Brazzil

first you have to spend money on education
not guns .

then the goverments have to stop stealing money .

then they have to start trusting each other


i give this proess about 100 more years

Letter I received on August 8, 2009 from Mr. Manfred and economist from Spain who spent time working for his company in some Spanish South American countries.


Dear Mr. Amaral:

Your suggestion that Brazil adopt the new Asian currency is an interesting one; you said that you had suggested the Euro years ago but changed your opinion. Later on in the article you write about future currency blocks where you say "and even some other currency that has not shown on the radar as yet"

Do you envision a South American currency? I imagine that at this decisive moment in history it might be advantageous for South America to have its own currency (similar to the Euro).

I am raising this question now because the debate is starting. Since a currency is a symbol which can unify people and nations, I see great benefits in a proper South American currency, not an Asian reserve currency for South America. This concept would require deep insight, foresight and unity. It is a vision. This is why:

South America has endured exploitation for centuries which has formed (psychologically and possibly genetically) the people beyond our imagination. Replacing the US dollar as a reserve currency in South America with an Asian one would be like replacing one "conquistador" by another. Psychologically not much will change. People continue focusing on outside forces and blaming them for whatever problem comes to mind at the moment. Such a focus is a waste of time and energy and detracts them from the real problem: People need to know themselves and about the world (education), look inwards (analysis, editorials, free publication and exchange of opinions), change themselves (which means some savings or discretionary income), feel positive and in control of their lives, acquire positive self-esteem, and feel free to create new or modify existing institutions and the ways of relating to each other (freedom to associate and flexibility of contracts, and more). (This is an initial, partial list. I admit that is has not been factored well)

The reason why I am writing to you about this is that I see here an opportunity for South America to move ahead. Yes, new institutions, credit, a unified currency, etc. are needed; but also widespread, positive self-esteem and a feeling of empowerment. I arrived two years ago and noticed that this seems to be lacking in Peru and Chile (I can't speak about the other countries). Several Peruvians and Chileans have talked to me about similar issues. Even the university Santo Tomás is aware of this because they have tens of thousands of announcements on the backs of buses preaching ¡Tú puedes! However, saying it is not enough; one needs to have the experience. A South American unified currency would give collectively the people the experience of and a feeling for pride in having accomplished some independence (¡Sí, podemos!) and will free them to focus more on matters at home instead of blaming the new emperor(s).

Does this idea make sense? Would you be willing to write about it? If your answer is positive, I would like to start a dialog.

I am looking forward to your reply.

Sincerely yours,

Manfred
Economist
Country: Spain

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Reply to Manfred


Manfred: Later on in the article you write about future currency blocks where you say "and even some other currency that has not shown on the radar as yet"

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Ricardo: No - I don’t envision a South American currency.

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Manfred said: “I imagine that at this decisive moment in history it might be advantageous for South America to have its own currency (similar to the Euro).”

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Ricardo: South America does not have the economic foundations and structure and the necessary amount of foreign exchange reserves to create a South American mega currency. I mentioned on my articles over the years that if South America decides to create a new mega currency for South America I would suggest that the name of this new currency to be “The Bankrupt.”

There is no advantage for Brazil to adopt a new currency with the other countries of South America – In that case Brazil would be better of just keeping the Real.

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Manfred: I see great benefits in a proper South American currency, not an Asian reserve currency for South America.

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Ricardo: I did not suggest that South America should adopt the “New Asian Currency.” I suggested that Brazil should adopt the “New Asian Currency.”

