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Dictatorship Cloud Hangs Over Brazil's Efforts to Assert Its Military Might PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alex Sánchez   
Wednesday, 10 September 2008 20:20

Armed Forces BrazilIn recent years, the Brazilian military has embarked on a mission to re-invent itself by means of a combination of purchases of new military equipment, grandiose plans for constructing a nuclear submarine, and the leadership offered by a pronouncedly pro-military president, as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has turned out to be.

In addition to these factors, a growing number of alliances have been formed with key extra-hemispheric and other regional actors, with Brazil demonstrating its interest in becoming something more than simply a regional military power.

The Brazilian military has a history composed of both high and low points, the latter being its tendency to intervene in governmental affairs, reaching its apogee in the 1964 military coup that set up the military junta which ruled the country harshly until 1985.

Brazil's current global military ambitions are rooted in the major operations in which the country's military was involved during World War II in Italy, as well as its current domination of the UN's peacekeeping force in Haiti.

Interestingly, the Brazilian armed forces have not been engaged in combat on its own continent in one way or another since the latter part of the 19th century, when Brazil participated in the War of the Triple Alliance from 1864-1870 against Paraguay.

When it comes to its dark eras, the Brazilian military has been involved in a series of coups, the last of which occurred on March 31, 1964, when it overthrew the constitutional presidency of João Goulart and proceeded to retain power until 1985. During that period, five military presidents were "elected" by their fellow senior commanders to lead the military junta ruling the country.

The regime finally stepped down that year amid nationwide demonstrations calling for a return to civilian rule. For many years and based on sound evidence, sober allegations have been made that Washington backed that military coup, which it has always framed in Cold War terms.

Brazil's military is also known for having developed a strong industrial base for much of its weapons output, particularly during the height of military rule in the 1960s-1980s. Brazil's weapons arsenal includes the well-known Tucano fighter aircraft, which is still widely used by other countries in and outside the region, including Peru, not to mention different types of tanks and armored personal carriers (APCs).

The Brazilian military has also had to deal with homegrown insurgencies. In 1974, around 10,000 Brazilian troops were assigned to attack leftist encampments in the Amazon, where guerrillas were said to have been planning an organized uprising against the military regime. At least 60 civilians were killed, with others later disappearing from the jails in which they were being detained. In 2007, Brazil's Supreme Court ordered the military to open its secret files regarding the "disappeared" insurgents.

About 400 Brazilian dissidents are thought to have been detained and abused throughout the period of the military regime's rule, with many of them still missing, presumed to have been murdered. In 2006, Maria Amelia de Almeida Teles filed a lawsuit against Col. Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra, who headed the São Paulo secret police from 1970-1974, accusing him of torturing her and four family members when they were imprisoned for 11 months between 1972 and 1973.

These developments are not apocryphal neither do they distort the pathological anti-societal creedal beliefs held by the Brazilian military at the time. Most recently, the remains of Miguel Nuet, a Spanish citizen who disappeared during the Brazilian dictatorship, were found in an unmarked grave in the outskirts of São Paulo. According to reports, Nuet had been arrested on October 9, 1973, under suspicion of being a terrorist; the police said he committed suicide while in custody, one month after his arrest.

Gay Issue and Other Scandals

At present, Brazil defense expenditures continue to overshadow those of all South American nations. The Brazilian military is a comparatively large force, currently fielding around 200,000 personnel. The Brazilian armed forces have had a somewhat troubled history in a number of areas, including how they have dealt with homosexual conscripts.

In June 2008, Army Sergeant Laci Marinho de Araújo was arrested on live television because he discussed his personal relationship with another soldier. The army had filed desertion charges against him, saying he had been missing since April; Marinho adamantly insists that he and his partner are victims of sexual discrimination.

Another growing scandal has been the alleged wiretapping of several top government officials including Gilmar Mendes, president of the Supreme Court. General Jorge Felix of Brazil's Institutional Security Ministry accused rogue elements within ABIN of the wiretapping, arguing that "ABIN, as an institution, has never done and does not do these things."

Other scandals include the so-called "Massacre of the Baixada Fluminense," in which 29 were killed by an armed gang, in a northern region of the state of Rio de Janeiro. A military policeman named Carlos Jorge Carvalho was found guilty in 2006 of arming and training the gang, and was sentenced to 543 years in prison.

In June 2008, eleven soldiers were arrested for handing over three men to a Rio de Janeiro gang. The three, two students and a laborer, were subsequently murdered. These are just a few of the disturbingly large number of daily incidents involving uniformed personnel implicated in a range of illicit activities with street gangs.

Budget and Weaponry

Since before the 1990s, Brazil had capped annual military spending at about US$ 3 billion, or 1.78% of the country's gross domestic product, as compared to the region's average of 1.98% of GDP. This budget was allocated to equipment acquisition programs as well as to salaries, maintenance, training and infrastructure development of the three military branches. However, starting in 2004, Brazil's military expenditures started to climb rapidly.

In 2007, Brazil's military budget bordered US$ 3.5 billion; this year, the budget has reached US$ 5 billion. This is a relatively, an astounding figure, which would be difficult for any other power to match, with the probable exception of Venezuela's armed forces, which is presently involved in a large weapons' procurement program with Russian, Spanish and likely Chinese suppliers, to be for by "petro-dollars."

Brazil also possesses significant weaponry, though its recent military purchases from foreign companies have been more a part of a regular maintenance process rather than an effort to stress any preponderance of military strength in the region. However, this attitude began to change in 2006, as part of a replacement schedule, when Brazil purchased four C-295 military transport planes from EADS CASA, a Spanish weapons manufacturer.

To demonstrate its growing military prowess, a massive 10-day military exercise code-named Albacora was carried out by the Brazilian armed forces at Rio de Janeiro's Macaé Port in September 2007. This included the deployment of over 8,500 troops, along with 250 military vehicles, 19 warships, and 50 aircraft.

Half of the aircraft were helicopters - among them navy Eurocopter HU-14 Super Pumas and UH-12/13 Fennecs/Esquilos, AgustaWestland AH-11A Super Lynx AH 11A, and Sikorsky Aircraft SH-3A/B Sea Kings, army HA1 Fennecs/Esquilo, Eurocopter HM1 Panthers, and air force H-34 Super Pumas and H-50 Esquilos.

This is not to say that the Brazilian military is focusing only on weaponry, the question of the new goal and objectives of the military are being discussed in strategic terms. Roberto Mangabeira Unger, minister of the Strategic Affairs Secretariat of the Presidency has declared that "one of the main reasons for devising a national defense strategy is to have a shield not only against aggressions, but also against intimidations. If Brazil wants to explore its own path it cannot be subject to intimidations." An inter-ministerial commission headed by Minister Jobim has been charged to define how the military should act "in times of peace or war."

The Brazilian military is once again taking on a greater role in internal security initiatives, specifically, combating the drug trafficking cartels that recently have been emboldened to more openly operate in the country. In March 2008, the Brazilian army burnt as many as 7,000 coca crops in Tabatinga, Amazonas state. Also found on site was a laboratory capable of processing cocaine. There have long been fears that Colombian drug cartels were formally outsourcing the cultivation of coca and cocaine-processing to neighboring countries, such as Brazil.

Another possible use for the military, resulting from an idea attributed to Carlos Minc, Brazil's minister for the environment, is that the armed forces should patrol the questionable use of nature reserves in the Amazon. "I am going to propose the creation of patrols or movements by army regiments to watch over the big parks and reserves," he was quoted as saying.

Since Brazil has around 300 nature parks and reserves, this would be a sizeable task for any military establishment to take on, particularly since corruption routinely has encouraged payoffs to be paid to senior military commanders for providing protection and looking the other way when cattle-ranchers were being illegally allotted the use of public lands, at an under-the-table price, often involving the destruction of rain forests.

