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 Brazil had a new president for a day on November 13, 2006, a communist called Aldo Rebelo, who is chairman of the House of Representatives. While President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was visiting Venezuela the country was left in the hands of a member of a miniscule party which champions a discredited political creed. This was because Brazil's Constitution states that whenever the president and vice president are outside the country the chairman of the Lower House of Congress becomes acting president.
Lula's vice, José Alencar, was in the United States receiving medical treatment for a serious complaint and there is a chance that he may not last out Lula's second mandate which begins in January. Should this happen, then once again we will have people holding top executive positions who were not elected to them. This is not restricted to the presidency. For example, the state and city of São Paulo, with a population of over 40 million, are currently being run by a governor and mayor who took over by default when the incumbents - Geraldo Alckmin and José Serra - resigned to stand for other posts. This system has let Brazil down in the past yet will continue as long as the political parties remain as weak as they are at the moment. Let's look at the position of the vice president first. Lula's decision to choose Alencar as his running mate for the second mandate was irresponsible and typical of his couldn't care less approach to government. Alencar has been a feeble vice president, who has spent most of the last three years complaining about high interest rates and criticizing the Central Bank, even though it is trying to ensure that his own government's economic policies work. At the same time, he has dithered over taking decisions in Lula's absence. He also left his small PL party after an internal row and helped found another fringe party. More important though is the question of his health. Alencar is 75 and has been in hospital several times and it cannot be assumed that he will last another four years. Should he be forced to resign then Lula will be left without a deputy and the chairman of the Lower House will assume the second highest position in the land. It is not clear whether Rebelo will stay on as chairman but Lula is believed to favor him. This means that a Communist may be interim president of Brazil on many occasions in the coming years. There have been four occasions over the last half century in which the vice president has assumed supreme office: * In 1992 Itamar Franco took over when Fernando Collor stood down as impeachment proceedings began in Congress over allegations of corruption. * In 1985 the vice president, José Sarney, took over when the president Tancredo Neves (elected by an electoral college not directly by the people) died before assuming office. Sarney was president for five years. * In 1961 João Goulart took over when Jânio Quadros suddenly and mysteriously resigned after only seven months in office. * In 1954 João Café Filho took over when Getúlio Vargas committed suicide. In each of these cases the results were lamentable. With the exception of the Juscelino Kubitschek era (1956-1960), no president served a full term until Fernando Henrique Cardoso took office in 1995. Considering the precedents, it is almost a miracle that Cardoso managed to govern for two unbroken terms. Neither Sarney nor Franco had public credibility and were unable to cope with the economic crises which marked the period after the end of military rule. The repercussions in the earlier cases were more serious in that they effectively led to the imposition of military rule in 1964. US Experience The United States has had similar experiences. The most recent involved Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford who replaced Franklin Roosevelt, John Kennedy and Richard Nixon respectively. However, these vice presidents were members of the same party as the president. This is not the case in Brazil where no party is strong enough to nominate a presidential and vice presidential candidate. In order to get as much regional and "ideological" support as it can, the Brazilian "dream ticket" generally consists of a presidential candidate from the Southeast and a running mate from the Northeast. Fernando Henrique Cardoso's vice president, Marco Maciel, was from the state of Pernambuco and a member of the center-right PFL party. Lula was able to wear two hats - as a Nordestino by birth and a Paulista by adoption - and chose Alencar, who was from the important state of Minas Gerais and a successful businessman, to gain even wider support. By voting for Lula in the latest election, Brazilians might find that they have inadvertently voted for Aldo Rebelo. Turning to the situation in São Paulo, we have a state governor called Cláudio Lembo from the PFL who succeeded Alckmin from the PSDB. Lembo is as unimpressive as Alencar and was clearly out of his depth when the PCC criminal organization led an uprising in May in which several hundred people were killed. Lembo has publicly stated that he cannot wait until his last day in office comes. He has also allowed the governor-elect, José Serra, to make policy decisions even though Serra does not officially assume office until January. For his part, Serra stood down as mayor of São Paulo earlier this year and handed power over to his deputy, Gilberto Kassab, also from the PFL. Like Lembo, Kassab is virtually unknown and has no ideas on how to cope with the social problems which make life so difficult for the city's residents. Whereas Lembo will be out of office shortly, Kassab has another two years of his mandate to run. There is a lot of talk about political reforms to be carried out in Lula's second mandate but, unfortunately, it is unlikely that this particular issue will form part of it. John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish writer and consultant with long experience of Brazil. He is based in São Paulo and runs his own company Celtic Comunicações. This article originally appeared on his site www.brazilpoliticalcomment.com.br. He can be contacted at
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. © John Fitzpatrick 2006
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