Brazzil

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"That's all folks"

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Ricardo,

If you are truly interested to learn more about the China economic uprising, I suggest you contact Tony Cheng of Al-Jazeera. As a matter of fact, Al-Jazeera does it's network live in Brazil and I normally watch it 24hours a day via satellite transmission. You see Ricardo, just contact him and find out more about China in a new perspective. You will be surprised with his explanation about the new China. The last time, when my friend was in China making a movie for a local televison production in Malaysia, the entire crew production were being raided by the General Military Officers and they need to contact the embassy for help. Later they managed to get back on track and quickly returns home without any confrontation.

But the Chinese would have a major question regarding how Brazil will be able to deliver year after year, on a consistent basis, and be a reliable source of food supply to China.

Yeah, they would. Seeing Brazil doesn't feed their own 185 million population. What about 2 billion screaming Chinese?

Was interesting Ricardo, but man am I glad this series is over.

That about sums it up. The interest of China is not Brazil's interest. Once China's 2 billion's existence becomes dependent upon Brazil's 175 million the interest of China will not be Brazil's. There will no longer be a free Brazil.

Chinese economic development has been tranformative for Brasil. When China started buying multi-billion-dollar amounts of soybeans, iron ore and other commodities,
the terms of trade between Brasil and the developed world changed in Brasil's favor. But, the last thing that Brasil needs is to offer itself up as China's bitch. What Brasil
really needs is as close an approximation as possible of the golden age of free trade in commodities that existed in the period 1840 - 1860 (see p.278 of the Greenspan book).
Just as energy independence was borne out of Brasil's comparative advantage in biofuel feedstuff production, general economic development and the attainment of
relative affluance would be borne out ofBrasil's current comparative advantage in agricultural, mineral and water resources. The Brasilian people don't need anyone to tell them how to do anything, they just need a fair price for their commodity exports and the rest will follow. The answer is not more government jerry-rigging of trade
relationships. THe answer is for government to get out of the way so that people around the world have the right to pay up for what Brasil has to offer at a fair price in a free market.

"That's all folks"

First of all let me congratulate you for the excellent article.Yours is one of the three finest articles I have read in this On line English newspaper. The other 2 were "The Brazilian Jihad" and "Caipirinha with Curry". The Brazilian Jihad was written by an American Mathematician living in Rio and drew no comments at all, though I think it is a must for all the Brasilians and the ex-pat foreigners living here to understand the historic role played by our armed forces in building our nation.I am not sure about the nationality of the author of "Caipirinha with Curry" which talked about the "Growing relationship between Brasil and India was worrying Washington". All good with sensational titles, but neither of the two drew as many comments as yours and that is because of not only the title of your article, but also due to your active and patient participation in the forum. For this also you deserve my kudos.

In my opinion, your article comes out with a long term growth strategy for Brasil and it is a pity that there were not too many Brasilians who participated in the forum.You raised so many issues that have to be dealt with and in my opinion, the commentators contributed too. It is a good plan with suggestions made by them incorporated in it and presented to the Government. After all you have access to important people in the Government and check their reaction.

As for the Chinese government investing $200 Billions, please do go through my comments in the first part of your article and you will understand why they "Wouldnt". Currently, the press is projecting the image that "all is blau" in our country. But the reality is far different and many of the commentators including your good self have raised concerns. To sum them all, Brasil is like a Rudderless ship with the middle class being made into biggest clowns. Unless we put our acts together, NO Foreign government is going to invest $200 Bi. We can generate enough cash to finance the projects you mentined in your article,but our funds are being misused.

Anyway, it was nice to read your article and the comments of Brasilian ex-pats like you and Shelly to feel that there are still some right thinking Brasilians and you still care about the country where you were born.

As others have pointed out in the comments about the other three windy articles, this article is full of absurdities. For one thing, every idiot that can read or watch TV knows that China escaped poverty by implementing free market policies. For another, the US ethanol program is a good example of what is bad about the goverment INTERFERING in the free-market process. As for the Brazil feeding all those Chinese who will migrate to Chinese cities, one can only dream what would happen under Amaral's Great People China-Brazil Pact of Eternal Smiling Friendship when you take into account the following: Go downtown in a city like Campinas in São Paulo on a Sunday afternoon you will see that all of the businesses that are open are run by Chinese people - they have already migrated and are making the Brazilian business environment more competitive as we speak. In addition, the economic policy of privately-owned but government-directed industrial production has a very unattractive name, and the people who follow it tend to love it a man in uniform runnign things, especially if he has little black mustache.
But Brazzil.com is an excellent web site!

you said: "this article is full of absurdities."

But you did not list what these absurdities are.

Let me guess:

Brazil has no water.

Maybe - ethanol maid of corn is a better choice.

The Chinese don't like of samba or carnaval.

The Chinese would never invest in Brazil because Brazil is too far from China.

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Thank you for the compliments regarding my article, and I also enjoyed the discussions with you regarding these 4 part series of articles.

When Brazzil magazine published my last article on March 2007 one of the readers of the magazine send me an email saying that he had been reading Brazzil magazine on a regular basis for many years and he decided to get in contact with me to let me know that this particular article was the best article he ever read on Brazzil magazine, and he asked me to keep up with the good work.

That person might be reading this 4-part series as well and I thank you guys for the encouragement and for the feedback to let me know that my work is worth reading and it is being appreciated.

This is the article that he thought was the best and most informative article he read on Brazzil magazine in many years:

On March 2, 2007 Brazzil Magazine published my latest article “Here Is Why Brazil Should Adopt the New Asian Currency” - you can read it on the following web site:

http://www.brazzil.com/content...llComments


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Regarding the 4-part series of articles – I wrote the article as a single article and I broke it into 4-parts because of the structure of Brazzil magazine – in the past some readers complained to the editor that my articles were too long.

I write about very complex subjects and I spend a lot of time doing research on the material that I write – sometimes it takes weeks and weeks of research to produce a single article. After a lot of research had been done for the enclosed 4-part series of articles the article was almost ready for publication in early April 2007 - the article was about 90 percent done at that time.

Then we had a tragedy on our family – my younger sister died in mid-April 2007 – I was very close to my sister and after her death it took time for me to recover just enough to be able to finally finish this article and submit it for publication.

I am the oldest brother and after my sister’s death I still have my other sister an identical twin of the sister that just died.

We have been always a very close family and the day that my sister died a little part of me also died with her.

But I still will keep my optimism in the future regarding Brazil – a country that I miss a lot and love very much.

Thank you.

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The most glaring error that I saw in Part 4 was the assertion that that the U.S. somehow arrived at its corn-based ethanol industry as part of some kind of free-market process.
The federal ethanol use mandate, the associated tax credit and the discriminatory tariff against Brasilian ethanol are all products of "political entrepreneurship" at its
worst. If the individual states alone were allowed to make their own decisions on the issue, the U.S. would be consuming all the ethanol that Brasil could produce and the
concept of corn-based alcohol likely would not be a subject of serious discussion.

The federal ethanol use mandate, the associated tax credit and the discriminatory tariff against Brasilian ethanol are all products of "political entrepreneurship" at its
worst.

Conceição, my friend, we have to accept that Ricardo Amaral came up with good growth strategy for Brasil. So lets not nit pick on small errors. Since he is living in U.S. for too long, he may not know what is "Political Enterpreneurship" in Brasil. Lets educate and bring him into our camp of "Dashing and Real Enterpreneurs". You should have read his entire article at one stretch in his blog as I did.He covers a lot of areas and I think the plan can be bettered further.

You said: “The most glaring error that I saw in Part 4 was the assertion that that the U.S. somehow arrived at its corn-based ethanol industry as part of some kind of free-market process.”

I did mention on the article that it was the fact that the United States produces a lot of corn, and corn production increased even more because of the subsidies that the US government have had on its books from decades ago.

The corn producers have a big price advantage because of these US government subsidies.

The Brazilian ethanol industry was developed over a period of 30 years – and this ethanol government mandate in the US happened just few years ago.

And from the point of view of the American government it is not a discriminatory tariff against Brazilian ethanol – the tariff is a way to protect the farmers in the United States. The US government has the responsibility to do everything it can to keep the US farmers in business.

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By the way, the Cuban lobby in Florida has been able to keep quotas and tariffs on the books of the US government for decades regarding sugar production and as a result we have been paying at least double the price for sugar here in the United States than if we were able to import any amounts of sugar in world markets.

That's nothing new. It has been going on for decades.

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On March 2, 2007 Brazzil Magazine published my latest article “Here Is Why Brazil Should Adopt the New Asian Currency” - you can read it on the following web site:

http://www.brazzil.com/content...llComments

I started reading this on line newspaper after this earlier article was published. However, after the first part of the latest one was published, I did read your earlier one.

Regarding the 4-part series of articles – I wrote the article as a single article and I broke it into 4-parts because of the structure of Brazzil magazine – in the past some readers complained to the editor that my articles were too long.

On your recommendation, I went through the entire article at one stretch in your blog spot. So had plenty of time to mull over the subject under discussion and form my opinion!

Then we had a tragedy on our family – my younger sister died in mid-April 2007 – I was very close to my sister and after her death it took time for me to recover just enough to be able to finally finish this article and submit it for publication.

I am the oldest brother and after my sister’s death I still have my other sister an identical twin of the sister that just died.

Please do accept my condolences on your sister´s early demise. Such events shake up people and start wondering about life. What was the reason for her passing away? I hope she was not a victim of violence in São Paulo. I am glad that you are coping up with the tragic event. Once again my condolences.

But I still will keep my optimism in the future regarding Brazil – a country that I miss a lot and love very much.

So do I. As I said earlier, we need people with balls and are outspoken. With "xarapões", we go nowhere. Too many whiners and whimps, trying to frame our policy! One advice I would like to give you is to read the articles of a fellow Brasilian economist of yours Dr.Chirs Buarque and come out with your opinions. Even though I like to tease him, I think he makes lots of sense too.

Thank you.

You are most welcome and be in touch. Of course, the guys and gals in this blog will be questioning and harassing you. I am sure you enjoy sparring with them.

Of course the 54-cent tariff is a discriminatory tariff against Brasilian production - who the hell else could it be aimed at? Brasilian producers simply provide the goods at a
lower cost. And, subsidies don't protect anyone. The only economic effect of a subsidy is to benefit those peculiarly situated to capture the effect of the subsidy at the time of its creation. All that is left going forward is a market distortion that acts like a cancer on the affected economy.

Ricardo,

I understand how you feel. Just keep up the good work and good luck in your next assignment.

as of right know the tax price keeps most brasilians from buying any thing imported .

as far as food have you not seen the new deal china is building a water channel from the northern
river to the dry desert to start farming and for a far less price than 200 billion

as of right know the tax price keeps most brasilians from buying any thing imported .

as far as food have you not seen the new deal china is building a water channel from the northern
river to the dry desert to start farming and for a far less price than 200 billion

I am not surprise if you sent in a few million of Chinese population to the Sahara desert and they still can survive. Don't think about building a water channel. The Chinese will think big and will defintely build in the next dam that will transform the Sub-Sahara desert across to the Nile River. If Cleopatra is still alive she would definitely admires that Hu Jin Tao.

You said: “as far as food have you not seen the new deal china is building a water channel from the northern river to the dry desert to start farming and for a far less price than 200 billion”

After writing all these articles and trying to put the spotlight into China and all the problems that is going on with Global warming major droughts around the world and so on.

The one point that I have been trying to highlight some people still can’t grasp the magnitude and scope of everything related to China because the size of its 1.3 billion plus population. The challenges about everything that you can think of must be astronomic for the leaders of the Chinese government to deal with.

We are talking about over 1.3 billion people here and a lot of mouths to feed with major droughts happening in one of the major breadbasket regions of China, with underground aquifers being depleted, and with typhoons and hurricanes happening more often with their destructive forces.

And you thing that some water channel will resolve the precarious water crisis in China.

Let me try to put in a perspective that might make sense to you

Look at the water problems that we are having in the United States.

The Colorado River is going dry and 30 million people depend on the water of that river
including farmers, large towns and so on…

There are major areas in the US going through a drought like never before and many of these farmers are going out of business.

The city of Atlanta today has only 90 days of water supply and after that they have a major problem. And they are having a hard time finding a new source to supply water to their city’s water system. Basically everybody is realizing that there is a major water supply crisis coming very soon to your neighborhood.

Here in New Jersey one of our major newspapers run a series of articles in the last 3 months about the declining water supply in our area – and the article said that most people living here have no idea and they don’t realize how precarious the water system is that they depend on in the area where they live.

Here I just touched the tip of the iceberg of a major water crisis on the richest country of the world with a population that is only 25 percent of the total population of China.

China and the United States have about the same amount of freshwater available to them.
The US is having all these problems related to its’ freshwater supply now imagine the United States with a population of 1.3 plus billion people.

Not a pretty sight.

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By the way, where do you live in Brazil? You mentioned that you live in the South of Brazil.

Did you live for a time here in the US? Because your English is excellent.

Thanks for your wishes of condolences it has been a very tough time for our family. My sister’s death hit us like a ton of bricks. Slowly we are making some progress, but life for our immediate family it will never be the same for all of us.

You said: “Such events shake up people and start wondering about life.”

More than you can ever imagine.

You asked: What was the reason for her passing away?

She had some health problems – Lupus, pulmonary hypertension, and in the last few months of her life pancreatitis. She had a lot of pain in the last 3 months before her death and the last two weeks was a real nightmare.

You said: “One advice I would like to give you is to read the articles of a fellow Brasilian economist of yours Dr.Chirs Buarque and come out with your opinions. Even though I like to tease him, I think he makes lots of sense too.”

Where I can find some of his articles?

We will be in touch I am sure and you will be able to read some of my future articles here on Brazzil magazine.

You said: “Of course, the guys and gals in this blog will be questioning and harassing you. I am sure you enjoy sparring with them.”

I am used to that since some of the other forums that I participate including the Elite Trader Forum, the PBS Forum, and the Charlie Rose Show Forum, I am always defending Brazil and fighting against most people who like to bad mouth my country.

By the way, I was waiting for Rodney the editor of Brazzil magazine to publish the last part of the 4-part series of articles to let my network of friends and people who asked me to let them know when my latest article have been published – it is an interesting group of people and includes many college professors, some intellectuals, and also some famous writers. I am letting about 400 people know that my latest article is published, and I hope many of them will take the time to read these articles and even post some of their comments.

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You said: “Of course the 54-cent tariff is a discriminatory tariff against Brasilian production - who the hell else could it be aimed at? Brasilian producers simply provide the goods at a lower cost. And, subsidies don't protect anyone. The only economic effect of a subsidy is to benefit those peculiarly situated to capture the effect of the subsidy at the time of its creation. All that is left going forward is a market distortion that acts like a cancer on the affected economy."


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I have a question for you why are you so interested that Brazil sells ethanol to the US market?

You said: “subsidies don't protect anyone”

Tell that to the US farmers and I bet they would disagree with you.

You also said: “The only economic effect of a subsidy is to benefit those peculiarly situated to capture the effect of the subsidy at the time of its creation.”

You mean the US farmers of the 1930’s – and the subsidy that the currents US farmers are getting is only an illusion - And illusion worth millions of US dollars for them.

You said: “All that is left going forward is a market distortion that acts like a cancer on the affected economy.”

I mentioned that on my article when I said that Americans will feel the impact of ethanol production made of corn – when the increase of the price of corn, which doubled in price during the year 2006 – eventually it will impact the prices of all kinds of foodstuff at your local supermarket.

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You said: “I agree with you 100% pertaining to your statement about Brazilians needing a change of mindset. But what an incredible task that is!! Brazilians need to learn that THEY are in charge of their own destiny, and stop pointing fingers at everyone else besides themselves when things go wrong or are wrong. Brazilians need to come together and let the politicians know that they are responsible to the people, not the other way around.”

I also agree with you on all these points.

You said: “But Ricardo, that simply isn`t going to happen overnight. Matter of fact, unfortunately for me, and my daughter, I bet it will never happen in my lifetime. And there will never be quick, significant change in this country without bloodshed. Key words being "quick" and "significant". Whoever thinks I`m wrong about that last statement simply has no idea.”

We are getting in there into the critical point of no return – but in the meantime the bloodshed is already underway, and things it will get worse before it can be turned around

Maybe another General Castelo Branco is the only solution left.

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U.S. agricultural subsidies, etc related to ethanol only "protect" to the extent that they prevent a loss to those who have bought corn acreage or grain processor stocks after
the implementation of the subsidy regime. Generally speaking, the holders of these assets at the time of the implementation of the regime are either laughing all the way to the bank or are holding on and would not suffer a net loss from the elimination of the subsidies.

I am so interested in Brasilian producers selling into the U.S. market because I believe that it would benefit U.S. consumers on the one hand and, more importantly for this discussion, it would result in high levels of profits that could be invested back into the Brasilian economy. The question that I have for you is what amount high-margin
annual ethanol export profits accruing to Brasilian producers would match for economic development purposes the infusion of $200 billion in foreign investment from the
Chi-comms. My guess is that the elimination of the U.S. tariff and related preferences would do more for Brasilian economic development than the plan that you have put forward. It would be interesting if someone could develop metrics to compare the effect of the injection of high-margin export profits from ethanol into the Brasilian
economy as compared to direct investment by foreign multinationals as compared to the kind of government - to -government planned arrangement that you propose.

You wrote: “Ricardo is " pissed as hell about what is happening in Brazil and together we can change the country for the better." Yeh how Ricardo? Give some concrete examples. How do you get the courts to prosecute? How do you eliminate the graft and corruption so pervasive in government? What are the mechanisms of this change? It is self evident that the Brazil of what might be is being subverted by an entrenched, insidious, political gangsterism.”



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When General Castelo Branco became president of Brazil for a time the corruption problem got better.

In Singapore the cabinet ministers get $ 1 million dollars per year in salary – but if you get caught involved in any type of corruption then they get rid of you.

You wrote: “It is self evident that the Brazil of what might be is being subverted by an entrenched, insidious, political gangsterism.”

I know how you feel, since I live in the United States and we are going through a similar experience – in my opinion people like George W. Bush, and Dick Cheney belong in jail.

Sorry, but George W. Bush is going insane and right now he is talking about starting World War III – the man is a basket case and he belong to a loony bin.

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You wrote: “I am so interested in Brasilian producers selling into the U.S. market because I believe that it would benefit U.S. consumers on the one hand and, more importantly for this discussion, it would result in high levels of profits that could be invested back into the Brasilian economy. The question that I have for you is what amount high-margin annual ethanol export profits accruing to Brasilian producers would match for economic development purposes the infusion of $200 billion in foreign investment from the Chi-comms. My guess is that the elimination of the U.S. tariff and related preferences would do more for Brasilian economic development than the plan that you have put forward. It would be interesting if someone could develop metrics to compare the effect of the injection of high-margin export profits from ethanol into the Brasilian economy as compared to direct investment by foreign multinationals as compared to the kind of government - to -government planned arrangement that you propose.”


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Ethanol has been a good solution for Brazil, but is not a solution that can be exported for other countries.

As a matter of fact even if the United States had dropped its tariff on ethanol to zero if I would have suggested as did in some of my writings that the Brazilian government should place a tariff on ethanol exports to fluctuate according to the market price for oil on world markets to discourage Brazilian producers from exporting ethanol to the united States.

I hope the United States increase the tariff on imported ethanol to $ 1.00 dollar instead of the $ 0.54 cents that they have now.

Anyway, the solution for its energy problem in the US is not with ethanol or biofuels. The solution for the United States is the electric car which might make a quick come back.

The people who bought the electric cars loved their cars and the cars were a big success.
But the car manufacturers did not sell the cars they only leased these cars – and because of pressure from the oil companies compounded by the pressure from the car dealerships
They took all their electric cars back and destroyed thousands of them. They did not want to have people going around loving their electric cars and putting pressure on them for more.

The oil companies finally were able to put the last nail on the coffin of the electric car when Texaco an oil company bought from General motors the company that made the batteries for the electric car.

The auto dealers put pressure on the car manufacturers to drop the electric cars because the electric car operated with almost no maintenance and the maintenance business accounts for 1/3 of the income for the auto dealers to be able to survive.

General Motors and the other car manufacturers are sitting on state-of-the-art technology that they developed regarding the electric car – and in the meantime companies such as GM and Ford are just going through a slow death.

Talking about being stupid – these two companies should be let go out of business.

Now the electric car becomes even more desirable than ever since there is a new technology a new type of battery that let the car drive for 500 miles before it needs a new battery charge and it takes only 5 minutes for the new charge.

Now combine the concerns that people have today about Global Warming, with the fact that they already have a successful technology for the electric car, with the problem of securing new energy sources, and a new awareness about the value of freshwater supplies – the solution the electric car.

This solution is not going to happen before 2009 – because the idiots who are running the country today are all involved with the oil industry such as George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, Condi Rice and so on….(Condi Rice even have a oil supertanker named in her honor.)

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I need to say one last thing on this subject.

You said my plan is very bad – and I am proposing to use the agricultural power of Brazil to help the Chinese government to feed millions of people in China in the coming years.

And you think that it is a better choice to instead use the agricultural power of Brazil to feed car engines in the United States for people to be able to drive their cars.

In my opinion, there’s something wrong here with your way of thinking.

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You said: “Ricardo, I got a question for you. Once we grow sugar cane all over the country, don't you think that the price of a loaf of bread will go up? And who is going to be able to afford it?”


That’s why the Brazilian government should put an export tax on ethanol to discourage the export of ethanol to other countries.

Even if Brazil was allowed to export its entire production of ethanol to the United States that would replace just a very small percentage of oil usage in the United States. They had a couple of articles on the newspapers in the last few weeks talking about that.

The Brazilian government should keep its incentives for then to continue increasing the ethanol production in Brazil for internal consumption, and they should get away from oil as much as they can.

Brazil has the agricultural capacity to keep the ethanol industry growing in Brazil, but only for internal consumption – and at the same time have enough land to plant all the other crops necessary for foodstuff production.

It does not make sense to use the agricultural power of Brazil to export ethanol – in the coming years we are going to have major shortages of food because of problems of securing sources of freshwater and also because of weather problems such as major droughts, and so on….


You also said: “I am going to buy your book, any chance that I could send it to you for you to sign it?”

Please send me an email direct to me, and we can exchange info my email is at the end of the article.

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Since when do the Chi-comms feed anyone? The Chinese people are lucky to feed themselves despite their murderous government. You are obviously just some pseudo-
intellectual Marxist who would rather vegetate in a perpetual ideological stupor while vainly attempting to smear your filth all over anyone else who might be unfortunate enough to come into contact with you than attempt anything constructive. Thank God the world has left you and your kind behind and there is at least some honest attempt finally going on
to bring meaningful economic progress through globalization and freer trade. As for your ethanol export tariff, why not take your economic insanity to its logical conclusion,
reincarnate yourself as a modern day James Jones, and kill off as many Brasilians as you can with ethanol kool-aide - it would be right in character as lots of Brasilians die prematurely every day because of people like you and your corrupt ideology.

You said: “The solution? Give people decent salaries, our minimum is a disgrace!”


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Yes, it’s very low by any standard.


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I have a heavy dosage of “Andrada e Silva” BLOOD and DNA on my system. That’s probably why I always have been such an idealist.

As I mentioned before I am a descendant of Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva, also of his brother Martim Francisco because Martim Francisco married his niece a daughter of Jose Bonifacio.

My great-great grandfather Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Young) was a son of Martim Francisco.

My great-great grandfather Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Young) married Adelaide Eugenia Aguiar de Andrada – a granddaughter of Barbara Joaquina de Andrada, a sister of Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Patriarch).

Only our branch of the family has this heavy concentration of “Andrada e Silva” blood – mainly because Martim Francisco married his niece.

Now talking about the Andradas:

Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva is by far the greatest man in Brazilian history, and there are two former presidents of Brazil who agree with me – former president Jose Sarney and former president Fernando Cardoso.

To describe Jose Bonifacio greatness I would need to write many volumes.

Today, some Brazilians still know that Jose Bonifacio was the Patriarch of Brazilian independence. And Jose Bonifacio’s life it is fascinating in every way.

Antonio Carlos one of Jose Bonifacio’s brothers was one of the heads of the Mason revolution in Pernambuco in 1817. That revolution was crushed by the Portuguese and all the heads of that revolution were hanged with the exception of Antonio Carlos since the Portuguese were aware that he was a brother of Jose Bonifacio.

When Jose Bonifacio returned to Brazil in 1819 his brother Antonio Carlos still serving his 4-year prison term in a prison in Bahia.

After Jose Bonifacio’s death in 1838 both his brothers Martim Francisco and Antonio Carlos continued their political careers. And both brothers were responsible for the public demonstrations in support of the emancipation of Dom Pedro II.

When Dom Pedro II took office he rewarded the Andradas by appointing Antonio Carlos to the position of Prime Minister and Martim Francisco to the position of Finance Minister. That was the second time Martim Francisco had become Finance Minister of Brazil.

My great-great grandfather Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Young) is better known for his intellectual capabilities and one of the chairs at the Brazilian Academy of letters is named after him – the chair # 22.

He also was well known for his fight on the floor of the senate to end slavery in Brazil.
Both his grandfather Jose Bonifacio (The Patriarch) and his father Martin Francisco were against slavery.

I am not the only idealist on my immediate family. My sister the twin that still alive, she does a lot of missionary work in many countries. She usually goes to about 3 missionary trips a year to places such as Haiti, Ecuador, Peru, Panama, Colombia, Rio de Janeiro, and so on.

For the last 12 years she has been going to Haiti for one of these missionary trips – she goes with a friend of her who is also a missionary. They stay in this very poor convent where they take care of kids with aids. Most of the kids on this convent have been abandoned by their parents and there kids from newborn to kids who are 5 years old.

They help wash the kids, feed the kids, and so on… and they stay on that place about 2 weeks every year. We usually worry about her because she is white and her friend also is white and Haiti is a country that is close to total collapse.

On all the missionary trips that my sister participate are to help all these very poor people.

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You said so much besteiras That it is not even worth trying to discuss anything with you.

You have not even grasped the basics of what is going on with China, globalization, the amount of wealth that is being accumulated by the Sovereignty Funds, the massive transfer of wealth that is happening today.

Go and study a little more about your Marxist theories and give me a break.

In your mind China is nothing more than a country of peasants dressed in Mao outfits.

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Answers to your questions and additional comments:

By the way, where do you live in Brazil? You mentioned that you live in the South of Brazil.

The Capital of SC.

Did you live for a time here in the US?

Yes, for a short duration and longer North of the Border.

She had some health problems – Lupus, pulmonary hypertension, and in the last few months of her life pancreatitis. She had a lot of pain in the last 3 months before her death and the last two weeks was a real nightmare.

Thanks for clarifying. Getting involved in work and interacting with other people helps to alleviate the sorrow, but at the same time cherishing the fond memories of the departed beloved ones.

You said: “One advice I would like to give you is to read the articles of a fellow Brasilian economist of yours Dr.Chirs Buarque and come out with your opinions. Even though I like to tease him, I think he makes lots of sense too.”

Chris Buarque´s articles are regularly published in this magazine and if you go through the list of articles published in this magazine, you will find his.He is a Senator and stood for the Presidential elections last year and lost. He also has his own web site. The biggest complaint of the commentators in this forum is that he doesnt participate actively. Of course I understand that he is too busy,but at least he could allocate one of his Englsih speaking advisors!

Maybe another General Castelo Branco is the only solution left.

I was wondering when you were going to say it!! I think our friends Bo and AES, should inform themselves about the history!!! May be you should invite your cousin in MG to write an article about this

Ethanol has been a good solution for Brazil, but is not a solution that can be exported for other countries.

Bloody right again. We have a blogger who goes by the name of "Brazilian Dude" who has commented on this issue before. He must be somewhere with no access to the Internet.Otherwise, he would have come out with his comments after reading the last part of your article.

BTW, do you still speak, read and write Portuguese?

took the old roamdeep up the 3 rivers dam and looking at it that way and the amount of people china has they could and will transform there desert to a green belt and feed there population with little to no help from out side

on the other hand brasil will sell off all its food stufs as the greed for money by brasilian company owners
will over come the needs of there own people

just pay them little , keep them dumb , and give them a 4 day drunk every 4 weeks
and they will be happy

While the U.S. sugar beet and sugar cane producers look beyond sugar to ethanol possibilities, the major effect of 100 dollar crude will be not towards alcohol but towards oil shale and oil sands, of which North America has an almost unlimited supply, and from which 20 dollar a barrel crude is currently being extracted.

Investors should be looking at companies involved in oil field production equipment, as jack up platforms amd holding facilities.

Political opinion tirades take away from an author´s credibility. One has the right to hold any views one wants on political subjects but must recognize that there is a price to pay for such sophomoric outbursts, if their are peripheral to the subjects at hand.

I personally think that the world is truly at crises. Not only Brazil but elsewhere. As an officer who is still under training in diplomatic services I personally belief that the time has come for all of us to look deep into each crises and start to find out the best way to keep our mind alert. Besides nobody should blame one another. The world is round and no matter where you travel you will always want to go home. If there is home on earth than let's make a great difference for us and our children of the future. We can't just hand out the unsolve problems that we face now to the next generation. The circumstances will be far outcry and most probably they will blame us of all the bad consequences. So let's start thinking and do some changes while we still can and before it is too late..........

