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 The bewildering way in which Brazilian politics work was evident during the election for the chairmanship of the House of Representatives on February 1st when the new Congressional session started. The election was narrowly won by the Workers Party (PT) candidate against the wishes of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who founded the PT.
At the same time, some members of the main opposition party, the PSDB, voted for the PT candidate while the other main opposition party the PFL, which is supposed to be a center-right party, voted for the Communist candidate. Despite this personal setback, Lula is now in a better position than four years ago when his first mandate got under way. In theory, his alliance of around a dozen parties should give him an absolute majority in the 513-strong House of Representatives. He should have around 321 supporters compared with 240 in 2003 and 45 in the 81-strong Senate compared with 32 in 2003. However, this does not mean that he will have his own way and we can expect plenty of arm-wrestling and eye-balling between the Legislature and the Executive over the coming four years. One relief for Lula is that there should be no repetition of the "bribes for votes" scandal which dominated his first mandate. At that time, Lula's support was spread so widely that bribes were paid to some parties and Congressmen in return for their support. The investigation into the scandal unraveled a vast network of bribery involving millions of reais siphoned off from state-owned and private companies. It also destroyed the PT's image as an ethical party which was above the run of the mill corruption and skullduggery of Brazilian politics. Despite the ramifications, which led to most of Lula's key advisers and allies resigning or being sacked, Lula himself remained untainted and was re-elected with 60% of the vote. In fact, Lula might find that the PT is one of the main sources of problems this time round since the party is not happy with the way he has distanced himself from it while, at the same time, using its resources to help win his recent re-election. The new chairman of the House of Representatives, Arlindo Chinaglia, could try and get some revenge on Lula who wholeheartedly supported the Communist candidate, Aldo Rebelo, who was seeking re-election. The PT is also almost certain to demand greater representation among Lula's ministerial team when he finally gets round to naming it. Incredible as it may seem, Lula has still not formed a new government, more than two months after winning the election and one month into his second mandate. He has made it clear that he is not beholden to the PT and said that he would not be forced into offering the party more power within his cabinet even if Chinaglia were to win. However, Lula may find he has to backtrack somewhat since he will need Congressional support for a number of critical measures. These include constitutional amendments to the CPMF tax on financial transfers and budgetary items. These are essential if Lula's Accelerated Growth Plan aimed at boosting Brazil's sluggish growth rate to 5% a year, is to get moving. The plan, known locally as the PAC, is Lula's main platform for his second mandate and consists of a variety of measures including higher government spending, fiscal incentives and greater availability of credit to specific sectors. The package was greeted with little enthusiasm by the market, which felt that unless it was accompanied by moves to curb government spending and implement reforms to the tax system and labor laws, it would not bring long-term sustainable growth. The situation in the Senate was easier. Lula's candidate, Renan Calheiros of the PMDB, easily won by a higher-than-expected margin of 51 votes to 28. However, the government will still have some problems in the Senate as the anti-government faction of the PMDB - officially Lula's main ally - has around six Senators who could go their own way. In his acceptance speech, the new Senate chairman called for reforms of the political system, particularly in relation to party loyalty. It is a sign of the urgent need for this reform that, as he was speaking, no less than 18 members of the House of Representatives were switching parties. Of these, eight were members of opposition parties who had decided to throw their lot in with the winners and join the government while the others were members of the governing "alliance". John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish writer and consultant with long experience of Brazil. He is based in São Paulo and runs his own company Celtic Comunicações. This article originally appeared on his site www.brazilpoliticalcomment.com.br. He can be contacted at jf@celt.com.br. © John Fitzpatrick 2007
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I just hope Lula can keep his party and the left parties' middle ages ideologies away from the Brazilian Constitution.