Brazzil

I am Chinese and I want China focus on finance, resource, space and IT sector. In particular helping small to medium size companies. Big companies like IBM and M$ are overprice and political.

Reply to EU
written by Ricardo Amaral, 2007-10-05 03:15:38
No, I am not talking about a currency peg – that was a disaster for Argentina when they pegged the Argentinean peso to the US dollar in the 1990’s.

Among other things that strategy helped destroy the Argentinean economy and put them out of business.

Probably the $ 200 billion dollar purchase of reais over a period of time would make the US dollar decline versus the real and might be enough to bring to the 1 : 1 ratio between the two currencies.

From that point on the real would lock in based on a certain relationship between the currencies of China, South Korea and Japan the main countries that will adopt the new Asian currency.

And Brazil would follow the rules and regulations that these currencies should be following before they drop their currencies and adopt the new Asian currency. It is a system very similar to what happened to the countries of Europe during the process when they adopted the euro as their new currency.

I am not going into a further detail regarding the procedure that they have to follow, but I wrote many articles over the years about Brazil and the euro and the procedure and guidelines will be very similar to what happened when the European countries adopted the euro - and you can find the information on my blog at:

http://brazzilnews.blogspot.com/


The one point that most people forget is that as the US dollar start declining against the real - as it has been the case since Lula became president of Brazil in Jan 2003 – the real went from $ 4 reais per US$ 1 to $ 2 reais per US$ 1. And in another 2 years the ratio can be $ 1 real per US$ 1.

As the US dollar decline versus the real – all the assets in Brazil become more valuable in term of US dollars.

Continuing from part I.
First of all, you cannot tell me you can predict where the Real will be relative to whatever currency. Second, the same monetary policy problems that you can have with a peg occur with a currency adoption that you suggest, like the Euro. Fact is, the adoption of the Euro has not been this kingdom of heaven you make it out to be.

If the Chinese decide to follow the plan that I described on this 4-part series then you bet I can predict what is going to happen between the US dollar and the Brazilian real.

The real would appreciate versus the US dollar as the Chinese starts using their extra US dollars to buy the real to invest in Brazil.

The Chinese also could decide to invest in Brazil the actual US dollars that they are receiving from current cashflows, and keep their loans to Brazil in a declining currency – if they decide to do that it would be good for Brazil, but that option would not help the Chinese on their efforts of diversifying their foreign currency reserves from US dollars.

As a whole the euro has been very good to Euroland when you start analyzing each individual part in detail then you are going to find that some areas did better than another.

You want a perfect system, but I can tell you that there is no such a thing on the real world.

The truth is for the US dollar. The Federal Reserve policy can help some states and at the same time can be bad to some other areas of the country since California has a different economic make up than the economy of Oklahoma or Texas – and the economy of Iowa is different than the economy of New Jersey.

The case that you are trying to make against the euro can also be made against the US dollar.

If you had grasped that the world has been changing at the speed of light and everything is changing very fast including the area of international foreign exchange reserves.

If you expect that the world will be stuck on the past then you are out of luck.

In the coming years the global economy will adjust to the new realities of the current world for example:

We will have 4 or 5 major world currencies instead of the 2 that we have today – US dollar and the euro.

In another ten years we will have the US dollar, the euro, the new Asian currency, the gulf states new currency, and even some other options that are not in the radar today such as a new Russian and new satellites currency, and so on….

The days of US dollar global monopoly is coming to an end. You can bet on that.

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United States - Gross domestic product (GDP)

Year 2002 = US$ 10.5 trillion

Year 2003 = US$ 11.0 trillion

Year 2004 = US$ 11.7 trillion

Year 2005 = US$ 12.4 trillion

Year 2006 = US$ 13.2 trillion


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Now we look at the same information from a Brazilian perspective - since President Lula became president of Brazil in January of 2003.

In December of 2002 the United States GDP in terms of the Brazilian currency it was:
$ 42 trillion reais.

In December of 2006 the United States GDP in terms of the Brazilian currency it was:
$ 26.4 trillion reais.

From the Brazilian point of view the US economy has been shrinking in the last 4 years.


Note: The foreign exchange rate between the real versus the US dollar was:

At the end of 2002 = US$ 1.00 equal R$ 4.00

At the end of 2006 = US$ 1.00 equal R$ 2.00

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The use of 2007 dollars to pay for 2002 debt makes the debt easier to pay by at least 3%. Or if the debt was repaid in Reals it would be reduced by nearly 50%.

Not long ago the city of Tokyo was worth more than the whole USA. That situation didn´t last long.

Conservatives have been saying the dollar is doomed for at least thirty years. What´s new? So, many have invested in commodities and real estate and equities, not dollar denominated investments.

The dollar is low because the USA feels that that is in their best interest for now.

Conservatives have been saying the dollar is doomed for at least thirty years. What´s new? So, many have invested in commodities and real estate and equities, not dollar denominated investments.

The dollar is low because the USA feels that that is in their best interest for now.

De acordo,Senhor Ric

things too ponder

the chinese do not forgive when screw by a business partner.

if they find out that you are taking them for a ride than you will end up on the bottom of the pile

they do not care if it is in your culture to rob from them all they see is a thief ,

and look at there laws on that in there country

too go into a deal with them is dancing with the devil

if you dishoner your contract they will get you .

and guess what the USA will not help brasil out of that mess
with a million man army and the navy they have brasil would last less than 48 hours

and then you would have to learn chinese

haha haha you are right Forest. The Chinese have long memories. The Chinese are better at cheating than the Brazilians for they have thousands of years more experience. If you cheat do it well, have the intelligence not to get caught. Above all the Chinese respect intelligence. Read the contract before you give your word, it more than likelly involves your first born son. The Chinese have an expression in business. . .'first your f**k me, then I f**k you." They will make it so the first transaction is highly profitable so that you will come back for the second. The second will be of less advantage than the first and so on until the advantage is increasingly Chinese.

if you dishoner your contract they will get you .

and guess what the USA will not help brasil out of that mess
with a million man army and the navy they have brasil would last less than 48 hours

A good comment, Admiral

Watch out for all the eat-all-you-can Chinese buffets competing with the Brasilian churrascarias.

You said: “the Chinese do not forgive when screw by a business partner”

Are you trying to say that the United States is an exception to this rule?

You are saying that Americans should start learning Chinese?

The United States has been borrowing at a rate of US$ 300 billion dollars per year from China – the outstanding bill right now is around $ 1.2 trillion dollars.

Do you believe the United States will have the cash flow to be able to repay all of this debt in future years?

Only idiots believe on that.

I am exaggerating a little right now – the Chinese might get repaid but in a currency that has depreciated so much that you will need a wheel barrel full of US dollars to get $1 of a major currency of the future.

To make even simpler for people to understand the Chinese will be repaid US$ 0.01 for each $ 100 dollars that the US had borrowed in the past. The Chinese will be repaid in a currency almost worthless in value when compared with the value of the currency when the original loans were made. Inflation will take care of that.

For example: what goods and services US$ 1.00 bought in 1946 in December 2006 you needed US$ 10.34 to buy the same stuff.

That is what you were thinking when you said the Chinese hate to be taken for a ride?

By the way, here is something that I had posted on another forum yesterday.


October 5, 2007

The Japanese foreign exchange reserves in US dollars are also approaching the $ 1 trillion dollar level.

Today, between China and Japan they are holding over $ 2 trillion dollars in US dollar foreign exchange reserves.

At the current rate China will have $ 2 trillion dollars in US dollar foreign exchange reserves by the end of 2010.

By the end of 2015 the Chinese will have enough foreign exchange reserves in US dollars to be able to wallpaper every home and apartment in Asia with US$100 dollar bills.


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Japan foreign reserves $ 945.6 bln at end Sept.
Reuters - October 4, 2007

TOKYO, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Japan's foreign reserves, the world's second largest, rose to a record $945.601 billion at the end of September, the Ministry of Finance said on Friday.

The government does not disclose the currency breakdown of the external reserves. But historical data on Japan's currency intervention, which has mostly taken the form of dollar buying, suggests most of Tokyo's hefty reserves are in dollars.

Japan has been reluctant to diversify its forex reserves and to seek higher returns by making active investments, unlike many other countries which have been recently investing a portion of its reserves in stocks and other high-risk high-return assets.

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You said: “The dollar is low because the USA feels that that is in their best interest for now.”

The value of the US dollar is declining because the United States is borrowing from the rest of the world like there is no tomorrow. In the last 6 years the United States has been borrowing almost 90 percent of global savings year after year.

The United States is fighting multiple wars in Iraq and in Afghanistan that basically are financed by foreign borrowers.

The emerging countries including Brazil, China, India – are investing in the future in new infrastructure and so on…. On the meantime the US is investing its resources in wars that they have already lost and is costing them a fortune – not only now but also in the future.

It’s just a matter of time but eventually very high inflation will return to the US economy as a result of all this defense spending.

The high inflation of the late 1970’s was a direct result from the defense spending related to the Vietnam War. It does not matter how the government try to spin it but there’s only one result at the end of the day – and it is called INFLATION.

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Today Brazil is in a better financial position than any other time that I can recall.

Brazil might be in the best financial position at least in the last 100 years.

Brazil paid all its IMF debt, plus all the debt to the Club of Paris. Not only that but today Brazil have enough foreign currency reserves – about $ 163 billion dollars – to be able to pay for any outstanding debt in foreign currency.

When you look at the balance sheet of Brazil as a country today they deserve AAA rating.

To answer your question a lot of the Brazilian debt was in US dollar and as the US dollar started depreciating against the real in the last 4 years became cheaper and cheaper to repay the outstanding loans in US dollars.

During this period Brazil had a major inflow of US dollars money earned from selling its natural resources to China.

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It seems China has a 2 trillion Dollar vested interest in supporting U.S. economic and foreign policy. It would be economically foolish for China to jeopardize its investment. The U.S. dollar ultimately is backed by armament. Secondarily it is backed by natural resources. And thirdly it is backed by technology, ie space, communication and aeronautical technologies.

The lesson of Viet Nam was do not lose the war. I do not think It is the U.S.'s intent to lose. There were 3 in the Axis of Evil. . . Iraq, Iran and N.Korea. Iran is Act III.

you said brazil wasinvesting in
infrastructure where ?????

for the rich , not for the poor , not in schools ,not in sewer and water compaines .
and your banks 123 ways too make the coustomers pay .
cell phone compaines some of the higest in the world
internet when you can place it in your home you pay double the price as any country .

your only aircraft company only puts the parts tougeather .

you have the higest paid goverment in the world ,
and brasil has more goverment emploeyse than they have in the privats sector

and not the least you are selling off your natural resorces of brasil as you said
leaving your poor in a worse state than the poor in china

who would you rather work for chinese or yourself

The last two superpowers also were backed by military power and look what happened to them. They did not lose their status as a superpower because another country defeated them in a war. Defense spending put the last two superpowers in the poor house.

In the last 6 years the United States has been following in the footsteps of these two ex-superpowers - the English Empire and the Soviet Empire.

The US has been depleting its natural resources for over 100 years, as I mentioned before the US is falling behind the Asian countries in many of the technologies of tomorrow. In space the US has been stuck in 1980 - the Shuttle program has accomplished so far the goals that they were supposed to achieve by 1980.

This Shuttle program started when Richard Nixon was the President of the US in 1972
By the year 2007 the Shuttle were supposed to have accomplished more than 10,000
trips. Besides the big achievement in the Shuttle program is to see if the Shuttle is not going to Blow up on the way up, or at re-entry. And in the last few missions the astronauts spent most of their time in space trying to fix the Shuttle to be able to return to earth.