Watch Mozambique. China has 30,000 executives there right now. This week 500 containers of rare logs were retained in customs that were being shipped to China. Logs must be sawed by Mozambicans before exporting and not exported as whole logs. The Chinese pay $80 per cubic meter for the logs and sell them for $200 in China. The Chinese attempted to bi-pass the local mills. The conflict is not centered on the fact that the logs are rare but who profits, the Chinese or the Mozambicans. Apply for any business permit in China at any level and the first and most important question you will be asked is, how will this enterprise benefit China? What China needs is raw materials, they don't need anything else. They have more than enough cheap labor and factories to produce refined products.

The only thief is the one that gets caught. The Chinese have been dealing jade for a thousand years. The better the colour the more valuable the stone. So logic dictates improve the color without detection. A Chinese dealer came into my store with jade. I asked him if it was dyed, he said, "no not dyed, natural, 100% natural." I asked him if he would mind if I tested it with acetone. He said, "oh no, don't test." I thanked him and he exited the store. Similarly a Chinese manufacturer of gold jewelry came in with a very well priced selection of "genuine 14 and 18 Karat." The Chinese had a not unearned rep**ation for under-karating, but stamping it anything they chose. I asked him if it was truly 14 and 18Karat. "Oh yes 100%," he said. I asked him if he would mind if I tested it with nitric acid, as this is the only test for determining the Karat of gold. "Oh no, don't test'. I thanked him for coming in to see me, but that I did not need anything at this time. They regard Americans as stupid, that do not have the sense to test what there eyes perceive. Just because a piece of jewelry is stamped 14K doesn't mean that it is; you can stamp a penny 14K, but it doesn't make it so. They did not bargain that I had been taught by Thai Chinese gem merchants. They were students in my English class. I taught them English and helped them generate a million dollars in business their first year; and they taught me ruby, sapphire and jade. The Chinese will teach you nothing that will help you make money unless you are family. Money is life. For the Chinese that is not merely an aphorism, but an historical fact.

My condolences to you and your family. I hope that time can heal some of the pain. I have lost a loved one-my little nephew and have to say that life is never going to be the same for us. Keep up with the good work and even tough I am not 100% in agreement with you-reality is we all have different opinions, I applaud you for trying to find out solutions to the perils of our country. I do miss Brazil and wish that life was different. We don't have family here-my husband has some in California, but pretty much we are by ourselves and it is difficult during the holidays. I do believe that the politicians are to blame for the current situation in Rio and if we could do a "faxina" in congress, we would be much better.

Apply for any business permit in China at any level and the first and most important question you will be asked is, how will this enterprise benefit China? What China needs is raw materials, they don't need anything else. They have more than enough cheap labor and factories to produce refined products.

Yes, they will do whatever it takes to get hold of raw materials because they are destroying their own country. Ricardo has some good ideas, but Brazil cannot enforce current laws regarding logging in the Amazon!

but towards oil shale and oil sands, of which North America has an almost unlimited supply, and from which 20 dollar a barrel crude is currently being extracted.

Did you see the magazine WaterKeeper, they mentioned that they are developing technology to extract some of the oil from the sands? This could have a major environmental impact, since they are disturbing an ecosystem, deposition of sand on beaches, erosion, use 2/4X more water-which we have to conserve.
"Alberta Tar Sands
Squeezing oil from Alberta’s tar sands makes standard crude oil look like solar energy in comparison. Each barrel of oil produced from the mixture of sand, clay and silt that holds the thick, oily bitumen requires two to four times more water than a comparable barrel of crude, and produces three times as many greenhouse gases.Tar sands perations are destroying thousands of square miles of one of North America’s last remaining wild forests, the Boreal, along with the wetlands and wildlife that depend on this fragile
sub-arctic ecosystem, including many of America’s migratory birds. Most of today’s tar sands production sites include massive open pit mines, some as large as three miles wide and 200 feet deep. Because only a small fraction of the oil-producing bitumen deposits are close to the surface (less than 20 percent), the rest of the deep reserves must be extracted by injecting steam underground and pumping the melted bitumen back to the surface. Once separated from the sand, clay and silt, the bitumen is a low-grade heavy
oil that must undergo yet another energy-intensive refining process to turn it into a crude oil that more closely resembles conventional oil.At 960 miles (1,538 kilometers) long the Athabasca River is Alberta’s longest river and one of the few undammed rivers left in North America. Up to four and a half barrels of water are drawn from the Athabasca to produce each barrel of tar sands oil. This water ends up in huge toxic tailings ponds. Currently planned oil sands projects will increase water withdrawals more than 50 percent to 529 million cubic meters per year — more water than Toronto uses each each year." WaterKeeper

I am not the only idealist on my immediate family. My sister the twin that still alive, she does a lot of missionary work in many countries. She usually goes to about 3 missionary trips a year to places such as Haiti, Ecuador, Peru, Panama, Colombia, Rio de Janeiro, and so on.For the last 12 years she has been going to Haiti for one of these missionary trips – she goes with a friend of her who is also a missionary. They stay in this very poor convent where they take care of kids with aids. Most of the kids on this convent have been abandoned by their parents and there kids from newborn to kids who are 5 years old.They help wash the kids, feed the kids, and so on… and they stay on that place about 2 weeks every year. We usually worry about her because she is white and her friend also is white and Haiti is a country that is close to total collapse.

I am aware of the situation in Haiti. I am going to the Dominican Republic this summer to implement, with a group of 10 people some environmental conservation programs. DR's president and the people in general, has seen the link between respecting the environment and economic prosperity. They depend heavily on tourism and understand the correlation between clean beaches and money. If I have time, I am going to Haiti-I am somewhat fluent in French, worked for Air France and spent a lot of time in France. I would be interested in getting involved in some missionary work over there. Anyway, there is nothing wrong about being an idealist-as long as you don't harm others, and you are trying to help Brazil, a commendable act and I respect you for that. We need people like you aboard, we need good leadership and most people here will agree: the middle class is being squeezed, that violence is out of control, the poor need more economic opportunity, decent wages and education.

have seen

I have sent you my personal e-mail, details will follow.

The American system is in shambles and it does not have a prayer to get any better because of the way the free market works - the oil companies don't want to give up their monopoly position and they will try to undermine the competition in every way possible.

Agree, there is no separation of "oil and state" in the US.

Oil dominates because of availability of supply but also because of price. The IMF has just reported that the only motor fuel source that can currently be produced at below the cost of gasoline is, no surprise, Brasilian ethanol - 20-25% less costly. The U.S. oil industry would love to have as much Brasilian ethanol as it could get right now to run through its refineries as the free market price of Brasilian ethanol would be lower than the free market market price of energy-equivalent crude oil. This whole situation proves
up the reality that the 54-cent tariff is wholly designed to discriminate against Brasilian ethanol production. The only protection going on is protection of oil-exporting enemies
of the U.S. like Chavez. Chavez, no doubt to his delight, thus benefits from the lack of a U.S. free market in motor fuel imports due to the gross distortions that have arisen throughout the U.S. economy because a bunch of millionaire pigs in Iowa can, through the political system, force their idiot tariff and associated preferences on the rest of the
country. And, on the margin, a few Brasilians die prematurely every day because of this stupidity.

We need people like you aboard, we need good leadership and most people here will agree

We need people like you here in BRASIL and NOT abroad.

We need people like you here in BRASIL and NOT abroad.

Thanks, you are such a nice guy. Anyway, I just came back from a doctors visit. I went this morning to a neurologist, since I suffer from severe migraines, I went to change meds. I found out that I may have rheumatoid arthritis. I have done some blood work today, he picked up some "possible" inflammation on my jaw joints, it hurts and it pops quite often. He said it is likely that I have the migraines because of TMJ and this could be caused by the R.arthritis. So, I am a little pissed today, this could seriously hurt my career and my future. I think old age is going to be difficult for me, maybe I will have to go back due to health reasons, apparently cold weather can make it worse.

He said it is likely that I have the migraines because of TMJ and this could be caused by the R.arthritis. So, I am a little pissed today, this could seriously hurt my career and my future.

You are taking the entire thing too seriously. Just dont get paranoic and remember that you have to wait for the complete results of the tests. I get migraine too, when I watch our politicos on the TV talking bulls**t! So take it easy and everything will be alrigth.

Also give up on your idea of going to Haiti and doing "Charity Work". I dont think that you are aware that we are doing lot of "charity work" , by being there on "peace keeping mission". I wonder what happened to the "Brazilian Dude" who has talked about the kind of charity mission we are involved in

In the meantime, you take care and dont worry about the migraine. It will go away!

As an officer who is still under training in diplomatic services I personally belief that the time has come for all of us to look deep into each crises and start to find out the best way to keep our mind alert.

Ah, you are a Malaysian diplomat under training eh? How many languages do you speak besides English,Malay,Chinese,Hindi, Tamil,etc;. Probably Spanish and Portuguese?. The few contacts I had with the diplomats from your part of the world taught me something. They strive hard to learn the language of the country where there are posted and mingle with the "natives".

Out of curiosity: Once your training is over, would you be posted as a "First Secretary" in one of your embassies overseas?

Btw, how are our Chinese "allies" doing in Burma? Did they manage to convince the Generals to leave the Monks in peace? Are our new allies going to leave Tibet? Your comments are highly appreciated.

You said: “My condolences to you and your family.”

Thank you.

You also said: “I am not 100% in agreement with you.”

Thanks God for that otherwise we would not be having this discussions – and it would be very boring if you were 100 percent in agreement with me.

You said: “I do believe that the politicians are to blame for the current situation in Rio and if we could do a "faxina" in congress, we would be much better.”

It is hard to put the blame in only one group, since there is a lot that wrong starting with the religious influences in Brazil.

You also said: “Ricardo has some good ideas, but Brazil cannot enforce current laws regarding logging in the Amazon!”

The main problem with logging in the Amazon is related to the Indonesian companies – and they don’t respect Brazilian conservation laws.

Following Conceicao’s way of thinking of complete unrestricted free trade – they should cut and sell up to the last Jacaranda tree in Brazil to make a quick buck – that’s the capitalism way.

I also have been reading about the problem with extracting oil from the tar sands and their use of a lot of freshwater.

I would not recommend that you do charity work in Haiti, since every time my sister goes to Haiti my mother is really worried about her safety – that place is a mess and they have approximately 80 percent unemployment.

I am very aware that the middle class is being squeezed, that violence is out of control in Brazil. In the last 30 years they have been trying to destroy completely the Brazilian middle class. I know a number of people who were very wealthy 30 years ago and today many of these people and also the new generation are struggling to be able to survive in Brazil.

I hope you have received my response to your email.

You mentioned in one of your postings that you have problems with migraine headaches.
My stepfather had a terrible problem with migraines – he went to the hospital a number of times and they did all kinds of tests on him – after many years of this vicious cycle he did not know what else to do – as a last resort on a recommendation of a friend he decided to try acupuncture, and he did about 5 treatments in a short period of time. After that he never had another migraine headache again. The migraine went away like a miracle.


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Hi Lina,

How are you?
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You asked me: “BTW, do you still speak, read and write Portuguese?”

Yes I am fluent in Portuguese even though my written Portuguese it is a little enferrujado, because I almost never have the chance to write anything in Portuguese.

Going back to the subject - Ethanol has been a good solution for Brazil, but is not a solution that can be exported for other countries.

Thanks God the United States has that tariff on imported ethanol from Brazil.

If the US had no tariff and Brazilians were aloud to export as much ethanol as they wanted – what would happen to the Brazilian economy?

Brazil it would lose its energy advantage that Brazil is enjoying right now. And the Brazilian companies would try to export most of its ethanol, and the price of ethanol would go way up inside Brazil to the Brazilian consumers in turn generating a major inflationary pressure in the Brazilian economy. Under this choice the Brazilian population loses because of the impact of inflation and higher prices and only a handful of ethanol exporters would benefit from this bad choice.

Food prices also would go away up in Brazil creating even more inflation as more farmers would switch from other crops to plant sugar cane to be able to increase the ethanol production for the export market.

With the price of a barrel of oil approaching $ 100 per barrel and possibly going even higher – this increasing price of oil situation will affect in a negative way the economies of a lot countries around the world – and it will not affect the Brazilian economy as much because of its unique energy position related to the use of ethanol.

The lower the price of ethanol is when compared with oil the better the economic advantage that the Brazilian economy when compared with the countries dependent on oil as the source of energy.

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By the way, yesterday I was reading the last issue of Inc magazine – a well know business magazine here in the USA. (Issue October 2007)

And that magazine had a very interesting article “ New Global Hot Spots – Look Beyond Shanghai for the Next Big Thing.”

The article listed about 6 new upcoming hot cities from around the world and they listed one city in Brazil. Here is what the magazine said:

“Belo Horizonte: population 5.3 million – hot industries includes mining, agribusiness, technology.

What’s new: Unlike bursting-at-the-seams Sao Paulo, Belo Horizonte has room to grow, not to mention a popular pro-business governor. The state government has spent billions recently to upgrade highways, rails, and the electric grid, which has attracted manufacturers and suppliers to the local mining industry.

Belo’s top universities have drawn companies like Google, which has an R & D lab here.

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Well, this morning I took some friends to the airport to catch the GOL to MAO and RR. We stopped off at the feira. Sellers were getting set up for the day. Pushcarts, portable stalls. My friends bought 50 crabs. Cost one real here, 5 reais in MAO. Put them in two boxes.

The airport dude wouldn´t accept them as baggage, so later I took them back. Can´t take live crabs as checked baggage. If you have to, put them in a suitcase instead of a cardboard box.

There was a guy at the street market at 6 a.m. in kwecas. Cuecas. Shorts only. That´s what Brazilian politicians often use to transport large amounts of cash. Don´t try it with live shellfish. Anyway, last night some ho slipped him a mickey in his drink and then took his wallet and clothes.

But I´m sure that this cautionary tale comes as no revelation to some of you fellow bloggers.

Why bring this up, now? Because obviously interest has waned in the title subject at hand.

The old Belo airport was UP ON THE HILL.

Well, this morning I took some friends to the airport to catch the GOL to MAO and RR

I guess RR=Ronald Reagan Airport. Question: Can you take live crabs into U.S. of A?

How could the price of ethanol go up in Brasil when Petrobras prices off of world market prices? I had assumed that Brasil had under Cardoso moved past the Iranian model of energy price controls, but I suppose Mr. Amaral longs for the good old days of the controlled economy - why worry about inflation when you can just index it away? As for the
Jacaranda tree, its problem is that no one owns it; thus, citizens of his ideological bent feel free to take what they can get. Face reality and deal with it; it is Lula's constituents that are cutting down the forest and they are doing it for fuel. Finally, let me remind you that ethanol, unlike the Jacaranda tree, is a renewable resource. How can anyone fail to see that selling the most ethanol the fastest optimizes economic development and opportunities for Brasilians? Aside from the Iowa corn farmers, the person most hurt by the
lifting of the tariff will be Chavez - and this is of course why people like Mr. Amaral support it. The price of motor fuel will not rise in Brasil from the lifting of the tariff, but the price that Chavez can get from exporting his heavy oil to the U.S.may well fall on the margin. Also, the forests in the U.S. Northeast have almost completely grown back. Brasil
can experience the same phenomenon along its Atlantic Coast if those of Mr. Amaral's persuasion would just get out of the way and accept modernity.

Let me add that the actual cash that Brasilian ethanol producers handed over to U.S. taxpayers under the tariff in 2006 would have been enough to fund something like 10-20%
of the Bolsa Familia. Thus, people like Mr. Amaral are so extreme and so in love with the corrupt ideology represented by Chavez, Castro, the Chi-comms, etc., that they would
literally take food out of mouths of the poorest Brasilians rather than let participants in the Brasilian ethanol industry earn an honest living in the world market eager for the
goods that they produce.

By RR I meant the city of Boa Vista.

Quoting from Conceicao’s postings – that’s pure Marxist talk:

1) the U.S. economy because a bunch of millionaire pigs in Iowa

2) that they would literally take food out of mouths of the poorest Brasilians rather than let participants in the Brasilian ethanol industry earn an honest living – to - Let me add that the actual cash that Brasilian ethanol producers handed over to U.S. taxpayers under the tariff in 2006 would have been enough to fund something like 10-20%
of the Bolsa Familia.

3) Her favorite reading material: corrupt ideology represented by Chavez, Castro, the Chi-comms.

4) She talks about how in favor she is of 100 percent free market ideals: then when her ideas produce major inflation inside the Brazilian economy her solution = why worry about inflation when you can just index it away.

Basically she wants to go back to the Zimbabwe inflationary style model of economy.

She also said: “How can anyone fail to see that selling the most ethanol the fastest optimizes economic development and opportunities for Brasilians?”

The price of motor fuel will not rise in Brasil from the lifting of the tariff (I guess in the US) –

Since the ethanol producers in Brazil would be able to sell their current production of ethanol into the domestic Brazilian market and also to the US market at the same time.

Or for them to increase ethanol production to sell on a more profitable US market Brazilian producers change the make up of domestic crop production shifting from soy and other crops into sugar cane production to be able to produce the ethanol.

With the higher demand from the United States with no limit in sight – considering that even if Brazil sells its entire ethanol production in Brazil it would not make even a dent in the amount that they will need in the United States considering that the US will increase drastically its demand for ethanol to add into their gasoline available for public consumption – even more now that oil prices is skyrocketing.

If there is any idiot who want to follow Conceicao’s suggestions the result would be catastrophic in Brazil - a major increase in the domestic price of ethanol for the entire Brazilian population and also taking away any benefits that she is working so hard for such as the bolsa familia.

Basically the price of the major crops would all go up with devastating results in food prices that people would have to pay at their local supermarkets – and that would affect also the pocket book of all the poor people that she talks about.

That’s how the free market economy works.

And what I find most unbelievable about Conceicao’s theories is that she want that the Brazilian economy to go back to the days of run away inflation and gimmicks such as indexing of everything else…. She wants to go back to the world of illusion.

With great ideas like hers the Brazilian economy would be in no time down the toilet.

By the way, members of my family sold about 2 years ago an ethanol refinery that they had in the state of Sao Paulo to some foreign company.


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I have never been in Belo Horizonte. But it seems to me that 50 percent of all Brazilian immigrants here in the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Metropolitan area came from Minas Gerais. It is estimated that there are over 500 thousand Brazilians living in the our
try-state area.

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Somehow it gives me an impression that many peple who, in this blog and the articles related to it in this site, have NOT read the previous comments made by distinguished commentators like "Brazilian Dude", Ch.c, Ric, Forrest or myself who have known about this program since its inception.It is enough to read the comments made under the articles published in this site. In fact, Ric and I know plenty about the Ethanol run cars since we have used them. Probably the Brazilian Dude too. Ch.c, knows hard numbers. Basically Mr.Amaral´s message and that of people like those I cited is :Lets use our land and water resources to feed our citizens and the the rest of the world that needs to EAT. They buyes dont have to be just the Chinese, but could be Arabs, Indians, who either dont have enough land to grow food or the arid conditons of their land do not permit growing of food to feed their populations. Somehow, the message seems to be lost on some of our sporodic readers.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I repeat that I know about this Ethanol project right from the beginning. It was a strategic decision to develop this project by our erstwhile Military government for Brazil not to be held as hostage by people like Ayotullas, Chavez and other similar tin pot dictators with oil underneath their feet.However, along the way, our politicos decided to claim credit and sell it to the entire world as the only alternative fuel that would SAVE the entire world.

Ch.c mentioned almost a dozen times that India is the largest importer of Brazilian ethanol and I decided to check the veracity of his info. I found that to be correct. Not only that, but that country does not have ethanol run cars, but the refineries mix ethanol with gasoline to bring down the cost of Production. Naturally, as in the case of Brasil, the price at the pumps has not come down. For almost 30 years, I have seen the price per liter of Ethanol being manipulated for the consumers.So I am not going overboard to buy a new car that runs on this fuel,just because our government wants to sell this product overseas and increase our foreign currency reserves.

If you have any doubts, please pose your questions to Mr.Ch.c and not to Mr.Amaral who has more patience to go over this issue again and again and at some point, he may lose it too.

One more message: If the American bloggers in this site are so concerned about the import tax being charged by U.S. on Brazilian Ethanol, please go ahead and write to YOUR senators and complain. And I hope, when they do remove the Tax, the gas prices at your pump will come down, like it did in India and Brasil.

By RR I meant the city of Boa Vista.

Thanks for the clarification. Cant believe that GOL refused to transport the live crabs from your place (SP?) to Boa Vista! In the good ole days, they used to catch shrimps before day break in SC,put them in Styrofoam boxes and transport to Foz by VARIG. The Restuarants in Foz were proud to serve fresh shrimps to their customers.

Notice that Mr. Amaral talks like a Soviet planning minister and never brings the concept of profit into the equation. I admit that tying the ethanol tariff to the Bolsa Familia
as above is almost total nonsense. Nevertheless, it is an appropriate comment for this thread since Mr. Amaral standard leftest line of trying to tie the ethanol issue to
environmental, food price and fuel price issues is even more nonsense. Brasil needs to earn foreign exchange and export profits to stabilize its economy. Let me remind
you that interest rates remain prohibitively high by global standards and don't seem to be dropping based on recent news. What about the balance of payment benefits from
ethanol exports, the tax revenues to support the primary surplus that Brasil needs to run, and the money that could well be deployed elsewhere that Brasilian producers are being forced to pay to U.S. taxpayers? Mr. Amaral's approach would suggest that these are non-issues when they obviously matter a lot to anyone interested in seeing Brasil improve its here-to-date lagging rate of economic growth. Brasil is under-developed economically. That means, by definition, that the kind of scarcity scare tactics employed by Mr. Amaral don't apply in the Brasilian context. Let me add, finally, that given the country's history and the centuries of misery for participants in the sugar sector of the economy, I find it odd that any Brasilian would react any way but enthusiastically at the prospect of being able to sell a sugar byproduct into a global market at the prevailing
price tied to hydrocarbon fuels. Given the profit margins involved, ethanol exports are literally a magic bullet for the developmental disadvantages under which Brasil has seemingly always operated. Plus, ethanol can be the lever to eliminate or reduce tariff and related restrictions on other Brasilian agricultural sector exports - isn't this
what the current Doha negotiations are about from the Brasilian standpoint?

If, for the sake of argument, food prices in Brasil were affected by the ethanol export industry and a government solution were thought appropriate, why would not the
preferred government response be to limit the export of lower profit margin commodities like beef, chicken and soy instead of killing the ethanol cash cow?

Notice that Mr. Amaral talks like a Soviet planning minister and never brings the concept of profit into the equation.

You must be a Soviet plant, Ricardo! Tu não prestas , cara

Sound economics. A concise analysis.

I don’t know why I still answering to Conceicao’s postings since she says a lot of besteiras – one after another.

But on the other hand maybe there are some other readers such as Conceicao who have not grasped the ideas that I was trying to convey on my 4-part series of articles.

Maybe if she had understood what I said on my 4-part series of articles she would not have said a lot of her nonsense.

Sometimes I give too much background on my articles – but I do that because I don’t want to assume that other people know everything that I know plus my practical business experience. I try to give as much detail as I can to clarify as many points possible to help the reader understand what I am trying to say.

It’s hard to discuss the big picture with someone who’s point of view is frozen in just one concept such is the case with Conceicao – and she does not have a full understanding even of the subject that she is talking about.

She has not grasped or has no idea that today the major pools of money are being accumulated by a number of countries that are using the money to invest on their Sovereignty Investment Funds. That is where the big money is being accumulated around the world – From Singapore’s Sovereignty fund, to the UAE fund, to this new Chinese investment fund. And these funds are accumulating more money as never seen before.

Let me explain a little further otherwise she will miss the point once again – The Gulf states in the Middle East are accumulating all this money because the demand for oil has skyrocketed in many countries - including in India and China - and these oil producing countries are swamped with the extra revenue from the increased demand for their product which in turn is pushing up the skyrocketing price of oil in world markets.

In the case of China they are accumulating a ton of money from selling all the products that they make into the United States and around the world.

Here is another besteira that Conceicao said: “Notice that Mr. Amaral talks like a Soviet planning minister and never brings the concept of profit into the equation.”
She has not grasped that the fund that I mentioned that would be created in Brazil to be responsible for the investment of the $ 200 billion dollars of China’s investment money – would contract the private sector to build all these infrastructure in Brazil - and when these companies that bid for each individual project their bid would include a reasonable profit margin - otherwise what is the sense of bidding on these projects if they were not allowed to make a profit?

Not only the projects would be built by the private sector, and the best proposal would win - these projects would create a lot of good paying jobs for millions of Brazilian workers including engineers, truck drivers, manual labor in construction sites, and so on.

The difference here is that the Chinese would have a better guarantee that they would be repaid in the future years since the Brazilian government is the one responsible for the payments of this large debt. And the Chinese have the incentive to lend such a large amount to Brazil, because the Chinese will need the interest on these loans in future years to pay the benefits to a large amount of Chinese who will be retiring in China.

This is not a Chinese give away to the Brazilians it is a business proposition as any other which has to be justified on the merits of each individual project.

The other part of the plan that passed a thousand miles above Conceicao’s head – is that all this infrastructure would help develop in Brazil an economy of the future – from tourism, to manufacturing, to the service industries and would be available all over the country and people would not have to move from where they live in Brazil to participate in this new economic boom.

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Conceicao said: “Nevertheless, it is an appropriate comment for this thread since Mr. Amaral standard leftest line of trying to tie the ethanol issue to environmental, food price and fuel price issues is even more nonsense.”

Here her nonsense does not even deserve a comment.


Conceicao said: “Brasil needs to earn foreign exchange and export profits to stabilize its economy. Let me remind you that interest rates remain prohibitively high by global standards and don't seem to be dropping based on recent news.”

First she says that inflation it does not matter because prices can be indexed – and she has no idea that inflation affects the level of interest rate.

And if you have inflation that would push interest rate higher in turn affecting all parts of the Brazilian economy.


Conceicao: “What about the balance of payment benefits from ethanol exports, the tax revenues to support the primary surplus that Brasil needs to run, and the money that could well be deployed elsewhere that Brasilian producers are being forced to pay to U.S. taxpayers?”

First, Brazilian producers are not forced to sell into the US market – and there is a very big world out there with other markets for their product – You talk about free trade then you keep whining how these bad capitalist pigs in the US – as you put it - are keeping Brazilian money that could deployed elsewhere such as the bank accounts of the ethanol producers in Brazil.

Here is a pathetic statement – “Brasilian producers are being forced to pay to U.S. taxpayers.”

Why don’t they have a tea party revolt in Brazil against this type of English imperialism?


Conceicao: “That means, by definition, that the kind of scarcity scare tactics employed by Mr. Amaral don't apply in the Brasilian context. Let me add, finally, that given the country's history and the centuries of misery for participants in the sugar sector of the economy, I find it odd that any Brasilian would react any way but enthusiastically at the prospect of being able to sell a sugar byproduct into a global market at the prevailing price tied to hydrocarbon fuels.”

Increased demand for a product which is usually followed by increasing price for that product – became a scare tacticaccording to Conceicao – the economic concept of increasing demand for a product followed by increasing price for that product has become a scare tactic – now I understand what is happening with the price of oil in world markets – which is approaching $ 100 per barrel of oil – it is just a scare tactic from the oil producing countries of the world.

Now that Conceicao explained to me I have a better understanding.

The US economy is getting scared to death right now – I am anyway every time I stop on a gas station to fill up the tank of my car with gasoline.

That reminds me of the Polish fellow who told his friend that the constant increasing price of gasoline did not affect him in any way.

His friend was puzzled by what his friend had just said and he asked his friend explain to me how the constant increases in the price of gasoline it does not affect you.

His Polish friend said: it is very simple every time I go to any gas station I ask the attendant to put $ 20 dollars of gas on my car. And I always ask for that same amount.

That’s similar to Conceicao’s plan to beat inflation.


.

Conceicao: “Given the profit margins involved, ethanol exports are literally a magic bullet for the developmental disadvantages under which Brasil has seemingly always operated. Plus, ethanol can be the lever to eliminate or reduce tariff and related restrictions on other Brasilian agricultural sector exports…”


***


It is worth to make a quickly comparison between my plan and what Conceicao is suggesting with her ethanol export plan.

My plan would create millions of jobs inside Brazil, and would connect Brazil with the world of tomorrow with infinite possibilities for the development of the Brazilian economy. All the parts of my plan would create good paying jobs – and would help to connect all kinds of Brazilian companies into the loop of the advanced societies and the industries of tomorrow – including hi-tech, service industries, and so on….

By the way, all these industries that I am talking about on my plan pays a higher wage for the people involved on most of these industries. And the potential to sell Brazilian products and services into the world market it would be limited only by lack of creativity, imagination and innovation of the Brazilian people.

My plan if implemented would help to open the doors to the future – the 21st century - and the sky is the limit – open the door to more tourism in Brazil, more service industry, more hi-tech industries, and an increase in demand for highly educated people to work in all these innovative ways of the future.

Now let’s go back to Conceicao’s future plans for the Brazilian economy.

Let me remind the readers of some facts: about 100 years ago 70 percent of the United States population made their living in some way related to agriculture – when the US population was around 90 million people.

Today, the US population is estimated to be around 305 million people and only a little over 2 percent of the US population make their living in anyway related to agriculture. Not only that, but the US agriculture market is so successful that they also help feed million of people out side the United States every year.

