Brazzil

It has been over ten years now, since December of 1998, that I have been advocating and writing many articles saying that Brazil should adopt a new mega currency. First, I suggested in my articles the euro as Brazil's new currency. But about four years ago I changed my mind regarding Brazil adopting the euro as its new currency, because the entire ball game has changed from the Brazilian perspective in the last few years.

ASAP, Brazil should adopt instead the "New Asian Currency"; a new currency similar to the euro in a major effort to adapt to the new global economic realities of today and the coming decades.

In March 2007 "Brazzil" magazine published my article: "Here Is Why Brazil Should Adopt the New Asian Currency." Quoting from that article: "Here we are at a very exciting time - a turning point in world history - and the global economy is changing as never seen before, at the speed of light; and innovation and major advances in technology are helping in rearranging the entire global economy.

...The global economy is slowly splitting the countries around the world into four major powerful blocks of countries - Europe, United States, Middle East, and Asia - and each country around the world will have to evaluate its economic self-interests regarding its economic future and will have to decide in the near future which group is the best for your particular country to establish very close economic ties with.

This article shows why, when we take into consideration the direction that the Brazilian economy should take today in relation to its economic prospects for the future, it becomes crystal clear that the best group for Brazil to integrate its economy with is the Asian group under the leadership of China.

...The global economy is in the process of being rearranged, and these changes are the result of globalization combined with the development of state-of-the-art new technologies such as a world that is connected by fiber optics, the constant increases in computer power, a growing global Internet system that is connecting everybody, and the astronomical developments in global communications that has been making it easier to communicate and send information via satellites, Internet, email or telephony."

In that article I described in detail the reasons why Brazil should adopt the new Asian currency and in 2009, based on the comments of many Chinese officials, China is finally realizing that it is time to reorganize the international monetary system and create a new system that is in sync with the new international monetary order for the new Millennium.

Common sense tells me that by 2010 the world is finally ready to move forward and the timing is right to finally adopt a new international monetary system designed to meet the needs of the 21st Century when we take into consideration all the major international financial events that transpired in 2008. What the world has witnessed in 2008 was not only the demise of the free market capitalist system in the United States, but for all practical purposes we also have witnessed the end of the line for an international monetary system based on the US dollar.

There are many reasons for the decline of the value of the US dollar

First, we have reached the end of the line for the US dollar currency supremacy, and that has to do among other things with the economic and geopolitical changes that we have had in the world since 1945.

The US dollar served its purpose since the end of WW II and became the major foreign exchange reserve currency for the system that emerged after the war. The days of the US dollar playing that special role that created an international monetary system that revolved around the US dollar as its main currency has reached the end of the line, since today that system is very sick and it is dying a slow death.

Very soon the world will need to put that patient out of its misery, and after we go through the major collapse of the US dollar creating the biggest international monetary crisis the world have ever seen - a massive US dollar global meltdown - from the ashes of the old system will emerge the new international monetary system that will be more useful for the first century of the new millennium. 

The US government and Americans in general lost sight of the role that the US dollar has been playing in the world international monetary system since 1945 when the US dollar started becoming an important part of the foreign exchange reserves of many countries.

When a currency achieves that status of a major reserve currency the world expects at a minimum that the currency would be managed in a way to protect its intrinsic value over time. That is not what has been happening to the US dollar for a long time.

The value of the 1947 US$ 1.00 has declined consistently since the US dollar became the major foreign exchange reserve currency, and in April 2009 that same US$ 1.00 dollar is worth only $ .08 cents; that is how much of the value of the US dollar has evaporated because of inflation.

During the Reagan and Clinton administrations, the method of calculating rising prices was altered in ways that lowered the official US inflation rate, and if we adjust the current value of the 1947 US$ 1.00 to be consistent with the pre-1983 method of calculating inflation, then the current value of that same US$ 1.00 dollar would be worth about $ .01 cent.

Since the US dollar became the center of the international monetary system starting with the Marshall Plan in 1947 - an unusual place for the currency of any one country to stay for a long period of time - the world has changed in drastic ways during all these decades resulting in a system that is completely broken today and ready to be replaced by a new system that represents the new global circumstances that have evolved since that time.

Today we have too many US dollars flying around the world; an over supply of US dollars that can be considered more as a massive bubble than a currency that can be justified by the prospects of the economic performance of the United States in the coming years. (Today over 70 percent of the US dollar currency ever created is flying around the world outside the circle of influence of the US Federal Reserve and the US government.)

Today, the United States is no longer master even of its own currency, since the accumulation of US dollars as foreign currency reserves by other countries around the world has placed the future economic and financial policy options of the United States in real jeopardy.

Global currency reserves
Currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves

Currency             1999     2008

US dollar             71 %     64 %      

Euro                  18 %     27 %

Pound Sterling         3 %      4 %

Japanese Yen           6 %      3 %

Other                  2 %      2 %                

Source: IMF

In July 1999 "The Brasilians" published an article by Ricardo C. Amaral - How can currency stability be achieved for the Brazilian economy?
Quoting from that article: "...Most people should not be surprised if in ten years the breakdown of official reserves of the countries around the world will be as follows:
U.S. Dollar = 35 percent of market

Euro Group = 35 percent of market

New Asian Group = 25 percent of market

Other = 5 percent of market"

Regarding my prediction of 10 years ago, I am surprised that England and some Scandinavian countries still have not adopted the euro as its currency as of 2009.

I am also surprised that in 2009 China has not created a major Asian currency as yet; and made a reality a new Asian currency similar to the euro.

If you have been reading many of my articles since 1999 regarding the subject of currency, then you know that I have been saying that the world in a few years would have 4 or 5 major global currencies such as the US dollar, the euro, the new Asian currency (equivalent to the euro), a Middle East currency (Gulf currency), and even some other currency that has not shown on the radar as yet.

Americans still think in terms of old economic structures of last century, and they are having a hard time accepting the new world order of the first century of the new millennium.

We are moving from a system dominated by one world superpower and its dominant currency, the US dollar, to a world of 4 or 5 major block of countries and its currencies - these are the members of the new world economic order - the United States Union, the European Union, the Asian Union, the Arab Middle East Union (Gulf currency), maybe the new Russian Union block, or it is possible that eventually we have even some other economic Union block that we can't see at this time.

Here are my recommendations for a new international monetary system

1) Regarding China

It is time for China to create immediately and implement a plan for the creation of a new Asian currency similar to the euro.

In my opinion, it would be a mistake for China to try to establish the yuan as the new Asian currency to compete with the US dollar and the euro as one of the main global reserve currencies.

A new Asian currency would be a better choice in the long run not only for China, but also for the other countries that decide to adopt the new Asian currency including Japan and Brazil.

The US dollar has had a unique run as a global foreign reserve currency in the last 60 years, because of geopolitical developments such as WW II, a communist world that was isolated from global financial markets and so on.

An international monetary system based on the US dollar has had its advantages over the years for the US, but eventually it has placed the United States in a situation that the US government is no longer a master of its own destiny, since a few select countries are holding a massive amount of US government debt. A system like that is unsustainable in the long run and eventually becomes a major liability, as is the case today of the United States and its creditors.

I suggest that Brazil adopt the new Asian currency right from its inception since that strategy would help integrate the Brazilian and the Chinese economies in the years to come.

Here is why a new Asian currency similar to the euro is a better choice than the yuan for the new international monetary system.

"The Brasilians," published in November 1999 my article "How can currency stability be achieved for the Brazilian economy?" Quoting from that article I said:

"Why the euro will provide macroeconomic stability for its members?

The members of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) are not there to represent their countries of origin. They are there to provide stability to the euro and they look at Euroland as a whole when making their policy. The euro is a monetary arrangement, and its monetary policy will be adopted independent from political control from its members.

This way of operating keeps the politicians out of the decision process and reduces the risk of them playing their political games with the country's monetary and currency systems. I am a firm believer that if the economic policies adopted by the (ECB) are good enough for such a diversified group of countries as France, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, and Italy, then such policies also will be good for Brazil. The Brazilian economy will be better off under the euro system than under the fragile and weak Brazilian currency."

That same type of logic also applies today regarding China. It will be better for China and the other countries that decide to adopt this new Asian currency; to create this new Asian currency and have a similar arrangement as the euro in Euroland. I am sure that this type of monetary arrangement will be beneficial in the long run even to the economies of countries such as Japan when Japan decides to adopt this new Asian currency. 

I don't understand why China is giving any consideration regarding the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Right (SDR) and even suggesting that the IMF turn the SDR's into a widely traded new reserve currency. That does not make sense to me, since for all practical purposes that system is still just a basket of few currencies representing the world of yesterday, and the US dollar is still at the center of that arrangement.

2) Regarding Russia

A few years ago I thought Russia might create the new Russian Union block based on the countries that comprised the old Soviet Union.

Today I believe that there is a better economic solution for Russia regarding the future of its economy, I came to that conclusion based on the actual economic realities of the last few years. Instead of keeping the Russian Ruble or trying to create a new currency for a new Russian Union block, the best option for Russia today is to adopt immediately the euro as its new currency.

By adopting the euro as it's new currency that would give long-term currency stability for Russia, and at the same time it would open the door to new German foreign investments in Russia, and in the process it would speed up Russia's industrial development with German outstanding technological know-how.
 
Russia is already a very important customer for German goods and services, and when Russia adopts the euro then a major obstacle, the currency risk, is removed providing a new fertile ground where investment and trading can flourish between the European Union and Russia. That would also help to bring more financial stability to the Russian stock and financial market.

It is a mistake to base the future of the Russian economy on the production of oil and gas and other commodities; by adopting the euro ASAP that would eliminate the currency risk and would open the door to European long-term investments in Russia and that process would be mutually beneficial for both parties. 

As I mentioned above, each country around the world will have to evaluate its economic self-interests regarding its economic future, and they will have to decide in the near future which mega currency to adopt - in my opinion, in the case of Russia the immediate adoption of the euro make sense to me.
                                     
The Russian government also needs to disconnect itself from any ties that they have today with the Russian mafia, and honor private property rights and the rule of law; otherwise, foreigners will not make new investments in that country.

3) Regarding the Gulf Currency

The new currency will initially be limited to members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes some of the wealthiest nations on earth. The GCC Gulf comprises Saudi Arabia - the world's most important source of oil, as well as Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates.

The process of creating the new Gulf single currency is moving along, and in May 2009 one more step was taken when the members of this new currency group decided to locate the new regional central bank in Saudi Arabia.

4) Regarding the United States

The decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar over the years reminds me of similar situations in Brazil; I remember the Brazilian currency being changed many times over the years from "Cruzeiro", to "New Cruzeiro", then from "Cruzado", to "New Cruzado", and finally the "Real'.

Today there are so many US dollars flying around the world that it might be a good idea for the United States government to replace its current completely devalued US dollar with the "New US Dollar" - and the conversion rate to be used to convert the old US dollar to the new currency the "New US dollar" should be for each old $ 100 US dollar would be converted into $ 1 New US dollar. - Just like they usually do in many countries when their currency starts becoming worthless when it loses most of its original value.
 
Here is a simple example to show the declining value of the US dollar: A house that was bought in a good area such as in Ridgewood, New Jersey in 1947 for about US$ 4,000 dollars, by 1972 that same house was in the market for $ 42,000 - and that same old house is worth today in the range of US$ 400,000 to US$ 500,000. When we take other economic information regarding the United States economy we come to a similar conclusion - The exchange rate of $100 "Old US dollars" to $1 "New US Dollar" would be just about right.

The adoption of a "New US Dollar" as I mentioned above would give, at least for a while, the illusion that something is being done about the value of the US dollar.

5) Regarding Brazil

Brazil has never been in such great financial shape as in 2009 - not only most of Brazil's foreign debt has been paid, but Brazil has about $ 200 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves on hand, and for the first time in its history, in 2008 Brazil has become a credit nation - Brazil has gone from a borrowing country to a lending and investing country.

In that article published in July 1999 on "The Brasilians" - How can currency stability be achieved for the Brazilian economy? - I also said:

"Today the amount of hot money which the international speculators have under their management is becoming mind boggling. The amount of daily currency transactions in the global markets is over $ 1.5 trillion dollars.

Countries are losing their capability of defending their weak currencies from the foreign attack of these international money speculators.

It is getting easier and easier for these international speculators to destroy the entire economy of countries such as Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, and Brazil, all they have to do is destroy their currency and these economies have a complete collapse. It is a form of modern economic warfare. These countries don't have the economic reserves necessary to defend their currencies from foreign speculative attacks."

Since July 1999 when I wrote about the hot money of international speculators that is always flying around the world looking for a short-term opportunities to make a quick buck, many countries such as Brazil adopted very conservative economic policies to build a sound economy; they got their government finances under control and they paid most of their foreign debt, and were able to save a lot of money in foreign currency reserves to be able to protect the value of its currency in time of international financial crisis.

Even though the Brazilian government had been managing the Brazilian economy in a conservative and sound way and the Brazilian economy was in very good shape, in May 18, 2008 the Bovespa stock market index in Brazil closed at 73,439.00 level, and only five months later in October 27, 2008 Bovespa closed at 29,435.00; a decline in that index of 60 percent. A similar situation happened in stock markets from China to Russia and so on...these stock markets lost a massive amount of value almost overnight mostly because of the panic in the US financial markets, and that is another solid example of how the "hot money" flowing around the world can devastate the stock market, the financial system, and the economy of these countries in a very short period of time.

To reduce the risk of this kind of devastating event to repeating in the future in Brazil, the Brazilian government should adopt a new set of rules with heavy penalties to keep the global hot money away from the Brazilian economy. The tax on these foreign investments should be designed in such way as to discourage short-term gains with the heavy exit tax of around 80 percent for moneys leaving the country up to one year from date of investment; after two years the exit tax should be around 50 percent, after three years 25 percent, and so on...and the system should be designed to encourage mostly long-term foreign investment of at least 5 years.   

The Brazilian government should find a way and develop a system to penalize with very heavy taxes the foreign "hot money." They should build a system to discourage the international "hot money" from investing in Brazil.

Brazil has to build a system to avoid in the future the "hot money" that rushed in and out of emerging markets during 2008 and caused a market crash in these countries - hot money that came from irresponsible banks, hedge funds, insurance companies and many other types of speculative capital that flows regularly between financial markets in search of the highest short-term interest rates possible, and other short-term investment opportunities.

Finance dictionary gives the definition of the kind of money that I want the Brazilian government to keep away from Brazil with this proposal as follows:

In international finance "hot money" is extremely volatile short-term capital that moves on a short notice to any country providing better returns. Powerful speculators can quickly pump massive sums into a high-yield economy, giving it an artificial aura of success and propriety. But, on a mere suspicion of a downturn or other negative factor, they can (and do) withdraw it almost overnight causing a near collapse of the country's financial structure.

If you read the articles that I wrote about Brazil and China, and about Brazil adopting the new Asian currency, then you will understand why the future of the Brazilian economy in this new international monetary order is more in tune with the new Asian currency than to any other economic block as discussed in this article.

Conclusion

In this article I made suggestions regarding a new monetary arrangement that will serve as the basis for the new international monetary system; it will be useful at least for the next 50 years - I have no idea what the world is going to look like in 50 years, maybe there are things that we can't see right now that would rearrange the entire system at one point during the next 50 years.
   
It is hard to predict the future since there are so many things that could go wrong along the way in the next 50 years that can change our entire future such as major epidemics, major natural catastrophes, major technological breakthroughs, WW III with countries dropping nuclear bombs on each other, and so on...

But, one thing I know for sure is the idea of one or two major superpowers ruling the world is an idea that is dying very fast as we watch the United States economic and political power declining at the speed of light, and in turn a new world economic order is getting ready to replace it.

In the near future we will have for the first time a new world economic order comprised of major blocks of countries sharing the global economic and financial power. For all practical purposes, the United States is no longer that sole surviving economic superpower, since superpowers don't depend on other countries to keep the superpower financially afloat.

Basically, the International Monetary System that we have had for a few decades that revolves around the US dollar has finally reached the end of the line, and the current international monetary crisis was the last straw necessary for the world to realize that they need a new redesigned international monetary system that would be compatible with the new realities of the 21st Century.

An international monetary system based on the "US dollar" was a solution for the world of yesterday, a world long gone, a world that represents the past, the world of the 20th Century. 

The new world order of the 21st Century needs urgently a new international monetary system designed to support the international monetary and economic needs of the 21st Century.

If you want to have a better understanding of the logic behind my proposal about Brazil adopting the new Asian currency, and want to grasp the essence of what I am trying to say then I suggest that you read also the following articles:

1) Brazzil Magazine - March 02, 2007
"Here Is Why Brazil Should Adopt the New Asian Currency."
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/177-march-2007/9821.html

2) Brazzil Magazine - October 2007
"The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil" Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
...The final conclusion is: It's imperative that China move forward in an aggressive fashion and implement with Brazil the plan described in this four-part series of articles. And China should look at it as a matter of national security and future survival.
Monday, 01 October 2007 - Part 1 of 4
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/184-october-2007/9977.html
Friday, 05 October 2007 - Part 2 of 4
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/184-october-2007/9979.html
Thursday, 11 October 2007 - Part 3 of 4
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/184-october-2007/9983.html
Tuesday, 16 October 2007 - Part 4 of 4
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/184-october-2007/9985.html

3) Brazzil Magazine - September 06, 2006
"While the American Dream Is Outsourced Brazil Drives the World into the Future" Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/171-september-2006/9684.html

4) Brazzil Magazine - June 02, 2005
"While China Rises the US Falls in Brazil and Latin America" 
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/2005-mainmenu-79/152-june-2005/9296.html

5) Brazzil Magazine - June 2003
Originally published on The Brasilians - from July 1999 to October 2001 - a four part series of articles. (Reprinted on Brazzil Magazine in June 2003)
Should Brazil Adopt a New Currency?
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/16-june-2003/564.html

6) Brazzil Magazine - June 2002
"The Euro Now"
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzillog.com/pages/p26jun02.htm

7) Brazzil Magazine - February 2005
"It's 2008. The US Has Dragged the World into a Depression"
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/1424/49/

8) Brazzil Magazine - Columnist: Ricardo C. Amaral
http://brazzilnews.blogspot.com/

Ricardo C. Amaral is a writer and economist. He can be reached at
brazilamaral@yahoo.com.

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RGE Monitor
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 10, 2009

The above article was also published on the RGE Monitor website, and you can read it at:

“Brazil, China and the New Asian Currency”
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral

http://www.rgemonitor.com/emer...n_currency

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...
written by Buffet, July 10, 2009

Brazil has never been in such great financial shape as in 2009 - not only most of Brazil's foreign debt has been paid, but Brazil has about $ 200 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves on hand, and for the first time in its history, in 2008 Brazil has become a credit nation - Brazil has gone from a borrowing country to a lending and investing country.