Basically the US space program has been stuck in the year 1980 for a long time.

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United States - Gross domestic product (GDP)

Year 2002 = US$ 10.5 trillion

Year 2003 = US$ 11.0 trillion

Year 2004 = US$ 11.7 trillion

Year 2005 = US$ 12.4 trillion

Year 2006 = US$ 13.2 trillion


**********


Now we look at the same information from an European Union perspective –
From December 31, 2002 to December 31, 2006.

The United States GDP in terms of euros it was:

In December of 2002 = $ 10.0 trillion euros.
In December of 2006 = $ 10.0 trillion euros.

Conclusion: From the European Union’s point of view the US economy has gone nowhere in the last 4 years in term of euros.


Note: The foreign exchange rate between the US dollar versus the euro was:

At the end of 2002 = US$ 1.00 equal $ 1.04830 euros

At the end of 2006 = US$ 1.00 equal $ 1.32030 euros

And things are getting even worse since in September of 2007 the US dollar traded at one point at: US$ 1.00 equal $ 1.43 euros - and the euro can reach the level of $ 1.45 by the end of 2007.

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1) Why the idiot making his calculation on Brazilian/USA GDP comparisons make the same comparisons in a 10, 20 or 50 years period ??????
You forgot, on purpose, to mention that a 4 Reals to the US$ rate, was after a 75 % Reals DEVALUATION.
It is like saying a stock price went from Us$ 1 to 0,25 and then went up to 0,50 US$.
You applaude the doubling in price but forget the original 75 % price decline. Traditional way of Brazilian stats : look and measure only the rosier time frame ....and forget the darker time frame
Only idiots can do that.Only brazilians have such a vision. But that is the only way Brazilians could see how good they truly NOT are.

But now do the same calculations for the last 70 years. And you will find out that you would need MUCH MUCH MORE THAN A TRILLION OF YOUR THEN CURRENCY ...to have ONLY 1 (Yess...ONE) US$ !

Instead of comparing numbers when they please you by comparing a bottom to a top, but forgetting the tops to bottoms doesnt make you more wealthy....over time ! sorry for you !

Reality being that in the last 10 years, your currency is still DOWN 40 % against the weak US$ !

Nothing to be proud of......in my view !

And contrary to you I dont take a time frame that pleases my stats.
Reality being the further back we look at, the worse it is !

2) China investments !
- Chineses are not dumb enough to invest in Brazil, when they can have a higher return...in AFRICA or elsewhere.
- Why should they invest in Brazilian Broadband, when they dont have enough....locally ?????
- Why should they invest in Brazilian mortgage, when they dont have enough real estate for themselves....locally ?
- Why should they invest in nuclear power plants in Brazil, when they dont have enough plants....locally ????


More idiot than the ideas of Ricardo, there is not ! But I suppose HE is expecting others to do what Brazil is UNABLE AND UNWILLING TO DO !

Ohhhh Ricardo, stupid question :
Would Brazil agree and accept a US$ 200-400 billion investments from China, by letting them acquire both
Petrobras and Cia Vale ????????? Laugh....laaugh....laugh !!!!!
As you should know this where they wish to invest....not in Brazilian Broadband or Brazilian mortgage !
They dont care for the developments of others, they are still very poor in per capita basis.
They only expect to secure more basic commodities long term, mostly energy, ferrous and non ferrous metals, for themselves, not for others well being !
In agriculture, they need to import for now, due to their very high economic growth. But no doubt that they will be nearly self sufficient in 2 or 3 decades at most.
And to my knowledge, in agriculture, you will have to face competition from other exporting countries, mostly more developed than Brazil, such as USA, Argentina and Australia. And dont under estimate Russia.

Russia is a BIG EXPORTER exporter of wheat....while Brazil is one of the world largest....IMPORTER !!!!!!
Furthermore on sugar, if Russia is buying ONE THIRD of Brazil total exports..for the time being, Russia is investing tons of money to produce more sugar by themselves. If you read the latest report from F.O. Licht, Russia is going to import less and less sugar.

Russia is also by far your largest meat importer. Not for long !
They have far more foreign currency reserves than Brazil and better yet.....they are the world second in oil production, with very large reserves in both oil AND natural gas !

Ricardo, sorry but you are a typical Brazilian junkie...with no common sense, and no knowledge of what others expect....for their money !

Ohhh I forgot to mention that Russia is a large producer in most metals, including gold, platinum.

In my view, China will be better off by investing (your) US$ 200 billion in Russia than in Brazil.

"The use of 2007 dollars to pay for 2002 debt makes the debt easier to pay by at least 3%."

How did you come to 3 % ?
Brazilian maths or AES maths ?????
It also happens that most of your long term borrowings were made when the exchange rate was still ONE TO ONE !!!!!! and today your currency is still DOWN 40 %...making you you pay MORE....NOT LESS....even with today exchange rate-

AES....you are manipulating constantly simple maths....by using a bottom to top approach....forgetting the previous tops to bottoms far worse than bottom to top !
Can you catch and understand this ?


Ohhhh......and why have you repaid most of your debts....earlier than 2007 ...if you are/were so smart ??????
Brazilian vision ??????

Ohhh.....and why has Brazil invested most of their foreign currency reserves....in the US$ ?
Brazilians ENJOY putting their savings in what is depreciating....month after month ?????

Not so great, when you do a simple and fair analysis !

Ohhhh....AND ALL THE WORLD CURRENCIES (except the Venezuelian and Argentina currencies, 2 members of the Mercorsur....curiously) have been very strong against the US$.....not only the BRL !!!!

Why doesnt Brazilians produce a long term chart against a BASKET of currencies ?
TOO SHAMEFUL...is the answer.
Therefore...OUTRAGEOUS.....since Brazilians dont like the truth and enjoy manipulating stats and numbers !

You call me a joke, but did you at least take the time to read what you posted?

What happened 20, 30, 50, 100 years ago it does not matter it is water under the bridge.

What matters is what has happened recently and in the future.

The last 4 years is just the beginning what and see what is going to happen to Brazil in the coming years.

Brazil has a younger population than the US.

Brazil has a cleaner balance sheet.

Brazil is leapfrogging into the future and you don’t have a clue about what is really going on in Brazil.

You said: “Chineses are not dumb enough to invest in Brazil, when they can have a higher return...in AFRICA”

Then they should put all their money in Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Congo, and so on – and let all these countries supply the food necessary to feed the Chinese population. By the way, don’t forget Zimbabwe since that African country would be one of the most reliable sources of food to help feed the Chinese population in the coming years.

Petrobras and Cia Vale do Rio Doce are both traded on the stock market – and anybody can buy there shares.

You did not read my entire article otherwise you would not be making all your silly comments about agriculture.


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China’s foreign exchange reserves:


Dec 31, 2004 = $ 610 billion in total foreign exchange reserves which included about $ 500 billion in US dollars.


Dec 31, 2005 = $ 819 billion dollars in total foreign exchange reserves which included about $ 700 billion in US dollars.


Dec 31, 2006 = $ 1.06 trillion dollars in total foreign exchange reserves which included about $ 850 billion in US dollars.


Sept 2007 = $ 1.4 trillion dollars in total foreign exchange reserves which includes about $ 1.1 trillion in US dollars.


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Let’s see how well China’s US dollar investment has been doing in terms of euros.

Let’s take the US dollars that China was holding as of the end of 2005.

That US$ 700 billion dollars was worth $ 591 billion euros as of Dec 31, 2005.

That US$ 700 billion dollars was worth $ 530 billion euros as of Dec 31, 2006.

That US$ 700 billion dollars was worth $ 490 billion euros as of Sept of 2007.

In euro terms China lost $ 101 billion euros on the amount of US dollars that they were holding as foreign exchange reserves from Dec 2005 to Sept 2007. This is the amount they lost only on that particular piece – never mind the rest of US dollars that they are holding.


*******


In Dec of 2006 China was holding $ 850 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserve.

That US$ 850 billion dollars was worth $ 644 billion euros as of Dec 31, 2006.

That US$ 850 billion dollars was worth $ 594 billion euros as of Sept of 2007.


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Exchange rate US dollar versus euro

As of 12/31/2005 = 1.18440

As of 12/31/2006 = 1.32030

As of Sept 2007 = 1.43


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By the end of 2007 China should be holding at least $ 1.2 trillion dollars in US dollar foreign exchange reserve. I hate to think about China’s foreign exchange losses in term of euros when the euro reaches the US$ 1.00 = $ 1.5 euros level some time in 2008.

Since you think that this is a smart way of doing business then I love to do some business with you some time.

You must be a very smart business person if you think that taking this beating on your foreign exchange reserves is a good business and investing in Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Congo, and Zimbabwe is a better bet than investing in Brazil.

I rest my case.

The only joke here is Ch.c.

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I guess you did not read my entire article as yet - you can read it on my blog since I posted all 4-parts of this series of articles as a single report.

After you read the entire report you will see that my plan will help fix a lot of the problems that we have today in Brazil and the plan would help create the infrastructure and needed for the 21st century at an affordable price for the Brazilian population.

I can’t fix the past – my plan is for the future.

Yes, Lula announced a few months ago about a major investment that the government is going to make in Brazil in the coming years.

You said: “your only aircraft company only puts the parts together.”

I don’t know if you know that – but today Boeing is not doing even the design of its airplanes anymore in the United States – they are also just assembling the parts in Seattle.


*****


In the meantime you be able to read the entire article on my blog at:
The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil.

China direct investment in Brazil

http://chinadirectinvestmentinbrazil.blogspot.com/

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Yoda: Let us compare countries by PPP regardless of the vagaries of currency exchange rates the Dollar has suffered the value of the Dollar within the economy of the U.S. self evidently provides greater value than anywhere else in the world.

The only concern the Dollar would have is an inflationary concern; and that is being controlled by the Feds.

Dollar denominated goods in the U.S. are a good buy in foreign currencies, encouraging exports and investment. The Stock Market is a bargain measured in Euro's and other currencies and for that reason as well as security and stability foreign funds have driven the Market to records.

Buy while you can because the Dollar is never static.




GDP as Purchasing Power Paritry CIA Data

1 World $59,590,000,000,000
2 United States $12,410,000,000,000
3 European Union $12,180,000,000,000
4 China $8,182,000,000,000
5 Japan $3,914,000,000,000
6 India $3,699,000,000,000
7 Germany $2,454,000,000,000
8 United Kingdom $1,869,000,000,000
9 France $1,822,000,000,000
10 Italy $1,651,000,000,000
11 Brazil $1,568,000,000,000

Ricardo:
The comparison to the fall of Russia and England to the U.S. is specious. The U.S. is at war. It has been attacked and will be attacked with all the force that Islamic Jihad is capable of projecting. It is not a matter of choice, but of necessity. And regardless of the economic costs it will be prosecuted.
England had comparatively little natural resources.
Russia had become a nation of un-enthused vodka drinking workers. There was no incentive to produce.

"Russia had become a nation of un-enthused vodka drinking workers. There was no incentive to produce." And AMBEV has and will continue to master the art of producing fine products at favorable prices to keep the un-enthused beer drinking Brasillian non-workers right where Bin Lula et. al. want them unincentivised to be except for the roving pillaging hordes already amassing. Why do you think they are continueing to try to aqcuire military hardware, missles, ect., ect.. (There's a war going on!!)

I liked the new nick name AES gave you

BTW, did you read the entire article of Ricardo Amaral (like I did) or just the two parts?