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Manfred: South America has endured exploitation for centuries which has formed (psychologically and possibly genetically) the people beyond our imagination. Replacing the US dollar as a reserve currency in South America with an Asian one would be like replacing one "conquistador" by another. Psychologically not much will change. People continue focusing on outside forces and blaming them for whatever problem comes to mind at the moment. Such a focus is a waste of time and energy and detracts them from the real problem: People need to know themselves and about the world (education), look inwards (analysis, editorials, free publication and exchange of opinions), change themselves (which means some savings or discretionary income), feel positive and in control of their lives, acquire positive self-esteem, and feel free to create new or modify existing institutions and the ways of relating to each other (freedom to associate and flexibility of contracts, and more). (This is an initial, partial list. I admit that is has not been factored well)

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Ricardo: My plan for Brazil to adopt the “New Asian Currency” has nothing to do with replacing one “conquistador” by another.

The plan that I suggested for Brazil is not designed for people to acquire positive self-esteem, and feel free to create new…

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Reply to Mr. Manfred


Manfred: The reason why I am writing to you about this is that I see here an opportunity for South America to move ahead. Yes, new institutions, credit, a unified currency, etc. are needed; but also widespread, positive self-esteem and a feeling of empowerment.

… A South American unified currency would give collectively the people the experience of and a feeling for pride in having accomplished some independence (¡Sí, podemos!) and will free them to focus more on matters at home instead of blaming the new emperor(s).

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Ricardo: You should read some of the articles that I added at the end of my article about the “New Asian Currency”. If you read these articles then you will understand the reasons why I am suggesting that Brazil should adopt the “New Asian Currency.”

Creating “The Bankrupt” as the new mega currency for South America is not going to accomplish any of your goals. You don’t have all the economic foundations and financial structures necessary for this currency to be considered a major foreign exchange reserve currency.

If South America decides to adopt “The Bankrupt” it will be just an empty and marginal currency without the necessary foundations necessary for that currency to be taken seriously by the international monetary system.

You don’t create a new mega currency just to make people feel a positive self-esteem and a feeling of empowerment. In Brazil we have soccer tournaments that serve for that purpose.

Brazil has been independent of Portugal since 1822, and I doubt that there is a single soul in Brazil who still is blaming what is happening in Brazil today on what happened 200 years ago when Brazil was a colony of Portugal.

Brazil is larger than Europe, and Brazil is 50 percent of South America. Besides, Brazil already has a population approaching 200 million people of whom 100 million people are destitute and live in complete poverty.

Please tell me why Brazil should unite with a group of very poor countries and triple the number of uneducated people who are living in complete poverty?

We are in the 21st Century and it does not matter where a country is located – that country will be able to choose any mega currency that is the best choice for each individual country based on trade and many other economic factors. Technology changed everything, and the rules for the new international monetary game has been drastically changed since the creation of the euro.

The reason I changed my mind about 4 or 5 years ago about Brazil adopting the “New Asian Currency” instead of the euro has to do with what is the best economic strategy for Brazil regarding the coming decades.

Please tell me what is better for Brazil regarding the coming decades. Here are your 2 choices:

1) Brazil adopts the “New Asian Currency”

The Brazilian economy prospers beyond imagination under the umbrella of a very stable “New Asian Currency” – a monetary arrangement among countries such as China, Japan, India, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Brazil.

A new currency arrangement with a very strong, stable and state-of-the-art financial market and very low interest rate – and this financial stability help all the members that adopted this currency to develop and implement all kinds of long-term projects – it is good for local governments and to private industry as well.

The currency stability and a strong financial market means that long-term capital can be raised, and also paid in local currency.


2) Brazil adopts “The Bankrupt”

“The Bankrupt” would be a monetary arrangement among countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, Chile, Colombia, Uruguay, Ecuador, and Venezuela.

No financial stability, very high interest rate, high inflation around the corner, and the concept of a long-term investment boils down to just a few months in the future.

If anything under such a monetary arrangement the interest rate for Brazil would be higher than if Brazil stayed with its current currency - the Real.

Brazil has nothing to gain by adopting “The Bankrupt.”

Sorry to disappoint you. But that is the economic reality of South America, and I know my answer is not what you were expecting.

Ricardo C. Amaral

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Cory Mengual: Simon Bolivar was not the first to dream of a united Latin America.