Brazil simply replaced their foreign debt with domestic debt. Why does one think we have the highest interest rates on planet earth here? Most of our tax money goes to pay the interest on the domestic debt!!! Just buy a brazilian bond and for a couple hundred thousand reais or more make 1% a month in interest!

That's one reason why investment in education is nearly non-existant!

Wonder how many zero's we would have to add to the brazilian real today to compare prices to the 1940's here in Brazil!!!!!

25?

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I like the way....
written by The Inventor, July 10, 2009

that all his references are from his own articles!!!!

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Reply to The Inventor
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 10, 2009

I did refer to my articles, as a support for the current article then if people want further information about what I am saying then they can read on my prior articles - that way I don't need to repeat a lot of the information which was included on these articles.

By the way, there is no other articles that cover that material, since I am the lonely soul that have been writing on this subject - about Brazil adopting the euro, and later about Brazil adopting the new Asian currency.

All that stuff is original writing and original thinking.

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Ludicrous, Naïve, and Dangerous
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 10, 2009

Preposterous most assuredly would be any attempt by “so-called” leaders of “emerging economies” to gamely LEAP into so unchartered terrain, deliberating the adoption of any Monetary Exchange (even if such considerations were restricted to the implementation of a new reserve currency), particularly one pertaining to questionable Asian Polities, if the underlying reasons triggering such an unprecedented shift were based - mostly - upon the recent alleged Rise of Beijing’s role as Brasilia’s no.1 trade partner or the presumption that such condition will become a firm, mutually beneficial pattern bound to develop into an unavoidable or even desirable trend… (a rather obtuse approach)

Innocent unquestionably would be any presumption by these “so-called” leaders that such “New Asian” arena would represent to potential “members” with the ideal economic environment, thus providing fair conditions along with greater freedom of movement, if the basis for this consideration were to lie upon the idyllic scenario whereby Latin America would be viewed by Beijing under an improved prism of equality and respect… (a rather comical scenario)

Perilous indeed would be the imprudent assumption by these “so-called” leaders that any association with a Totalitarian State, with ever increasing economic cloud, and owners of the most powerful military on Earth would represent anything short of a potential threat to the economic and even political independence of any unfortunately nation which were to fall under the strong grip… (a rather distressing conclusion)

Any nation who falls prey to the hazardous grip of the People’s Republic of China is doomed to find itself suffocated by the its sheer under, whereas invisible by its mighty shadow; one fears for the near inevitability that its peoples would be virtually enslaved by is oppressive system, intolerant party, and rigid Confucian nature.

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Ricardo C. Amaral
written by Forrest Allen Brown, July 10, 2009

if china money is so good why dont you move from the US
to china and get the feel of the place in the so called new
NEW YORK they rae building ????

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DONT BELEIVE IN PAPER SILVER OR GOLD & PLATIUM
written by Forrest Allen Brown, July 10, 2009

The discussion, which took place between the leaders of five emerging economies and the G8 industrialised nations, including Barack Obama, caused concern among western leaders.

"We should have a better system for reserve currency issuance and regulation, so that we can maintain relative stability of major reserve currencies exchange rates and promote a diversified and rational international reserve currency system,” said Mr Dai, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.


Related Articles
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China may seek to diversify reserves, World Bank President Robert Zoellick says
Top Chinese banker Guo Shuqing calls for wider use of yuanWhile he did not single out the dollar, Mr Dai was clearly calling for the world to diversify its reserve currency system and stabilise exchange rates among leading currencies.

China has made a series of attacks on the dollar in recent months, and went as far as to question Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, about the trustworthiness of the currency on her visit to China earlier this year.

A policy paper from the governor of the People's Bank of China also laid out an alternative to the dollar in the form of a special international reserve currency administered by the International Monetary Fund.

China holds nearly $2 trillion (£1.23 trillion) of foreign debt, the bulk of which is denominated in dollars, and has expressed its displeasure at the US government's huge deficits and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Beijing wants the US to feel obliged to sustain the value of China's assets.

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Reply to Epsilon Eridani
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 10, 2009

Are you saying that the United States is already doomed based on your theories?

Since the Chinese already are holding US$ 2 trillion dollars in US assets, with continued accumulation going sky high until the Chinese wakes up and realize that they are holding a massive amount of assets that are declining in real value

You are trying to say that the United States has already fallen prey to the hazardous grip of the People’s Republic of China and find itself doomed and suffocated by the its sheer under, whereas invisible by its mighty shadow; one fears for the near inevitability that its peoples would be virtually enslaved by is oppressive system, intolerant party, and rigid Confucian nature.
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Inevitable US decline a certainty // Inappropriate, self-delusional analogies // Amaral's earlier suggestion BY FAR more ADEQUATE
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 10, 2009

Without any shadow of a doubt, the United States of America finds itself, unfortunately, midway along its inevitable decline from the positions of Leading Economic, Military, and perhaps even Cultural Powerhouse of this planet.

Indeed, extremely myopic (if not completely irresponsible) policies from earlier administrations permitted that the Chinese government accumulated so many assets in the country, excessive levels of investment, and ridiculous, unwarranted high amounts of reserves in U.S. currency thereby granting a brutal & deceptive adversary (with highly questionable intent) a major, disproportionate advantage over its political, military & economic policies…

Yet, despite its currently steep decline and notwithstanding its above-mentioned unforgivable error, because the United States remain, at the moment, a significant military power, not to mention the largest economy on the planet, its significant but relative level of dependency to a hostile, cynic, authoritarian foe does not render it EITHER enslaved by the Chinese sheer weight, OR invisible by its shadow…. Not quite.

Comparing PAST American (major) blunders and possible future Brazilian (FATAL) errors is the canine equivalent to equating the behavior of a trained Doberman with a puppy c**ker Spaniel facing the very same PITBULL under similar circumstances and in the same arena…

Moreover, given the highly unqualified & corrupt nature of its current Leader, the extremely gullible makeup of its elite, and the boundless naïveté of its popular masses, the Brazilian nation would probably not remain a feasible, independent political entity for much longer than a decade of Chinese direct interference in its traditionally unstable economic affairs…

Lastly, might I presume to impose the suggestion you deliberate resuming your original EURO-centric considerations???

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Question to Epsilon Eridani
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 10, 2009

Why did you choose a screen name on Brazzil magazine that means the following?

Epsilon Eridani is a main-sequence star of spectral class K2. Only 10.5 light years away, it is the closest star in the constellation Eridanus, as well as the third closest star visible to the naked eye. Its age is estimated at less than a billion years. Because of its relative youth, Epsilon Eridani has a higher level of magnetic activity than the Sun, with a stellar wind 30 times as strong. Its rotation period is a relatively rapid 11.1 days, although this varies by latitude.

Epsilon Eridani is an excellent candidate for extraterrestrial life. Though it is a star of spectral type K, it is still very similar to our own sun. Epsilon Eridani is the closest star known to have a planet: and maybe two of them.

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Reply to Forrest Allen Brown
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 10, 2009

You said: “if China’s money is so good why don’t you move from the US to China and get the feel of the place in the so called new NEW YORK they are building????

I don’t need to move to China for that reason, since massive amounts of Chinese money is what has been keeping the US economy afloat for many years.
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Forrest
written by João da Silva, July 10, 2009

if china money is so good why dont you move from the US
to china

Before that or Brasil adopts "New Asian Currency", this magazine has to shift its operations to Beijing or Shangahai from L.A.! I wonder how you all manged to post your comments in spite of their server going down every 30 seconds!!

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Impertinence, Disillusionment & Irrelevance
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 11, 2009

Impertinence = a disposition to find (or make) causes for amusement; an expression of lack of respect; the trait of being rude and impertinent; inclined to take liberties; inappropriate playfulness

Given the above-referenced observation, it would appear that some inquiries may be considered, by nature or intent, inescapably inappropriate and discourteous. Consequently, it seems rather surprising that gentlemen of breed would entertain engaging into any such endeavor.

Additionally, while one feels disinclined towards complying with any such request, one also fails to perceive any possible value or consequence which one might obtain in the event any answer were to be forthcoming; furthermore, any theoretical reply to your unabashed question would scarcely shed any light into the subject matter under consideration.

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...
written by João da Silva, July 11, 2009

furthermore, any theoretical reply to your unabashed question would scarcely shed any light into the subject matter under consideration.

Sir, I would really appreciate your answering my question? How do you manage to post your comment with ease, while a simple person like me is having hard time?

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Pondering possible "cause & effect" - Mr. da Silva's query
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 11, 2009

In connection with the inquiry:

I wonder how you all manged to post your comments in spite of their server going down every 30 seconds!!

Difficult as it may have been to post entries at this site today, the most plausible explanation for its underlying cause appears to be scarcely a mystery… One would conjecture its source being linked with intense and deliberate interference from third parties located in either Beijing or Shanghai, with the objective of monitoring, scrutinizing any possible opposition to the advancement of their hidden agendas…

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Wonder how many zero's we would have to add to the brazilian real today to compare prices to the 1940's here in Brazil!!!!!
written by ch.c., July 11, 2009

25 ?
NO - "ONLY" 12 !
Brazil erased 4 x 3 zeroes...out of their currency.

but....but....but....dont worry, Brazil still pretend to have a strong currency and that the US$ is worth crap !

In fact so strong, that it is even down by 50 % since the end of 1998 ! But...but...but.....dont worry, Brazil still pretend to have a strong currency and that the US$ is worth crap !

And so are....Brazilians !

and concerning the China currency :
- why DONT the apparent smart brazilians put some of their foreign currencies into the Yuan currency ????? Put your money where your big and filthy mouth is !
- It would be so fun they do put some of their foreign currencies in the other (B)RIC currencies. Why accumlate constantly...APPARENT weak currencies AS YOU DO....AND AVOID INVESTING IN STRONG CURRENCIES....AS YOU PRETEND ?

WELLL....this is the Brazilian mentality : Avoid what is apparently good....invest in what is provable BAD !
Have brazilians, notably Ricardo, inversed the cables...in their brains ?
But.......but....Why has NO ONE yet (countries with foreign currencies reserves) bought any YUAN ??????

Because NO ONE is fool enough, except the "visionary" idiot of Ricardo Amaral, TO INVEST IN A NON FREELY TRADED & CONVERTIBLE CURRENCY !

And somewhat funny that Ricardo...the junkie proud to be a member of EliteTrader, a site with hundreds of junkies....is suddenly referring to RGE monitor that became famous with Roubini predictions...only 2 years ago or so !

sorry Ricardo Amaral, prince of junkies, but...but...but it smells a scam...typically brazilian style !
Let me have my doubts (in fact...certaintiessssss) that you have never ever been published in RGE monitor !

Be proud of your ancestrors family : A DYNASTY OF CORRUPTED TO THE ROOTS & CROOKS FAMILIES....UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE !
And now you are the active generation....continuing what your ancestrors did : PILLAGE YOUR OWN COUNTRY AND CO-CITIZENS !

You are not any better than the Sarney, ACM, Da Silva (Iniacio...not Joao ) Dirceu and all the political gangs and families controlling families !

Fact is that nearly all brazilians ALWAYS vote for corrupted to the roots people ! Why so ?
Simple :
Because they expect that, THEY TOO, will BENEFIT by being part of the gangs of the corrupts !
Therefore voting for corrupted PEOPLE is the name of the game...IN BRAZIL !
And so goes...the Brazilian mentality...for the last many many decades, and continuing TODAY !

LAST BUT NOT LEAST :
Who can read properly the following ad in this same site
http://brazzilmag.com/
BRAZIL = THE WORLD STRONGEST EMERGING MARKET - BRIC GROUP ?

Wellll...to my knowledge...wether the junkie Ricardo or other brazilians like it or not......BRAZIL HAD AND STILL HAS... THE LOWEST...NOT STRONGEST AS THEY PRETEND.... GDP GROWTH RATE OF ALL THE BRIC MEMBERS !!!!

Therefore why OPENLY CHEAT, LIE AND HIDE...time and again....time and again and time and again ???????
Wellllll.... that is in the Brazilians genes...to do so !
Proven time and again...time and again....and time and again !
And as usual, I challenge anyone to prove me wrong !

LAUGHS....LAUGHS....LAUGHS....LAUGHS....LAUGHS...LAUGHS & LAUGHS !

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Pondering possible "cause & effect" - Mr. da Silva's query
written by João da Silva, July 11, 2009

One would conjecture its source being linked with intense and deliberate interference from third parties located in either Beijing or Shanghai, with the objective of monitoring, scrutinizing any possible opposition to the advancement of their hidden agendas…

It appears that a "Fourth" party from Geneve has effectively neutralized the interference from the "Third parties" and restored the free flow of communication.

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Restoration of arrogance
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 11, 2009

When one’s sharp tongue hurls unlimited amounts of deliberate, discriminate assault against a specifically selected target, covered by boundless data from various sources, cleverly manipulated to suit one’s single-minded objective, doubtlessly communication is restored… along with the resulting controversy – embedded in harm or pain to innocent by-standers - which raw arrogance, blind insensitivity, and distasteful callousness would inescapable trigger.

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Mr.
written by John Dolph, July 11, 2009

Richard,

It seems unlikely that China will do anything to upset the dollar or the present system while so heavily invested in both. Any other entity or group createing a new "asiano" would just end up paying unrecoverable printing and minting expenses at the end of the execise without the support of China. Createing new "euro" type currencies is a silly risk in a bad world economy, and it is unlikely the targeted population would use one voluntarily. I'm certainly not your equal as a scholar but it seems to me in this case your education and grasp of nuance is preventing you from seeing what's apparent to me: Renaming a pig won't make it more valuable and might make it go off it's feed.

Forrest,

Epsilon Eridani seemed to me to be talking about how unwise it would be for Brasil or any other similar country to link itself closely with "China Inc." where impunity is integral and part of the strategy.

John Dolph

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Reflecting upon Human Derision
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 11, 2009

Cleverly directed sarcasm - as opposed to plain, malicious satire – must not be automatically equated with redundant exhibits of ill will; yet, superfluous, gratuitous enmity, when surveyed from a higher standpoint, often reveals significant aspects of the very agents responsible for its dissemination.

Nonetheless, one should hardly entertain displaying revanchist proclivities, or permitting unqualified exhibits of revulsion against the bogged-down vileness of average men; for, &, there would be no point to endeavor ignoring the possible heights that Humanity might attain, were it not so contemptible, corrupt, insensitive, and murderous.

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Reply to ch.c
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 12, 2009

As usual you don’t have a single good word to say about Brazil. You are back with your usual bashing about everything regarding Brazil and nothing else.

Ch.c thinks that because he is in Switzerland working in money laundering for the criminals and crooks of the world that makes him an expert in high finances.

I wonder how your country is going to survive in the future now that the G-20 and international pressure are going after little countries such as yours – Switzerland – a country specialized in money laundering.

Let’s discuss Switzerland for a change.

One of its major industries – is the Banking business – with its secrecy laws; this is the country where crooks, embezzlers, and all kinds of criminals hide their money.

Drug dealers, all kinds of criminal groups use that countries’ banking system as a money-laundering place to clean their dirty money.

For someone who is so self-righteous and is always bad mouthing my country – Brazil - CH.c should take some time to look around his own place – Switzerland – before he starts talking about someone else’s country. How many killings and criminal acts happen around the world all the time and his country Switzerland would not think twice to getting a piece of the action by being a haven for dirty money-laundering.


*****


I saw the article on the latest issue of “The Economist” magazine. It’s not the first time that The Economist goes after my friend former president of Brazil and current president of the senate in Brazil – Senator Jose Sarney.

I am sure that Senator Sarney will survive once again to the current political attacks.
.

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Not too terrible Senator
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 12, 2009

Given the inherent nature of the most corrupt South American polity outside Caracas, one must acknowledge the qualities of the sole Senator whom one might consider competent.

While the overwhelming majority of politicians are entirely self-interested, bogus and fraudulent, Mr. Sarney has historically demonstrated integrity, responsibility and concern for the naïve Brazilian populace… Presumably, the good Senator was nothing but the victim of a clever ploy designed to undermine his authority, thereby undermining the sole possible hope for Tropicalia’s current quagmire.

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Loyalität
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 12, 2009

The faithful defense to one’s friend, at times of enormous duress, must be acknowledged among the few human attributes…

Hence, one must take one’s “hat off” to Mr. Amaral on this particular count!

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Epsilon
written by e harmony, July 12, 2009

Epsilon,

Why do I think you like to use words for your own aggrandizement?

I like President Lula. Brazil is doing well under him. If he was so stupid as to drive Brazil into a state of the Congo, then Brazil would be there and not where it currently is. You don't need to use the overblown prose (inappropriate for the forum I might add) you use to figure out that little arithmetic nugget.

And China is no more aggressive then the contemporary United States. Pull your head out your ass. It's niggas from my area of town drilling other niggas heads into the ground overseas, and not your pompous ass alma mater. You want to meet me let me know. I'll kick your teeth threw the back of your head, and leave you paralyzed, and me in prison. I'll f*ck your daughter (or son) in her 30's when I'm coming out the joint in my 60's.

Corrupt is as corrupt is. Not as you say it is.

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A piece of Junk!
written by Tom Lloyds, July 12, 2009

A piece of junk!

Ricardo: "It is time for China to create immediately and implement a plan for the creation of a new Asian currency similar to the euro."

My reply: Ask yourself. When Euro was created, most of the European currencies were freely traded for years! Is the Yuan freely traded now?

Ricardo: “Why the euro will provide macroeconomic stability for its members?

My reply: Is it really stable? In this economic turmoil, the spread of government bonds of some European countries is so high. Do you understand why?

I think that some Brazilian may wish to Brazil to join this New Asian Currency. I do not think that Chinese will like to invite Brazil to join. Well, is it necessary to invite Brazil? Brazil is only a commodity provider. There are so many commodity providers to China in the world. Can Chinese afford to take care of every commodity providers to her?

Regarding your previous suggestion to Brazil of adopting Euro, what is the interest rate in the Euro zone now and what is the interest rate in Brazil now? There is a big difference! Why? Inflation! Can you understand?

Regarding your suggestion of this New Asian Currency, what was the interest rate in China one year ago and what was the interest rate in Japan one year ago? There was a big difference! Controlling inflation is the most important task for the Chinese government! It can create social unrest in China! China was facing inflation one year ago while Japan was facing deflation one year ago.

I cannot understand why RGE can publish this piece of junk. The whole article cannot give any any ... concrete reasoning why China should create a New Asian Currency and invite Brazil to join. Why should the Chinese take care of a commodity provider especially that it is not a major provider. If the Chinese really wishes to play the game of this New Asian Currency, the 1st commodity country that Chinese invites to join should be Australia, not Brazil.

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A piece of Junk!
written by Tom Lloyds, July 12, 2009

Ricardo:"Brazil has to build a system to avoid in the future the “hot money” that rushed in and out of emerging markets during 2008 and caused a market crash in these countries – hot money that came from irresponsible banks, hedge funds, insurance companies and many other types of speculative capital that flows regularly between financial markets in search of the highest short-term interest rates possible, and other short-term investment opportunities."

