Brazilian Market Jumps Close to 5% While Dollar Rises Over 3%

Brazil's Bolsa de Valores, Bovespa After another shaky day, the Bovespa, Brazil's stock exchange, going along with Wall Street, ended this Thursday, November 13, in a very positive note. There were frequent oscillations between black and red during the Friday trading session, with the market having a 2% decline, but at the final bell the Ibovespa index had climbed 4.71% to 35.993 points. 

3.9 billion reais (US$ 1.69 billion) changed hands.  As for the dollar, the American currency had a big jump rising 3.4% to 2.368 for a dollar.  Brazil's central bank intervened several times during the day trying to hold the greenback. The monetary authority held two direct sales of dollars, a traditional swap auction plus a dollar loan auction in the value of US$ 1,3 billion, but nothing helped.

On Wednesday, Latinamerica's main stock markets had ended sharply weaker following on Wall Street and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's announcement that it would re focus the US$ 700 billion bailout fund.

Brazil's Bovespa index closed at 34,373.99, down nearly 7.8% from Tuesday's close ending a three-session run of gains. Shares of major miner Vale closed nearly 6.7% off as prices of several minerals touched new lows on expectations of weaker demand for industrial metals.

The Brazilian currency real lost nearly 2.9% to 2.289 per dollar, battered by speculation that a global slowdown will cut investment flows to emerging markets. The real weakened even after the central bank offered dollars on the spot currency market, the first such sale in almost a week, and sold about US$ 495 million in currency swaps.

The other big market, Mexico, saw the benchmark IPC stock index plunge 5% on mounting worries that the deepening economic slowdown in the United States could drag the country into recession. Mexico sends around 80% of its exports to the US. The Mexican peso lost 0.75% and closed at 13.25 to the US dollar.

Argentine stocks also tumbled for a fourth straight session on Wednesday, sliding on investor concerns the global economy is heading into a recession, while the peso and bonds also fell.

The benchmark Merval index plunged 5.49% to 1,008.26 points. On the foreign exchange market, the Argentine peso closed lower, its slide partially offset by intervention by the central bank. The peso currency weakened 0.15% to 3.3025/3.305 per dollar in formal inter-bank trade but 1.5% to 3.37/3.40 in money exchange houses.

Chilean stock indexes also experienced a downfall on Wednesday, while the peso gained ground against the US dollar after the central bank auctioned US$ 332 million in loans to banks.

Chile's blue-chip IPSA index .IPSA slid 3.53% to close at 2,476.46 while the all-market IGPA index .IGPA fell 2.75% to 11,790.69, preliminary closing figures showed.

Furthermore prices for copper, Chile's leading export and a pillar of the local economy, eased to a three-year low on Wednesday as inventories rose and investors fretted about sluggish demand.

LatAm markets were impacted by US stock indexes which ended down 5% as major companies cut earnings outlooks and the US Treasury backed off plans to buy troubled mortgage assets.

The US top electronics retailer, Best Buy warned the business climate was the worst in 40 years. On Monday, Circuit City, the second-largest US consumer electronics retailer, filed for bankruptcy.

Analysts agreed that comments from US Treasury Secretary Paulson spurred investors to dump emerging market assets and flee to safer investments like US Treasury bills.

Mercopress

Comments   

0 #14 Thanks for the advice Ch.cAES 2008-11-15 07:16
Thanks for spending the time. I am at present building a spec house, I am out of the market.
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0 #13 ......ch.c. 2008-11-15 07:11
2) I did something similar in oil, but started well too early at around $ 90 ! But if you re-read my gold trading, there was always some corrections from tops, which allowed me to cover my entry...with a profit...and thus REDUCING my losses.
But then even when oil collapsed, I first started to cover my shorts too early, because of course I had not a clue and even not the opinion of the the collapse we have had so far, but when I was approxiametely break even, i kept some of my shorts and the trading was then very similar to my gold trading ! Conclusion I was not short and just added all the way up and I was not short large positions during the collapse !

