their "patrões" can always sue their employers and suck more money out of them.

Cú, I think that it is still worth waiting until after the Carnival in February (200 to forecast the results for 2010

Cú, I think that it is still worth waiting until after the Carnival in February (200 to forecast the results for 2010

Sorry, I meant that it is worth waiting until after the Carnival in Feb of 2008.

.
Prediction 9: Deforestation will continue at a rate of at least 10,000 square kilometers a year. This prediction also goes against the most recent trends since the Lula government has recently announced that deforestation was cut to 9,600 square kilometers between August 1 and July 30, 2007. They take credit for stronger enforcement measures that cut it from a high of 27,429 in 2004.

I am not sure about the numbers, however, I agree that the government is fiddling up with the results. I have a family member who was kidnapped while working for IBAMA.

Nevertheless, the economic forces behind deforestation are very strong and the demand for land to grow soybeans and other crops is high. A global market for ethanol may increase this pressure. Environmentalist forces seem weak in comparison to the developmental pressures.

Yeaah, later on in another 20 years we'll see if my predictions are right. Environmentalists such as myself, are weak in a country driven by corruption. Soy beans and crops will only benefit the rich, the poor will continue to live as if we are in colonial times.

Prediction 7: Brazilian elections will increasingly split along north/south lines. Lula and the Workers Party have increasingly built their base in the northeast and in the poorer states based on income transfer programs. These programs impose a tax burden which is a constraint on economic growth in the wealthier southern states.

Lula e CIA. will continue to blame previous government. However, he prefers to anchor our "nordestinos" with failed social programs. PT should be ashamed of themselves.

Sorry, I meant that it is worth waiting until after the Carnival in Feb of 2008

Then, we'll have "Semana Santa, Dia das maes, dia das criancas, dos mortos, you get the idea...

what does Alkymin have to offer?
Nuthin, zip, nada
nadica da silva Prefiro votar em Ciro mesmo

I have a family member who was kidnapped while working for IBAMA.

Don't we all?

Define "working".

Prediction 9: Deforestation will continue at a rate of at least 10,000 square kilometers a year.

I've done 2 trips to the rainforest - last time was 3 weeks in places like Jaú which is as big as Vermont and has perhaps 100 people total who are not allowed to export anything and yes, you do need permits to enter:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaú_National_Park

Shelly, that's a gringa name and since the 1st world already destroyed their forests, there's no justification to point fingers. The first world has nothing even close to places like Jaú.

Prediction 9: Deforestation will continue at a rate of at least 10,000 square kilometers a year.

I've done 2 trips to the rainforest - last time was 3 weeks in places like Jaú which is as big as Vermont and has perhaps 100 people total who are not allowed to export anything and yes, you do need permits to enter:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaú_National_Park

Shelly, that's a gringa name and since the 1st world already destroyed their forests, there's no justification to point fingers. The first world has nothing even close to places like Jaú.

Brazil inherited from Portugal a corrupt lethargic entrenched burocracy. Not much can change because the government forces children into public schools that are in a state of complete decay and neglect. Public school teachers earn dirt poor salaries. Most children don't graduate from high school throughout the North East. The system is set up to provide an abundance of unskilled labor in a world where skilled labor is needed to compete on a global basis. The minimum wage of about 400 reais is little more than $220 a month. An empregada, domestic worker considers herself lucky to make that much. Brasil's infrastructure is awful. 1/10 the rail capacity as the US. Not much paved roads outside of the main cities and usually in a state if disrepair. On the bright side lower interest rates and taxes on bond interest received buy the foreign exchange speculators like the "Harvard Endowment," could send the real back to three to the dollars and help revive the export sector. Brasil needs to follow the US and China with a cheap currency to stimulate the economy. I agree that someboby will change to the PT and gain LULA's support
Watch out fro Heloisa Helena of the PCB. She could run on an honesty/transparency in government and with help for social change approach, carry the lower classes into the presidency.

Mr. Itaparica,
Please clarify your comments regarding the weakening of the real. Would others in this discussion please weigh in with where they think the real is heading. Thanks

Watch out fro Heloisa Helena of the PCB. She could run on an honesty/transparency in government and with help for social change approach, carry the lower classes into the presidency.