My reply: As I have pointed out in your article of Why Brazilians Should Demand the Renationalization of Petrobras, you demand nationalization of foreign investment on PBR, and you do like foreigner EVEN control a power transmission line in Brazil. If foreigner invests on the power line, of course, they will control it. Now, you wish to control the so-called hot money. If you continue to post this kind of junk, you just simply scare off all the foreign investment in Brazil. Foreigner cannot invest in oil, cannot invest in infrastructure, cannot invest in commodity and even cannot invest in financial sector as it relies on rapid movement of money. Come on! What else can foreigner invest in Brazil? A Chinese resultant to cook for the Brazilian? Even you yourself refused to invest your career future in Brazil. You live and work in USA!

You have no idea what China means. Controlling inflation is the MOST important task in the Chinese monetary policy. Serious inflation can bring serious social unrest. Can the Chinese afford to hand over their monetary policy to Japan and Brazil by creating this New Asian Currency. I would suggest you to travel extensively in China and better to live there for years to understand China before you even to write and post on the Internet.

Your post just only bring the economic hardship to Brazil rather than help!


This RGE article was written using the phase "I believe". It is not a place for religious article. I cannot even see any data or fact to back up your arguments.

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...
written by Tom Lloyds, July 12, 2009

Ricardo""
Let’s discuss Switzerland for a change.

One of its major industries – is the Banking business – with its secrecy laws; this is the country where crooks, embezzlers, and all kinds of criminals hide their money.

Drug dealers, all kinds of criminal groups use that countries’ banking system as a money-laundering place to clean their dirty money."

I really wonder whether Ricardo can understand the world. He cannot understand China and cannot understand Switzerland! Do the secrecy laws protect the criminals? Come on!!!!

I strongly suggest the this web-site to ban Ricardo to post his junk forever! He cannot understand what he is writing! Let this web-site to impose some quality control. Junk out!!!

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...
written by Tom Lloyds, July 12, 2009

Ricardo:"I don’t need to move to China for that reason, since massive amounts of Chinese money is what has been keeping the US economy afloat for many years."

Now I understand why you stay in USA and not in Brazil. Now you wish to urge China and Brazil to adapt this New Asian Currency such that the Chinese "wealth" can be moved to Brazil easily. Considering with so many hard working Chinese saved a percentage of their income to support a strong New Asian Currency while those Brazilian just relaxes and enjoys on beach, ..... Well, we can understand your intention.

As I told you before, Brazil is welcome to apply to use this New Asian Currency, don't even think that Brazil can get approval. Also I am 100% sure that Chinese has zero interest to use this New Asian Currency. They will continue their Yuan.

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Riff-Raff ignoramus
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 12, 2009

To begin with, it would appear imperative for one to rapidly clarify that words are used as one sees fit, without consideration for the approval of third parties.
Then one must move into blind comparisons between nations permitting the free flow of ideas under the RULE of LAW, versus a totalitarian, oppressive nation (in fact a former national prison) – such as the “so-called People’s Republic”…

One fails to see the logic not only in comparing but particularly in contemplating expose one’s monetary system (let alone its citizens) to such tyrannical Potentate, where individuals lack the most fundamental rights, under a legal system restricted to a sham - a well perform charade designed to accommodate the whims of a brutal click – designed to accommodate egotistical, one-sided business dealings, which may, at any given moment, becom subject to harassment, blackmail and coercion under the convenience cover of “national security”… Thanks but NO THANKS…

As for the farfetched, self-delusional scenario, where one might even consider the slightest possibility lowering oneself, and going beneath one’s class to deal with the type of scum you appear to embody, a deranged riff raff capable of monstrous threats and criminal considerations… THINK AGAIN, and ponder addressing one of your own kind! One would suggest you seriously consider seeking psychological assistance and to restrict your daily affairs at the ghetto to which you undoubtedly belong!

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Regarding Tom Lloyds postings
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 12, 2009

Regarding Tom Lloyds – this guy got obsessed with my articles, and he follows me in the web on various websites like a crazy stalker.

If this guy had a minimum of intelligence, and was able to grasp at least the basic ideas that is conveyed on these articles then it would be worth having a discussion with this guy – but it does not matter how many times you try to explain to this guy in the minimum details various parts of these articles he still can’t grasp what he read on these articles and what the information that I had a lot of patience in trying to explain to this guy.

It’s not my fault that Tom Lloyds has learning and understanding disabilities – I feel sorry that this fellow can’t grasp most concepts, and that he doesn’t understand the material that he reads.

He is not that smart, since he thinks that most of my articles are junk, but he spends a lot of time reading many of my articles and my postings.

I don’t waste a second reading any material that I think it is junk, and I don’t have time to waste even further by replying to these material.

You have to be a real idiot to get obsessed with articles and materials that are above your head and you don’t understand and consequently you think that they are junk.

All I can do is laugh – after all the time I took to explain to this guy that article about China investing $ 200 billion dollars in Brazil - Tom Lloyds still thinks that the article was about China controlling the power transmission lines in Brazil.

Because Tom Lloyds don’t have the intellect to understand that the article is about restructuring the international monetary system from the current system based in the US dollar to a system that would be more in sync with the world of the 21st century – Tom Lloyds thinks that let’s keep things as they are, because his mindset is stuck in a world long gone of the 20th century and he can’t see a different future ahead of him in any form.

This guy intellect is completely inside of the box, and to make things even worse he has a very limited vision of the future, and he is not aware of the fact that the world is being transformed at the speed of light as never seen before.

Even though I did spelled out in detail on this article the reason why it is a better option for China to develop a New Asian Currency similar to the euro, than try to use its currency the yuan as a new choice to compete with the other major global currencies – based on Tom Lloyds comments we can see that he has not grasped that information as usual.

There are 2 other things that Tom Lloyds did not grasp as usual:

1) He did not grasp that I was being sarcastic with my answer to Forrest Allen Brown when I said: “I don’t need to move to China for that reason, since massive amounts of Chinese money is what has been keeping the US economy afloat for many years.”

2) I don’t have anything against Switzerland, and I would not be mentioning Switzerland in any way on my comments – the other regular readers of Brazzil magazine know that I was just giving back in kind to ch.c (he is a Swiss citizen), since he is always bashing my country: Brazil.

Tom Lloyds don’t understand that articles published on RGE Monitor, Elite Trader, and most articles on Brazzil magazine are way above his level of comprehension. He should search the web for websites for people with similar learning and understanding disabilities as he has.
.

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Reply to John Dolph
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 12, 2009

Dear John,

I am sorry that you feel this way – quoting from your posting: “I'm certainly not your equal as a scholar…”

I am aware of my limited knowledge about everything. Most humans think that they know and understand a lot more than they really know and understand about any subject.

The truth is: we humans know and understand very little about our universe, our own world, and most subjects that we think that we have knowledge of.
.

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Reply to John Dolph
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 12, 2009

You said: “It seems unlikely that China will do anything to upset the dollar or the present system while so heavily invested in both.”

China has invested and has accumulated over a period of many years over $ 2 trillion dollars in US dollar assets.

For all practical purposes the US economic system that China has been investing for many years had a quick death in 2008. The US capitalist system has died in 2008, and the United States has a new economic system that only God knows where this economic system is headed in the coming years.

I have no idea how this new US economic system works, and in which direction the US economy is heading at the speed of light.

I know that the US government is pilling up trillions and trillions of new debt on top of what the US government already has, and that the value of the US dollar will be destroyed even further in the coming years by hyperinflation.

The capitalist system that the US had, at least since the US civil war, no longer exist after its sudden death in 2008.

I would be lying to you if I told you that I understand how the new economic system adopted last year by the United States works.

Today we have an artificial economic system distorted by all kinds of massive US government intervention, and US government guarantees to the tune of trillions of US dollars, and I am sure that without most of this massive intervention the entire US economy would implode in a massive meltdown.

Basically, the longer China waits to change and adapt to a new international monetary system as I suggested on my article – the bigger will be the pain and the monetary loss that China will hit head on in the future.

The problems will only snowball and become even bigger problems in the future for China. Or they bit the bullet today and try to fix the currency problem, or they are going to look very foolish tomorrow when they have accumulated trillions and trillions or worthless US currency.

I don’t know why people can’t grasp that a New Asian Currency similar to the euro it is only an economic arrangement for a group of countries designed to serve as an umbrella to protect the members of that group of countries regarding the dynamic realities of today’s global financial markets.

Nobody is going to force any country to adopt the New Asian Currency, and the adoption of the New Asian Currency would be voluntary by its members when they realize the advantages of belonging to such monetary arrangement.

The possible country members that can adopt the New Asian Currency would include such countries as China, Japan, India, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and even Brazil. A Central Bank would be created and the representatives of the member countries would make policies related to the new currency just like the ECB (European Central Bank) decides on policies regarding the euro.

Lets take the state of California in the United States to illustrate an actual example. The state of California if that state was an independent country it would rank as the 8th largest economy in the world.

The California economy is being protected and is under the US dollar umbrella. If California instead of being under this US dollar currency arrangement – if California had its own currency, then the economy of California would be collapsing today in the same way that the economy of Argentina collapsed a few years ago; with run on the banks, and a total economic meltdown.

This type of currency arrangement benefits most the members of such currency arrangement in many ways including lowering interest rates in general to their member countries as it was the case for many countries that became members of the euro currency arrangement.

Eliminates the currency risks among the members of such currency arrangement and also helps trading and long-term investments for that group of countries.

I give another example of the difference of the 2 currency systems that we have today. First, let’s look at the European Central Bank and the decisions that the members of that currency arrangement have to make regarding Euroland as one country. The ECB is more careful with their policies and more conservative on its decisions to protect the future value of the euro.

On the other hand, the US government has been reckless for a long time regarding the management of its currency the US dollar. The Bush administration and now Ben Bernanke and company are destroying the future value of the US currency with their complete mismanagement of the US economy and US financial markets.
.

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Reply to John Dolph
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 12, 2009

It does not make sense to me for the Chinese population to continue to work hard and have a savings rate of about 40 percent then send their hard earned money to be pissed away by the US government and the American people. And at the same time the Chinese would continue to accumulate a vast amount of US currency in the coming years that will become almost worthless by the coming hyperinflation.

Why the Chinese can see the gigantic train wreck that is just ahead of us?
.

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correction
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 12, 2009

Why the Chinese can't see the gigantic train wreck that is just ahead of us?

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Funny...
written by Jack Benny, July 12, 2009

how you scream and holler of the U.S.'s demise......from your PC in New York!

If you believed your own bulls**t one would certainly think you'd be packing your bags.

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e harmony et all
written by João da Silva, July 12, 2009

I like President Lula. Brazil is doing well under him.

Please list the reasons with stats and facts.

Pull your head out your ass. It's niggas from my area of town drilling other niggas heads into the ground overseas, and not your pompous ass alma mater. You want to meet me let me know. I'll kick your teeth threw the back of your head, and leave you paralyzed, and me in prison. I'll f*ck your daughter (or son) in her 30's when I'm coming out the joint in my 60's.

You are vulgar beyond my belief. Both our distinguished and respectable American fellow bloggers like Mr.Brown, Bo, ASP, etc; would agree with me (not to forget our friend from Switzerland who disdains all the folks from the Americas). Is it the way you are being raised in the U.S.? If so, America is screwed.

To Dom.Erdani:

While the overwhelming majority of politicians are entirely self-interested, bogus and fraudulent, Mr. Sarney has historically demonstrated integrity, responsibility and concern for the naïve Brazilian populace… Presumably, the good Senator was nothing but the victim of a clever ploy designed to undermine his authority, thereby undermining the sole possible hope for Tropicalia’s current quagmire.

Please do explain in 10 sentences why the "good senator was nothing but the victim......".

To: Tom Llyods:

I strongly suggest the this web-site to ban Ricardo to post his junk forever! He cannot understand what he is writing! Let this web-site to impose some quality control. Junk out!!!

Are you advocating "suppression of speech" ? It may function in PRC, but not in the "free world" like ours! Nevertheless, I must admit that you have made some good points and for that reason, I am willing to overlook your authoritarian zeal to prevent others from expressing their opinions.

Thank ya all for taking your precious time off to read my humble comments.

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João da Silva
written by Tom Lloyds, July 12, 2009

João da Silva: Are you advocating "suppression of speech"


Absolutely not! Free speech has its limit. Look at what Ricardo has posted. Does he really understand the Swiss's secrecy laws? If someone accuses others criminals without even any proof or evidence, it is a serious offense!!!!

If someone has some common sense on what is happening in the world, one can know the Swiss's attitude on money laundry.

I strongly urge this web-site to ban Ricardo from posting forever!

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I make a mistake. This sentence should be in bold font.
written by Tom Lloyds, July 12, 2009

I strongly urge this web-site to ban Ricardo from posting forever!

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Addressing outstanding query - - - Speculating possible scenarios
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 12, 2009

While one would not be in a position to provide specific examples as to how, why or whom might be involved in a "feasible" scenario whereby Senator might have been "set up", one entertains its possibility, given the significant interests of various possible "parties" which could easily have reasons to overtly or covertly oppose the former President.

One is also not asserting in any fashion, that the Senator would necessarily be entirely innocent from any of current allegations, not that he would be automatically immune from quasi-illegal deeds, from some manipulation of funds, or from having “ever” acted at one time or another in less then idyllic ways... Yet, considering the “quality” of his fellow congressional associates, one could comfortably conjecture that the Senator under consideration might be included among the least corrupt senior politicians in Brasilia.

Given the filth set forth by the nearly criminal socialist (so-called labor) administration, and in light of the "formal" association which President Sarney's party unfortunately (and strangely) holds with the immoral (often absent) element sitting in Planalto, conceivably, certain senior elements within his mob of associates could be discretely disclosing fabricated, manipulated data along with some factual details to elements who would be legitimately poised to confront and “expose” the Leader of the Senate with the current allegations.

Hopefully this brief summary of likely scenarios has sufficed to clarify any possible reservation on your part.

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Tom Llyods
written by João da Silva, July 12, 2009

I make a mistake.

To err is human. Regardless of the font you used I understood the message.

I strongly urge this web-site to ban Ricardo from posting forever!

You may strongly urge or gently nudge the website, but they are not going to listen to you. Besides, if Mr.Amaral is banned, you are going to vanish from the site too and it is not profitable for them. So quit trying to suppress the freedom of speech of others.

If someone has some common sense on what is happening in the world, one can know the Swiss's attitude on money laundry.

We all know about the "Swiss attitude" on money and money laundering, as the top Swiss expert on such issues is a regular blogger in this site and he keeps us all well informed. Fortunately he believes in "freedom of speech", especially his!!!

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Politely opposing Mr. Lloyd's demands
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 12, 2009

While clearly in opposition to the crux of Mr. Amaral's proposed economical association with a Totalitarian, brutal polity, and while in agreement with some of your challenging arguments, one could hardly accept the banishment of a respectable blogger from this (or any) site!

The objection to one's views or ideas should hardly be utilized as the object of exclusion, especially when tanking into account that any such act would stand in full contradiction with the very nature of civilized consortiums, particularly when any such grouping or association operates within the framework of free, civilized societies and/or polities. Any such behavior would simply emulate the brutal, tyrannical behavior of the very political entity which is the subject of our common opposition.

In addition, one could hardly expect any blog, site or assemblage to preclude a Gentlemen of breed (who could be also be considered as highly educated, perhaps even an intellectual of his own right) to continue contributing to the overall enrichment of Brazzil.com with his views and opinions.

In its stead, one would rather advance, in strong terms, the banishment of a much more deserving “entity”. Naturally, one is referring to certain allegedly "harmonic" elements who not only lack any bare qualification, sensitivity, and manners to remain in our midst, but also brandishes violent thoughts while issuing odious threats, as if he were amongst his own kind within a sordid back alley of some unspeakable ghetto!

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...
written by Pedro Arruda, July 12, 2009

Wow. The author is soooo brilliant. He should be running the world, instead of Lula. I hope this article was a joke.

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Epsilon Eridani
written by João da Silva, July 13, 2009

Hopefully this brief summary of likely scenarios has sufficed to clarify any possible reservation on your part.

No sir.I am not convinced. But...But..., considering that you are new to this planet, I suggest you exercise the infamous "Swiss Neutrality". In case you don't know where Switzerland is located, I humbly recommend you to use Google Earth.

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Neutrality? Perhaps an "overrated" concept? One shall endeavor to learn...
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 13, 2009

Swiss Neutrality... How fascinating!

Are you perhaps referring to the same “neutral state” which willingly repatriated members of a certain “cast” across the border circa 1939-1941?
Are you actually inferring the same “neutral nation” which knowingly returned its “guests” (asylum seekers… I gather…) into the claws of of their government? (Composed of mostly butchers, one gathers...)
Are you intentionally praising the same “neutral polity” which unabashedly profited from monetary deposits belonging of the same “clients” it indirectly expedited towards “Konzentrationsläger”?
THAT Switzerland (also known as “la Suisse”, “die Schweiz”, and “La Svizzera”)?
And, from THAT one should derive the meaning of neutrality?
I see…
One is enormously thankful indeed for your invaluable assistance, Signore da Silva.
Grazie!

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...
written by Tom Lloyds, July 13, 2009

Ricardo always wishes Brazil can share the same currency with China.

The Canadian would says,"Thanks God! Canada does not adopt the New American Currency with the USA otherwise the Canadian wealth will pass to USA during this financial crisis."

From all Ricardo's arguments, I can tell that he wishes to pass the Chinese wealth to Brazil.

It is true that most of the Chinese reserve is in US dollars. However, diversification of Chinese reserve in different currencies is completely different from surrendering the monetary authority by adapting this so-called New Asian Currency. Demising of the buying power of US dollar is not the reason to adapt this New Asian Currency. The Chinese is moving the right way to raise the issue of Special Withdrawing Unit which contains a basket of different currencies.

From Ricardo's articles, I can conclude that he confuses with the difference.

I have urged him before, For the sake of Chines, Brazilian and the people of the world, please keep your hands off!

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Tom Llyods
written by João da Silva, July 13, 2009

The Chinese is moving the right way to raise the issue of Special Withdrawing Unit which contains a basket of different currencies.

Could you please explain this concept briefly?

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Special Withdrawing Unit
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 13, 2009

This is hardly a new idea, yet an interesting concept whereby natios would hold reserves in such theoretical unit which would be composed by a number of major currencies, which would have to be established by a major international organization, and universaly acceptted by every nation.

Under these circumstances, for instance, if a given polity were to hold, say 1 billion S.W.U (Special Withdrawing Unit), assuming the formula would have been determined as per my example, such nation would actually have
40% of USD
30% of EUR
20% of GBP
10% of JPY
Presuming this is underlying concept for S.W.I., it could possibly imply a more reasonable, desireble solution!

