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Why Is Brazil Afraid Vice Alencar Will Become President? PDF Print E-mail
2005 - July 2005
Written by Carlos Chagas   
Friday, 08 July 2005 19:18

Brazililan vice-president José Alencar Gomes da SilvaA common denominator unites all the political, business and union forces in Brazil: the importance that President Lula be not  touched by the charges and investigations on corruption in the government, inside the PT (the government party) and among the allies.

Several reasons lead to this kind of armor with which they try to surround the President: first, because we are dealing with a political leader above any suspicion, a union man with untainted reputation.

There is nothing in his past, much less in his administration in the Palácio do Planalto, capable of leading him to the intrigues of corruption, although much knavery has occurred under his shadow.

There are no facts or evidence that would raise suspicions about the government chief. If something comes out, it will be the biggest of surprises.

Reason Has Name and Address

This also shows the bias of the oppositions. It has become common place to say that the PSDB, the PFL and the PDT parties, all want to bleed Lula, but never to kill him, due to next year's presidential elections.

From a more than victorious candidate to a second mandate, the President has been transformed into someone who will need to put a lot of effort in order to get reelected. If things keep going the way they are, that will be worse.

This way, tucanos (those connected to former President Cardoso PSDB party), liberals and Brizola followers think they will be able to launch their own candidates with a good chance of victory.

There is, however, a third reason for all to exaggerate and say that they were born Lula fans.  This reason has name and address. It lives in the Jaburu's Palace, next to Lula's Alvorada Palace, and its name is  José Alencar.

The elites run away from the Vice-President as the devil from the cross, because if, by any chance, he took over for good, he would radically change the economic policy.

He would lower interest rates with a stroke of the pen. He would put forward mechanisms for immediate resumption of Brazil's development.

He would limit profits of banks and the financial system. And, in addition,  he would fire Finance Minister Antônio Palocci and his gang in his first day in office.

The same way, the PT and the parties of the official parliamentary base do not admit changes in the neoliberal politics adopted by the economic team. No need to mention the oppositions, who are the ones that invented the model in course.

In short, if there weren't enough reasons already, this last one serves to guarantee that only by miracle Lula will get what President Fernando Collor got (Collor was impeached by Congress).

Better Late

There are attempts to bring the lefts together again. They have realized, even the PT's  most progressive sectors in the PT, that it is no use denying the obvious. You can't hide anymore the widespread embezzlement.

So, the first effort to try a successful comeback  will be to recognize the scandal and to start investigating it. As well as, it is clear, to punish those responsible for what happened. At the same time, the strategy will consist in organizing an action plan and offering it to the President.

Someone who thinks like that is House Representative Jandira Feghali, from the PC do B (Brazil's Communist Party). She suggests actions in the economic sector, things like an immediate cut in interest rates and the creation of limits to speculative capital. 

She also wants that resources for the social sector be released. She talks about a stage of reaction to neoliberalism, as the abandonment of union and labor reforms.

She also stresses how important it is the reevaluation of some privatizations, especially in those cases dealing with national sovereignty.

For the congresswoman, a program with these characteristics geared to the left would give consistency to the Lula government, reestablishing its credibility.

The President lost some precious time, but there is still time for a turnabout.

Omission

So angry were those who opposed the Post Office parliamentary inquiry due to the delay in the testimonies by José Dirceu, José Genoíno and Luiz Gushiken as were the governmentalists due to senator Delcídio Amaral's decision to continue working during the recess. Now, they agreed to rebel because the Supreme Court decided to grant adman Marcos Valério habeas corpus. 

No one knows why Minister Ellen Gracie accepted the argument that transformed the witness from deponent into investigated. The figure is new: what is an investigated? Someone who answers  questions, like witness, both compelled to tell the truth.

Were he accused and he could plead the constitutional principle of not having to answer questions that might jeopardize him.

But who indicts is the Justice, not the CPI (parliamentary inquiry), which can only send a report to the Public Ministry, for the legal measures, when the person is not a congressman.

If the deposition wasn't worth for what it revealed it was worth for what it omitted.

Carlos Chagas writes for the Rio's daily Tribuna da Imprensa and is a representative of the Brazilian Press Association, in Brasília. He welcomes your comments at carloschagas@hotmail.com.

Translated from the Portuguese by Arlindo Silva.