In August 2008, amidst growing tensions between Indian tribes and landowners, an AP story reported that "top military generals warn that too much land in Indian hands, especially along Brazil's borders, threatens national security and could lead to tribes unilaterally declaring themselves independent nations."

The military already controls important aspects of Brazil's aviation industry, which frequently has been criticized in light of the high number of plane crashes and other accidents, including incidents involving facilities across the country in recent years.

For example, in 2007, a TAM Airlines Airbus crashed at Congonhas, killing 199 people. This tragic event in particular prompted a massive re-evaluation of the military's management of the civilian aviation industry and raised the possibility for having the industry revert to civilian control.

Patrolling Haiti

On the regional and international scene, the Brazilian military was the founder and remains a leading contributor to the United Nations Stabilization Mission to Haiti (MINUSTAH). The Brazilian-led mission, in which its military has played a somewhat controversial role, was deployed there beginning in June 2004, a few months after constitutionally-elected president Jean-Bertrand Aristide was pressured out of office by a coup allegedly orchestrated by the U.S., France and the UN.

Brazil's military involvement in this mission has been riddled with problems and its resulting image has been blemished, particularly by its soldiers' trigger-happy tendency, their disrespect for ordinary Haitians and, at times, a lack of professionalism. In January 2006, Lieutenant General Urano, the Brazilian Commander of MINUSTAH, committed suicide.

In June 2008, Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim announced that Brazil would send an additional 300 troops to Haiti, 100 of them from the Engineer's Battalion. According to MINUSTAH's official UN webpage, the force's current strength (as of July 31, 2008) totaled 9,040 "uniformed personnel, including 7,105 troops and 1,935 police, supported by 474 international civilian personnel, 1,166 local civilian staff and 192 United Nations Volunteers." The force remains headed by a Brazilian military officer, Major-General Carlos Alberto Dos Santos Cruz.

The Brazilian minister declared that "the problem is that we have to be in Haiti. It is Brazil's duty to be in Haiti because Brazil is a major power. And as a major power, we have a responsibility towards the Latin American countries. The country does not need money, because there are already big international donors. The problem is: the money is there, but there are no projects."

Such a comment, redolent of neo-Manifest Destiny rhetoric famed by early 19th century U.S. leaders, lends the belief that Jobim and his senior colleagues may now explicitly view their country as the Western Hemisphere's new "city on the hill."

Lula Enters the Picture

Lula has been keen to remain on the right side of the military and has made some firm declarations professing his desire to build a revitalized, more powerful military. This is somewhat ironic of Lula, taking into consideration that as a union leader in the 1980s he was very critical of the armed forces, but today he caters to their every expansion plan, including, outlandishly enough, entertaining the construction of a nuclear submarine, scheduled to cost hundreds of millions of dollars.

It will be interesting to learn more about Lula's commitment to the matter of investigating the military regime's dark past and what Lula might do should he discover that some high ranking military officials, as is likely, were involved in human rights abuses and disappearances of enemies of the regime.

He declared in August 2007 that "we should set a deadline and plan what strategy to use so we can definitively know and recover," and then added "one of the wounds that remains open is finding the remains of many adversaries." He has stopped short, however, of actually delivering justice to the victims' families. The members of the military dictatorship are protected by a 1979 amnesty that even the vociferous Lula has been unwilling to challenge even at his most ebullient moment.

Brazil's Military Industry

During the 1970s the Brazilian military industry was highly respected, with its Tucano air fighter as its hub contribution to tactical weaponry at the time, with the aircraft still in use today. Brazil's military industrial companies, Embraer, Engesa and Avibras have built other type of weaponry, specially from the 1960s to 1980s, besides the Tucano.

Among these we can find EE-17 Sucuri tank destroyer, the EE-9 Cascavel armored reconnaissance vehicle, the EE-3 Jararaca scout car, as well as the MB-3 Tamoyo tan. The EE-T1 Osorio main battle tank was Engesa's flagship tank. With the end of the Cold War and major conventional warfare operations, Brazil's military industry ran out of clients, forcing Engesa and Avibras to file for bankruptcy in the mid-1990s.

Lula made clear his intention to exhume Brazil's military industry during a September 2007 trip to Spain. In an interview with Spanish daily El Pais, the Brazilian leader declared that "in the 1970s, we had modern factories that built tanks [...] But they have been dismantled. Brazil must return to what it had. To rebuild our weaponry factories, we must buy."

In 2007, Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica SA, or Embraer, said it was studying the development of a military transport plane that could compete with the Lockheed C-130. If the plane is manufactured, the Embraer C-390, could transport up to 19 metric tons (21 tons). This would be the heaviest aircraft ever produced by the company, the world's No. 4 aircraft manufacturer. If manufactured, it would be available by 2011 or 2012.

Embraer's leading military aircraft is currently the Super Tucano turbo-prop model, which mainly has been used to train air force pilots. In 2006, Brazil sold 25 of these aircraft to Colombia, in a deal worth US$ 235 million. In June 2008, EP Aviation announced that it purchased a 314-B1 Super Tucano fighter (without the two .50-caliber machine guns normally attached to the wings) from Embraer, for the price of US$ 4.5 million.

EP Aviation is a subsidiary of Blackwater Worldwide, an exceedingly controversial U.S. private security contractor that has been heavily involved in operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. A June 2008 Associated Press article reported that preliminary negotiations are now being carried out between Embraer and U.S. authorities to sell eight Super Tucanos to Iraq.

The Tucano is a light aircraft normally used for pilot-training but it can also be used for light attack missions or for air patrols. In August 2008, Chile announced that it had contracted Embraer to construct 12 Super Tucano for the Chilean Air Force. Also, during the LAADS 2007 weaponry exhibition, the Brazilian Flight Solutions company unveiled its FS-01 Watchdog, a new medium tactical unmanned air vehicle.

In February 2007, European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. (EADS) announced that it had sold its 2.12% stake in Embraer for a profit of US $163 million (before taxes and bank fees). EADS CEOs Tom Enders and Louis Gallois said in a statement, at the same time, "we remain fully committed to our partnership with Embraer, which has matured over many years. Brazil and Latin America are important markets and we will continue to strengthen our industrial presence in the region."

Until Embraer regains its lost eminence as a designer/manufacturer of military aircraft, Brazil's armed forces are relying on foreign companies to re-invigorate their inventory. The U.S. Boeing Co. has joined other manufacturers of military technology (like Russia's Sukhoi, Sweden's Saab and France's Dassault Aviation) in making a bid to sell specific military models to Brazil.

The corporation's representatives visited Brazil in March 2008 and were keen on marketing Boeing's F/A-18 Hornet twin engine, tactical aircraft. It is expected that Brazil will purchase anywhere from 24 to 36 planes in this category from whatever company wins the bid.

At the same time, Russia's Rosoboronexport and Italy's Agusta Aerospace are vying for a $500 million contract to supply Brazil with 12 helicopters. Rosoboronexport is offering its MI35 helicopters while Agusta is offering the AW-109. Other competitors are the American Bell Helicopter and the French-manufactured Eurocopter.

Integration, Deals and Projects

Perhaps one of the most ambitious projects for Brazil's military is that of its proposed nuclear submarine. For decades, Brazil has attempted to build a nuclear sub without much success. Last year, Lula declared a new attempt for the country to construct a locally-built vessel.

On the face of it, the project seemed far-fetched if not slightly ludicrous, since Brazil has no perceived external enemy threat (Venezuela being an extreme long shot), and because the project would be immensely expensive and could only be produced by 2020, if everything went according to plan.