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Ricardo: Do you mean: A Spanish Latin America and that is what Hugo Chavez has in mind. And that is fine with me.

Simon Bolivar is the hero in the North of South America, and don’t forget that there was another important liberator of the Spanish Empire in South America: Jose of San Martin – the liberator of Argentina, Chile and Peru.

And keep in mind that these are the liberators of the countries that belonged to the Spanish Empire and had nothing to do with Brazil.


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Cory Mengual: Integration has been on the agenda of many Latin American leaders, and of today's most visible presidents, Lula da Silva of Brazil and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela have pursued their distinct versions of it for regional integration.


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Ricardo: In Europe they integrated their countries into the European Union, but most of the countries of that union such as Germany, France, England, Belgium, Netherlands were countries of the first world, and not countries such as Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Peru. These are countries of the 4th world.


You integrate your country with other countries to position your country to move forward into the future, and not to turn your country 100 years behind the times.

Why Brazil should do such a stupid thing and try to integrate with countries that would give only headaches to Brazil and nothing else?


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Cory Mengual: The idea has been part of public discourse for so long that the original reasons for integration are rarely discussed with clarity. The most basic of the arguments is that unity is the pathway to strength. Every global power has derived its influential capacity from its ability to unify the interests of large populations under a centralized and stable government.


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Ricardo: You said: “The most basic of the arguments is that unity is the pathway to strength.”

You must be kidding that from the point of view of Brazil uniting with a bunch of uneducated very poor peasants would be the pathway to strength.

I have no idea what you were smoking when you came to that conclusion – maybe some coke.


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Cory Mengual: A prime example is the ascendancy of the United States to world superpower status, through the successful integration of its individual states into a combined federal government. This belief also is confirmed by looking at the growing clout of the European Union.


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Ricardo: The United States integration happened over 150 years ago in a completely different global financial and economic environment. And even then they had to go through a major civil war. And the US became the major superpower only after WW II.

The European Union consolidated countries of the first world and not a group of countries of the 4th world.


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Cory Mengual: Another argument in support of integration is derived from the supposed failure of the Import Substitution Industrialization policies based on the findings of Raul Prebisch and subscribed to by many Latin American governments in the 1960s. Designed to foment domestic industry and reduce imports through a variety of mechanisms, these policies were more successful in larger countries where domestic demand was large enough to begin to consume the output of newly-generated production facilities. However, in small and large countries alike, these industries benefited from access to larger markets.


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Ricardo: Forget about the past since the ball game of the 21st century is like we never had anything like it before.

You should read my article were I explain the economic forces that are at work today – and how John Maynard Keynes was the most important economist of the last century, and how Joseph Schumpeter is the most relevant economist for the 21st century.

Anyway, the size of countries it is just an excuse for people who are incompetent – during that same period small countries such Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea did prosper and did very well economically. But these countries have a very well educated population.


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Cory Mengual: Many parts of Latin America suffer from a surplus of unskilled labor, which local economies cannot absorb.


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Ricardo: That is what most of these countries are all about – massive number of uneducated very poor peasants and that is the human capital that they have to offer the world.


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Cory Mengual: An Unfortunate Geography


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Ricardo: From the Brazilian point of view: Thanks God for the geography in South America.


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Just a Reminder:

In Brazil we don’t give a s**t about Simon Bolivar and any of his dreams.

He probably was smoking coke anyway.


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While I hardly ever agree with Mr. Amaral, I fully endorse the following statement:

In Brazil we don’t give a s**t about Simon Bolivar and any of his dreams.
He probably was smoking coke anyway.

I would further suggest the main author of this article, as well as ANY other member of COHA to consider “selling their biased views” to the Spanish speaking countries of South America, which may decide to pay attention to the leftist propaganda most likely financed by the vile dictators in Caracas & Havana

I don't believe Brazil thinks they are better than the rest of the countries in South America, but I do believe Brazil thinks they are in a different league when it comes to the economy..