I wouldn't classify Heloisa as a candidate from the lower classes. She is a Professor of Nursing. The same thing applies to Chris Buarque. I wonder who the next candidate from the "lower class". Of course there are already talks about a plebiscite during the next year´s municipal elections to extend the mandate of the current incumbent for another term.

As for Real, I think it would hover around the current rate or come down further. Bad time for small exporters and great time for those who want to cash in their Reais for dollars.The best thing is to study the rate everyday and make your own decisions. The pundits here said a few months ago that BY THE END of this year, Real would stabilize at R$1.95 per dollar.It was proved to be incorrect!

Shelly is my nickname, yes I have a VERY gringa surname and name. I bet you wouldn't be able to pronounce it, just think of me as a 5 year old trying to learn to write it and say it to school friends. Although I am from Brazil, Rio, I am Dutch of descendant. So what that I have a "gringa" name, does it make me less qualified to speak or give my opinion?

Shelly, that's a gringa name and since the 1st world already destroyed their forests, there's no justification to point fingers. The first world has nothing even close to places like Jaú.

Yes, the "first world' pollutes more than we do, per capita, they are the worst. But does it mean that we have to the same? No. I would like to share something with you. I have family members (I have told this story here many times) working for IBAMA. Less than two years ago, my aunt was kidnapped at gun point by the "jaguncos", let's say, natives given money and guns to stop the GOVERNMENT WORKERS doing their job. Therefore, unless you have a better story to tell, it is no point in arguing about this. We, as a country, should lead the world in terms of environmental protection. I have just finished a paper, a scientific research more than 14 pages, which I am trying to publish with the Journal of Coastal Research. It was related to the Indian Ocean Tsunami and the role of coastal vegetation and environmental policies on conservation and some work on early tsunami warning system that my department is trying to get involved. If we continue to "follow" on the footsteps of the "first world countries", we'll could probably destroy our Amazon by 2050.

I wouldn't classify Heloisa as a candidate from the lower classes. She is a Professor of Nursing. The same thing applies to Chris Buarque.

I couldn't agree more with you. I saw her on the telly while in Brazil, and she is an intelligent person-screams a bit too much, but she can make better arguments and was able defend her point of view much better than other candidates. I can see that this sort of comment about her "class", represents an "elitist" thinking. As we have seen over and over again, people continue to be judged on the basis of "social class" instead of achievements. Unless we change our way of thinking about people, race and color, we'll continue to be a failure.

Brazil inherited from Portugal a corrupt lethargic entrenched burocracy.

When did we get our independence? We cannot keep blaming Portugal for our woes.We had 185 years to sort things out! I agree with you that we have a corrupt lethargic entrenched bureaucracy. Having said that, I will also point out that we vote for the "lesser of the two evils", we should boycott and annul our vote. Pele once said: "the Brazilian people, do not know how to vote", and Jacques Chirac once said, "Brazil is not a serious country". Brazilians vote usually, for the "prettiest" candidate, or did you forget about Collor? I remember seeing women going crazy on the telly for this guy. Unfortunately, most people will vote for the candidate which promises to give them a bag of sugar every month. We are the fortunate people, we can access the internet, read a book, speak another language. But how many people can actually write their own names? Have you seen how they make this people sign their names on the "cedula"? We can only blame ourselves for the current situation, not Portugal. They have left and we continued on the path of subjugation and enslavement of the masses. This is a definition from Dictionary.com of the word slave.

noun
1.a person who is the property of and wholly subject to another; a bond servant.
2.a person entirely under the domination of some influence or person: a slave to a drug.

Funny how with the Real two people can be "right" at the same time. I use the Folha de Sao Paulo online "dineiro" section to check on exchange rates. Notice that today on the parallel market the quote is 2.06 reais to the dollar but the official exchange rate is 1.76. Anyhow, right now it appears to me that there is a herd mentality with thousands of Wall Street Mutual Fund types rushing to buy reais to purchase Brazilian Stocks and Bonds. Harvard Endowment started the charge many years ago and made over a billion dollars betting on the Real. Now wall street is talking up putting a percentage of money in BRIC's (Brazil, Russia, India, China)
So Brasil today is flush with foreign reserves, over a hundred billion dollars. A big chunk of that money came from selling primary goods to China. Iron ore for example. China is now selling manufactured junk to Brazil. Last August I spotted Chinese stainless pots and pans in a Bom Preco (Owned by Walmart) on the island of Itaparica. By US standard these pots and pans were a bit pricey but they where cheaper than Brazilian Tramantino pots. Longer term implications lead me to believe a future government will want a cheaper currency to improve exports, stimulate tourism, and create more jobs. The current strength in the real feels like the real estate bubble in the states.