In February 2008, an interesting development occurred. Lula visited Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Buenos Aires, and the two leaders agreed to jointly build nuclear-powered submarines, since both countries have had a nuclear history.

Even more intriguing was a declaration by French President Nicolas Sarkozy that France would be contributing to the project. In fact, it is believed that the French Scorpene-class submarine (a diesel-powered attacked sub) will serve as the model for Brazil's nuclear vessel.

In December 2006, then-Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Brasilia where he met with his Brazilian counterpart, Celso Amorim. Russia's state-run arms exporting company Rosoboronexport demonstrated the performance attributes of the BuK-M2 antiaircraft missile system at the LAADS 2007 exhibition of defense technology in Rio de Janeiro.

While it is unclear whether Brazilian officials showed any interest in the weapons system, it is worth highlighting that Russia's well-known weapons manufacturer specifically chose the Brazilian exhibition for BuK's debut.

In early February 2008, Jobim traveled to Russia where he met with Lavrov as well as Defense Minister Anatoly Sedyukov. In April 2008, the London security publication Jane's Defence Weekly revealed that Brazil and Russia had reached an agreement on joint ventures involving military technology, including the VLS (Veículo Lançador de Satélites) launch vehicle.

In February 2008, there was a noteworthy meeting between Lula and French President Sarkozy, in the town of Saint-Gorges de Oyapock, on the border between French Guyana (a French overseas territory) and Brazil. Reports say that Sarkozy was pushing to sell military technology to Brazil and arrange for Brazilian companies to be licensed to build French weaponry like the Rafale fighter plane and the Scorpene class submarine.

In the past decade, the South American giant has become France's most important ally in the region. Hence it was no surprise that Sarkozy stated that "there is no taboo. Brazil is a democratic power and a friend of France. We, the French, are transparent with friends, and the two countries are willing to work for world peace."

IBSA Front and Center

In May 2008, Brazil sent several warships to South Africa to participate in military exercises, as did India. Hence, there is mounting talk about the growing depth and strength of the India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) alliance. It is noteworthy that there is a, albeit modest, security aspect to the arrangement, as the three countries are all regional military powers. Brazil's navy had sent the Liberal and the Independência, both of which are guided missile frigates of the Niterói class, to participate in these IBSA military exercises.

Other exercises to promote regional integration included joint military exercises in June 2007 involving nearly 200 pilots of the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) and the Argentine Air Force (FAA). The pilots used 18 fighter planes for training operations, which include intercepting suspicious air traffic, reconnaissance and search and rescue operations.

Most recently, in August 2008, Brazil and Venezuela carried out Operation VENBRA 5, involving 260 soldiers from the FAB and 140 from the Venezuelan Air Force (ANV). This VENBRA operation was a joint training and simulation exercise to improve cooperation between both air forces in order to combat illicit airline flights. The exercises took place in the Venezuelan Bolivar and Brazilian Roraima border regions.

Brazil in a Militarized Region

A May 2008 article in Rotor & Wing summarizes Brazil's security woes, observing that "with no quarrels along its 16,885-km borderline with 10 adjoining countries, Brazil's contemporary threats, if any, would arise not from any recognizable state and military entity but from non-state groups, transnational criminal organizations, proxies, and other bodies operating in more complex, ambiguous, and multidimensional terms. The risks could come from sabotage, terrorism, piracy, and the staging and stockpiling of illicit drugs and weaponry." Thus, a more vigorous Brazilian military must be put in the context of military and non-military events taking place in the region.

With regards to examples of a regional arms race being staged, Venezuela, Colombia and Chile could be theoretical security factors to Brazil. Not the least, even Peru is making strides when it comes to military deployment. In 2007 Brazilian Senator José Sarney, a former president who is now a key ally of President Lula, declared that Venezuela posed a "threat" to Brazil and Latin America.

In response, Venezuelan General Alberto Mueller Rojas told the Brazilian daily Folha de S. Paulo, "that's simply ridiculous ... Venezuela is not in any sort of arms race. Ex-president Sarney must be crazy or simply joking around." He then added that Sarney "knows perfectly well ... what is the size of Brazil's (armed) forces and what is the size of Venezuela's forces. It's an abysmal difference."

An interesting development in regional military matters has been the feisty decision by Ecuador's President Rafael Correa not to renew the lease of the military base in Manta to the U.S., which is set to expire in 2009. After President Martin Torrijos, who is presently militarizing Panama's security capabilities, ended all speculation about his country being Washington's prospective landlord for a new military base for U.S. forces in his country, speculation switched to either Colombia or Peru, since the other option, Paraguay, recently elected a fairly left-leaning president, who has no intention of handing out an airport to the Americans.

Another development that has attracted international media attention, though it may not necessarily amount to anything significant, has been the creation of the Conselho Sul-Americano de Defesa (CSD - South American Defense Council), an organ of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR/UNASOL). Some South American countries, including, as of now, an initially ambivalent Colombia, as well as Guyana and Suriname, have voiced their support for the project, spearheaded by Brazil.

In spite of all the hype, it is unclear how much of an effective organ CSD could be, for any number of reasons. First, there is a growing proliferation of pan-American organizations in the region, making it somewhat unclear which organization is actually in charge. There is the Andean Pact, MERCOSUR, the Venezuelan-led ALBA, IBA which includes Brazil, the Rio Group, the Ibero-American Secretariat and now UNASUR.

Similarly there is already a hemispheric-wide security entity, the Inter-American Defense Board (IADB) and College, both of them based in Washington D.C. The elephant not in the room is of course that the CSD, unlike the IADB, would not have the U.S. as its most influential member. Some analysts would argue that this could lead to greater security and cooperation among a group of autonomous Latin American countries feeling enthusiastic and free, because of Washington's absence.

An interesting note is that Mexico was not even considered being invited to join UNASUR. It is true that Mexico is not part of South America, however, seeing that Suriname and Guyana, which traditionally orient their foreign relations towards the English-speaking Caribbean, were invited, it would have made some sense to at least have proposed to the Mexicans to join the new bloc in-formation, in the name of Latin American unity.

This touches on a second point, which is whether or not a Brazilian-led South American NATO-style security organization, could achieve integration, security or demilitarization. South America continues to be plagued with security issues that have yet to be resolved and which are likely to create distrust between militaries. Examples of these are:

* Tensions among Peru, Bolivia and Chile

* Argentine distrust towards Chile due to Santiago's aid to the British during the 1982 Falklands/Malvinas War

* Friction between Colombia and Venezuela and Colombia and Ecuador over the recent infiltration of Colombian forces into Ecuador to attack a secret FARC jungle base

* Concerns last year about a possible infiltration of Venezuelan troops into Guyana

* Historical differences on which country is the leading military powerhouse in the region, Brazil or Argentina, both of which have prideful military high commands which may not be keen on following the lead of the military command of another country (as in the case of cooperation in United Nations peacekeeping missions). The Venezuelan military and the problem-prone Chilean armed forces do not markedly differ in this assessment as well.

An important event that will arguably boost Brazil's view of its strategy to maintain a strong military comes from the discovery of ultra-deep oil and gas fields in the Santos Basin off the coast of São Paulo state, which are likely to catapult Brazil to the ranks of the world's major hydrocarbon producers. The aforementioned Rotor & Wing article explained that "the Tupi and Jupiter fields also promise to elevate the state-owned oil company Petrobras from the world's 11th to sixth biggest energy company, by some rankings."

Brazilian Relations with the U.S.

The U.S. and Brazil traditionally have at times had strained relations, and always complex ones, Brazil sees itself as South America's hegemon and does not like to have to share its influence with that of the U.S.

