Brazzil

As usual, this magazine decided to give a sensational and alarming title to the article published in COHA website. The original title was:

"REPORT: The Brazilian Military Is Back, As It Fleshes Out Its Weaponry And Strategies".

However, the modified title is partially correct. I leave to our fellow bloggers to interpret my statement.

1)"Interestingly, the Brazilian armed forces have not been engaged in combat on its own continent in one way or another since the latter part of the 19th century,"

- Interestingly wrong ! The Brazilian Army intervened more than once in
SP and Rio. Short memory ?

2) On Haiti "The country does not need money, because there are already big international donors. The problem is: the money is there, but there are no projects."

- Pure lies for.....the money is there, but there are no projects."

3) "this year, the budget has reached US$ 5 billion. This is a relatively, an astounding figure, "

- another pure lie, here is the 2008 Brazilian Defense Budget from the Brazilian Ministry of Defense site : http://www2.camara.gov.br/inte...defesa.pdf
- 42,7 billion R$ for 2008 with nearly 45 % for.....PENSIONS ONLY !

Dear COHA, how much did you get paid to write such stupidities ?????


Last but not least, you of course and on purpose forgot to mention the state of the actual "war/defense material" :
" Only 267 or 37% of the Air Force's aircraft are operational, lack of maintenance and spare parts have grounded 452 aircraft.[13] Compounding this problem is the fact that 60% of the aircraft are 20 years old or older. [11]

The Navy is also facing difficulties. Not only the Navy has only 21 combat surface ships to patrol more than 7,000 km of coastline but also only 10 of those ships are operational.[11][14] Additionally, most operational ships are plagued with operating restrictions.[15] Of the Navy's 5 submarines, only one is fully operational, two others operate with restrictions and 27 or 46% of the Navy's 58 helicopters are inoperable.[11][16][17]

The Army is also facing challenges, 78% of all Army vehicles are 34 years or older and some trucks date from World War II.[11][18] General Enzo Martins Peri added the fact that most of the Army's artillery guns are also from World War II.[11][19] Of the Army's 1,437 armored vehicles over 40% are not combat ready and 40% or 2,670 of the Army's vehicles are not operational.[11] Lastly, the amount of ammunition stock is only 15% of what is recommended.[11]"

Sources : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Brazil

Furthermore on the US$ 5,6 billion stated, it is for new equipment.
But....but...but as per the Brazilian laws a voted budget in Brazil doesnt mean the amount will be spent, contrary to 90 % of countries on earth !
Strange but so it is....in Brazil !
" Brazilian budgets are authorizative, not mandatory.
If the law assigns R$ 1,000 to an item of the budget, all it means is that no more than R$ 1,000 may be spent on such item; it does not mean that the R$ 1,000 will be spent; it does not mean that even R$ 1 will be spent.
The process by which money is disemboursed to realize the budget is called budgetary execution (in Portuguese, "execução orçamentária").
It´s up to the Executive to coordinate the budgetary execution. The Executive controls how much revenue is being collected, and chooses which projects of the Budget will be carried out first. Obviously, some expenditures like personnel and debt service must follow a rigid schedule.

The Executive, however, can use the discretion to choose which amendments will be prioritized. And it´s a well known fact that the Deputies and Senators who are allies of the government have their amendments easierly approved, notably when the government needs votes to approve some controversial matters. This happened in government FHC, and still happens in government Lula.
Unethical as it can be, there is nothing to prevent the President from choosing which budgetary expenditures will be authorized. It´s the Brazilian law."

Sorry Alex Sanchez. Very cheap your voluntary errors to hide the sad truth !

Sorry Alex Sanchez. Very cheap your voluntary errors to hide the sad truth !

You don´t have to apologize to that fella. Just re-read the names of those ministers . Do I have to tell you more?

Also, please do pay attention to the statement:

However, the modified title is partially correct.

Return of the "Head Ruler" as an Emperor in 2014?

Well this of course doesnt mean anything, they are coming to do joint exercises with Venezuela. . .the recent recipient of billions of $'s in Russian, fighters, subs, guns, ammo, ships. I wonder if this is why the U.S. decided to resurrect its IV Fleet anticipating Russia planing operating bases out of Venezuelan waters. . .providing a counter point. Nothing in geo politics is happening randomly. The world only understands force, kindness is weakness and the best defense is best accomplished by Brazil spending the money it has allocated before the Real loses another 20% of its buying power.

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The Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) is a Washington, D.C.-based (NGO) founded in 1975. In its own words, it was established to "promote the common interests of the hemisphere from the point of view of the United States, raise the visibility of regional affairs and increase the importance of the inter-American relationship, as well as encourage the formulation of rational and constructive U.S. policies towards Latin America."

COHA is dedicated to monitoring Latin American affairs, especially within the context of U.S. foreign policy and its effect on the region. COHA also produces its bi-weekly publication, the Washington Report on the Hemisphere. It has been acknowledged and praised by members of the U.S. Congress, other media sources who rely on COHA for news regarding the Western Hemisphere, scholars, and individuals of various backgrounds who have an interest in the region.

The Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) has a traffic rank of 454,417 in the internet and as of September 11, 2008 the users of (COHA) website comes from: 82 % United States, 3 % Ecuador, 2 % Romania, 1 % Dominican Republic, 1 % Argentina, 1 % Panama and 10 % from all the other countries around the world.

Compared with Brazzil magazine’s traffic rank of 113,466 in the internet and as of September 11,2008 the users of Brazzil’s website comes from: 41 % China, 22 % United States, 15 % Brazil, 4 % UK, 4 % Japan, 2 % India, 2 % Germany, 1 % Canada, 1 % Russia, 1 % France, 1 % Egypt and 6 % from the rest of the world.

NOTE: After reading a few articles published by (COHA) experts, I came to the conclusion that their agenda is among other things to keep Brazil weak militarily and discourage the development of the Brazilian space program.

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Here are some excerpts from other articles published by the same author.


COHA
Alex Sánchez on Latin America’s Space Race
September 10, 2008

In 2006 Marcos Pontes, a Lieutenant Colonel in the Brazilian Air Force, became the first Brazilian national to go into space as a member of the crew of the Expedition-13. This event is both a landmark in Brazilian history as well as an interesting example of a developing science that has political, economic and security-related repercussions for space technology in Latin America.

Today, the area has made considerable progress in trying to break away from Washington’s traditional dominance. A home-grown hemispheric space program, with the aid of major outside powers like France, Russia and China, represents the latest round of this growing trend.

… Space technology provides a nation with a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it can be of great aid to Latin American countries, in order to improve telecommunication capabilities to isolated areas as well as monitoring environmental conditions. At the same time, space technology can easily be used for military means, spying on another country’s armed forces as well as hacking into closed security networks. Given the arms race that recently seems to be speeding up in parts of the region, very close oversight will be necessary by local governments and by the international community to insure that the space technology being developed in Latin America does not become another route for regional instability.

Examples of Independence

For the past several years, Latin American nations have been seeking a greater degree of political and economic independence from the U.S.; this has been evidenced by the rise of various varieties of left-leaning governments throughout the region that are cool to Washington on one degree or another.

For the most part, Latin American space programs are still in the phase of just beginning to taking their first shaky babysteps.