In trading or investing, there is PERMANENTLY the words......SH.T why I did not do this or that, it was obvious. Or why do I have such a small position when your views become reality....and about what you missed !!!! Trading or investing is what it is !
You have no idea how many times...PER DAY.....I CALL MYSELF.....AN IDIOT !
Looking at a chart will only provide you what yesterday was. Some of the supports/resistances will hold, some wont ! Simple as that. I do look at charts but it has a VERY LOW weighting in my final decisions. I dont trust chartists predicting tomorrow prices !
They are always right on paper...very rarely with real money ! That is why just try to offer to an apparent good chartist let say an account of $ 50 millions...and most of them will refuse...and THEY KNOW WHY ! SMILES
AND OF THOSE ACCEPTING THE OFFER, WILL NOT PERFORM.... OVER TIME !!!! PROVEN A MILLION TIMES !
Talking is easier than acting !
The same is true for SIGNALS VENDORS ! YOU HAVE THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF THEM !!!!!!
They appear under one name.....disappear.....and re-appear under another name !
They all cheat, lie, hide and manipulate their "apparent performance"
The only one I have a lot of respect for is Robert Prechter as I said to Vinnycarioca.
And trust me it has nothing to do because I met him ONCE.... 21 years ago.
I am not even one of his subscriber simply because I dont want to much "outside" vibrations from my own analysis.
But if there is one that deserve to be read and listened to some extend....HE IS ONE VERY GOOD SOURCE...WORTH FAR MORE THAN HIS FEES !!!!!
Just ask to Vinnycarioca ! He is more than happy to not be in that metldown...mostly due (from what I understood) to Prechter !
You may say that why is Vinnycarioca not making a ton of money by being short !
Wellll....I can only suppose that He is not a shorter !
But ask him more precisely if you wish !
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0 #12 Furthermore.....ch.c. 2008-11-15 07:10
Dear idiot AES on your "Nobody is arguing with what you know"

Sorry but YOU ARE CONTINUOUSLY ARGUING WITH MY COMMENTS, SO MUCH AS I AM ARGUING WITH YOUR COMMENTS...WHICH ARE FULL OF LIES, ERRORS FOR WHAT IS KNOWN AND IGNORANCE THAT YOU WANT TO APPEAR AS KNOWLEDGE !

And if as you said "I am interested in information I already know my opinion." then you got it all...by definition !!!!!
Informations/opinions are free the world over.
This is what creates the markets and provide liquidity, create the bulls and the bears and we meet at the exchanges.
The problem with information is that some are bullish when at the same time some are bearish !
Then everyone has to be either bullish or bearish to invest, not invest, go long, go short, stand aside and even more importantly how should someone WEIGHT his trading or investments decisions...in his own portfolio !
Let me give you 2 clear examples :
1) I reduced my gold positions further and further above 800.- and had no position at 850.- ! Too early...sure ! then I said if and only if the market stretches further will I start going short.....on a scale up ! At 1000.- I took a very small short position. I wanted to add at 1050.-/1100.-/1150.-/1200.- all the way up to 1500.- !
Welll....I could not.
therefore by LUCK I was short very close of the top ! Great ? Yesss in on side only. Because my "extraordinary" signal was for a VERY SMALL POSITION ! smiles
I would have preferred to see 1200.-/ 1400.- curiously
Now even if gold would have gone up to these levels it would not have gone straight ! Right ?
Meaning that assuming it would have gone first to 1050 then to 1100 without a meaningful correction (let say 50), but then assuming it would have gone to 1050 I would have covered by short from 1100....reducing my average price...and eventually add to my short at 1150 (never at the 1100 again).
Even on my "near perfect short" at 1000.- I also traded by covering some of short positions on deep weakness and reshorting on rallies. At times I had some regrets of my purchases (cover short) because we went right much lower. But that is life in trading !
It remains that there were rallies...good enough...later ! And good rallies we will have.
When there is a meltdown in housing prices, there CANNOT BE INFLATION....even if commodities (oil-grains) go higher !

Housing prices and wages pressures are far more important in the inflation than commodities prices !
Wellll....nowhere have you read this ! Experience counts....not what junkies publish in the medias or in Wall Street ! smiles
All bubbles have been created by the medias and the financial industry ! Being that the medias "steal" the ideas from the financial industry ! The medias are paid to write something "of interest"...to sell their products !
So does the financial industry !

