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 Like sunbeams shafting through a thick dark cloud, some scattered rays of morality have briefly illuminated the Brazilian political scene. Seven members of the 15-strong Congressional ethics committee resigned in protest at the House of Representatives' refusal to support the committee's recommendations calling for the expulsion of a leading Congressman alleged to have been involved in the bribes-for-votes scandal.
At the same time, a Congressional inquiry (CPI) voted by a majority of 17 to 4 for the public prosecutor to investigate more than 100 people suspected of being involved in the scandal. Despite these rare signs of public morality by politicians, few people believe that any fitting punishment will eventually be imposed on the corrupt politicians involved. However, if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva thinks that this affair is over he had better think again. A large section of the media is still extremely hostile and it is not inconceivable that it may wreck his plans to stand again. We will shortly be approaching the first anniversary of the event which led to the unveiling of this scandal - the publication by Veja magazine of a photo which showed a manager within the state-owned Post Office pocketing a bribe. This will be an occasion for the media to repeat and reopen the story. This affair unfolded in a way no-one could have foreseen and uncovered a vast scandal in which the PT was alleged to have paid bribes to members of other parties to support the governing alliance in Congress. Political corruption is nothing new in Brazil but the brazenness and scale of the PT's approach to government shocked many who had voted for Lula; it also destroyed the PT's claim to be the only honest party in Brazil. Palocci Goes - Who's Next? In less than a year Lula has lost all his main PT advisers and most of his top ministers. The latest to go was the finance minister, Antonio Palocci, who was replaced by Guido Mantega on March 27. Palocci's fate was sealed when the media ganged up on him after he had denied allegations that he had often visited a house in Brasília where dubious financial (and sexual) deeds are said to have occurred. Lula is said to have been so irritated by Palocci's prevarications, if not downright lies, about the allegations that in the end, he lost his patience and fired him. Despite this, he publicly praised his "brother" Palocci rather than distance himself from someone who has been shown to be a liar. Palocci has also been accused of illegally obtaining the bank account of a doorman who first made the allegations in order to blacken the doorman's reputation. The former minister, who was widely praised for his handling of the economy, is now under investigation by the police. Thankfully Palocci's departure has caused no major disruption to the economy. There was an initial flurry of concern which hit the real, the country risk and the price of government bonds but this passed quickly and the market went back to the business of making money. The media is now gunning for the Justice Minister, Márcio Thomaz Bastos, who is alleged to have known about the attempts to smear the doorman's reputation. Bastos is reported to want to resign but Lula wants him to stay on. This has become a familiar story and it will come as no surprise if Bastos is the next minister to fall. In some countries losing ministers at this rate would cause a crisis but not in Brazil where the president is God and the finance minister is the only real heavyweight. The other ministerial posts (apart from the foreign ministry) are like baubles to be spread among the various parties which make up the governing alliance. Lula has been particularly cavalier with ministries, creating and disbanding them, appointing nonentities and showing no real interest in how they function. The Social Security Ministry, for example, is responsible for Brazil's enormous debt, thanks to the country's overgenerous pension system, which allows public workers to retire after only 25 years service, yet Lula has made no effort to ensure that this position has been held by someone who is prepared to tackle the issue. The Labor Ministry is another department which should be making efforts to overturn Brazil's outdated labor laws which discourage rather than encourage companies to hire new workers. However, the minister is a former trade union leader with no intention of introducing radical change. The Foreign Ministry is in the grip of nationalist bureaucrats in the Itamaraty who have aligned Brazil with the world's losers - poor states in Africa and Latin America - and allowed countries like China and Russia to take advantage of its naïve policies, such as recognizing China as a market economy. Media Seeks New Targets Much of the media is still annoyed that Lula has remained untouched and is the favorite to win this year's election although he has not yet formally declared that he will be a candidate. With Palocci gone (perhaps followed by Bastos) Lula has become more isolated and could well become the next target of the media's ire. The fact that the final CPI report did not implicate him has certainly not settled the issue. The media might still turn up something which would link him unequivocally to this scandal and show that he knew more than he has admitted or even played an active role in it. Rather than tackle Lula head-on, the media could intensify its investigations into the involvement of one of his sons in a company mentioned in the CPI report. This is a long shot but should not be discarded. Palocci is a good example of a politician who was competent and responsible and enjoyed widespread support among politicians from all sides and the goodwill of the media. However, when things turned against him, his allies abandoned him and the same press, which had been featuring flattering articles about him a year earlier, tore him to shreds. Lula has no goodwill to fall back on with a section of the media. His strength lies in his popular support, shown in opinion polls. For this reason, he will undoubtedly step up his propaganda campaign in the run-up to the election and solidify his bedrock support by traveling throughout the country. Finally, it was interesting to see this little note in the Folha de S. Paulo of April 7. Under the headline "Visits to the Folha" a single sentence informed readers that "Roberto Jefferson (PTB) former federal Congressman visited the Folha yesterday." Jefferson, of course, was the man who brought the bribes-for-votes scandal into the open and is one of only three Congressmen to have been expelled over the issue. Readers must have wondered why a disgraced former political leader like Jefferson should be given the VIP treatment by the Folha. It is worth recalling, however, that Jefferson's main revelations appeared in interviews given exclusively to the Folha. What next? Maybe he will turn up as a columnist. John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish writer and consultant with long experience of Brazil. He is based in São Paulo and runs his own company Celtic Comunicações. This article originally appeared on his site www.brazilpoliticalcomment.com.br. He can be contacted at
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. © John Fitzpatrick 2006
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Furthermore, its shameful Fitzpatrick attacks the Social Security Ministry, knowing full well that Lula's first big fight was reform of the ministry, creating a strike for two months or so. In the end reform was accomplished, far more than anything imaginable by Fitzpatrick's idol, FHC.
And in the end, that's why you see articles like this one. Lula's economic policy is like FHC's on steriods, and the PSDB has ran out of ideas because like a good politican, Lula has made PSDB's economic policy his policy.
All this mensalão talk - along with its obvious lack of hard evidence - is a reflection of the lack of ideas and charisma currently present in the PSDB, of which Fitzpatrick is simply a pumper. All attack, no ideas.