Does it matter that the third most important post under the Brazilian Constitution, the chairman of the House of Representatives, is now being held by a Communist, whose party logo still flaunts the hammer and sickle? Not a whit since the new chairman, Aldo Rebelo, has as much ideological conviction as most of his peers, which is nil.

In fact, his aims would put him as much at home with nationalistic reactionaries as red revolutionaries. Although he has held two ministerial posts, he is only known outside the corridors of Congress for trying to introduce a law to ban English words and, even more absurdly, to replace Halloween (a nasty foreign invention) with a day devoted to Saci, a character from Brazilian folklore featured in the stories of the children's writer Monteiro Lobato.

This is the kind of person who will be steering legislation through Congress in the final year of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's mandate. He is certainly an improvement on his predecessor, Severino Cavalcanti, but then anyone would have been better than the disgraced Cavalcanti who was an embarrassment to the whole country. 

Rebelo scraped through with a majority of only 15 votes on the second vote on September 28, an unimpressive result considering that he was the government candidate. In the first round, he actually tied with his main rival, Thomaz Nonô of the PFL party.

This victory came at a high cost. According to the local press, the government opened the sweet jar and promised an estimated 1.5 billion reais (about US$ 650 million) to its "allies" in amendments to next year's budget. Jobs for the boys were also on the menu. The PTB of Roberto Jefferson, the expelled Congressman who blew the whistle on the mensalão payment-for-votes allegations, was promised that it could regain the posts it had lost. 

Scandal Starts to Run Out of Steam

Despite the tight vote, Lula and the Workers Party (PT) must have been reasonably satisfied with the result. It means that Lula now has his own man (albeit not a PT member) in charge of setting the agenda. The Senate chairman, Renan Calheiros is from the pro-government wing of the PMDB, so both houses of Congress are effectively in government hands.

Rebelo's main task will be to oversee the conclusion of the Congressional inquiries (CPIs) into the various scandals involving the allegations that the PT had been bribing Congressmen in return for votes. This issue has dominated the news since May but is now beginning to run out of steam and lose its shock value.

For example, the Post Office CPI has not met for more than two weeks. For the first time in months several of the weekly magazines have started putting other material on their cover pages. The signs are that the politicians are losing interest - the general population lost interest some time ago - and looking ahead to next year when we will have elections for the presidency, state governorships and Congress.

While the opposition parties will still milk the CPIs for all their worth, they will be focusing on their campaigns. The deadline for potential candidates to establish for which party they would stand has just passed. Since personal interest rather than party loyalty motivates a large section of Brazilian politicians there has been a mass migration.

The PT has lost its position as the majority party to the PMDB, as seven of its members defected to the new leftist PSOL or the PTB. The PTB has managed to maintain its numbers during these comings and goings, an astonishing achievement considering that it was at the center of the scandal.

The fact that Congressmen from other parties would join the PTB shows the contempt they have for the electorate, which voted for them on other party tickets. This party hopping is one of the greatest weaknesses in the Brazilian political system. Since the present Congress began sitting in 2003, around 260 changes have occurred. Some Congressmen have switched backwards and forwards and around and about several times. 

Despite this movement, the overall balance remains more or less the same, with the PT and its allies holding around 350 seats compared with around 370 in 2003 while the opposition parties have around 160 seats.

New Parties Emerge

One interesting outcome of the scandal has been the emergence of two new parties. which might provide presidential candidates next year. The PSOL (Party of Socialism and Freedom) was formed by a group of dissident PT members who were expelled in 2004 for voting against the government in Congress.

Its best-known member is Senator Heloísa Helena, a shameless self-publicist from the northeastern state of Alagoas. Her trademark white tee shirt, jeans and John Lennon granny glasses make her stand out among the grey suits and grey heads in Brasilia.

She has gained greater media coverage during the CPI hearings and we have become used to her strident voice, raised finger and sanctimonious attitude. When not on camera questioning witnesses she blatantly walks in front of the camera so we know she is still around.

She was recently expelled from a session after pointing a pen into another member's face and accusing him of being involved in pedophilia. He had accused her of having a sexual relationship with a prominent northeastern politician. Such is the quality of debate in the Brazilian parliament. 

Despite her human failings Helena represents the diehard leftist which dominated the PT until the party decided to join the modern world and ditch its outdated policies based on public ownership and protectionism. The PSOL has only recently been approved by the Electoral Commission (TSE) and is now officially in a position to nominate a presidential candidate.

If this happens, then Senator Helena is the obvious choice. She could be a real embarrassment to Lula should he stand again and could claim to represent the socialism he has abandoned. Polls have shown that she could attract around 5% of voters, a respectable figure for a radical leftwinger. However, the PSOL has a long way to go in terms of organizing a nationwide membership and winning some seats and it is too early to foresee any future for it. 

The other new party's clumsy name - the Municipalist Renovation Party (PMR) - shows it shares none of the PSOL's idealism. Its main member is none other than the vice president, José Alencar, who recently quit the PL over its alleged involvement in the bribes scandal.

Like the PL, the PMR is backed by evangelical groups and describes itself as a center-left party. It is expected to change its name shortly to the Republican Party (PR), presumably to cash in on the current trend by Brazilian politicians to call themselves Republican as though there was a chance of the monarchy being restored.

Unlike the PSOL, this party will have access to the evangelicals' national organization, financial resources and influence the various churches have over their members. Alencar has not announced his future plans but he could be a plausible candidate for the state governorship of his native Minas Gerais or even a presidential candidate. One thing is sure - he will not be Lula's running mate should Lula seek re-election.

The Cost of Corruption

Finally, we have seen the cost of political corruption to Brazil's reputation abroad in a listing of countries by competitiveness published by the World Economic Forum. Brazil has fallen to 65th position from 57th last year.

The WEF said the businessmen polled in the survey blamed a decline in the political environment between 2004 and 2005 for the fall in Brazil's competitiveness. Since the survey took place in May just before the current crisis arose, the chances are that the Brazil's ranking could fall even more next year. 

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish writer and consultant with long experience of Brazil. He is based in São Paulo and runs his own company Celtic Comunicações. This article originally appeared on his site www.brazilpoliticalcomment.com.br. He can be contacted at jf@celt.com.br.

© John Fitzpatrick 2005

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