The ongoing scandal involving allegations that the Workers Party (PT) paid bribes to members of other parties in return for their votes in Congress is producing new revelations almost every day. There have been so many developments that it is virtually impossible to see the overall picture.

One thing is clear: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva may soon be fighting for his political life. His unimpressive "address to the nation" today shows that he still does not seem to appreciate the seriousness of his position. 

Things have reached such a stage that we can no longer assume that Lula will last out his mandate. He may be impeached by Congress or give up and resign. Such an idea would have been almost unthinkable only a few weeks ago when he appeared to be riding out the storm.

It still is rather distant - and for the sake of stability let us hope it does not occur - but the President's position has gradually weakened as the scandal has unfolded and come closer to him. 

Instead of assuming leadership and controlling events as best he could, he has turned his back on Brasília. He has returned to his natural constituency - organized labor and the poorer section of society - to show that he still enjoys widespread popular support.

He has made more than a dozen ad hoc speeches throughout the country over a period of two weeks. Some have been emotional and mawkish and given the impression of someone under great stress who needs emotional support rather than a leader trying to confront a grave problem. 

Offhand Apology

When he finally chose to address the nation today he did so in a rather offhand way at a meeting of his ministerial team. A proper address directly to the people would have been more appropriate. Instead he spoke for a mere five minutes or so.

He said he was angry at the revelations and felt betrayed by unacceptable practices within the PT of which he had had no knowledge. He called for those involved to be punished and said the government and the PT should apologize to the Brazilian people.

He made no specific reference to any allegation and mentioned no names. Maybe he was being deliberately low key in an attempt to dampen down the fires. On the other hand, he maybe  was deliberately vague in order to avoid saying anything which could have been questioned or examined too closely. He certainly did not convince the doubters. 

He will certainly not convince a large part of the media which is quite openly gunning for him. Lula is walking a tightrope and many press ghouls are hoping he falls - without caring about the consequences for the country.

The reporting in sections of the press - such as the "Estado" and "Folha" newspapers of São Paulo and Veja magazine - has been biased to say the least.

Since the Congressional committees (CPIs) are not expected to make their first reports until December, this means we face several more months of spin by the media on the upcoming "discoveries," allegations, denials and counter-denials.

Lula may feel he can ignore this since most Brazilians are too poor to buy papers like the "Estado" and "Folha" (2.50 reais - US$ 1.2) or Veja (7.50 reais - US$ 3.30) but many of the middle-class voters who supported him do.

They get their versions of what is happening through the eyes of the reporters, columnists and editors of these publications. By disdaining or snubbing the press - even the hostile section - Lula is making a mistake and underestimating its aims.

Every paper or magazine is hoping to be the one which publishes the damning evidence showing his direct knowledge of or involvement in the scandal.

We saw this just today when the weekly Época magazine appeared one day earlier with a claim by a former leader of the Liberal Party (PL), Valdemar Costa Neto, that Lula had known that the party wanted payment in return for its support in the presidential election. 

When the Cat's Away...

He also needs to pay more attention to what is happening in Congress. While the cat's away the mouse will play and the CPIs are bringing increasingly bad news for the President and the PT.

The allegation by publicist Duda Mendonça, made Thursday, August 11, that the PT had told him to set up a secret bank account in the Bahamas to receive payments for service rendered in various election and publicity campaigns, was a particular blow.

Mendonça has been given much credit for Lula's landslide victory over José Serra in the second round of the election in 2002. Under Mendonça's guidance, Lula shed his leftist image for a "peace and love" approach known as "Lula Light," which helped persuade many middle-class voters to drop their objections to him. 

Mendonça's testimony was also another setback for the PT. He told a CPI that he had been advised to set up the offshore account by Marcos Valério Fernandes de Souza, the figure at the center of the scandal.

Valério is under investigation on suspicion of being the paymaster behind the scheme to reward those who voted for the government.

Mendonça claimed that R$ 11.5 million (around US$ 5 million) had been paid into this account for his services during Lula's election campaign in 2002. Valério has denied the claim but since he has admitted to lying in the past, his word has little credibility. 

The PT has always claimed the moral high ground, but recent events have shown that when it comes to acting unethically it can teach other parties a lesson. Although some other parties have been involved in this scandal, it is the PT which has been shown to be the greediest for money and power.

The party faces the danger of splitting and morale is plummeting as members and supporters feel they have been betrayed by the party leadership and its shady backroom deals. 

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish writer and consultant with long experience of Brazil. He is based in São Paulo and runs his own company Celtic Comunicações. This article originally appeared on his site www.brazilpoliticalcomment.com.br. He can be contacted at jf@celt.com.br.

© John Fitzpatrick 2005

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