A general parallel could be made to Russo-Turkish relations over influence regarding the Black Sea. In both cases there exists a global power and a regional power (with global aspirations) fighting for control over their respective spheres of influence.

With the rise of leftist governments across the Western Hemisphere, as well as the "Venezuela-effect" in terms of a new leftist-alliances undercutting Washington, as well as a new generation of military power and political leadership, it will be interesting to see how Brasília-Washington relations progress, particularly in regard to how both governments approach Caracas.

In addition, Brazil-U.S. relations have been particularly cautious and uneasy ever since the aforementioned 1964 military coup. According to a November 2006 Associated Press article, Carlos Fico, a professor at Rio de Janeiro's Federal University, declared to the press that a seven-page document entitled "A Contingency Plan for Brazil," co-written by then-U.S. Ambassador Lincoln Gordon in the mid 1960s, discussed fears of a possible communist takeover in Brazil and how Goulart might be replaced by the speaker of Brazil's lower house of Congress. The document was dated January 6, 1964.

In addition, the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) has, for years, supported the belief that the U.S. was involved in planning the coup against Goulart. This charge by COHA was made known in the 1970s, in a COHA report which was later referred to by a number of Brazilian publications, detailing the presence of an American aircraft carrier off the coast of the state of São Paulo, as part of a battle fleet.

This information was conveyed during an Amtrak train ride from Washington to New York, in a chance meeting between COHA director Larry Birns and a former U.S. Navy carrier pilot, who was stationed aboard that carrier, who explained that he and his U.S. naval colleagues were under orders to come to the aid of their Brazilian counterparts with their naval assets, if need be, if the coup that was being carried out had failed that day.

This is not to say that military cooperation between the two hemispheric giants does not exist today. Quite to the contrary, Washington appears keen on bringing Brazilian officials and military academics to the U.S. to study and attend specialized conferences and workshops.

For example, the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies (CHDS), part of the National Defense University (NDU), located in Washington D.C., has two Brazilian nationals on its faculty: Dr. Thomaz Guedes da Costa is Professor of National Security Affairs and formerly of the University of Brasília. Also on staff at CHDS is Colonel Rui C. Mesquita, a 1983 graduate of the Brazilian Air Force Academy. Mesquita is also an executive assistant to President Lula for four years.

More recently, a press release issued by the U.S. embassy in Brazil reported that, "for the first time in its existence, U.S. Army South has a foreign officer on its staff. Lt. Col. Raul Rodrigues de Oliveira, a Brazilian cavalry officer and UH-60 pilot, [who] began work as a Foreign Liaison Officer at U.S. Army South, the Army component of U.S. Southern Command."

Furthermore, according to Just The Facts, a research database administered by the Center for International Policy that monitors U.S. defense and security assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean, there has been significant military link between both countries. Between 1999 and 2006, there were 1,454 Brazilian military and police trainees in U.S. programs like the CHDS, the Army Logistics Management College and the Naval Post-Graduate School.

Interestingly there have not been any Brazilian trainees at the former School of the Americas (now called the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation, WHINSEC) in Fort Benning, Georgia, but that may be due to the fact that most courses there are taught in Spanish.

What's Next for the Brazilian Military?

Brazil's military is at a crossroads. It today faces no external security challenge, no matter what doomsayers may say about the putative intentions of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, yet the country does have a dark past in internal security matters. However, the average Brazilian believes and implicitly trusts in the military, and it can be assumed that the country's present-day military wants to live up to these expectations.

The Brazilian military is an example of an armed forces which, at least in its own belief, must be prepared to defend its own borders and safeguard its immense treasure trove of natural resources (including recent discoveries of oil and natural gas), while projecting its civic strengths to the world, be it through peacekeeping missions in Haiti, military exercises in South Africa, or the acquisition of a nuclear submarine.

There is a lot of potential for the expanding role of the Brazilian military in global affairs, but the type of legacy it will want to create is more than just a matter of possessing strong leadership and clearly defined goals - it must also have the means and the agreed-upon military doctrine to carry out its self-perceived mission in a democratic ambience and total submission to representative civilian rule.

This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Fellow Alex Sánchez. The Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) - www.coha.org - is a think tank established in 1975 to discuss and promote inter-American relationship. Email: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Comments (71)Add Comment
Dictatorship Cloud Hangs Over Brazil's Efforts to Assert Its Military Might
written by João da Silva, September 10, 2008
As usual, this magazine decided to give a sensational and alarming title to the article published in COHA website. The original title was:

"REPORT: The Brazilian Military Is Back, As It Fleshes Out Its Weaponry And Strategies".

However, the modified title is partially correct. I leave to our fellow bloggers to interpret my statement. smilies/wink.gif
COHA is definetely paid by the Disinformation Dept at the Planalto Palacio, Brasilia !!!!
written by ch.c., September 10, 2008
1)"Interestingly, the Brazilian armed forces have not been engaged in combat on its own continent in one way or another since the latter part of the 19th century,"

- Interestingly wrong ! The Brazilian Army intervened more than once in
SP and Rio. Short memory ?

2) On Haiti "The country does not need money, because there are already big international donors. The problem is: the money is there, but there are no projects."

- Pure lies for.....the money is there, but there are no projects."

3) "this year, the budget has reached US$ 5 billion. This is a relatively, an astounding figure, "

- another pure lie, here is the 2008 Brazilian Defense Budget from the Brazilian Ministry of Defense site : http://www2.camara.gov.br/inte...defesa.pdf
- 42,7 billion R$ for 2008 with nearly 45 % for.....PENSIONS ONLY !

Dear COHA, how much did you get paid to write such stupidities ?????


Last but not least, you of course and on purpose forgot to mention the state of the actual "war/defense material" :
" Only 267 or 37% of the Air Force's aircraft are operational, lack of maintenance and spare parts have grounded 452 aircraft.[13] Compounding this problem is the fact that 60% of the aircraft are 20 years old or older. [11]

The Navy is also facing difficulties. Not only the Navy has only 21 combat surface ships to patrol more than 7,000 km of coastline but also only 10 of those ships are operational.[11][14] Additionally, most operational ships are plagued with operating restrictions.[15] Of the Navy's 5 submarines, only one is fully operational, two others operate with restrictions and 27 or 46% of the Navy's 58 helicopters are inoperable.[11][16][17]

The Army is also facing challenges, 78% of all Army vehicles are 34 years or older and some trucks date from World War II.[11][18] General Enzo Martins Peri added the fact that most of the Army's artillery guns are also from World War II.[11][19] Of the Army's 1,437 armored vehicles over 40% are not combat ready and 40% or 2,670 of the Army's vehicles are not operational.[11] Lastly, the amount of ammunition stock is only 15% of what is recommended.[11]"

Sources : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Brazil

Furthermore on the US$ 5,6 billion stated, it is for new equipment.
But....but...but as per the Brazilian laws a voted budget in Brazil doesnt mean the amount will be spent, contrary to 90 % of countries on earth !
Strange but so it is....in Brazil !
" Brazilian budgets are authorizative, not mandatory.
If the law assigns R$ 1,000 to an item of the budget, all it means is that no more than R$ 1,000 may be spent on such item; it does not mean that the R$ 1,000 will be spent; it does not mean that even R$ 1 will be spent.
The process by which money is disemboursed to realize the budget is called budgetary execution (in Portuguese, "execução orçamentária").
It´s up to the Executive to coordinate the budgetary execution. The Executive controls how much revenue is being collected, and chooses which projects of the Budget will be carried out first. Obviously, some expenditures like personnel and debt service must follow a rigid schedule.