… Brazil in Space

Brazil is seriously weighing an independent space program, and has the most ambitious plans to reach this goal by means of its own space centre in Alcantara, Maranhao. Unfortunately, an explosion in 2003 destroyed most of the centre and killed 21 people. The explosion put the future of Brazil’s space program seriously in jeopardy at the time, with an investigation commission claiming that the accident could be traced back to insufficient funding and lax management. According to reports, the replacement facility will cost between $150-300 million. The goal is to make the new facilities to resemble the launch base in Taiyuan, the Chinese province of Shanxi. Sergio Rezende, Brazilian Minister of Science and Technology visited in the Chinese facilities in 2007, and also attended the launch of the CBERS-2B, China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite.

… External Aid to a Home-Grown Space Program

For the immediate and near future, Latin American countries will have to rely heavily on external powers for launching satellites, expertise, etc. Fortunately for them, nations with developed programs in the field are not short in supply or good will. Russia, China and the European Union (specifically France) all have developed space programs and have shown themselves to be more than willing to assist Latin American countries in their quest for free-standing space-programs.

… Arriba, Arriba and Away!

Latin American space programs being formulated in such countries as Brazil, Peru, Venezuela and Chile are still mainly in their infancy. They pose not the slightest prospect of challenging those being fielded by Washington, Paris, Moscow or Beijing. Nevertheless, such programs exist, and at some point, in the distant future, these countries may even be as bold as to aspire to be part of the decision making process currently going on about the militarization and future uses of space.

… Nevertheless, even in their current early stages, Latin American space programs have the possibility to change the security landscape of the region. Space is a way for a society to test its limits, but this must go hand in hand with responsible oversight by a civilian chain of command in each of the countries to make certain that these programs are not distorted by being militarized.

Source:

http://www.coha.org/2008/09/sp...-autonomy/


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Here are some more excerpts from other articles published by the same author.


Defence & Arms
May 4th, 2007
The Grounds for Bolivia’s New Military Bases
By Alex Sanchez, COHA

…The Bases

Last May, the Bolivian and Venezuelan defense ministers signed the “Complementary Accord to the Basic Technical Cooperation Agreement in Defence between the Republic of Bolivia and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.” Many of the details regarding the proposed bases, other than their general locations, remain unclear. However, it has been reported that Caracas will assist in the construction of two military barracks along the border with Brazil at a total cost of $47 million. One of the proposed bases will be in the northeast department of Beni, which could house up to 2,500 soldiers, occupy an area of 1,025 hectares and have its own airport. A port will also be built in Puerto Quijarro of the Santa Cruz department, adjacent to the border with Brazil and around 200km from Paraguay.

Source: http://www.ocnus.net/cgi-bin/e...&num=26297


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Brazil & Nukes: Lula Wants His Yellow Submarine
Council on Hemispheric Affairs - Oct 26, 2007

Nuclear-R-Us: Is Brazil's proposed Construction of a Nuclear Submarine the result of Imperial Ambitions or a matter of diving to the depths of pandering politics on Lula's part?

By Alex Sánchez, COHA Research Fellow

* Lula reignites the dream of the military junta: a nuclear submarine of its own.

* Washington derides Iran's and North Korea's nuclear plans but mums the word when it comes to Brazil

* Is the Brazilian navy expecting to be attacked on the high seas by some far off land, or, is a new militarized geopolitical strategy being evolved by Brasilia, or, is Lula merely being pressured by his military to acquire this trophy weapons system which could cost the nation upwards of a billion dollars, yet do little to augment Brazilian security?

* If Brazil goes ahead with its nuclear project, it may violate the spirit of the Treaty of Tlatelolco and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

* Who is going to provide Brazil with the necessary technology and advice it needs in order to successfully develop a nuclear submarine? Russia or China? Or will it be Brasilia's new sister pact members India and South Africa, or perhaps Iran with whom it has had a decade-long nuclear relationship.

Source:

http://www.blythe-systems.com/...70868.html



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The Brazilian government should increase its the Defense budget to at least US$ 20 billion dollars and increase accordingly in the following years as Brazil become a more prominent country in world affairs.

The Brazilian government also should fund the Academia of Agulha Negras and bring that academia to the highest standards of education.

Among other things they should make an effort to make Agulhas Negras among the best Centers for Economics Studies in Brazil.

If Brazil want to become a real player in world affairs and become a country considered among the elite of the first world then here is the path that Brazil has to follow:


Brazzil Magazine – May 1, 2002
We Need the Bomb
By Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../2575.html


Brazzil Magazine – February 1, 2003
We Need the Bomb – Part II
By Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../2186.html


Brazzil Magazine – June 2003
Food for Nukes, the Answer for Brazil
By Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/2003/ht...4jun03.htm


NOTE: Regarding world affairs Brazil has a choice of becoming a member of Serie “A” or continues to be just one of the leaders of Serie “B”.

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Number of hits since articles were published:

Brazzil Magazine – May 1, 2002
We Need the Bomb
Hits: 5,061


Brazzil Magazine – February 1, 2003
We Need the Bomb – Part II
Hits: 5,752


Brazzil Magazine – June 2003
Food for Nukes, the Answer for Brazil
Hits: over 12,000

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and why does chaves need long range bombers in his country ??
and traning with the russians whitch also came with long range missle systems to be instaled in chaves front yard and able to hit lula back yard .

long range in military minds is to do harm from affar with out you country having to look up to see enmy planes in your skys

so with his new ships , planes , small arms factories .
oil deals with china and russia ,

and boliva expeling the US embassy staff looks to me like brazil needs to earn some friends in cloumbia , ecudor , arginita , and some first world countries

lula needs to quit bad mouthing helpers instead of giving reach arounds to chaves and morlas

Maybe starting with Lockheed Aegis Raytheon's missile defense system, would be passive agressive enough.

Raytheon Company: Missile SystemsIntegrated Defense Systems · Intelligence and Information Systems · Missile Systems ... Raytheon Missile Systems Receives a Perfect Score in Earned Value ...
www.raytheon.com/businesses/rms/ -

- The Russians just want to irritate the USA, since The USA and Europe meddled when Russia attacked Georgia. USA and Europe are also against Russia that has recognized indepedent 2 small areas in Georgia.

Somewhat funny because both the USA and Europe are for freedom and independence, they disagree when it is against their own interests.
after the Kosovo vote for independence, everyone applauded and recognized their independence. Not so the Russians.
But when the Russians recognize independence of areas in their regions neither The USA or Europe agree.
I am certainly not Pro Russia in anyway, but admit neither the USA or Europe are fair.
A region in Spain is fighting for independence for decades, and no European country, let alone Spain, agree and accept.

Therefore wether it is Russia, the USA, China or Europe.......they are for independence of others ONLY if it arranges their own geo-political and economic
$ interests.

Very Sad.

What I am afraid is that disagreements will escalate and even accelerate and sooner or later we may very well have a very important crisis between the USA/Europe and Russia !
Or between country X in South America and country Y also in South America.
And country X will be defended by the USA and country Y by Russia.

Just remember how wars in Africa were not so long ago. Millions of people were killed.

Worse yet, part of the Angola war was against 2 mains local factions.

Therefore the same could happen again in a South American country. Ine faction being helped and armed by the USA and the other faction being helped and armed by Russia.

