What everybody in Brazil is talking about, this week, is not  the explanation given by House Speaker Severino Cavalcanti, who hasn't  explained a thing. Much less the possibility that congressman Roberto Jefferson be sacked by Thursday. What's really important is the interview of Vice-President José Alencar with the daily Folha de S. Paulo, on Sunday, as well as its consequences.

While once again stressing his loyalty to President Lula and declaring to be against any impeachment request against the government chief, Alencar made it clear: he is ready to take over the presidency, if the president's impeachment comes to pass.

He will not renounce his duty and right; and if he has to succeed Lula, he will immediately change the monetary policy, lowering the interest rates, because he is against the practice of throwing money away.

The Vice-President added that he has been requesting all the time for the interest rates to be lowered,  but that nobody listens to him. Not even Lula who he disagrees with on this matter.

Saving the Neck

What will happen to Brazil in case the winds blow in the direction of Severino Cavalcanti's sacking and, as a consequence, the president's sacking? We will have a 180-degree turnabout in the economic model, with immediate dismissal of Finance Minister Antônio Palocci and his team.

There is no doubt that the national productive establishment as well as the middle class will offer their immediate support, in this case. On the other side of the coin, however, the financial sector, especially the Brazilian banks, besides, it's obvious, the international speculators will sharpen fangs and claws.

Here's a perfect example of a shock, with unexpected results. It's due to scenarios like these that many people pray for President Lula to stay put where he is. Or, as an alternative that he take his Vice-President with him if he is forced to relinquish power.

The impeachment is not out of the question, but it seems out of the vision field right now. It is not enough the argument that Lula could not be unaware of the existing huge corruption scheme armed under his shadow and involving his government, the PT and allied parties. It would be necessary to prove that the President, besides knowing, had authorized the wrongdoings.

Few people would be able to testify to this end, all of them armored to preserve Lula: his former chief of staff José Dirceu, ex-Communication Minister Luiz Gushiken, the PT treasurer Delúbio Soares and a few more. We might have a problem if someone loses his mandate and another one ends up in jail. Then, when it's time to save your own neck, loyalties vanish...

It Is No Use

Yesterday, Lula flew to Guatemala. There, he is going to meet the presidents of Central America countries to discuss programs against hunger. Tomorrow, he will be in New York, for the opening of the United Nations General Assembly, although he is not going to deliver the opening speech, which was left for Foreign Minister Celso Amorim.

But he will have meetings with other presidents, to talk about the theme "hunger in the world" and he will make presentations to businessmen interested in investing in Brazil. Result: he will be back in Brazil only by Saturday, after a crucial week for the future of the country's institutions.

In Brasília, it will be decided the future of the Speaker of the House, Severino Cavalcanti, as well as the future of several House representatives, starting with Roberto Jefferson, who might lose his Congress seat. Besides, procedures for the dismissal of 17 other legislators should also start.

There should also be talks leading to the selection of a new president for the PT party.  In case the new choice comes from the majority field, it will have meant that José Dirceu won. Any other choice will promote immediate cleaning up, including the expulsion of the gang that designed and executed the scheme to illegally enrich the party.

Still despite all of this, His Excellency will be flying throughout the Americas...

Optimism

There are those in government who see it all with Pangloss' glasses and who are still betting on Lula's re-election. After all, they reason, who threw the IMF out, rejecting another agreement with that organism?

The same way, who would be responsible for putting Brazil in the OPEC, turning the nation self sufficient in oil with a little spare change to export?  And in whose government, after so many decades, was Paulo Maluf finally thrown in jail?

The optimists add more arguments: the lack of an opponent capable of promising real changes to the national reality, since all indications point that the preferred presidential candidate would be a toucan (from former President Cardoso's party, the PSDB).

The considerable increase in the family allowance program, which was able to benefit 11 million citizens who were below the poverty line. The unequivocal action of the Federal Police's in fighting organized crime. The absolute control of inflation. We might agree this is something to talk about.

Carlos Chagas writes for the Rio’s daily Tribuna da Imprensa and is a representative of the Brazilian Press Association, in Brasília. He welcomes your comments at carloschagas@hotmail.com.

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