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0 #11 continuedch.c. 2008-11-15 05:52
FACT 6 : This advice come from an old timer "expert" with nearly 4 DECADES...in the investments industry !
I wont try to make a surgery....because I am not a surgeon !!!!! Apply the same principles in your investments !
If you need names of some TOP quality portfolio managers managing transparent and relatively large size NON LEVERAGED MUTUAL FUNDS, here is a few names, and create your own portfolio as you see fit for your risk :

Symbols of mutual funds :
CGMFX
CGMRX (same manager as CGMFX)
FAIRX
AMANX
AMAGX (same manager as AMANX)

For investments in emerging nations :
TWMIX
LMEMX
MCHFX

All these funds are down sharply this year, of course some more than others, because they dont have the trading flexibilty.
All these funds have different investment style.
All these funds are worth investing in for the long term, in my view for long term investors. But investors should still REDUCE when MARKETS ARE STRETCHED ON THE HIGH SIDE.... and add when STRETCHED ON THE LOW SIDE. You/I or whoever dont need AND NEVER will SELL AT...THE HIGH...AND BUY AT... THE LOW !
The few times someone picks THE LOW OR THE HIGH is usually PURE LUCK !!!!!!
But in my view, even an idiot should realize when things are too high or too low !!!!
What is always guaranteed is after a BUBBLE a BURST WILL FOLLOW !!!!!
From TOO HIGH....WE ALWAYS END UP AS...TOO LOW....WHEN LOOKING FROM A TOP !
iT IS THEN TIME TO LOOK AT MUCH LONGER CHARTS, and one will see that afterall the APPARENT TOO LOW is not as low as it may seem !
Even oil at US$ 60.- IS NOT LOW..and even less TOO LOW on a long term chart !
YOU AS A CONSUMER, do you prefer to fill your car tank and pay US$ 20.- OR 100 ?????
Same for mortgages when taken in context to the housing prices & the mortgages rates....and not only the mortgages rates !

Conclusion :
1) COMMON SENSE WILL ALWAYS PREVAIL....ULTIMATELY !
2) DONT FOLLOW THE CROWD OR THE MEDIAS FOR TOO LONG. THE CROWD WILL END UP WRONG SOONER OR LATER !
3) NO ONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR LOSSES BUT...YOURSELF ! SAME IS TRUE FOR YOUR PROFITS !
4) DO YOUR HOME WORK, AND READ...READ...READ....READ...READ...READ ! When things become OBVIOUS.....REDUCE IF HIGH AND ADD WHEN LOW.
5) DONT CHOSE A STOCK BY YOURSELF. SPREAD YOUR RISK BY INVESTING IN DIFFERENT MUTUAL FUNDS WITH DIFFERENT STRATEGIES. You will end up as more diversified with 3-5 mutual funds, than whatever your portfolio will be made of different individual stocks !
6) the beauty in commodities is that a commodity will never ever go to ZERO ! Companies stock prices CAN GO TO ZERO !!!!
But over time, stocks always produce superior results than commodities by a very large margin ! You can even compare Exxon to oil prices. Exxon not only outperformed on charts, but Exxon provided a quaterly dividend, while rolling over the oil futures ends up as a CHARGE...due to the carrying charges from one maturity to the next !!!!! Add this dividends to Exxon and the charges to a commodity and the difference is even much bigger over the long term....but but it is not shown on a chart !!!!!!

In the meantime....ENJOY YOUR HUGE HUGE HUGE LOSSES !!!!! Because telling me that not only you were NOT BULLISH at the top, but that you did not ALREADY AVERAGED DOWN FROM A MUCH HIGHER PRICE THAN TODAY PRICES....AND YOU WILL JUST LIE....ONCE MORE AND AS USUAL !!!!! UNLESS AS I SAID YOURE INVESTMENTS WERE VIRTUAL THE SAME WAY OF YOUR ENCOUNTERS WITH PAMELA ANDERSON.......IN YOUR MINDS ONLY !
iN MY VIEW...YOUR SLEEPS SHOULD BE QUITE STRESSED AND YOU HAVE PROBABLY LOST NEARLY 100 % OF YOUR INVESTMENTS !
MAY BE MORE....BECAUSE YOU ALSO LOST SOME OF YOUR ADDITGIONAL SAVINGS THAT WERE RE-INVESTED.