What is happening now could end up far more serious that you can think !

While these two bloggers may have distinct world views and political inspirations, each had contributed to KEY points regarding the Brazilian Military:

Namely:
Ch-c correctly indicated - “Only 267 or 37% of the Air Force's aircraft are operational, lack of maintenance and spare parts have grounded 452 aircraft. Compounding this problem is the fact that 60% of the aircraft are 20 years old or older.” // “The Navy is also facing difficulties. Not only the Navy has only 21 combat surface ships to patrol more than 7,000 km of coastline but also only 10 of those ships are operational.” // “The Army is also facing challenges, 78% of all Army vehicles are 34 years or older and some trucks date from World War II.”

Would anyone in his/her right mind consider the above dangerous state of affairs to continue unchallenged?

Moreover, how can any nation with the alleged “resources” and “political support” claimed by this article to consider wasting resources in “peace-keeping” missions in Haiti?

Finally Ch-c correctly concludes: “Unethical as it can be, there is nothing to prevent the President from choosing which budgetary expenditures will be authorized. It is the Brazilian law”
With all its corruption – where self-interested clicks of dishonest politicians who are ready to divert funds towards pet-projects (where most are eventually transferred either for bribes or outright theft – these individuals would surely support and approve budget increases for a strong military.

As for Ricardo Amaral, I fully endorse the following entry:
“Why does Chavez need long range bombers in his country??
And training with the Russians which also came with long range missile systems to be installed in Chavez front yard and able to hit Lula back yard .
Long range in military minds is to do harm from affair with out you country having to look up to see enemy planes in your skies”
ESPECIALLY WITH
… “Bolivia expelling the US embassy staff looks to me like Brazil needs to earn some friends in Colombia , Ecuador , Argentina , and some first world countries… Lula needs to quit bad mouthing helpers instead of giving reach around to Chavez and Morales”

There is NO QUESTION that Venezuela long term policy includes dominating or assuming complete Political, Economic & Military predominance of South America, utilizing weak, unviable & unstable regions such as the so-called Country of Bolivia… This argument in fact feeds and justifies the issue I have raised in Brazzil.Magg to the effect that we should have the “courage (and audacity) to question the very viability of a continued “weak & inconsistent” Bolivian state, which lacks common identity as well as a common purpose! I truly wonder whether the residents of the region might not be “better served” in the event the “factious nation of Bolivia” were to be dismembered and, having its original territory inevitably re-distributed to Chile, Peru, Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil (following a Regional Conference on the Matter to establish full details of Bolivian re-distribution and incorporation)”

I suppose this “idea” if ever (remotely) consider, would more than justify any significant increase of future budgets for the Brazilian military…

What is happening now could end up far more serious that you can think !

This is what I am thinking. Somehow we are going back to the Cold War days. The people who keep track of Geopolitics will readily agree with the statement. U.S. sending commandos into Pakistani territory, the Bolivians cutting off the gas supply to Brasil and Argentina, the Russians wanting to dismantle Georgia as well as arming Hugh Chavez to teeth, Robert Mugabe cheating the elections, French wanting to "help" build Submarines for us, etc;

The recent events in the world stage can indeed "end up far more serious than we think".

You are wrong to attribute your following comments to Ricardo:

As for Ricardo Amaral, I fully endorse the following entry:
“Why does Chavez need long range bombers in his country??
And training with the Russians which also came with long range missile systems to be installed in Chavez front yard and able to hit Lula back yard .
Long range in military minds is to do harm from affair with out you country having to look up to see enemy planes in your skies”
ESPECIALLY WITH
… “Bolivia expelling the US embassy staff looks to me like Brazil needs to earn some friends in Colombia , Ecuador , Argentina , and some first world countries… Lula needs to quit bad mouthing helpers instead of giving reach around to Chavez and Morales”

Those were made by Forrest!! Is it the day off for Jeeves?

President Evo Morales, who nationalized the energy industry two years ago, has in recent weeks sent troops to protect energy facilities after opposition protesters threatened to attack natural gas fields and pipelines.


I fully agree with Joao's geo-political assessment, with just on minor consideration: the presence of Islamic terrorist in the current "arena", which oppose both blocs would represent an interesting, dangerous additional factor in the equation... This second round of the EAST/WEST CONFLICT, I dare say is very unlikely to remain COLD and South America will unquestioningly become a new arena for military conflict...

As for my previous misquote, I must apologize to FOREST for misquoting him. At any rate, I fully agree with his comments which mirror my very feelings towards Venezuela

JOAO - you're right... If Jeeves is not around... I'm lost having to do everything myself!!!!

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

President Evo Morales, who nationalized the energy industry two years ago, has in recent weeks sent troops to protect energy facilities after opposition protesters threatened to attack natural gas fields and pipelines.

Except that the Army boss wanted a written order instructing him to take "energetic measures" to quell the riots. By asking for this written document, the General in charge was protecting himself and his troops against any future law suits. Of course, Evo is dillydallying about it.

The situation seems to be turning ugly. Even though originally the Brazilian press came out with the news that only 10% of the gas supply to Brasil has been cut, another "incident" occurred last night. The protesters sabotaged equipment in another place and now they are talking about a 55% cut. It would take around 20 days to repair the facilities and Petrobras´s contract with them has incorporated a penalty clause in which Bolivia is supposed to pay a daily fine if the supply is interrupted.

If my memory serves me well, Bolivia got its Independence from Spain in 1825. Since then there have been around 150 Coups. I would be surprised if Evo lasts till the end of this year. I wonder if the dirty hands of Hugo Chavez are also involved in this crisis.

Unfortunately, one cannot even call for the Brazilian military to directly intervene, even though the fragile Brazilian economy will suffer a great deal. Assuming the Joao's latest reports, this additional incident is bound to bring Sao Paulo to a halt!

As you know the USA would not think twice if Mexico were to experience the same type of difficulties...

Joao - while you are probably correct, regarding Chavez' hands being behind this issue, I wonder if he would take a chance by further de-stabilizing his closest ally... (Even if pursuing distinct goals)

Unfortunately, one cannot even call for the Brazilian military to directly intervene, even though the fragile Brazilian economy will suffer a great deal. Assuming the Joao's latest reports, this additional incident is bound to bring Sao Paulo to a halt!

There have been conflicting reports regarding the gas supply to Brazil. I do not think that it is going to bring SP to a halt as the latest news says that the supply has been restored. Please read the following link:

Unfortunately, one cannot even call for the Brazilian military to directly intervene, even though the fragile Brazilian economy will suffer a great deal. Assuming the Joao's latest reports, this additional incident is bound to bring Sao Paulo to a halt!


I also read that both Lula and Chavez are supporting Evo and Hugo is threatening to use his armed forces to maintain Evo in power. Will keep you posted.