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Epsilon Eridani
written by João da Silva, July 13, 2009

Thank you Mr.Eridani, for your (unusually) brief explanation!

Presuming this is underlying concept for S.W.I., it could possibly imply a more reasonable, desireble solution!

You are right in the sense that to hold a nation´s reserves in a "basket" of currencies (or for trading purposes) sounds wiser than to peg to one specific currency.It seems PRC is in the right track according to what Mr.Llyods informs us. It is quite possible that our Central Bank is also thinking in these lines as per the news I am picking up. I read that,for a starter, the trade between Brasil and PRC can be conducted using the currencies of the respective countries.I am not sure how it will work out for Brasil, which has already turned into a commodity exporter and finished goods importer!!

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...
written by Tom Lloyds, July 14, 2009

Ricardo:"I don't understand why China is giving any consideration regarding the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Right (SDR)"

Tom: Now can you understand? Your whole article shows that you cannot understand the issue. The solution of the demise of US dollar is the Special Drawing Right! Chinese is smart and they are moving in the right direction. The problem of the demise of US dollar is not to surrender the monetary and exchange authority to Brazil and Japan. Why should the Chinese take care of Brazil?

The future of Brazil may depend on China as you once claimed but the future of China does not depend on Brazil.

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...
written by João da Silva, July 14, 2009

The future of Brazil may depend on China as you once claimed but the future of China does not depend on Brazil.

The future of any nation depends on the people and the leadership they elect,select or imposed upon, Tom. Among the BRIC bloc, the leaders of I & C are aware of this fact and therefore treading a fine line to keep their people and allies happy. I don't blame them for being smart and cautious while dealing with their trading partners.

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considering the "I" and the "c"
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 14, 2009

Given the fact that the "C" is sharing several regional forums, and pursuing agreements with the "R", it would make much more sense for the "I" to be more closely associate with the "B" (as it appears to be doing according to some trends I have noted)

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...
written by João da Silva, July 14, 2009

it would make much more sense for the "I" to be more closely associate with the "B" (as it appears to be doing according to some trends I have noted)

Yes, there is some sort of trend. But...But..., they were responsible for scuttling the last round of "Doha" talks . I don't think it went well with our "rulers". ch.c knows some important folks from "I" and his info on "I" is 100% correct.

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My Reply to a Chinese Gentleman at the RGE Monitor website
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 15, 2009

Reply to Mr. Huyu

If you read most of my articles published by Brazzil magazine, and my postings on Elite Trader Forum among other places – you would find out that I have a great admiration for the policies adopted by the Chinese government in regard to the economic development of China. The Chinese government has been doing an outstanding job in lifting such a large number of people out of poverty in China.

Today China has reached a point on its economic that the Chinese government has no choice but to restructure its internal economy from being so much focused to the export market, and create a massive domestic market to sell its goods and improve the standard of living of hundreds of millions of the other portion of the Chinese population that has not participated on this great progress that has been achieved in the Chinese economy.

I understand that China is starting to improve the safety nets necessary for the Chinese population to be able to reduce its rate of savings and make possible increased domestic consumption of goods and services.

I would have not suggested on my articles to link the Brazilian economy with China as I have been doing for many years if I did not believe that this connection would be mutually beneficial for both countries – I am thinking about the world of tomorrow and not the world of yesterday - and I am sure that China will grow and prosper even faster in the coming years with the assistance of the outstanding group The Overseas Chinese and its network of networks – to give you a better understanding of the spirit that is behind this special group of people I quote from my article “Here is why Brazil should adopt the new Asian currency” as follows:

“...The family business of the Overseas Chinese are networks of companies and other enterprises. And they are, in turn, woven together to constitute a huge global Chinese network of networks. Internet is the model for understanding. Just as the Internet is a network of about 25,000 networks, the Overseas Chinese networks number in the tens of thousands.

The number of networks and individuals on the Internet is not limited because the Internet is totally decentralized. ...It is decentralized right down to the individual; only the individual can access the Internet. Because of this complete decentralization, the Internet can have as many members as want to join. Similarly, the Overseas Chinese network can get as big as it needs to be to transform Asia's economy.
The other general characteristic of both the Internet and the Overseas Chinese network is that no one is in charge; the marketplace is. With the Internet, it is the marketplace of ideas and information, though, more recently, the commercial marketplace as well. With the Overseas Chinese network, market mechanisms are the deciding factor. Motherland or not, economic decisions involving China are driven purely by dictates of the market and guided strictly by rates of return.

Individual Overseas Chinese networks of companies are completely decentralized from the whole and they are extraordinarily efficient parts....The Chinese function efficiently as individuals....This mode of operation makes the Chinese, and their enterprises, immensely nimble in the competitive global economy. They react speedily to changing conditions, especially to political vagaries.

...Also, the individualistic Chinese want to have control of their own destiny. The Chinese proverb has it that "There is no prospect working for others." Everyone wants to be at the center and be his own boss. This inner entrepreneurial drive makes the Chinese very proactive, risk-taking and enterprising.”

You will also find very interesting reading some of my postings regarding China at:

06-02-05
SouthAmerica: After I posted some information on the PBS message board on April 2, 2005 regarding the “China Price” someone who is a regular member of that board (Darkmoon) asked a few questions, and here are my answers to his questions regarding China….You can read it at:

"The China Price" - The best business article I have seen in years
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...post763133

My screen name on the Elite Trader Forum is: SouthAmerica.
The thread “The China Price” so far has 212 postings and 31,441 views.

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Continue my Reply to Mr. Huyu
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 15, 2009

I have no idea why China is even contemplating the issue regarding Special Drawing Rights (SDR’S)?

The SDR’s were created for the world of yesterday, and even then they did not had much use for that special set up. If the creating of SDR’s were a good idea, other than its very limited use – then SDR’s would have become a major portion of most countries foreign exchange reserves.

I don’t know why China is wasting time looking at that solution, since for all practical purposes that system is based on the US dollar.

In the world of today, (and in the future for that matter) we have trillions of US dollars in international transactions happening every day – and I can’t see and it does not make sense to me how a international monetary system would work with SDR’s becoming a major player in international finance.

“The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement the existing official reserves of member countries. SDRs are allocated to member countries in proportion to their IMF quotas. The SDR also serves as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations. Its value is based on a basket of key international currencies.

…The SDR is neither a currency, nor a claim on the IMF. Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members.”

Source: IMF - A Factsheet - February 2009
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm


You can read about Special Drawing Rights (SDR’S) also at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...ing_Rights


No new SDRs had been created between 1981 and the 2008 banking crisis: Only 21.4 billion of them currently exist (equal in value to $31.9 billion) On 2 April 2009, the G-20 authorized the IMF to issue $250 billion in new SDRs to augment the foreign reserves of IMF members and quickly channel resources into emerging economies. Increases in the reserves of some emerging economies will be substantial i.e. South Korea’s will grow by $3.4 billion, India’s by $4.8 billion, Brazil’s by $3.5 billion, Russia’s by $6.9 billion and China’s by $7.3 billion.
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Continue my Reply to Mr. Huyu
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 15, 2009

Reply to Mr. Huyu

I understand that the US government officials want to stretch the US dollar predominance in international trading and finance as long as they can, even after that system has passed the point of usefulness for the entire global community.

The US dollar played a unique role for the currency of any country to play for such a long time, and today the role of the US dollar is out of sync with the economic realities of the 21st century.

When I made the suggestion that it is time for China to create and adopt a new currency – the new Asian currency – an international monetary arrangement among countries similar to the euro in Euroland – I was thinking about the future, starting tomorrow morning and not a few years from now, since eventually China and the Asian countries will arrive to the conclusion that such financial arrangement is the best bet for all the countries involved.

I am aware of the though economic competition that is going on all the time between countries such as China, India, and Japan. I am also aware of the political obstacles that these countries have to overcome for such currency arrangement to become reality.

I am aware that international trading is a very important piece of the economy of countries such as China and Japan.

My answer to the people who try to find all kinds of excuses for China not create the New Asian Currency is as follows: Germany is the number one exporting country in the world, and the German economy represents a large piece of Euroland and its currency the euro. The Germans and the French were able to overcome their old thinking about losing their sovereignty if they adopted the euro, they also overcame their political issues, and a long-term distrust of each other, and both countries realized that by adopting the euro both countries would be in better shape economically in the future.

The monetary and financial arrangement of the countries that comprise the euro is far from being perfect, but the countries that belong in that system are in far better shape than if they were not under the euro’s umbrella. The global financial meltdown would have been a lot worst for individual countries if they were not part of the euro system.

Right now, the economy of California, and other states for that matter, such as Michigan would be going through a massive economic and financial meltdown, similar to what happened to the economy of Argentina just a few years ago – if these states were not under the umbrella and protection of the US dollar system, then we would be having a run in the banks, and a complete economic meltdown on these states.

In my opinion, it is a major mistake at this point for China to try to develop its own currency the yuan into a major reserve currency, since that would be the wrong way to go based on the economic realities of today, and the new ways of operating of the global monetary system of the 21st century.

If China continues on the current path, or try to pursue new strategies based on SDR’s, or try to push the yuan as a new reserve currency that would show that the Chinese mindset is stuck on the past, and not on the solutions that are beneficial for the future.

The creation of a New Asian Currency would give the opportunity for countries such as China, Japan, India, Taiwan, Honk Kong, Singapore, and even Brazil to adopt such a new currency, and eliminate the foreign exchange “risk” among these countries and open the doors for fast expanding trading growth, and also to great new opportunities for long-term investments – since these countries would be making these long-term investment in local currency – the New Asian Currency.

Eventually we always have some international financial and monetary crisis, and when that happens the economies of the countries that have adopted this new currency - the new Asian currency – would be in better shape than if all these countries had continued with their current currencies. The New Asian Currency would serve as an umbrella to protect its members from major economic and financial shock in the future – and this new financial arrangement it would be beneficial and protect even the economic system of countries such as China, Japan, and Brazil. It would be a win-win situation for all the members that decided to participate in such a new monetary arrangement.
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My short answer to your long reply to that Chinese Gentleman
written by Tom Lloyds, July 15, 2009

""Thank God! We are not using the same New American Currency with the American otherwise our wealth will be moved to the South", said a Canadian Gentleman.

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Continue my Reply to Mr. Huyu
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 15, 2009

Reply to Mr. Huyu

As you mentioned on your last posting: “The second is economical. We know fully well that the Chinese economic is not mature enough, we are currently only a US$ 4 trillion economy; at least a US$ 10 trillion economy can be considered to be mature enough to withstand the shocks of any currency movement.”

Basically you just helped me make my point, and let me clarify to you a little further as follows:

You still are thinking in terms of China, and the yuan by itself, and a very slow process ahead of China to achieve its goals.

Now just consider what happens when you start thinking in terms of the New Asian Currency, and the countries that could participate on this new powerful monetary arrangement.

A new vision of the future emerges immediately, and the entire ball game changes in front your eyes, and the New Asian Currency becomes almost overnight a powerhouse similar to the euro – and backed by a sound economic system, and strong foreign exchange reserves and gold.

When we do our analysis in GDP at official exchange rate then:

China = US$ 4.2 trillion (2008 est.)
Japan = US$ 4.84 trillion (2008 est.)
India = US$ 1.24 trillion (2008 est.)
South Korea = US$ 858 billion (2008 est.)
Taiwan = US$ 402 billion (2008 est.)
Hong Kong = US$ 224 billion (2008 est.)
Singapore = US$ 155 billion (2008 est.)
Thailand = US$ 272.1 billion (2008 est.)
Indonesia = US$ 511 billion (2008 est.)
Malaysia = US$ 215 billion (2008 est.)
Brazil = US$ 1.67 trillion (2008 est.)

New Asian Currency - Total = US$ 14.57 trillion (2008 est.)


Compared with:

European Union = US$ 18.85 trillion (2008 est.)*

United States = US$ 14.33 trillion (2008 est.)


1) Note (*) : GDP at official exchange rate for the European Union is inflated by the figures related to the member countries that are members of the European Union but are not part of the European Monetary euro currency system such as the UK, Sweden, Denmark and so on…

2) Note: Keep in mind …Fujitsu Research in Tokyo looked at the listed companies in just six key Asian countries. As its findings below illustrate, the overwhelming majority were owned by the global network of Chinese entrepreneurs; the Overseas Chinese Network as follows: Thailand 81 percent, Singapore 81 percent, Indonesia 73 percent, Malaysia 61 percent…

Conclusion: Based on the above analysis the “New Asian Currency” would be as powerful as the US dollar, and the euro.

And the economies of the countries that have adopted the “New Asian Currency” would now be under a more stable umbrella, and they would be better protected from sudden international monetary crisis. And by eliminating the foreign exchange risks among the countries that have adopted this new currency, new investment and trading opportunities will emerge and help these countries develop new markets and integrate its economies and create great prosperity.

The new synergy among the member countries would open the doors to the global network of Chinese entrepreneurs to do their magic, and create spectacular economic results; with the Overseas Chinese Network.

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Continue my Reply to Mr. Huyu
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 15, 2009

China:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 7.8 trillion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 4.2 trillion (2008 est.)


Japan:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 4.35 trillion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 4.84 trillion (2008 est.)


India:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 3.27 trillion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 1.24 trillion (2008 est.)


South Korea:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 1.27 trillion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 858 billion (2008 est.)


Taiwan:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 739 billion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 402 billion (2008 est.)


Hong Kong:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 308 billion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 224 billion (2008 est.)


Singapore:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 240 billion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 155 billion (2008 est.)


Thailand:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 553.4 billion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 272.1 billion (2008 est.)


Indonesia:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 915.9 billion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 510.8 billion (2008 est.)


Malaysia:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 386.6 billion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 214.7 billion (2008 est.)


Brazil:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 1.99 trillion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 1.67 trillion (2008 est.)


European Union:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 14.82 trillion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 18.85 trillion (2008 est.)

Between 2004 and 2007, the EU admitted 12 countries that are, in general, less advanced technologically and economically than the other 15. Eleven established EU member states introduced the euro as their common currency on 1 January 1999 (Greece did so two years later), but the UK, Sweden, and Denmark chose not to participate. Of the 12 most recent member states, only Slovenia (1 January 2007) and Cyprus and Malta (1 January 200 have adopted the euro; the remaining nine are legally required to adopt the currency upon meeting EU's fiscal and monetary convergence criteria.


United States:

GDP at (purchasing power parity) = US$ 14.29 trillion (2008 est.)

GDP at official exchange rate = US$ 14.33 trillion (2008 est.)

Source: for GDP at (purchasing power parity), and for GDP at official exchange rate
CIA – The World Factbook 2009

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Two Brazilian bloggers seem fully committed and subservient to outside powers
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 15, 2009

While one bows to totalitarian Chinese, the other curtsies to arrogant Swiss…
While the former seems to be willing to take any measure, at any cost, to please his newly acquired East Asian Overlords, the other will not hesitate to continue acquiescing to the condescending manners of his Central European Master…
It’s not surprising that Tropicallia shall always remain, perpetually, the “pathetic” little “giant of the future”!

What a dismal situation!
The Historical Jose Bonifacio and Floriano Peixoto must be twisting in their graves in sheer shame and disgust!
How dreadfully heartbreaking…

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Caution to the Chinese servants in Brazil
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 15, 2009

Recently two foreign employees of the Anglo-Australian conglomerate “Rio Tinto” were arrested under by the oppressive, totalitarian neo-Leninist authorities in the P.R.C. It appears they are being accused of espionage. Since nearly any foreign worker/impresario within Chinese soil is potentially subject to being accused under the vague provisions of their “so-called” National Security regulations, you should stay alert and make sure that you remain on your knees, thereby ascertaining that your masters fake smiles do not vanish from their round faces, lest you find yourself yet another victim… a pawn utilized to secure additional concessions from Brasilia…

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Limitations of one-party system: absence of basic rights & random legal interpretation
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 15, 2009

How can one possibly consider placing his/her economic future under the command of a nation which their own citizens forfeit their basic "human" rights to its oppressive government, thereby exposing themselves (and submitting) to a brutal system which may arbitrarily interpret its "so-called" legal system when deciding their fate and welfare...

If their own people are treated in such a fashion, amidst a myriad of secrecy, one can only conjecture what could be accorded to citizens of other nations, particularly those which are bound to be considered "inferior devils"?

(Note: the term "devil" - or "foreign devil" was until recently a commonly applied Chinese terminology designed for non-Chinese elements)

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Epsilon Eridani
written by João da Silva, July 15, 2009

Two Brazilian bloggers seem fully committed and subservient to outside powers

Sir, I get a feeling that one of these bloggers is my good and honourable self. I would be much obliged if you could kindly confirm that this cheap shot was aimed at me. In the event it was aimed at me, I take umbrage to your remarks and invite you for a verbal duel.

Sincerely yours

J. Da Silva

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Signore da Silva
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 15, 2009

There was no intention to offend...

Although the statement was entirely NOT premeditated, and may have been based upon intangible perceptions, one could not refrain from extrapolating, in view of a series of previous statements:

It appears that a "Fourth" party from Geneve has effectively neutralized the interference from the "Third parties" and restored the free flow of communication

(not to forget our friend from Switzerland who disdains all the folks from the Americas).

We all know about the "Swiss attitude" on money and money laundering, as the top Swiss expert on such issues is a regular blogger in this site and he keeps us all well informed. Fortunately he believes in "freedom of speech", especially his!!!

considering that you are new to this planet, I suggest you exercise the infamous "Swiss Neutrality". In case you don't know where Switzerland is located, I humbly recommend you to use Google Earth

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Continue my Reply to Mr. Huyu
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 15, 2009

Reply to Mr. Huyu

After reading your posting I realized that there is one more point that I need to make very clear.

You said: “Perhaps in another 10 years Brazil can seriously contemplate pegging the currency to the Yuan, but if it ever to happen, it should be imperceptible as truly automatically accepted by the world economies without our deliberate asserting it.”

The point that I need to clarify to all the readers is: I never suggested in any of my articles, including the above article, that Brazil adopt at any point the current Chinese currency – the yuan.

If you read all the articles then you realize that I am always talking about the “New Asian Currency” a similar monetary arrangement between nations such as the euro in Euroland.

I don’t want Brazil to adopt China’s currency the yuan at any time, since that is 20th century thinking and a world long gone.

My proposal for the “New Asian Currency” is a monetary system to be relevant to the global monetary system of the 21st century, and help the country members of this new monetary arrangement similar to the euro to lift its economies into prosperity and eliminate among the members of the new monetary arrangement the foreign exchange risks – in turn lowering interest rates on these countries, increase trading and long-term investments also among the members of the new monetary arrangement.

This new system would help increase the trading and long-term investments between countries such as China, Japan and Brazil, because all this trading and long-term investments would be made in local currency – the “New Asian Currency.”