The good thing is that now the government is starting to spend some of the cash hoard with the PAC program. Money is coming to small towns across the country for infrastructure, sewers, roads, schools, hospitals, etc. This is a step in the right direction.

The good thing is that now the government is starting to spend some of the cash hoard with the PAC program. Money is coming to small towns across the country for infrastructure, sewers, roads, schools, hospitals, etc. This is a step in the right direction.

Which states is the govrnment spendin on all these projects? Wouldn't mind moving to one of them.

Watch out fro Heloisa Helena of the PCB.

Please God, say it ain't so. She's cute and all that but about a presidential as Faustão Silva.

While the re-nationalisation Vale do Rio Doce is about as likely as Lula learning to speak Portuguese, the mere fact of it being discussed is a timely reminder of just how slender is the margin between a growing, vibrant, confident market economy and a descent into Chavez-style interventionism and bankruptcy.

Aécio/Anastasia 2010!

Brazil's elite are enforcing a caste system equally as racist and arrogant today as existed in the UK, WW 2 Germany and unquestionably India. Why else would it take international pressure to stop the killing of street children in Rio and elsewhere?

The US Olympic official who was hammered for his statement when welcoming other Olympic officials to Rio at the Pan American games to Africa. was correct Considering the wealth of Brazil and mass poverty/violence similar to African countries like Nigeria, and Angola also rich in resources and corrupt.

If Brazilians were sincere about social and economic change they would take the profit out of being a elected official in Brasilia. And throw the corrupt ones in prison along side the drug dealers. To be evenhanded they share their mentality with US citizens who continue to ignore earth, reality.

Brazil's elite are enforcing a caste system equally as racist and arrogant today as existed in the UK, WW 2 Germany and unquestionably India. Why else would it take international pressure to stop the killing of street children in Rio and elsewhere?

You are just another misinformed moron. They are not street chldren, they are drug dealers, thieves and robbers, carrying guns and they kill people without thinking twice. What the movie Tropa de Elite and you will what those "children" are capable of.

Amazing a country that pays dirt wages to teachers, fails to maintain roads, sewers, schools, hospitals, and has a rail system 1/10 the size of th USA, yet more land, has a currency that is up over 100% against the dollar. The pot holes in my strret in Brazil have never been larger. Neither had the government trade surplus. This country is in a state of complete neglect. Nobody with any money allows their children to study in a public school. A sorry destiny to a life of poverty. Teachers are lucky to get 400 reais per month. A little more than 230 dollars. Now that the Treasury is bursting with more that 200 billion dollars it is tim to double teacher's wages and invest in the children and the future of Brazil.

Little more than a year ago three Italians working for a non-profit were murdered by a group of thugs led by a thug who was born in a favela but got an MBA through the non-profit group which was structured to help kids from the favela. The thug got an MBA then started to steal money from the non-profit. He was confronted and returned with his friends and killed the Italians.
Just two days ago another Italian was killed in Ipanema. Never wear gold in Brazil.

have lived in Rio De janeiro for almost 10 years now. Duering this time, there have neen a lot of changes. Some good and some bad.
Crime has not gone down. I think the authorties wants the rest of the world , to think that they are doing something, and maybe they do, but I can`t see any improvement. Sometimes I would say that the situation is more like a civil war. Because of the world cup and the 2010 Olympic games, the authorities have promished to stamp down on Crimes, but I doubt they will do anything. It will be like duering the PAN AM games a couple of years ago. Duering the Games the fights between Drug Trafficers and Militar police, was never shown on The daily TV news. The local thought that the Bandidos, had hollyday. It will be that same duering the OL games...none violence will be shown on TV....The government will call in hte Armey, and they will take controll of the Favelas, duering the 1 month OL games. There will be no crime for this periode...after the Games , everything will return to normal. I am not saying that They are not trying do do something about the situation, but it is very difficult. How can you expect that The police will risk their lifes, for almost no salery at all.