The modern farming system employs very few people and produces a lot – besides the wages of the people in agriculture are much lower than in many other areas of the economy specially when compared with the hi-tech areas.

Basically, Conceicao’s economic development plan for Brazil involves putting all Brazil’s eggs in an industry 100 years old with declining jobs prospect, and declining wages.

She thinks that the future of Brazil should based on millions of peasants working on sugar cane fields and getting an wage so low that the bolsa familia would look like a fortune for them.

Another thing that is happening here in the US regarding the production of ethanol – according to Conceicao it is just a scare tactic – anyway, during the year of 2006 because of the demand for corn increased so much and this increase was related to ethanol production – the price of corn doubled during the year – and to make things even worse many farmers started switching their crops from soybean, and other crops to corn since the price of corn was going up and being fueled by the high demand for that commodity – the result is that as the farmers started switching from soybean to corn – that created a shortage of soybean in the market and then the price of soybean also started moving up.

The problem is that corn and soybean are used as feed for all kinds of animals, such as cows, pigs, chickens and so on…and now these higher prices started showing up in the supermarket in the form of higher prices for all kinds of food items from meat, to milk and so on….

And higher prices on the economy is not good – it’s called inflation – and higher inflation eventually would affect the level of interest rates and the price of the currency in world markets.


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Here is an example of how the new world works and something similar to the MoveOn website and organization can be created in Brazil to organize the Brazilian people into taking action to get rid of corruption and also the widespread crime in Brazil.

You can organize 1,000’s of weekly parties on volunteer’s houses to put in place some plan of action to fight back against corruption and crime in Brazil.

The wealthy people in Brazil has the incentive to fund such a organization in Brazil because the wealthy are also affected by the wave of crime that is out of control in Brazil and they are also worried about their family’s safety.


**********


Internet grassroots politics
“The day of the netroots”
Oct 11th 2007
From The Economist print edition

IN THE summer of 2005, a seat on the Supreme Court fell vacant. George Bush was obviously going to nominate a conservative to fill it. MoveOn.org, an online protest group, was determined to block whomever he named. Since MoveOn was emerging as a thunderous voice in Democratic politics, Matt Bai, a New York Times Magazine reporter, went to meet some of its 3m members. He was taken to a house party in Virginia. More than 1,000 such parties were being held that night in America, all organised by volunteers connected via MoveOn's website.

Mr Bai asked his host, Chuck, a prosperous ad man, what motivated him. Was it the Iraq war?

Or the fear that the Republicans might ban abortion? No, said Chuck, it was because he couldn't stand his Bush-supporting neighbours. “The rage just builds up inside me...I can't even go to parties around here anymore. I can't deal with it.” He had to do something. He considered peeing in a Republican neighbour's pool. Instead, he hosted a MoveOn party.
Mr Bai has stumbled on how the internet has transformed grassroots politics. It has allowed new groups of angry people—the most reliable footsoldiers of any political campaign—to find and talk to each other. The religious right has always been able to rally its troops through church pulpits and mailing lists. Now the anti-Bush left is doing something similar online. And most of the “netroots” (internet grassroots activists) are not, as you might imagine, tech-savvy 20-somethings. They tend to be like Chuck: middle-aged suburbanites alienated from their neighbours. “If college kids wanted to commiserate with someone over the fear and misery of life under Bush, all they had to do was walk across the hall,” notes Mr Bai. “For affluent boomers, there was MoveOn.”

His book is engaging and painstakingly reported. Mr Bai sets out to uncover the forces shaping the Democratic Party behind the scenes, both within and outside the party hierarchy.

He spends time with howling bloggers, billionaire donors and the politicians who try to accommodate their impossible demands. He is instinctively sympathetic to anyone on the anti-Bush team, but he can't help noticing what ghastly people some of them are.

He meets Hollywood luminaries who wail about being oppressed and disenfranchised, moneymen who think that money is everything and voters are morons, and bloggers who think that profanity is an adequate substitute for thought….


Source:

http://www.economist.com/books...=41972313



MoveOn Org

http://www.moveon.org/


Billionaire George Soros is one of the major supporters of MoveOn website.

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By the way, members of my family sold about 2 years ago an ethanol refinery that they had in the state of Sao Paulo to some foreign company.

Do you know why they sold it?

Sorry Mr. Amaral, it appears events have passed you by as usual. Just google "Brazil sovereign investment fund" and you will find Wall Street Journal discussion of Brazil having
accumulated enough reserves that it is considering starting its own sovereign investment fund. Apparently your scholarship is as vacuous as your economic analysis.

Conceicao said: “and you will find Wall Street Journal discussion of Brazil having
accumulated enough reserves that it is considering starting its own sovereign investment fund. Apparently your scholarship is as vacuous as your economic analysis.”

***

First, I don’t care about what the Wall Street said – I stop reading that newspaper many years ago, and now that Ruppert Murdock bought that newspaper very soon that newspaper would not be any better than “The Inquirer” that newspaper than woman buy at the supermarket to read about gossip. If you want to be well informed then you should read The Financial Times – UK.

Second, the Gulf States oil producing countries have accumulated over $ 1.6 trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves, and China has accumulated over $ 1.4 trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves.

It is pathetic that you want to include Brazil in the same list as these countries – Brazil has around $ 163 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves and Brazil has many uses for that money, but in today’s financial crisis prone international monetary system this level of foreign exchange reserves that Brazil is holding today can evaporate overnight
- it’s an amount barely sufficient to defend the real from a major international monetary crisis.


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You asked: “Do you know why they sold it?”

To invest in a better opportunity - to invest in real estate development in Brazil.

The smart money is always ahead of the herd.

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To invest in a better opportunity - to invest in real estate development in Brazil.

The smart money is always ahead of the herd.

Makes sense. Also coherent about our line of thoughts on the "Ethanol Project".

If you want to be well informed then you should read The Financial Times – UK.

Correct.

Also I read an interesting article and am pasting the link, in case you or the other readers have not read it already:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21338020/

As long as this fund does not ask me to pay more taxes, I guess it is alright to create it. However, I have the fear at the pit of my stomach, that the founding Fathers,Mothers ,Cunhados ,Cunhadas, etc; of this fund are going to DEMAND that the middle class Brazilians contribute to this bloody fund.

For those people who are opposing Mr.Amaral´s recommendation that U.S. maintains the current import duty on our ethanol, I suggest that they look at the picture posted along with the 4th part of this article. The cost of a liter of Ethanol at the gas pumps is 1.44 reais, though it costs 1.49 in our state. That is about 3 Dollars per one U.S gallon.The gasoline prices are unbelievable 2.49 Reais per liter and ya all can calculate how much it costs in terms of U.S dollars using the exchange rate of 1.81 Reais to a Dollar.

I am sorry to say but our friend Ric has been saying things very interesting and nobody paid any attention.

It is really pathetic to find ourselves as the saviours of the world with our strategy of "Alternative Fuel", producing ethanol on the lands where we can grow FOOD for OUR own citizens and the rest of the hungry world as suggested by Mr.Amaral.

What I sincerely hope is that we dont try to convince the Arabs that they buy our Ethanol instead of our FOOD products. It would be very similar to sell them the sand !

I am truly glad that you still contact me online Senor Joao da Silva,

The truth about China and it's generals are highly complicated to describe. The first language that I learn from them is Chinese. They find me so unpopular and the truth about meeting up with them the next time will only make me feel so uncomfortable. The best thing I should do is " Ni Hoa Ma?" or say "How are you?" In fact, my Director is also a Chinese. In fact before a friend of mine went to the UN the other day she was busy asking , "Home come he is not supervising the other diplomats, why some diplomats don't even have a sit while I was giving a speech?" Where is he now?????? It is just like working with an iron lady and all of us must stand tough. In fact Senor Martin might agrees with me. He went to the UN the last time to issue his case about human traffickers and the best thing that he could do is just sit quietly like a mouse just next to that Chinese lady................

Just for your info. Brazil enonomy is improving. In fact, Brazil is at number 4 with the rest of the great economy in the world today. As in my country Malaysia, our Prime Minister is aiming at Space Technology with the Russian Technology Minister. In fact the Russian Minister is looking forward to bring in the no. 2 Malaysian astronaut. I belief Brazil is first to establish it's space mission earlier than my country. I guess nobody should feel small or retarded. We are not so small after all.

sorry for the spelling mistakes

I hope everything is ok!

Just for your info,

In my country, it is truly difficult to become a diplomat. Our Prime Minister will choose only the best. As in my case, I manage to pass a government exam but it is not eligible for a title Her Excellency. Somehow many diplomats just like to tease me and call me Her Excellency............especially when they get into trouble with my Director.

There are few grades such as M41 (young diplomat)
41(government officer). Then I guess just like in Brazil the officers will have to take more and more exams...............
I am not sure for how long I will have to work in the diplomatic services. I am just a management science graduate. By right I should be working with the Science, Aerospace and Technology Department and at the same time liasing with the Russian Technology Minister. However, in the meantime I am working closely with a diplomatic institution especially for a third world country. For your info, my job is not confirmed yet by the government.

One way of the ethanol industry in Brazil to make a lot of money by using its know-how – it is by creating some new funds with international investors – a fund geared at developing the ethanol industry in the Caribbean Islands such as Haiti, Cuba and so on….

Today, Brazil has troops in Haiti to keep that country from collapsing into a civil war – about 80 percent of the Haitian population is unemployed, land values are very low for obvious reasons. But long ago these islands were prosperous and a perfect place to grow sugar cane – today with Brazilian ethanol know-how these lands can become once again a prosperous place.

If Brazil adopts a new ethanol strategy involving all these islands in the Caribbean that would be a win-win strategy not only for the Brazilian ethanol producers, but also for all the Caribbean islands that the new Brazilian fund would make these investments on. When Brazil’s ethanol know-how help lift the economies of many of these Caribbean islands and create jobs to thousands of people on these islands, in turn they will become customers and will have money to buy all kinds of Brazilian goods. It would be as if Brazil was creating a new market to sell its goods.

The more prosperity Brazil can bring to the people of these islands the better will be for all parties involved on this deal.

Brazil can move quickly on a plan regarding the Caribbean islands including Cuba and they can start implementing their plan as Fidel Castro still living since he is a friend of Lula. (The truth is the old man can die at any time from now on.)

These Islands in the Caribbean islands are closer to the US market – and ethanol probably could be produced on these islands at the lowest costs since land prices are very low in Haiti, and with 80 percent unemployment the wages of workers it would be very competitive. The new prosperity on these islands brought by this ethanol boom would develop the foundations for the development of other types of business related to the tourism trade. And all of that can be done through the investment funds created to develop a sound ethanol industry on these islands.

This concept it does not contradict my view about the ethanol industry in Brazil, since all these Caribbean islands are not being used properly today as it is the case with Haiti.

I am aware that Cuba is a large sugar producer. But they also can be an ethanol producer to fulfill the ethanol needs of the US market. (In my opinion the US embargo against Cuba will end before most people have realized. It is a silly embargo anyway.)

Very soon Cuba will present a great opportunity for investments – in tourism and so on. The time to construct the foundations in Cuba it is right now. Cuba also will offer a great opportunity for companies such as Petrobras to help Cuba develop its other energy industry.

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One way for the ethanol industry in Brazil to make a lot of money...

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In my opinion, it does not make sense for Brazil to start a sovereign investment fund,
since the best investment that the Brazilian government can make right now it is in Brazil.

Regarding the price of oil here in our area – which is an of the cheapest in the United States – a gallon of gas goes for US$ 2.60 and up – but the price that we are paying right now it does not reflect the latest increases on the price of oil, they are saying that the price of oil will increase by $ 0.20 in the next few days and in few months we should be paying way over US$ 3.00 per gallon in our area – in places such as California the gallon of oil will be over US$ 4.00 per gallon.

I drive a Volvo the larger sedan, and the tank holds only 12 gallons of gas – but every time I have to fill it up it is another US$ 36 dollars going up in smoke. Last summer I paid at one time $ 3.25 per gallon and the price of a barrel of oil was much lower than now.

Very soon the barrel of oil will reach the US$ 100 level – and that it will be damaging to a lot of economies around the world, including many Latin American countries.

A lot people has not realized as yet the massive changes that we have had on the weather, just about everywhere – the weather is going crazy with major droughts in all the Continents (excluding the ones under ice) and the Hurricanes and Typhoons are not only more frequent by with a power as never seen before. Two months ago one of the Category 5 hurricanes that we had in the Caribbean achieved a new record – since they started studying hurricanes never before they had seen a hurricane developing from a small storm into a Category 5 in about 48 hours.

All you have to do is watch the international news and you are able to see how the weather is going crazy around the world.

As I mentioned on my article the entire ball game is changing very rapidly you can say that it is because of Global Warming or something else – it does not matter what you call it – and in the coming years most food exporting countries will have to reevaluate its position regarding the availability of freshwater, and so on.

Brazil it will be in an unique position on that regard and the potential to keep its agriculture business functioning is very good when compared with the other major food exporter from around the world.

With this major crisis in the making regarding food production to feed as many people as possible – In my opinion it will be immoral to use all the fertile lands in Brazil to feed automobile engines instead.

I am talking about use the land to develop ethanol for the export market. It is OK for Brazil to use the ethanol to free the Brazilian domestic market from a dependence of imported oil. I am in favor to keep the Brazilian market isolated from the shocks of the price of oil on the world market.

Let say one more thing here because I know people like Conceicao needs some further explanation. When these food shortages develop around the world in the coming years the price of all the food items for the export market will increase in price – it is a simple economic concept of high demand and shortage in the supply side push the price up.

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Let me tell you one quick story before we move to some other subject.

A very good friend of mine, and his family had a very large industrial farm in Texas – they had been growing corn for many years. Last year I told him again and again it is time to sell your family’s corn farm and cash in and get the highest price that you can get right now – and take advantage of the opportunity regarding these suckers that are coming to you with a bunch of cash. (A hedge fund – the bandwagon crowd)

I bothered him so many times regarding this subject when we met that I think that slowly he realized it was time to cash in - and finally in the beginning of this year he told me that his family had decided to sell the farm and the deal was going to be closed any day.

Finally in early May after many delays they close the deal and they sold the farm to some hedge fund. His timing was perfect since right after they had closed the deal the troubles started on Wall Street.

My friend got top dollar for his business and he is laughing all the way to the bank.

The reality is right now there are a lot of people working to resolve this energy crisis – and I would not be surprised if someone makes a major breakthrough in that area.

The United States still has a lot of brilliant scientists around.

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Thanks for bringing the article to my attention Joao – it is a very good article about China - it is worth quoting part of the article right here.

***

“Immigrants chase the Chinese dream”
More emigrants heading East in search of safety, tolerance and opportunity
By Ariana Eunjung Cha
The Washington Post
Oct 20, 2007

YIWU, China - For more than three years, Khaled Rasheed and his family spent the nights huddled in fear as bombs exploded near their home in Baghdad. Like generations of would-be emigrants before him, he dreamed of a better life elsewhere. But where?
Finding a place that was safe was Rasheed's top priority, but openness to Islam and bright business prospects were also important.

It wasn't long before he settled on a place that had everything he was looking for: China.
For a growing number of the world's emigrants, China -- not the United States -- is the land where opportunities are endless, individual enterprise is rewarded and tolerance is universal.

"In China, life is good for us. For the first time in a long time, my whole family is very happy," said Rasheed, 50, who in February moved with his wife and five children to Yiwu, a trading city about four hours south of Shanghai.

While China doesn't officially encourage immigration, it has made it increasingly easy -- especially for businesspeople or those with entrepreneurial dreams and the cash to back them up -- to get long-term visas. Usually, all it takes is getting an invitation letter from a local company or paying a broker $500 to write one for you.

There are now more than 450,000 people in China with one- to five-year renewable residence permits, almost double the 230,000 who had such permits in 2003. An additional 700 foreigners carry the highly coveted green cards introduced under a system that went into effect in 2004.

Ethnic enclaves sprout anew

China's openness to foreigners is evident in the reemergence of ethnic enclaves, a phenomenon that hasn't been seen since the Communist Party came to power in 1949. Larger and more permanent than those frequented by expatriate businessmen on temporary assignment, the new enclaves evoke pre-revolutionary China, where cities such as Shanghai bustled with concessions dominated by French, British and Japanese.

The Wangjing area of northern Beijing is a massive Koreatown, complete with groceries, schools, churches, karaoke bars and its own daily newspapers. A few miles away, in the city's Ritan Park, signs in Cyrillic script and vendors speaking Russian welcome people from the former Soviet republics. In Yiwu, a city in the eastern province of Zhejiang that is the home of the world's largest wholesale market, "Exotic Street" lights up at night with stands filled with smoking kebabs, colorful hookahs and strong sugared tea for the almost exclusively Arab clientele….

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Reply to Ric
written by Ricardo Amaral, 2007-10-20 18:18:31
I have never been in Belo Horizonte. But it seems to me that 50 percent of all Brazilian immigrants here in the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut Metropolitan area came from Minas Gerais. It is estimated that there are over 500 thousand Brazilians living in the our
try-state area.

try-state?


Missouri?


Sorry, that's the "show me" state.

it is a simple economic concept of high demand and shortage in the supply side push the price up.


It is equally axiomatic that when there is increased price there is increased production. it becomes profitable for what otherwise would be marginal sources of production to come on line. Brazil's capacity for production has hardly been realized.

The only manifest problem with this paradigm of an idealized Brazilian agricultural endgame is that such a paradigm fails to provide meaningful employment. What it may do is provide the capital for an educational renaissance. Without such a renaissance there is no possibility of increasing Brazil's capacity for industrialization and its consequential boon to employment. Agriculture cannot and will not be the end all and be all of Brazil's problems of fulfilling the promise of the masses of its population.

The United States still has a lot of brilliant scientists around.

They will continue producing more and more Scientists of this kind, while we will be killing the good ones we still have. Believe me when I say it, for I do not make light statements on such issues.

It should be tri-state.

I noticed a number of errors on my last postings - I just wrote the stuff and posted without checking out for possible errors.

Sorry, I am getting a bit sloppy with my postings.

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Without such a renaissance there is no possibility of increasing Brazil's capacity for industrialization and its consequential boon to employment.

This renaissance is going to take a long time to occur, my friend. Remember the old proverb "Ignorance is a bliss".

Sorry, I am getting a bit sloppy with my postings.

No need to apologise. Our good friend Forrest would have given a different kind of answer to Bo!

Bo, would you mind explaining to our distinguished bloggers why the state of Missouri is called as "show me" state by the artisocratic West Virginians ?

Angelinajolie, thanks for your comments, but I am in no way criticizing Brasil or Brasilians. My point is that Brasil needs export profits to develop more quickly, i.e.,
something more like the Malaysian model.

Willard Duncan Vandiver, who served in the United States House of Representatives from 1897 to 1903. While a member of the U.S. House Committee on Naval Affairs, Vandiver attended an 1899 naval banquet in Philadelphia. In a speech there, he declared, "I come from a state that raises corn and cotton and c**kleburs and Democrats, and frothy eloquence neither convinces nor satisfies me. I am from Missouri. You have got to show me." Regardless of whether Vandiver coined the phrase, it is certain that his speech helped to popularize the saying.

Other versions of the "Show-Me" legend place the slogan's origin in the mining town of Leadville, Colorado. There, the phrase was first employed as a term of ridicule and reproach. A miner's strike had been in progress for some time in the mid-1890s, and a number of miners from the lead districts of southwest Missouri had been imported to take the places of the strikers. The Joplin miners were unfamiliar with Colorado mining methods and required frequent instructions. Pit bosses began saying, "That man is from Missouri. You'll have to show him."

However the slogan originated, it has since passed into a different meaning entirely, and is now used to indicate the stalwart, conservative, noncredulous character of Missourians.

Resources:
Rossiter, Phyllis. "I'm from Missouri--you'll have to show me." Rural Missouri, Volume 42, Number 3, March 1989, page 16.

That’s why I mentioned on my posting what happened to farming here in the United States in the last 100 years. That area of the economy employed 70 percent of the population 100 years ago, and today there is a little over 2 percent of the US population working on jobs related to agriculture.

Industrial farming is a very mechanized type of business today and these industrial farms don’t employ too many people.

My economic development plan for Brazil boils down to a single connection – investment capital from China to develop the various areas that I mentioned of the Brazilian economy – a plan that would create millions of good paying jobs in Brazil – in exchange for some kind of “Social contract” with China that Brazil will be a stable and constant source of food supply to help feed the massive Chinese population.

Keep in mind: starving people can get out of control, they can riot, create bloodshed for the rest of the world to watch it on the 24/7 news cycle on television, and they even can start a revolution or civil war.

My plan is a win-win situation for China and also for Brazil.

I am aware of what happened in Brazil in the last 35 years regarding the transformation that Brazil went through regarding its agriculture area.

In the early seventies when the farming system started to become mechanized in Brazil the new way of farming displaced a few million peasants in the farming areas of Brazil in a very short period of time.

Then someone came up with an idea - a quick fix – and we are paying the price of that quick fix up to today.

The government came up with a program to give a fresh start for many of this people in the Amazon area of Brazil. They told this poor people if you get to the North of Brazil the government would provide you a small piece of land and would help them get started on this new location.

When they created that plan the Brazilian government was estimating that about 500,000 people would manage to get to the North of Brazil to claim their piece of land.

For everybody’s surprise about 5 million people showed up to make their claim. But nobody in the government took the time first to test if all that land was good for agriculture, and the rest is history.

Turned out that the environment in that area was not good for agriculture, and all these people started the vicious cycle of moving around to a new piece of land every few years.
The original 5 million people from the 1970’s multiplied over the years and today we might have 20 million people going through that cycle. The world want that all these peasants stop burning the Amazons, but the question is: what to do with all these people?

Where should they go? What kind of jobs they can find somewhere else?

Who has the answer to solve this massive problem?

Most of the time the quick fix of today might snow ball into the massive problem of the future.

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Mr. Amaral's discourse on the potential benefits of Brasilian ethanol technology transfer to the Caribbean (ex-Cuba) are 100% correct in my opinion. The problem of course is
the U.S. tariff and related restrictions on ethanol imports. Very interesting to me that so little has been accomplished in terms of bringing on Caribbean ethanol production,
despite the limited access to the U.S. market allowed under the Caribbean trade agreements. The situation probably speaks to the sophistication of the Brasilian technology, the
scale required to produce the product at a cost below that of gasoline, and the distrust among potential producers that ant window to the U.S. market. I would love to see the
Brasilian sovereign investment fund buy up 10% of Archer Daniels Midland stock and then demand a seat on the board. Could be a good first step toward developing an ethanol
policy for the hemisphere that makes sense for everyone.

Instead of pointing out that the Chinese have lots of currency reserves and Brasil has lots of agricultural potential and trying to match the two, why not observe the manner in which China accumulated the reserves, i.e. exports, and try to adapt the model to Brasilian reality and focus on exporting agricultural goods. Agriculture is Brasil's primary area of comparative advantage. You can get capital from a broad number of sources. Why sell Brasil's crown jewel to a country that has a far inferior - as measured by per capita GDP -
record of achievement that Brasil's own?

Instead of pointing out that the Chinese have lots of currency reserves and Brasil has lots of agricultural potential and trying to match the two, why not observe the manner in which China accumulated the reserves, i.e. exports, and try to adapt the model to Brasilian reality and focus on exporting agricultural goods. Agriculture is Brasil's primary area of comparative advantage. You can get capital from a broad number of sources.

Mr.Amaral´s line of thoughts is just like ours. I can almost read his mind!

You can get capital from a broad number of sources

A very Good question. I will let Mr.Amaral respond!!

Btw, I dont approve of his project of bullet train between Rio and SP. Let the jet set crowd from Rio can finance it

Willard Duncan Vandiver, who served in the United States House of Representatives from 1897 to 1903. While a member of the U.S. House Committee on Naval Affairs, Vandiver attended an 1899 naval banquet in Philadelphia. In a speech there, he declared, "I come from a state that raises corn and cotton and c**kleburs and Democrats, and frothy eloquence neither convinces nor satisfies me. I am from Missouri. You have got to show me." Regardless of whether Vandiver coined the phrase, it is certain that his speech helped to popularize the saying.

Thanks AES for your clarifications. Probably Vandiver was Van Diver and of Dutch descent! I think he said the right thing in the banquet and I liked it. It coincides with my way of thinking. If nobody in a meeting likes what I propse, I say "Great, then show me your way,how we could accomplish the goal". I have found that in general the response is a pin drop silence!!

Ricardo, I would like you to read the article of Senator Chris Buarque titled "Emperor Dom Pedro's Nightmare: Brazil Has Frozen in Time", he published in this magazine today.

And come out with some comments.CB gives me an impresion that he isquite frustrated. Lets see how we can wake him off his slumber!

China's export activity is 36.6% of their GDP. 21% of thoise exports go to the USA.

The bursting of the Housing Bubble in the USA will almost certainly pop the Asian Bubble as well. Hang on for the ride.

Or not, if you disagree.

AES was correct in his answer...there's also another version.

Other versions of the "Show-Me" legend place the slogan's origin in the mining town of Leadville, Colorado. There, the phrase was first employed as a term of ridicule and reproach. A miner's strike had been in progress for some time in the mid-1890s, and a number of miners from the lead districts of southwest Missouri had been imported to take the places of the strikers. The Joplin miners were unfamiliar with Colorado mining methods and required frequent instructions. Pit bosses began saying, "That man is from Missouri. You'll have to show him."

Capital Cities & Nicknames
AlabamaMontgomeryYellowhammer State
AlaskaJuneauThe Last Frontier
ArizonaPhoenixThe Grand Canyon State
ArkansasLittle RockThe Natural State
CaliforniaSacramentoThe Golden State
ColoradoDenverThe Centennial State
ConnecticutHartfordThe Constitution State
DelawareDoverThe First State
FloridaTallahasseeThe Sunshine State
GeorgiaAtlantaThe Peach State
HawaiiHonoluluThe Aloha State
IdahoBoiseThe Gem State
IllinoisSpringfieldPrairie State
IndianaIndianapolisThe Hoosier State
IowaDes MoinesThe Hawkeye State
KansasTopekaThe Sunflower State
KentuckyFrankfortThe Bluegrass State
LouisianaBaton RougeThe Pelican State
MaineAugustaThe Pine Tree State
MarylandAnnapolisThe Old Line State
MassachusettsBostonThe Bay State
MichiganLansingThe Great Lakes State
MinnesotaSt. PaulThe North Star State
MississippiJacksonThe Magnolia State
MissouriJefferson CityThe Show Me State
MontanaHelenaThe Treasure State
NebraskaLincolnThe Cornhusker State
NevadaCarson CityThe Silver State
New Hampshire ConcordThe Granite State
New JerseyTrentonThe Garden State
New MexicoSanta FeThe Land of Enchantment
New YorkAlbanyThe Empire State
North CarolinaRaleighThe Tar Heel State
North DakotaBismarckThe Peace Garden State
OhioColumbusThe Buckeye State
OklahomaOklahoma City The Sooner State
OregonSalemThe Beaver State
PennsylvaniaHarrisburgThe Keystone State
Rhode IslandProvidenceThe Ocean State
South CarolinaColumbiaThe Palmetto State
South DakotaPierreMount Rushmore State
TennesseeNashvilleThe Volunteer State
TexasAustinThe Lone Star State
UtahSalt Lake CityThe Beehive State
VermontMontpelierThe Green Mountain State
VirginiaRichmondThe Old Dominion State
WashingtonOlympiaThe Evergreen State
West VirginiaCharlestonThe Mountain State
WisconsinMadisonThe Badger State
WyomingCheyenneThe Equality or Cowboy State

I want to make one thing very clear about my suggestion that the China Sovereignty Fund invest in Brazil $ 200 billion dollars over a period of years.

All the new Chinese investment money on this plan would be for new investments in the areas that I indicated on my article. I am not suggesting in any way or form that China should start buying the major corporations already existent and very successful in Brazil such as Embraer, Vale do Rio Doce, Petrobras and many others.

If that happened it would be a major mistake by the Brazilian government to let foreigners to take control of the best companies operating in Brazil.


******


Today China it does not need an army to weaken and beat the United States as some TV broadcasting talking heads suggest all the time almost in a frenzy and they claim that this time around the Communist Chinese are coming.

What they have not realized as yet is that the Chinese already have the United States by the balls since the Chinese have been extending unlimited credit to Americans to support their trivial spending.

The US is trillions of dollars in debt and they have nothing to show for all this massive accumulating debt (death).

I guess the word debt and death can be used interchangeably in this context – meaning slow death.

The Chinese have already learned that the best way to dismantle the US capitalist system it is from the inside and a year ago China bought a US$ 3 billion stake in the Blackstone Group – a private equity firm in the US.

Following in the same path and strategy right now China's CITIC Securities have agreed to invest $ 1 billion dollars on Bear Stearns, the US investment bank battered by slumping mortgage markets in the US.

There’s no better strategy for the Chinese to take the US economic machine apart than to invest on these types of companies.

Private equity companies are like parasites making their money and living by buying companies and striping them from any assets that are worth anything them flipping the carcass over back into the market.

Or they buy companies and merge them, take big fees for the fiasco, raid their pension funds, lay-off people and after all the damage is done they flip these once healthy companies back into the market.

Basically these private equity firms are bottom feeders, and predators and very rarely they create real value or companies healthy companies that would grow and provide new jobs for the US population.