LAUGH....LAUGH....LAUGH....LAUGH !!!!
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0 #10 Dear Idiot AESch.c. 2008-11-15 05:52
Let me state that
- even steel has a shelf life...if you did not know. Would you put steel in perishables ? It remains that coffee is not as perishable as you stated originally ! It can be warehoused for well over a year. Sharon Stone and Pamela Anderson are certainly in your mental orgy, not real life, the same as your "apparent" gold sale at $ 820.- which did NOT exist. Your statements are full of lies and ignorance.
- Suddenly you are more interested in trading, but you never ever said so, in your statement. Was it trading when you "apparently" bought gold at $ 300.- or so and sold it "apparently" at $ 820.- ?????? Come on idiot, come on liar !
- If you are more interested in trading, then please tell us WHEN YOU TURNED BEARISH on the Brl, on the Bovespa, on the Brazilian real estate companies (short memory...idiot ?), on Petrobras, Cia Vale, ethanol, oil, gold, grains etc etc !!!!!!
For sure you never ever turned bearish....even for trading....reading your many many comments ALWAYS BULLISH FOR BRAZIL.

FACT ONE : YOU GOT IT ALLLLLLLLLL WRONG THUS FAR....! Even on your last signal, when YOU referred to Buffett not so long ago, and was BULLISH on gold at $ 900.- ! And was also bullish on just about everything that is Brazilian one way or the other !

Come on loser, dont tell us that you were right. Just re-read by yourself...YOUR OWN COMMENTS !

FACT 2 : you never know what you are talking about. Simple and most recent example was when you wrote .....Brazil defaulted in the early 1980s !!!!!! Please elaborate more on that apparent default...which is only CERTAIN IN YOUR MIND !!!!!!

FACT 3 : if you are more interested in trading, welllllll you should have followed what I said all along. Even when I was too early, doesnt mean I went short AGRESSIVELY ! jUST FOR YOUR INFO.....OVERALL I AM NOT A SHORTER. But I can easily AVOID a stock, a currency, or a commodity that I find is too expensive....! BUT A BUBBLE BEING A BUBBLE....NEVER EVER BE AGRESSIVELY SHORT AS NO ONE CAN PREDICT ....THE TOP WITH ACCURACY ! THE SAME IS JUST AS TRUE FOR A BOTTOM DURING.....A BURST !
FACT 4 : About Trading : What is trading in YOUR view ? Everyone has a different interpretation. Some say trading is DAY TRADE, others say 1-3 days, others say 1-4 weeks, others say 1 to 3 months !!!!!!
Just for your information, I am a multi faceted hedge fund manager. Meaning some of my trades are DAY TRADES, SOME ARE P'ARTIAL HEDGING, SOME ARE 1-3 days, some are 1-4 weeks, some are 1-3 months, some are 3-12 months and some are for over a year.
I am very flexible, because I control my account value, rebalance it, redistribute it and spread my shots to be diversified, in different countries, different currencies, different stocks, different commodities....but but but...I have a clear objective with my atypical style : DONT LOSE TOO MUCH in the value of the account when times are rainy, but be prepared and position myself for the next bull market...WHENEVER it will come !!!!!

FACT 5 : iF YOUR ACCOUNT can only shoot 3 or 5 times, with one shoot per currency, stock or commodity, STOP YOUR TRADING !
YOU WILL END UP LOSING ALL YOUR MONEY...SOONER OR LATER....WHATEVER WAY YOU DO !!!!! VERY SIMPLE !

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0 #9 AES 2008-11-14 16:52
Everything organic is perishable Ch.c. by definition. You may dry your product but there is definitely an optimum shelf life, even great wine will morph to vinegar in an infinite abount of years. How many tons of coffee are you shipping, at $56 oil the cost of shipping and production are greatly reduced and your profit margins increased, good for you, spot on. Gold has no shelf life. You can store kilos of it in your own safe, you do have your own safe dont you? No probably not. Your money is in paper, in receipts, in beans on the vine. in land, well the land is real. That is why they call it real estate.
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0 #8 Ch.c in a contest of wit you would not do half bad.AES 2008-11-14 16:21
One must profer an opinion inorder to see the response. I am interested in information I already know my opinion. Strangely I have found your market analysis and global economic perspective spot on. As you say there is a difference between trading and investing. My interest is in trading. As to gourmet coffee. There is always a market for quality and those that buy quality are not concerned with price. There are those "that know the price of everything and the value of nothing". Your sexual language however Ch.c is curious, it is suprisingly adolescent. Pamela Anderson? Sharon Stone is infinitely more interesting as a woman. And knowledge of markets does not equate with your worth as a mench. In your failure to be perceived as intelligent as you are you become the ubber mench, verbally strutting and mocking. Nobody is arguing with what you know. It is what you dont know and your failure to recognize what you dont know that is problematic to your balance. Somebody elses ignorance has nothing to do with your intelligence.
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0 #7 When you buy coffee beans you have a perishible commodity.ch.c. 2008-11-14 15:00
Only an idiot says so !
I repeat that you dont know at all what you are talking about....but continue to pretend that you are right !!!!!
Coffee can be warehoused for well over a year, in fact for several years...if you did not know.