Sorry, instead of copying the link and posting it, I copied a part of your comments! Here is the link:

http://www.estadao.com.br/econ...0028,0.htm

My proposal – Based on the map which illustrated the link for estadao.com http://www.estadao.com.br/econ...028,0.htm:
Pando and Beni = for Peru
La Paz Oruro = for Chile
Potosi Cohabanba = for Argentina
Santa Cruz (north & West of Temeletrica = forBrazil
Santa Cruz (sout & East of Temeletrica = for Paraguay

JOAO - This is Shocking! Logical conclusion - Proposal

You are too blood thirsty, Old Chap. There is no point in dismembering Bolivia and get us into more trouble. Give part of it to Paraguay, Argentina, Chile and Peru? No way. Look at this way. The next flash point is going to be Paraguay (because of Itaipu). I would rather let the "Spanish Empire" to solve the problems of Spanish America and the Portuguese America keeps clear of the "Pentelhos". We keep our existing friends and make new ones. That is one reason why I don't go overboard about UNASUL (Which Ch.c sarcastically refers to as "UNSURE").

Unfortunately, the "Current Rulers" in power do not understand that we are different from "Spanish America" and have to chalk out our own destiny. In order to do so, we have to "Valorizar" our educated Middle Class. BUT..BUT, what do you expect out of "Proletariat" in power?

btw, do you really think that we need a Nuclear Submarine? Your comments will be highly appreciated by me, if not by others.

You make me laugh... Honestly!

If only I could have "Jeeves" bring me a bottle of Port - special 1887 vintage - Queen Victoria’s Golden Jubilee's special vintage, cases of which were kept closed away for 30 years, for they were not be deemed "ready to drink" until then - 1917!!!!

Just to think about the price of any such bottle today (91 years after the "ideal date") I drop into dismay and reflection... I should truly have been there, then… Not here now …

For some reason, that's precisely what I would need right now, a full glass of ’87 port...

now sending out the US embassy and calling his own back from the US .

i think it is time to cut all money the US sends to booth countries and let them do for there own .

IF chaves and others in SA would look they could kill OPEC hold on oil price as they could start there own and set the price per barrel just under theres and people would come running at them .

but then all in the group would have to build the oil interstura to do this and maintain it .

the US will not let countrise fall to outside hands .
the navy was not set up to protect oil but to protect shiping and peoples

This is a complex question regarding a multifaceted issue.
At first sight, I would promptly forward the notion that it appears absurd spending so many resources, time and effort in a project which does not appear to represent a realistic project, not only in light of the current needs of the Brazilian military and particular in the context of other, more crucial segments of Brazilian society and economy which would warrant preferential care and attention for the resources under consideration: the appalling status of education, the worsening of security, law & order within the megalopolis axis Rio-Sao Paulo , and the shameful, crumbling national infra-structure (mostly due to the inability of successive administrations to conduct the required maintenance of previously mega-projects which includes dams, port facilities, air traffic control, power plants, and roads - including a deficient rail network)…

However, any major nation, even those with vast segments of uneducated, impoverished, and destitute population segments, must be poised to embrace the future along with the incalculable scientific challenges it automatically imply. As such, in order to face the trials which this century will certainly impose, Brazil (along with other emerging countries) must be willing to embrace the necessary technological advances deemed indispensible for further development of the very infra-structure it must address, to be in position for important task of protecting its the enormous coast line (along with crucial oil rigs), along with the fundamental need to access the required skills & expertise for continued scientific progress. Furthermore, because the successful attainment of these goals can be easily extrapolated for employment into a great variety of additional, fundamental projects required for the nation’s benefit, I feel inclined to lend my full support for the development A Nuclear Submarine (provided Brasilia secures the necessary technical support from Paris).

As much as we need to concentrate on the education and improvement of life conditions of our vast disenfranchised populations, I must urge all sectors of society to recognize the unprecedented need for the enrichment of the nation’s economic, infra-structural, and overall scientific knowledge (including further development of a safe & secure space platform in Maranhao), without which no Regional Power would be in a position to claim itself as such.

DOES BRAZIL NEED A NUCLEAR SUBMARINE?

Thank you very much for your long comment in your customary rich prose which was highly appreciated by me and I am sure also by the ones in the Whitehall. It is easy to discern that you have no experience in modern warfare (and I suspect that you mind is still in the era of bows,arrows,swords and other sharp metallic instruments that were used to wage warfare).

Having said that let me ask you the following questions and make some observations:

1) Who is our enemy that is supposed to invade our country using the sea route?
2) Will one nuclear powered submarine be enough to protect our 5000 Miles of our (beautiful,but somewhat polluted) coast?. You have to remember that half of our Naval fleet is not operational due to poor or lack of maintenance.
3) There are other ways to protect our coast from the marauding invaders by setting up Air Patrols for which we have adequate technology developed by our Engineers (graduates of IME, ITA and the Federal Universities).
4) Instead of building one Nuclear Submarine, why don't we use the technology to build Nuclear plants in the interior of the country (instead of coming out with grandiose projects like diverting the Amazon River to irrigate the Nordeste or for generating power (Rio Madeira). In such case, we will still be able to develop our nuclear technology for peaceful purposes thus generating jobs for qualified technical personnel as well as researchers.

5)Even if we insist on building a Nuclear Sub, why go for French technology. Why not shop around?

6) I really do not believe that we are going to project ourselves as a "Regional Power" by building one Nuclear Sub and let it rust at the naval dockyard. Instead, we have to strengthen our Land and Air defenses, because we have borders with a dozen countries some of which don't like us much (). The threat from the sea can be countered by repairing all our vessels and make them operational (Spend money on maintenance) and buying (from EMBRAER) low flying reconnaissance aircraft that can be stationed in bases along our 5000 Mile coast.

Let me finalize my comments by saying: If the Government wants to go ahead and build a Nuclear sub, there is no way you or I have the power to prevent it. The only thing we can do is to suggest a suitable name for it.

The B.S. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the first nuclear powered Brazillian submarine. And nothing can go wrong, and nothing can go wrong. . .

Some accidents related to the nuclear power supply have happened over the years, especially in the Soviet Navy.

K-19, 1961, reactor almost had a meltdown and explosion, which might have started a nuclear war. Several of the crew died of radiation exposure. It is dramatized by a film.
K-219, 1986, reactor almost had a meltdown and explosion, which might have contaminated the eastern seaboard of the US. Sergei Preminin died after he manually lowered the control rods, and stopped the explosion.

You are correct by suggesting that I lack experience in modern warfare, for I may always be bound to the World when Great Britain ruled the Planet. Yet, while my mind does not lie in the era of bows, arrows, swords and other sharp metallic instruments (as you put it), regarding technological advances, I have the proclivity to concentrate in the era when the magnificent battleships of the turn of the 20th century were introduced – most notably HMS Dreadnoughts (a heavily armed battleship introduced into the principal navies after the experiences of the Russo-Japanese War in 1906).

The crux of the matter, however, lies on the point we both have made, namely, the need to further develop nuclear technology. My emphasis on the French assistance was based on the great difficulty to develop it alone (or even with Argentina) along with the reluctance from Washington to provide any nuclear related knowledge transfer to non-nuclear nations.

Granted we CURRENTLY have no enemy likely to attack the coast line; yet I wonder if perhaps you have a crystal ball (or otherwise an Oracle assurance) that this will remain the case in the near future? Furthermore, I dare say that the pre-salt deposits are pretty much concentrated along a specific section ranging from Espirito Santo to Sao Paulo coast; therefore, monitoring this relatively small area, concealed under waters, might prove to be an extra benefit… But what do I know?