If the Chinese play their cards right - the right investment in the right private equity firm in the US can be a great investment from the Chinese point of view since these private equity companies would help weaken the companies operating in a certain area – probably that is the cheapest way for the Chinese to eliminate the competition here in the US on areas that they want to expand in China - and at the same time they can make a lot of money through these predators here in the US.

The more money the Chinese invest in the United States on these private equity firms and also in many hedge funds – the faster they can undermine the entire economic structure of the US economy since these guys operate by laying-off people, by transferring America jobs overseas, by raiding their pension funds, by eliminating many of benefits that Americans used to have, and so on.

The guys in Wall Street would sell even their mothers to make a quick buck, never mind the future of the country.

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Joao said: “Btw, I don’t approve of his project of bullet train between Rio and SP. Let the jet set crowd from Rio can finance it.”

That would be great to develop the international tourism to that entire coast area.
That would be the best area to install these bullet trains because not only the coast in magnificent and spectacular, but a bullet train would simplify the inflow of international tourists when there are bullet train connections to the major international airports in Brazil in Sao Paulo to Rio de Janeiro and all the coast areas.

That entire coast area can become a future French Riviera of Brazil creating great job opportunities for the Brazilian population – jobs related to the tourism trade.

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The US is trillions of dollars in debt and they have nothing to show for all this massive accumulating debt (death).

Come on now...nothing? That's certainly not accurate. I can think of at least 14 permanent military bases in a strategic part of the world. The U.S. hasn't been making decisions based on "today" for a long time. They make decisions based on 50 years and more from today.

Before some people come to the conclusion that I am anti-capitalist let me clarify for them where I stand.

The venture capitalists are the group that invest in the future of the country by taking risks and investing in start-ups, or in new companies that are showing great prospects for the future.

The venture capitalists deserve all the money that they make since they invest in the future of the country, in the new technologies, and usually many of these companies are the engines that provide most of the new jobs for the economy.

The venture capitalists are my kind of people and I admire that group, and at the same time I have complete contempt for the predators and bottom feeders.


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You said: “Come on now...nothing? That's certainly not accurate. I can think of at least 14 permanent military bases in a strategic part of the world. The U.S. hasn't been making decisions based on "today" for a long time. They make decisions based on 50 years and more from today.”


The world is too big and very complex only fools would think that they could dominate the world by force.

The US is pissing a ton of money away to fight the last war. That world is dying very fast and the meantime the rest of the world is investing in the future.

The reality is today the United States is not even in the position of keeping up with a new arms race with the Chinese and the Soviet Union since these countries have a ton of money today. On the other hand the United States has an army that is having all kinds of problems fighting even a small group of people in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The entire war machine of the United States is being destroyed in Iraq because of heat and sand storms – these weather events are destroying the helicopters, the tanks, the trucks, the airplanes and anything that comes in contact with the very high heat and the sand storms. By the way, sand and machinery don’t mix too well – never mind the high heat.

The next big war it will be fought from space anyway with missiles being shot at targets here on earth from satellites that would be moving around the earth and could hit any target that they want.

If the Chinese and Russians wanted to start a new arms race with the United States – then please tell me who is going to finance the US side of that race since the US is already $ 10 trillion dollars in debt and the US has a massive amount of baby boomers who will grab any type of money available in the US economy to finance their needs related to Social Security, Medicare, pensions, and so on…. And the senior citizens are a powerful group who vote and they can keep things going their way in the US.

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Ricardo,
You are obviously (1) a right-wing fascist, (2) a narrow-minded nationalist, and (3) seriously deluded. (1) A right-wing fascist is someone who supports government-managed capitalism ("dirigismo" of the Mussolini-Getulio type - this is fascism) and thinks an authoritarian government is required to do the managing (thus your praise of the right-wing Brazilian generals). (2) A narrow-minded nationalist is someone who is so fanatical about what they think is good for their country (in your case, you believe in right-wing fascism) that they loose all sense of proportion. This is reflected your obsequious portrayal of China (no doubt you love their authoritarianism too) and in the anti-US diatribes that you have posted in the comments section, both of which are obviously motivated by anti-American paranoia which is one of the prime traits of the Brazilian ultra-nationalist. Anyone with a college education who thinks that your proposed Brazil-China pact has any chance in hell of becoming a reality has to allowed his emotions to seriously cloud his judgement.

Do you not think that in 1989 the U.S. did not decide the current fate of China? That the democratization of China was a choice to control the direction of China? For example the favored nation status that was afforded to China, that allowed China to export goods into the U.S. essentially duty free? Did that not create the carrot, in the metaphor of the carrot and the stick inorder to influence China's global behavior? That a society that has private capital to lose begins to listen to that capital and the political and economic requirements of that capital? China in the past 17 years continues to behave militarily, plotting, stealing state secrets, ie. space technologies that allowed China to develop its rocket science. But China has begun temper its behavior, to soften its behavior to the rhythm of market commerce. China's currency is artificially undervalued. The playing field will and must be made level. The time for babying China is past. Pacification continues, but it is reaching endgame. When China begins to be forced to pay its citizens a GDP Per Capita income that is commencerate with its economic activity, the amount of its reserve advantage must by consequence be reduced. When Chinese goods begin to enter the global market priced at parity with European goods or American goods China will be brought to heal by its own choices. What paid for WWII? Bonds. And if it is required by war, taxes will be raised, bonds will be floated, protective tarrifs will be raised, and the draft will be reinstated and the whole country, not 1% of the country will be at war. Those are arrows in the eagles talons of the great seal as well as well as the olive branch. If there is no duty, country honor; there can be no country. If the individuals rights do not include the maintenance of those rights there will be no individual rights. The price of Freedom is the requisite price of service. Never underestimate what the U.S. can do or what it will do; the U.S. will do what it needs to do. The U.S. has helped China help itself. This is beyond their conception. You do not help an adversary. You do not help competition. Logic dictates. America is a Christian country. It's philosophy is the brotherhood of man. The individual's right come from the rights of all men, not just the rights of the Chinese. The Chinese believe in the rights of the Chinese not the rights of man. Ask the Dalai Lama he surely knows.

All the new Chinese investment money on this plan would be for new investments in the areas that I indicated on my article. I am not suggesting in any way or form that China should start buying the major corporations already existent and very successful in Brazil such as Embraer, Vale do Rio Doce, Petrobras and many others.

If that happened it would be a major mistake by the Brazilian government to let foreigners to take control of the best companies operating in Brazil.

Ricardo,I am afraid that you have not been keeping track of what is happening in Brazil for the past decade.One reason I asked you about the degree of your comprehension of written Portuguses you have been living in U.S for years and in spite of it, I thought you would be reading the on line newspapers from Brasil. Never mind.

EMBRAER and CVRD are no longer owned by the government. They along with TELEBRAS were sold off to foreigners during the mandates of FHC. All for less than their real market values.The story of TELEBRAS is more pathetic and its brand name ceased to exist a long time ago. Considering that Petrobras, Banco do Brasil and CEF are cash cows, it is a question of time before they are sold to investors from overseas. If the Chinese have enough money to buy any of these state owned entities, I dont think that the government is going to stop the sales!

Private equity companies are like parasites making their money and living by buying companies and striping them from any assets that are worth anything them flipping the carcass over back into the market.

Or they buy companies and merge them, take big fees for the fiasco, raid their pension funds, lay-off people and after all the damage is done they flip these once healthy companies back into the market.

Basically these private equity firms are bottom feeders, and predators and very rarely they create real value or companies healthy companies that would grow and provide new jobs for the US population.

The same thing is happening in this country and if you keep track of the news from Brazilian On line newspapers, you will not see any difference. Btw, all the privatized companies threw lots of people on the street. One tendency I have been noticing is for the government to get creat regulatory agencies to write laws to regulate (or restrict) the entry foreign capital to build the infrastructure such as roads,airports,ports, etc;.These agencies are creating jobs for the Brazilians, espcially for lawyers and the politcal appointees and many of these agencies do not even know how to regulate themselve,the glaring recent example being ANAC.Some months ago, I was reading an article in a National magazine that was talking about the government jobs becoming attractive again for the Brasilians.FYI, the fresh lawyers are the best paid ones and the engineers the least.

Continues,because the web site scolded me for my comments being too long!

That would be great to develop the international tourism to that entire coast area.
That would be the best area to install these bullet trains because not only the coast in magnificent and spectacular, but a bullet train would simplify the inflow of international tourists when there are bullet train connections to the major international airports in Brazil in Sao Paulo to Rio de Janeiro and all the coast areas.

Ricardo, theoretically your idea sounds good to me about bullet trains to attract International Tourism. Sometime ago, there was some talk about Japanese investors interested in this project. Nothing was heard of since then. Also do you honestly believe that the International tourists will be interested in taking the "Bullet Trains" right in the midst of "Bullet Rains"? Besides, I consider laying rail tracks to transport goods and people from the interior of the country as a priority.

The venture capitalists are the group that invest in the future of the country by taking risks and investing in start-ups, or in new companies that are showing great prospects for the future.

The venture capitalists deserve all the money that they make since they invest in the future of the country, in the new technologies, and usually many of these companies are the engines that provide most of the new jobs for the economy.

I have no argument about it. Unfortunately, no rich Brasilian is going to venture his capital in the projects you have proposed in your article, not because they are not good for Brasil,but due to the fact that Brasil is a rudderless ship at this moment.

I have read the comments made by Bo and you about the U.S. I asked you if you have read the book "The Bear and the Dragon" by Tom Clancey. You are very good in International Economics and I am sure you did very well in your MBA too.It is worth getting more interested in Geopolitics also! As you rightly said in one of your comments, the world is changing so fast that it is difficult to predict what is going to happen next year-unless a nation plans for 50 or more years (quoting Bo). At the time of your ancestor, Bonifacio, it was more time consuming, though.

Ask the Dalai Lama he surely knows.

That was a good one AES! If I may be allowed to modify your sentence, it would be "Ask Dalai Lama and the Buddist monks in Burma . They surely know, provided they are permitted to say in public."

Joao said: “Ricardo,I am afraid that you have not been keeping track of what is happening in Brazil for the past decade.One reason I asked you about the degree of your comprehension of written Portuguses you have been living in U.S for years and in spite of it, I thought you would be reading the on line newspapers from Brasil. Never mind.”

Yes I am aware that many of these companies have been privatized. It is OK if the privatized companies are in the hands of Brazilians such pension funds and so forth.
What I am trying to say is that the Brazilian government should block the transfer of certain Brazilian assets into foreign hands. In the same way the United States blocked the sale of Unical to China, and the control of various ports in the US to the United Arab Emirates government.

The government should study up to what percentage of a major company it’s acceptable to be on foreigner hands regarding certain strategic industries in Brazil including the shares of major banks and insurance companies, and so on….

Joao also said: “It is worth getting more interested in Geopolitics also!”

If you read many of my articles you would realize that I wrote enough about the Middle East including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and also about China, Angola and so on….
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Joao said: “You are very good in International Economics and I am sure you did very well in your MBA too.”

Yes, I did very well in College and in graduate school and I was a straight A student on my major – economics.

But here is one of the places where I got a very valuable education.

In the early 1970's when I was a very young man, I was lucky to work for a few years at Templeton, Dobrow and Vance in Englewood, NJ. I had a great time during those years, and I used to hang around and go to lunch on a daily basis with a bunch of old investment advisors. Some of these men had been working as financial analysts for Sir John Templeton for over 25 years at that time.

In case you don't know whom I am talking about; Sir John Templeton is a legend in Wall Street, he is a "Master" in the field of investments, and there are only a hand full of people that are in the same league as Mr. Templeton such as Warren Buffet, George Soros, and very few other people.

I was studying for a B.A. in economics at the time, and every Monday we had a meeting to discuss what was happening in the stock market, and the strategy for that week. The meetings usually lasted most of the morning, and we had guest speakers from Wall Street on a regular basis.

I used to stay in the office after hours discussing about stocks with some of the other investment counselors. One of the old analysts became my very good friend, and we spent hours and hours in the research library going through the files of companies. These files had all kind of information about most companies, from annual reports, newspaper clippings, to quarterly reports, 10-Q, etc, etc.

After working very close for over 25 years with Mr. Templeton, my friend learned a lot about how Mr. Templeton did his analysis, his philosophy, and his way of looking at investments.

I learned a lot from my old friend, and also from many of the investment counselors and after Mr. Templeton sold that company and moved to the Bahamas, I had the pleasure to meet him in Englewood, and in New York City a number of times over the years.

Mr. Templeton is the smartest man that I had the pleasure to meet in my entire life. It was a privilege to have the chance to meet and work for such a person. Mr. Templeton is an outstanding man in every sense.


.

" And if a business is not ethical, he added, "it will fail, perhaps not right away, but eventually."

And what of a nation? And what of a people? And what of Brazil? Templeton seems merely an economic opportunist contributing to humanity later rather than earlier in his life. As Templeton realizes, the raison d'etre of man is the giving. But for the majority of Templeton's life he was engaged in the meaningless acquisition of wealth, no matter how intelligently he did it. It is only the good you do that has any meaning, and thus Templeton arrives mieux vaut tard que jamais to this proposition. But what has Templeton done to change the course of man with all his billions. He gerously gives millions. That is not generosity it is comparitive niggardliness. Templeton has been part of the problem and is only now part of the solution, no matter how parsimonious. What are the works of Templeton's life, no matter how smartly arrived at. Wall Street are an eternal band of thieves, profiting off the ignorance of others, instead of teaching he has practiced the art of opportunism, crass personal aggrandisement. Instead of enlightening men he pocketed from their ignorance. What profits a man if he gains the world and loses his soul. So he came to realize this and established a philanthropic foundation, it is merely a start to an atonement. He knows how to make a profit, he knows now that the path to god is not achieved through profit, but through charity.

AES: “If the individuals rights do not include the maintenance of those rights there will be no individual rights.”


I hate to be blunt with you but the reality is everything that is in over supply losses its value including human beings.

I remember seen a program about Mother Teresa and Calcutta, India many years ago on television – that program was a study on extreme poverty and there is only one thing about that program that stayed with me all these years – I realized that an over supply of human beings devalue the worth of each individual person.

Some people were starving or sick and there was no help for them and many homeless people just died on the sidewalks. When these poor people died their bodies stayed on the sidewalk sometimes for an entire week until the wagon passed around to collect the dead people. Then they showed when the wagon came and there were a pile of bodies on top of it – the bodies that they had been collecting around town just on that day.

That kind showed me the reality of over-population. The value of human life diminishes as a country increases its over-population.

Human rights is a beautiful concept and civilized countries should adopt and practice it – but I am aware that when you have an over supply of people then you can’t use such a concept because it can’t be practiced in reality – for example in countries such as India and China.

The concept of human rights as we understand it would go down the toilet in no time in the United States if the US had a population of 1.3 million people.

In a country such as India and China it does not matter if 100 million people dies for any reason – that is a drop in the bucket compared with their massive population.

Just how little it took for the United States to forget the concept of human rights – it took only a handful of fanatic guys armed with box cutters and some clever plan – and the over-reaction of the United States – today they can wiretap peoples telephone conversations, spy on their emails, They made a regular practice of rendition; kidnapping people and shipping them off to a third world country for interrogation and they torture these people to get information from them.

The United States has 2.2 million people in prison today – that is a lot more people than the population of many countries.

And here we are talking about the United States a country that is a champion in the fight for human rights around the world – at least on paper. And the US has only 300 million people can you imagine what the US would be doing if the US had 1.3 billion people?


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The first time I realized how devastating Alzheimer’s can be happened about 10 years ago when I went to a party of a friend of mine who was turning 90 years old.

This friend of mine I met him when both of us were working for John Templeton’s company in the early 1970’s – my friend had been a financial analyst for John Templeton for the last 25 years – that was before John Templeton moved to the Bahamas and his mutual fund empire was moved to Florida.

John Templeton’s company had been located in Englewood, NJ for a long time – and Mr. Templeton was the president, and Colonel Donald Liddell was the chairman of the board.

At that time I had just started going to college, but for some reason these old guys invited me to go to lunch with them almost on a daily basis – there were 5 or 6 of them and they were financial analysts or investment counselors – all of them had graduated from Princeton or Yale University and my friend had graduated with an engineering degree from Cornell University. These guys were a bunch of very smart fellows and all of them were millionaires. But for some reason that group did not mind that a 19-year-old kid tagged along for lunch with them almost on a daily basis.

But the person that I want to mention is Colonel Liddell (people called him colonel Liddell because he had been a colonel in the US army during World War II) – Colonel Liddell was a brilliant investment counselor and he did handle the investment account of many famous people at that time – Colonel Liddell also was in the board of directors of close to 50 different companies. He was one of the closest friends of Mr. John Templeton, and he used to go on a regular basis and spend his vacation with Mr. Templeton on his Bahamas mansion.

But what I remember the most about Colonel Liddell was his sense and practice of ethics and integrity, because today it is rare to find people in the investment world with that same high standard of ethics and integrity of people such as Colonel Liddell and also John Templeton.

Here is a lesson from Colonel Liddell to the new Wall Street generation: Colonel Liddell had a major investment in a bank here in New Jersey and he also was a member of the board of directors of that bank – and over the years he invested the money of many of the clients that he handled their investment account on the stock of that bank – and over the years his clients did very well with their investments.

But in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s that bank started having financial problems and the stock started declining accordingly. Here comes the ultimate lesson in ethics and integrity: Colonel Liddell wrote a memo and he sent it to all his accounts saying that the bank had financial problems and that Colonel Liddell was going to sell his financial position on that bank – but before he did that he wanted to give a chance for all the people who he had invested their money in that stock for them to get out of that stock before he sold his position.

By doing that Colonel Liddell lost a few extra million dollars of his own money, but he felt the obligation to let the other people sell their stock positions before he sold his.
Since then when hear anyone talking about honesty, ethics and integrity the first name that comes to mind is the name of Colonel Donald Liddell, because he did practice these virtues on his daily life and he became that symbol to me.

.

Going back to that party 10 years ago for my friend from Templeton days when I saw Colonel Liddell at that party I got all excited in seeing him after 20 years, and I went to speak to him and I said: How are you Colonel Liddell do you remember me?

I assumed that he would remember me since over the years when I worked for Mr. Templeton I had had lunch with him and the other guys at least 200 times during that period.

Mr. Liddell looked at me and said: “my house has big rooms.” I said: I am sure your house has big rooms, since you live in a mansion, but don’t you remember me from the time when I worked at Templeton in the early 1970”s?

Mr. Liddell told me once more: “ my house has big rooms and I go to the park.”

At that point his wife saw me talking to Colonel Liddell and she told me that he had an advanced stage of Alzeimer’s. She also told me that they still had their mansion in Englewood, NJ, but they were staying for long periods at their apartment in Manhattan by the Central Park – and yes his nurse used to take him for a walk on Central Park.

I was shocked that day and could not believe how such a smart man - Mr. Liddell was a brilliant man - could end up like that.

When I walked to see Colonel Liddell I expected him to remember me from 20 years ago – but the reality was at that point he could not remember even his own name. About 2 years later I heard that Colonel Liddell had passed away.

Alzheimer’s is a devastating disease for family and friends – and not in a million years I ever expected to see Colonel Liddell in that state of mind.

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60 percent of sentenced inmates incarcerated. in facilities it operates went to prison for drug-related offenses ...

Decriminalize drugs and you cut the incarcerated to 700,000. The problem are laws that have no victims.

"today they can wiretap peoples telephone conversations, spy on their emails, They made a regular practice of rendition; kidnapping people and shipping them off to a third world country for interrogation and they torture these people to get information from them."

So what do you have to hide. You probably have nothing to fear of water boarding. If you cannot trust the military and the police who can you trust? It is the paranoid that fails to include themselves in the us in the 'them and us'. They do not trust belonging, they have no faith in a just government. If you think your appraisal is of more use than that which is currently being employed then become part of the defense, stop criticising what you only presume to know. What is your security clearance? How can you form an opinion without information. You are on the outside looking in. There is no absolute to justice, it is more often a function of money. There are more lawyers to represent you in open court for all the crimes you committed or imagined then there are secret military dungeons where the facism of your imagination live. As you say what are a million Chinese more or less to a billion. . .what are a hundred water boarded suspected terrorists to two million prisoners afforded due process. In the grand scheme of things you have to break a few eggs to win a military objective.

Yes I am aware that many of these companies have been privatized. It is OK if the privatized companies are in the hands of Brazilians such pension funds and so forth.

Sorry Ricardo, you are not FULLY aware of the privatized Companies. For example, when TELEBRAS was privatized the Spaniards, Italians and Americans split it bought them. Then Worldcom/MCI sold EMBRATEL to the Mexicans (Carlos Slim).The entire TELEBRAS was sold for $23 billions in 1998. Later that year, or in 1999, the state owned Nigerian Telecom (which came nowhere near the quality of the Telecom system we had, was auctioned off for $45 Billions and I think that A.T & T bought it.

CVRD was sold for about $3.6 Billions and there is an article about it in this magazine somewhere. I dont remember the figures for EMBRAER. All these were sold partly to pay off our external debt as well to plug the hole in our internal deficit. Oh, I think Mittal bought Acenor and as for as I know, he did not use the pension funds and it is not in the Brazilian hands either.

The government should study up to what percentage of a major company it’s acceptable to be on foreigner hands regarding certain strategic industries in Brazil including the shares of major banks and insurance companies, and so on….

The study may show that 100% should be in foreign hands, especially with the Spaniards and Portuguese!

All my ancestors that I know of came from Scotland and England before the year 1750. They all settled north of the Mason-Dixon line. There is a town in Mass. that was started by one of my forefathers. A couple of books exist.

So even though I live in Brazil, I am an American. What bothers me and I am sure some others whose American roots are centuries old, is that people from other countries emigrate to the USA, benefit from the opportunities, and yet hold views similar to yours on a variety of subjects, which they then propagate.

Certainly it´s a free country and you have the right to express yourself in the American context.

But people like me also have the right to disapprove of what you think, write about and defend.

Year ago I got a lesson in Rio, parking near the consulate and arguing with a flanelinho about parking there. An older guy got me aside and said, Chefe, cuidado, aqui no Rio ninguem vale nada. In other words, back in your village you might be a big shot, even the mayor, but here you are just another jerk.

By now you have no doubt noticed that while we on this forum are interested in your heritage, and I mean that sincerely, the average American couldn´t care less. Being the offspring of Bonfácio and also having two quarters in your hand means you can make a local call from a pay phone in Miami.

In my opinion, your analyses of the USA in the area of politics, finance and foreign policy have been weighed, here, in the balances and found wanting.

I just have a hard time knowing how someone with your opportunities, grades as you described them, and contacts can hold so many views on so many subjects that are simply sophomoric. Write essay answers like that in a blue test book at Berkeley and the TA would have a field day marking it up and sending it back to you.

Some people were starving or sick and there was no help for them and many homeless people just died on the sidewalks. When these poor people died their bodies stayed on the sidewalk sometimes for an entire week until the wagon passed around to collect the dead people. Then they showed when the wagon came and there were a pile of bodies on top of it – the bodies that they had been collecting around town just on that day.

That kind showed me the reality of over-population. The value of human life diminishes as a country increases its over-population.

Human rights is a beautiful concept and civilized countries should adopt and practice it – but I am aware that when you have an over supply of people then you can’t use such a concept because it can’t be practiced in reality – for example in countries such as India and China.

Ricardo, I was expecting this too. You are absolutely right, these are the "Collateral damages",just like the ones caught in the cross fire in the shoot outs between the gangs in Rio. I read that almost 900 drug dealers were eliminated there during this year, though they dont give the number of the collateral damages. A movie called "Esquadrão de Elite" has been made and is very popular among the Brazilians. Once the favelas of Rio are cleared of these vermins, we could always implement the "Bullet Train". Of course, these trains can be used to transport the surviving faveladas to SP.

It must be as the Brits like to put it " A Cunning Scheme". Sir.Templeton and Late Col.Riddel would have approved of this scheme.Btw, by any chance, was Col.Riddel related to Mary Riddel?

Where I was borned. They know how to handle a Natural Disaster. The fires, like the ones in San Diego. People lost everything.

Refugees who lost their homes are camping out in Qualcomm (football) Stadium. "Lavish buffets serving gourmet entrees". "Artichoke hearts..." "...massage therapists helped relieve the stress..."

"No complaints" to Gov. Arnold, as he visited for the second time, people taking pictures..... "Civility". "Most people seemed happy with the free food and drink..." . "Everyone is so friendly..."

You foreigners in the USA should fly out there, observe and take notes, and go back to your own countries and teach them how to do it The California Way.

Don´t say it´s impossible, the Californians can´t be that much smarter.

If California was an independent country its GDP would be sixth in the world. And what are there, 200 countries in the world?

The National Guard is just outside to make sure that civility continues.

Golden State. We, the Californians, are called Prune Pickers. Was once an Independent Nation. We, the gringos, started the rumor La Raza now passes on as theirs, that someday the state will revert to them and make Spanish the Official Language, because having them believe that serves our purposes. But I´ve said too much already.

All my ancestors that I know of came from Scotland and England before the year 1750. They all settled north of the Mason-Dixon line. There is a town in Mass. that was started by one of my forefathers. A couple of books exist.

I am impressed with your ancestory too, Ric. I must confess that I do not have a lineage similar to yours nor that of Ricardo Amaral nor Bo nor AES.

So even though I live in Brazil, I am an American

All the bloggers know that you are a "f**king American" living in Brasil (Dont mind my using expletives; I like to learn from youngsters like Bo). Never mind if you are an American living in Brasil which is a free country so far. Even Roberto Campos was criticized by the press for his clarity and focus on what had to be done.

Dont take me amiss;Come out and say what you think of this ethanol project, since we both know about the Ethanol run cars.Não esconde nada.

Where I was borned. They know how to handle a Natural Disaster. The fires, like the ones in San Diego. People lost everything.

Ric, we were petrified about this fire,because we have very good friends in San Diego.Had to call and check how they were. They seem to be doing alright and keeping stiff upperlip. Thank God. Good friends are hard to come by.

Even back in the days when John Wayne Airport was called Santa Ana and one runway served as a drag strip on the weekends, fifty years ago, there were three fuel classes: pump gas, pure alcohol, and a nitromethane mixture.

So once again Southern California was first. Juaquin Arnett of the Bean Bandits racing club reportedly discovered nitromethane when he worked at a family nursery. Nitro was an ag product at first.

We have a VW flex car that now has 13000 km on it, and we have always used gasoline in it.But the last two fill ups I had alcohol put in. Because experience tells us that you will use it or lose it, let the computer sense 100% alky once in awhile lest the system become lax. Likewise you should get out at do a few max effort acceleration takeoffs once in awhile because if you don´t the computer will get used to just putting along and not give you full power when you need it. At least the US computers were like that three or four years ago.

Anyway, some Californians have at least 55 years of automotive experience using alcohol. And I have seen it used on the street in the early 60´s.

We have a VW flex car that now has 13000 km on it, and we have always used gasoline in it.But the last two fill ups I had alcohol put in.

Would you mind checking if the mileage the car gives when using different fuels? Same or less or more? I dont know ifg you remember that in the early 80´s, VW cars run on alcohol, used to give much less mileage. That was the reason why I opted for FORD Corcel II

Anyway, some Californians have at least 55 years of automotive experience using alcohol. And I have seen it used on the street in the early 60´s.

I did not know about this and thanks for the info. Did they use alcohol out of sugar cane or something else? Btw, you have been making some interesting posts about the fuels and thanks once again for them.

Ricardo,

Most ex-European diplomats said that the next missile launcher will be fired from outer space. The war is not over yet. Scientist are thinking of a new world technology that can be used to upgrade the standard of the killer machine. In fact, the project is in progress. Besides sending in that small robot to Mars and having the spy satellite, most scientist are thinking about the new enhancement of war technology. Some diplomats in fact confirms that the next war will be the most brutal. It is just like hell on earth.

Analysis: A new USAF cyber-war doctrine

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
by Shaun Waterman
Washington (UPI) Oct 17, 2007
Recent pronouncements by U.S. Air Force officials about their view of cyberspace as a war-fighting domain have attracted little attention. But the questions they raise for U.S. military policy and doctrine are profound.
"Cyber(space) is important to the nation," said Gen. Robert Elder, the military officer in charge of the U.S. Air Force's day-to-day cyberspace operations, acknowledging the dependence of U.S. commerce and banking on the Internet, "But to the Air Force, it's really important."He told a recent briefing organized by the Air Force Association that cyberspace was vital because it was the key to the U.S. military's fabled cross-domain dominance."When we talk about the speed range and flexibility of air power" -- to deliver satellite-guided strikes to effect the outcome of a battle on the ground for example -- "the thing that enables this for us is the fact of our cyber-dominance," the ability to move data and control signals through cyberspace -- which as the Air Force defines it is the entire electromagnetic spectrum.The Air Force is in the process of standing up a fully fledged Cyberspace Command, alongside its Space and Air Commands, but Elder, like other senior officials, denied that the move was a turf grab.He elaborated on the consequences of the Air Force's view of cyberspace as a war-fighting domain by analogizing it to the maritime and air domains, both of which were simultaneously the venues for commerce and daily life, and potential vectors for military action by or against the United States.
"We in the Air Force think the air is a war-fighting domain," he said, "but that doesn't mean we expect Delta or United (Airlines) to think it is."