GDP as Purchasing Power Parity CIA Data

1 World $59,590,000,000,000
2 United States $12,410,000,000,000
3 European Union $12,180,000,000,000
4 China $8,182,000,000,000
5 Japan $3,914,000,000,000


Do you believe that the US Purchasing Power Parity would be that high without the trillions of borrowings from foreign countries?

By the way, the Gulf oil producing countries of the Middle East also have an over supply of US dollars – in May of 2007 their US dollar foreign exchange reserves were more than $ 1.6 trillion dollars.

China came from nowhere and in a matter of a few years they already have a Purchasing Power Parity of $ 8 trillion dollars. And if they were not financing the US Purchasing Power Parity then China would be almost as great as the US by now.

Remember the US government is $ 9 trillion dollars in debt and the states have another $ 2 trillion dollars in outstanding debt. And the US economy has another $ 70 trillion dollars in debt that is coming due in relation to all the benefits that they will have to pay to the Baby boom generation.

For all practical purposes even if the US were not pissing all its borrowed money fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – the US government still would be insolvent.

You said: “The comparison to the fall of Russia and England to the U.S. is specious. The U.S. is at war.”

These empires died a slow death – a death by taxation since at the end of the day someone has to pay for all the money that they pissed away in defense spending and adventures around the world.

The reality is the US was attacked by 19 terrorists armed with box cutters and a very clever plan.

And the United States reaction to an attack by a hand full of people armed with box cutters has been = US defense spending of $ 4 trillion dollars.

If that is not the definition of Pathetic then I don’t know what the word Pathetic means.

Here is some actual figures that I posted on another forum on February 20, 2007:

United States government actual budget

United States Government Annual Budget during the Bush administration.
Each year, on the first Monday in February, the President of the United States submits his budget request to Congress for the following fiscal year:

United States federal budget, 2008 - $2.9 trillion (submitted February 2007 by President Bush)
United States federal budget, 2007 - $2.8 trillion (submitted February 2006 by President Bush)
United States federal budget, 2006 - $2.6 trillion (submitted February 2005 by President Bush)
United States federal budget, 2005 - $2.4 trillion (submitted 2004 by President Bush)
United States federal budget, 2004 - $2.2 trillion (submitted 2003 by President Bush)
United States federal budget, 2003 - $2.1 trillion (submitted 2002 by President Bush)
United States federal budget, 2002 - $2.0 trillion (submitted 2001 by President Bush)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total US government Budget for period year 2001 to year 2007 = US$ 17 trillion.

We can estimate that the US government budget for the last year of the Bush administration it will be at least US$ 3 trillion dollars – a figure that will bring the total US government budget for the 8-year period of the Bush administration to US$ 20 trillion dollars.


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Here is Bushes’ military spending - this does not include ANY costs related to Afghanistan or Iraq as they are all in supplemental spending bills:

For Fiscal Year 2007 it is $470.0 billion
For Fiscal Year 2006 it was $441.6 billion
For Fiscal Year 2005 it was $420.7 billion
For Fiscal Year 2004 it was $399.1 billion
For Fiscal Year 2003 it was $396.1 billion.
For Fiscal Year 2002 it was $343.2 billion.
For Fiscal Year 2001 it was $ 296.0 billion

Iraq and Afghanistan supplementary spending including 2007 = over $ 500 billion.

--------------------------------------------------------

Total Bush administration actual defense spending for 7-year period 2001 to 2007 = US$ 3,266.7 billion


For Fiscal year 2008 we can very conservatively estimate that Defense Spending will be at least another US$ 500 billion.

Including this estimate for defense spending for 2008 that would bring the total defense spending for the 8-year period of the Bush administration to the amount of US$ 3,766.7 billion. Plus the supplementary amounts that the government it is going to request the total adjusted amount for defense spending for the 8-years of the Bush administration it can reach the US$ 4 trillion dollar level.

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You said: “your only aircraft company only puts the parts together.”

I don’t know if you know that – but today Boeing is not doing even the design of its airplanes anymore in the United States – they are also just assembling the parts in Seattle.

Forrest, the original EMBRAER planes were designed by our ITA engineers,along with engineers from other countries. I am proud of it. Now, after the company was privatized, they started outsourcing the manufacturing of the components to other countries.However, it does not mean the founders of EMBRAER do not deserve credit.

Ricardo, Boeing planes are designed by the American engineers and the manufacturing is outsourced to other countries, just like the privatized EMBRAER does. FHC´s government decided to privatize two organizations run by competent Brasilian professionals:EMBRAER and TELEBRAS. Those professionals are already forgotten and forsaken.

As a matter of interest to you, directing you to a link of "Estadão".

http://www.estadao.com.br/esta...1464,0.php

Do you really think that the Trade Attachés of varios countries based in their respective Embassies in Brasilia dont read the Brasilian News Papers?

Why do you think they are continueing to try to aqcuire military hardware, missles, ect., ect.. (There's a war going on!!)

Do you mean to say that there is a big war going on between Smirnoff & AMBEV ?

My dad was an engineer at Douglas and way back in the 1950´s he was in touch with people at ITA or IPD and they sent him several components to analize. I think the main guy was of Russian descent. But when I visited SJC in about 1971 there were also French dudes working on the first Bandeirante.

But aviation is international, always has been, but the bottom line is putting concepts together into a saleable product and Embraer has been very successful in that.

Our relatives working at Boeing in Seattle and Renton would dispute the idea that the 787 was designed elsewhere. I saw the first 787 computer generated concept video in Washington State back in about 2003, and the initial engineering was all done in-house in the states.

But aviation is international, always has been, but the bottom line is putting concepts together into a saleable product and Embraer has been very successful in that.

Our relatives working at Boeing in Seattle and Renton would dispute the idea that the 787 was designed elsewhere. I saw the first 787 computer generated concept video in Washington State back in about 2003, and the initial engineering was all done in-house in the states.

You are right Ric, the aviation is international indeed and I am glad that your dad also contributed to the Brasilian Aviation.I have flown in Bandeirantes and found them to be reliable and since they were turbo prop and flying in low altitude, you could see lots of country side.Especially on the days of "Céu de brigadeiro".

BTW, I do believe that your relatives dispute the fact that B 787 was designed elsewhere.It is very similar to designing any product ,defining the specs and outsourcing to manufacture,be in your own country or elsewhere to cut down the cost of production.

Emb had problems with their outsourcing and ulitmately had to bring folks (from far away places) in-house and do it themselves. Good for them and for getting the job done. So goes a majority of endeavors even in places that have a majority of the population in this world. I don't like the Boeing solution to things though - just keep throwing bodies at it until it's no longer the long pole. Very inefficient and it both demeans and hobbles the smart crafty folk (who were supposed to be carrying the ball but obviously weren't running fast enough in any direction much less the right one).

look at china , most all things made there have been recalled by the US and the EU
but brasil still brings in there stuff and sells it to the people

dont buy there condoms with over a billion people i dont think they work well .

and a muslum brasil no drinking , no sex , women would have to cover from head to toe .

and 5 times a day praying to meca

cant see that

we need to do the idea that came up in the 90 with a single monatary note
for all the north and south amercia

save on printing , counterfiting , and with nafta and the other free trade zones coming up work out beter for all parties

You said: “we need to do the idea that came up in the 90 with a single monetary note
for all the north and south America”

I assume you are suggesting that all the countries in the Americas adopt the US dollar.

That’s a terrible idea.

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I saw in the news about 7 or 10 days ago, I believe it was on CNN - Lou Dobbs – as part of the news they were describing how Boeing’s new Dreamliner was a plane designed around the world and the plane became a better plane because all the manufacturers of most parts helped in the design of everything on this new airplane – and many parts were improved because of the input into the design of this airplane from all this people from around the world.

The point that they were trying to make is that Boeing was sharing too much proprietary information (companies secrets) with all these companies around the world giving these companies the opportunity to leapfrog and improve on all this technology and some day become competitors to Boeing.

In one of the books that I just finished reading it - Wikinomics How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything By Don Tapscott – in chapter 8 of that book “The Global Plant Floor” they describe in detail Boeing’s new way of designing and assembling the new generation of aircrafts.

The chapter is too long for me to summarize in a few sentences – but let me quote only the following: “Leading-edge aerospace and defense companies are responding with global, flexible, agile operational structures that enable continuous innovation, greater efficiency, and lower costs.”

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I agree 100&#xwi;th you. America runs on borrowed money, period. My brother-in-law is a co-owner of an actuary firm in London, Asia, Europe and Latin America, and I have seen him loose investment in the US, but everywhere else his is making money. He has an office here in D.C. and one in San Diego and is advising foreign investors to look at other countries. The dollar is weak in Europe and compared to the British Pound is like a piss in a bucket. Reality will sink with Americans, eventually they will learn that you if you borrow, you will have to repay. At the current rate of spending, we and the next generation will have to work until we give our last breath.

And here is a good smear campaign that works in this country:
"look at china , most all things made there have been recalled by the US and the EU
but brasil still brings in there stuff and sells it to the people"

Please, would you kindly look at the volume of Chinese exports and the recall number? Talk about exaggerating facts.

I think this whole issue should make people think twice before go to Wal-Mart's to buy CHEAP goods, you can't have your cake and eat it too! http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com...42516.aspx
"Browne pointed out that market forces – often from the U.S. – are a lot of what drives the cost-cutting that leads to dangerous products. "The relentless pressure on Chinese factories to bring down costs, to shave pennies off of each product that they sell... that in part is driven by American-end users, by the Wal-Mart’s of this world who keep pushing the cost of the price down to factories in China, but also driven by the higher costs of industrial inputs into the factories."

Someone in one of the postings regarding this article did imply that government officials in Brazil are the most expensive bunch in the world regarding their salaries.

I doubt that the above information is correct considering the size of the total Brazilian government budget when compared with the government budget of other countries.

In my opinion a lot of things does not make sense – for example:

Because the real appreciated a lot in recent years when you translate figures from the real into US dollars it seems like the numbers are increasing a lot in Brazil even when the figures in local currency stays the same.

The total budget of the Brazilian government has increased in term of US dollars to about $ 220 billion dollars for the year 2007.

Compare that with two figures from the US economy:

The United States needs to borrow from foreigners a lot more than that amount per year for the US economy to continue to be afloat.

Year after year the US government budget includes the payment of interest on the US government cumulative outstanding debt – and year after year the US government has to pay in interest alone over $ 300 billion dollars.

Keep in mind the US government can’t cut the budget in that area during a recession or at any time since this is interest on the money that they borrowed in the past.

Not long ago this interest figure alone used to be twice of the entire budget of the Brazilian government.

The US defense budget plus the supplementary money to keep the Iraq and Afghanistan wars going are over 3 times the amount of the Brazilian government budget – even after we take in consideration the massive devaluation of the US dollar versus the real.

When you put some of the information in the spotlight how anyone can argue that the United States it is a better investment for China than Brazil.

Remember the Chinese government will be holding over $ 1.2 trillion dollars by the end of 2007.

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In 2006 China had a positive trade balance with the U.S. of nearly 233 billion dollars. When you have a customer of that magnitude as a seller you do everything in your power to help the customer. You carry his paper and do nothing to jeopardize the business that is going on. The $1.2 trillion the Chinese is holding is the price of doing business. The value of the dollar is a perceived value. There is no real value as it is not backed by gold. If, however, you were add up all the capital assets in the United States, businesses, real estate, mining, farms, timber, manufacturing, and all other capital assets the value of such assets make this $1.2 trillion a pittance. The U.S. remains asset rich and credit worthy as its equity as a nation, far exceeds all its debts. In addition the business capacity remains at some $12 trillion a year. The U.S. by all accounts is a good investment. If it were not, the world would not make the U.S. the largest capital market in the world. The capital of the world seeks the safety and stability of the U.S. because it is backed by the force of law subject to public transparency and scrutiny.