There is @bsolutely no reason why Brazil should adopt a South American currency with 4th world countries as stated by Mr. Amaral, why? so they can feel unified? then what? I'm sure progression would be as slow as Africa..Do you think Brazil really needs that? Brazil need stability not more stress..Are kidding me Mr. Mengual?

We might as well make Lusitanian currency between all Portuguese speaking nations.. We'd be better off...

Leo Bonneville

Although your thoughts are, in my view in the right place, unfortunately Portugal already has the EURO.
Yet, I do believe that, way in the future, whenever the REAL or whichever monetary system Brasilia DF may elect to implement for our country, whenever such currency becomes a truly strong Hard currency and the Brazilian economy is significantly stronger than now, it might perhaps conduct feasibility studies regarding the possibility of bringing all former Portuguese colonies, particularly Angola & Mozambique into its economic zone.

In addition, regarding that “possible future monetary system, in light of Brazil's growing political and economic ties with South Africa & India (as part of a trilateral agreement called IBSA), it might be convenient for these three emerging countries to establish their own currency zone, which, in addition to the possible (later) extension into Angola and/or Mozambique, could also include some of India’s neighbor’s within its own sphere of influence, such as Nepal, as well as Botswana (for South Africa) and perhaps also Argentina & Uruguay (in case their economies continue associated with Brasilia... Naturally this represents ONLY a “wild thought” (so that Mr. Amaral's attack may be somewhat assuaged.).

Yet, regardless of what I posted above, I must unfortunately state that I shall always strongly object to any Brazilian consideration to surrender control of its economy to a central bank located in a totalitarian one-party state, especially one so economically and militarily powerful such as the People’s Republic of China. In fact, because I have no doubt that Beijing is unfortunately and unavoidably bound to emerge as the next major power on Earth, India and Brazil should take any possible step to counter such power with the combination of their economies.

I studied about Bolivar at high school in the same depth that I studied Queen Elizabeth's life, also known as Sissy (by the way,a much admired woman in Hungary)...

So, back to this "tremendous" article! If the Brazilian goals are, let us consider they are, aligned to a Bolivarian dream (never heard about it, and I dont believe that any Brazilian are really interested in Bolivar's dreams anyway...)

So Brazil should tame the Amazon in order to fulfil its Bolivarian destiny?!?! Fantastic! I dint know that!

Thank you for just let me know that Brazil has anything to do with Bolivar's dream or whoever else (got it? ! This way, soon, some weirdo will propose taht we start speaking Spanish and chewing coke's leaves so we may all look alike and be really dreaming collectively..what a trip!

Clean Slate, you're correct!

The scary part is that I strongly suspect that the author along with his entire left-wing organization (COHA), being a sympathizer of Latin American Radical Socialist governments, may have lend himself (as well as COHA “good offices”) to spread the views, hopes and aspirations of Hugo Chavez (and his gang), since this sneaky monster unquestionably utilizes any available tool available in order to attempt, directly or indirectly, to increase his own power, with the ultimate goal of eventually having a predominant influence over the most of Latin America!

After all, do not forget that Hugo Chavez’ political party (the SOLE PARTY currently controlling and oppressing the Venezuelan people) has a declared mission to spread what they labeled as the "BOLIVARIAN MOVEMENT" across Latin America! In fact, whenever there is a TV broadcast displaying the Venezuelan Dictator Animal growling socialist venom from the presidential office in Caracas, he appears (perhaps on purpose) with the portrait of Simon Bolivar in the background...

Although some fellow Brazilians refuse to see the ENORMOUS DANGER posed by the Venezuelan Animal, I shall continue attempting to warn Brazilians (as well as any other national of Latin America) against the potential danger posed by the implacably oppressive, totalitarian Venezuelan Government (which already controls Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua - in a firm “socialist’ partnership with their “brothers” in Cuba).