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
by Andrei Kislyakov
Moscow (UPI) Sep 28, 2007
Reports about missile interceptors and potential military confrontation in Iran have eclipsed the emergence of cyberspace as a new military theater.
The Internet is turning into a real battlefield. The U.S. Air Force is establishing a temporary special command responsible for combat action in the World Wide Web.

In the future, the Pentagon intends to turn it into a fully fledged Cyber Command of the U.S. Air Force. In other words, the world's strongest power's entire system of defense operations will also cover the Internet.

Frankly speaking, the Americans are doing the right thing. The Net, which has reached out to all continents, determines the key parameters for the functioning of modern society -- from salary payments to troop control. Not a single aircraft will take off or land, not a single plant will start working, and not a single military unit will begin moving without the matrix.

Control over the Net is ultra-important. It is believed cyberspace became a battlefield during the Persian Gulf War in 1991, when international forces ousted the Iraqi occupants from Kuwait. At that time the Americans set up the Desert Special Net, an information network that guaranteed the precise targeting of Patriot missiles to protect Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

The American local military network made it possible to create effective simulators for personnel training. Out of 36 crew members of the Apache fire support helicopters that crossed the Iraqi border on Jan. 17, 1991, only three had experience in firing air-to-surface Hellfire rockets. Others were trained on simulators.

Every achievement has a positive and a negative side, especially in the military sphere. It is clear that nowadays the Internet has become part and parcel of everyone's life. But there will always be people who would wish to virtually steal a real million from a bank, wreak havoc in NASA or neutralize a military unit, as it almost happened in 1991.

At that time, Dutch hackers managed to break the codes of several computers that were part of the U.S. Army logistic support information system. The fact that these guys preferred military information to tulips was not the worst thing. Military experts believe that because of this Dutch attack the American guys could have found toothbrushes in the zinc ammunition boxes.

Russian computer geniuses have mastered the Net some 20 years after their Western colleagues but have left them far behind. It is enough to mention the unprecedented electronic robbery of the City Bank in the mid-1990s. Later on, St. Petersburg software expert Vladimir Levin was charged with this crime, arrested and convicted as a result of a joint operation by Russian and Western security-related services. Nevertheless, he is the only compatriot in the so-called Hacker's Hall of Fame. So far.

But today the Americans are expecting the Trojan Horse, a destructive virus disguised as a safe computer program, and they don't think it will come from Russia.

According to the U.S. Department of Defense, the military-information strategy of the Chinese armed forces provides for the formation of special cyber units capable of attacking enemy computer systems. It was way back in 2000 that the Pentagon spread the information about China's capability for invading poorly protected American military and civilian networks. Now combat computer training is a compulsory discipline in the Chinese army's military education program.

In turn, the Chinese authorities maintain that their domestic official servers are victim to large-scale hacker attacks, which seriously prejudice national security. To sum up, a respite on the new front line is not expected for a long time to come.

(Andrei Kislyakov is a political commentator for RIA Novosti. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

AES said: “So what do you have to hide….What is your security clearance? How can you form an opinion without information. You are on the outside looking in. There is no absolute to justice, it is more often a function of money.”

I don’t have anything to hide, and I don’t security clearance for anything. (you are showing your colors right now.)

I am among a rapidly declining number of people here in the United States who still believe in the American Constitution and Bill of Rights – that’s all the security clearance that I need to live in the United States.

You said: “what are a hundred water boarded suspected terrorists to two million prisoners afforded due process. In the grand scheme of things you have to break a few eggs to win a military objective.”

Like in Vietnam when some soldiers massacred an entire village full of women, children, and senior citizens. Or when the US dropped the second atomic bomb in Nagasaki just for the hell of it – and in the process killing 80,000 people mostly women, children and senior citizens.

My comments about over-population it is just an observation about what happen when a country has too many people such as India and China.

I just saw a program on the Charlie Rose Show a few nights ago and they had a bunch of experts talking about all the problems the they see in China.

I am not a critic of China, and if anything the Chinese government has been doing a magnificent job in the last 25 years. If you look back to the China of 25 years ago and compare it with the China of today – the transformation has been spectacular. China lifted more people out of poverty in the last 25 years than any other country on earth.
Today they have a middle class almost the size of the American middle class.

Only a fool would not acknowledge China’s gigantic economic transformation from a communist system to the new capitalist system that they have today.

People in the United States needs a lot of balls to criticize China’s progress. There is no such a thing as a miracle and no government or economic system can provide good jobs with good wages and benefits for 1.3 billion people almost overnight.

Let’s compare it with the model for capitalist societies – the United States. The US started with only a population of 90 million people 100 years ago – and the US has been the leading economy in the world at least for the last 60 years - the richest country in the world.

Since today the United States has only 300 million people – just a drop in the bucket of China’s population – one could expect that such a successful and wealthy country would not have over 50 million people living in complete poverty. And one would not expect to see places like Newark, NJ, Bronx, NY, Detroit, Cleveland and so on…Let’s not forget New Orleans.

I understand the roots of the crime problem in Brazil and I have written about that in the past – rapid population growth – Brazil started the year 1900 with 17 million people and 100 years later the population had exploded to 190 million people. Let me put in another way because it is easier to remember in 1948 the population of Brazil was 48 million people and 52 years later the population was 190 million people.

The population was growing much faster than the economy. As the Brazilian population multiplied like rabbits the economic growth did not keep pace with the increase in population. It never does it because the economy goes through economic cycles and it is affected by all kind of things from droughts, to hurricanes, to obsolesce of old industries,
I could make a very long list of positive and negative things that affect the economy year after year.

In the meantime the population is growing exponentially year after year.

The result: massive poverty for a large number of people in the population since there’s not enough good jobs to go around for everyone. And that is the reality.

That's why I am not surprised by the population problems that we have today in Brazil.


.

I am among a rapidly declining number of people here in the United States who still believe in the American Constitution and Bill of Rights – that’s all the security clearance that I need to live in the United States.

Yes we all believe in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. But the expectant right to privacy using the internet or a cellular phone is naive. It is an ironious extrapolation, an opinion of 18th century thinking to 21st century technology. It is a time of war with very real threats. You do not believe that we are at war. You think this is something that is unimportant, irrelevant, wrong. What if it is not. What if you were privy to the information that goes into the decision making by the military. Do you think their actions are capricious? As to Nagasaki, I suggest you read the reasoning by the people that were making the decisions then. One bomb, it was reasoned, would be perceived by the Japenese as a possibility two a certitude. It is estimated that a quarter million American lives were saved as a consequence. It was a different time. You need to look at a thing in the context of the history from which it derives. And the invoking of the My Lai massacre is nothing more than a sophmoric red herring. War is not humane. It is not just. It has nothing to do with civil rights. You have an obligation as a citizen not to commit treason and to contribute to the countries war effort. Else you are not contributing but impeding. You do not have the freedom to impede war. The present involvement in Iraq is/was the continuation of the Gulf War. Hussein was in violation of the treaty he signed to end hostilities in that war. Read the ten year history since the conclusion of the Gulf War. Do you think you are privy to any information other than what you glean from the press or the media that is of any significance. How do you form an actionable opinion based upon the opinion of others? You are not privy to intelligence, the opinion you have is the opinion that is given to you. As it is said in intelligence, 'when we want your opinion we will give it to you.'

You said: “But the expectant right to privacy using the internet or a cellular phone is naive.”

I know – here is an example.


“FBI system covertly searches e-mail”

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation is using a superfast system called Carnivore to covertly search e-mails for messages from criminal suspects.

Essentially a personal computer stuffed with specialized software, Carnivore represents a new twist in the federal government's fight to sustain its snooping powers in the Internet age. But in employing the system, which can scan millions of e-mails a second, the FBI has upset privacy advocates and some in the computer industry. Experts say the system opens a thicket of unresolved legal issues and privacy concerns.

The FBI developed the Internet wiretapping system at a special agency lab at Quantico, Va., and dubbed it Carnivore for its ability to get to "the meat" of what would otherwise be an enormous quantity of data. FBI technicians unveiled the system to a roomful of astonished industry specialists here two weeks ago in order to steer efforts to develop standardized ways of complying with federal wiretaps.

Word of the Carnivore system has disturbed many in the Internet industry because, when deployed, it must be hooked directly into Internet service providers' computer networks. That would give the government, at least theoretically, the ability to eavesdrop on all customers' digital communications, from e-mail to online banking and Web surfing.

The system also troubles some Internet service providers, who are loath to see outside software plugged into their systems. In many cases, the FBI keeps the secret Carnivore computer system in a locked cage on the provider's premises, with agents making daily visits to retrieve the data captured from the provider's network. But legal challenges to the use of Carnivore are few, and judges' rulings remain sealed because of the secretive nature of the investigations.

The huge majority of wiretaps continue to be the traditional telephone variety, though U.S. officials say the use of Internet eavesdropping is growing as everyone from drug dealers to potential terrorists begins to conduct business over the Web.

The FBI defends Carnivore as more precise than Internet wiretap methods used in the past. The bureau says the system allows investigators to tailor an intercept operation so they can pluck only the digital traffic of one person from among the stream of millions of other messages. An earlier version, aptly code-named Omnivore, could suck in as much as to six gigabytes of data every hour, but in a less discriminating fashion.

Still, critics contend that Carnivore is open to abuse.

Mark Rasch, a former federal computer-crimes prosecutor, said the nature of the surveillance by Carnivore raises important privacy questions, since it analyzes part of every snippet of data traffic that flows past, if only to determine whether to record it for police.

"It's the electronic equivalent of listening to everybody's phone calls to see if it's the phone call you should be monitoring," Rasch said. "You develop a tremendous amount of information."

Others say the technology dramatizes how far the nation's laws are lagging behind the technological revolution. "This is a clever way to use old telephone-era statutes to meet new challenges, but clearly there is too much latitude in the current law," said Stewart Baker, a lawyer specializing in telecommunications and Internet regulatory matters.

Robert Corn-Revere, of the Hogan & Hartson law firm here, represented an unidentified Internet service provider in one of the few legal fights against Carnivore. He said his client worried that the FBI would have access to all the e-mail traffic on its system, raising dire privacy and security concerns. A federal magistrate ruled against the company early this year, leaving it no option but to allow the FBI access to its system.

"Once the software is applied to the ISP, there's no check on the system," said Rep. Bob Barr (R., Ga.), who sits on a House judiciary subcommittee for constitutional affairs. "If there's one word I would use to describe this, it would be 'frightening."'

.

When I said that: “but I am aware that when you have an over supply of people then you can’t use such a concept because it can’t be practiced in reality – for example in countries such as India and China.”

Above I was given only the most obvious examples; the truth is that also applies to most countries in Africa with a few exceptions.

You said: “Once the favelas of Rio are cleared of these vermins, we could always implement the "Bullet Train". Of course, these trains can be used to transport the surviving faveladas to SP.”

I think the other way around would be the result since Rio de Janeiro is a beautiful place with the beaches and everything else. In Sao Paulo they have to live under the bridges, and the accommodations are not as pretty like in Rio de Janeiro. Remember many the favelas around Rio have a beautiful view of that town – day and night.


Joao said: “Ricardo, I was expecting this too. You are absolutely right, these are the "Collateral damages"

I was also thinking about the problems that overpopulation brings to a government
Since most governments have just so much resources available to fund so many competing programs.

And many countries don’t have the money even to provide some minimum amount of healthcare for the poor population – and in many cases the tragedy is even bigger when there are millions of people starving to death.

I am being very pragmatic here with my comments and I am not trying to sugar coat anything and that make people such as Hegemon to go ballistic.

.

You said: “I just have a hard time knowing how someone with your opportunities, grades as you described them, and contacts can hold so many views on so many subjects”

Because I read all the time newspapers, magazines, and a lot of books – I am always reading and have been doing it on a regular basis for the last 35 years.

Until the year 2000 I have been more interested in reading about economics, investments, business, world history, and philosophy. And I usually did not care much about politics.

Since George W. Bush (The Moron) became president of the United States and surrounded himself with a group of the most incompetent people that I can remember in any prior American administration – I started writing about politics only after 2001, but usually from an economics perspective – and most of the idiots who have been running the US government since 2001 – I can’t wait for all of them to leave town by January of 2009.

I am extremely anti-Bush/Cheney and their administration, but I am not anti-American, and I have not lost hope that Al Gore still jump into next year’s presidential race since in my opinion he is the best candidate available today to become the next president of the United States.

.

You also said: “What if you were privy to the information that goes into the decision making by the military. Do you think their actions are capricious? As to Nagasaki, I suggest you read the reasoning by the people that were making the decisions then.”

The real reason was that they had two different type of nuclear weapons to use and they wanted to test both of them to compare the results. It was just a minor test – no big deal.

Then I wonder why the United States dropped the two atomic bombs: one in Hiroshima, and the other in Nagasaki in 1945 in a matter of 3 days.

On 6th August 1945, the nuclear weapon Little Boy was dropped on Hiroshima, killing an estimated 80,000 civilians and heavily damaging the city.

On 9 August 1945, Nagasaki was the target of the world's second atomic bomb attack at 11:02 a. m. on 9 August 1945, the nuclear weapon Fat Boy was dropped in Nagasaki, when the north of the city was destroyed and an estimated 70,000 people killed outright with another 70,000 doomed to die of bomb-related causes in the decades that followed. The Nagasaki bomb, dropped by the Boeing B-29 Bockscar was much more explosive bomb (22 kilotons of TNT as opposed to 13) than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima three days earlier and was a plutonium bomb, whereas the Hiroshima bomb was a uranium bomb.


*****


You said: “You have an obligation as a citizen not to commit treason and to contribute to the countries war effort.”

That is what they said also in Serbia and today some of them are at the Hague as criminals of war.

You also said: “You do not have the freedom to impede war.”

Are you going insane?

Now you sound like someone who is going insane.


You said: “Hussein was in violation of the treaty he signed to end hostilities in that war. Read the ten year history since the conclusion of the Gulf War. Do you think you are privy to any information other than what you glean from the press or the media that is of any significance.

How do you form an actionable opinion based upon the opinion of others? You are not privy to intelligence, the opinion you have is the opinion that is given to you. As it is said in intelligence, 'when we want your opinion we will give it to you.'”


First of all I have a brain and I am able to think and come to my own conclusions. If anything if you read many of my published articles then you would know that long before they started the war in Iraq I said that it is impossible for Saddam Hussein to have the WMD that they were claiming that he had – I said at the time that the US mainstream media and the American people had stopped using their brain to think.

And on my article I did explain how it was impossible for Hussein to be doing what they were claiming because he did not have the cash flow to do it.

You did not need to be a rocket scientist to put the pieces together and figure that one out.

In another article published the day after Colin Powell’s presentation in the UN – I said on my article that today even a 15 year-old high school kid could have had a better presentation – His presentation to convince the rest of the countries that it was time to start a war against Iraq it was so silly that was borderline insulting to the intelligence of anyone who were try to make sense of that information in an intelligent manner.

By the way, I don’t need your pathetic and worthless intelligence – you can use it as toilet paper which is a better use for it anyway.

If the mainstream media were reading my articles or at least if they were doing their jobs – then we would not be involved on this massive chaos in MESS-O-POTAMIA.

.

By the way, here are a few tips and some reminders – sure it is a much more accurate information than anything you have that is passing for intelligence.

I am not sure that George W. Bush really remembers who Osama Bin Ladden is since he almost never mentions his name – but anyway just to refresh your mind in case you also forgot – Osama Bin Ladden is the person responsible for the attack in US soil in 9/11.

The US mainstream media might be in denial in the same way that the Bush administration has been in denial since they decided to invade Iraq. The United States with its supposed superior spying and military capabilities after 6 years they have not been able to find anywhere around the world a very tall man – of about 6’ 8’’ in height.

The lesson that the Bush administration is teaching to the rest of the world is: you can attack the United States and cause a lot of damage and you can get away with it because the Americans don’t have the guts of going after you if you take refuge in a place such as Pakistan.

I did not use the word hide – I used the word take refuge. Hide imply that the United States can’t find Osama Bin Ladden because he is hiding and no one knows where he is.

Take refuge implies that the entire world knows where he is (I guess even the Bush administration) and that the Pakistani government is protecting him.

Osama bin Ladden knows that the United States can’t do anything about him since Osama Bin Ladden is being protected by Pakistan – a country armed with an arsenal of nuclear weapons.

As long Osama Bin Ladden is staying in Pakistan he is untouchable by the United States military, and the United States is completely impotent in that regard - and the US it can’t do anything about it.

No wonder that the US rep**ation is completely discredited around the world.

.

Ricardo,

Just check your email. I send in some useful information regarding the late Saddam Hussein. As for AES, normally intelligence will make you think and belief as how and when they please. It is always the same game. It is truly covert operations and the intelligence will trying it's best to hide the truth. It is truly manipulative to the extend that the public will have no choice but to buy the lies that being spreaded just like viruses.

Reply to Bo
written by Ricardo Amaral, 2007-10-23 10:22:16
You said: “Come on now...nothing? That's certainly not accurate. I can think of at least 14 permanent military bases in a strategic part of the world. The U.S. hasn't been making decisions based on "today" for a long time. They make decisions based on 50 years and more from today.”


The world is too big and very complex only fools would think that they could dominate the world by force.

The US is pissing a ton of money away to fight the last war. That world is dying very fast and the meantime the rest of the world is investing in the future.

The reality is today the United States is not even in the position of keeping up with a new arms race with the Chinese and the Soviet Union since these countries have a ton of money today. On the other hand the United States has an army that is having all kinds of problems fighting even a small group of people in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The entire war machine of the United States is being destroyed in Iraq because of heat and sand storms – these weather events are destroying the helicopters, the tanks, the trucks, the airplanes and anything that comes in contact with the very high heat and the sand storms. By the way, sand and machinery don’t mix too well – never mind the high heat.

The next big war it will be fought from space anyway with missiles being shot at targets here on earth from satellites that would be moving around the earth and could hit any target that they want.

If the Chinese and Russians wanted to start a new arms race with the United States – then please tell me who is going to finance the US side of that race since the US is already $ 10 trillion dollars in debt and the US has a massive amount of baby boomers who will grab any type of money available in the US economy to finance their needs related to Social Security, Medicare, pensions, and so on…. And the senior citizens are a powerful group who vote and they can keep things going their way in the US.

Ohh Ricardo, I could go into a 10-15 paragraph response, but Ric hit the nail on the head. With someone with such an education as you have been so humble to describe, many of your answers, responses, and stances, are simply sophomoric.

Most of the time you sound as if you just graduated from USP and 2 years ago particpated in a anti-Bush demonstration wearing your "Amazona é Nossa" t-shirt.

and I have not lost hope that Al Gore still jump into next year’s presidential race since in my opinion he is the best candidate available today to become the next president of the United States.

"forgive them lord, they know not what they do..."

If the Chinese and Russians wanted to start a new arms race with the United States – then please tell me who is going to finance the US side of that race since the US is already $ 10 trillion dollars in debt and the US has a massive amount of baby boomers who will grab any type of money available in the US economy to finance their needs related to Social Security, Medicare, pensions, and so on…. And the senior citizens are a powerful group who vote and they can keep things going their way in the US.

And arms race? LOL. Buddy, have you seen a world map with all the worlds military bases that exist?

The U.S. only has more than 750 world-wide military bases. We've pretty much got the globe covered.It's now down to only "maintenance". We have enough nuclear warheads to destroy the planet several thousand times AND the means to deliver them. The race is over....it really never began. The U.S.S.R. was only a mirage. China better think about feeding, clothing, educating, and providing jobs for their 300 million starving people making less than 1 dollar a day before they get destroyed from within.

Who calls them like he sees them, John McCain. When he made his joke, using a Beach Boys tune, "Bomb-bomb-bomb Iran..."he wasn´t making that up on the spur of the moment for a laugh. He´s plugged in, to the Old Boy Network. Watch for it. Coming soon to a theatre near you. Although from Mr. Amaral´s own statements he gets a lot of his info from the TV. In that case, keep watching.

No matter who produces the best hackers, the USA still controls the web. And therefore has the advantage.

The are still analog people out their who use the regular mail, send stuff via UPS, and from all over the world, messengers with briefcases who make a trip to JFK or LAX or MIA with really important documents, every day of the year.

If one doesn´t like FexEx, don´t use it. If one doesn´t like the way the owners run the world wide web and e-mail and all that, one is free to use other methods to transmit data, make purchases, transfer money, and send letters.

From Guam to Aruba to Diego Garcia, gotcha covered. Unlike many of you, I have actually been up in a B1. You enter from the belly and there´s a small third seat in the c**kpit.

But that´s so 1980s. We´ve got 21 B2s. Hegemony never looked more promising. If you take a Dim View of it, the B2 must drive you nuts.

From the Los Alamos National Laboratory:

"Groves had predicted it would take two bombs to force the Japanese to surrender. The first would stun the enemy, and the second would demonstrate the United States’ ability to produce more than one atomic bomb. His prediction proved accurate"

A committee formed by General Groves selected four cities based on the following criteria:
Targets had to possess sentimental value in the mind of the Japanese people.
Targets had to have some military significance.
Targets had to be largely intact, to demonstrate the awesome destructive power of an atomic bomb.
The target had to be large in size, suitable for attack by a weapon of an atomic bomb's magnitude.

http://www.lanl.gov/history/at...tory.shtml

Sem Dúvida Alguma,

Was the infelicitous us of the pejorative term, Fat Boy. Perhaps in today's perspective, this would be to many, the larger Gaffe Crassa. (The two f´s used to reflect the French derivation and not the initial British double f).

Come on Ricardo. . .MESS-O-POTAMIA?

And as to Osama. . .could have nuked the area that would have accomplished your end result, but there are ramifications to all actions. Pakistan is a nuclear power teetering on a radical muslim overthrow of Musharif's government. Should Pakistan fall the radical movement comes into possesson of nuclear armament. All U.S. actions are predicated upon this. The assasination attempt of Benazir Bhutto is a manifestation of how precarious events in Pakistan are.

Your mockery verges on pseudo-intellection.

.

Ricardo: "I want the truth!"
AES: "You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls. And those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives...You don't want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall. You need me on that wall.
We use words like honor, code, loyalty...we use these words as the backbone to a life spent defending something. You use 'em as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it! I'd rather you just said thank you and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!"

When the author keeps blogging and can´t Shut Up.

"A liberal Arts education enables one to know a good man when one sees him."

It´s unethical for a doctor to operate on a family member, but not for a mechanic to fix his own car or a columist to get involved in dicussion re: his column.

Might not be very smart, though, from the author´s perspective. Here in Brazil in the courts, a good lawyer will allow his client to give a deposition just once and if it can be avoided, not return to the stand. Because invariably if he talks again he will misspeak, contradict, or not remember correctly.

If a writer just writes and then drops out of sight, his thesis may have more chance of making a difference, from his point of view, than if he gives the reader an inside track on what he thinks about other issues. He risks the chance of being assigned to nut case category unless he has had experience in some field such as politics, law, or another profession in which one either learns to be circumspect in what one says publicly, or gets fired or sued.

AES: "You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls. And those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives...You don't want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall. You need me on that wall.
We use words like honor, code, loyalty...we use these words as the backbone to a life spent defending something. You use 'em as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it! I'd rather you just said thank you and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!"

Please refresh my fading and failing memory. Are you not quoting these from "Cain Mutiny"?

A Few Good Men

China better think about feeding, clothing, educating, and providing jobs for their 300 million starving people making less than 1 dollar a day before they get destroyed from within.

I would rather say "China IS JUST THINKING about feeding....................."

Henry Kissinger taught them to do so over 30 years ago!

I send in some useful information regarding the late Saddam Hussein.

Please post this info so that we can all read.

A Few Good Men

Thanks and now I remember!

After the Empire – Part 1

Instead of getting into a pissing contest with AES, Ric, and Bo about the Iraq War and the military power of the United States – which would be a waste of time for all of us.

Here is some information that can put the spotlight on the right perspective, and also could enlighten everyone – if this was a horse race my bet would be on Emmanuel Todd.

Before you read the information about Emmanuel Todd I just want to remind the readers that he wrote most of this information right before the US managed to start the war against Iraq in March of 2003. The actual situation has turned a lot worse for the United States since then than the picture that he describes today the American politicians have no idea how to get out of Iraq a war and that war is costing a fortune for the United States including the latest request for money – the US would have pissed away $ 800 billion dollars and that does not include a lot of other costs associated with the war.

The trade deficits have continued, the US dollar is sinking like the Titanic in world markets, the US financial system has caused a major international financial crisis related to the sub-prime scandal. Most of the US allies in the Iraq war are saying goodbye it’s your war. It does not matter how you look at if Mr. Todd were writing his book today he would have painted an even more-bleaker picture.

Anyway, here is what I wrote in August 4, 2004 after I finished reading his book.

I just finish reading "After the Empire - The Breakdown of the American Order" by Emmanuel Todd. This book was a best seller in Europe last year, but was published here in the US only at the end of February of 2004. This book gives an extraordinary explanation to what is happening around the world today. The book also mentioned what is happening in the Middle East and in Saudi Arabia. This book is a must read for anyone who really wants to understand what is going on between the United States and the rest of the world.

You might as me what is so special about this author when compared with all the other similar books that are available on this subject?

Emmanuel Todd has a special credential that nobody else has; in 1976 he wrote a book predicting and explaining in detail the coming collapse of the Soviet Empire. He was away ahead of his time, and he was the first person to spot the coming problems.

Once again, he does a superb job on his new book when he explain in detail all the interactions today between the countries around the world with the US, and the causes for the coming collapse of the American economic system.

After reading this book you will have a better understanding of the reasons behind the change of US government policies towards the entire Arab world, including its old friend Saudi Arabia.


Emmanuel Todd


Emmanuel Todd, a historian credited with predicting the downfall of the Soviet Union in the 1970’s now says that the US has been on its way out for the last decade. Mr. Todd on his newest book "After the Empire." predicts the fall of the United States as the sole superpower (Columbia University Press - February 2004.)

The power and influence of the United States is being overestimated, claims French historian and demographer Emmanuel Todd. "There will be no American Empire." "The world is too large and dynamic to be controlled by one power." According to Todd, whose 1976 book predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, there is no question: the decline of America the Superpower has already begun.

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After the Empire – Part 2


Quoting Mr. Todd: "When I speak of the economy, then I mean the industrial core and the associated technological cutting edge, not the anemic New Economy. It is in the core industrial sphere that the US is falling dramatically behind. European investors lost billions in the US during the nineties, but the US economy lost an entire decade. As recently as 1990 the US was still exporting $35 billion more in advanced technology than it was importing. Now the balance of trade is negative even in this field. The US is far behind in mobile communications technology. The Finnish Nokia is four times the size of Motorola. More than half the communications satellites are being launched with European Ariane rockets. Airbus is about to surpass Boeing -- the most important transportation medium for personnel traffic in the modern global economy is about to be manufactured primarily in Europe. These are the things that are ultimately important. These are by far more vital and decisive factors than a war against Iraq.

The US leadership doesn't know anymore where to turn. They know that they are monetarily dependant on the rest of the world, and they are afraid of becoming inconsequential. There are no more Nazis and Communists. While a demographic, democratic, and politically stabilizing world recognizes that it is increasingly less dependant on the US, America is discovering that it is increasingly dependant on the rest of the world. That is the reason for the rush into military action and adventures. It is classic.

The only remaining superiority is military. This is classic for a crumbling system. The final glory is militarism. The fall of the Soviet Union took place in an identical context. Their economy was in decline, and their leadership grew fearful. Their military apparatus gained in size and stature and the Russians embarked on adventures to forget their economic shortcomings. The parallels in the US are obvious.

As a historian, the dollar represents a "mentality indicator" to me. It reflects the awareness of international trade and business leaders of the realities of the American economy. The weakness of the dollar is indicative of their assessment that the situation is much worse than is openly acknowledged. The fact is that troops destined for the war in Iraq, which has been represented as a simple mission, are still not totally prepared. After a year of back and forth, the diplomatic heavyweights of France and Germany are trying to prevent this war, and the balance of the allies are participating mostly verbally, not financially. There is an immense risk in engaging in a war on the opposite side of the globe while fettered by a $500 billion trade deficit, a weak dollar and supported only by friends who are unwilling to share the costs.

One of the working propositions of my book, After the Empire is that the concept of military control of the globe no longer makes any sense. In relation to the military, there will be a balance of power in the future. There is still a nuclear balance of power between the US and Russia. The notion that sections of the globe can be controlled through military might is passé, because it is unrealistic. You can destroy regimes and bomb their infrastructure, as the Americans have done in Afghanistan, but the populations -- including those in the developing world -- have become educated and literate enough to eliminate any possibility of re-colonization. The only power that ultimately counts today is economic power.

.

Too many unproven assertions to be taken at face value.

"As a historian, the dollar indicates a 'mentality indicator' to me."

Now that the dollar is doomed as a fiat currency, it´s nice to know that is still has its day job as an historian.

As I have been suggesting with many of my articles that the future of Brazil it has more to do with China than the United States here is an example that contrast what we know is happening in China with what is the main US goals.

As the rest of the world including Brazil, China, India, Russia, and many others invest in the future the United States put all its (borrowed) eggs in one basket.


