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 Whoever imagines Brazilian President Lula following his own advice, in other words, waiting to care for his own succession only next year, is making a mistake. It is the old story of "do what I say, do not do what I do".
A full chronogram of initiatives capable of thrilling the public opinion is being prepared by the government. Add to this some routine social programs and a number of small infrastructure projects.
The first shock, by coincidence, happened last week: the non-renewal of the agreement with the IMF will serve as a flag even an emotional one when the re-election campaign starts.
The decision will be presented in a grandiose way, as if the Lula government had broken an agreement and even had expelled the technicians of the International Monetary Fund. The question will remain: "Have you seen who sent the IMF away?"
Brazil in the Opec
But there is more. In the beginning of 2006 Brazil will enter the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec). We are already producing 95% of the oil consumed here, without mentioning that we are gasoline exporters, although we still lack some diesel oil.
Next year, we will be not only producing 100% of our needs, but a little bit more, for export. We will then win the right to sit down at the table with the Arabs.
We will be even able to influence the adjustment of prices for the product. Have you already imagined the repercussion, in an electoral campaign, when you present President Lula as the man who managed to put Brazil inside the Opec?
And it does not end here the strategy engineered in the Planalto Palace. There are those who swear that there are already dealings in the making with our creditors for the renegotiation of interests of our foreign debt.
It's also expected for next year the announcement that the economic team, will be decreasing the volume of dollars sent overseas, in terms of interest and even the principal of the debt.
Another possibility would be to increase to the maximum the production of alternative and non-polluting energy, extracted from biomass. Something big, able to sensitize the world opinion as the country was able to do in the past with the Alcohol Plan.
If the information exposed above becomes reality, nobody will be able to prevent the growth of Lula's popularity come election's eve. And this will be possible thanks to the same kind of initiatives that in the past were opposed by the Workers' Party (PT).
Rebellion Threat
At least three senators of the PMDB party let it be known to the president of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, that they would leave the party in case Roseana Sarney was chosen as Minister and immediately after she left her own PFL for the PMDB.
They would have nothing to oppose, however, if the ex-governor waited a little before changing parties.
But if the change were immediate, they would react, suspecting that senator Sarney was being prepared to compose the ticket as a vice-presidential candidate.
It might have been a jealousy crisis, or a revindication so that Renan pay closer attention to his party companions. After all, he arrived to the presidency of the Senate with their support, and now they want some attention. Roseana would have entered as Pilate in the Creed.
Senator Ney Suassuna, new leader of the party, works to polish edges and to keep the party's unity, uncomfortable with the evidence that only Renan and Sarney go up Monte Olympus to talk to Zeus. None of the two is willing to do Ganimedes' role (the cup bearer of the gods), but they are the only communication channel with the government.
And since we are talking about the PMDB, there are people imagining that Amir Lando is going to throw a tantrum. He lost the Social Welfare Ministry, due less to Lula's wish than to his own companions.
Mud will hit the fan if the former-minister decides to reveal what happened in the backstage of the fight with Dataprev, the company that renders services to the Social Welfare Ministry.
Forget It
The government is going to hurt itself in case it insists on approval of the bill that gives autonomy to the Central Bank. The case already hurt Minister Antônio Palocci when he insisted that the proposal should be voted immediately.
Several factors work for the plan's rejection. For starters, the dissatisfaction of the government block due to promises not kept concerning liberation of resources for deputies and senators own pet private project. As no money or very little of it was given the climate continues unfriendly in Congress.
Another reason is ideological. As incredible as it might look, it is the government's party block itself that is opposed to the idea of giving independence to the Central Bank, afraid that the maneuver will allow Henrique Meirelles or his successors to act independently without regards for the government and their goals.
If the President can nominate the president of the Central Bank, why should we believe that he can lose the right of firing him in case of a confrontation?
The government leaders would do better if they kept the project in the backburner not allowing that it is voted for now. But everything depends on opposition leader Severino...
Carlos Chagas writes for the Rio's daily Tribuna da Imprensa and is a representative of the Brazilian Press Association, in Brasília. He welcomes your comments at carloschagas@hotmail.com.
Translated from the Portuguese by Arlindo Silva.
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