At any rate, you since you had asked for my opinion on this particular issue, probably presuming certain specific (unknown) criteria; to which my humble views were provided, completely unaware of any “weighted hint” therein, or of the expected type of response…

The B.S. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the first nuclear powered Brazillian submarine. And nothing can go wrong, and nothing can go wrong. .

Congratulations for coming out with a concrete suggestion. I don't think that there is a single soul in this blog who would overrule your suggested name for the new vessel

K-19, 1961, reactor almost had a meltdown and explosion, which might have started a nuclear war. Several of the crew died of radiation exposure. It is dramatized by a film.

K-19, The Widow Maker? You must have watched it several times like I did. Good lesson can be taken out of that movie.

K-219? I did not know about this alarming episode. Shall Google and find out.

I think you been seeing too many horror movies lately, Aes.

The crux of the matter, however, lies on the point we both have made, namely, the need to further develop nuclear technology. My emphasis on the French assistance was based on the great difficulty to develop it alone (or even with Argentina) along with the reluctance from Washington to provide any nuclear related knowledge transfer to non-nuclear nations.

Just to put you in par with the situation with regards "the reluctance from Washington to provide any nuclear related knowledge transfer to non-nuclear nations", I must point out that Washington is very keen to sell U.S. technology to India to build reactors for peaceful purposes. Guess what, some Brazilian companies in the Nuclear field are also interested in selling their equipment to India.

If U.S. is not willing, we can always seek for the assistance of Canada.It is all a question of diplomatic and trade negotiations and I am sure you will readily agree with me.

At any rate, you since you had asked for my opinion on this particular issue, probably presuming certain specific (unknown) criteria; to which my humble views were provided, completely unaware of any “weighted hint” therein, or of the expected type of response…

Your "humble" views were,are and will be sought after. You just feel free to express your views, without any restrictions.

I would NEVER even jokingly name ever a mere paper kite after the incompetent low-class semi illiterate moron who was elected as a “ruler” of Brazil!!!...

My vote for the submarine name, which would probably not surprise Joao – or other bloggers who are accustomed to my views – would be based on the golden Era of Brazilian History, namely = "HMS PEDRO II" who was a remarkable Sovereign, and a highly educated prince several years ahead of his time... (the Brazilian version of the illustrious Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha – consort to Queen Victoria)
Alternatively the vessel could be named "HMS GUANABARA"

(Bearing in mind I ignore the symbols preceding Brazilian Vessels - equivalent to USS in the United States, and HMS in the United Kingdom)

Because New Delhi has already successfully detonated a nuclear bomb, and because the horrific George Bush has already signed nuclear cooperation treaties with India, it is not surprising that Washington is willing provide nuclear assistance to the Indian Government.
In addition, it’s just a matter of time when Pakistan will succumb to the control of hideous Islamist, pro-Taliban parties; as such, Washington is simply poising itself towards the inevitable confrontation in the sub-continent in the not-to-distant future…

My vote for the submarine name, which would probably not surprise Joao – or other bloggers who are accustomed to my views – would be based on the golden Era of Brazilian History, namely = "HMS PEDRO II" who was a remarkable Sovereign, and a highly educated prince several years ahead of his time... (the Brazilian version of the illustrious Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha – consort to Queen Victoria)

Your vote did not come as a big surprise to me, knowing fully well of your Aristocratic background and hence your unwavering support and relentless pursuit for a constitutional monarchy for our Great Republic.You might be happy to know that I fully second your motion to name the brand new vessel as suggested by you. BUT...BUT...BUT..our dream is not going to come true.

ALAS, the winner of this Sub naming contest is AES, who knows how the minds of the proletariat work and the name he suggested is going to be accepted and appreciated. Let me remind you that there is going to be only ONLY one vessel to be built with an unique name.

AES has also given an apt symbol preceding the name of this Vessel (B.S), thus demonstrating his vast knowledge of our history.

What do you think of this?:

http://vejaonline.abril.com.br...urrentDate

Supplemantary information:
There was a much more recent, tragic accident with the Russian Navy. In mid August 2000, a Oscar-II class, the K-141 Kursk, sank about 100 miles from the Russian port of Murmansk, while participating in the fleet's summer exercises; more than 100 crew members were stranded at the bottom of the sea. Rescue efforts centered on attempts to attach equipment to provide oxygen and restore electric power to the submarine – it failed… On in September 2000 Vladimir Putin reported that the 118 sailors aboard the submarine Kursk probably died quickly after it sank, unable to send signals after it went down
It was an advanced Oscar-class nuclear-powered cruise missile attack submarine

Nowadays, HOWEVER, a similar tragedy would be less likely to occur in view of the recently launched, Scottish built, LR7 – Rescue Submarine, developed in Aberdeen; the first unit of which was sold to the Chinese People’s Navy.

Scottish built, LR7 – Rescue Submarine. . .good idea we could probably build one as long as we are building a Nautilus, it could travel along with it, it could probably come in handy. What exactly are they arming this contraption with? There is so much to do in Brazil, education, infrastructure, transparency. . . what a waste of thought. . .maybe it is purely Fruedian. . .maybe it represents a long lost digit. . .in either case the problems are now and this cannot and will not solve any of them. . .a boat and this boat in particular (a term for a submarine) is nothing more than a hole in the water that you throw money into.

Although there is always an element of propaganda in these events, I FULLY endorse Washington's handling of these Andean animals in connection with the only possible response in connection with the deteriorating Bolivian massacres, along with the inadmissible barbarian expulsions of US diplomats from La Paz & Caracas... If I had my way, these diplomatic “entities” would have been expelled as the animals, which they actually symbolize...
I have no question that significant evidence must have been found supporting Washington's allegation of Venezuelan direct support for FARC terrorists, as outlined in the provided report.

In addition, I have also watched additional video clips including a report covering the arrival of Russian Supersonic attack jets arriving in Venezuelan territory... In this connection, I must further express my overwhelming sense of complete outrage in light of Brasilia’ lame reaction to this entire affair, particularly in connection with the presence of dangerous aircraft just a few miles north of its territory; The Labor Administration should have had the DECENCY to protest or at least voice its official concerns for such maneuvers in the immediate vicinity of its borders, despite the alleged claims of “international waters”…

The unforgivable, irresponsible attitude of the lame Brazilian government is simply inadmissible in its complacency, partiality, and lack of muscle! Because Brasilia is either unwilling and/or incapable of siding with the oppressed people’s of Bolivia, and without recognizing the potential threat which the Chavez Gang poses to the region’s stability, the Brazilian Senate should, in its stead, take the necessary measures to demonstrate to the civilized world that, despite its equality corrupt proclivities, some residual strength and fragments common sense still reside in the Brazilian Central Plateau (“Planalto”)

AES, where please tell us was that long digit thought to have been misplaced?

Whether it is horse, cow, donkey, goat, chicken, human or other Ship High In Transit put at the preface, Guano bara is in trouble enough without adding nuke's. I'm in favor of just plain Pedro II (at least up until the collision with the Pedra in less than one month after commisioning).

In addition, I have also watched additional video clips including a report covering the arrival of Russian Supersonic attack jets arriving in Venezuelan territory..