****


U.S. CBO estimates $2.4 trillion long-term war costs
Reuters - Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:29pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could cost taxpayers a total of $2.4 trillion by 2017 when counting the huge interest costs because combat is being financed with borrowed money, according to a study released on Wednesday.

With President George W. Bush indicating a large contingent of U.S. troops likely will be engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan for many years to come, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the total tab for the wars from 2001 through 2017.

CBO estimated that interest costs alone from 2001-2017 could total more than $700 billion.

So far, Congress has given Bush $604 billion for the two wars, with about $412 billion spent in Iraq, according to CBO, which is Congress' in-house budget analyst. In Iraq alone, the United States is spending about $11 billion a month, with costs escalating.

Bush is seeking another $196 billion for combat in Iraq and Afghanistan through September 30 and Congress is expected to debate that request over the next few months.

CBO estimated that between 2008 and 2017, the wars could cost slightly more than $1 trillion, assuming overall troop strength is cut to 75,000 by 2013.

Currently, there are about 170,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and another 26,000 in Afghanistan.

Finance charges for the money already spent on the war will total $415 billion from 2001 to 2017, according to CBO. For the next decade, "interest outlays would increase by a total of $290 billion over that 10-year period," CBO told the House Budget Committee, which is reviewing long-term war costs.

CBO estimated that of the $2.4 trillion long-term price tag for the war, about $1.9 trillion of that would be spent on Iraq.

.

the US would have pissed away $ 800 billion dollars and that does not include a lot of other costs associated with the war.

Once again, 14 permanent military bases that you will never see closed in your lifetime.

Just ask the Germans.

The sun never goes down on the British Empire – the British controlled 25 percent of the world less than 100 years ago.

Death by taxes - Ask the Brits how it works…..

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I wrote an article published on June 2, 2005 - “While China Rises the US Falls in Brazil and Latin America” – In that article I mentioned a few trends that have been under way for a number of years.

In the bottom listed the location of the article if you decide to read the entire article - since that article was published in June 2005 at least 11,000 people did read that article online.

Here I am quoting from that article as follows:

“US Influence Declining in South America

The Arab-South America Summit offered to the Arabs commercial alternatives not available before, which will reduce the European and American hegemony in the Arab world.

The Arab Summit laid the foundations to further reduce the gap between the Arab world and South America, an area of the world that is becoming one of the major industrial and commercial trading blocs in the world.

On January 26, 2005 The Financial Times of London had an interesting editorial - "How America became the world's dispensable nation."

That Financial Times article started by saying: "In a second inaugural address tinged with evangelical zeal, George W. Bush declared: "Today, America speaks anew to the peoples of the world." The peoples of the world, however, do not seem to be listening. A new world order is indeed emerging - but its architecture is being drafted in Asia and Europe, at meetings to which Americans have not been invited.

....The US, it turns out, is a dispensable nation. Europe, China, Russia, Latin America and other regions and nations are quietly taking measures whose effect, if not sole purpose, will be to cut America down to size.

Ironically, the US, having won the cold war, is adopting the strategy that led the Soviet Union to lose it."

To further illustrate the United States loss of clout and influence in South America, we just have to look at the results of the latest election of the head of the OAS.

One of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's goals in her trip to Brazil in late April 2005 was to convince President Lula to change his mind and have Brazil vote for the US candidate that would head the Organization of American States (OAS) for the next 5 years.

One week later, the candidate that Brazil was supporting all along, in opposition to the United States, Mr. Insulza from Chile was the winner. It was the first time in the organizations 60-year history that the candidate supported by Washington did not win.

This particular election sends a clear signal to the world of how fast the United States is losing its influence in South America. At the same time that the US is losing its influence,
China is quickly replacing the United States influence in the Area.

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China's Rising Influence

In a very short period of time China is becoming the most important business partner of Brazil. China has been quickly replacing the United States' influence in Brazil - and that is also happening in other South American countries

On May 17, 2005 - The Financial Times of London had another article trying to explain why US influence was declining in South America: "Latin lessons the US faces a loss of leadership."

The article said: "Why have relations turned so sour? Economics is part of the reason. During the late 1980s and 1990s Latin America embraced free market policies and moved enthusiastically into the US orbit. But when reform often failed to produce growth that began to change, with many Latin Americans blaming the US for their problems.

"The failure of the Bush administration to help Argentina when it ran into a disastrous debt crisis at the end of 2001 was particularly damaging to its image in the region. "Whether or not Washington or Wall Street really bear the blame, many Latin Americans believe the US led them down the primrose path but then were simply not interested when times got tough," says Julia Sweig, a Latin America specialist at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.

"After a number of South American countries embraced democracy, and many of the economic policies prescribed by Washington including all kinds of privatizations, the result of these changes did not benefit the South American population as expected.

"And South America's less than impressive economic performance over the past 15 years has led to a fresh bout of soul-searching about what kind of economic model is right for the region.

"... In particular, the role of the state - which policymakers were trying to cut back for most of the 1990s - is undergoing a rethink, in part reflecting South America's growing economic relationship with parts of Asia that have achieved much higher rates of growth."

There is another factor that contributed to the current state of affairs in South America. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States lost its interest regarding South America.

Some South American countries including Brazil, instead of whining or crying over spilled milk, did something about it, as a capitalist country they started searching around the world for new partners to establish new ties to replace their lost business.

The US decline of influence with Brazil did not happen overnight or because of political reasons; it was as a result of economic reasons as Brazil found new partners.

The Brazilian need to find new markets for its products coincided with the economic explosion that has been happening in the Chinese economy in the last few years. Today, China has an insatiable need for commodities of all kinds to feed its amazing production machine.”


*********


If you want to read the entire article then go to:

“While China Rises the US Falls in Brazil and Latin America”
Published on June 2, 2005

http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/9296/76/


.

If you want to read the entire article then go to:

“While China Rises the US Falls in Brazil and Latin America”
Published on June 2, 2005

http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/9296/76/


,

As long as we are quoting Todd:

Communism, in its madness, supposed that society was everything and that the individual was nothing, an ideological basis that caused its own ruin. Today, the United States assures us, with a blind faith as intense as Stalin's, that the individual is everything, that the market is enough and that the state is hateful. The intensity of the ideological fixation is altogether comparable to the Communist delirium. This individualist and inequalitarian posture disorganizes American capacity for action. The real mystery to me is situated there: how can a society renounce common sense and pragmatism to such an extent and enter into such a process of ideological self-destruction? It's a historical aporia to which I have no answer and the problem with which cannot be abstracted from the present administration's policies alone. It's all of American society that seems to be launched into a scorpion policy, a sick system that ends up injecting itself with its own venom. Such behavior is not rational, but it does not all the same contradict the logic of history. The post-war generations have lost acquaintance with the tragic and with the spectacle of self-destroying systems. But the empirical reality of human history is that it is not rational.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hell no we wont go and they didnt. They abandoned service to country as anathema to freedom. So without restraint, with out regard to consequence, without equilibrium the pursuit of the self ended in a termanal obeisity of the body and of the economy. Without restraint, the child will eat what it wants till it becomes sick, morbid obeisity. . .psychologically dysfunctional. Like the Aesopian grasshopper the consequence of its carpe diem is now the wolf at the door. But life is change. Necessity being the mother of invention the pendulum begins its movement to the right. With freedom comes the requisite responsibility of moderation, of balance of sacrifice to its maintenance . We have the juvenile tendency to invidious procrastination. "I will do what I want, when I want and how I want," screams the terminal adolescent. . .the Declaration of Independence allows the individual the inalienable right of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. . .even if it kills him. We are the cause of ourselves. The mechanism of freedom is the responsibility for that freedom.

I think the other way around would be the result since Rio de Janeiro is a beautiful place with the beaches and everything else. In Sao Paulo they have to live under the bridges, and the accommodations are not as pretty like in Rio de Janeiro. Remember many the favelas around Rio have a beautiful view of that town – day and night.

Considering the plight of these folks living under the bridges, your plan to run Bullet Trains is fully approved on one condition, though. The Chinese have to build the track all the way to Aracaju, as the final destination. With this plan, we may be able to reduce the unemployment rate of almost 20 % in the city of SP.

and at what risk to brasil when
china starts its importation of millions of chinese to over see
there new country .

then brasil will look to the docktrin of marx or min konf
for help

one too remember they kill all the teachers and free thinkers ( ho thats right brasil has no teachers or free thinkers ]

one other thing when nthe take over was started in china they killed all drunks , drug dealers , whores , and thoes they found unfit to work 12 hours a day

on the bright side the chinese feed there people better than the brasilian food box

Todd is to futurism what Bo Belinski is to baseball.

May I know your email address please.

I just noticed that, in Jordan, it is truly sensitive to talk about the head of government openly. My Director somehow is a great fan of Queen Rania Al- Yassin............Unlike Senor Ricky Martin, he speaks on behalf of Queen Noor of Jordan and the rest of the Arabs.......WOW!!! Jordan got so many QUEENS......I wonder what happens to Prince Hassan....??????????

Those who are truly brave and courages will be locked up in jail if criticizing the Queen and King. Actually Senor Ricardo knows what it is all about. When one of my relatives got married to an ex-Iraqis diplomat son, than I begining to realise that it is A SMALL WORLD AFTER ALL........too small as a matter of fact.........

How to tame a WILD DRAGON as (Hu Jin Tao) when a cute mountain bear as (Vladimir Putin) approaches with bunch of sweet flowers as offering for the sleeping WILD DRAGON?????? Please answer this question immediately...... I am waiting.......

Joao said: “Considering the plight of these folks living under the bridges, your plan to run Bullet Trains is fully approved on one condition, though. The Chinese have to build the track all the way to Aracaju, as the final destination. With this plan, we may be able to reduce the unemployment rate of almost 20 % in the city of SP.”

If they build a line all the way to Aracaju as one of the final destinations – Sao Paulo might lose 50 percent of its population if many people decide to return to where they came from.

The UAE is investing a lot of money in the North of Brazil to develop tourism in that area of the country. Maybe that will help create many new jobs in the North of Brazil.

When you mentioned that the Chinese have to build the track all the way to Aracaju – that reminds me that in a lot of American cowboy movies mainly in the Pacific coast area, they always showed the Chinese building the railroad tracks or as cooks – talking about stereotyping people.

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As a frequent Chinese visitor to Brazil, I think many social and economical problems in Brazil are structural.
Unless people of Brazil have the political will to declare a king of some sort, or a dictator with unlimited power,
things will not change for a long time. The problems are identified, the solutions are there, but who has
the power to implement them? Universal Human Rights and Democracy are just another game for the have's to keep the have-not's behind.

As a Chinese reader, I am amazed by how people hold their misconceptions about China dear. Come on guys, if you had never been to China, or had no in-depth personal experience with things related to China, you should keep your opinion to yourself until you have an opportunity to do so. China is a large country with diverse population just like the U.S., educated or red-necks, peaceful or militant, artists and scientists. You can't judge the whole country based on few people you have met from that country. To those who called China a communist country, you have no idea what you are talking about.

You may have your point there. I just have one question here for you. Is it true that the government of China will control all of it's business entity?

I have a Chinese friend who told me that, when she was trying to buy a carpet a few years ago with a Chinese merchant dealer in China she was being cheated. Instead of getting a lower price the dealer simply ordered her to pay more.

You did mention about Mittal.

I heard about the feud between Mr. Lula and Mittal. For your info, Mittal manage to become rich when he was under the leadership of the ex-Indonesian President, Bapak Suharto. I used to have few Indonesian friends who mentioned about Bapak Suharto connection with few foreign businessmen. Trust me Senor you simply can't compare Mittal with the late Brazilian diplomat Senor Sergio. Mittal simply put himself at the same level as the President and he manage to become one of the most influential man in Indonesia. He is of Indian origin. Now in England he has his very own castle.

My wish is to follow the footstep of the late Senor Sergio. Most Malay diplomats SALUTE BAPAK SERGIO, for his effort to keep South East Asia in the state of peace and tranquility. I am truly feel the lost because when I was still studying at Stamford College Bapak Sergio is the man who manage to put East Timor on the world map as a free nation before John Howard manage to sneak his way up for the oil refinery process project.

On the other hand I am still thinking, what on earth is that Mittal doing in Indonesia while I was still studying in Stamford College...............Howcome he is so rich today??????????

You said: “and at what risk to Brazil when China starts its importation of millions of Chinese to over see there new country.”


***


They have not done that to the United States and I am suggesting that China invest in Brazil just a drop in the bucket of all the money they are pissing away with the US.

Remember the United States has already mortgaged its soul to China and without the Chinese money to keep the US economy afloat – the US probably would sink like the Titanic.

Right now the United States imports about $ 2 trillion dollars per year of kinds of stuff from around the world and a big chunk of that is coming from China.

Let’s see what would happen if the Chinese stop sending all these goods here to the US.
Wall Mart for starters would lose 90 percent of the goods on its shelves. And many other retailers also would end up with bare shelves like in the old Soviet Union.

Today the US is better known for producing software and Hollywood movies try to wear one of those and see what happen.

Oh my god the US army would have to fight its wars barefoot since all the American soldiers Army boots comes from China.

Never mind what would happen if the Chinese decides to stop lending money to the US government – right now they are lending at a rate of over $300 billion dollars per year – that would have a substantial impact in the interest rate level inside the United States – meaning that interest rates in the US would go up away up.

If you think the sub-prime problem it is bad right now, with interest rates going up probably most of the adjustable mortgages in the United States which is a very large number of mortgages that would be a major burden in the entire American economy with millions of people not being able to pay its monthly mortgage.

The wealth effect that helped the consumers to keep spending year after year it is now working in reverse as people start feeling poorer because of declining price of real estate in the US. The US economy depends on 70 percent of its economic activity on consumer spending.

The United States can have at the same time stagflation (a period of out-of-control price inflation combined with slow-to-no output growth, rising unemployment, and eventually recession) and a collapsing US dollar (which in turn would create even more inflation since the US has to import almost everything that we see inside our department stores).
There is only one way to describe such a crisis – the perfect storm.



Now going back to your question: My entire plan for the future about Brazil borrowing a few bucks from China it becomes just like nickels and dimes when compared to what already has happened to the United States – basically the Chinese already have the United States by the balls.

In another 3 years – by 2010 – the United States will achieve the new status of permanent serfs to their new masters in China since the United States will be in debt to that country to the tune of US$ 2 trillion dollars at that point and probably more.

Americans will get used to the new system of serfdom – last year Warren Buffet said on the annual report of his company that the direction that the United States is heading right now in the near future the US will become just an agrarian society.

Maybe the Chinese realized that as well a few years back and they decided to turn the US into a large agrarian serfdom. Maybe they will not need a source of foodstuff in the future such as from Brazil, since they already made the arrangements for that.

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You wrote: “As a Chinese reader, I am amazed by how people hold their misconceptions about China dear.”


You can check for yourself if I have misconceptions about modern China.

I have been writing about China on this forum and my screen name on that forum is: SouthAmerica. Enjoy the material it is very good stuff about China.


"The China Price" - The best business article I have seen in years.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...genumber=1


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Who do you suppose popularized that expression? The Indians, the slaves, the Jesuits, or the Portuguese masters?

Probably the same group that got everything in place to profit from pau brasil.

It seems obvious to me that you did not come up with this idea of China and the 200 billion on your own. It also seems likely that you are a lobbyist for whoever in Brazil thinks that they could get a piece of it, should it ever happen.

That´s capitalism. Go for it. But the chance of you actually cashing in big are probably about the same as an equity tranche getting big returns from its CDO in these days of the Subprime Bubble. Little economic lingo there, for illustration purposes.....

As a frequent Chinese visitor to Brazil, I think many social and economical problems in Brazil are structural.

You summed it up correctly.

The problems are identified, the solutions are there, but who has
the power to implement them?

A good question and I ask it frquently to those who whine constantly.

For you to be a frequent Chinese visitor to Brazil, you are probably a Businessman. While welcoming you to Brazil and this blog, I would like you to know the hurdles you face while doing business in Brasil.

I have never been to China and hence all the knowledge I have about your country is through the news. However, a German friend of mine who lives here revisited your country after 27 years and spent almost a month there. He pretty much confirmed what you stated in your two comments and was narrating the great transformation China has undergone in all fields during the 3 decades.

While Americans are sacrificing the future for the present, China is sacrificing the present for the future.

Beijing’s boom began after it devalued its currency in 1994. While a blow to Chinese consumers, devaluation gave Beijing a competitive edge over the other “Asian tigers.” Beijing then invited Western companies to locate new factories there to tap its pool of low-wage labor. As the price of access, Beijing demanded that Western companies transfer technology to Chinese partners. What the companies do not transfer, the Chinese extort or steal.

By offering excellent workers at $2 a day, guaranteeing no union trouble, allowing levels of pollution we would not tolerate, and ignoring health and safety standards, China has become the factory floor of the Global Economy and surpassed the United States as the world’s first choice for foreign investment.

What analyst Charles McMillion calls “the world’s most unequal trading relationship,” can be seen in the trade statistics. In 2002, the U.S. trade deficit with China was $103 billion. In May, it was running at $120 billion, the largest deficit between two trading nations in history.

It is thus a myth to say President Bush is presiding over a “jobless recovery.” The Bush tax cuts and Bush deficits are creating millions of manufacturing jobs —in China. America buys 14 percent of China’s production and delivers Beijing a trade surplus of 12 percent of its entire GDP. American purchases probably account today for 100 percent of China’s economic growth.

The U.S.-China relationship cannot truly be described as trade. It is rather the looting of America by China and its corporate collaborators in the United States. Beijing understands what economic nationalist Friedrich List wrote long ago: “The power of producing wealth is infinitely more important than the wealth itself.”

China has now amassed $360 billion in reserves from her trade surpluses since 1990. Much of that is invested in U.S. bonds and T-bills, earning Beijing billions in interest from the U.S. Treasury. America may be the most advanced nation on earth, and China a developing country, but you could not tell that from studying the trade statistics.

In 2002, China ran up its largest trade surpluses with us in electrical machinery, computers, toys, games, footwear, furniture, clothing, plastics, articles of iron and steel, vehicles, optical and photographic equipment, and other manufactures. Among the 23 items where we had a surplus with China were soybeans, corn, wheat, animal feeds, meat, cotton, metal ores, scrap, hides and skins, pulp and waste paper, cigarettes, gold, coal, mineral fuels, rice, tobacco, fertilizers, glass. Beijing uses us as George III used his Jamestown colony.

[urlhttp://www.amconmag.com/08_11_03/cover.html]

I would like you to know the hurdles you face while doing business in Brasil.

Sorry, it should read:" I would like you to tell us the kind of hurdles you come across while doing business in Brazil"

Death by taxes - Ask the Brits how it works…..

There is no need to ask the Brits,Ricardo. Our government can teach the Brits a trick or two.

Ric wrote: “It seems obvious to me that you did not come up with this idea of China and the 200 billion on your own.”

It is obvious to me that you never had an original idea on your life, and you think other people also are incapable as you must be. Your statement reflects your lack of confidence on yourself and your lack of creative abilities and it also reflects your personal insecurities.

I grasped long ago the fact that when someone is trying to say to you that you could not have done that, or you can’t do this or that – that person is really talking about themselves and not about you.

That’s why I don’t take as an insult what you are trying to imply on you comment – I understand that you are talking about yourself and your shortcomings.

You probably don’t know what the concept “thinking outside of the box” means – but that is what I am all about and my long list of articles and professional career reflect that type of mindset.

You probably don’t even have a clue regarding what I am talking about.


.

AES wrote: “Patrick J. Buchanan The rise of free trade has eroded America’s industrial base and with it sovereignty.”


Pat Buchanan understands that the Chinese are giving a lesson in cannibalistic type of capitalism to the United States.

There are a lot of things that Pat Buchanan say that makes a lot of sense – he does understand what is going on in the US regarding the economy.

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Death by taxes - Ask the Brits how it works…..

There is no need to ask the Brits,Ricardo. Our government can teach the Brits a trick or two.


Some people have the illusion that they US will have military bases around the world for the next 50 years.

If you spoke with anyone connected with the Soviet Union just 20 years ago – they have told you the same story about the Soviet Empire.

The Soviet Union died a slow death because of over spending with its Defense budget year after year. Now the United States is following into the footsteps of the Soviet Union how to piss away 100’s of billions in defense spending until your country implodes and goes bankrupt.

.

Some people have the illusion that they US will have military bases around the world for the next 50 years.

If you spoke with anyone connected with the Soviet Union just 20 years ago – they have told you the same story about the Soviet Empire.

The Soviet Union died a slow death because of over spending with its Defense budget year after year. Now the United States is following into the footsteps of the Soviet Union how to piss away 100’s of billions in defense spending until your country implodes and goes bankrupt.

Ricardo, may we please restrict our discussions to the enormous problems our country is facing and how to solve them? Your comments on U.S., Soviet Union, etc; are irrelevant to the great topic under discussion. Your plan is good and we have to discuss how we could finance it. Lets not drag in the U.S. their faults, Soviet Union and Putin, etc; I am interested in knowing how we can utilize our great potentials. There are plenty of Brazilians who live in Brazil and still have not given up hopes for our country.

Ricardo, I am of the opinion that we are not doing enough to attract the foreign investments like the Chinese are doing. It would be interesting to hear the opinion of our new blogger from China. Thank God, we dont have to learn Mandarin to hear his opinion, as his English is very good.

Cadê O Meu?, Who do you suppose popularized that expression? The Indians, the slaves, the Jesuits, or the Portuguese masters?

The right answer to your quizz is "The Native Indians". E agora, doutor?

You said: “Ricardo, may we please restrict our discussions to the enormous problems our country is facing and how to solve them? Your comments on U.S., Soviet Union, etc; are irrelevant to the great topic under discussion.”

All the information that I mentioned about the United States it’s very relevant to the subject that we are talking about. The United States is the place where the Chinese are investing a ton of money by the end of 2007 the Chinese will be holding US$ 1.2 trillion dollars in US dollar assets.

As someone reads the 4-part series of articles then the comments including the information about the United States precarious financial position in the coming years because of many of the reasons that were discussed on the above comments – the Chinese are trying to make a sensible decision about long-term investments – On one hand they have the US already in a overextended financial position – and in the other hand the Chinese have my plan with tremendous potential for the future and Brazil a country in terrific financial position.

If I were making the decision I would invest the US$ 200 billion dollars in Brazil.

The Chinese have a very large pool of money but at the end of the day the Chinese have to make a decision based on the financial evaluation of the competing countries - Brazil and USA – to see which country would be the recipient of their investment money.

My comments about the United States serve to complement the rest of the information.
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My comments about the United States serve to complement the rest of the information.

Thanks.You seemed to be petrified about the financial situation of the United States and convinced me that the Americans are in a s**tsville. My question: Why dont you move back to Brasil to contribute to our welfare? With brainy people like you, we should be able to attract investors from all over the world-not just the Chinese? In my opinion, you should move from NJ to SP.

In any case, I would like to await the comments of our blogger from China.

The blogger from China is a red herring. How Long is a Chinaman's name? , but jayteresopolis is not. He may be from New York, but not from Shanghai or Hong Kong. His language and syntax is better than the ambassador from China, he is a native speaker of English.

The blogger from China is a red herring. How Long is a Chinaman's name? , but jayteresopolis is not. He may be from New York, but not from Shanghai or Hong Kong. His language and syntax is better than the ambassador from China, he is a native speaker of English.

Points well taken and thanks. Just watch the drama unfolding!

What Really Happened on 9/11; Why All the Secrecy?
by Dr. Robert M. Bowman
There are conspiracy theories flying around the internet like seagulls around a landfill. Many people are convinced that George W. Bush knew what was going to happen and purposely allowed it to happen so he and his neo-conservative buddies could have the “new Pearl Harbor” they needed to justify their wars against Afghanistan and Iraq. Others go further. They are absolutely sure Cheney and company actually planned and carried out the attack (usually along with the Mossad). These folks don’t think there were ever any Arab hijackers at all.What is so disturbing is that their arguments are quite convincing. If an enormous cloud of suspicion is not to be permanently over the head of our government, the Bush Administration must “come clean,” releasing information thus far withheld from the American people. Clearing themselves of actively planning and carrying out the 9/11 attacks ought to be fairly easy. All they have to do is give the American people the answers to a few key questions: Why were there no Arab names on the passenger lists provided by the airlines?
What exactly is the status of the remote control system which conspiracy theorists say was used to hijack the airliners — a system designed to thwart hijackers by moving control from the c**kpit to ground controllers.
Why is there no evidence of flight 77 which supposedly flew into the Pentagon? Why was there such a small hole in the Pentagon? Why were no wings or engines found? Why are there no eyewitnesses that saw the plane? Give us the evidence that it happened the way you say and that the Pentagon was not hit by a U.S. missile and flight 77 shot down over the ocean.

There are lots more questions, but you get the idea. Answer just a few of the questions, and the most virulent of the conspiracy theories goes away. Dealing with the other major theory, however, (that Osama bin Laden really did it, but Bush et al let it happen) will require more answers. Various web sites have literally hundreds of unanswered questions. A group of New Jersey widows of men who died in the World Trade Center collapse have compiled quite a few. If this government is to have any credibility and avoid being seen as responsible for allowing thousands of Americans to die, it must answer these questions promptly and honestly. Here are just a few: What was in the CIA daily brief presented to the president on August 6, 2001, and why has it been withheld for so long? The Congressional committee and the independent commission have both requested copies and been refused. Why?
Why did John Ashcroft and top Pentagon officials cancel plans to fly commercial airlines the morning of 9/11? If they knew what was about to happen, why wasn’t it stopped? Who made all the millions of dollars selling short United and American Airlines just before 9/11? The hijackers obviously had no use for the money. Who besides them knew that those two particular airlines were going to suffer devastating losses on 9/11? Our intelligence agencies have Promis software that detects unusual stock trades. These trades were 25 times as great as usual. If, as has been reported, alarm bells were going off at our intelligence agencies on 9/10, why didn’t they beef up security on United and American flights? Why didn’t they react promptly to the hijackings? Why weren’t the hijacked airliners intercepted by jet fighters and shot down before they could fly into the WTC and Pentagon? Standard procedures call for any airliner that loses radio contact or goes off course to be intercepted. Four airliners were hijacked almost simultaneously, and it was obvious to air traffic controllers immediately. The transponders on the airliners were turned off. The hijackers were heard on the radio. And the four deviated drastically from their assigned courses. Was NORAD told? If not, why not? What did the air traffic controllers say, and to whom? Why did the FBI impound the tapes of those conversations? Why has the public never been told what was on them? Why weren’t the congressional investigators told? The independent commission? Who is hiding what, and why? If it was just a matter of incompetence or somebody not doing their job, why hasn’t anyone been fired or reprimanded? If someone ordered the standdown, who? and why? and why haven’t they been charged ? What was President Bush doing sitting in a classroom for half an hour after he was told that the country was under attack? Why didn’t the Secret Service rush him away from where everyone knew he was, unless they knew he wasn’t a target? If they knew that, how?

There are many more unanswered questions. If the PNAC oil mafia didn’t purposely let 9/11 happen so they could have their new Pearl Harbor and pursue their imperialist wars, then why don’t they answer some of these questions???

motivation, guys, why would a New Yorker pretend to be someone from China .. ? Someone asked if I was okay passing by Rio airport two days ago, I didn't know what happened, and googled news, and that's how i got here. I am personally very interested in economics, it was fun reading what people say. I don't know if investing 200b of anybody's money would help. You have to help yourself first. Joao asked my experience doing business in Brazil, well, it is a nightmare, before i even did anything. The paperworks are hell. I am not a businessman by the way, just trying to leverage my connections in China and Brazil, to see if there is anything i could do.

Richardo, i am accusing you of anything, was just commenting on other people's comments about China.
Angelinajolie, it is not true the Chinese govt controls all businesses. Initially there were all state owned until late 70's. I think at around mid-80's private businesses were allowed, and legalized throughout the years, and today many large successful businesses are privately owned.

Joao, if you were Brazilian, you know where teresopolis is, how could you "points well taken" lol

Reply to Joao da Silva


Joao wrote: “Thanks.You seemed to be petrified about the financial situation of the United States and convinced me that the Americans are in a s**tsville.”


I am not petrified about the financial situation of the United States and I have been writing about how the US economy is almost over the edge of the abyss.

Take a look on some of this information remember many of the people who are regular members of the Elite Trader Forums (they have about 84,000 members) are all kind of traders, including stocks, bonds, derivatives, real estate, and all kinds of financial instruments, basically anything related to money.

And these people are scattered around the world – there are traders from Asia, from Europe, from South America, and also from the United States, and Canada. And as you can see by what some people write they give to the group a general idea about what is happening on their corner of the world. I am sure there are also people from Central Banks reading these treads, and also economists, students, and the mainstream media.

Some of my articles about Brazil and China, and about other economic issues – I did send an email about these articles to every member of each economics department of the top 20 Universities in the United States including all the Nobel Prizes in Economics working at these institutions.

Some of these people got back to me and told me that they enjoyed reading my articles and for me to keep their name on my mailing lists of future articles.

I also receive direct email from famous authors who found out about my articles and they also send a copy of the information to their network of intellectuals – after a while I get swamped with emails to follow up and many times I don’t have the time to answer all these people properly.

What help me to earn some credibility with a lot of these people is that I wrote about a lot things before they came to past. It is much harder to do that and predict about future events than to just being a Monday morning quarterback.