The Executive, however, can use the discretion to choose which amendments will be prioritized. And it´s a well known fact that the Deputies and Senators who are allies of the government have their amendments easierly approved, notably when the government needs votes to approve some controversial matters. This happened in government FHC, and still happens in government Lula.
Unethical as it can be, there is nothing to prevent the President from choosing which budgetary expenditures will be authorized. It´s the Brazilian law."

Sorry Alex Sanchez. Very cheap your voluntary errors to hide the sad truth !
Ch.c
written by João da Silva, September 10, 2008
Sorry Alex Sanchez. Very cheap your voluntary errors to hide the sad truth !


You don´t have to apologize to that fella. Just re-read the names of those ministers smilies/cheesy.gif. Do I have to tell you more? smilies/smiley.gif

Also, please do pay attention to the statement:

However, the modified title is partially correct.


Return of the "Head Ruler" as an Emperor in 2014? smilies/tongue.gif
'The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming'
written by AES, September 10, 2008
Well this of course doesnt mean anything, they are coming to do joint exercises with Venezuela. . .the recent recipient of billions of $'s in Russian, fighters, subs, guns, ammo, ships. I wonder if this is why the U.S. decided to resurrect its IV Fleet anticipating Russia planing operating bases out of Venezuelan waters. . .providing a counter point. Nothing in geo politics is happening randomly. The world only understands force, kindness is weakness and the best defense is best accomplished by Brazil spending the money it has allocated before the Real loses another 20% of its buying power.
The Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) - AGENDA
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 11, 2008
.
The Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) is a Washington, D.C.-based (NGO) founded in 1975. In its own words, it was established to "promote the common interests of the hemisphere from the point of view of the United States, raise the visibility of regional affairs and increase the importance of the inter-American relationship, as well as encourage the formulation of rational and constructive U.S. policies towards Latin America."

COHA is dedicated to monitoring Latin American affairs, especially within the context of U.S. foreign policy and its effect on the region. COHA also produces its bi-weekly publication, the Washington Report on the Hemisphere. It has been acknowledged and praised by members of the U.S. Congress, other media sources who rely on COHA for news regarding the Western Hemisphere, scholars, and individuals of various backgrounds who have an interest in the region.

The Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) has a traffic rank of 454,417 in the internet and as of September 11, 2008 the users of (COHA) website comes from: 82 % United States, 3 % Ecuador, 2 % Romania, 1 % Dominican Republic, 1 % Argentina, 1 % Panama and 10 % from all the other countries around the world.

Compared with Brazzil magazine’s traffic rank of 113,466 in the internet and as of September 11,2008 the users of Brazzil’s website comes from: 41 % China, 22 % United States, 15 % Brazil, 4 % UK, 4 % Japan, 2 % India, 2 % Germany, 1 % Canada, 1 % Russia, 1 % France, 1 % Egypt and 6 % from the rest of the world.

NOTE: After reading a few articles published by (COHA) experts, I came to the conclusion that their agenda is among other things to keep Brazil weak militarily and discourage the development of the Brazilian space program.

.
Latin America’s Space Race by COHA
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 11, 2008
.
Here are some excerpts from other articles published by the same author.


COHA
Alex Sánchez on Latin America’s Space Race
September 10, 2008

In 2006 Marcos Pontes, a Lieutenant Colonel in the Brazilian Air Force, became the first Brazilian national to go into space as a member of the crew of the Expedition-13. This event is both a landmark in Brazilian history as well as an interesting example of a developing science that has political, economic and security-related repercussions for space technology in Latin America.

Today, the area has made considerable progress in trying to break away from Washington’s traditional dominance. A home-grown hemispheric space program, with the aid of major outside powers like France, Russia and China, represents the latest round of this growing trend.

… Space technology provides a nation with a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it can be of great aid to Latin American countries, in order to improve telecommunication capabilities to isolated areas as well as monitoring environmental conditions. At the same time, space technology can easily be used for military means, spying on another country’s armed forces as well as hacking into closed security networks. Given the arms race that recently seems to be speeding up in parts of the region, very close oversight will be necessary by local governments and by the international community to insure that the space technology being developed in Latin America does not become another route for regional instability.

Examples of Independence

For the past several years, Latin American nations have been seeking a greater degree of political and economic independence from the U.S.; this has been evidenced by the rise of various varieties of left-leaning governments throughout the region that are cool to Washington on one degree or another.

For the most part, Latin American space programs are still in the phase of just beginning to taking their first shaky babysteps.

… Brazil in Space

Brazil is seriously weighing an independent space program, and has the most ambitious plans to reach this goal by means of its own space centre in Alcantara, Maranhao. Unfortunately, an explosion in 2003 destroyed most of the centre and killed 21 people. The explosion put the future of Brazil’s space program seriously in jeopardy at the time, with an investigation commission claiming that the accident could be traced back to insufficient funding and lax management. According to reports, the replacement facility will cost between $150-300 million. The goal is to make the new facilities to resemble the launch base in Taiyuan, the Chinese province of Shanxi. Sergio Rezende, Brazilian Minister of Science and Technology visited in the Chinese facilities in 2007, and also attended the launch of the CBERS-2B, China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite.

… External Aid to a Home-Grown Space Program

For the immediate and near future, Latin American countries will have to rely heavily on external powers for launching satellites, expertise, etc. Fortunately for them, nations with developed programs in the field are not short in supply or good will. Russia, China and the European Union (specifically France) all have developed space programs and have shown themselves to be more than willing to assist Latin American countries in their quest for free-standing space-programs.

… Arriba, Arriba and Away!

Latin American space programs being formulated in such countries as Brazil, Peru, Venezuela and Chile are still mainly in their infancy. They pose not the slightest prospect of challenging those being fielded by Washington, Paris, Moscow or Beijing. Nevertheless, such programs exist, and at some point, in the distant future, these countries may even be as bold as to aspire to be part of the decision making process currently going on about the militarization and future uses of space.

… Nevertheless, even in their current early stages, Latin American space programs have the possibility to change the security landscape of the region. Space is a way for a society to test its limits, but this must go hand in hand with responsible oversight by a civilian chain of command in each of the countries to make certain that these programs are not distorted by being militarized.

Source:

http://www.coha.org/2008/09/sp...-autonomy/


.
...two military barracks along the border with Brazil...
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 11, 2008

.
Here are some more excerpts from other articles published by the same author.


Defence & Arms
May 4th, 2007
The Grounds for Bolivia’s New Military Bases
By Alex Sanchez, COHA

…The Bases

Last May, the Bolivian and Venezuelan defense ministers signed the “Complementary Accord to the Basic Technical Cooperation Agreement in Defence between the Republic of Bolivia and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.” Many of the details regarding the proposed bases, other than their general locations, remain unclear. However, it has been reported that Caracas will assist in the construction of two military barracks along the border with Brazil at a total cost of $47 million. One of the proposed bases will be in the northeast department of Beni, which could house up to 2,500 soldiers, occupy an area of 1,025 hectares and have its own airport. A port will also be built in Puerto Quijarro of the Santa Cruz department, adjacent to the border with Brazil and around 200km from Paraguay.

Source: http://www.ocnus.net/cgi-bin/e...&num=26297


********


Brazil & Nukes: Lula Wants His Yellow Submarine
Council on Hemispheric Affairs - Oct 26, 2007

Nuclear-R-Us: Is Brazil's proposed Construction of a Nuclear Submarine the result of Imperial Ambitions or a matter of diving to the depths of pandering politics on Lula's part?

By Alex Sánchez, COHA Research Fellow

* Lula reignites the dream of the military junta: a nuclear submarine of its own.