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Comments (5)Add Comment
I dont know if it would work...
written by Guest, July 09, 2005
I regards to Alencar wanting to lower interest rates, I think he would try to do what the articles says but there is an economic fallout. First, the Real would quickly fall, and it would fall further if the interest rates fall. I have written in a article online that I believe if the interest rates did fall the Brazilian federal government would likely run out of the loans and credit it receives from domestic banks and institutions because over 40 percent of the federal government debt is owed in the next 12th months. I think with lower rates the economy would finally grow faster, but the trade-off is what would become of the need to service Brazil's large foreign debt.
Also, I dont think Lula is planning a turn-about any time soon. Lula will not be nominating more progressive members to his cabinet especially to very important positions. He probably assumes that he has a lot to deal with in terms of the political problems in Brasilia and would not rather face a two front problem with a falling economy....Now if he wins re-election who knows what he has learned from his first administration!
like I say once...
written by Guest, July 09, 2005
I don't know if Lula is that clean, nobody is, but sure is not that dirty! there was worse presidents in Brazil, at least Lula is for sure the most clean ( as a person). But like any president of Brazil, the parties they belong to, and the allies, don't protect him against internal( what the heck is PT people thinking?) or external attacks! and who suffers? Brazil! I don't think Alencar would be that bad, but hey, sure would make a easy prey. Normal prey, for all the parties in Brazil game for control. And reporters like you Mr. Chagas, that think is just normal, people make this scandal, his own party! that means Lula is dirty! but nobody wants to hurt Lula, just make him bleed a little! so Lula will keep being president, because they, ( the others allies parties), just want a chance to win the next election!? what the f**k are you saying?! is that a reporter's knowledge from the big Brazil political machine? You know, sometimes I think you are right, is just that simple....and I'm sure when someone says that brazil is a big joke, don't be offended!

I think is not the interest rates that really hurts Brazil but if keeps too much like that will) , but this long f**king Latin American jokes of politicians games! Brazil is the one that bleeds, and it's people are being killed for such policies and politicians!!
Another utopian dream
written by Guest, July 09, 2005
I'm sorry I'm going to post this in Portuguese, but this was taken lterally from one of the most important Brazilian weekly magazines, Veja. I think it says a lot to all those people looking for magic solutions, and I believe that Brazilians (and other Portuguese-speaking people) who surelly read this see the article above taking into account the one below too:

(http://veja.abril.com.br/130705/p_094.html)

Economia e Negócios

A ilusão dos zeros

A idéia de zerar o déficit por lei é como o Fome Zero: uma expressão sonora e vazia


O ministro Palocci e Delfim, com empresários: para a equipe econômica, a proposta pode atrapalhar o combate à inflação

Desconfie de qualquer política pública ligada à palavra zero. O Fome Zero, devaneio social de Lula, teve fim melancólico, uma antevisão do que ocorreria com o governo do PT como um todo. Também deram errado as cômicas tentativas de importar o Tolerância Zero, programa de combate à violência que fez despencar as taxas de criminalidade em Nova York. Pelo mesmo caminho seguirá a tolice de zerar a produção de armas de fogo no Brasil. "Tudo que tem zero sugere uma solução milagrosa. Isso é sempre perigoso. Os governos já tentaram salvar o Brasil umas 500 vezes com exorcismos mágicos. Não dá certo", diz o antropólogo Roberto DaMatta. Nas últimas semanas, tem circulado com alarde uma nova proposta com o sugestivo número no nome. É o "déficit nominal zero". Uma vez atingida essa meta, o Brasil entraria de vez no paraíso econômico, com juros baixos, forte crescimento, qualidade de vida, e tudo isso sem inflação. Pena que se trata de mais uma mágica.

À primeira vista, a sugestão parece ter apenas méritos. Ela visa a obrigar o governo a poupar o suficiente para pagar toda a conta de juros que deve a cada ano. Em 2005, por exemplo, União, estados e municípios precisam pagar 155 bilhões de reais de juros, mas vão economizar apenas 83 bilhões. O rombo será de 72 bilhões de reais. Se a meta já existisse, o governo teria de fazer o que estivesse a seu alcance para fechar esse buraco. Em vez de se comprometer a economizar 4,25% do PIB, o que faz atualmente, o governo cortaria gordura da máquina administrativa e faria a economia necessária – seja ela do tamanho que for – para zerar o déficit em três ou quatro anos. Por trás da idéia, está a crença de que, tão logo se obrigue o governo por lei a perseguir a meta de déficit nominal zero, o mercado financeiro teria certeza de que o corte de despesas é real, e tudo conspiraria para que os juros baixassem.

