There is not a single political leader who has not an eye turned to the cascading scandals happening in Brasília, the capital of Brazil, now, at the same time that he keeps the other one attentive to next year's presidential election. In the political parties and in Congress, all of them haggle and say that is impossible to present candidates names before the corruption dust settles down, but...

But it's a lie. That's just an expedient to allow them to maintain secret one of the most ferocious dark-room fights ever registered in the Brazilian Republic's history. All the records seem to have been beaten, as well, because we have never seen this kind of plunder promoted by parties from the government base, under the auspices of the government itself.

The first one to the well...

President Lula swings between running for re-election, the most probable, and considering his presidential career finished.  Actually, he is more inclined to run, at least as a way to beat the crisis and save his image. He is much less worried now about the chances of reforming the country,  since he  has for a long time forsaken this project. His chances of winning are low at the moment and, if the elections were held today, he would lose. In October 2006, he might win though, depending on who his main opponent might be.

In the toucans nest (the PSDB) - the nucleus with the largest amount of candidates, but not the most combative - the strategy is to wear down the President as much as they can, without putting his mandate at risk. Thew want to lead him to a failed candidacy, in 2006. All of the PSDB's honchos agree in this particular, but, that's the only thing they can agree upon.

What we see is that when José Serra, who lost to Lula in the past elections, appears leading the polls, his own party comes along trying to wear him down. Heading this assault is former-president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who, contrary to what he guarantees, is a candidate and very much so.

The sociologist counts on the prolongation of the crisis to weaken Lula and to create conditions for an institutional chaos, which would make him sole candidate in his own party and in other sectors. A kind of country's savior...

But there are other suitors in the PSDB. Men like the São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin, a little hopeless, but still carrying the strength of his powerful post. And governor Aécio Neves, from Minas Gerais, working in silence and aligning himself behind a kind of Minas Gerais coalition: he would be running for president, while the current vice-president José Alencar would go for governor and the former-president Itamar Franco for senator. A very serious threesome, with candidates from different parties, unless the three of them decide to join the PMDB.

...is the one who drinks clean water.

In the PFL, the order is to keep insisting on Rio's mayor Cesar Maia, even for lack of any other option. They are intent on calling attention to the mayor's achievements and his image of experienced and competent manager. After all, he resisted well to the federal government's squeeze, which had the intention of demoralizing him in the week his name was mentioned as possible candidate, by way of a federal intervention in Rio's municipal hospitals.

The PFL and the PSDB, might run separate campaigns in the first turn, but they will be united in the second round, with the loser supporting the winner in a bout against Lula.

The PMDB continues open to a thousand and one possibilities. The first one was to support the current president re-election, something now discarded. The idea of launching their own candidate is always appealing, but who? The party leadership has already made known to former governor of Rio, Anthony Garotinho, what they think about his candidacy: "Don't even dream about it."  They won't allow the husband of Rio's governor, Mrs. Rosinha, to use the party unless his intentions are to run to Congress as a Senate for the state of Rio de Janeiro.

The chosen could be among governors who belong to the PMDB, but no one would be strong enough for now to face the PT, PSDB or PFL candidates. They could be Germano Rigotto, from Rio Grande do Sul, and Roberto Requião, from Paraná, the two brightest names at the moment. They don't have the backing of the party's Paulista (from São Paulo) base though
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There are those who believe in a maneuver as risky as fascinating: the entrance of Minas governor Aécio Neves into the PMDB, to be launched candidate. That's possible, but it doesn't seem to be an easy task.

There are other suitors. Roberto Freire was already launched by the PPS. In the PDT, there are three names for the isolated adventure: Cristovam Buarque, who left the ruling PT and recently joined the party; Maurício Strap, former-president of the Supreme Court of Justice and Roberto Mangabeira Unger, political scientist. The P-Sol will test senator Heloísa Helena's popularity,  and the Prona might insist on presenting Dr. Enéas once again.

Outside this list we will hardly have other names. That would explain why everybody has been reciting the Arab proverb that says "the first one to the well is the one who drinks clean water".

Carlos Chagas writes for the Rio’s daily Tribuna da Imprensa and is a representative of the Brazilian Press Association, in Brasília. He welcomes your comments at carloschagas@hotmail.com.

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