And you can bet that between the long-term experiences of Central Bankers from countries such as China, Japan, Brazil, India, Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Honk Kong, and Malaysia – the “New Asian Currency” would be managed in an effective way to benefit the members of this new monetary arrangement.

In the last 10 years the European Central Bank (ECB) has been doing a very good job regarding the management of the euro, and I am sure that the New Asian Central Bank can replicate in Asia the success of the euro in Euroland in the last 10 years.

It takes time to replace the current monetary system with a similar system such as the euro, and you need to start the process at a certain point, and move forward according to plan. I am sure that this “New Asian Currency” can be up and running a lot faster than the euro system in Euroland.

Maybe China needs first, a massive US dollar meltdown, and hyperinflation destroying the value of the US currency turning it into confetti, before they realize that they need to put the new show on the road ASAP – the “New Asian Currency.”

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Reply to Epsilon Eridani
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 15, 2009

Epsilon Eridani said: “Limitations of one-party system: absence of basic rights & random legal interpretation”


*****


It is amazing to me that China is able to operate at all with its 1.3 billion population.

Here is what I wrote about 4 years ago about China that I posted on the Elite Trader Forum. It is interest information about China as follows:


*****


06-02-05 06:49 PM
SouthAmerica: After I posted some information in the PBS message board on April 2, 2005 regarding the “China Price” someone who is a regular member of that board (Darkmoon) asked a few questions, and here are my answers to his questions regarding China.

*****

April 2 2005

SouthAmerica: I have a hard time trying to figure out how to fix things in Brazil a country with less than 200 million people. I have no idea how anyone can run the Chinese economy.

In reality China is two-countries in one, in the same manner that Brazil is two-countries in one. In Brazil we have 80 million people living a life no different than a life of an average European, or an average American, then we have the other Brazil with over 100 million people living in complete poverty.

In China we probably have 150 million Chinese living the good life; with a good job and a decent standard of living, and then you have the other China with 1.2 billion or more people living in poverty.

I heard in the radio the other day that 70 percent of the Chinese population today who are peasants - still living out of their local agricultural system. But as China’s economy develops in the near future, these people will be displaced and they will flood the already overpopulated major Chinese towns. If only half of these people decide to move to the large Chinese cities plus the regular growth of the population, we are talking about 600 or 700 million people moving to town. The Chinese will need to build approximately 30 new cities of the size of Sao Paulo or Mexico City (about 20 million people)

Where do you put 30 new cities with 20 million people each? You need a reservoir of water for each city, an infrastructure and everything else that a big city needs to survive.

If anything I find amazing that China is doing so well, and doesn’t blow itself up into a nasty civil war between the have’s and have not’s people.

China is doing very well in the global economy, but even though China is taking away a lot of jobs from the United States, Europe and South America, China still losing more jobs from their old structure than they are wining with the new ball game – Only Brazil had a bigger loss of manufacturing jobs during the period 1995 – 2002 than China. The major economies of the world had a net loss of over 22 million manufacturing jobs during that period.

China has over 100 million people unemployed today; and many millions more are underemployed.

I find China to be a mind-bogging place to me. If I were in charge of the economic development of China I would not know where to start.

Let me put in perspective to you: look at the United States supposed to be the richest country in the world, but when you look around the infrastructure of the country it is very old and obsolete and in disrepair; the subway system in New York needs at least $ 17 billion dollars in the next 5 years just to keep the system from collapsing. Plus the New York water system, the power grid, and so on need many more billions of new investments.

Then you go around the United States and you find out that the same story is going on in city after city. To bring the current US infrastructure to an acceptable level the US government needs to make at least $ 1.6 trillion dollars investment.

If the United States with only 295 million people can’t keep up its infrastructure in decent shape, can you imagine the problem that the Chinese must have with 1.3 billion people?

How do you provide health care and education for 1.3 billion people? How 1.3 billion people move inside a country a little bigger than the US? Everything about China is mind-boggling to me; how to supply water to the population? How about the transportation system? How they are able to feed 1.3 billion people?

I agree with you that the Chinese leadership is “not” a bunch of morons; otherwise if they were then China would be in big trouble today.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...post760886

Note: My screen name on the Elite Trader Forum is: SouthAmerica.

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The cost of (fake) Red growth // Leninism is conducive to the nature of Confucian societies…
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 15, 2009

There is no amount of praise for China that could ever possibly persuade me that such a relatively comfortable penitentiary could ever be equated with a fully civilized, advanced nature…

Firstly, in light of the historical, culture nature of Chinese society, it very convenient fits the tyrannical disposition of the current Market Leninist country of China.

Yet, nobody in his/her right mind would question the advances recently made by the P.R.C.
Yet, at what costs are such achievements attained?
By virtually moving entire populations, nearly at gun-point whenever a major hydro-electric plant is planned?
By sending tanks to virtually flatten protesting students in Tiananmen Square (1989)
By systematically refraining its citizen’s from full exchange of ideas
By brutally suppressing (and oppressing) Tibetan “citizens, whose very culture is now endangered by increasingly greater numbers of ethnic Han elements
By selectively permitting the western media to cover the desperate reaction of muslin majorities when their own (Han) kind is attacked
By imprisoning foreign workers (accused of “so-called “espionage”) whenever they intend to obtain better terms (or strongly object to procedures) of the companies they represent

No… Thanks
You may enjoy your Torturing bunch of Barbarian Devils
Hopefully, you will not get your way….

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...
written by João da Silva, July 16, 2009

There was no intention to offend...

Although the statement was entirely NOT premeditated, and may have been based upon intangible perceptions, one could not refrain from extrapolating, in view of a series of previous statements:

I wasn't offended sir. A bit chagrined that our joint strategy isn't working!!!

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Reply to Epsilon Eridani
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 17, 2009

In my opinion, many of your comments about China are unreasonable when you take in consideration the size of the population of that country.

We can’t apply the same concepts of human rights that the modern world has developed over the last few decades in the West to places such as most of the African Continent, China, and India.

The concept of “Human Rights” reaches realistic diminishing returns regarding population explosion. The more human beings concentrated in an area the more the concept of human rights goes down the toilet.

In India the largest democracy in the world – a few years back I was watching this documentary about India including Calcutta. For you to see the extent that human life losses its value in countries with massive populations and scarce resources – the one subject that they showed on that documentary that called my attention and I remember very clearly to this day was the fact that Calcutta had millions of very poor and destitute people living on its slums around Calcutta, and many people would just die and their dead bodies would stay some times for an entire week until the weekly cart went around town collecting these dead bodies. They showed the cart collecting the bodies of these people, and some of the bodies had stayed on the sidewalk for days waiting for the weekly collection – just like regular garbage.

They showed how most people would go by these bodies as if they were not there and the people were used with that kind of system that was shocking to me.

The concept of “Human Rights” is a relative concept that not every country of the world can have the luxury of adopting it and actually putting it into practice.

As I mentioned before in one of my postings I find China to be a fascinating country for many reasons, and it is mind-boggling to me that China with its 1.3 billion people can function at all.

It would be impossible to have democracy in China today, as we have in Brazil, the United States and in many other countries around the world.

I am sure that if we were able to implant democracy in China such as we have in Brazil – China would be in chaos in no time and they would engulf itself into a nasty civil war.

At this point of China’s economic development – China needs a strong and authoritarian government as they have today – without that China would be in complete chaos.

Since you are bashing everything about China, please tell me how you would handle differently the development of a country such as China with 1.3 billion people from the very poor country that they had 20 years ago to the successful economy that they have today?

Remember China has lifted over 200 million people out of poverty and destitution in such a short period of time – during that same period we were able to lift just a few million people out of complete poverty and destitution in Brazil – and Brazil is supposed to be a democracy. I also want to remind you that the Brazilian economy did very well when the generals were in charge.
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Reply to Epsilon Eridani
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 17, 2009

Regarding the Tibet:

Tibet is the highest region on earth, with an average elevation of 4,900 meters (16,000 ft). It is sometimes referred to as the “roof of the world.”

Tibet was first unified under King Songtsan Gampo in the seventh century. A government nominally headed by the Dalai Lamas, a line of spiritual leaders, ruled a large portion of the Tibetan region at various times from the 1640s until 1950s. During most of this period, the Tibetan administration was subordinate to the Chinese empire of the Qing Dynasty. The 13th Dalai Lama proclaimed Tibet independent in 1913 after the fall of the Qing dynasty, but this declaration was not accepted by China, nor recognized by any country as a de jure independent nation. Only three of the fourteen Dalai Lamas have actually ruled Tibet; regents ruled during 77 percent of the period from 1751 until 1960. The Communist Party of China gained control of central and western Tibet (Tibet area controlled by the Dalai Lama) after a decisive military victory at Chamdo in 1950. The 14th Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959.

Tibet was part of China, and it was a mistake for the 13th Dalai Lama to try to separate Tibet from China. In 1950 the Communist Party gained control back of the Tibet the area controlled by the Dalai Lama – that military victory was ugly because in one side they had a the communist army, and in the other a bunch of religious Buddhist monks.

That reconquest of Tibet became a sad chapter of the history of China – even more because Buddhism is a very peaceful religion.

If you check the CIA – 2009 The World Factbook, they don’t even list Tibet as a separate country, even though they do list Taiwan. That means that the United States recognizes that Tibet has been always part of China.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/


*****


Regarding the Tiananmen Square

The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 culminating in the Tiananmen Square massacre were up to 2,500 people died. (If we put this event in the right perspective and realize that this happened in a country with 1.3 billion people…)

The protests were sparked by the death of a pro-market, pro-democracy, and anti-corruption official, Hu Yaobang, whom protesters wanted to mourn.

The movement lasted seven weeks, from Hu's death on 15 April until tanks cleared Tiananmen Square on 4 June. In Beijing, the resulting military response to the protesters by the PRC government left many civilians dead or severely injured.


*****


It is easy for us to develop in more economic advanced countries, adopt and enforce the best way we can such concepts as “Human Rights” and so on…but it is another story in many parts of the world were for many reasons the reality of daily life is different and this concept is irrelevant such as in many countries of Africa, in India, and in China.

The concept of humanity goes down the toilet as a direct result of overpopulation.
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Human Rights, Freedom of Expression, Cultural integrity & respect, Acceptance of Individualism
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 17, 2009

These key concepts – intrinsic, irrefutable entitlements to one’s underlying Humanity - should scarcely be equated with “negotiable commodities”, or tools designed for the manipulation of clever statistical data in order to justify ones principles or objectives; for freedom and individualism will never be disposable apparatuses or gambling chips to be utilized in exchange for economic stability….

Honorable India, despite the malevolent persistence of widespread poverty within its socio-economic fabric, has been gradually attaining the very progress & advancement you seek; yet one praises its respect for cultural diversity, personal liberty, political self-determination, and the rule of law…

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...
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 17, 2009

Give me hardship, deprivation, and famine but take NOT way my right for self-determination and priceless liberty of choice!

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RA
written by Forrest Allen Brown, July 17, 2009

By 2020 china will have over 10 million more men than women in there country .
this is by there own deign never in the history of the world did a country that had a over abundance of men not go to war .

while the US has 5 million more women that men , and brasil has 7 million more women than men .

china could have a million man ocupational army in country and not even miss them , china could just breed the brasilian out of brasil in a 40 year pireod , it has been done in the past .

brasil should load up all the women in the prisons and send them to china as a piece offering , next get the loose women off the beaches .

and the next time a brasilian takes a chinese mans child back to beasil and dies and brasil keeps it you will see there charm and hospility

...
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 17, 2009

Give me hardship, deprivation, and famine but take NOT way my right for self-determination and priceless liberty of choice!

that says it for me also

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get the loose woman off the beach ...? now just hold on here, not so fast!
written by asp, July 17, 2009

common forest, lets not go overboard with those kind of solutions...even sarcasticly...

lets not take all the fun out of mundane plane existance

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asp
written by João da Silva, July 17, 2009

get the loose woman off the beach ...? now just hold on here, not so fast!

Do you think Forrest is about to take over the Vatican and proclaim himself as the new Pope?

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Reply to Forrest Allen Brown
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 18, 2009

The above information that you mentioned is incorrect about the population of China and also of Brazil.

I don’t know where you got your information regarding the populations of both countries and the gender distribution of the Chinese population.

Anyway, in 2009 it is estimated that there are 39 million more males than females in China. But on the age group of 15-64 years old China has 27 million more males than females.

Note: To put things in perspective regarding the extra male population in China:

1) The entire population of Canada is: 33,487,208 (July 2009 est.)

2) Brazilian population: 198,739,269 (July 2009 est.)

By Gender:

Male: 98 million
Female: 101 million

But on the age group of 15-64 years old Brazil has only 1 million more females than males.

You are also misinformed about the size of the prison population in Brazil.

Today, Brazil has only an estimated 250 thousand people in prison in Brazil, including males, and females – compared with the United States that has over 2.2 million people in prison.


*****


China:

Population: 1,338,612,968 (July 2009 est.)


Age structure:

0-14 years: 19.8% (male 140,877,745/female 124,290,090)
15-64 years: 72.1% (male 495,724,889/female 469,182,087)
65 years and over: 8.1% (male 51,774,115/female 56,764,042) (2009 est.)


By Gender:

Male: 689 million
Female: 650 million

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/CH.html

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Ambassadeur Extraordinaire de la Republique Populaire?
written by Epsilon Eridani, July 18, 2009

On dirait que notre illustre auteur Bresilien represente les affaires Chinois aupres du Bresil!
It would appear that prominet Brazilien author acts on behalf of Chinese interests in Brazil!

Undoubtedly the overwhelming amount of concern about third party impressions, knowledge about the economy, , and time spent defending anything Chinese, or opinions expressed about its "almighty" power is beginning to appear somewhat peculiar...

Hmmm....

For some reason, one suddenly recalled a rather amusing statement made about Richard Nixon - who by the way should undeoubtedly represent our dear author's favorite American former president, in light of his Historic "first visit to the Great Wall" in the 1970's - yet, one digresses, returning to the "amusing comment":
IF IT WALKS LIKE A DUCK...
IF IT QUACKS LIKE A DUCK...
IF IT LOOKS LIKE A DUCK...
it must be a... DUCK!!!!!

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Ricardo C. Amaral
written by Tom Lloyds, July 20, 2009

After reading Ricardo’s post, I find that he messes up all the issues because he cannot understand the basic.

1.The Chinese is really smart by proposing the SDR as the New International Currency. SDR represents a basket of major currencies and is partially back up by the gold reserve in IMF. Yes, in the past, it was hardly a currency but the Chinese is proposing it as the New International Currency. It is a NEW concept rather than a concept of yesterday as Ricardo claims. SDR now has US dollar as a major portion of the currency basket but in the future this composition will change according to the economic performance of its member countries. Therefore, this New International Currency can be used as the new reserve currency, and can preserve wealth. It cannot be controlled by any single country as well as any single region, for example, by Asia if the world uses this so-called New Asian Currency as the reserve currency.
2.Chinese is facing the demise of US dollar because of its reserve is mainly in US dollar. This problem is being solved by adapting SDR as its reserve. However, surrendering its monetary authority to Japan and Brazil by adapting this New Asian Currency can hardly be a solution to this problem. The world is looking for some kind of currency, which can preserve wealth. It must be independent of any country and region. Now Asia is doing well. What happens if Asia collapses but USA survives, and becomes rich twenty years later? Ricardo will jump out from his comfortable home in USA and asks Brazil to adapt the New American Currency.
3.Euro was introduced after the European feels the need to integrate Europe. It is the outcome after the operation of European Community which evolutes to be the EU. Asia is in a completely different situation. The serious corruption in some of the Asian countries which Ricardo mentions can hardly to bring the Asian countries together as the Asian Union at least today. A common currency must be back up as common political vision. I would say that Ricardo couldn’t understand this.
4.The New Asian Currency was first mentioned in US newspaper as proposed by USA, and Japan said that it was a good idea as reported on the newspaper. It is interested in observing that Japan seldom mention this New Asian Currency any more after the news. Why is its? Ricardo, can you think about this?
5.I still do not understand why the Chinese should invite or approve Brazil to adapt this New Asian Currency if it exists. The price of oil is so high nowadays and will be higher in the future. It is much expensive to ship one ton of iron ore from Brazil than from Australia. The trading between China and Brazil is less important between China and Australia for the Chinese. Ricardo did not even mention Australia is a good candidate for this New Asian Currency. Why? Are you afraid of your competitor?
6.I feel sick when he posts on Brazil magazine that human right goes to the toilet if there is a high density of people. It leads me to think that Ricardo may suggest that Chinese does not deserve human right because there is too many Chinese.

In the past, Ricardo has proposed the followings: Nationalization of foreign investment in Brazil, Building a nuclear bomb in Brazil, Adoption of Euro as Brazil’s currency (Now, it is the New Asian Currency)… We can know how he thinks.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 20, 2009

For some reason you never understand what you read, anyway here is some reminder from one of my above postings.

Here is again the information from the IMF:

“The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement the existing official reserves of member countries. SDRs are allocated to member countries in proportion to their IMF quotas. The SDR also serves as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations. Its value is based on a basket of key international currencies.

…The SDR is neither a currency, nor a claim on the IMF. Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members.

…No new SDRs had been created between 1981 and the 2008 banking crisis: Only 21.4 billion of them currently exist (equal in value to $31.9 billion) On 2 April 2009, the G-20 authorized the IMF to issue $250 billion in new SDRs to augment the foreign reserves of IMF members and quickly channel resources into emerging economies. Increases in the reserves of some emerging economies will be substantial i.e. South Korea’s will grow by $3.4 billion, India’s by $4.8 billion, Brazil’s by $3.5 billion, Russia’s by $6.9 billion and China’s by $7.3 billion.”


*****


Today China almost can be considered a subsidiary of the United States government with its $ 2 trillion dollar assets and growing by leaps and bounds – growing by almost $ 400 billion dollars per year.

Today, the world movement of money is in the trillions of US dollars per day. China’s assets in US dollars is growing by almost $ 400 billion dollars per year – The IMF has created a total of $ 282 billion dollars in SDR’s including the recent increase in the supply of SDR’s.

The IMF site says: “On 2 April 2009, the G-20 authorized the IMF to issue $250 billion in new SDRs to augment the foreign reserves of IMF members and quickly channel resources into emerging economies. Increases in the reserves of some emerging economies will be substantial i.e. …and China’s by $7.3 billion.


*****


O.K. – out of the $ 400 billion dollars that China is going to receive in the coming year China will be able to buy $ 7 billion in SDR’s….

Big Deal.

And so what?

What China is going to do with the other $ 393 billion that China will earn in US dollar? Add to the pile of cofetti that China already has?

Why do you want China to continue to be subservient to the US dollar?

Tom Lloyds also said: “5) I still do not understand why the Chinese should invite or approve Brazil to adopt this New Asian Currency if it exists.”