* Washington derides Iran's and North Korea's nuclear plans but mums the word when it comes to Brazil

* Is the Brazilian navy expecting to be attacked on the high seas by some far off land, or, is a new militarized geopolitical strategy being evolved by Brasilia, or, is Lula merely being pressured by his military to acquire this trophy weapons system which could cost the nation upwards of a billion dollars, yet do little to augment Brazilian security?

* If Brazil goes ahead with its nuclear project, it may violate the spirit of the Treaty of Tlatelolco and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

* Who is going to provide Brazil with the necessary technology and advice it needs in order to successfully develop a nuclear submarine? Russia or China? Or will it be Brasilia's new sister pact members India and South Africa, or perhaps Iran with whom it has had a decade-long nuclear relationship.

Source:

http://www.blythe-systems.com/...70868.html



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Without Nukes a country belongs to Serie "B"
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 11, 2008

.
The Brazilian government should increase its the Defense budget to at least US$ 20 billion dollars and increase accordingly in the following years as Brazil become a more prominent country in world affairs.

The Brazilian government also should fund the Academia of Agulha Negras and bring that academia to the highest standards of education.

Among other things they should make an effort to make Agulhas Negras among the best Centers for Economics Studies in Brazil.

If Brazil want to become a real player in world affairs and become a country considered among the elite of the first world then here is the path that Brazil has to follow:


Brazzil Magazine – May 1, 2002
We Need the Bomb
By Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../2575.html


Brazzil Magazine – February 1, 2003
We Need the Bomb – Part II
By Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../2186.html


Brazzil Magazine – June 2003
Food for Nukes, the Answer for Brazil
By Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/2003/ht...4jun03.htm


NOTE: Regarding world affairs Brazil has a choice of becoming a member of Serie “A” or continues to be just one of the leaders of Serie “B”.

.
Number of hits since articles were published
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 11, 2008
Number of hits since articles were published:

Brazzil Magazine – May 1, 2002
We Need the Bomb
Hits: 5,061


Brazzil Magazine – February 1, 2003
We Need the Bomb – Part II
Hits: 5,752


Brazzil Magazine – June 2003
Food for Nukes, the Answer for Brazil
Hits: over 12,000

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fuzzy though
written by Forrest Allen Brown, September 11, 2008
and why does chaves need long range bombers in his country ??
and traning with the russians whitch also came with long range missle systems to be instaled in chaves front yard and able to hit lula back yard .

long range in military minds is to do harm from affar with out you country having to look up to see enmy planes in your skys

so with his new ships , planes , small arms factories .
oil deals with china and russia ,

and boliva expeling the US embassy staff looks to me like brazil needs to earn some friends in cloumbia , ecudor , arginita , and some first world countries

lula needs to quit bad mouthing helpers instead of giving reach arounds to chaves and morlas
Raytheon Company: Missile SystemsIntegrated Defense Systems
written by AES, September 11, 2008
Maybe starting with Lockheed Aegis Raytheon's missile defense system, would be passive agressive enough.

Raytheon Company: Missile SystemsIntegrated Defense Systems · Intelligence and Information Systems · Missile Systems ... Raytheon Missile Systems Receives a Perfect Score in Earned Value ...
www.raytheon.com/businesses/rms/ -
Funny...some comments ! Reality is quite different.
written by ch.c., September 11, 2008
- The Russians just want to irritate the USA, since The USA and Europe meddled when Russia attacked Georgia. USA and Europe are also against Russia that has recognized indepedent 2 small areas in Georgia.

Somewhat funny because both the USA and Europe are for freedom and independence, they disagree when it is against their own interests.
after the Kosovo vote for independence, everyone applauded and recognized their independence. Not so the Russians.
But when the Russians recognize independence of areas in their regions neither The USA or Europe agree.
I am certainly not Pro Russia in anyway, but admit neither the USA or Europe are fair.
A region in Spain is fighting for independence for decades, and no European country, let alone Spain, agree and accept.

Therefore wether it is Russia, the USA, China or Europe.......they are for independence of others ONLY if it arranges their own geo-political and economic
$ interests.

Very Sad.

What I am afraid is that disagreements will escalate and even accelerate and sooner or later we may very well have a very important crisis between the USA/Europe and Russia !
Or between country X in South America and country Y also in South America.
And country X will be defended by the USA and country Y by Russia.

Just remember how wars in Africa were not so long ago. Millions of people were killed.

Worse yet, part of the Angola war was against 2 mains local factions.

Therefore the same could happen again in a South American country. Ine faction being helped and armed by the USA and the other faction being helped and armed by Russia.

What is happening now could end up far more serious that you can think !
IMPORTANT POINTS BY CH.C & RICARDO AMARAL // Extrapolation by Augustus
written by AUGUSTUS, September 11, 2008
While these two bloggers may have distinct world views and political inspirations, each had contributed to KEY points regarding the Brazilian Military:

Namely:
Ch-c correctly indicated - “Only 267 or 37% of the Air Force's aircraft are operational, lack of maintenance and spare parts have grounded 452 aircraft. Compounding this problem is the fact that 60% of the aircraft are 20 years old or older.” // “The Navy is also facing difficulties. Not only the Navy has only 21 combat surface ships to patrol more than 7,000 km of coastline but also only 10 of those ships are operational.” // “The Army is also facing challenges, 78% of all Army vehicles are 34 years or older and some trucks date from World War II.”

Would anyone in his/her right mind consider the above dangerous state of affairs to continue unchallenged?

Moreover, how can any nation with the alleged “resources” and “political support” claimed by this article to consider wasting resources in “peace-keeping” missions in Haiti?

Finally Ch-c correctly concludes: “Unethical as it can be, there is nothing to prevent the President from choosing which budgetary expenditures will be authorized. It is the Brazilian law”
With all its corruption – where self-interested clicks of dishonest politicians who are ready to divert funds towards pet-projects (where most are eventually transferred either for bribes or outright theft – these individuals would surely support and approve budget increases for a strong military.

As for Ricardo Amaral, I fully endorse the following entry:
“Why does Chavez need long range bombers in his country??
And training with the Russians which also came with long range missile systems to be installed in Chavez front yard and able to hit Lula back yard .
Long range in military minds is to do harm from affair with out you country having to look up to see enemy planes in your skies”
ESPECIALLY WITH
… “Bolivia expelling the US embassy staff looks to me like Brazil needs to earn some friends in Colombia , Ecuador , Argentina , and some first world countries… Lula needs to quit bad mouthing helpers instead of giving reach around to Chavez and Morales”

There is NO QUESTION that Venezuela long term policy includes dominating or assuming complete Political, Economic & Military predominance of South America, utilizing weak, unviable & unstable regions such as the so-called Country of Bolivia… This argument in fact feeds and justifies the issue I have raised in Brazzil.Magg to the effect that we should have the “courage (and audacity) to question the very viability of a continued “weak & inconsistent” Bolivian state, which lacks common identity as well as a common purpose! I truly wonder whether the residents of the region might not be “better served” in the event the “factious nation of Bolivia” were to be dismembered and, having its original territory inevitably re-distributed to Chile, Peru, Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil (following a Regional Conference on the Matter to establish full details of Bolivian re-distribution and incorporation)”

I suppose this “idea” if ever (remotely) consider, would more than justify any significant increase of future budgets for the Brazilian military…
smilies/shocked.gif smilies/tongue.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/grin.gif
...
written by João da Silva, September 11, 2008
What is happening now could end up far more serious that you can think !