A proposta, de autoria do dep**ado federal Delfim Netto, do PP, recebeu muita atenção por ter sido elogiada pelo presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. O presidente teria dito que encamparia o projeto desde que o ex-ministro obtivesse apoio de empresários, políticos e formadores de opinião. Mesmo com o aceno presidencial, no entanto, a idéia não decolou. Felizmente. Embora acerte ao focar no principal problema da economia brasileira – o gasto público em excesso –, a criação de uma meta formal de déficit zero não é, na opinião dos especialistas, mais eficaz que a atual estratégia do governo de elevar o superávit primário. Bastaria manter o atual esforço fiscal, o que tem feito com relativo sucesso, para que o governo chegue inevitavelmente ao déficit zero. Ou seja, a manutenção da atual política econômica reduzirá mais rapidamente a proporção da dívida sobre o PIB – indicador de vulnerabilidade de uma nação (ver o quadro) – do que a adoção de um novo caminho.

Mas esse não é o principal problema da proposta de Delfim. Por criar uma meta formal, ela embute ameaças ocultas. A mais óbvia delas decorre do fato de que o déficit zero exige duas premissas principais: o corte de gastos do governo e a diminuição dos juros por meio de uma penada do Banco Central. Ora, como todo mortal adivinha, tão certo como dois e dois são quatro, ocorreria a derrubada artificial dos juros por decreto, mas os gastos públicos continuariam a crescer, como vêm crescendo sem interrupção há meio século. "Ao invés de diminuir os gastos, o que é politicamente complexo, o governo será tentado a tomar medidas populistas como baixar os juros e deixar a inflação disparar", explica o economista Roberto Padovani. O resultado disso seria um desastre, uma abdicação das duras conquistas recentes da sociedade brasileira. Ao impedir o Banco Central de usar os juros livremente para combater a inflação, o novo sistema, se adotado, deixaria o país à mercê de seu antigo vício inflacionário. Como diz o economista Gustavo Franco, ex-presidente do Banco Central, um pouco de inflação no Brasil tem o mesmo efeito que um gole de uísque para um alcoólatra. Começa com pouco. Não pára mais.

"Prefiro superávit maior à meta de déficit zero", diz o ministro da Fazenda, Antonio Palocci, que discutiu a adoção da medida com empresários na semana passada. Palocci reconheceu que parte da proposta não serve ao país, mas acha que não se pode desprezar o que ela tem de melhor: o corte de gorduras na administração pública. Justamente o que o governo anda prometendo sob o nome de "choque de gestão". A idéia é reduzir a porcentagem das chamadas verbas vinculadas, aquelas que são obrigatoriamente repassadas para áreas sociais em uma proporção que cresce sempre mais do que a arrecadação – independentemente de produzir resultados positivos. Ou seja, mesmo que não melhore o atendimento médico-hospitalar ou aumente o número de vagas nas escolas públicas, o Ministério da Saúde e o da Educação têm direito assegurado a um naco crescente no Orçamento da União. "É um bom momento para o Congresso mostrar à sociedade que não é apenas palco de mensalão, mas também de medidas que contribuem para o crescimento do país", disse Delfim Netto.

O mérito da proposta do déficit zero fica mesmo por conta de ter trazido à tona a necessidade de, pela primeira vez na história brasileira, fazer com que o governo caiba dentro do PIB, na expressão brilhante criada por Delfim Netto. Por não conseguirem fechar suas contas no fim do ano, União, estados e municípios devem, juntos, quase 1 trilhão de reais. É tanto dinheiro que a dívida já representa metade do produto interno bruto. Ninguém se importa com isso. Quem paga somos nós. Quem gasta são eles. É hora de reverter essa perversidade, sem mágicas. Se não fosse uma condenação ao fracasso, o ideal seria exigir enganação zero por parte dos políticos e do governo.
Skimming off the top
written by Guest, July 11, 2005
Like the advertising agencies, the huge bank loans are the best way to make money(not only the bankers) afterwards, they sit and share the loot! wake up brazilians!
...
written by Guest, July 13, 2005
"one of the most important Brazilian weekly magazines, Veja"

One does not need to be enlightened to see how low Veja goes to attack Lula. Just a look at the front pages and the word cheap shot comes to my mind.

Athough I wouldn't bother to defend Lula, Veja is as low as one gets in therms of credibility.

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