The Chinese adopted the US dollar indirectly and without an invitation from the US government or their approval for that matter. Today the printing machines are working overtime in Washington D.C. and at the same time the Chinese government is accumulating the declining US dollar by the ton.

And you think that is smart policy.

I know the Chinese government also invested in a bunch of US private companies such as the Blackstone group and many others – and the Chinese government has massive losses in the billions of US dollars to prove it.


*****


Tom Lloyds said: “I feel sick when he posts on Brazil magazine that human right goes to the toilet if there is a high density of people.”

Ricardo: Get over since that is a fact of life in countries with large populations and scarce resources such as in India, China, and most of Africa.

And human rights have nothing to do with the type of government that you have since India is supposed to be the largest democracy in the world and human life is treated just like garbage on the streets of Calcutta.

Why do you think that there are no human rights in most countries of Africa? Population explosion is at the root of the problem – at the end the day human beings lose its value and its humanity when there is an oversupply in any place.

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...
written by Tom Lloyds, July 21, 2009

Ricardo, your reply shows that you cannot think.

Yes, in the past, IMF has not issued a lot of SDR and SDR was not a currency. You are still pushing the monetary policy of the past. I know all of this. You do not need to repeat it again. What the Chinese is doing is to create a new international monetary policy for the future, a new international currency which represent the aggregated mean of major currencies. Why do you think that the world cannot issue more SDR once the international community agrees that SDR is the world’s reserve currency? This new currency can preserve wealth and cannot be controlled by a single country or region such as Asia. The current SDR only provides a platform and structure. A new global monetary system will be imposed once it is a recognized international currency.

Your reply on human right is terrible! You cannot distinguish the difference between one does not have human right and one’s human right has been violated. The difference is obvious to me. It is good that you show your true face to the Chinese people!
You have not replied my questions. Is it because you cannot answer or are afraid to answer? I repeat my questions as the followings:

1.Why does Japan seldom mention this New Asian Currency any more after the news?
2.Why didn’t you include Australia as a candidate for your New Asian Currency? Why should the Chinese choose Brazil instead of Australia?
3.What happens if Asia collapses but USA survives, and becomes rich twenty years later? Will you jump out from his comfortable home in USA and asks Brazil to adopt the New American Currency.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 21, 2009

You are back on the subject of SDR's.

I don’t know why I am wasting my time in answering your question, since the SDR subject right now is frozen on your brain, and I know it is not going to go away it does not matter what?

The SDR’s have been around since 1969, and its usefulness has been shown to be very limited since that time. If the SDR was a great solution for countries to pile up it as its foreign exchange reserves, then by now we would have trillions and trillions of SDR’s being held on the books of central bankers from around the world.

I am aware that it does not matter what I say, and I could even write an encyclopedia on the subject, and at the end you still would not grasp the essence of the material to save your life.

The reason you still harping about SDR’s is because you have not grasped even the basics why I am suggesting the creation of the New Asian Currency?

You are not smart enough to grasp that by starting buying the SDR’s from the IMF you are doing nothing to change the current system – By the way, China does not need the IMF to buy a basket of currencies to hold as its foreign exchange reserves.

You don’t have the brain power to grasp this concept – but the New Asian Currency, or the euro for that matter, serves as a umbrella to protect the member countries that are protected by this umbrella from major currency swings that can destroy the economies of countries almost overnight – at the speed of light as the hot money moves from country to country trying to get the best returns and they move forward to the next opportunity.

You can’t grasp that there are trillions of US dollars that fly around the world every day at the speed of light to settle all kinds of transactions. And that most countries are vulnerable with their small foreign exchange reserves supply to fight a foreign attack against its local currency.

Look back to the late 1990’s, IMF reports were saying how sound the Asian economies of such countries as Indonesia, South Korea, and so on were at the time, and right after that the currency speculators created a major currency crisis in the area of the world destroying the economy of many of these countries almost overnight.

That would not have happen if all these countries were protected under an umbrella similar to the euro – the speculators can’t play their games with a currency such as the euro as they can with the local currencies of countries such as South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, India, Russia, Argentina, and Brazil.

The fact that some high officials of China’s government are coming up lately with the solution for their international foreign exchange reserves problem - to replace their US dollar reserves with SDR’s is just showing to the world how naïve they are in international monetary issues and nothing else.

Less than 2 years ago the IMF was ready to go out of business, after Brazil, Argentina and a few other countries paid their debt to the IMF and the IMF became almost overnight a purposeless organization.

Over the years most countries hated when they had to borrow money from the IMF with all the strings attached that created a lot o problems to these countries at home. Countries from Africa, to South America they all had one thing in common its bad experiences under the policies imposed by the IMF when they had to borrow from that institution.

What I am saying here is that most countries that have had experience with the IMF in the past want to stay away from the IMF any way they can in the future.

The IMF and SDR’s is a solution that only a naïve country such as China would come up with – the rest of the countries that had experiences with the IMF are looking to China and laughing about their lack of experience in the international business in dealing with the IMF, and what the IMF means to most countries that had dealings over the years with that organization.

I could go on and on regarding all the other reasons that buying SDR’s would not address that the New Asian Currency would, related to the economies that would adopt such a currency.

At the end of the day the SDR solution it is not a solution at wall. I don’t even understand why China is wasting time even talking about it since just make their monetary leaders look naïve and foolish?

But they already look foolish with all the investments that they have made in the United States in the last few years in the private sector that has gone sour to the tune of billions of US dollars in investment losses. And they don’t need this talk of investing in SDR’s to look even more foolish and naïve.
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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 21, 2009

If you and to talk about human rights in theory, then you can read about it at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E...ral_rights

http://www.iep.utm.edu/h/hum-rts.htm

The real world

But if you want to understand what happens to human rights in real life when you have massive overpopulation, and two countries comes to mind China and India – it does not matter what kind of government system you have, for example India is the largest democracy in the world, and you don’t need to look any further than what happens to people under overpopulation conditions to see how the massive poverty results in large parts of the population losing its humanity, and becoming worthless in the eyes of society as is the case of millions of people who live in the slums of Calcutta, India.

The truth is there are only so much scarce resources to go around and under overpopulation conditions millions of people just fall through the cracks – and the reality is that most of its human rights also fall through the cracks with these destitute people.


*****


Tom Lloyds you said: “1) Why does Japan seldom mention this New Asian Currency any more after the news?


*****


Ricardo: Japan has less than half the US dollar assets that China has today. And the diversification problem is a lot more urgent for China, since they are accumulating US dollar assets at a rate as if they want to takeover the entire United States economy in the future.


*****


Tom Lloyds you said: “2) Why didn’t you include Australia as a candidate for your New Asian Currency? Why should the Chinese choose Brazil instead of Australia?


*****


Ricardo: Your questions are very childish anyway, and I am not going to cover every country in the planet, and tell you which currency each country should adopt in the future under the new monetary system of the 21st century.

Australia is a country almost as large as Brazil, but Australia has a population of 21,262,641 people (July 2009 est.) – about the same population as the population of a city such as Sao Paulo in Brazil.

In Brazil we have one city with as much population than the entire country of Australia.

Australia’s GDP (purchasing power parity) = $800.5 billion (2008 est.)

Australia’s GDP (official exchange rate) = $1.069 trillion (2008 est.)

Australia’s:
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold = US$25 billion (31 December 2008 est.)

Brazil’s foreign exchange reserves = US$ 210 billion (as of July 2009)

I left out of my commentaries many countries that might want to become also part of the new Asian monetary system. Every country has to evaluate its position and what would be in the best interest of each country for the long-term.

It does make sense for Australia to adopt the New Asian Currency. Australia would be a good candidate to be a member of the New Asian Currency, but the Australian people are the ones who should decide if they want to belong to such an international currency arrangement.

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Ricardo C. Amaral
written by Tom Lloyds, July 22, 2009

From your reply, I confirm that you cannot think. Do you think that IMF will be the world’s central bank after the world adopts SDR as the world’s reserve currency? Most likely, not! There may be a new organization. Therefore, your repeated answers on the problem of IMF are irrelevant.

Chinese is only using the structure of SDR to promote their concept of using a basket of currencies as a new world reserve currency. This can solve the problem ultimately. I have asked you whether you will jump out from your comfortable home in USA to urge Brazil to adopt the New American Currency if Asia collapses. You have not replied. It is an important question. Now Asia is doing well. No one can guarantee that Asia can do well forever. If the world adopts this New Asian Currency as its reserve currency, it may happen that the same problem of US dollar may arise twenty years, fifty years, one hundred years … later. After one hundred years, we cannot expect that you will jump out of your coffer to teach Brazilian what to do. The Chinese solution is to solve this problem forever…., a new global monetary currency independent of any single country or region.


China does need SDR rather than a basket of currencies to store its wealth. The problem of basket of currencies is the cost to balance the portfolio of the basket. Given the huge wealth the Chinese has, the impact on the currency exchange market is enormous when Chinese buys or sells one currency. The world cannot afford the impact. If it is SDR, one can only adjust the composition in one unit of SDR. The value of SDR will be kept constant even though one currency in the SDR falls. This is a new global monetary system.

Your answer on Japan proves that you twist the facts! Japan was once the largest US treasury holder decades ago and now is only second to China in total. However, the amount of US treasury per Japanese is much much larger than that per Chinese. This is also a serious problem to Japan. I can tell you why Japan seldom mentions New Asian Currency (NAC) again because NAC sucks!

Your answer on human right just repeats what you have posted. It is a waste of resources. You imply that the density of Chinese is so high and thus Chinese cannot have human right. It is clear to me as you have repeated your answer for several times. It is an insult to Chinese! Chinese should be careful your motive. You cannot even distinguish the difference between these two statements; “One cannot have or does not deserve to have human right”, and “Ones human right is violated”. Think about the difference. It does require an IQ of 150 to figure out the difference.

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...
written by Tom Lloyds, July 22, 2009

Ricardo:

An additional comment: You do not need to emphasize that Chinese has lost a lot of money in their US private investment. You imply that Chinese is not a smart investor. Even the best investor, Warren Buffet sometimes lose. If you look careful to the wealth that the Chinese has accumulated in this decade through investment, I hope that your IQ can allow you to observe that Chinese is excellent in investment!

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Reply to Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 22, 2009

Hurts trying to having an intelligent discussion with you.

Now that I demonstrated to you that it is not going to happen this SDR basket of currencies that naive China want to turn into the New World Currency - now in your silly mind you are already dreaming that China is going to create a new international monetary fund just to manage a basket of currencies that already exists.

You are Pathetic.

Your statement that "The Chinese solution is to solve this problem forever…." - shows how limited is your intellectual capabilities.

Only someone very foolish and ignorant would make a statement like that.

We have no way of knowing today, what the world of 50 years from now is going to look like.

Your statement is Pathetic.

I am not going to convince you about anything regarding SDR's - you are getting so silly that you are already creating a new institution to do the job that the IMF is doing.

After I told you that the experiences that most countries that were in trouble and had to deal with the IMF in the last 40 years were similar to a person going to a dentist and having a root canal work done without any anesthesia - and who on his right mind would enjoy such an experience - you realized that China turning SDR's into a world currency was an idea that is not going to happen.

Yes, China has many investments here in the US that made front page news
in the billions of US dollars and just 2 years later China had lost 2/3 of the value of these investment.

It is a fact....

But the old pros from Wall Street were very happy in taking China for a ride. A very public ride for the entire world to see it.

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Ricardo C. Amaral
written by Tom Lloyds, July 22, 2009

Yes, quite a lot of unsuccessful Chinese investment was reported on the front page but quite a lot of successful Chinese investment was NOT even mentioned. I only look at the end result. As you have noticed, Chinese is quite wealthy. You are looking a way to share the Chinese wealth through the New Asian Currency. Chinese is wealthy because they are excellent investors. Even Warren Buffet sometimes lose. Can you forgive the Chinese for losing a tiny portion of their fortune to Wall Street recently?

Even the world adopt the New Asian Currency (NAC) as its reserve currency, no one can guarantee that Asia will not turn on the printing machine to devalue the NAC. Eurozone did not turn the printing machine recently just because Germany preferred not to but it was a card on the table. Eurozone can turn on their machine if they wanted.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 23, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: “Eurozone did not turn the printing machine recently just because Germany preferred not to but it was a card on the table. Eurozone can turn on their machine if they wanted.”

Ricardo: The Germans have a very strong voice related to the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) – and the Germans know from prior experience what happens to a currency when a country starts printing money like there is no tomorrow; the German experience of the 1920’s with hyperinflation still fresh on the German’s policy makers minds.

On the other hand the US government policies regarding the value of the US dollar has been irresponsible for many years.

When the Asian countries get their act together, and create the new currency arrangement the New Asian Currency including at least the countries that I mentioned, I can see the new Asian central bank, a new institution similar to the European central bank, to adopt conservative policies similar to the European central bank. The members central bankers who would be making policies for this new currency such as China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brazil to just mention a few names – many of these countries became very conservative on their monetary policies because the experiences that they have had in the past with massive monetary crisis that almost destroyed the economies of these countries.

I am sure that the new Central Bank of the New Asian Currency would adopt conservative policies to protect the value of the New Asian Currency, and also give protection under its umbrella to the economies of the countries that belong to this new monetary arrangement.

Today, you don’t need to look any further than California, to understand what kind of protection that I am talking about that the monetary umbrella can provide to the members of this new monetary arrangement. If California were not under the umbrella of the US dollar today, then the economy of California (the 8th largest economy in the world) would be collapsing with run on its banks, a melting local currency, a total economic meltdown similar to the one we had in Argentina a few years ago.

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Reply to all the readers of the above article.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 23, 2009

In the last 10 years, I have been writing articles about Brazil adopting a new currency, first I suggested the euro, and in the last four years, I have been suggesting the New Asian Currency.

I wrote many articles over the years on that subject, and I was involved in many debates with the readers about these articles, including the above article.

But I am surprised that over all these years not a single person ever asked me one question: Why did I become interested on this subject and started writing about it?

It was from direct practical experience of many years working in international trade, and also noticing over the years that it did not matter that countries were following sound economic development policies – when a country has the protection of just its local currency and the foreign exchange reserves of its central bank, their currency can be destabilized very easily, and the economy of that country can melt overnight under a massive currency crisis as it was the case with various Asian countries in the 1990’s, and also with Brazil.

I remember seeing programs on television here in the US showcasing a Brazilian company how they were in the leading edge of technology, and excellent management team, and the company was growing and had an outstanding future ahead for that company – and just about 2 or 3 years later the company was driven out of business.

What happened here?

The company was growing, and was doing very well, and they had financed its new growth with money borrowed in US dollar, then the Brazilian currency had a major devaluation, and the liability in US dollar became a company killer. The foreign exchange rate between the US dollar and the Brazilian currency killed not only that company, but also created havoc in many other similar cases in Brazil.

That company had great technology, know how, and an outstanding team of employees, and foreign exchange rate fluctuation killed that business. That would have not happened if that company belonged to a currency such as the euro, the US dollar, or even the New Asian Currency for that matter – if that company had the option to make that long-term investment in that umbrella currency then they would not have to worry about being destroyed by major foreign exchange fluctuations regarding that long-term investments, and they probably would still be alive today on their path to prosperity.

Over the years we lost many opportunities of doing business, because of the exchange risk of doing any business in the Brazilian local currency, and most of the business had to be done in US dollar.

If Brazil had adopted the euro, or the New Asian Currency for that matter – many of these transactions would have happened, because of the currency protection that a country has when they are under the umbrella of a mega currency.

The adoption of a New Asian Currency would extend that currency protection to all the members that belong to that currency arrangement including China, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, India, and Brazil.

If you eliminate the foreign exchange risk among the members of the new currency arrangement then how do you price risk among the member countries?

That is where the level of interest rate comes into play, to price the relative risk regarding to long-term investments in any country or project under the umbrella.

When your country has adopted this new currency, then it becomes easier to make long-term investments in local currency (in the new mega currency) since you don’t have to worry about potential losses related to foreign currency fluctuations – you have eliminated the foreign exchange risk.

I am sure that the international financial meltdown that we had in 2008 would have been a lot more severe to the individual countries that makes the European Monetary Union – the countries that are under the umbrella and protection of the euro.

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Ricardo C. Amaral
written by Tom Lloyds, July 24, 2009

Ricardo:” The company was growing, and was doing very well, and they had financed its new growth with money borrowed in US dollar, then the Brazilian currency had a major devaluation, and the liability in US dollar became a company killer. The foreign exchange rate between the US dollar and the Brazilian currency killed not only that company, but also created havoc in many other similar cases in Brazil.

That company had great technology, know how, and an outstanding team of employees, and foreign exchange rate fluctuation killed that business.”

Tom: Exchange rate fluctuation cannot kill a business. It is currency devaluation which kills. Why does a company borrow US dollar? It is because the interest rate of Real is so high while that of US dollar is low. It is a kind of carry trade. The company wished to pay less interest and was willing to carry the risk of exchange rate “devaluation”. It was greedy! This kind of risk could be easily transferred to Wall Street by hedging using future contract but this company wished to save the money on the future. So, if a company could not even to manage this simple exchange risk and fell, it was good and should be! They were just as greedy as Wall Street.

They could borrow in Real and exchange to US dollar but…. They did not want to pay for the high interest rate.

The problem of devaluation of Real can be simply solved by pegging the Real against the dollar at fixed exchange rate. Then there will be no currency exchange rate problems for all the Brazilian. However, it does not work because as the economy decays, this pegging mechanism will impose serious stress on the economy like inflation. Therefore, Brazil un-pegged the dollar pegging mechanism. Hong Kong has no problem because Hong Kong is wealthy. Adopting this New Asian Currency as Brazilian currency is very similar to the mechanism of pegging the Brazilian currency to the New Asian Currency (NAC) but with one difference. It is Brazil can easily move the wealth from the hard working Chinese, and Asian to Brazil through that New Asian Currency.

I have read quite a lot of your articles. I have only one conclusion---- You are selfish. You promoted nationalization of foreign investment in Brazil while at the same time, telling Chinese to invest in Brazil. It may be good for Brazil to adopt the NAC but why should the Chinese approve Brazil to adopt NAC? You have not explained any benefit to the Chinese, who are your future boss. It you are sure that Brazil’s economy is and will be sound, Real will not devalue. It seems that you are not confident. I have asked you so many times. What is special about Brazil which deserves Chinese’s special care?

You may answer that Chinese is not smart to put their money in US dollar… Wow, Wow Wow…. Ba… Ba.. Ba… You work and live in US. I suppose that you are paid in US dollar. I bet that most of your asset is in US dollar unless you have a bank account in Switzerland or other countries to pack your asset in New Asian Currency. It seems that you have not lost your faith in US dollar otherwise you will pack and live in Asia like Jim Rogers. Jim is the guy who I respect because he does what he says and means although he may not be always right.

Furthermore, your attitude on human right is really sick. There is no problem to treat human beings in high-density area like monkey. I do not know how the Chinese people feels when they read your comments.