I agree that the US has a lot of equity, it also has a lot of debt. This debt will be payed by people like me and my kids, how do you think the government will get a positive balance again? More taxes, less investment in education-last year Loudoun County and Fairfax County announced a new budget: cut, cut , cut. This will have consequences down the road, you mess around with education, you mess around with the future of a country. I have to disagree with you on the US being the financial capital of the world. I think London continues to excel on that front, just take a look at how much that city has in terms of value. Pretty much all hedge funds corporation are located in London. I take my brother in law as an example, a graduate from Cambridge University, has worked all his life in London, will never move to the US. He has an office here, but headquarters remains in London. The city is the financial heart of Europe, and possibly the world. As I said, he has lost money in this country and made loads more in Russia, India and Middle East. After the house market crisis, European banks are very skeptical about the US economy. I travel to London frequently, went to Montreal last week, the conversations are about the same-Will the fall of the US economy be a hard fall or a soft one? I for once wish the exactly the opposite. I have invested in land in Florida and lost money. We are buying property in Spain, much better return of your money and rent is guaranteed as it remains a top destination for Britons and other Europeans.

This is a good article, recent and it talks about why London is the financial capital of the world. I have lived there and I know the city is full of life and absolutely posh and a beautiful place to work. The British way of doing business is thoughtful, they think of long term instead of "fast cash, get rich quick". The mentality in Europe seems to work better with the world and they have incredible tax laws that help foreign investors, much different from the US.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/08/06/100141310/

When you have a customer of that magnitude as a seller you do everything in your power to help the customer.

Quote of the week and thanks. I read about an ancient saying in Chinese:"In these troubled times, old friends help each other". May be I am misquoting the proverb,but the essence of it remains the same. Please do correct me if I am wrong.

Today, Pat Buchanan was a guest on Hardball with Chris Matthews a television show on MSNBC – and one of the facts that Pat Buchanan mentioned during the conversation it’s that the cumulative balance of trade deficits of the United States for the last 15 years has reached $ 5 trillion dollars.

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You said: “The capital of the world seeks the safety and stability of the U.S. because it is backed by the force of law subject to public transparency and scrutiny.”

Do you mean the type of public transparency and scrutiny as in the current sub-prime scandal or in the Enron, WorldCom, and many other similar cases that caused losses of trillions of dollars to investors?

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You mentioned that you are: “buying property in Spain, much better return of your money and rent is guaranteed as it remains a top destination for Britons and other Europeans.

I am finishing a proposal right now to present to a group of Arab friends in the Gulf counties of the Middle East for them to invest in Brazilian real estate.

By the way, I know someone who sold an ethanol refinery in Brazil not long ago to invest instead in real estate.

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I would love to buy a property in Brazil. I have an uncle, he works for Petrobras, and has a fantastic house in Buzios. 6/6bath bedroom, swimming pool, casa p/ caseiro in Ferradura Beach. I went there last year with my kids and my husband and I would love to get a house there. Problem is to get to Buzios you pass through some pretty rough places. Last year a tour bus was stop by thieves and they stolen everything from the passengers. They were British tourists heading towards Buzios. Rio has become a lawless town, my parents are lucky they live in Barra da Tijuca and are quite "safe" there. I cannot put my kids through this, 2 of them were born in the U.K. and the others here, when I see that the government put top priority on security of its citizens, then I will change my mind.In Spain, you don't have to worry, it is very safe and I have friends that live in Malaga and they have already offered to help out. My sister-in-law has finished her home in Florence, you can't compare buying property in Europe with Brazil. Unfortunately, we still have a long way to go.We bought a piece of land in Florida, near the beach and we have lost money. I won't sell it because I know that in a few years--according to my brother-in-law late 2009 the market should begin to correct itself and hopefully some normalcy will return. For next year the forecast seems grim and painful.

One more question? I don't know if you have seen my posts, but I am a scientist Oceanographer. Mainly what I studied is ocean and marine estuarine science. How do you think that we can build state of the art":Besides the 20 new nuclear power plants, Brazil should invest part of the money in a state-of-the-art nuclear waste reprocessing plant instead of having to find a place to store the spent nuclear fuel."

To decommission a nuclear power plant is very expensive, and two the reactor needs to be properly sealed and disposed. Any suggestions? I have a problem with that, since we all know about the half-life of an uranium depends on it isotope.Most widely available is uranium 234 and it takes about 244 thousands of years to decay and become a daughter isotope. Knowing how the Angra project went, I can assure you that we are heading towards disaster.

On this letter I describe how I feel and think about Brazil.

Two years ago I changed my mind and I realized that it would be better for Brazil to adopt the new Asian currency instead of the euro.

In December 2001 I wrote a letter to the president of the European Central Bank (See copy of the original letter below). One month later I received a letter from the European Central Bank (ECB) in response to my letter. In March 2002, I wrote an article which was published on a Brazilian newspaper were I quote my letter and the response of the ECB.

Since I sent the enclosed letter to the president of the European Central Bank in December 2001 the US dollar has declining steadily in value against the Euro, and gold has increased in value from $ 295 to around $ 740 today.

When I wrote that letter to the European Central Bank in December of 2001 many people were predicting that the Euro was going to fall further in relation to the US dollar.

When I published the content of my letter in a newspaper article in March 2002 I received many letters to the editor and emails saying that I was very negative, and that I did not know what I was talking about, and so on. I also wrote an article which was published in June 2002 - “The Euro, Now.” The information that follows I am quoting from that article:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=49981


Note: When I wrote this letter to the president of the European Central Bank the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro it was:
US$ 0.85 = $ 1.00 euro

Right now the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro it is:
US$ 1.41 = $ 1.00 euro

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December 12, 2001
Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg
President
European Central Bank

Dear Dr. Duisenberg:

In the last two years I have written various newspaper articles published here in the United States regarding Brazil and the euro. Enclosed is a copy of my last article of that series. I have been recommending that Brazil replace its current currency the Real for the currency of the European Monetary Union the euro.

In the coming years most countries of the world will have to make a drastic decision; they will have to decide if they will adopt as their new currency the euro, the US dollar or some other currency from Asia. I believe that Brazil should adopt the euro and also should integrate its economy with the European Union's economy.

Keep in mind that it will be just a matter of time for the European Central Bank to be forced to deal with that issue triggered by some major international monetary crisis.

Today, the Brazilian economy has an Achilles heel, which is its currency the real. On January 1, 2002, the international monetary game played in the last 30 years comes to an end. Starting in January the US dollar will not be the only game in town. I believe the euro will become a major competitor to the US dollar, and will be accepted around the world as a major currency. The euro will become an important part of the monetary reserves of most countries.

When the time comes for the European Monetary Union to make the decision to accept Brazil as one of its members, that decision will be very important not only to Brazil, but will have a major impact on the international monetary scene for decades to come. It will be for the benefit of the members of the European Monetary Union to offer Brazil membership in that monetary club.

Brazil has a young and vibrant population and can offer to the European Union a growing market with 170 million people. The adoption of the euro by Brazil would stabilize the Brazilian economy and would open the door to many new economic opportunities between Brazil and the members of the European Monetary Union. This new stable monetary environment would provide new opportunities for European investments in Brazil.

I want you to keep in mind when the European Monetary Union debates the merits of accepting Brazil for membership, that the country Brazil is one of the jewels of our planet. Brazil has a privileged geopolitical location on our globe. Brazil has an up- coming emerging market economy with abundant natural resources, including the magnificent Amazon jungle, and also a modern economy evolving and adapting very fast to accommodate the new technologies developed around the world.

The next time that Brazil decides to change its currency again, they will have only two alternatives to choose from this time around; either they adopt the euro or they adopt the US dollar. I believe that it would be a privilege for the European Monetary Union to have Brazil as a member of that club. Brazil and the members of the European Monetary Union will have much more to gain from that association than if Brazil adopts the US dollar. Please be prepared in the future to welcome and to offer Brazil membership to the European Monetary Union.

...The long-term US trade imbalances have created a large pool of US dollars in the hands of relatively few central banks around the world. These nations continue to run large trade surpluses with the United States, and they continue to increase the pool of US dollars held by their central banks.

Forbes Magazine's columnist Steve Hanke estimates that today 70 percent of US currency circulates outside the United States. The major holders of this currency are the euro countries, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Singapore.

Probably today, there is an oversupply of US dollars outside of the United States. Gold at US$ 295/oz might be undervalued when compared to the US dollar.

At US$ 295/oz gold provides about 15 percent of official world monetary liquidity. Central banks hold only one-third of the above ground gold supply available. Gold is the second largest component of international monetary reserves after the US dollar.

Gold and the euro will became increasingly important parts of the international monetary reserve system and their gains will be at the expense of the US dollar.

If any of these countries decides to move their monetary reserves from the US dollar into gold, the price of gold would increase versus the US dollar. If that happens in the near future we will have a major international monetary crisis in the world....

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Because of your name I assumed that you were American or British.

But if you know Buzios and Rio de Janeiro then you know what I am talking about.

I have traveled in Brazil all the way to Manaus and stopped on all major cities in the coast of Brazil. Brazil has a magnificent coastline some places are spectacular.

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You asked me: “if you have seen my posts, but I am a scientist Oceanographer.”

No I did not. I was not aware that you were a scientist.

I did read a lot about the subject of nuclear energy when I was writing my article that is why I mentioned these specific types of nuclear power plants – and I suggested that Brazil should invest part of the money in a state-of-the-art nuclear waste reprocessing plant instead of having to find a place to store the spent nuclear fuel.

Nuclear energy will make a major come back in the coming years around the globe and Brazil should move in that direction.

They should kill that project about building that dam in the north of Brazil. That project will be a major environment disaster.

Regarding the nuclear technology – if the project is done by a top notch engineering company and they implement the leading edge in state-of-the-art technology – and they don’t cut corners on the project – the result would be a reliable and environment friendly source of energy.

But if you have corrupt people in charge of the project and they start cutting corners then later on you have a major problem and a possible catastrophe in the future.

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Shelly reads right over the top and comes back with inaccurate assumptions. AES mentions that the USA is the largest capital market. She responds with a reference to London as financial capital of the world.

The two terms are not the same.

If we learn anything here is is that having a degree in sea life and a brother in law at Cambridge enables one to be overbearing, pedantic, and wrong in areas unrelated to one´s area of expertise.

I think you are just envy! Oceanography, pedantic friend, is a degree that far outreaches sea life. Go and find out more

Oceanography and sea life, the two terms aren't the same.

Capital Martket and London being world's financial district, is both the same thing. What is a capital market? "A capital market is simply any market where a government or a company (usually a corporation) can raise money (capital) to fund their operations and long term investment." Therefore, dear Ric, FTSE is an example of such capital market. If he means that the NYSE or NASDAQ, as the capital market of the world, it is wrong. More and more investors are going to London, not here. I thought you were better at text interpretation, you make assumptions. When I mentioned London, I meant the FTSE.

They should kill that project about building that dam in the north of Brazil. That project will be a major environment disaster.