I have been wrong a few times as well; before Lula got elected in 2002 I thought he was going to be a complete disaster for Brazil. I am glad I was wrong in that regard.

The s**t is hitting the fan in the United States in a bigger way than most people has realized as yet and I was surprise when Ben Bernanke did cut the Fed Funds rate by a half point – mostly because of the damage that that kind of move would do to the US dollar. And before he did his rate change I wrote about it on the ET forum.

When I posted the information the US dollar was trading at $ 1.37 to $ 1.00 euro – today the US dollar is trading close to $ 1.44 to $ 1.00 – a change of 7 cents. Let me see if China is happy with this US dollar devaluation versus the euro. The Chinese are holding about $ 1.2 trillion dollars in US dollar assets that means that during this short period of time the Chinese lost $ 90 billion dollars in the value of their investments when compared with the euro.

And I want to remind you that the US dollar decline has a long way to go and it is not only the Chinese who are seeing their US dollar investment going up in smoke – the Japanese also are holding $ 1.00 trillion dollars in US dollar assets, plus the fellows in the Middle East $ 1.6 trillion dollars and so forth.

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Reply to Joao da Silva


Basically the US dollar decline and meltdown is pushing the entire world closer to a major international monetary crisis as never seen before.

That’s why Brazil becomes a great option for the new Chinese investments that need to find a home – a more secure, and stable home than the US dollar.

I know that a lot people have been reading what I have been writing on Elite Trader Forum regarding the US dollar. And I have been right for years about what I have been saying about the US dollar – including the letter that I sent in December of 2001 to the president of the European Central Bank – you could read a copy of that letter on Elite Trader Forum. You can read some of what I wrote lately on this thread a few months old
and the thread has about 20,000 Hits

Central Banks and the US Dollar.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...adid=81958

Here is some further information about what it is about to happen to the US and possibly to the world economy.

New thread - Thread has about 2,000 Hits
Stock Market Crash in 2007 or 2009

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...did=106795

Here is another thread where people are discussing what is happening in real estate on their area of the country. This thread is just about 2 days old and already has 6,000 hits.

In a nutshell: the US economy is about to lose an estimated $ 4 trillion dollars in the value of real estate assets in the United States and that is going to put millions of Americans over the financial edge of the abyss.

That’s a major financial meltdown that will have a major impact in many other areas of the US economy.

The US government and other government from around the world have been trying to contain a widespread PANIC in financial markets – but at the end of the day they can do just so much.

This is not some newspaper article or other parts of the mainstream media trying to put a positive spin on the story to try to put out the fire – these are people exchange information about what they are seeing happen in their area of the country.

New thread - thread has 6,000 Hits
Total implosion of the U.S. Real Estate market

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...did=107353

Before I start boring you to death with this subject I don’t know if you had the chance to read an article that I wrote in January of 2005 and Brazzil magazine published on Feb 17, 2005. It was right after the last election here in the US and at that time everything did look very good – other than the Iraq War. I am sure you will enjoy reading that article.
Here is the Info:

Published on February 17, 2005 on Brazzil magazine.
“The First Great Depression of the New Millennium” By Ricardo C. Amaral

http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/1424/49/

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You wrote: “My question: Why don’t you move back to Brazil to contribute to our welfare? With brainy people like you, we should be able to attract investors from all over the world-not just the Chinese? In my opinion, you should move from NJ to SP.”


I am working on a project about a specific investment in Brazil and if that project gets off the ground I will have the change of traveling a lot to Brazil and I would be spending a lot of my time in Brazil.

I gave up on the United States and what helped me to make my decision was the fact that Al Gore decided not to run for president in 2008. I am sure that if he did run he would be the winner in November of 2008.

Almost 100 percent of Americans have not realized as yet that the US is in the edge of the abyss and ready to go down – I suspect that the free fall has already started anyway.

I have been hoping that Al Gore becomes the US president in 2008 since August of 2006 and you can read about many of the reasons on this thread at the ET Forum.

Thread started in August 2006 – thread has
Al Gore - Democratic Party candidate in 2008.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...adid=74835

With everything going in his favor and publicity about everything he does Al Gore would be a sure winner in 2008. But I don’t blame him for deciding not to run Al Gore understand the kind of wreckage the new US president will inherit from the current administration – complete chaos in the Middle East, massive problems with the entire US economic system that is in the process of unwinding many problems at the same time – the Perfect Storm. (I hope you guys know what I mean when I use the term the perfect storm.)

I can’t blame Al Gore for staying away from the coming nightmare – considering that today he is making a ton of money (today he is worth over $ 100 million dollars) and have a slide show to keep going on.

In US history Al Gore will be just a footnote on the books instead of becoming one of the a giants such as FDR – and Al Gore has the potential to become one of the best presidents in US history. But again there are certain periods in world history that separates the men from the boys. And we are at one of one these important turning points in history or you rise to the occasion or you don’t.

I am very disappointed with Al Gore’s decision at this point, but I wish him well and continued success with his slide show.

Thousands of Brazilians are returning to Brazil from the United States – there are many reasons for that. And a lot of other illegal immigrants are also starting to return home since they can’t find jobs around the US and the amount of money that this group of people sent home to their countries it is down by 30 percent or more in 2007 when compared with prior years. That reflect what is happening in the construction industry around the US an industry that used to employ a lot of these people.

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Death by taxes - Ask the Brits how it works…..

There is no need to ask the Brits,Ricardo. Our government can teach the Brits a trick or two.


Some people have the illusion that they US will have military bases around the world for the next 50 years.

If you spoke with anyone connected with the Soviet Union just 20 years ago – they have told you the same story about the Soviet Empire.

The Soviet Union died a slow death because of over spending with its Defense budget year after year. Now the United States is following into the footsteps of the Soviet Union how to piss away 100’s of billions in defense spending until your country implodes and goes bankrupt.

Ricardo!! You compare the U.S. with the Soviet Union???

See, it's statements like that, that for me, give many of your opinions no creedence whatsoever. The U.S. simply outspent the U.S.S.R, and one can do that when their GNP is 13 TRILLION dollars. Did you see how quickly the U.S.'s national debt was turned into a surplus shortly after Clinton took office in the early 90's? And at the time we had the largest deficit in the history of the world....just like now. One needs to put things in perspective, what may be a deficit of catastropic proportions for countries like russia, canada, brazil, china....is quite manageable for a country like the United States.

I'd love to hear what you say within the next 36-48 months when the dollar is back to 3-1 vs the real, back to 1:1 with the euro, and the U.S. deficit has been reduced by 75% or even to a surplus.

The UAE is investing a lot of money in the North of Brazil to develop tourism in that area of the country. Maybe that will help create many new jobs in the North of Brazil.

I guess you call a million dollars "a lot of money"? For the UAE, or any country, that's nothing.

The United States is the place where the Chinese are investing a ton of money by the end of 2007 the Chinese will be holding US$ 1.2 trillion dollars in US dollar assets.

Naturally....their not stupid. They realize the U.S. economy is slumping right now, and they're very aware that it will recover. Aftreall, all markets are cyclical.

posted on: October 25, 2007 | about stocks: BRK.A / BRK.B
Liz Claman of Fox Business News did a one-hour interview with Warren Buffett last week. In the excerpt below, Buffett reveals his 'mystery' currency position that he mentioned at this year's Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting:

BUFFETT: Ah, the mystery currency.

CLAMAN: ... that we talked about back in May and everybody was guessing. What was it?

BUFFETT: Well, I'll preface it by saying that I've decided rather than following this idea through currencies, I would buy businesses with lots of earnings abroad, because that's a better way, in my view, to play a bearishness on the dollar.

But I did have this one position and it's kind of an interesting position, because it's quite unlikely. If you had told me 10 years ago I would buy the Brazilian real, you would -- I would have thought you were crazy.

Brazil, in the last century, has had five different currencies that went basically to zero. I mean, they turned into confetti. It was almost a joke and whether it was the cruzeiro or whatever it may have been.

In the last five years, the Brazilian currency in terms of the American currency has doubled in value. The real has doubled against the U.S. currency and the more interesting point is that during much of that time, the Brazilian government, in effect, has been supporting the U.S. dollar.

Now, nobody would have believed, 10 or 20 years ago, that Brazilians would be supporting the U.S. dollar.

CLAMAN: Would be supporting the U.S.

BUFFETT: But they have been buying dollars in the market. They have been building up their own reserves. Their current account has turned into a good surplus and we have been, in effect, behaving like people attributed to the Brazilians or the Argentineans 10 or 20 years ago.

So the Brazilians have been supporting our dollar to the best of their ability, but they still have had that doubling in the value of their own currency.

CLAMAN: So did you buy some reals?

BUFFETT: Yes, we've got some reals. But I'm not telling anybody to buy reals. We'll probably be out...

CLAMAN: Exactly. I mean, this is right for you and your investors, but not necessarily for the average person.

BUFFETT: Right, right. And we may be cashing out of the reals and we bought a few Brazilian bonds, too, but -- and this is not a huge position. We'll make $100 million or something like that out of the...

CLAMAN: Not a huge position, $100 million. I know in the grand scheme of things...

BUFFETT: Well, it really isn't.

CLAMAN: ... to people listening, it's a lot.

BUFFETT: But it's not the kind of currency that you could take the size position as in the euro or something of the sort.

But it was -- it's sort of fascinating to me that we would sit here in the year 2007 and daily the Brazilian government would be supporting the U.S. currency.

Adlai Ewing Stevenson. Takes me awhile to Get It. Not the sharpest knife in the rack, as one might say. I´ll re-read your book, What I Think, and maybe Putting First Things First also.

...
written by aes, 2007-10-26 10:20:49

posted on: October 25, 2007 | about stocks: BRK.A / BRK.B
Liz Claman of Fox Business News did a one-hour interview with Warren Buffett last week. In the excerpt below, Buffett reveals his 'mystery' currency position that he mentioned at this year's Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting:

BUFFETT: Ah, the mystery currency.

CLAMAN: ... that we talked about back in May and everybody was guessing. What was it?

BUFFETT: Well, I'll preface it by saying that I've decided rather than following this idea through currencies, I would buy businesses with lots of earnings abroad, because that's a better way, in my view, to play a bearishness on the dollar.

But I did have this one position and it's kind of an interesting position, because it's quite unlikely. If you had told me 10 years ago I would buy the Brazilian real, you would -- I would have thought you were crazy.

Brazil, in the last century, has had five different currencies that went basically to zero. I mean, they turned into confetti. It was almost a joke and whether it was the cruzeiro or whatever it may have been.

In the last five years, the Brazilian currency in terms of the American currency has doubled in value. The real has doubled against the U.S. currency and the more interesting point is that during much of that time, the Brazilian government, in effect, has been supporting the U.S. dollar.

Now, nobody would have believed, 10 or 20 years ago, that Brazilians would be supporting the U.S. dollar.

CLAMAN: Would be supporting the U.S.

BUFFETT: But they have been buying dollars in the market. They have been building up their own reserves. Their current account has turned into a good surplus and we have been, in effect, behaving like people attributed to the Brazilians or the Argentineans 10 or 20 years ago.

So the Brazilians have been supporting our dollar to the best of their ability, but they still have had that doubling in the value of their own currency.

CLAMAN: So did you buy some reals?

BUFFETT: Yes, we've got some reals. But I'm not telling anybody to buy reals. We'll probably be out...

CLAMAN: Exactly. I mean, this is right for you and your investors, but not necessarily for the average person.

BUFFETT: Right, right. And we may be cashing out of the reals and we bought a few Brazilian bonds, too, but -- and this is not a huge position. We'll make $100 million or something like that out of the...

CLAMAN: Not a huge position, $100 million. I know in the grand scheme of things...

BUFFETT: Well, it really isn't.

CLAMAN: ... to people listening, it's a lot.

BUFFETT: But it's not the kind of currency that you could take the size position as in the euro or something of the sort.

But it was -- it's sort of fascinating to me that we would sit here in the year 2007 and daily the Brazilian government would be supporting the U.S. currency.

Interesting.

I have the same feelings....I'm wanting my money out of brazil...quickly. When we bought our assets here the british pound was at a minimum 5:1 and for a while was at 5.7:1

It's now at 3.7:1

I'm all for liquidating our current assets at the moment. Our beachfront property has actually doubled in value since we purchased 3.5 years ago but we purchased for 60% of the value at that time....so with the devaluation of the dollar/GBP over the last couple years and land appreciation over the last 3.5 years we have made quite a nice profit from those factors alone. But imo this weak dollar and strong real isn't going to last too much longer. I would love to get out right now.

After the Cruzado turned to nothing, the streets where still there, the buildings, the fields, the people, the plants, the stores, still there. The Cruzado was worth little but the durable goods and real estate the Cruzado had purchased were still as useful as before.

After WWI when the German currency became worthless, it didn´t take Germany long to come back.

What I am picking up now is the idea that when the dollar collapses, it´s all over for the USA. No comeback. It´s different.

The USA could not exist as it is now without foreign trade. But it is the only large country that could exist at all based solely on it's own resources. A country needs land, water, food, fuel, the ability to produce durable goods, tech goods, wood, iron, non-ferrous metals, defense materiel. The USA could if it had to, feed, clothe, and move its own people. Maybe not in the way they have become accustomed to.

The dollar is an IOU. A check. You have 10,000 dollars out in checks. A courier is taking them to the states. The plane goes down. You keep the stuff you bought with the dollars, but your account never gets charged.

Or, in a bind, you stop payment. Depending on the circumstances, you might be in trouble. Oe maybe not.

What if you could travel around the world having a good time and charge it all on your Amex, and then by some means pay it back at pennies on the dollar? You couldn´t, say you.

No, you couldn´t. But the government can. It´s called fractional banking.

Now, how did Brazil get out of the inflation habit? Used to be, they came to the end of the month with less Ncr´s than they needed to pay retirees, military, prefeituras, etc etc. So they only had a billion, and needed two billion. So they printed another billion. And then in the Sarney days successfully marketed the idea that inflation was the fault of business people and housewives who didn´t look for the best price.

So when FHC came in they started doing it like in the states. Rolling it over. We still come to the end of the month with more bills than money, but now intead of just printing more we package it for our grandchildren to pay the investors back someday. Maybe. Or not.

This is not an original idea with me.

I noticed in your note above that you were careful not to say that the 200 billion idea was original with you. And I also noticed that you did not deny nor even mention the question as to whether you are being paid to lobby for this idea.

And everyone around here knows that the trite phrase "think outside the box" drives me up the wall. "No such thing as zero sum" also.

I´m not denying that I have no idea what those terms mean, though.

Some of us are just simple folk with minimal skills.

don't take this as gospel, but I think "think outside the box" is a term that was popularized in a Vietnamese prison camp.

And then in the Sarney days successfully marketed the idea that inflation was the fault of business people and housewives who didn´t look for the best price.

Talking of Sarney´s days, do you remember his minister Dilso Funaro trying to enlist the help of FAB to track down the cattle that was supposedly hidden by the ranchers and ask the Army folks to take them to the slaughter houses? That was a tragicomedy. Sarney also coined a name for business people: Bakunin

Ric: “I noticed in your note above that you were careful not to say that the 200 billion idea was original with you.”

I am sorry that I have to bring to your attention this, but you are one of these people who can’t grasp even the obvious.

It is silly that you brought this subject up, but if you were smart enough you would have figure out that this was my original idea – it is there in black and white in front of your nose but you can’t see it.

Go read the articles and see if you can figure out now that I am telling you that the answer it is there – maybe you don’t know how to connect the dots, but the proof is in writing.

By the way, your posting about Germany after WW I there collapse and compare it with a collapse of the US dollar it’s pathetic. That shows that you don’t understand what the US dollar mean to the world today and how the entire global monetary system works.


You also said: “The USA could not exist as it is now without foreign trade. But it is the only large country that could exist at all based solely on it's own resources.”

Wrong again since the US has very little domestic production of oil compared with its vast consumption. The US economy with stop to a halt without imported oil.

On the other hand the Brazilian economy is self-sufficient regarding most of its energy needs and so on.

You said a lot of besteiras on your post. But one the things that they are not doing is leaving a pile of debt to the grandchildren to pay like in the US economy.

The Brazilian total government outstanding debt is the lowest that I can remember as a percentage of GDP – and today Brazil is in greater financial position than many countries around the world.

It is no coincidence that the real doubled its value against the US dollar in the last few years.


You also said: “And everyone around here knows that the trite phrase "think outside the box" drives me up the wall.”

It is very clear to me why that phrase would disturb you.

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I do have an awful time connecting the dots. Grasping the obvious. But I´m learning so much from your posts.

In terms of fuel, I was thinking about the fact that some experts say the USA has enough coal to supply all energy needs for 500 to 700 years. And Canadian oil sand production is giving us barrels of crude for $20. Coal can be made into liquid fuel.

Land: in South America only the Argentine Pampas have anything approaching the quality, but not the size, of the American Midwest with topsoil many feet deep.

There is not a single first world country in the tropical zone with the exception of tiny Singapore. May Brazil be the first to achieve that status.

Will you get paid a comission based on the 200 billion or will they just pay you by the article. How does that work, is it by the word, or by the hit or feedback comment? Because if it´s by comment we can keep this thing going as long as you want. Just tring to be helpful.

The collapse of the 'dot com bubble' and the 911 sent the market precipitously south. The U.S. was under attack physically as well as psychologically. Facilitating the market's recovery stabalized the growing fear, angst and uncertainty in the American psyche. The Feds sustained an absurdly low interest rate inorder to prevent a recession and a contiued market slide. The attack on the U.S. was psychologically devestating. Had the market continued its descent the devestation would have been pervasive. Gold at this time is $290. The world markets still have faith in the value of the dollar vis a vis gold. But as the U.S. builds to war and massive deficit spending, the faith in the dollar weakens and gold begins its ascent to $750. Generally the Feds could counter this by increasing interest rates, but this produces negative preasure on the market; and in time of war the psychology of the country is paramount. In a time of war/cataclysm there is uncertainty. To compound the uncertainty by allowing the market to fall is not an option in a time of war. Quoting Warren Buffet, "That gets to the first of the economic variables that affected stock prices in the two periods--interest rates. In economics, interest rates act as gravity behaves in the physical world. At all times, in all markets, in all parts of the world, the tiniest change in rates changes the value of every financial asset. You see that clearly with the fluctuating prices of bonds. But the rule applies as well to farmland, oil reserves, stocks, and every other financial asset. And the effects can be huge on values. If interest rates are, say, 13%, the present value of a dollar that you're going to receive in the future from an investment is not nearly as high as the present value of a dollar if rates are 4%." The Chicken Little's are screaming, "the sky is falling," imagine if the market was at 8,000 and the value of everyone's IRAs was plummiting. Imagine, Iraq, a recession and the coming military actions against the archytype of global terrorism, IRAN. But this dread, this fear, this panic does not exist. Nothing goes to zero as Louis Rukeyser used to say in the crash of '87. Never underestimate the power of the American economy.

Joao asked my experience doing business in Brazil, well, it is a nightmare, before i even did anything. The paperworks are hell.

If you know our language and culture, you wouldnt have felt that way. We are accustomed to such nightmares.

I am not a businessman by the way, just trying to leverage my connections in China and Brazil, to see if there is anything i could do.

Thank you and for your offer to help both China & Brasil. I think that you can be of big help,by reading Mr.Amaral´s entire article and getting your government interested in investing $200 billions here in Brazil. The plan is good and may be you can review the figures and modify them according to the current costs.

I don't know if investing 200b of anybody's money would help.

That is a negative attitude to have before reading all the 4 parts of Mr.Amaral´s article. It will certainly help both China and Brasil.

Joao, if you were Brazilian, you know where teresopolis is, how could you "points well taken" lol

I know where Teresopolis is located and my apologies for any misunderstanding. AES and I were merely complimenting you for your excellent English.He couldnt believe that a non American can speak English as well as he does. Btw, he used to teach English to your countrymen a long time ago.However, he doesnt realize that many a time, the students can surpass their teachers. A bit old fashioned in his thoughts, but arent we all? Probably we would not have questioned your nationality if you had ID'd yourself as "Jayshangai". Once again my profound apologies.

Now lets get to work and see how the Plan can be implemented with OUR help.

You are so right on. Your analysis of the pyschology of the US people is right.

We all thought 87 was going to keep going, and it didn´t. I thought the Y2K was going to be bigger than it was. My friends made a lot of money on it. Harry Browne told us 30 years ago that the depression was coming. Not to say it still isn´t.

The number of analysts who actually remember 1929 and the depression is thinning out, and they had a whole different perspective. Doom and gloom predictions as some of the above could be called seem to actually help the stock market.

The Mother Earth News used to tell us how our life style was unsustainable, and ruinous to the environment. One of the facts that makes me smile broadly is that Mother is no longer independent but part of a large publishing company.

The same one that proudly brings you Capper's Weekly and Grit.

I love it....

Think in terms of asking for 250 billion instead of 200. We´ve lost a lot of momentum just since this series of articles began. The longer the Chinese wait, the less they will get for their investment.

Bo wrote: :”…The U.S. simply outspent the U.S.S.R, and one can do that when their GNP is 13 TRILLION dollars. Did you see how quickly the U.S.'s national debt was turned into a surplus shortly after Clinton took office in the early 90's? And at the time we had the largest deficit in the history of the world....just like now. One needs to put things in perspective, what may be a deficit of catastropic proportions for countries like russia, canada, brazil, china....is quite manageable for a country like the United States.”


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Here we have a good picture how the current Bush administration views its finances.
In April of 2005 I posted the following on the ET Forum:

I heard on my car radio someone very upset about George W. Bush’s comment this past week that basically the i.o.u.’s that the US government gives to anyone when the US government is raising money are nothing more than worthless pieces of paper.

The New York Times also had an article about the subject of April 7, 2005, on Pg A22, “Shameless Photo-Op” and the article said the following:

“Imagine this: On George W. Bush's next trip to Japan, where that country’s $ 712 billion in United States government bonds is stored. There, as the cameras roll, he announces that the bonds, backed by the full faith and credit of the United States, are, in fact worthless i.o.u.’s. He does the same thing when he visits China and so on around the world, until he has personally repudiated the entire $ 2 trillion of United States debt held by foreigners.

…on Twesday when he visited the office of the Federal Bureau of Public Debt in Parkersburg, W. Va. He posed next to a file cabinet that holds the $ 1,7 trillion in Treasury securities that make up the Social Security trust fund. He tossed off a comment to the effect that the bonds were not “real assets.” Later, in a speech at a nearby university, he said: “There is no trust fund. Just i.o.u.’s that I saw firsthand.”

…Mr. Bush wants Americans to believe that the trust fund is a joke. But if the trust fund is a joke, so is the full faith and credit of the United States.

…Still, casting aspersions on a basic obligation of the United States government is insulting and irresponsible.”


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I am going to post some more information that I wrote to show to you - A Reality Check for the United States.

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I wrote and posted the following on the ET Forum in December of 2006:
By the way, my screen name on that forum is South America.

December 28, 2006

South America: The priorities of the Bush administration have been consistently screw up since 2001. Since March of 2003 the United States wasted over US$ 500 billion dollars fighting a war against Iraq – and for all practical purposes that war has been lost for a long time, but the Bush administration is too slow in grasping what is going on in the Middle East including in Iraq - and they will continue to piss away valuable resources abroad that will be needed right here at home to keep going the US healthcare system.

In the meantime some priorities here in the United States which affect the lives of just about most families including Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and everybody else in between the two extremes – and that priority is healthcare.

In the last few years I did meet a number of people who were affected by a disease called Alzheimer’s. I became more aware of this terrible disease when I was exposed to people afflicted by that disease over the years. A few people that I used to know – brilliant people in every sense – they became like a 2 years old child, and even though their bodies still healthy their minds were completely gone.

And their minds deteriorate to a point were they don’t recognize even close friends and family members. It is a very stressful, frustrating and depressing experience for most family and friends to go through.

On November 3, 2006 The New York Times published an article - “The Memory Hole” and the article said: ”…Nor could he have foreseen that with the significant rise in longevity over the 20th century, cases of Alzheimer’s disease would skyrocket into the millions.

Paradoxically, we have created a civilization of such health and longevity that a disease that was once rare now threatens us all.

There’s no good way to die, but some are far worse – and far costlier – than others. The plodding progression of Alzheimer’s devastates not only the patient but also a wide circle of family and friends forced to witness and participate in the long decline. The disease costs a fortune in medical and nursing fees and lost wages; a conservative estimate is that the current five million cases in the United States add up to more than $ 100 billion annually.

If that sounds like a lot of money, keep in mind that the baby boomers have not started turning 65 yet…5 million Americans already have Alzheimer’s – about 100 million people worldwide – and national costs could reach $ 1 trillion, threatening to bankrupt our entire healthcare system.”

I found very interesting that article published by The New York Times, because I understood exactly what the article was trying to say. About 4 years ago one of my best friends was told that he had Alzheimer’s even though he was only 70 years old at the time.

This past summer his Alzheimer’s had deteriorated to a point that I decided to help his wife check the price of nursing homes because he was getting to the point were he needed 24 hours care.

I went to about 15 nursing homes in Bergen County, Passaic County and so on and checked the price of nursing homes in our area – the first thing that I learned is that only specialized nursing homes accept patients with Alzheimer’s – and these nursing homes are geared to give 24/7 care to the Alzheimer’s patients.

Now comes the shocking part – the annual cost of nursing home care for Alzheimer’s patients ranged from a minimum of $ 96K to a more expensive $ 150K per year.

I could not find a single nursing home in our entire area that took care of Alzheimer patients that cost less than $ 96K per year.

Then I was thinking how most people of the middle class or the poor people for that matter could afford nursing home care for loved ones who were afflicted by Alzheimer’s.

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That experience served as a reality check for me for what is happening in the United States today regarding healthcare

I just finished reading the latest book by Alvin Toffler “Revolutionary Wealth” and one of the items that called my attention on his book was what he said about Alzheimer’s – and quoting from his book: “The Panic Zone…But James R. Knickman and Emily K. Snell of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation assert that this number "underestimates the economic resources devoted to long-term health care…because most care is delivered informally by family and friends and is not included in economic statistics…It has been estimated that the economic value of such informal care-giving in the United States, family care for Alzheimer’s patients alone had a value exceeding $ 100 billion in 2004. And none of these figures includes unpaid care giving for short-term problems.

Government and health industry officials worry that an aging population will mean more disease and debility, and therefore even higher costs.

…On top of that, a healthcare executive warns a congressional subcommittee that “the U.S. healthcare system is about to implode, and Alzheimer’s disease will be the detonator” because the baby boomer generation is reaching the age of the onset of that terrible illness.

The fact that health conditions in most other countries are worse does not change the reality. The world’s most expensive health care system is deeply dysfunctional – and getting more so….”

When I was reading Alvin Toffler’s book I also understood immediately what he was trying to say because of my current experience with my friend who has Alzheimer’s, and the other personal experience that I had in the last few years when I came in contact with other people who also had Alzheimer’s - (mostly friends or people who I used to know).

Alzheimer’s is a time bomb that is ticking all around the United States – and that is the type of bomb that explodes very slowly creating havoc in the lives of millions and millions of Americans – and no family will be immune to this devastating disease Alzheimer’s will affect Republicans in the same way that will affect Democrats and so on….

In a nutshell: we are all in the same boat regarding this terrible disease – and the high costs related to Alzheimer’s disease will affect everyone.

The United States is already in the beginning stages of this massive health care crisis, and what we are experiencing today it is just the tip of the iceberg.


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Since I posted this information on ET Forum in December of 2006, I learned from some television news programs that the situation is even worse than describes above because they are finding out that many people from the baby boom generation started getting Alzheimer’s at a much younger age and many baby boomers are getting the disease on their 50’s – and the medical establishment don’t know why.

Another good friend of mine his single sister also was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease during the summer of 1997 and she was 74 years old at that time – her brother found a nursing home in Montclair, NJ where she has been living for almost 10 years.

After the lawyers sold her house and added to her savings she had over $ 500K to be used towards her nursing home care – about 4 years ago all the money was gone and since then Medicaid has been paying her nursing home. She is about 84 years old today and she can hang on for a few more years.

Over the years I went 4 times to the nursing home to visit her with my friend, and I can tell you that place is a very depressing place to visit even for a half hour – never mind having to live day after day in such a place. But as you walk in the corridors of the nursing home you can see all these people just sitting on wheelchairs outside their rooms or just laying in bed waiting to die – it is not a pretty sight.

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I wrote and posted the following on the ET Forum in December of 2006:

Instead of wasting trillions of borrowed US dollars (borrowed from the other countries around the world) to wage wars around the world – the United States government should instead focus its attention and resources to a more important matter related to the future of the United States – “The Ageing of America.”

Looking at strategies to deal with aging America it is by far a better use for all this borrowed money than used it to wage wars in foreign lands.

Why we are at a critical point regarding this ageing issue in the USA?

The issue is critical because the baby boomers — those born between 1946 and 1964 — began turning 60 this year and are rapidly approaching retirement age. By 2030, the number of people over age 65 in the United States will exceed 72 million — double the number in the year 2000. And with possible breakthroughs in science and technologies the number of Americans over age 65 can be even higher by 2030 – maybe as high as 75 million people.

Most Americans are not aware of the magnitude of this problem and it is a problem that affects all of us – Republicans, Democrats, Independents, Catholics, Protestants, Jews, the rich, the poor, and so on – This should be among the major problems to be solved in the coming years and not be a problem that is not even showing in the radar of the Bush administration.