This is what I am thinking. Somehow we are going back to the Cold War days. The people who keep track of Geopolitics will readily agree with the statement. U.S. sending commandos into Pakistani territory, the Bolivians cutting off the gas supply to Brasil and Argentina, the Russians wanting to dismantle Georgia as well as arming Hugh Chavez to teeth, Robert Mugabe cheating the elections, French wanting to "help" build Submarines for us, etc;

The recent events in the world stage can indeed "end up far more serious than we think".
Augustus
written by João da Silva, September 11, 2008
You are wrong to attribute your following comments to Ricardo:

As for Ricardo Amaral, I fully endorse the following entry:
“Why does Chavez need long range bombers in his country??
And training with the Russians which also came with long range missile systems to be installed in Chavez front yard and able to hit Lula back yard .
Long range in military minds is to do harm from affair with out you country having to look up to see enemy planes in your skies”
ESPECIALLY WITH
… “Bolivia expelling the US embassy staff looks to me like Brazil needs to earn some friends in Colombia , Ecuador , Argentina , and some first world countries… Lula needs to quit bad mouthing helpers instead of giving reach around to Chavez and Morales”


Those were made by Forrest!! Is it the day off for Jeeves? smilies/wink.gif
JOAO - geopolitical assessment // my previous misquote - FOREST!!!
written by AUGUSTUS, September 11, 2008
President Evo Morales, who nationalized the energy industry two years ago, has in recent weeks sent troops to protect energy facilities after opposition protesters threatened to attack natural gas fields and pipelines.


I fully agree with Joao's geo-political assessment, with just on minor consideration: the presence of Islamic terrorist in the current "arena", which oppose both blocs would represent an interesting, dangerous additional factor in the equation... This second round of the EAST/WEST CONFLICT, I dare say is very unlikely to remain COLD and South America will unquestioningly become a new arena for military conflict...

As for my previous misquote, I must apologize to FOREST for misquoting him. At any rate, I fully agree with his comments which mirror my very feelings towards Venezuela

JOAO - you're right... If Jeeves is not around... I'm lost having to do everything myself!!!!
Einstein once said,
written by Forrest Allen Brown, September 11, 2008
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
Augustus
written by João da Silva, September 11, 2008
President Evo Morales, who nationalized the energy industry two years ago, has in recent weeks sent troops to protect energy facilities after opposition protesters threatened to attack natural gas fields and pipelines.


Except that the Army boss wanted a written order instructing him to take "energetic measures" to quell the riots. By asking for this written document, the General in charge was protecting himself and his troops against any future law suits. Of course, Evo is dillydallying about it.

The situation seems to be turning ugly. Even though originally the Brazilian press came out with the news that only 10% of the gas supply to Brasil has been cut, another "incident" occurred last night. The protesters sabotaged equipment in another place and now they are talking about a 55% cut. It would take around 20 days to repair the facilities and Petrobras´s contract with them has incorporated a penalty clause in which Bolivia is supposed to pay a daily fine if the supply is interrupted.

If my memory serves me well, Bolivia got its Independence from Spain in 1825. Since then there have been around 150 Coups. I would be surprised if Evo lasts till the end of this year. I wonder if the dirty hands of Hugo Chavez are also involved in this crisis.
A possible International incident?
written by AUGUSTUS, September 11, 2008
Unfortunately, one cannot even call for the Brazilian military to directly intervene, even though the fragile Brazilian economy will suffer a great deal. Assuming the Joao's latest reports, this additional incident is bound to bring Sao Paulo to a halt!

As you know the USA would not think twice if Mexico were to experience the same type of difficulties...

Joao - while you are probably correct, regarding Chavez' hands being behind this issue, I wonder if he would take a chance by further de-stabilizing his closest ally... (Even if pursuing distinct goals)
Augustus
written by João da Silva, September 11, 2008
Unfortunately, one cannot even call for the Brazilian military to directly intervene, even though the fragile Brazilian economy will suffer a great deal. Assuming the Joao's latest reports, this additional incident is bound to bring Sao Paulo to a halt!


There have been conflicting reports regarding the gas supply to Brazil. I do not think that it is going to bring SP to a halt as the latest news says that the supply has been restored. Please read the following link:

Unfortunately, one cannot even call for the Brazilian military to directly intervene, even though the fragile Brazilian economy will suffer a great deal. Assuming the Joao's latest reports, this additional incident is bound to bring Sao Paulo to a halt!


I also read that both Lula and Chavez are supporting Evo and Hugo is threatening to use his armed forces to maintain Evo in power. Will keep you posted.
Augustus
written by João da Silva, September 11, 2008
Sorry, instead of copying the link and posting it, I copied a part of your comments! Here is the link:

http://www.estadao.com.br/econ...0028,0.htm
JOAO - This is Shocking! Logical conclusion - Proposal
written by AUGUSTUS, September 11, 2008
My proposal – Based on the map which illustrated the link for estadao.com http://www.estadao.com.br/econ...028,0.htm:
Pando and Beni = for Peru
La Paz Oruro = for Chile
Potosi Cohabanba = for Argentina
Santa Cruz (north & West of Temeletrica = forBrazil
Santa Cruz (sout & East of Temeletrica = for Paraguay



Augustus
written by João da Silva, September 11, 2008
JOAO - This is Shocking! Logical conclusion - Proposal


You are too blood thirsty, Old Chap. There is no point in dismembering Bolivia and get us into more trouble. Give part of it to Paraguay, Argentina, Chile and Peru? No way. Look at this way. The next flash point is going to be Paraguay (because of Itaipu). I would rather let the "Spanish Empire" to solve the problems of Spanish America and the Portuguese America keeps clear of the "Pentelhos". We keep our existing friends and make new ones. That is one reason why I don't go overboard about UNASUL (Which Ch.c sarcastically refers to as "UNSURE").

Unfortunately, the "Current Rulers" in power do not understand that we are different from "Spanish America" and have to chalk out our own destiny. In order to do so, we have to "Valorizar" our educated Middle Class. BUT..BUT, what do you expect out of "Proletariat" in power?

btw, do you really think that we need a Nuclear Submarine? Your comments will be highly appreciated by me, if not by others. smilies/grin.gif
Joao....
written by AUGUSTUS, September 11, 2008
You make me laugh... Honestly!

If only I could have "Jeeves" bring me a bottle of Port - special 1887 vintage - Queen Victoria’s Golden Jubilee's special vintage, cases of which were kept closed away for 30 years, for they were not be deemed "ready to drink" until then - 1917!!!!

Just to think about the price of any such bottle today (91 years after the "ideal date") I drop into dismay and reflection... I should truly have been there, then… Not here now …

For some reason, that's precisely what I would need right now, a full glass of ’87 port...
chaves
written by Forrest Allen Brown, September 12, 2008
now sending out the US embassy and calling his own back from the US .

i think it is time to cut all money the US sends to booth countries and let them do for there own .

IF chaves and others in SA would look they could kill OPEC hold on oil price as they could start there own and set the price per barrel just under theres and people would come running at them .

but then all in the group would have to build the oil interstura to do this and maintain it .

the US will not let countrise fall to outside hands .
the navy was not set up to protect oil but to protect shiping and peoples
DOES BRAZIL NEED A NUCLEAR SUBMARINE?
written by AUGUSTUS, September 12, 2008
This is a complex question regarding a multifaceted issue.
At first sight, I would promptly forward the notion that it appears absurd spending so many resources, time and effort in a project which does not appear to represent a realistic project, not only in light of the current needs of the Brazilian military and particular in the context of other, more crucial segments of Brazilian society and economy which would warrant preferential care and attention for the resources under consideration: the appalling status of education, the worsening of security, law & order within the megalopolis axis Rio-Sao Paulo , and the shameful, crumbling national infra-structure (mostly due to the inability of successive administrations to conduct the required maintenance of previously mega-projects which includes dams, port facilities, air traffic control, power plants, and roads - including a deficient rail network)…

However, any major nation, even those with vast segments of uneducated, impoverished, and destitute population segments, must be poised to embrace the future along with the incalculable scientific challenges it automatically imply. As such, in order to face the trials which this century will certainly impose, Brazil (along with other emerging countries) must be willing to embrace the necessary technological advances deemed indispensible for further development of the very infra-structure it must address, to be in position for important task of protecting its the enormous coast line (along with crucial oil rigs), along with the fundamental need to access the required skills & expertise for continued scientific progress. Furthermore, because the successful attainment of these goals can be easily extrapolated for employment into a great variety of additional, fundamental projects required for the nation’s benefit, I feel inclined to lend my full support for the development A Nuclear Submarine (provided Brasilia secures the necessary technical support from Paris).