Yes, I could not agree more with you on the dam being a environmental disaster. The flow of sediments and nutrients will be disrupted, therefore they will have to dredge the bottom of the river quite often. The Chinese are beginning to see this, mercury levels in some areas are quite high. When I studied nuclear energy, I did not see anything that resembles the kind of technology that you are mentioning. To decommission a power plant it takes around 10 years and disposal is a problem for first world countries, can you imagine anything like this done in Brazil? As an environmentalist, I cannot see nuclear energy being something environmentally friendly. For example, some older power plants in the US dispose the water back to the river without cooling it off. This is a major kill of all aquatic life. Do you remember why they closed Angra? This is my concern, nuclear energy is a serious matter and Brazil lacks responsibility and accountability. I think we should look at alternative energy and develop the incentive to create new ideas. I know quite a few engineers in Brazil, they are very keen but the lack of funds, example in research, proves the point. Just take a look at the airtraffic control system, in shambles and dangerous.

Yes, I am from Rio, but have a British husband and have lived in the U.K. prior to my arrival in the US.

Capital Martket and London being world's financial district, are both the same thing (I rather have our friend, AES teach me English than you )

"I have traveled in Brazil all the way to Manaus and stopped on all major cities in the coast of Brazil. Brazil has a magnificent coastline some places are spectacular."

Have you been to Buzion? Man, it is such a lovely place, but as I said to get there is a problem. Well, if you have $$$ Buzios has- I'm not sure, 2 heliports. Your Arab friends would like, it is extremely safe and the locals are always willing to help. Some of them can speak several languages due to the high number of foreigners. A guy selling some clothing on the beach could speak, Spanish, French, German and Italian. I was really impressed, he also spoke English was very clear and had an American accent. You should see they have some beautiful properties there for sale on the top of Ferradura.

Ricardo:

Gold reached $750, but that was no surprise, nor was the lowering of interest rates to the lowest in 40 years. Gold rises as a reflex to interest rates. There is no value to gold except as a conductor. Its value is purely psychological and arbitrary. And just as soon as technology is able to extract it from sea water its value will return to its cost of production plus competitive demand. The value of a thing is what you can sell it for or the cost of production. The cost of producting an ounce of gold is $180. You did not in your prognostications predict the U.S. stock market at 14,000. Nor did you predict that if you had invested in Bectel or Haliburton or oil or Boeing or Martin Murieta, or any of the military industrial stocks you would have tripled your monies. If you had invested in Brazilian currency or land or Bovespa you would have also increased the value of your portfolio significantly. Except for the inability to prosecute its governmental grifters, Brazil is without peer as an economic vunder kin.

As to sub prime less then 10% of all mortgages are sub prime and less then 2.85% are in foreclosure (down from 3.06% a year ago). There was no fraud in sub prime only fine print. The onus is on the buyer. The government protects from fraud not the individuals right to be a fool. The last person to buy is always 'left holding the bag.'

Have you ever heard of Dr. Walter Lussage, or seen Joe Champion´s book, Producing Precious Metals at Home?

Is The Land of Broken Dreams.

There was no fraud in sub prime only fine print. The onus is on the buyer.

You are wrong on this one. Do I need to give you an example of such fraud? And the default rate will grow by the end of this year, as far as my brother-in-law is concerned, the forecast is bad for 2009.

When my husband and I came to live in this country, we were quick to learn that financial terminology is a blurred line here. For example, a good faith estimate in England is a valued document to take a mortgage company to the court. Here, not so. Many people bought their homes on good faith estimates, with a promise of a low interested rate, then at signing the lenders changed the interest rate. I have one example of this, a co-worker had given ALL papework needed only to find out that she had to take on a sub-prime rate. If this is not fraud, then anything goes. I can bet my money on this one that the evidence will point to fraud. I trust my brother in 100% on this issue.

Fraud and sloppy lending practices are likely to be at the heart of recent news of rising defaults in the sub-prime mortgage lending sector and subsequent difficulties at banks that rushed into that market while the U.S. housing market was booming, said William Poole, the president of the St. Louis Fed, on Friday. "Some of this lending probably involved actual fraudulence where people misstated their income and qualifications to take out loans," Poole said in answer to a question after a speech. Poole said many of the sub-prime loans did not even require that borrowers document the income listed on their loan application with a pay stub. "Many companies made too many loans that were poorly documented and now those are coming home to roost as the mortgage interest rates went up," Poole said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1542620020070515

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/poole-fraud-subprime-loans-coming/story.aspx?guid={833F196B-1F06-4B32-9DDA-6532F4CD59A0}

This was an article written in 2005, things have gone from bad to worse in 2 years.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/27/markets/hedge_fund/

What does your brother-in-law think about the derivatives market, exchange traded? His opinion is so important to us.

'with a promise of a low interested rate, then at signing the lenders changed the interest rate'

There is no obligation to go ahead with the closing. That decision was foolish. If there was a breach of contract then there were other courses of action besides signing a document that had not been agreed upon. The closing is an intimidating psychological event, especially to people whose credit worthiness is at best tenuous. The responsibility of walking out of a closing because of misrepresentation is the responsibility of the buyer. There is no requirement to sign the new agreement. Often the people involved in sub prime mortgages could never have qualified for a mortgage and by consequence were beggers to this feast. They knowing they were unworthy signed the modified agreement by their own volition. Such treatment of people is considered predatory, but not necessarily illegal. If there was legal recourse then it should have been taken.

"Some of this lending probably involved actual fraudulence where people misstated their income and qualifications to take out loans,"

This proves that the fraud was commited by the borrower not the lender.

You are truly pathetic...

True, but how many really understand points, ARMs, title insurance and foreclosure procedures? Many that I see don´t understand them very well. How many use a lawyer?

So many homeowners are in over their heads and as a class have been dumbed down in the last few years.

"Many companies made too many loans that were poorly documented and now those are coming home to roost as the mortgage interest rates went up,"

I agree with you, people should not buy what they cannot afford. Once you put a deposit down, you cannot walk away. This lady has the capability of paying her mortgage, clearly this is one case of predatory lending. A good faith estimate is different here, not the same in the U.K. I see this is a two way street.

Certainly you can walk away. You just lose the deposit. People take out options all the time that they never redeem.

Certainly you can walk away. You just lose the deposit. People take out options all the time that they never redeem.

Do you like to loosing money? That is the most stupid opinion ever! Do I need to ask my bro? No, you will loose your deposit if you walk away from closing.

'Once you put a deposit down, you cannot walk away.'

If the lender is changing the terms of the loan at closing (as was your example of fraudulent practices)the lender is in breach of the contract and the deposit is returned. There is a legal liability incurred by the lender and the consequent damages ie the loss of a deposit made with the seller as a consequence of the lender reneging on a loan agreement.

When signing a sales contract it is wise to stipulate, 'predicated upon financing'. . .a 'good faith estimate'
is not a contract and has no value. Again the onus of responsibility is with the buyer and not the lender. And if the seller has to forfeit the deposit because of errors that were made in the purchase agreement then it should be considered tuition money on a course in finance, mortgage law, and contracts. It is better to forfeit a small deposit then take on a bad mortgage. Besides there was little or no initial monies involved in these financial ponzie schemes. A thousand dollars good faith money would often be enough.

You said the following to Shelly: “What does your brother-in-law think about the derivatives market, exchange traded? His opinion is so important to us.”

If you want to learn about derivatives then just read some of my postings at the Elite Trader forum.

Elite Trader is the #1 community for active traders of Stocks, Futures, Options, and Currencies.

This site has a number of forums were people discuss anything related to financial markets and economic matters. Right now the forum has about 83,000 active members from around the world and many of these members are active traders and investors.

In the economics forum there are many economic professors and students participating on the discussions.

A lot people read what I post on that forum, and here are some of my postings on that forum. By the way, my user name on that forum is South America.


Hedge Funds and the U.S. Financial Markets.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=61875


Central Banks and the US Dollar.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=81958


Refco and Financial Derivatives Market Meltdown.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=57218


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However, I think the lender who told you that the lock deposit would be lost if you exercised the right to rescind your refinance was blowing smoke. You will lose the deposit if you walk away before closing. But in the event you close and give notice of intent to rescind within the required ,3-day notice period the law says "...the creditor shall return any money or property that has been given to anyone in connection with the transaction..."

You can walk away, but if you don't have another company to back your transaction with the home builder you will loose any deposit given to the builder.

http://db.inman.com/inman/cont...=guttentag

forgot to add the link...

Thanks for the information, I will take a look at it!

Maybe because people are reading my article in parts instead of reading the entire 4-parts at the same time – some people are not even grasping one of the major points of my article, and I can tell it based on their comments. Some of Ch.c comments come to mind

Let me clarify some points for the people who could not grasp what I was trying to say on my article.

First of all, by the end of 2007 China will have about $ 1.2 trillion dollars in US dollar foreign exchange reserves, and China’s accumulation of US dollar has accelerate to a rate of approximately $ 300 to $ 400 billion dollars per year. If current trends continue China will accumulate its US dollar foreign exchange reserves by 2010 to the tune of $ 2 trillion dollars.

Basically China is waking up to this unsustainable international monetary situation, and China has started looking around the world for other alternative for their long-term investments.

That is where my plan can serve as a possible alternative for China’s diversification efforts into a promising economy of the future – in this case Brazil.

My plan gives China an excellent option to help them achieve their long-term investment goals.

But please don’t get me wrong the situation that we have had in the last 4 years it is a much better option for Brazil, if China can keep the same game going on for another 3 to 4 years.

I know that China will need to change their game plan for the coming years that is why I prepared the plan described on this 4-part series. But if China does not change its strategy and keeps the same game going on in the coming years, then most of my plan still must be followed by the Brazilian government, but with an important change – instead of the $ 200 billion dollars investment money coming from China, the same $ 200 billion dollars it will be earned in international trade that would end up in the balance sheet of the Brazilian Central Bank as foreign exchange reserves.

Here is some information for the people who do not understand what has been happening in the last 4 years with the balance sheet of the Brazilian government.

Demand for raw materials and commodities from China has been great for the last few years, and Brazilian producers had a great opportunity to raise prices over and over again and the US dollars were piling up in Brazil – and Brazil was able to pay most of its US dollar foreign debt to the IMF and the Club of Paris.

On top of that Brazil was able to accumulate by September of 2007 about $ 163 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves.

This Chinese game has been great for Brazil and if it continues like that for the next 3 or 4 years that would be even greater for Brazil.

In the meantime the exchange rate between the real and the US dollar was almost R$ 4 to US$ 1 when Lula took office about 4 years ago. Since then the US dollar has been declining consistently versus the real for the last 4 years and right now the exchange rate between the real and the US dollar is around R$ 1.8 to US$ 1.0

If China can keep the same game going on in the next 3 to 4 years that would generate a massive amount of foreign exchange reserves for Brazil; and Brazil would be able to finance the investments that I mentioned on my plan from the money earned from its international trading activities.

If the Chinese are so foolish to continue playing the same game in the coming years then all I can say that game is great from the Brazilian perspective.

The question is: If the Chinese keeps the same game going on then what the Chinese is going to do with $ 2 trillion dollars of US dollar foreign exchange reserves by 2010 and $ 3 trillion dollars by 2013, and so on…?

When this increasing pile of US dollars reaches a level and become a major problem for both countries?

.

Since you have experience with financial markets, do you think that we are heading towards another 1929 stock market crash? If so, for the "little people" like me, do you think the European markets will at least "suffer less"? It seems to me that the regulations in Europe-FTSE are better suited for investors, example you cannot be a hedge fund investors just because you decide to quit your day job. The million dollar question I guess will be "how low can it go"?

I said on the above posting:"When this increasing pile of US dollars reaches a level and become a major problem for both countries? "

Let me clarify one thing the two countries are: China and the United States.

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When I post a web address on this forum you can't click on that web link and go to that web page.

What do you have to do to the web address for the link to connect to the web page on this forum?

Usually I don't have this kind of problem on the other forums that I post any information.