This said ALL our coffee was sold at a MUCH MUCH higher price than the price at the EXCHANGE !
Our coffee is specialty coffee.
Having a lot of imaginations for our sales, we basically favor our sales....for CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR TIME FRAME !!!!
That is when profits margin are at the highest, and when people buy more expensive foie gras, champaign, wines, truffles !

To have an idea of OUR SPECIALTY COFFEE PRICES, just enjoy the viewing
http://globoruraltv.globo.com/GRural/0,27062,4370-p-20081107,00.html

Let me repeat and underline : ONLY AN IDIOT LIKE YOU IS 100 % CERTAIN THAT DRIED COFFEE, ROASTED OR NOT, IS A PERISHABLE COMMODITY !!!!
Every time, you write your filthy analysis and comments...YOU ARE.....DEAD WRONG ! Proven time and again !
But coming from an idiot....it is QUITE NORMAL ! What else could be expected ?????

And dear DUMBASS AES......why dont you come back and tell us more about the Brazil's default in the early 1980s....THAT YOU WROTE ABOUT ???????

To make sure you are 100 % idiot...MINIMUM....let me come back of your coffee price analysis stating coffee should be bullish since the front month is trading at cents 111.- and at cents 145.- for 2011 :
- the forward months INCLUDE BOTH THE INTERESTS AND WAREHOUSING COSTS...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL DELIVERY !!!!!!!!

Toc...proven once more how idiot and ignorant you are on whatever you insist is correct !

Enjoy your huge losses...as usual with your permanent ignorance and analysis !!!!!!
Unless this is like your virtual mental handjob Sexual orgy...that you had with Pamela Anderson !

but...but....please keep entertaining us !

LAUGH....LAUGH....LAUGH...LAUGH...LAUGH !
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0 #6 Furthermore.....ch.c. 2008-11-14 09:40
dont quote me badly either. I am not saying I dont/wont invest in emerging nations. On average, It will simply be a lot less than the previous 5 years.
Every sell off is a TRADING OPPORTUNITY, but Not an investment opportunity due to what I think about the NON US$ currencies as stated above.

Even commodites are TRADING OPPORTUNIES, BUT ALSO NOT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES ! Especially the various metals and energy.
I am slightly more bullish on grains...but not really bullish either. For the time being they should swing less than the metals amd energy !
the least risk is in sugar, coffee, Orange juice and cotton ! Simply because they HAD NOT A BUBBLE IN 2008 !
And sorry but I dont really follow or trade the meats ! I will take very small positions if they go to MUCH MUCH MUCH LOWER !!!!

And nack to Falupa statements : "They (USA) don't have enough cash on hand right now to deal with this."
Sorry Falupa, but then why is the US$ going up ? öet me tell you one thing : it was the U.S. who lent US$ 30 billion recently to Brazil, and not the other way around....to my knowledge.
You also look at the wrong window because the Brazilian Government has Us$ 200 billion.
You forget to take in account :
- the Brazilian Government also has Us$ 200 billion STILL in foreign debts ! What is then your NET ? Not much...at best ! oN TOP OF THAT.....Brazil is actually running with a HISTORICAL CURRENT ACCOUNT..... DEFICIT ! AND ...... GROWING !
- You dont take in account the HUGE FOREIGN DEBTS...OF YOUR COMPANIES !!!!! Borrowing in foreign curencies was so much cheaper than borrowing in Brl ! The more your currency goes down, the more your comoanies would need Brl to pay both the interests and more importantly repay the capital ! Just think about it !!!!
- On top of that many of your companies have SPECULATED THE WRONG WAY ! More is to come on the fourth quarter results...if your currency doesnt appreciate against the US$...by year end !!!! At the end of September (usually an end of quarter for most companies) the US$-BRL was .......close to 2.- !!!!

:D ;-) :D ;-) :D ;-) :D ;-)
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