Augustus: Even the article's title is misleading and pretentious. Breaking it down in grammar terms, the main tense is:

"Brazil must first tame the Amazon". It is ridiculous or then I must assume that who wrote this has no knowledge whatsoever on grammar, semantics, or scientific writing skills. The main tense is not just a statement, it is an order, an imposition reinforced by the use of the word MUST from which Brazil cannot get away with...it is do it or do it!

Let's go the subordinate clause: "to achieve Bolivar's dream". This is subordinate causal clause (subordinate to the main tense. Note that the title starts by the cause first. It main serve a double purpose: 1) to reduce the impact of the order Brazil must follow, or must comply with and 2) state a "noble" (though foreign or alien) cause first. The pretended nobility of the cause should stand out, while reducing the impact of the following order/subordination cause.

Whoever wrote this long, painstakingly over-elaborated article, filled with questionable arguments and technicalities had already something in mind and the article was simply written to serve a cause or whatever in on their agenda. It is crystal is clear, only a novice will not notice.

I want a job like that! Sounds pretty easy and one need not be that skilful …though who wrote this must have been at pains in order to get all these technicalities. What a waste…well, if it is paid, que mal tem?

In population ONLY !
Not in GDP per capita ! Sorry junkie Ricardo !

Brazil is already a GIANT - Part 2
And provided you grow far more than the developed nations for years, not even in 2050 Brazil would be as wealthy on a GDP per capita, as today developed nations.
You better re-read the report & estimates of those who INVENTED the BRIC logo !
Sorry for you....junkie... of a Brazilian Dynasty who just had - and still - pillage the country for generations !

Last but not least.....
Even in the rosiest of rosiest estimates of your potential new oil fields......Brazil possible futures reserves....STILL DONT MATCH THE ALREADY PROVED OIL RESERVES OF....VENEZUELA !
The second disadvantage is that Venezuela population is about 20 % of
Brazil population.
Meaning that Venezuela proven oil reserves PER CAPITA.... will remain, whatever happens, many times larger than Brazil rosiest scenario !

10 people should earn more than 1 to make !
Right !
It wont be the case....in this millenium from Brazil against developed nations.
Brazil, to my knowledge is the ONLY MEGA POPULATION COUNTRY that still doesnt produce cars with their own manufacturers.
Russia, India and China also have their own, not Brazil !
Hip...hip...Hurrah....for Russia, India and China !
Uhhhhhhhh.....for Brazil !

And what is the medics/drugs companies of decent size, listed in the Brazilian Stock Exchanges....by the way ?
NONE - SIMPLY NONE !
In conclusion feel free to double-triple-quadruple your, oil, gasoline/diesel, sugarcane, iron ore, cotton, orange juice, coffee & grains productions.

That is BASIC COMMODITIES to my knowledge.
China...much more advanced than Brazil wants NOTHING ELSE FROM YOU !
You dont and could not compete against their ADDED value products, such as Steels, toys or even socks or T-shirts !
Better and cheaper to ship cotton, iron ore from Brazil to China, have
China do something and then RE-EXPORT what is not bought/consumed there, rather than have these added value products MADE IN BRAZIL !

Proof that Brazil is lagging China, not leading !

And World leaders to my knowledge such as the USA, many Europeans countries, Russia and China DO PRODUCE AND EXPORT their armaments.
and they dont IMPORT THEM ......contrary to Brazil.
Another proof of how BRAZIL is lagging in technology, not leading !

But...but....but....keep your mega pride.
My midget country with a 7,7 millions population still IMPORTS & EXPORTS AS MUCH AS...... The World Best Country that Brazil is with its 200 millions population !
And contrary to Brazil we dont export cheap and basic commodities....to my knowledge.

Ratio being 25 to 1, per capita !
Guess on whose favor ?

Keep masturbating your mind...full of polluted air.