Thanks,

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I think I understand what you are saying loud and clear. Last week a friend of mine went to China-can't say much about what he does as everyone knows the company in the US-let me just say that the company that he works for provides security for banking system around the globe, similar to Brinks. Anyway, he was very impressed-he is an American by the way, with the city that he visited-I will ask again, apparently is near Shanghai (?). He basically said that if you think Las Vegas is good, then you should visit this place-the Chinese Venice is 3 times bigger than here. Also, my sister in law used to live in Hong Kong (under the UK) and it is unbelievable modern. I guess when everyone else decides to wake up, it will be too late. China is a power machine and Mandarin schools in Sao Paulo are fully booked-English schools on the other hand have plenty of seats.

You said: “There is no value to gold except as a conductor. Its value is purely psychological and arbitrary.”

What you said above it is also true regarding the US dollar.

Anyway, I posted the following on Elite Trader Forum regarding the last Fed Funds
Rate cut. If you go to that forum you can read the entire discussion.

Ben Bernanke and the Fed Funds Rate.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=101994&perpage=6&pagenumber=3


September 20, 2007

SouthAmerica: I wonder what former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker is really thinking about the latest Fed rate cuts.

What happened to fighting inflation to protect the value of the US dollar?

What happened to fighting inflation to preserve the purchasing power inside the US economy?

The Bush administration and now the latest Federal Reserve action are destroying the value of the US dollar.

I wonder at which point the US dollar will reach the trigger point - the point of no return - the point in which a few Central Bankers in a panic mode and they start dumping their US dollar foreign currency reserves in an effort to beat the rest of the herd.

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Go to the following forum and read my of my postings regarding the next market crash – my screen name in that forum is South America.

If anything you will enjoy reading all that information. Just remember there are many postings in that particular thread regarding the subject of a market crash.

NYT - Paul Krugman - 1928 and the Market Crash

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=49920

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NYT - Paul Krugman - 1928 and the Market Crash

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=49920

South Korea is the most wired country on the planet. Some South Koreans can get up to 20 megabits of data per second - breakneck speed by today's standards. Americans are lucky if they get 4 Mbps.

While South Korea leads in the rollout of broadband, the United States - supposedly the world's technology leader - comes in no better than No. 13, according to experts. About 76% of households have broadband in South Korea. The figure is 30% in the United States.

Well let's take a look at the size of the countries. A little easier to "wire" a country that is the size of New York than one that is the size of Europe!

Also, in the U.S. when you have high speed internet you actually have high speed internet. When I'm in the U.S. I consistanly get 700-800 Kbs/sec when I download a file from a 1mg connection.

Do you want to know how they do it here in Brazil??? This marvel of modern technology they call Velox is a f**king joke! I have a 1 mg connection here and the BEST I get is 110Kbs/sec when downloading!!! When I call Telemar they say, "oh, well, that's because our norm is 10% of the velocity you purchased!!! I was like, "huh?" 10% of the velocity I purchased? Well that's a f**king 100K for christs sake, lmao. What a joke!!

Did you know that this entire country is wired INCORRECTLY?? I'm in the northeast of brazil, when I make a connection to my servers that are in North America do you know where my connection goes first?

To Minas Gerais!!!

I had my tech guys over a year ago trace my connection and this entire country is wired through Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais!! It doesn't matter where you are. You can be in Fortaleza and if you're connecting to someplace north of you, you're connection is first going to go south, then north! Kind of like a lot of the air traffic in this country! It not only doesn't make sense, but it's impractical and detrimental to the quality, funcitonality, and velocity of the connection! I spoke to the tech guys in Rio de Janeiro for Telemar about this over a year ago and they admitted everything to me....naturally after I told them that I had already traced my connection. They're still replacing copper wire here with fiber and will be for decades!

So, believe me when I say, I own internet sites, my servers are in the U.S., unless you get a direct link that will cost you 800 reais up into the THOUSANDS per month, the FASTEST velocity you're going to get in Brazil is around 120K!!! And you're going to pay 170 reais (90 dollars) per month for that! And naturally it only works around 70% of the time at best.

Also, in the U.S. when you have high speed internet you actually have high speed internet.

I can't complain on that one. But doesn't Japan has the fasted internet connection? In the end a size of the country matter, but also technology. Just take a look at cell phone service in the US compared to Europe. My dad has NET for internet connection, it is sooo slow...

Ricardo: Hit the Blue Globe icon: will appear. Place the cursor between the the middle brackets and copy the link. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...id=49920

http://www.merkfund.com/merk-p...09-21.html

http://www.merkfund.com/merk-p...02-07.html

Very interesting article. In a nutshell, if you spend more than you are receiving, eventually you will have a problem. This summarizes pretty well the forecast that I have heard from my brother-in-law, he doesn't see another alternative to the US econ. One thing to consider is that China has absolutely no respect for the environment. There is a direct correlation between good envi. policies and economic growth. Just take a look at the Dominican Republic-they may well become one of those countries that goes from developing to developed in the next 20 years. They are investing more on environmental protection and research. We have 3 scientists over there and 2 in Belize trying to get the local economy going again. I don't know if you guys read the NYTimes online, but this weekend there was a really good article on the North China Plain and the fact that it is becoming a desert. The aquifer is drying and in 30 years they will have no water. They are going to pump water from the south and are constructing desalinization plants to bring water to the northern area. Apparently, they are trying to develop the are-farms use much more water than cities, but on the other hand, air quality goes down. It is certainly something that the Chinese are ignoring and Brazil needs to see this and head towards the other direction. People tend to think that water as an infinite resource, only to find out that it is the opposite. Mexico and the US are having the same issues. We in Leesburg have a water restriction, Americans prefer to keep the grass looking green and cannot conserve.

Shelly wrote: “I don't know if you guys read the NYTimes online, but this weekend there was a really good article on the North China Plain and the fact that it is becoming a desert.”

If you had read my entire article then you would have learned about the water problem in China.

On October 3, 2007 I posted the following on the comments to part-1 of this series of articles.

The article has been ready to be published for the last 2 weeks and a number of people have been waiting for the article to be published for them to be able to read it – since it has been a delay in the publishing process for technical reasons - in the meantime you be able to read the entire article on my blog at:

Article by Ricardo C. Amaral

“The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil.”

http://chinadirectinvestmentinbrazil.blogspot.com/


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Here are the web links to the web pages that I have mentioned on part 1 and 2 of this series of articles and you also can find the web link to some of my other articles that I have not mentioned to the readers of this particular article.

Columnist: Ricardo C. Amaral

http://brazzilnews.blogspot.com/


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A lot people read what I post on that forum, and here are some of my postings on that forum. By the way, my user name on that forum is South America.


Hedge Funds and the U.S. Financial Markets.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...adid=61875


Central Banks and the US Dollar.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...adid=81958


Refco and Financial Derivatives Market Meltdown.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...adid=57218


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You just described on your posting the state of slow-speed broadband infrastructure in Brazil.

You just helped me to make my case that Brazil needs to invest at least US$ 20 billion in leading edge and state-of-the-art high-speed broadband infrastructure such as in Japan and in South Korea.

I rest my case.

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Thank you for the info about connecting the web page.

Regarding the two articles that you mentioned above.

Please read my posting on the following web site. On that posting I also include a copy of an interesting article by C R Sridhar - “The End of Dollar Hegemony”


Central Banks and the US Dollar.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...enumber=36


September 30, 2007

SouthAmerica: Today the question is: when the US dollar meltdown is going to start?


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Reply to Bo
written by Ricardo Amaral, 2007-10-10 15:38:13
You just described on your posting the state of slow-speed broadband infrastructure in Brazil.

You just helped me to make my case that Brazil needs to invest at least US$ 20 billion in leading edge and state-of-the-art high-speed broadband infrastructure such as in Japan and in South Korea.

I rest my case.

Well, problems need a helluva lot more than just money thrown at them to get fixed. In many cases it's just common sense. And in my experience in brazil that can be as rare as the golden-lion tamarin!!!

I read your links. I agree with your conclusions. Some of us have believed predictions of the death of the dollar for many years and acted accordingly.

Every large upheaval spawns opportunities for investment, often with returns that are huge and develop rapidly.

Begin a program to get away from characters and transition to a western style alphabet. Similar to but not the same as Korean.

Since my article is about Brazil and China – Here is some information that I posted on the Elite Trader economics forum that is relevant to my current article.

"The China Price" - The best business article I have seen in years.

Replies = 187
Views = 25,142

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...adid=50167


I hope you guys will enjoy it, since this is an excellent picture of China.

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I am also proud of my family background, I am glad you know a lot about your family. My family is quite interesting, I guess we could all say that about ourselves, but we have always had-luckily- marriages with foreigners. I have a Swiss uncle, a German brother in law, an Italian (future) bother-in-law (I have 2). Obviously my marriage creates another dimension for my children, now we have added the English into our gene pool. My mother's family has direct lineage to Estacio de Sa and Barao da Taquara. The monastery in Rio Mosteiro de Sao Bento, also had funding colaborations from our ancestors. We have history backing to the 1500's and I find it all quite fascinating. My grandma can sit down, at 92 years of age and tell me a story about her family. I actually recorded the conversation to keep for my kids as a memento. I love looking through her album and see that it is all there, documented for the next generation. Just like you said, if it wasn't for them, I wouldn't be here. My dad's family on the other hand is Dutch, and arrived in Brazil after WWII. It is always good to go to family reunions and we see the mix of cultures. My mum's ancestors used to own coffee plantation in Rio and latter opened a port in the northeast of Brazil. So when I say I am a proud Carioca, I mean it 100%. Even tough my city has lots of issues, I still have a lot of love for the city.

I meant to type -I have 2 sisters.

Since my book about Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva was published in 2000 and subsequent articles about my family were published - some readers asked for further information about my family that I provided them over the years. I have a lot of very interesting ancestors in my family tree. Here is some information about my family that I provided for some of these people. I have to post it in 3 parts because it seems to me that there is a limit of words that you can post in each comment.


October 20, 2006

SouthAmerica: By the way, do you know what I mean by ancestor?

Ancestors are the people who came before you on your family tree. That is why there is a bloodline connection with these people who lived on the past.

Let me try to clarify this connection with the past for you – For example Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Patriarch of Brazilian Independence) He fought very bravely during a number of years in Portugal under the command of the Duke of Wellington and they defeated the French armies under the command of 3 different Generals on tree different French invasions of Portugal during that time.

They have all documented and it is on the record about all these battles and they have documented how close Jose Bonifacio came from getting killed in battle – he earned many honors as a great warrior. He was always in the frontlines and was one of the first ones to charge against the enemy and he was an inspiration to his battalion.

If Jose Bonifacio had died on one of these battles during that time as a direct descendant from him I would not be here today including my sisters, my father, my father’s mother and so on…None of us would have been born since we are all descendants of the second daughter of Jose Bonifacio.

Someone after reading one of my articles asked me a question about how many noble people I had as my ancestors. After a quick compilation from books about our family and information on other historic sources I was able to come up with a short list of people whom I listed below. Probably there are many more people that I left out and I have not included in the list.


Going back in my family tree I had many important ancestors, for example:

I am 4th generation from Senator Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva
(He was the grandson of The Patriarch of independence)

I am 5th generation from Martim Francisco Ribeiro de Andrada
(He wrote the document declaring the independence of Brazil)

I am 6th generation from Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (Patriarca da Independencia) (He is responsible for the independence of Brazil from Portugal)

I am 4th generation from Senator Francisco Souza Queiroz - Barão de Souza Queiroz

I am 5th generation from Brigadier Luiz Antonio de Souza - Barão de Souza Queiroz

I am 5th generation from Senator Nicolau Campos Vergueiro (Regent of the Empire).