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Reply to Ricardo
written by Tom Lloyds, July 24, 2009

Ricardo:"The Germans have a very strong voice related to the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) – and the Germans know from prior experience what happens to a currency when a country starts printing money like there is no tomorrow; the German experience of the 1920’s with hyperinflation still fresh on the German’s policy makers minds."

Tom: You are completely wrong! German did not allow ECB to turn on the printing machine only because it was not necessary this time. It was necessary, they would. It shows that the ECB monetary mechanism is determined by one single strong country. It makes not much difference form a single country currency.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amarl, July 24, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: “Exchange rate fluctuation cannot kill a business. It is currency devaluation which kills. Why does a company borrow US dollar?”

***

Ricardo: Your entire statement shows that you are completely unaware of what was happening economically in Brazil in the 1980’s, and in the 1990’s until Brazil changed its currency to the Real.

***

Tom Lloyds said: “The problem of devaluation of Real can be simply solved by pegging the Real against the dollar at fixed exchange rate. Then there will be no currency exchange rate problems for all the Brazilian…”

***

Ricardo: It seems to me that you also don’t have a clue about what happened to the Argentinean economy in the 1990’s and in the early 2000’s. Otherwise you would not mention such a solution.

Your statements also show that you have not grasped the difference between a country using a pegging mechanism to a mega currency such as the US dollar (as was the case with Argentina), and a country which traded their currency for a mega currency such as the euro (which has been the case with many countries such as: Germany, France, Belgium, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Finland, Austria, Portugal, and Greece.)

You also list Hong Kong as a success story for a country using the pegging mechanism to a mega currency, you said: “Hong Kong has no problem because Hong Kong is wealthy.”

I have news for you. If California – also a very wealthy economy – were not under the umbrella of a mega currency, (in this case the US dollar) then today the California economy would be collapsing completely, with run on its banks, and a melting economy just like in Argentina a few years ago.

In the 1990’s the United States used all the time the Argentinean economy as a symbol of a country that were doing everything right economically according to Washington’s version of a capitalist system and free market thinking.

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Tom Lloyds said: “It is Brazil can easily move the wealth from the hard working Chinese, and Asian to Brazil through that New Asian Currency.”

***

Ricardo: This is a very ignorant and silly statement to make mainly when you take in consideration what has been going on between China and the United States.

You feel like that because the Chinese have been pilling up US dollars by the trillions – US dollars that they have been accumulating because of its massive volume of international trade with the United States. The Chinese have been giving its wealth away – the goods produced by its hard working people with very low wages and no benefits (I would say using an economic system similar to a modern adaptation of a slavery system), and in return the Chinese are getting paid in US dollar that will greatly be depreciated in the coming years. The Chinese have been giving away valuable assets all these years – its produced goods – in exchange for a depreciating commodity – the US dollar.

And that is what you are afraid that is going to happen in the future between Brazil and China. If what has been happening for many years between China and the United States is not a major transfer of wealth, then you tell me what transfer of wealth means.

China is already holding over $ 2 trillion dollars in US dollar assets, and this US dollars accumulation is growing exponentially, and very quickly they will reach $ 3, $4, and $ 5 trillion US dollars – basically a massive accumulation of confetti.

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Tom Lloyds said: “You promoted nationalization of foreign investment in Brazil while at the same time, telling Chinese to invest in Brazil. It may be good for Brazil to adopt the NAC but why should the Chinese approve Brazil to adopt NAC? You have not explained any benefit to the Chinese, who are your future boss. It you are sure that Brazil’s economy is and will be sound, Real will not devalue. It seems that you are not confident. I have asked you so many times. What is special about Brazil which deserves Chinese’s special care?”

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amarl, July 24, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: “You promoted nationalization of foreign investment in Brazil while at the same time, telling Chinese to invest in Brazil. It may be good for Brazil to adopt the NAC but why should the Chinese approve Brazil to adopt NAC? You have not explained any benefit to the Chinese, who are your future boss. It you are sure that Brazil’s economy is and will be sound, Real will not devalue. It seems that you are not confident. I have asked you so many times. What is special about Brazil which deserves Chinese’s special care?”

***

Ricardo: You are a smart ass with your silly comments.

China will not become the future boss of Brazil as you said. It will be an equal partnership, based on equal respect for each other.

You comments shows that you have a very hard time grasping a lot of concepts, and most of the time you comments also shows that your mindset is frozen in the past, and you have no idea that the world is being transformed as never before. You think the world of tomorrow is going to be just the same as the world of yesterday.

You said: “You have not explained any benefit to the Chinese…What is special about Brazil which deserves Chinese’s special care?”

I don’t expect you to grasp what is the essence of this article, but if you read carefully one more time the article - "The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil" – you might find your answer on that article, as follows:

Brazzil Magazine - October 2007
"The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil" Written by Ricardo C. Amaral

...The final conclusion is: It's imperative that China move forward in an aggressive fashion and implement with Brazil the plan described in this four-part series of articles. And China should look at it as a matter of national security and future survival.

Monday, 01 October 2007 - Part 1 of 4
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9977.html

Friday, 05 October 2007 - Part 2 of 4
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9979.html

Thursday, 11 October 2007 - Part 3 of 4
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9983.html

Tuesday, 16 October 2007 - Part 4 of 4
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9985.html


In a Nutshell: The Chinese have the choice in the future of getting a stable and plentiful foodstuff supply from Brazil to feed its very large population according to the plan that I described on my article, or they can feed them in the future the massive supply of confetti that China has been accumulating for many years and will continue to grow sky high in the future.

In my opinion, the foodstuff from Brazil is tastier and more nourishing than confetti.

And that is were the equal partner and mutual respect comes into play – without food to feed its massive population China will end up with a nasty civil war, and a complete breakdown of the country – since feeding the population confetti is not a good choice.

And don’t forget in the future that Brazil is the country with an outstanding supply of food, and China, on the other hand, is the country with the largest number of human beings that needs to be fed.

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Tom Lloyds said: “It you are sure that Brazil’s economy is and will be sound, Real will not devalue. It seems that you are not confident.”

***

Ricardo: Hello is anybody home?

I have been writing many articles for the last 10 years about Brazil adopting first the euro, and now the New Asian Currency. And you claim that you read some of the article. I guess the subject matter of all these articles is above you head for you to be able to grasp it.

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Tom Lloyds said: “You are completely wrong! German did not allow ECB to turn on the printing machine only because it was not necessary this time. It was necessary, they would. It shows that the ECB monetary mechanism is determined by one single strong country. It makes not much difference form a single country currency.”

***

Ricardo: The (ECB) policies are decided by its board, which includes a strong conservative German influence. But that influence can be achieved only because the other members of the board and the rest of the global central bank community for that matter also have a lot of respect for the German leadership.

The perception that other people have is an important factor in playing the mega currency central bank game.

A little currency can be cornered and can be impacted in world markets even by a single speculator – and in that regard George Soros name comes to mind.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 24, 2009

I want to clarify one point even further to you - and you should keep it in mind when you make your future comments regarding Brazil.

When a country is improving its economic situation, it is just natural for people to want to have more children as part of their new and prosperous life style, and also to upgrade their daily food diet.

That means that in no time China’s population is going to increase even further and possibly pass the 1.5 billion people, and in turn China’s demand for scarce foodstuff will grow even more.

In the future China is going to need the Brazilian food resources a lot more than Brazil will need anything from China.

Brazil will not have a problem finding other customers around the world to buy the extra supply of foodstuff produced in Brazil, but China will have a major problem finding new sources of foodstuff supply around the world to meet the demands for extra foodstuff for its increasing population.

The food supply problem in China it will be even more dramatic in the future than most people have realized, because as the Chinese economy develops further, this economic development will replace a lot of productive land that China has today with concrete for all kinds of consumer and manufacturing needs, and a massive superhighways system as the automobile industry grows in China.

You can bet that massive population growth in the coming years combined with a declining food supply – that can be a recipe and can result in catastrophic trouble in the future, might be the path to even a nasty civil war.

As you can see a massive population – “OVERPOPULATION” – can be a major drawback, and can become the “Achilles Heel" for a country that has aspirations to become a major superpower.

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Reply to Ricardo
written by Tom Lloyds, July 25, 2009

Your replies to my comments are mostly nonsense. It does not deserve my replies. However, I must point out the following and ask the Chinese to pay attention of your intention.

You think that when a country is improving its economic situation, it is just natural for people to want to have more children as part of their new and prosperous life style, and also to upgrade their daily food diet. It is wrong! Industrialization will cause people have less children. Singapore government needs to pay its citizens to produce some babies. Japan is worrying not having enough young people. In fact, I will expect Chinese population will decrease once China is industrialized. It is true that people will like to eat better. It can be solved by producing better food.

You are native that China’s national security can reply on the supply of food from Brazil. It is nonsense! China’s national security replies on food self-sufficiency. Never let any foreign country to control its food supply chain!

Industrialization will not necessarily decease agriculture production. It all depends on government policy. Japan is a small country in land size and Taiwan is only a small island. Taiwan and Japan both restrict food import, both have gone through a period of industrialization. Because of the policy of food import restriction, both of them can preserve their agricultural industry and be food sufficient. They do not let the cheap food import to push down the food price and so it can continue to attract people to farm. It is ultimately important for the Chinese to preserve their own agricultural industry.

The problem can be solved by improving agricultural technology. I would suggest the Chinese to do the followings;

1.To impose heavy import duty on food import from Brazil to protect their farmers.
2.To restrict investment in Brazil to avoid the risk of nationalization as proposed by Ricardo.
3.The money which is intended to be invested in Brazil should be invested in China to develop agricultural technology. Then export the agricultural technology to Brazil to earn their money. Brazilian uses better Chinese technology to produce more food to push down the food price (over supply). Chinese controls the technology! By using the new technology, China is food self-sufficient by itself.
4.Never let Brazil to adopt the New Asian Currency or Yuan as their currency such that more Brazilian companies will fail. It will create more jobless Brazilian. As the supply of manpower increases, it will push down the salary and hence the cost of food production will decrease. Thus the food price will decrease. Why should the Chinese be bothered to save some Brazilian companies by letting Brazil to adopt Yuan.

Lastly, the size of China is huge. In the coming several decades, China will be the world’s largest economy. It will bigger than today’s US economy. Of this large economical size, I do not think that China needs this New Asian Currency to stable their currency. Brazil may need NAC.

From what you have written, it is clear to me that you wish Brazil to control Chinese’s food supply, moving Chinese’s wealth to Brazil through this New Asian Currency, and wish Brazil to control Chinese’s monetary policy or at least have a saying.

A last point, as the price of oil going higher, country will depend more on their local food supply because of the rising transportation cost. It may become unpractical to transport a ton of grain from Brazil to China. Brazil will become an isolated country in the southern hemisphere. Therefore, it is imperative for the Chinese to implement my plan.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 25, 2009

By the way, what is your real Chinese name? Why do you use an English screen name? You are a Chinese from which country? Maybe Thailand, Singapore or even Taiwan?

The countries that you mentioned on your posting doesn’t have the “One Child Policy” that China has had for many years; a government program designed to limit population growth.

The Chinese government introduced the policy in 1979 to alleviate social, economic, and environmental problems in China. In total, the Chinese government estimates that it has three to four hundred million fewer people in 2008, with the one-child policy, than it would have had otherwise.

Chinese authorities thus consider the policy as a great success in helping to implement China's current economic growth. The reduction in the fertility rate and thus population growth has reduced the severity of problems that come with overpopulation, like epidemics, slums, overwhelmed social services (such as health, education, law enforcement), and strain on the ecosystem from abuse of fertile land and production of high volumes of waste.

The one-child policy promotes couples having only one child in rural and urban areas. Parents with multiple births aren’t given the same benefits as parents of one child. Many times the parents have to pay money to the government in order to get permission to have another child.

The policy is enforced at the provincial level through fines that are imposed based on the income of the family and other factors.

Despite this policy, there are still many citizens that continue to have more than one child.

The one child policy was designed from the outset to be a one-generation policy.

Since the introduction of the one-child policy, the fertility rate in China has fallen from over three births per woman in 1980 (already a sharp reduction from more than five births per woman in the early 1970s) to approximately 1.8 births in 2008.

In 2002, China outlawed the use of physical force to make a woman submit to an abortion or sterilization, but it is not entirely enforced. In the execution of the policy, many local governments still are demanding abortions if the pregnancy violates local regulations.

As the one-child policy begins to near its next generation, one adult child is left with having to provide support for his or her two parents and four grandparents. This leaves the older generation with more of a dependency on retirement funds or charity in order to have support. If personal savings, pensions, or state welfare should fail, then the most senior citizens would be left entirely dependent upon their very small family or neighbors for support. If a child cannot care for their parents and grandparents, or if that child cannot survive, the oldest generation could find itself destitute.


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Tom Lloyds said: “Taiwan and Japan both restrict food import,”

*****

Ricardo: The rice lobby in Japan is a very old and powerful group, and by keeping the rice farms in place that has a major impact in land prices in Japan; it keep the land price at a much higher price than if they did not have these government protection of rice producers. The policy is more related to keeping an inflated land value than their concern for a stable food supply.

Based on your posting I can see that you still have not grasped the issues regarding future global food production, and how that issue is going to affect China and its massive population.

You also said: “The problem can be solved by improving agricultural technology.”

I wonder if your plan also includes making a “new water supply on a laboratory” to use it in agriculture production.

*****

Tom Lloyds said: “Never let Brazil to adopt the New Asian Currency or Yuan as their currency such that more Brazilian companies will fail.”

*****

Ricardo: If China doesn’t have the foresight to grasp that China would be in better shape in the future by creating and adopting the “New Asian Currency’, than if China continues on its current path of massive accumulation of a declining currency such as the US dollar, then China is going to look foolish in a couple of years when it is holding trillions, and trillions of confetti.

If China thinks that it is better for China to continue being just a subsidiary of the United States – by providing hundreds of billions of US dollars to support the US government deficit spending binge, and by continuing sending the goods year after year to keep a higher standard of living in the USA – then what else can I say?

From the US perspective this is a very good arrangement, and China should continue its policy of sending the money and the goods until the day China wakes up.

As I mentioned before on my postings, Brazil adopting the Yuan in the future is not an option, because it doesn’t make any sense from the Brazilian perspective for Brazil to adopt such a strategy.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 25, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: A last point, as the price of oil going higher, country will depend more on their local food supply because of the rising transportation cost. It may become unpractical to transport a ton of grain from Brazil to China. Brazil will become an isolated country in the southern hemisphere.

*****

Ricardo: I don’t know why you can’t grasp the importance of having a freshwater supply for a country to be able to achieve its goals in foodstuff production.

The most critical resource is water, not land. Regional distribution of water resources in China does not match agricultural (irrigation) demand. While some 44% of the population and some 58% of the cultivated land are in the northern and northeastern provinces, only 14.4% of the total water resources (surface runoff and groundwater) can be found in those regions. Rivers and lakes are increasingly being polluted by the industrial and urban sectors, which increases the risk that soil on irrigated fields will be degraded and that dangerous substances (such as heavy metals) will enter the human food chain. Flood-related harvest loss is a serious threat to China's food security. Finally, in northern China there is increasing competition for scarce water resources between rapidly growing urban and industrial consumption, on the one hand, and agricultural demand, on the other.

Projects that attempt to divert water from southern rivers (such as the Yangtze) to the drought-affected North of China through canals are probably inevitable. Work on the western canal has already begun. However, these large-scale water diversion projects are extremely costly - not only in monetary terms, but also in ecological and social terms. They require high dams and water reservoirs, which may inundate huge areas of valuable cropland (such as occurred with the Three Gorges Dam project). Often large number of farmers have to be resettled in areas where the land is less fertile than in the river valleys in which they lived before.

As indicated in “State of the World, 2006” by Worldwatch Institute, China faces some of the most severe environmental challenges in the world.

• Of the 20 most-polluted cities in the world, 16 are in China.
• About 300 Chinese cities suffer from severe water shortages

It is also worth noting that, as the “factory of the world,” China processes all kinds of natural resources and then exports the products to the global market; the resultant pollution is left behind in China.

China’s water crisis

Statistics from the Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China show that China’s per capita water resources are less than 1/3 of the world’s average and that China is one of the 20 countries suffering the most from water shortage. Zhou Shengxian, Minister of Environmental Protection, said “in 2005, the urban groundwater of half of China’s cities was seriously polluted”. At least 30 percent of the freshwater from China’s seven river systems is not even fit for irrigation and 85 percent of China’s lakes have suffered eutrophic phenomena, especially algae blooms, which reduce the dissolved oxygen content and often cause the extinction of other organisms. Water pollution accounts for half of China’s annually reported pollution. Half of the water pollutants are a result of industrial activity.

Figures from both the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Ministry of Public Health indicate over 90 million people do not have access to potable water and that over 40 percent of the potable water in rural areas does not even meet basic health and hygiene guidelines.

In addition, climate change is also threatening the future of China’s freshwater supply. Greenpeace found, after three expeditions, that glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau have been retreating incredibly fast over the past 40 years. The glacier, also called the Asian Water Tower, is the source of major rivers, such as the Yangtze, the Yellow River, the Ganges, the Indus, and the Mekong. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in April, 2007, indicates that 80 percent of Himalayan glaciers will disappear in the coming 30 years, threatening the potable water supply for billions of people, in China and other Asian countries.

China’s agriculture and food supply crisis

The global grain crisis has already created turbulent situations in many countries. Many scientists and economists say that this crisis is the result of a series of elements, including climate change, rising oil prices, unfair international trade, pollution from chemical agriculture, and so on.

The most populated country in the world, China appears to have enough for now. However, over the years, the dependence on chemical agriculture has caused harm to farmland and water resources. At present, 1.33 million hectares of farmland are seriously affected by the use of pesticide and chemical fertilizer, and freshwater from the rivers is too polluted for irrigation.

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Reply to Ricardo
written by Tom Lloyds, July 27, 2009

Ricardo:

I would say that Jim Rogers deserves a lot of respect from the Chinese. Whenever he is interviewed on TV, he never forgets to urge global investors to invest in Chinese water technology companies. Everyone knows that there is a water problem in China. Jim is helping the Chinese to solve the problem by moving the world’s money to China. Chinese never says to nationalize foreign investment in China as you urged Brazil to do so. It is the correct way to solve problems. You should learn from Jim Rogers.

Jim does not like you. He does what he says and means. He sold his house in New York at the peak of the bubble because he saw no future of US dollars. He moves to Singapore because he wishes his daughters to learn Chinese. He believed that it would be the Chinese century. He opened a bank account in Switzerland for his daughters saving Swiss Franc. Smart guy! I know that you are still paid in US dollar as you are still working in USA. I suppose that you still own your house in US priced in US dollars. Unless you have a foreign bank account, I bet that most of your liquid assets are in US dollars. Therefore, you still align your future with USA. You claimed that the food in Brazil is tasty but you stay in US to eat French fries and junk food! What you say does not match with you have done.