Today the United States has about 39 million people over the age of 65. But by 2030 this figure should grow to over 72 million people according to the US Census Bureau.

How is this going to happen?

One day in 2030 we will wake up in the United States and from nowhere the old folks multiplied themselves from 39 million people to 72 million people overnight?

No. That’s not the way that is going to happen.

What is going to happen in reality is that every year from 2006 to 2030 we will have approximately 1.4 million new people over age 65 to add to the number of people already over age 65.

Every single year we have a net gain of 1.4 new old folks to add to this pool of people -(The annual increase of 1.4 million is a net figure that takes into account the new group that turned 65 during the year less the old folks that died during that year.)

The best way to represent what is happening with this age group of people is to show a snow ball going downhill – at the top of the mountain we have a very small snowball going down hill - and as the snowball goes down hill the snowball increases in volume very fast as it picks more snow as it is rolling down hill on the mountain. By the time the snowball reaches the bottom of the mountain we have this massive snowball. The snowball grew so much in size with a little bit of snow at the time.


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It is bad enough news that the population aged 65 and older is doubling in size between 2006 and 2030, but that is not the entire story – there is more bad news.

Research regarding the old folks shows that Medicare expenses increases drastically for the population who is classified as oldest-old (those aged 85 and older) – this group of people is supposed to grow from 4.7 million people in 2003 to 10 million people in 2027 and again double to 21 million people by 2050. The latter increase will reflect the movement of Baby Boomers into the oldest-old category.

As we dig it deeper this story gets even more interesting – The 1990 census reported that 37,000 Americans were centenarians. The number grew to 50,000 in Census 2000 – and it is projected that by 2030 the United States will have over 1 million people on this age category. Centenarians are the folks who are at least 100 years old.

It is not going to be a pretty sight and most Americans have not realized as yet that this is a “train wreck” that is coming very soon – it is a process that is under way – that is not some information that people put together to just scare the population – This is the real thing and the figures include all of us that are living in the United States today – our parents, our grandparents, our uncles, and all sort of relatives – These figures are made of people who are alive and living today in the United States.

Can the United States afford to keep this war going indefinitely in Iraq and costing a fortune in borrowed money, when the United States could use instead these hundreds of billions of US borrowed dollars to prepare the country for the ageing of its population?

Today the US government has $ 9 trillion of cumulative outstanding debt, and also a liability estimated to be around $ 70 trillion dollars. (Social security, Medicare, Medicaid, Government workers pensions, and so on)

The states in the US also have a cumulative debt of over $ 2 trillion dollars, and I don’t know the amount of the states other outstanding liabilities such as state government workers pensions and so on.

Combined the United States has over $ 11 trillion dollars of cumulative debt outstanding today, plus another estimated $ 70 trillion dollars in new federal government liabilities that are coming due very soon and they are related to the ageing American population - the baby boomers.

Today, the United States has to borrow over $ 2 billion dollars per day for its economy to stay afloat – the US has mortgaged the future of the US economy for many generations to come

Today, the best export item from the US economy – and there is no question about it - are good paying jobs. I have no idea how the United States will be able to pay its bills in the future since its economy will not be able to generate the cash flow necessary to pay this gigantic amount of expenses that are in the pipeline.

I did not mention above the extra $ 2 trillion dollars the United States will have to spend related to the fiascos in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Think in terms of asking for 250 billion instead of 200. We´ve lost a lot of momentum just since this series of articles began. The longer the Chinese wait, the less they will get for their investment.

That was the precise reason, why I requested our friend Jaypetropolis to check the figures and revise them. I forgot to tell him to take this particular fact you mentioned into consideration and revise UPWARDS.

One more thing to consider on the subject of massive expenses related to the Ageing of the American population.

The costs of Medicare and Medicaid are going to explode because of the information that I gave to you guys on the above posting. One thing to keep in mind is that for many years 2/3’s of the money that the US government spend with Medicare – it is spent in the last 3 weeks before the person dies – the US government spend a fortune on the old folks just before they die And we will have a lot of senior citizens dying in the coming years with a price tag that will shock a lot of people. .

And when it is time for budget cuts no politician will have the guts to fool around with the benefits of the senior citizens because they are a very powerful group of people – the power of the vote and they have the time to destroy the career of any politician who try to mess around with them.

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The costs of Medicare and Medicaid are going to explode because of the information that I gave to you guys on the above posting. One thing to keep in mind is that for many years 2/3’s of the money that the US government spend with Medicare – it is spent in the last 3 weeks before the person dies – the US government spend a fortune on the old folks just before they die And we will have a lot of senior citizens dying in the coming years with a price tag that will shock a lot of people. .

Ricardo, have you ever been or taken any relatives or friends to a public hospital in Brasil? In case you are not aware, the CPMF of 0.38% charged on all the bank transactions in Brasil generates around 38 Billion Reais per year. It was suppsed to be temperory , to improve the public health care and the taxation was to be over by this year end. It has been in existance for almost 12 years and we have not seen any improvement in the health care,because all the money is being channeled for other purposes. The government is pushing for extension of this tax for another 4 years and I have no doubt that it will be. We will continue paying this and get nothing in return.

For our senior citizens there are two alternatives: a) Commit suicide b) ask the doctor to administer euthanasia.

Please do not talk about Alzhyemer's to me. I had experience with a close member of the family 12 years ago. His sons didnt give a s**t and the hospitals did not want to admit him either. I had to take him in my car everytime there was a health problem with him.When he died at the age of 87, I thanked the God almighty for alleviating my sufferings too.

The health care system has detriorated in Brasil considerably during his demise, in spite of CPMF of 0.38%. Will continue doing so.

The health care system has detriorated in Brasil considerably during his demise, in spite of CPMF of 0.38%. Will continue doing so.

Sorry, please read it as "The health care system has detriorated in Brasil considerably SINCE his demise, in spite of CPMF of 0.38%. Will continue doing so."

Let´s see, I was going to make a comment about your TV watching. Just can´t remember what it was. Wait a minute, now, who are you, again? Oh yes, I knew that.

Can you prescribe something for my lack of memory? He did? When?

"And we will have a lot of senior citizens dying in the coming years...." I think you're back on track as a Futurist with this observation. ..."with a price tag..." Yes, I have noticed that death is often a problem, especially among the older folks, (almost syndromic, one might say) and it costs money to go through the formalities and burial.

It´s worse in the USA than here, as are many aspects of life. And death.

You´re Ricardo? I have a son named Ricardo. No you are not, he´s just a little kid.

Eu fala Portuguese, i can tell you the bureaucracy in Brazil is as bad China was 30 years ago. Get rid of the bureaucracies, Brazil will grow without 200B investment. Most of them are stacked against little guys even though some of them appear to be trying to protect them.

Money is the blood of economy. When the government puts a 0.38% fee on all bank transactions, it slows down or diverts the flows. it doesn't matter what the fee is for, it is a bad bad bad idea.

Overall, comparing to China, Brazil is a much maturer economy, has substantial wealth and rich culture heritage accumulated in its society. Chins is not as good as you guys think, and Brazil is not as desperate either. Instead of 200B investment, here is what I could offer to the people of Brazil:

- what I would do for Brazil if I had the power -

1. tax the land owners
2. lower property tax
3. labor law reform, pro-labor is pro slavery-like salary.
4. get rid of the bank transaction fees, lower income tax as well
5. hire some Chinese military officers to deal with the favelas.
6. pro immigration, pro international investment

These alone, guys, worth more than 200Billion USD.

is pretty good! At least the doctors were trained in medical schools. I also found they spend more time with patients and actually care about them, which is not so true in China or in the US. In the US you are a statistic, and in China you are an ATM.

Don't complain unless you experienced all three of them

quote "Ricardo, I am of the opinion that we are not doing enough to attract the foreign investments like the Chinese are doing. It would be interesting to hear the opinion of our new blogger from China. Thank God, we dont have to learn Mandarin to hear his opinion, as his English is very good."

If I am learning English and Portuguese, what makes you think you shouldn't learn Chinese ... help starts from oneself. Asking about 200B from imaginary entity (China, is not a person, it is a collection of all walks of life you name it) is a lot of hot air. Learning Chinese is an actionable good start, and I found a Chinese school, surprise, in Juiz de Fora.

I was at the airport at the same time, but i didn't see it happen. Anyway, calling a Chinese Chinaman in America is same as calling a black n****r. So, AES, if i was a Black, would you refer me as the n****r, if not, why not?

近义词 名 中国

"How Long is a Chinaman's name" is a very old classic of American vaudvillian comedy, the joke of course that How Long can be both a question and a proper name. It is similar to the "Who's on First Routine." I do not use the word "Chinaman"; it is a slang word from the 1920's. It may be used in the Mid West still, but they still say things like 'Eye-raq', 'Eye-ran, and 'Eye-talian. The correct word would be a Chinese to indicate a singular resident of China, the possessive of which would be a Chinese's (which is so evidently intuitively awkward). The correct construction would be "How Long is a Chinese's name." As to calling you a 'n****r if you were black', only if you were my friend and then it would be something like . . .hey n****r what's happening? We would have to be tight, blood brothers more or less (blood is also a Black slang word for Black) ebonics is filled with double entendres. It is filled with nuance, inflection, feeling. Ebonics is spoken with an emotional openness that is generally lacking in the spoken language of white America. Things are said in ebonics on the timbre of the word, on the harmonic. It a much more an 'up front' language. It is less deceitful. The meaning is in the meaning not the word. It is what is behind the word that is meant.

名 伪君子;伪善者 by any other name.

Jay wrote” “Instead of 200B investment…”

You are missing the point of my article altogether.

There are many things that Brazil could do that would turn the Brazilian economy into a powerhouse in no time.

If we had people with vision right now at the high levels of government in Brazil we would be moving as quickly as possible with a plan to adopt the new Asian currency in partnership with China, Japan, and South Korea.

The sooner they have that currency ready to compete in world markets against the US dollar and the euro the better would be for the countries that I mentioned.

Under the umbrella of this new Asian currency the entire ball game changes for Brazil – a change to the better and long-term currency stability.

Property values would explode in Brazil because Brazil would have eliminated the currency risk. Most people still living in the dark ages regarding their understanding of how the international monetary system works today – and many people want to keep their old currency of their country (a relic of the past) than adopt the new monetary system of the 21st Century.

I wrote more than 10 articles on this subject since 1998. I even gave an actual example to see if people started grasping my point. I have been the lone soul writing about this subject for almost 10 years now and even when I mentioned this subject to my friends and family members who were bank executives, and well known newspapermen in Brazil – all of them looked to me surprised and then I could see on their faces that they thought I had gone out of my mind.

And the replies that I got from the people who took the time to write to me on that subject – they were all against Brazil adopting the euro as I suggested until 2 years ago – and against Brazil adopting the new Asian currency – a currency that I suggested Brazil should adopt from day one of the new currency.

The adoption of such new currency would bring the international stability to Brazil that only a major currency such as the euro and the new Asian currency could provide.

When Brazilians learned that the new currency of Brazil was really solid and was not going up in smoke as many times before – then the Brazilians would bring back to Brazil all the money that Brazilians have stashed outside Brazil on the Caiman Island, in Swiss bank accounts, in Europe, and in the United States. About 4 or 5 years ago Brazilians had about $ 250 billion dollars outside Brazil.

I don’t know how much money the Brazilians brought back to Brazil in the last few years – but the biggest reason all this money was sent to other countries it was to protect it from inflation and a weak Brazilian currency such as the Cruzado, the New Cruzado, the Cruzeiro, the New Cruzeiro, the Cruz Credo, and finally – the Real.

The reality is in today’s world the money that the Brazilian Central Bank has in foreign exchange reserves about US$ 163 billion to defend the real – it would go up in smoke in no time if international speculators decided to take that currency apart.

I know Brazil can sell Petrobras, and few other assets on the hands of the government and can also burn that money trying to defend the indefensible – there is too much speculative money available and their amounts are mind boggling.

Why pay top dollar for companies that are so vulnerable to an international currency attack? It is easier to undermine that currency create havoc inside that economy and afterwards all you have to do it is to pick up the pieces that survived at bargain prices at that point the people who still in business would be begging to find someone to rescue them.

Brazilians can continue to follow the Argentinean model - they privatized even the zoo in Buenos Aires – after Argentina was put out of business – the Argentinean people ended up with nothing since their government had given everything away.

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If you want to learn why Brazil should adopt the New Asian Currency then check these articles – after you read them you will have a better understanding of what I am talking about.

Since 1998 I wrote at least 10 articles about: Why Brazil should adopt the Euro as the Brazilian new currency – and in the last 2 years Why Brazil should adopt the New Asian Currency as the Brazilian new currency Here are some articles about it:


On March 2, 2007 Brazzil Magazine published my latest article “Here Is Why Brazil Should Adopt the New Asian Currency” - you can read it on the following web site:

http://www.brazzil.com/content...llComments


June 2002 - “The Euro Now”

http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/6353/67/


June 2003 – “Should Brazil Adopt a New Currency?”

http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/564/32/


By the way, when the first articles on this series were published in 1999, and 2000 – the Radio of the America got in contact with me – they wanted to interview me to broadcast it in South America.

I told them that I was not interested on the interview, but I would answer in writing any questions that they had regarding my articles.

I knew that Radio of the Americas belonged to the US government and it was used to broadcast propaganda to the Latin American countries. And the United States had no interest whatsoever and most likely would be against Brazil adopting the euro and now the New Asian Currency. The United States can't afford to start losing members of its circle of influence.

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I mentioned above that: “Brazilians have stashed outside Brazil on the Caiman Island, in Swiss bank accounts, in Europe, and in the United States. About 4 or 5 years ago Brazilians had about $ 250 billion dollars outside Brazil.”

But Brazilians are agile with their money affairs, since they were well trained during the high inflation years in Brazil and they could have moved their money from US dollars into euros a few years back – if that was the case it is possible that today Brazilians still have stashed outside Brazil more than US$ 300 billion dollars.

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Which is obviously illegal. One of the historic differences between the USA, and South American and other Latin countries and some Mideastern countries is that individual Americans would forego personal advantage for the good of the country. Whereas in other countries screwing the system is considered patriotic.

Used to be a business in San Francisco by the name of Gum Chew Lewie. I asked one of my profs at U of Toronto what that could mean. He said it was a horrible transliteration, probably of the guy´s name, in Mandarin.

I am impressed with your knowledge of Mandarin. Did your Thai Chinese business associates teach you to read,write and speak the language?

近义词= GTY?

what I would do for Brazil if I had the power -

1. tax the land owners
2. lower property tax
3. labor law reform, pro-labor is pro slavery-like salary.
4. get rid of the bank transaction fees, lower income tax as well
5. hire some Chinese military officers to deal with the favelas.
6. pro immigration, pro international investment

Good suggestions,except 5. Why bring in the Chinese officers, when our own army is ready to roll? All we need is an amendment in the constitution that permits our Armed Forces to be used in matters related to Intenal security.

Money is the blood of economy. When the government puts a 0.38% fee on all bank transactions, it slows down or diverts the flows. it doesn't matter what the fee is for, it is a bad bad bad idea.

I agree with you, but unfortunately, the senate is also going to approve the extension of this tax for another 4 years. Probably to divert the flow!

Public healthcare in Brazil

is pretty good! At least the doctors were trained in medical schools.

I am not talking about the competence of our doctors or for that matter that of professionals in other fields. We have very good ones.

I am questioning the competence of those who are managing our public health care system.Soon soon, the patients here also will turn to be ATMs. If you had been taken to an ER of a public hospital while you were visiting Brazil, you would perfectly understand what I am saying.5 years ago, the situation was much better and why let it deteriorate? Especially, when the 0.38% on the bank transactions is supposedly for implementing universal health care.

近义词： good day

I got it, I think.由于!

Your welcome.

you did not say any nthing about the 750.000 babies of illeagle alins born in the states this year .

and the billions that will have to be spent on illnesses like TB , POLIO,INFINTGO ,ASSORTED FORMS OF SMALPOX , CHICKEN POX ,HEAD LICE , AND OTHER LITTLE LIVE STOCK BROUGHT WITH THEM
then the bed bugs that are running rampet IN every hotel motel and rental house .

and still the goverment of the US treats its own citisens like seconds class citisens they are just going for the votes in the long run

and why the califorians are so happy the goverment will give them any thing they want as they are the swing vote in most races for president
as they are the last state to close voting booths

on wednesday the nationla insurance board ask the goverment to allowe them to raise rates across the country .
a sheet of 1/2 plywood went up 45 cents in less than a week along with all other building matrials

how luckey they are
let the tree huggers say something about fire breaks this year

let the tree huggers say something about fire breaks this year

But you always advised everyone to plant trees. Now u are calling them a tree huggers,Adml. You switched your allegiance? Please do explain.

learning Chinese

If I am learning English and Portuguese, what makes you think you shouldn't learn Chinese ... help starts from oneself.

Please do accept my apologies. I would rather attribute my earlier comment to my ignorance of your language and culture. When I made my earleir statement, I was merely complimenting you for your Mastery of English and Portuguese and the way you facilitated the communication between the Chinese and Brasilians. Please do bear it in mind that I have never been to your country.

One thing I would like to consult and clarify with you: As for as I know, there are several dialects in Chinese and since the land is so vast, it is impossible to state that there is just one language called "Chinese". I was told that there is Mandarin, Cantonese, etc; My question: Which dialect the vast majority of your people speaks?

Re the school in Juiz de Fora: Do they teach Mandarin or other dialects? As you may have already discovered, the "Mineiras" are lovely people and they can communicate in any language.

I don’t know how much money the Brazilians brought back to Brazil in the last few years – but the biggest reason all this money was sent to other countries it was to protect it from inflation and a weak Brazilian currency such as the Cruzado, the New Cruzado, the Cruzeiro, the New Cruzeiro, the Cruz Credo, and finally – the Real.

If you really want to know the stats about this, you better start paying a little more attention to Ch.C. I am afraid he knows more about the evolution of our economy during the past 4 decades than most people.

a fire break is a plowed row along the near top of the ridge of the hills

but they dont want that as it stops the brush from growing ,

a few plants or 2.5 billion bucks

They reapped the results of the science of their ecological perspectives. The shaparel caught fire and burned their houses down. They neglected to include their own needs into the equation ie. protecting their houses from the inevitable nature of shaparel to burn itself off every five years or so. A system out of equalibrium will fail. Everything in moderation, including the passion for shrubery. If your going to build a house in a tinderbox, dont.

Joao wrote: “If you really want to know the stats about this, you better start paying a little more attention to Ch.C. I am afraid he knows more about the evolution of our economy during the past 4 decades than most people.”

I also have been following the evolution of the Brazilian economy for a long time. I have been writing about Brazil’s foreign exchange problem for the last 9 years.

Before that I worked for a few years as controller of a few international trading companies that did a lot of business with Brazil, and I also knew a bunch of other people who also used to do international trade with Brazil.

I can speak from personal experience regarding the US decline in terms of Brazil. In 1988 when I was a controller for a major Brazilian international trading company in New Jersey, (our office was located right next to the George Washington Bridge that connects New Jersey with New York City) our outside auditors had twenty-two other Brazilian companies as their clients in the New York metropolitan area. By the year 2000 that same auditing firm had only one Brazilian client left in the New York City Metropolitan area – a small office of Petrobras.

The Petrobras Company (a major company in Brazil) was one of their major Brazilian clients at the time in New York City. In 1986 Petrobras had over 100 people working on its office in New York City. Today they have about three people working in that office. Most of the other twenty-two Brazilian company clients of our outside auditors closed their offices in New York City, and they no longer operate in the United States.

During the years 1986 and 2000 when I was working in companies doing international trade, I saw first hand a number of Brazilian companies one by one going out of business and closing its US operations – not only international trading companies but also Brazilian banks, shipping companies and so on….

There were other factors that merged during that time that also helped explain for this amazing exodus of Brazilian companies from the US market such as: economic turmoil in Brazil, merger and acquisitions among Brazilian companies, innovation and technological advances during that time made many of these companies obsolete, and since 1991 with the fall of the Soviet Union Americans lost its interest in Brazil and Latin America in general, and American attention shifted to other parts of the world.

Many of our friends who had been living here in the United States some for 20 years and longer have since returned to Brazil – and the exodus still going on today I know a number of Brazilians who returned on the last 12 months or are in the process of returning to Brazil.

I have been writing about that subject for a while and right now many Brazilians who used to live in the US are heading or considering to head home.

In the coming years many foreigners living today in the United States are going to move back to where they came from when they realize that the “American Dream” is history and belong to the past – and in the process the United States will lose a lot of hard working and talented people.

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Here is another actual example: I spent one year (2001-2002) trying to start a nonprofit organization called “The Brazilian Cultural Society.” - part of the project also included a center for Brazilian history and economic studies. I had a half dozen meeting with senior management of Fairleigh Dickinson University in New Jersey, and that university was very interested in helping me get the project off the ground.

The center was to be located at the university campus in Teaneck NJ. I had many meetings with senior management of FDU University in Teaneck, NJ, but even with the help of the university's vice president of fund-raising we were not able to find anyone willing to fund that project. We almost got the project off the ground, but then came the September 11 attack, and that created a major problem for us, since all sources of funding did dry up for a long time. (I also did send proposals to a large number of other potential funding sources in the United States.)

Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) was an ideal place for this Center of Brazilian History and Economic Studies, since I graduated with a B.A. in Economics and MBA in Finance from FDU, and I am an alumni of the University. There were other reasons also to locate the new center at the FDU campus. FDU's new president, J. Michael Adams, understands the importance of learning about other cultures, and he is a heavy supporter of FDU's strong international programs. He believes each student should have an international experience. There's been an acknowledgment at FDU that the University has a responsibility to prepare the students with a global outlook.

In the meantime, I was able to put together a powerful group of people who had accepted to be members of the board of trustees of the new organization, including:

1) Nélida Pinõn. She is a world-renowned Brazilian intellectual and one of Brazil's most important contemporary novelists. She also has been a former president of the Brazilian Academy of Letters.

2) Professor Gregory Rabassa. American translator who was largely responsible for bringing the fiction of contemporary Latin America to the English-speaking world. Of his more than 30 translations from Spanish and Portuguese, perhaps the best known is Gabriel Garcia Marquez's One Hundred Years of Solitude (1970).

3) Professor Carlos Guilherme Mota. One of the better known Brazilian historians today. He is a prolific writer and has published a long list of history books.

4) Former President of Brazil Senator José Sarney was the latest person to accept an invitation to become a member of the board of directors of the Brazilian Cultural Society. Today Senator Sarney is the president of the Senate, and the most influential senator in Brazil.

When I say that the United States is losing very fast its influence in Brazil, I am not saying that just as a possible theory. It is a fact, and I have been witnessing Brazil disconnect from the United States over a period of many years. I have first hand personal experiences and have witnessed this fast moving American influence decline.

What it is amazing to me is the American lack of foresight, since Brazil is one of the new rising economic powers of the 21st century – Brazil is part of this new exclusive group of countries that also include: Russia, India, and China - (BRIC’s).

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At that time Brazzil magazine published my article on that subject – that article it was also published by The Brasilians a Brazilian newspaper from New York with a large circulation, and the article generated no letters to the editor, or comments or a single email.

September 2001 – “The B-Files”

http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/6752/39/

Note: I was trying to take that project off the ground with Domicio Coutinho – I was going to be the Chairman of that organization and Domicio was going to be its president.

I finally gave up on that project after one year of working full time on it and not being able to find the funding necessary for that organization neither in the United States nor in Brazil – in Brazil I sent a copy of the proposal to all the people who could fund such a project, but it was a waste of time since nobody was willing to help fund an organization to promote a lot of things related to Brazil.

After I quit the project Domicio Coutinho continued with the project and finally he incorporated it as a non-profit organization, because it was a dream of his to establish a Brazilian library in New York City where Brazilianists could go and do research and find books about Brazil.

He finally opened the Brazilian Library and Brazilian Cultural Society in New York about a year ago. And the Brazilian Cultural Society has been a great success and they have been promoting various types of Brazilian arts – from shows to promote Brazilian painters, and arts plastics, to organizing theater events with Brazilian stories and Brazilian cast.

Twice a month it is movie night at the Brazilian Cultural Society and they show Brazilian movies, from historic movies, to just a regular movie, the Library also brings many people to give lecturers about various subjects related to Brazil – from the Brazilian great writers such as Machado de Assis to other themes.

In March of 2007 the Brazilian Cultural Society had an event to honor former Brazilian president Jose Sarney – and at that time he gave a great lecture about Brazil – and I was impressed with him since I had no idea President Sarney was such a great speaker and he had no notes to read from.

The Brazilian Library also is connected with UBENY (Uniao Brasileira de Escritores NY.) This is the only chapter they have outside Brazil. And we used to meet once a month at the Brazilian Consulate in New York. UBENY has many types of people who became member over the years including authors, magazine and newspaper writers, screenwriters and people involved with theater, and the movies.

Brazilians should be proud of the extraordinary job being done by Domicio Coutinho and his organization at the Brazilian Cultural Society in New York – they are doing a great job in promoting Brazil and its’ culture here in the New York Metropolitan area..

The prospects for further success is immense for the Brazilian Cultural Society as they become better known through the word of mouth and the mainstream media starts writing about that organization and its events.

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aes: i wasn't offended, just a comment on my observation. Most American born Chinese would be offended being called Chinaman or Oriental. This usually tells someone of Chinese heritage was from China or was born in American. Anyway, the possessive of Chinese is also Chinese, so it should be "How Long is a Chinese's name."

there won;t be an Asian currency, if you knew Asians, and Brazil will not use any other countries currency either. Regardless of whether your idea has merit or not, you are asking people with power (to make money) to give up such power, if that's going to happen, Brazil won't be like it is today.

Joao, if Brazilian officers knew how to deal with those Favelas, they would have done it long time ago. Obviously they have no clue. few months ago there were magazine articles about recent phenomenas of favela residents organizing armed patrol to fight keep drug dealers out. The police was trying to get rid of them. A Chinese officer is trained to turn that militia into a government branch in no time. see the difference.

Joao, the health insurance cost in Brazil is very low, and the dirt pool at least have a place to go. In China, it is expensive, and the poor has no place to go.
Quote: "If you had been taken to an ER of a public hospital while you were visiting Brazil, you would perfectly understand what I am saying." i visited one just two weeks ago.

Joao, there is only one Chinese language. Mandrian or Cantonese are just dialogs, like you have Yankee english, british english, Texas english, or English spoken in India. All sounded different with little local extras here and there.

People forget that ethanol it is just a commodity.


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“Poor ethanol margins delay Brazil mill projects”
By Inae Riveras
Reuters - Fri Oct 26, 2007 9:13pm BST

SAO PAULO, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Tight profit margins in Brazil's ethanol and sugar industry this year have led to delays in the projected startup of new plants that were scheduled to come on line in the next few years, specialists said.

The sector's largest groups say they are maintaining investment and construction plans despite low sugar and ethanol prices with long-term perspectives still promising. Equipment suppliers say that sales are still heated.

However, many industry newcomers or companies which depend on their own cash flow to build new mills are preferring to postpone or even abandon projects.

"Investments will slow down until a signal of market recovery appears," said Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, technical director from the Sugar Cane Industry Union (Unica).

In 2006, international interest to adopt ethanol as a fossil fuel substitute, strong sugar prices and growing demand for the biofuel in Brazil from a growing flex-fuel car fleet caused a flood of new plant projects.

But with ethanol and sugar prices below production costs in Brazil, the world's most competitive producer, investors' ambitions have cooled off.

"The future pace of investments will depend on domestic demand for ethanol, its price and on how logistics will improve to make biofuel exports viable, especially in Goias and Mato Grosso (states in Brazil center-west)," Padua said.

Around 138 projects were announced to come on stream in the coming years in the center-south, according to analyst Datagro. But about 30 of them are unlikely to materialize.

"In general terms, there was a one-to-two-year delay in the development of these projects due to lower prices," said Datagro's president, Plinio Nastari.

But most of the announced projects are expected to become reality, specialists said.

Datagro says 79 projects out of the 138 scheduled are "highly probable." They would represent an additional cane crushing capacity of 30.8 million tonnes in the center-south region by 2008. This would then rise to 162.5 million tonnes by 2018.

"Prices influence those companies that depend on their existing mills' cash flow to invest in new ones ... Large groups' projects, some of them financed by funds, are not set by current prices," Padua said.

Brazil's largest sugar and ethanol producer, Cosan is one of the companies which is maintaining its investment plans despite low margins.

Cosan raised about $1 billion through an initial public offering in New York and Sao Paulo in August to fund expansion, and intends to invest $1.7 billion in four years to build new mills and expand existing ones.

"Our investments will continue. We already have the money to do so, and market perspectives remain very positive," Cosan's President Rubens Ometto said.

Equipment sales to mills have been on a scale not seen since the launching of the government's Pro-ethanol Program in the 1970s, according to suppliers. But clients appear to be increasingly cautious.

"We haven't had any impact in terms of sales yet, (but) some clients did comment... If ethanol prices continue at these low levels, we believe new projects, newcomers will slam on the breaks," said Jose Francisco Davos, Dedini's business vice president.
Dedini supplies nearly all mills in Brazil with milling and cogeneration equipment as well as technical assistance.

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