I am 9th generation from a younger brother of Dom João lV (Bragança Dynasty)

I am 12th generation from Dom João III (Aviz Dynasty)

I am 10th generation from the 7th Duke of Bragança

I am 11th generation from the 6th Duke of Bragança

I am 12th generation from the 5th Duke of Bragança

I am 13th generation from the 4th Duke of Bragança

I am 14th generation from the 3rd Duke of Bragança

I am 15th generation from the 2nd Duke of Bragança

I am 16th generation from the 1st Duke of Bragança
(The 1st Duke of Braganca was a son of Dom Joao I )

I am 17th generation from Dom João I and his Queen Philippa of Lancaster
(Portuguese King and his English Queen)

I am 18th generation from John the Gaunt (Lancaster Dynasty) father of Queen Philippa. (He is the father of Queen Philippa of Lancaster)


Royal House:

Dom João I and Dom João III were both kings of Portugal from the Aviz Dynasty.

John the Gaunt was king of England from the Lancaster Dynasty.

The two Emperors of Brazil also were descendants of the 7th Duke of Bragança, since the 8th Duke of Bragança became Dom João IV king of Portugal.


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Here are some more facts about my ancestors and Family History.

The Souza Queiroz family branch also has documented that the Senator Francisco Souza Queiroz - Barão de Souza Queiroz is a direct descendant of Alfonso VI – King of Spain and his wife Isabel of Seville.

In 2005 some of my cousins got in contact with me because our family is in the process of writing various books documenting the history of our family and the impact that they had in Brazilian history.

I just received a book published about our family at the end of last year. One of my cousins who is senior columnist for the “O Estado de Sao Paulo” (The newspaper in Brazil equivalent to The New York Times in the US), he told me that there are right now six historians in Brazil doing research and writing books about our family and on the genealogic tree of the Barao de Souza Queiroz (one of my great-great grandfathers).

The historians found some interesting information regarding the ancestors of the Baron de Souza Queiroz and they included various kings of Spain. They were able to trace his ancestors all the way to Alfonso VI – King of Spain around 1095. The interesting information about that particular ancestor is that he married the Muslim Princess Zaida (b. 1071- d.1103) – the daughter of Muhammad III (Abu-l-Kasim) Al-Mutamid, King of Seville. Muhammad III born in 1040, in Seville, Spain, and after the Spanish drove him out of Spain he became the Emir of Morocco and he died in 1095, in Aghmat, Morocco at age 55.

When Muslim Princess Zaida married Alfonso VI – King of Spain, she was baptized Catholic and they changed her name to Isabel of Seville, and in 1092 she had a son who later became king of Spain.

I find interesting that the historians in Brazil were able to trace de ancestors of my great-great-grandfather – the Baron of Souza Queiroz all the way to the year 1095.


***


Note: Rodrigo Díaz de Vivar (Vivar c.1040 – Valencia, 10 July 1099), known as “El Cid” Campeador, was a Castilian nobleman, then military and political leader who conquered and governed the city of Valencia. Rodrigo Díaz was educated in the royal court of the Castile and became the alférez, or chief general, of “Alfonso VI,” fighting against the Moors in the early Reconquista.


***


The Baron of Souza Queiroz had eleven children and my great-grandfather was the Baron’s youngest child.

My great-grandfather Carlos de Souza Queiroz, married Maria Flora de Andrada e Silva.
Maria Flora was a daughter of Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Young).


***


As you can see my family tree includes many important people in Brazilian, Portuguese, Spanish, and English history. I also know that a branch of my family is also descendent of the Spanish Hapsburg Dynasty as documented by the historians in Brazil.

All the above ancestry is from my father’s side of the family. On my mother’s side of the family we also had senators and other important people from Brazilian history.



**************************


History of Portugal

RULERS OF PORTUGAL

YEAR

Alfonso VI of Castile (1095 - 112


Burgundy dynasty

* Alfonso I (1128 - 1185), from 1139 king
* Sancho I (1185 - 1211)
* Alfonso II (1211 - 1223)
* Sancho II (1223 - 124
* Alfonso III (1248 - 1279)
* Diniz (1279 - 1325)
* Alfonso IV (1325 - 1357)
* Pedro I (1357 - 1367)
* Fernando I (1367 - 1383)
regent (1383 - 1385)


Aviz dynasty

* Joao I (1385 - 1433)
* Duarte (1433 - 143
* Alfonso V (1438 - 1481)
* Joao II (1481 - 1495)
* Manoel I (1495 - 1521)
* Joao III (1521 - 1557)
* Sebastiao (1557 - 157
* Henrique I (1578 - 1580)


Habsburg dynasty - personal union with Spain

* Felipe II (1580 - 159
* Felipe III (1598 - 1621)
* Felipe IV (1621 - 1640)


Braganca dynasty

* Joao IV (1640 - 1656)
* Alfonso VI (1656 - 1683)
* Pedro II (1683 - 1706)
* Joao V (1706 - 1750)
* José I Manoel (1750 - 1777)
* Pedro III (1777 - 1786)
* Maria I (1777 - 1816)
* Joao VI (1816 - 1826)
* Pedro IV (1826)
* Maria II (1826 - 182
* Miguel I (1828 - 1833)
* Maria II (1833 - 1853)


Braganca - Coburg dynasty

* Ferdinando (1837 - 1853)
* Pedro V (1853 - 1861)
* Luiz I (1861 - 1889)
* Carlos I (1889 - 190
* Manoel II (1908 - 1910)

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June 12, 2007

SouthAmerica: Last week I met my cousin in New York – she just came for a very short visit, and she stayed only a week in New York.

They have a very large farm close to Sao Paulo and they are specialized on sugar cane production. The farm has been in the family since the mid 1800’s going from generation to generation.

It is a very large farm and they used to own an ethanol refinery that still is located in the middle of the farm, but her father sold the refinery to a French group 3 or 4 years ago. But they still own the farm and have a long-term contract with the refinery to deliver their sugar cane annual production.

I did not ask why they sold the ethanol refinery, but I know they also are involved in real estate development.

My great-great grandfather gave a huge farm for each of his 13 children, and the above farm still belong to members of our family.

My cousin gave to me a copy of a Family Album of the “Souza Queiroz Family” that is the history of our family and was published in 2007.

The book has a history of all the farms and also a picture of a lot of members of our family.

One of our cousins is very well known, because his bank has been doing an outstanding job in Brazil for many years. His name is Olavo Egydio Setubal and he is the Chairman of Banco Itau, in Brazil.

The book has a nice picture of Paulo Egydio Setubal (84) and his entire family; his sons and daughters, and subsequent generations. His picture is on pg 73 of the book.

Paulo Egydio Setubal and I - we are both great-great grandsons of the Barao of Souza Queiroz.

There are various pictures of all the members of my immediate family on page 145 of the book. You can see a copy of the book at:

ÁLBUM DA FAMÍLIA SOUZA QUEIRÓZ
Luiz Roberto de Souza Queiroz
e
Carlos Eduardo Uchôa Fagundes Junior


http://www.jbcultura.com.br/


The above is the Souza Queiroz side of my family. My great-grandfather Carlos de Souza Queiroz (He was the youngest of the 13 children of the Barao of Souza Queiroz)

He was married with Maria Flora de Andrada e Silva (she was my great-grandmother).

Maria Flora was a granddaughter of Matim Francisco (who is the equivalent to Thomas Jefferson in US history) and a great-granddaughter of Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Patriarch of Brazilian independence).


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I mentioned above that Paulo Egydio Setubal and I - we are both great-great grandsons of the Barao of Souza Queiroz – even though I am a lot younger than my cousin Paulo Egydio Setubal.

The Barao of Souza Queiroz had 13 children in total - and Paulo Egydio Setubal’s great-grandfather was the oldest son of the Barao – my great-grandfather was the youngest child of the Barao and he was 21 years younger than his oldest brother.

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This particular article gives a lot of information about some of my ancestors.

January 2003 - “The Brazilian Ruling Class”

http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/2149/27/


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written by Ricardo Amaral, 2007-10-11 03:53:59


Going back in my family tree I had many important ancestors, for example:

I am 4th generation from Senator Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva
(He was the grandson of The Patriarch of independence)

I am 5th generation from Martim Francisco Ribeiro de Andrada
(He wrote the document declaring the independence of Brazil)

I am 6th generation from Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (Patriarca da Independencia) (He is responsible for the independence of Brazil from Portugal)

I am 4th generation from Senator Francisco Souza Queiroz - Barão de Souza Queiroz

I am 5th generation from Brigadier Luiz Antonio de Souza - Barão de Souza Queiroz

I am 5th generation from Senator Nicolau Campos Vergueiro (Regent of the Empire).

I am 9th generation from a younger brother of Dom João lV (Bragança Dynasty)

I am 12th generation from Dom João III (Aviz Dynasty)

I am 10th generation from the 7th Duke of Bragança

I am 11th generation from the 6th Duke of Bragança

I am 12th generation from the 5th Duke of Bragança

I am 13th generation from the 4th Duke of Bragança

I am 14th generation from the 3rd Duke of Bragança

I am 15th generation from the 2nd Duke of Bragança

I am 16th generation from the 1st Duke of Bragança
(The 1st Duke of Braganca was a son of Dom Joao I )

I am 17th generation from Dom João I and his Queen Philippa of Lancaster
(Portuguese King and his English Queen)

Where's the Lula link?

I am aware of the Spanish noble lineages. Oceanography is my second degree, but my first one was in Spanish. I am well aware of Zaida, El cid, etc-Since you have to read early Spanish literature form las jarchas, cantares, etc. then you would move on to X,XI,XII,XII century and so forth. El Cid did not receive the "campeador" title even though, some historians and ecclesiastical figures think that he should. El Cid is a fantastic opportunity to look into the "costumbrismos" of Spain, "los juglares" were much like the "newscast" in the country. They would move from "pueblo to pueblo", generally singing the conquest of El Cid against the Moros. Anyone interested in literature should read El Cid, it gives an insight on the history of Spain and later on the history of Portugal. It is funny to see the history of Alfonso, Urraca and Sancho II (El Cid has always adamantly accused the king of killing his own brother, but he didn't have concrete proof). Urraca seduced El Cid, while Alfonso "payed or dressed himself" as one of Sancho's own army man. I do love history, one cannot separate literature from it. Anyway, we may even find that your family maybe be indirectly

D0 know if anyone in your family was related to Estacio de Sa and Barao da Taquara?. In those days, marriage was done not for the sake of love, but for the chance of social prestige and also to keep the capital flowing within families of equal lineage. I am wondering if I would see a branch of your family somewhat include in the Sa's family tree.

Only 2 years ago I found out from my cousin who is a historian about our ancestors the muslim Princess Zaida who married Alfonso VI – King of Spain then she was baptized Catholic and they changed her name to Isabel of Seville.

I had no idea that I had Moslem ancestors until my cousin told me – even though it is an ancestor from 900 years ago.

There are many books about the Souza Queiroz family and they send me various of the books and we have a ton of famous relatives listed on the book including various Barons, president of states, Governors, Senators and so on…

Some day in the near future I am going to write an article mentioning many of these people because they where the founders of various cities in the State of Sao Paulo,

But from all of my famous ancestors there’s one that stands out, he is my favorite and the one that I am most proud of – Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Patriarch of Brazilian Independence.)

Jose Bonifacio could have accumulated immense wealth when he was running all kinds of important positions in the Portuguese government between 1801 and 1819 when he returned to Brazil. But he did not because he was not interested in wealth he was an idealist and did a lot of things because he thought it was his duty as a good citizen.

