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 Despite the political crisis, Brazil is doing OK. It could be better, but it could be much worse. At least it is what the numbers show. According to Miriam Leitão from Rio's daily O Globo, inflation is down and it should continue going in that direction. There is optimism for inflation numbers next year and, although not outstanding, there is unquestionable economic growth.
June showed a 0.02% deflation rate and in July the number raised to 0.25%. The numbers are expected to keep going down even with the raise in gas prices. According to economists, numbers as good happened only back in 2003. The way things look now, the tendency is to get better in 2006, which will make interests lower.
Brazilian Central Bank is starting its plan of reduction of interest, following its pattern of cautious behavior, criticized by some and applauded by many. If the economic team keeps up the good work, Brazil may expect a zero deficit by 2008.
Industrial production was bigger than expected and this and the cheaper dollar motivated companies to buy imported equipment, bringing investment numbers up. Export numbers are fine and there is money not only in Brazil but internationally, which also means there is no risk for a sudden raise of the dollar exchange rate.
The political crisis affects the country in a negative way; when the government has to concentrate so much effort in the imbroglio it now faces, everything else seems to go very slowly. Going back to a normal pace is something unpredictable, at least for a while, until the political horizon clears up.
This brings to the conclusion that if Brazil is doing fine, and the numbers say so, it could be doing much better if it were not for the crisis. Despite all the problems, the growth for this year is supposed to go beyond what was expected, but it could be much higher.
Brazil grew 8.5%, this is what official numbers indicate, which is apparently a very good number. But when one considers other countries, the picture changes. Turkey grew 23%, South Africa, 22%, Poland 20%, Mexico 16%, and Brazil grew only 8.5%.
In comparison, the number reaches its true small dimension. This is only a reminder of how much better Brazil could be doing if it did not have a government that had to use so much of its time and energy in managing the sea of mud in which it is involved.
No one can deny that there are good things happening. Brazil not only did not renew the agreement with the IMF, but it has prepaid what it owed. Companies reduced international debts in at least US$ 50 billion with the lower cost of the dollar, and the general picture is one of stability.
But if the political crisis adds nothing to Brazil, except a lot of shame and controversial statements from some of the government's most prominent names, will the positive numbers be able to help out the crisis? With enough money to spend, will the government choose to make new investments to please different people on different levels?
It may, for instance, choose to increase social investments to please the left side of Lula's Worker's Party, which is in much need of reassurance of leadership; it may choose to invest in different ways to conquer new friends and maybe even pacify old ones. In short, Brazil's economic stability could be used to call for truce, to help to find a solution that would put an end to the present situation.
But considering that the international scene might not stay so positive and the now favorable conditions will then change if the price of oil keeps going up, Brazil could have taken better advantage of the good times and done a lot better. Like saving for a rainy day when all the forecasts are already announcing clouds in the air.
It did not. And it is not likely that it should start now, with a government too busy with its image and the upcoming elections. Too bad. It makes one wonder why Brazil keeps missing opportunities again and again.
No one with reasonable thinking would compare President Lula to former President Collor, as some try to do, taking advantage of the government's present political vulnerability. If Lula's government was not doing so well in so many aspects, there would not be so many guns pointed in its direction, seeking to dismantle it, maybe to prevent a possible reelection.
It is very possible that strange forces and maybe not so strange ones could have been brought into action to prevent any more growth of the "unwanted." Everybody knows the name of the game that the Workers' Party has been playing; everybody has played it at one time or another, many do it all the time, and they all know the rules and how to find the piles of dirt to hit the fan. It has happened before.
There is always dust that has been swept under the rug, there is always something moldy and rotten in the refrigerator. All it really takes is to expose one rotten thing and before the blink of an eye, there will be dozens of rotten pieces bursting out all over.
Was it all Roberto Jefferson? Maybe so, with a little help from an old friend down there, another friend up here, and on and on, there is never a shortage of opposing interests and enemies in politics and, unfortunately, the games played are not always fair, to say the least.
In 1964, Brazilian President João Goulart was thrown out of power by a military coup that had external influences in its leadership. John Kennedy, one of the most popular American presidents, some time later lost his life, then his brother Bob, to mysterious murderers that some even dare to say it is all related to the Mafia. Bill Clinton paid too high a price because of the target of his cigar.
The list is long and it just makes one wonder...
Clara Angelica Porto is a Brazilian bilingual journalist living in New York. She went to school in Brazil and at the University of Wisconsin in Madison. Clara is presently working as the English writer for The Brasilians, a monthly newspaper in Manhattan. Comments welcome at clara.angelica@gmail.com.
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