Lord Augustus, I am as chagrined as you are. Instead of bettering the lives of the Venezuelan people (especially the ladies whom we greatly admire), Hugh seems to be throwing away the revenue generated by his oil by buying his shiny little toys from the Russians. At least he has identified his enemies, namely the Americans , though the chances of his winning a war against them are quite remote. Nobody in his right mind can deny that Hugh is a "Pavão" and suffers from Delusion de Grandeur (excuse my French). The question in mind WAS why Brasilia was rushing in to join hands with two losers. However, the last paragraph of your long winded comments (which every single blogger in this site has learned to appreciate, admire and put up with) helped to clarify my doubts. I do appreciate your quick reply to my queries, enlightening me further on what sort of devious minds these Rascals have.

written by notelpmiS, September 12, 2008

AES, where please tell us was that long digit thought to have been misplaced?

In a 1960's metal shop in Sao Paulo. Though it may have ended up in Teresopolis as 'Dedo de Deus'

lee off the mark - I was thinking more like digging too deep for Navel fuzz or ???

Interestingly, the Brazilian armed forces have not been engaged in combat on its own continent in one way or another since the latter part of the 19th century, when Brazil participated in the War of the Triple Alliance from 1864-1870 against Paraguay.

Alex Sanchez is supposedly an expert on Brazilian military affairs, but he's never heard of Canudos?

Interesting.

Not only Antonio Conselheiro, but the bombing of Campo de Marte in 1932.

It's nice to see Presiident Lula Suport the people who Tryid to kill hen for many times!
I hope wee dont close ur eyes to Some risck it may cause!

Brazilian Defense
written by Social, September 14, 2008

Is it you Dudu? You don't make any sense with your comments.

I hope i for a Better future to Ur People!

Dont worry, already 45 % of your Annual Defense Budget is for....
PENSIONS !!!!

And this is NOT a lie, but the absolute reality !

Intervention on canudos, rio or SP are not considered a continental intervention, since canudos, rio and são paulo, were/are places INSIDE Brazil. And its correct to say that since the 19th century brazil have not being involved in anything outside it's own borders.

About the president and the militar thats not so easy. Our situation looks like Chile's and Argentina's situation: we have a left gorvenment, but scar of the 2 decades of military coup makes ANY brazilian look at the armed forces not as a national force, but as an organisation that can steal the government and is only commited to itself. Thats why in the last years every democratic government here has tryed to keep the military forces poor.

Our military is a conservative, and internationally sold organization with the history of privating brazilian democracy twice, commiting terrible crimes against the human rights and being impunes until today. The actual government tryes to be the oposite of that, trying to be progressist and nationalist among the whole population, not only with selected people who flyes to Miami every year and says loudly that are ashamed of being brazilians.

Lula - like any democratic president - will never power up the military before totally recicling its hi-rank members who are commited not to Brazil but to the north american governments and corporations, having big businness with them.

Ah, and about the coup of 1964, you can listen to the phone call from US President Lyndon Johnson here: http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=Q65Pz-sFci8 - In this phone-call he cleary says that wants the participation of mcnamara and gordon on it, and listen about the plans of sending oil to the military tanks and airplanes when the coup is complete.

its always nice to have actual proof of details that went down back then...

i saw a casual interveiw of an ex kgb top agent on globo a few years back. he was saying there were kgb agents infiltrated in the brazilian military, the congress , the media and the students , professors and univerities...

of course , the soviet union had spies all in brazil in the thirties , and, helped push for a failed revolution...

the soviet union, by way of castro (anything castro did , at that time , was paid for by the soviet union),had bunches of trained brazilian guerilas ready to start an armed revolution...

another thing, the brazilian military made a pact in blood with the usa fighting the nazi's in italy...there was a guy in the usa army who i cant remember his name , who really cracked down on the comunists, who actualy shared a tent with many of the brazilian military...

something like under 1000 counter insurgents against the military government people were killed in the dictatorship, thousands of innocent people tortured, and, something like under 700 military people were killed by the counter insugents against the military government people (according to a vega article i read , and, a globo news report i saw,if someone has differant info please demonstrate it if there is something wrong with those figures)

yeah, its good to try to understand everything that was going on then

All,

Thank you very much for your comments (in favor or critiques) regarding my Brazil article. I would like to take this opportunity to address a couple of issues regarding my most recent report:

1. I don't know why this website keeps changing the title of the articles, making them more alarmist, I guess to catch a reader's attention.

2. I am aware of Canudos as well as of other deployments of the Brazilian military WITHIN Brazil, either for anti-drug operations or to monitor elections etc. My point is that the Brazilian armed forces have not been deployed OUTSIDE of Brazil for warfare since World War II and, before that, since the 19th century.

- A reader commented "2) On Haiti "The country does not need money, because there are already big international donors. The problem is: the money is there, but there are no projects."

- Pure lies for.....the money is there, but there are no projects." "
If you read my article agian, the line "country does not need money..." is actually a quote of a Brazilian official, it's not my argument.

- A military budget of over $5 billion is certainly impressive if compared to any other country in the region (Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay) most of which are Brazil's neighbors.

- Also I seem to be accused of spreading propaganda, I'm just wondering, propaganda in favor of who? Apparantly I am spreading propaganda by demonizing the military, so I should be in favor of President Lula correct? But I also raise the issue of Lula being too soft on the military. I do NOT argue that the Brazilian military is on some quest for regional domination, but I do believe the nuclear submarine issue is an alarming issue. One post mentioned (though I prefer to not give too much credibility to info found on wikipedia) about how much of Brazil's weaponry is actually functional (tanks, planes etc). Wouldn't it make more sense then to spend the hundreds of millions of dollars to be dumped on a nuclear submarine which will need over a take for completion (if it works) and actually spend it to upgrade conventional weaponry that would be more useful to the current geopolitical and security landscape of the region?
The argument, given in some posts, that "perhaps" Brazil may someday need a nuclear submarine as a potential aggressor may arise actually sounds more like alarmist propaganda than anything I argued, I dare say. Following that logic, every country that Brazil borders should therefore build a nuclear submarine of its own to protect themselves "in case/if ever" Brazil becomes an aggressor.

Finally, just because I did a piece on Brazil's military does NOT mean I am trying to turn a blind on to developments in the rest of the region, namely Venezuela. I hope to have an article published on the latest developments in Venezuela in the COHA website tomorrow or in the next couple of days.

Pax,
Alex Sanchez
COHA

Finally, regarding those who see Venezuela as a potential aggressor to Brazil, could someone explain please what a war between Brazil and Venezuela resemble.
For starters, the navies of both countries would have to cross Suriname Guyana and French Guyana just to reach each other. Due to the heavy vegetation of the Amazon rain forest as well as lack of roads, heavy armor is out of the question. A war between both countries would most likely resemble guerrilla warfare with use of artillery and air warfare. It would probably resemble the battles between Peru and Ecuador along their common border. What would a military victory constitute in this scenario? the capture of a major city? How far inland would either Venezuelan forces or Brazil's forces need to push in each others territories before they actually reach a major city?
Finally, who would begin such a war? Chavez? or the Brazilian military?

Also, there were recently joint military exercises between Venezuela and Brazil, which could be interpreted as security building initiatives designed to improve cooperation and for each side not to view the other as a potential military threat.