When Jose Bonifacio organized the revolution to separate Brazil from Portugal D. Pedro was ready to go back to Portugal and he asked Jose Bonifacio to become the new emperor of Brazil. (D.Pedro was aware of that Jose Bonifacio was a descendant of the 7th Duke of Braganca and also of D, Joao III - Aviz Dynasty)

Jose Bonifacio declined the offer because he thought he was too old at age 57 to become the new emperor of Brazil. That was when Jose Bonifacio convinced D. Pedro to stay in Brazil and become emperor himself.

When Jose Bonifacio became Prime Minister D. Pedro offered him any title he wanted of wealth for that matter – and Jose Bonifacio turned him down because he was not interested on either offer.

D. Pedro asked Jose Bonifacio again for him to become the new emperor of Brazil right before D. Pedro became D. Pedro I – and D. Pedro asked Jose Bonifacio for the last time for him to become the emperor of Brazil when D. Pedro was ready to abdicate to return to Portugal.

Jose Bonifacio turned down the offer to become emperor of Brazil for the third time – then D. Pedro forced Jose Bonifacio to become the tutor of D. Pedro II.

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Here is where Jose Bonifacio got his training and learned first hand about Constitutions, and form of government. By the way, this is my favorite area of world history – the French Revolution.

José Bonifácio, the architect of Brazilian independence, is known as "The Patriarch of Brazilian Independence". José Bonifácio was the source who gave the orientation, the form, the doctrine, the guidance, the intellect, and strategy, the combination of which resulted in the liberty and unity of the new Brazilian nation. Without José Bonifácio the country Brazil in its current form would not exist today.

The greatest French influence on Brazilian culture came as a result of the French Revolution. José Bonifácio de Andrada e Silva was studying in Paris at the Royal School of Mines in the years 1790 - 1792. He was studying under many world famous scientists of the time, including Vauquelin, Antonio Lourenço Jussie, Jean-Antoine Chaptal, Antoine François Fourcroy and Antoine Laurent Lavoisier.

José Bonifácio got to know Lavoisier well because both of them were interested in geology. He also had a personal friendship with Vauquelin, Fourcroy and Chaptal and through them he met their good friend Maximilien Robespierre.

These men had one thing in common: they were members of one of the most influential political clubs of the French Revolution – the Club Breton ; later their members become known as the Jacobins. The Jacobin Club counted among its early members Mirabeau, Abbé Sieyès, Barnave, Pétion, the Duc d'Aiguillon and Robespierre. José Bonifácio had direct exposure during this period to the best intellectual minds of that time who were having a major impact on the events of the French Revolution.

He traveled a lot around Europe during 1793 - 1800, but his favorite place was Paris and he stopped in Paris every time he had the chance. This decade (1790 -1800) is the period that had the major influence on the formation of his intellectual, cultural, scientific, and political thoughts that helped him in the fulfillment of his destiny as a great statesman.

In 1823, the Andrada brothers (José Bonifácio, Martim Francisco and Antônio Carlos), with their leadership, had a major impact on the Constituent Assembly. They guided the proceedings of the process of framing the first Brazilian Constitution. This Constitution was effective December 13, 1823. They used as a model the French Constitution of 1816 which is also referred to as the "Lamartine Constitution".

The Brazilian legal and judicial system is based on Roman law and the Napoleonic Code.

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You asked me: "D0 you know if anyone in your family was related to Estacio de Sa and Barao da Taquara?."

Sorry, but I don't know the answer to your question..

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Recourse to genealogy is the refuge of those who are fundamentally insecure.

Question: are there any actual, trained economists who post to this site (other than myself)?

Many of the arguments above are specious and do not address the subltle interactions between economies.

"It's all about the exchange rates." - anon

I am certainly no trained economist. But I would like to make an observation.

The situation in Brazil is very fluid and through some recent posts I have come to realize that Brazilian who do not reside here may not have an accurate picture of the Brazil of October 2007. Especially since the country is so varied and large. No matter what their background and who their Brazilian contacts are.

The enclosed article that I wrote in July 2000 gives you in a nutshell the root of the problems regarding Brazil.


July 2000 – “Overpopulated”

http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/6963/73/

It is easier to blame everything in sight but the obvious and the fundamental reason that is resulting on all this mess..

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I sent this rather interesting link to a friend in Brazil (without any statement about how it might apply to any particular country):

http://reason.com/news/show/122854.html

He wrote back:

"Painfully true"... "But don't worry about the pain. We Brazilians are resilient."

If someone knows others having some money in their pockets, it is understandable this persons will find some reasons to get the money out of their pocket.

The logic which Ricardo used is a shame! It sounds like this. If the Chinese is fooled by the American, what is wrong if the Chinese is fooled by the Brazilian again?

Ricardo warns the Chinese not having enough food because of shortage of water, and tells the Chinese to lend Brazil money in exchange of food because Brazil had too much food. Does he have some common sense? On global warming, countries near the equator are going into big trouble on agriculture. Brazil is one of them. Brazil is worrying whether it has enough food. Here are the links.

http://www.wharton.universia.n...ge=english
http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-5544-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html
http://news.mongabay.com/2006/...nside.html

Ricardo is writing an empty check to the Chinese and is fooling the Chinese.

Global warming to 'change face of Brazilian farming'

Catarina Chagas

27 August 2008 | EN | ES


Flickr/fulviobpm

[RIO DE JANEIRO] Brazil's agriculture could be severely affected by climate change, with soya hardest hit by rising temperatures, report Brazilian scientists.

They based their projections on climate models developed by the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

The researchers considered two possible scenarios for the future: an optimistic one, with a 1.4–3.8 degrees Celsius temperature rise by 2100, and a pessimistic one, with a rise from 2–5.4 degrees Celsius.

They modelled the impact of such temperatures on agricultural land and their effect on Brazil's nine most important crops — cotton, rice, coffee, sugar cane, beans, sunflower, cassava, maize and soya.

Under the most optimistic scenario, by 2020, six of Brazil's food crops — rice, coffee, beans, cassava, maize and soya — could have dropped in value by a total of 6.7 billion Brazilian reals (US$4 billion).

The rise in temperature will increase the loss of water through evaporation from soil and plant transpiration, reducing crop-growing areas particularly in northeast Brazil.

Soya will be the most threatened, with land suitable for soya cultivation predicted to drop by about 20 per cent by 2020 and 40 per cent by 2070, even under the optimistic scenario.

But sugar cane cultivation could double in a few decades because of the crops' ability to adapt to higher temperatures and increases in carbon dioxide.

"Sugar cane plantations will benefit with future scenarios, increasing ethanol production. However, essential crops for the internal market and population nutrition will suffer, bringing a high social cost," Hilton Silveira Pinto, one of the report's authors and a senior researcher at the State University of Campinas (Unicamp), told SciDev.Net.

He adds that the most pessimistic scenario will only be realised if there are no efforts to mitigate climate change and minimise the impact of rising temperatures by modifying production techniques.

Suggestions to minimise impacts include better use of soil by alternating grazing and planting land, encouraging the production of crop varieties adapted to drought and genetic improvement of plants.

The report was released this month (11 August) by the Unicamp, the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, and the Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies.

The researchers will now analyse the impact of global warming on other crops and livestock, and social impacts from the change in agriculture. A new report will be released in 2009.

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November 06, 2009

Joao da Silva: I am aware of it and Mr.Amaral has mentioned a hundred times about the necessity of building a high speed back bone (wireless or optical fiber) to integrate the whole country with tax payers money.It is no doubt a good idea. I am not sure what kind of "private partnership" the government has in mind. If it means that the tax payers pay for the backbone and the "private partners" are large corporations who would buy the network in a few years time (thus privatizing it), my answer is a loud NO. The Brasilians had enough of FHC´s economic "model".


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Ricardo: Let me clarify one important point regarding my proposal for the economic development plan of Brazil - one of the major items on my list of priorities regarding the infrastructure: High-speed broadband optical fiber infrastructure

I said on my proposal:

“High-speed broadband optical fiber infrastructure

The federal government in Brazil, in partnership with state and local governments, needs to create and promote the universal availability of high-speed broadband optical fiber infrastructure throughout the country, connecting the major communities in Brazil with the rest of the world. Today universal access to broadband is in the interest of the majority of the population in Brazil, and it is becoming almost a requirement for a country to be connected with a state-of-the-art high-speed broadband optical fiber infrastructure to be competitive in the new global economy.

The investment in high-speed broadband optical fiber infrastructure (optical fiber made of glass) should be viewed in the same way governments view federal investments in basic infrastructures in a country, such as the highway system, water system, airport system, bridges and tunnels and so on…”


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First, most of the high-speed broadband infrastructure should be of optical fiber made of glass, and complemented with wireless access.

The Brazilian government is the owner of the infrastructure and guarantees the continued upgrade of the entire system to keep up with the leading edge in communications technology - high-speed broadband optical fiber infrastructure.

The high-speed broadband optical fiber infrastructure would never be privatized in the future, because only under the government’s management such a system can be upgraded on a regular basis to keep up with innovation and the leading edge of new technologies.

A private company when they make these very large investments they have to recover the money invested on the following years and they can’t afford to keep upgrading the system on a regular basis. That’s why the high-speed broadband infrastructure system in the United States is falling behind other countries where the government provides the foundations of high-speed broadband infrastructure system and its continues upgrading to the leading edge of technology.

The private sector can concentrate in competition to create all kinds of new services and innovations and provide the best service possible to their customers at the lowest price.

There are many beneficial results from such arrangement; the educational system can leapfrog into the future and it can be a major tool in helping the creation of the new human capital of the future, people can stay where they are inside of Brazil and still be connected to the world, and all kinds of companies anywhere in Brazil would be able to be connected to their markets and be part of the loop. In the coming years companies in many countries won’t be able to operate if they are not connected to the state-of-the-art global loop.


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Optical fiber
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_fiber


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Ricardo: I just noticed that Tom Lloyds posted more information on this thread.

He does not even understand the massive problem that China is going through regarding China’s freshwater scarcity.

The World Bank published in January 2009 a major report addressing China’s water scarcity – it is a very long report, and here is an example of what the report says about China’s massive water problems.


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“Addressing China's water scarcity”
The World Bank
January 1st, 2009

http://www-wds.worldbank.org/e...0114011126

…For years, water shortages, water pollution, and flooding have constrained growth and affected public health and welfare in many parts of China. Northern China is already a water-scarce region, and China as a whole will soon join the group of water-stressed countries. The combined impact of the widening gap between water demand and limited supplies and the deteriorating water quality caused by widespread pollution suggests that a severe water scarcity crisis is emerging.

…CHINA'S EMERGING WATER CRISIS

China's water resources are scarce and unevenly distributed. China's renewable water resources amount to about 2,841 km3/year, the sixth largest in the world. Per capita availability, however--estimated at 2,156 m3/year in 2007--is only one-fourth of the world average of 8,549 m3/year and among the lowest for a major country. While China as a whole is facing serious water stress, its problems are made more severe by the fact that its water resources are unevenly distributed, both spatially and temporally.

…Water productivity in agriculture, which accounted for 65 percent of total water withdrawals, is the lowest of all sectors, due to extensive waste in irrigation systems, and sub-optimal allocation among crops and between different parts of the same river basin. Only about 45 percent of water withdrawals for agriculture are actually used by farmers on their crops. In industry, which accounts for 24 percent of total water withdrawals, the water recycling level is 40 percent on average compared to 75 - 85 percent in developed countries.


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