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2006 -
July 2006
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Written by John Fitzpatrick
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Monday, 24 July 2006 08:51 |
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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has been well ahead of his main rival Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) in opinion polls, but a recent poll published by DataFolha shows an unexpected rise in support for the third runner, Senator Heloísa Helena (PSOL). This could mean that Lula may have to face Alckmin in a second round of voting and not achieve the victory he had been hoping for in the first round.
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Alckmin will probably try to lump both Lula and Helena with the likes of the MST, MLST, and even the PCC. Maybe Lula can be baited, Ã la the Rother case, into making indignant pronunciamientos about his self-proclaimed sanctity and the PT's morality, and end up having, well, a few deaths associated with himself at the wrong (right?) time. If this happened on a live debate, it could well turn the tide against him. Helena pulling this one off would be really fun to watch, but I digress.
Regarding the São Paulo outburst of violence, it seems to be hitting Lula as much as Alckmin, who has managed to distance himself from the crisis. The verbal sparring between Marcio Thomaz Bastos and Cláudio Lembo, with occasional squawks from Lula, tends to put the blame on the incumbent.
Finally, the presidential race's tour de force are the media spots and debates. I don't think debating will be a breeze for Lula, as both Alckmin and Helena still have plenty of ammunition to throw at him. I guess HeloÃsa's criticism will be more passionate, with personal overtones, and harder hitting, but might end up helping Alckmin.
While HeloÃsa managed to show up on the radar, both Lula and Alckmin have yet to really get their "road shows" going. So, it is still warmup time.