I hope to have an article published on the latest developments in Venezuela in the COHA website tomorrow or in the next couple of days.

Looking forward to reading the article as well as your participation in this forum.

Wichtigen Freunde, hoffentlich werde ich etwas hier noch einmal beizutragen

Chers amis, j’espère avoir l’opportunité de contribuer, encore une fois, quelque chose ici

Dear friends, I hope to be in a position to provide, again, a modest contribution here

Caros amigos, espero poder contribuir, mais uma vez, com algumas observações e modestas contribuições aqui…

The Venezuelan issue which has been repeatedly raised within this blog does not represent a simple affair limited and/or restricted to localized territorial conflicts, utilizing either their common (unfeasible) territorial border (in the Amazon) or the (equally impractical) Caribbean Sea, with obvious political impediments.

Presuming my memory serves me well, there have been various entries in this blog expressing unease, fears and/or suspicious vis-à-vis the clear threat which Venezuela represents not only to Brazil but to the entire region… I do not recall any entry (unless jokingly) where the bloggers have expressed – seriously - any hope, request or anticipation of a direct open warfare between Brasilia and Caracas… Neither did any such entry implied urgent, immediate, open conflict which would require direct military confrontation, particularly in light of the current Labor (left-wing) administration in Brasilia, “officially friendly to its northern future foe.

Rather, most views articulated so far simply involve a conviction that inevitable discord is bout to emerge between the two nations in the near future, in light of their obviously distinct agendas (open or hidden); as indubitably each aspire for a hegemonic position within South (perhaps Latin) America, particularly in the event of a (hopeful) switch in political orientation in Brasilia by virtue of the 2010 general election...
Presuming the Brazilian electorate proves to be sufficiently wise to elect a president from a center-right political party, direct ideological confrontation with Caracas will become virtually inevitable.

In addition, bloggers in this site have often voiced discomfort with (if not outright opposition to) the mini-alliance of Pro-Bolivarian, neo-Marxist states recently established under Venezuelan leadership, which includes Bolivia, Ecuador, Cuba and Nicaragua. This apparently harmless political development should not be underestimated by the region’s moderate administrations, for it is bound to crash with Brasilia’s and Santiago’s political agenda, hopes and long term objectives…

In my modest opinion, Hugo Chavez represents the greatest threat to peace in the region, and because such threat has been increasing exponentially (and is lately back by Russian hardware), sooner rather than later a coalition of Latin American nations (where populism and new-Marxist philosophy is either absent or less prevalent) must emerge to counter the inevitable the nefarious forces emanating in Caracas`. Such (proposed) coalition might be led by Brazil, Chile and Colombia (possibly also Mexico), in order to draft other obvious natural allies (such as Peru and Costa Rica) as well as smaller, neutral states without a clear current position (e.g. Uruguay & Paraguay). At this point, no concrete measures have been suggested, but rather an overall idea has been “floated”, for further deliberations and development, with the aim to address the Bolivarian threat which is very real and growing stronger!

ist zurück/ est retourné / retornou / is back

You are pompous as usual, Milord. In spite of my disdain for Aristocracy, please do permit me to welcome you back .Presumably, you were in Caracas socializing with some important (female) authorities and got to see good ole Hugh.

Regardless of my constant questioning of your judgments, you are very correct in your second comment after your pleasant trip to Caracas. If you observed carefully, I communicated to Alex Sanchez, my desire to read his article about Venezuela and also extended our invitation to participate in the forum. I am sure that Sanchez will accept our challenge and debate with us.

Hopefully, Mr. Alex Sanchez will honor us with additional visits... It's a pity that I was away during his brief participation...

You referred me to this site. And I visited before. And I didn't comment on it for a reason.
Alex Sanchez attempts to put "complexity" in something so simple. So I thought the article was silly. And at best served to show his journalistic skills.

Venezuela serves to "polarize" the continent. There has to be a strong LEFT presence in the region. This will keep everyone on alert as BRASIL champions the U.N's future causes and ideologies. No one will be are "real" threat to the other. If anything the "build up" on both sides will be to offset, deter and stamp out "extremist uprisings" mostly but not "wholly" of an islamic flair that our beloved Brasil is allowing to be clandestinely planted now. Be it known or unknown by the Catholic Church itself. I am SURE they are not oblivious to all this. There has to be a division "within" itself that is allowing the Mid East/Brazil commercial alliances to occur. The "Jesuits" are not gone. And they have an unlikely , unsuspected, intent.
I am obsessed with strategy. Chess. etc. All you have to do is understand the "players" . Know the "root cause" of the war. And from there study strategic offense and defense plans. In this case it is all very simple. Most are clueless because they have no idea who the real enemy is.
Please don't get me started. I have been doing well up until now.
Like I have been trying to get across.. If you take out the spiritual equation in our existence, you are clueless.
If you factor it in. And understand political science and factor in a little economics this is all a cinch. World U.N dominated socialism.

What does everyone think is happening in the U.S this week?!!!???? Free market capitalism is flying away fast. Better yet , being "taken away". Control. Control. Control.
There are MANY that understand and SUPPORT what is going on. A quiet informed, RICH elite. The masses are generally clueless. For this reason they continue to participate in the system AS IF it matters But hey,, you have to BELIEVE in something ... right???
Then you have the actors, most of these politicians, pretending they don't know what is going on publicly , but put on a good show of a fight, ie, McCain and this Henry Paulson. They know what is going on. Trust. It's there freakin system.!
Wake Up Already
......I'm not mad,really

Funded I suspect by the very 40 billion Brazil was "ALLOWED" to pay off so they can continue to seduce the masses with their newfound "pseudo-prosperity".
Not wanting their "orgasmic state" threatened o "POVO" will wholeheartedly support the "establishments" ideologies of "peace and security" with Lula and sucessor (possibly this woman,, the perfect distraction)as frontline cheerleader and mascot.
Lula can hardly keep his mouth closed about anything. He wants to appear clairvoyant.
But if you know the game , you he's a ....... What do you all call it?

A LARANJA

But if you know the game , you he's a ....... What do you all call it?

A LARANJA

I am glad that YOU said it first and I didn't.

BTW, it is the right season for growing "LARANJAS"

I am really LMAO!!. Thanks.

do and Soma don't. Kinda like paydays and paydues don't yuse think?