As much as we need to concentrate on the education and improvement of life conditions of our vast disenfranchised populations, I must urge all sectors of society to recognize the unprecedented need for the enrichment of the nation’s economic, infra-structural, and overall scientific knowledge (including further development of a safe & secure space platform in Maranhao), without which no Regional Power would be in a position to claim itself as such.
Augustus
written by João da Silva, September 12, 2008
DOES BRAZIL NEED A NUCLEAR SUBMARINE?


Thank you very much for your long comment in your customary rich prose which was highly appreciated by me and I am sure also by the ones in the Whitehall. It is easy to discern that you have no experience in modern warfare (and I suspect that you mind is still in the era of bows,arrows,swords and other sharp metallic instruments that were used to wage warfare).

Having said that let me ask you the following questions and make some observations:

1) Who is our enemy that is supposed to invade our country using the sea route?
2) Will one nuclear powered submarine be enough to protect our 5000 Miles of our (beautiful,but somewhat polluted) coast?. You have to remember that half of our Naval fleet is not operational due to poor or lack of maintenance.
3) There are other ways to protect our coast from the marauding invaders by setting up Air Patrols for which we have adequate technology developed by our Engineers (graduates of IME, ITA and the Federal Universities).
4) Instead of building one Nuclear Submarine, why don't we use the technology to build Nuclear plants in the interior of the country (instead of coming out with grandiose projects like diverting the Amazon River to irrigate the Nordeste or for generating power (Rio Madeira). In such case, we will still be able to develop our nuclear technology for peaceful purposes thus generating jobs for qualified technical personnel as well as researchers.

5)Even if we insist on building a Nuclear Sub, why go for French technology. Why not shop around?

6) I really do not believe that we are going to project ourselves as a "Regional Power" by building one Nuclear Sub and let it rust at the naval dockyard. Instead, we have to strengthen our Land and Air defenses, because we have borders with a dozen countries some of which don't like us much (smilies/cheesy.gif). The threat from the sea can be countered by repairing all our vessels and make them operational (Spend money on maintenance) and buying (from EMBRAER) low flying reconnaissance aircraft that can be stationed in bases along our 5000 Mile coast.

Let me finalize my comments by saying: If the Government wants to go ahead and build a Nuclear sub, there is no way you or I have the power to prevent it. The only thing we can do is to suggest a suitable name for it. smilies/wink.gif
...
written by AES, September 12, 2008
The B.S. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the first nuclear powered Brazillian submarine. And nothing can go wrong, and nothing can go wrong. . .

Some accidents related to the nuclear power supply have happened over the years, especially in the Soviet Navy.

K-19, 1961, reactor almost had a meltdown and explosion, which might have started a nuclear war. Several of the crew died of radiation exposure. It is dramatized by a film.
K-219, 1986, reactor almost had a meltdown and explosion, which might have contaminated the eastern seaboard of the US. Sergei Preminin died after he manually lowered the control rods, and stopped the explosion.
JOAO – Valid arguments // Weighted Query?
written by AUGUSTUS, September 12, 2008
You are correct by suggesting that I lack experience in modern warfare, for I may always be bound to the World when Great Britain ruled the Planet. Yet, while my mind does not lie in the era of bows, arrows, swords and other sharp metallic instruments (as you put it), regarding technological advances, I have the proclivity to concentrate in the era when the magnificent battleships of the turn of the 20th century were introduced – most notably HMS Dreadnoughts (a heavily armed battleship introduced into the principal navies after the experiences of the Russo-Japanese War in 1906).

The crux of the matter, however, lies on the point we both have made, namely, the need to further develop nuclear technology. My emphasis on the French assistance was based on the great difficulty to develop it alone (or even with Argentina) along with the reluctance from Washington to provide any nuclear related knowledge transfer to non-nuclear nations.

Granted we CURRENTLY have no enemy likely to attack the coast line; yet I wonder if perhaps you have a crystal ball (or otherwise an Oracle assurance) that this will remain the case in the near future? Furthermore, I dare say that the pre-salt deposits are pretty much concentrated along a specific section ranging from Espirito Santo to Sao Paulo coast; therefore, monitoring this relatively small area, concealed under waters, might prove to be an extra benefit… But what do I know?

At any rate, you since you had asked for my opinion on this particular issue, probably presuming certain specific (unknown) criteria; to which my humble views were provided, completely unaware of any “weighted hint” therein, or of the expected type of response…
AES
written by João da Silva, September 12, 2008
The B.S. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the first nuclear powered Brazillian submarine. And nothing can go wrong, and nothing can go wrong. .


Congratulations for coming out with a concrete suggestion. I don't think that there is a single soul in this blog who would overrule your suggested name for the new vessel smilies/grin.gif

K-19, 1961, reactor almost had a meltdown and explosion, which might have started a nuclear war. Several of the crew died of radiation exposure. It is dramatized by a film.


K-19, The Widow Maker? You must have watched it several times like I did. Good lesson can be taken out of that movie.

K-219? I did not know about this alarming episode. Shall Google and find out.

I think you been seeing too many horror movies lately, Aes.
Augustus
written by João da Silva, September 12, 2008
The crux of the matter, however, lies on the point we both have made, namely, the need to further develop nuclear technology. My emphasis on the French assistance was based on the great difficulty to develop it alone (or even with Argentina) along with the reluctance from Washington to provide any nuclear related knowledge transfer to non-nuclear nations.


Just to put you in par with the situation with regards "the reluctance from Washington to provide any nuclear related knowledge transfer to non-nuclear nations", I must point out that Washington is very keen to sell U.S. technology to India to build reactors for peaceful purposes. Guess what, some Brazilian companies in the Nuclear field are also interested in selling their equipment to India.

If U.S. is not willing, we can always seek for the assistance of Canada.It is all a question of diplomatic and trade negotiations and I am sure you will readily agree with me.

At any rate, you since you had asked for my opinion on this particular issue, probably presuming certain specific (unknown) criteria; to which my humble views were provided, completely unaware of any “weighted hint” therein, or of the expected type of response…


Your "humble" views were,are and will be sought after. You just feel free to express your views, without any restrictions. smilies/cheesy.gif
My humble suggestion for naming the new vessel
written by AUGUSTUS, September 12, 2008
I would NEVER even jokingly name ever a mere paper kite after the incompetent low-class semi illiterate moron who was elected as a “ruler” of Brazil!!!...

My vote for the submarine name, which would probably not surprise Joao – or other bloggers who are accustomed to my views – would be based on the golden Era of Brazilian History, namely = "HMS PEDRO II" who was a remarkable Sovereign, and a highly educated prince several years ahead of his time... (the Brazilian version of the illustrious Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha – consort to Queen Victoria)
Alternatively the vessel could be named "HMS GUANABARA"

(Bearing in mind I ignore the symbols preceding Brazilian Vessels - equivalent to USS in the United States, and HMS in the United Kingdom)
Joao - brief remark (US vs. India)
written by AUGUSTUS, September 12, 2008
Because New Delhi has already successfully detonated a nuclear bomb, and because the horrific George Bush has already signed nuclear