Augustus:
A couple of thoughts:
1. Personally I would say one of the biggest threats the region has experienced were the military governments throughout South America in the 1960s-70s (the ones in Brazil and Chile extending into the 1980s) which came along with thousands of desaparecidos. This was combined with the events in Central America, namely the proxy wars there in view of the Cold War, which brought hundreds of THOUSANDS of deaths and scorched earth policy. The massacres in Honduras for example have been labeled often, sadly enough, as the “silent Holocaust” as so few remember they actually occurred.
2. I appreciate that you label Hugo Chavez only as a threat (though I do not necessarily agree with such statement) and not generalize it to Venezuela or the Venezuelan government/military.
3. Furthermore, what makes Chavez a threat? His ideology? That he attacks Washington? A friend of mine yesterday, a Costa Rican government official, told me “like him or hate him, he only is saying out loud what everyone in this continent has been thinking for the past 200 years.”
4. Personally I see as Chavez as the tip of the iceberg, the flagship (or flagman) of a wave of left-leaning governments that has swept through South America in recent years. If you look at politics in the region, this is an interesting change. The 1990s and early 00s was marked by mostly PRO-Washington governments in the region.. free trade and so on. Case in point Alejandro Toledo in Peru. But the general disenchantment with free trade and liberal economics did not bring the general population of Latin America the change they wanted, hence we saw the end of the political dynasties.. PRI lost its grip in Mexico after 70 years.. Venezuela was for decades a 2 party system, which ended with Chavez as a 3rd force.. the same can be said in Paraguay with Lugo’s election… these are leaders, like it or not, that were actually elected by their citizens to lead. He may be a Marxist-communist, but he was democratically elected.
5. Your comment about dealing with Chavez through a coalition of Latin American states sounds very close to regime-change, I must say.
6. I hope you enjoy my newest article, as previously mentioned it is on Chavez and his military. http://www.coha.org/2008/09/ve...havez-era/
7. As an amusing side anecdote I can say that I have been correspondent by pro-Venezuela/Chavez organizations, who argue that I am ATTACKING Chavez in my pieces. I find this amusing as in this forum it seems I am attacked for apparently backing Chavez.

I read with great interest, the comments addressed to you by Mr.Sanchez. I am going to read his original article in COHA site and await its publication in this magazine (hopefully the Editors will do it quickly) before commenting. With Mr.Sanchez´s participation, the discussions should turn out to be more interesting.

Mr. Augustus
One more issues if I may:
The idea that Venezuela can pose a security threat to the region can be argued for other countries. Chile for example has purchases humvees, F-16 planes as well as leopard tanks, making it a security concern. And isnt Brazil the only country in the continent, besides the U.S. attempting to build a nuclear submarine?
I have been critiziced for my geopolitical and security view of Venezuela vis-a-vis its neighbors. However I do believe that it is simplistic and dangerous to critizice another government just because of his military purchases without understanding the security environment.
But I would like to mention a couple of facts:
1. Tensions between Colombia and Venezuela are nothing new, they are part of their history and they precede either Chavez or Uribe. In the 1980s (I apologize I forget the exact year) a Colombian warship entered Venezuelan waters, prompting renewed tensions, however no war broke out.
2. Both Chavez criticizers in this forum as well as pro-Chavez who have contected me independently point out that any country must protect itself from external security threats, pointing to the "what if" scenarios of a possible attack by an enemy state. I would like to bring about one issue: since the Chaco War in Bolivia in the 1930s if I'm not mistaken, how many inter-state wars have there been in Latin America? (I am NOT referring to guerilla movements but traditional conventional warfare).. we can mention the Peru-Ecuador war of 1941, the non declared wars between both countries in 1981 and 1995, the Soccer War, the Falklands war.. U.S. interventions in the DR (65) and Grenada (83).. what else? what country has Venezuela attacked during Chavez or before him? and how about Brazil? (besides its intervention in World War II).
There have certainly been arms races like the one we are experiencing now, particularly during the time of the military governments, where inter-state war was expected (i.e. between Chile and Peru) but no new armed conflict came about.
Therefore, regarding either Brazil, for example, which country do you, as Brazilians (as I am not) believe will attack you to justify a nuclear submarine? What would be a plausible scenario for something like that to occur? Why would Chavez want to attack Brazil? what would he do should he manage to capture Recife, Vitoria or any other major city? Annex its inhabitants? expel them? Major invasions like the what the U.s. is carrying out in Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrate, in my view, that the time for imperial-like invasions and subsequent occupations has passed.
(my apologies if my comments appear somewhat random, they are a number of thoughts that came to mind)

Quite an interesting article you published.

Therefore, regarding either Brazil, for example, which country do you, as Brazilians (as I am not) believe will attack you to justify a nuclear submarine?

Just out of curiosity. If you are a Brazilian, what are you?

A Correction: If you are NOT a Brazilian, what are you?

didnt he just threaten to send troops to bolivia ? what if the usa did that ?

for sure he has moraly praised farc and all indications are he has negotiated things with them.

farc is raping brazil, it kidnaps citezens for slavery not for hostage money, off of borders with colombia . and, farc is doing heavy business with fernando beira mar's faction in rio ( it was reported not long ago that two beira mar leutenants were noted still doing business with farc) and the farc has been proven to do business with the pcc in sao paulo

these are some of the major decimating factors to these large cities,t he unbounded hold on society there by these viscious gangs and the militia that sprung up in their wake because of their ruthlessness..and farc is part of this

and chavez supports this...

he funnels huge amounts of money to other political candidates in the region to assert influence and tries to gain victories for his power in these countries. isnt that the definition of the word imperialism ?

chavez a threat, oh yes. whether it manifests in a shooting war is another matter, but, he is a big threat to the region

about the cold war,there were 4 parties totaly involved,the two oposing sides and in each country in south america these two sides willingly invited the soviet union by way of castro and the united states to participate...all sides are dirty...

less than 1000 people died in brazil at the hands of the military, according to a globo news report and veja, and less than 600 military were killed by insurgents

Firstly, I must apologize for the long delay in replying to Mr. Sanchez detailed message, but I've not been well.
While remain (physically) unable to spend the necessary time required for the creation of any comprehensive text (at this time), I must politely disagree with Mr. Sanches mild view on Hugo Chavez, for I truly believe he represents a major threat to the entire Western Hemisphere!
Without detailed elaboration, sufice to explain that I view your position equivalent to the position of Mr. Chamberlain's speach from 1938 returning from Berlin when he expressed the resutls of his agreement with "Mr. Hitler".
While I have no intention to directly compare these two horrible creatures (for I agree that Chavez is not nearly as monstrous), I must compare the same sense of "appeasement" which current Latin American leaders with the historical mistake made by the European Leaders of late 1930's...
Consequently, I do agree with ASP views "whether it manifests in a shooting war is another matter, but, he is a big threat to the region"
Unfortunately, I dare say that I wish I could be wrong, for I do not see a happy resolution for this issue, in light of the current attitude of Latin American leaders and left-wing intellectuals

so he can just pop in on fedil and raul at any moment ?????????
and give a speach on how bad the US banking industry is hurting his country and the rest of the world .????

could it be people of the US have SLOED buying his gas and heating oil !!!!!!

or the russians and the OPECKERS are starting to force more presure on him to deal there way ,
has any one seen the new mosqu in cracas ?!?!?!?!?!
this will be very nice to watch as many a muslim are moving from surnam to chaves world .

when you sleep with pigs soon you here the banjo and then the pain in your a**ppsao

Never in the history of central bankers has the hidden coordination, influenced pressure, gargantuan money creation, doctored statistics, and interference with financial markets been so broad, so deep, and so profound. My allegation is clear, that we now live in Weimar times, as has been warned for two years worth of scribbles. Collectively, they have abused the privilege of printing money, and in doing so, have guaranteed a gold bull market.
----------------
jacksen

Internet marketing

My allegation is clear, that we now live in Weimar times, as has been warned for two years worth of scribbles. Collectively, they have abused the privilege of printing money, and in doing so, have guaranteed a gold bull market.

Brazilians are very accustomed to these "minor adjustments" in the economy. We have been living in "Weimar" times for a long time. So quit worrying.