I also know that US dollar has problems. Your solutions of New Asian Currency by no mean a solution. You claim that Euro is great according to my understanding of your posts. With all the respect, Euro is also a flaw currency but just less flaw than US dollars. Why? Quite of a lot of those small European countries in Euro zone expect Germany to pay their bonds in Euro once the bonds matures! The German says no. It may be a crisis for the Euro. Yes, the exchange rate can be fixed by controlling the money supply through ECB. If the member countries continues to borrow without limit, Euro will be in a state of overvalue. It is perfect situation for George Soros. It is the same for your New Asian Currency, NAC. You have no idea of the corruption situation in some Asian countries which you think that should be a member of NAC zone. A corrupted country will issue bonds without limit once it has a rich boss like China to back up the NAC. Will Chinese and Japanese be that stupid? Japanese never even bother to mention that NAC after that piece of news reported on New York Times. You are the only promoter.

For the Chinese, they should not be fooled! Considering the situation that Brazil and China are using the same NAC and Brazil controls China’s food supply. Whatever the Brazilian says, Chinese must listen otherwise they will cut off the supply. Brazil can demand keeping the interest rate low such that they can continue to borrow in NAC, and Chinese will pay for the bill. Now, I understand why you have spent so much time to write this kind of junk articles.

Chinese is moving in the right direction. The world needs a currency which is stable in value and is independent of any single country. SDR is a smart move. This concept will allow the Chinese to move their US asset slowly to the asset in SDR without distributing the world market.

I think that Chinese should say thank you for your concern and consideration of their food supply. With all the respect, your solution is nonsense. Water is a problem for the Chinese and they must solve it. Even with the food supplied from Brazil, without water Chinese cannot survive. So, Chinese must invest their money to solve their water problem and to improve their agricultural technology. They should not give their money to Brazil. Taiwan and Japan are small countries and are without big lakes and rivers. Both of them have gone through industrialization and they had serious pollution in the past. Both can maintain food self-sufficiency. Chinese should learn from them how to solve the problem. I believed Chinese can do as good as the Japanese and the Taiwanese.

It is native to hand over a national security to a foreign country. Food and water supplies are vital for national security. They must be solved by the Chinese people themselves, not by any foreign countries. It is important to restrict food import such that Chinese farmer can continue to farm. If the cheap food from Brazil is dumped in the Chinese market, and the Chinese farmers give up their farmland, the situation will be serious. It only encourages more pollution and lost of farmland. Chinese must understand Ricardo’s true motive. Because of this, Japan had the gut to say no to US for importing US food.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 27, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: “I would say that Jim Rogers deserves a lot of respect from the Chinese. Whenever he is interviewed on TV, he never forgets to urge global investors to invest in Chinese water technology companies. Everyone knows that there is a water problem in China. Jim is helping the Chinese to solve the problem by moving the world’s money to China. Chinese never says to nationalize foreign investment in China as you urged Brazil to do so. It is the correct way to solve problems. You should learn from Jim Rogers.”

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Ricardo: I know who Jim Rogers is, and I agree with you that he is a very smart man.

But I don’t agree with his position in that subject.

Here is what I suggested on my article regarding the freshwater system in Brazil.

“Freshwater policy in Brazil should protect the entire freshwater system in Brazil including groundwater, and should keep it as a community service, and access to freshwater should be considered as a fundamental right of every person living in Brazil.

The water companies in Brazil should be developed with help from the federal government and they should operate such as mutual insurance companies in the United States – they should operate as non-profit organizations and the owners of these water companies should be the communities being served by the water company system.

The cost of water in Brazil should be priced according to the usage of the customers of the water companies, but a reasonable amount of freshwater should also be supplied to the poorest members of society who can’t afford the cost of these services without the help from the federal government.

The water distribution system of any area in Brazil shouldn’t be allowed to be privatized under any circumstance not only today, but also in the future.

Brazil should add on its constitution an amendment forbidding the privatization of any water company in Brazil, and if there is any private water company today they should deprivatize and turn it into a non-profit mutual company.

The same rules should also apply to the entire sewage system in Brazil.”

In my opinion, it is wrong for water companies to be run as a for profit companies – with the only goal being to maximize profits.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 27, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: “you still align your future with USA”

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Ricardo: My future is aligned with Brazil.

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Tom Lloyds said: “I also know that US dollar has problems. Your solutions of New Asian Currency by no mean a solution. You claim that Euro is great according to my understanding of your posts. With all the respect, Euro is also a flaw currency but just less flaw than US dollars.”

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Ricardo: There is no “forever solution” regarding the international monetary system, as you seem to be looking for.

The euro is not perfect solution, but it has been serving its purpose since the creation of the euro and this European monetary arrangement still will be useful for many years to come.

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Tom Lloyds: “Yes, the exchange rate can be fixed by controlling the money supply through ECB. If the member countries continues to borrow without limit, Euro will be in a state of overvalue.”

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Ricardo: That is why the ECB has the option and can raise the equivalent of the US Fed Funds rate to cool the borrowing that is going on.

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Tom Lloyds: It is the same for your New Asian Currency, NAC. You have no idea of the corruption situation in some Asian countries which you think that should be a member of NAC zone. A corrupted country will issue bonds without limit once it has a rich boss like China to back up the NAC. Will Chinese and Japanese be that stupid? Japanese never even bother to mention that NAC after that piece of news reported on New York Times. You are the only promoter.

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Ricardo: They would issue bonds as long there are buyers for their bonds, and they would have to pay a very high interest rate to find these buyers.

No different of what has been going on in California in the last few months. Usually the lenders are not supposed to be foolish if they do their homework.

That is in a perfect world, in reality they buy sub-prime junk that were rated AAA.

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Tom Lloyds said: “For the Chinese, they should not be fooled! Considering the situation that Brazil and China are using the same NAC and Brazil controls China’s food supply. Whatever the Brazilian says, Chinese must listen otherwise they will cut off the supply. Brazil can demand keeping the interest rate low such that they can continue to borrow in NAC, and Chinese will pay for the bill. Now, I understand why you have spent so much time to write this kind of junk articles.

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Ricardo: First, the purpose of adopting the New Asian Currency has to do with eliminating the foreign exchange risk between the countries that adopts such international monetary arrangement. It is a win/win situation to all members that belong to that international currency arrangement.

Second, Brazil is not going to control the foodstuff supply of China. Brazil would just complement and serve as an insurance policy to acquire the necessary short falls to meet Chinese total demand for food.

Brazil is not going to demand that interest rate should be kept lower for Brazil to be able to borrow in the New Asian Currency. You are saying that because you have no idea how the Brazilian central bank has run its monetary policy in the last 7 years; since the Lula administration adopted a very conservative policy.

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Tom Lloyds said: Chinese is moving in the right direction. The world needs a currency which is stable in value and is independent of any single country. SDR is a smart move. This concept will allow the Chinese to move their US asset slowly to the asset in SDR without distributing the world market.

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Ricardo: The SDR idea is not going anywhere. If SDR was a solution then SDR’s would be a major part of the foreign exchange reserve of most central banks.

In that sense China has another alternative to evaluate.

China also can consider the “Monopoly Money” and China can exchange its US dollars for Monopoly Money - …and is independent of any single country.

I am sure that Hasbro probably will be able to accommodate any of China’s requests. And you can buy with that money railroads, water works, electric utility companies, a lot of prime location real estate and a lot more.

http://www.hasbro.com/games/kid-games/monopoly/

Quantities and denominations found in standard editions of the MONOPOLY game: 30 $500 Bills (orange), 30 $100 Bills (peach), 30 $50 Bills (purple), 30 $20. Bills (light green), 30 $10. Bills (blue), 30 $5. Bills (pink), 30 $1. Bills (white). Total amount of money per game = $20,580.

And there is also another advantage:

Short on MONOPOLY game cash?

Be as rich as you want to be and print your own money!

http://www.hasbro.com/games/ki.../gametools

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 27, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: “It is native to hand over a national security to a foreign country. Food and water supplies are vital for national security. They must be solved by the Chinese people themselves, not by any foreign countries. It is important to restrict food import such that Chinese farmer can continue to farm. If the cheap food from Brazil is dumped in the Chinese market, and the Chinese farmers give up their farmland, the situation will be serious. It only encourages more pollution and lost of farmland.

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Ricardo: The United States has placed its national security in jeopardy, by becoming so dependent on other countries to supply its domestic oil needs.

There is plenty of customers around the world to buy the extra food supply produced in Brazil - and Brazil should strength its relations even further with these customers for the long-term.

When there is a food shortage around the world in the future – and you can bet that food shortage is going to happen - then at that time China can ask Japan and Taiwan to help China feed its people.

It seems to me that Tom Lloyds still having a hard time grasping a simple fact that was also included on my article as follows:

“The policy-makers in China must be aware that the country's rapid urbanization will affect its ability regarding local food production, since, when a country embarks on such a huge urban and economic development, there are also other costs when a new highway and road system, bridges, new manufacturing centers, shopping malls, condos, and so on are being built. Very often these economic development projects are being built where before there were farms that supported the internal food production system of that country. When you replace productive lands with roads, and with all kinds of concrete structures, in the process you are also reducing even further your future food production capabilities.”

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Reply to Ricardo
written by Tom Lloyds, July 28, 2009

1.I said that Jim Rogers always remind investors to invest in Chinese water technology companies. I do not understand your answer related to those state water companies in Brazil means. Is it related? Jim tells the world to put their money on water technology companies not distribution companies. Come on! Those water technology companies can help Chinese to clean up the mess.
2.Chinese is doing my way. They put much incentive on agriculture now. It is the right way. Here is the link you can learn something.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Rogers Sees Growth in China Infrastructure, Agriculture&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vF4CPjvN5Kj4.asf

3.Your comments on SDR are childish.
4.First there is no Asian Union as there is a European Union. Even Hong Kong, Macau, and China cannot use one single currency. Well, until the time at which your bone can beat the drum, there may be a chance of talking to integrate Hong Kong, Macau and China’s currency. Your dream is unrealistic.
5.Your comments on New Asian Currency hides the fact that rich countries in this NAC zone bear the credit risk of poor countries. You never learn it. I hope that I do not need to write more to teach a person with such a low IQ this simple fact! You just wish China to pay for the debt of Brazil, and other poor countries.
6.Your example of California is nonsense. If California were an independent country, California would have ton of gold in reserve to back up the California dollar as California was gold producing state. I do not know whether California protects the US dollar or the US dollar protects California as you dream.
7.Water is vital to a country. If there is a problem, the country must put their resource to solve the problem. It is live and death. Your oil analogy is inappropriate. Without oil, Chinese can still live and ride the bike. Without water, even with ton of foods shipped from Brazil, no one can eat it. Therefore, now it is the time to impose quota on food import to encourage people to reserve water and not to pollute it. If the cheap food from Brazil is spread on the Chinese market, no one will have the incentive to save the water source and the farmland. It will make the matter worse.
8.You never give the correct to the question: Why does the Japanese never mention your great New Asian Currency again?
9.You think that if there is a problem in water, there will be a problem in agriculture. It is wrong and nonsense! Israel has a shortage of water as well. They invented the “agriculture growth to the last drop of water technology”. Chinese should develop their own agriculture technology. Their money should be used on themselves, not to give it someone else anymore.
10.Even the Grand son of, the Grand son of, the Grand son of …..…..the father of Brazil refuses to live in Brazil, no wonder Brazil has food surplus. Jim Rogers’ daughters speak native Chinese. Can your kids speak native protugesee,.. sorry, how to spell the name of this unimportant language? Are you joking that your future lies with Brazil? I cannot get it, Sir!
11.Why did you spend your time to write these junks? You explain that you wish to help the Brazilian technology company. I have spent so much my time to teach you that nationalization will collapse technology company because nationalization will out obstacle on international collaboration. You still cannot get it. I really doubt your motivation to write those articles.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 29, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: “I said that Jim Rogers always remind investors to invest in Chinese…”

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Ricardo: You believe that China should follow everything that your investment guru says. By the way, he does not live in China (in Shanghai or in Beijing), I understand he lives in Singapore.

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Tom Lloyds said: “First there is no Asian Union as there is a European Union. Even Hong Kong, Macau, and China cannot use one single currency. Well, until the time at which your bone can beat the drum, there may be a chance of talking to integrate Hong Kong, Macau and China’s currency. Your dream is unrealistic.

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Ricardo: Your comment shows how you are deep in the box, and you are aware of all your limitations and boundaries.

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Tom Lloyds said: “Your comments on New Asian Currency hides the fact that rich countries in this NAC zone bear the credit risk of poor countries. You never learn it. I hope that I do not need to write more to teach a person with such a low IQ this simple fact! You just wish China to pay for the debt of Brazil, and other poor countries.

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Ricardo: Brazil has a very low government debt ratio to GDP. What are you talking about?

Talking about being a poor country: the last time I checked the figures regarding Brazil and China the figures looked like this:

Brazil: GDP – per capita = US$ 10,100 (2008 est.)

China: GDP – per capita = US$ $6,000 (2008 est.)

China’s labor force is 8 times larger than Brazil’s labor force – and China’s GDP per capita is almost half of the GDP per capita of Brazil.

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Brazil:

Population: 198,739,269 (July 2009 est.)

Labor force: 100.9 million (2008 est.)

GDP (purchasing power parity) = $ 1.99 trillion dollars (2008 est.)

GDP (official exchange rate) = $ 1.67 trillion dollars (2008 est.)

GDP – per capita = US$ 10,100 (2008 est.)

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China:

Population: 1,338,612,968 (July 2009 est.)

Labor force: 807.7 million (2008 est.)

GDP (purchasing power parity) = $ $7.8 trillion dollars (2008 est.)

GDP (official exchange rate) = $ $4.222 trillion dollars (2008 est.)

GDP – per capita = US$ $6,000 (2008 est.)

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 29, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: “Your example of California is nonsense. If California were an independent country, California would have ton of gold in reserve to back up the California dollar as California was gold producing state. I do not know whether California protects the US dollar or the US dollar protects California as you dream.”

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Ricardo: Are you serious? Or are you that thick and …?

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Tom Lloyds said: “Water is vital to a country. If there is a problem, the country must put their resource to solve the problem. It is live and death. Your oil analogy is inappropriate. Without oil, Chinese can still live and ride the bike. Without water, even with ton of foods shipped from Brazil, no one can eat it. Therefore, now it is the time to impose quota on food import to encourage people to reserve water and not to pollute it. If the cheap food from Brazil is spread on the Chinese market, no one will have the incentive to save the water source and the farmland. It will make the matter worse.

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Ricardo: Your analysis shows that you have been drinking too much of the polluted water and is already affecting your thinking.

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Tom Lloyds said: “You never give the correct to the question: Why does the Japanese never mention your great New Asian Currency again?

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Ricardo: “Japan's shadow finance minister wants single Asian currency”
http://www.asiaone.com/News/La...45078.html


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Tom Lloyds said: “You think that if there is a problem in water, there will be a problem in agriculture. It is wrong and nonsense! Israel has a shortage of water as well. They invented the “agriculture growth to the last drop of water technology”. Chinese should develop their own agriculture technology. Their money should be used on themselves, not to give it someone else anymore.

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Ricardo: Israel is a little country with a very small population – and that is your model to solve the water and agriculture problem in China with almost 1.5 billion people?

Are you kidding? Are you that thick?

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Tom Lloyds said: “Why did you spend your time to write these junks? You explain that you wish to help the Brazilian technology company. I have spent so much my time to teach you that nationalization will collapse technology company because nationalization will out obstacle on international collaboration. You still cannot get it. I really doubt your motivation to write those articles.”

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Ricardo: More people have been contacting me lately asking me if they can publish my articles also on their websites. There are thousands of people reading my articles and many readers send me emails saying how much they appreciate all the information and new perspectives that I am giving them on these articles.

If my articles are junk, then why are so obsessive about what I write?

I don’t pay any attention to any material that I think it is junk. I don’t waste a second reading any stuff that I think it is junk.

The only reason I am reading what you have been writing on the comments section of my article is a matter of courtesy and I have been trying to educate you – but you seem to be a lost cause. You are inside of the box and you know all your limitations and all the boundaries around you.

All you can see is the world of yesterday and nothing else.

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Reply to Deepak Lal
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 29, 2009

There is the European Economic Community including such countries as England and Sweden – the political European Union, and there is the European Monetary Union (EMU); a monetary arrangement between the European Economic Community members that decided to adopt the Euro as their currency.

And in my opinion, Russia should adopt the Euro as its currency, not for political reasons, but for the economic reasons as I described on my article.

I have no doubt that the Euro still be around 30 years from now when the bonds come to be redeemed.

By the way, what guarantees do you have that the bonds issued in US dollars would be worth anything 30 years from now?

My article it is about restructuring the international monetary system, and I did not say: “…has proposed an Asian currency union (modelled on the euro) centred around the renminbi,”

I said on my article: China should create a “New Asian Currency” similar to the Euro, and I did not say anything about this new currency being centered on the renminbi or yuan.

A “New Asian Currency” means that at a certain date all the currencies of the countries that are going to adopt this new currency translate its currency into this “New Asian Currency” and at that point there is the transition period until there is only this “New Asian Currency.”

A process no different than what happened with the transition period of local currencies such as the German Mark and the French Franc when these currencies merged into the Euro.

This “New Asian Currency” would not be pegged to the dollar – the “New Asian Currency” would free float in the same way the US dollar and the Euro float in international markets today.

Ricardo C. Amaral


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“A new international monetary system?”
By: Deepak Lal
Business Standard
New Delhi - July 28, 2009
http://www.business-standard.c...em/365130/

…the proposal being floated by a Brazilian economist for four competing currency unions, with four alternative reserve currencies, likely to succeed. Ricardo Amaral (“Brazil, China, and the New Asian currency”, www.rgemonitor.com) has proposed an Asian currency union (modelled on the euro) centred around the renminbi, which would also include Brazil. Russia should join the euro, and the Gulf countries should have a common currency centred on the Saudi rial. But, currency unions require some political common ground amongst the participating countries ideally, as in the US— currency union is a political union. The euro still remains fragile, because the hoped-for European political union has not yet emerged. A stable political union is necessary if 30-year bonds issued in the common currency are to be widely held. Without a political union there can be no guarantee that the common currency will be around when the bonds come to be redeemed.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 30, 2009

July 30, 2009

Here is an article on today’s Financial Times (UK) that explains why SDR’s is not a solution for China regarding its massive accumulation of US dollars assets.


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“Chatter about a new global currency is overblown”
By Robert Pozen
Financial Times (UK)
Published: July 29, 2009

At the US-China summit this week, Chinese officials raised concerns that the surging US budget deficit could undermine the value of China’s huge dollar holdings. These same concerns motivated the governor of the People’s Bank of China to suggest replacing the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency with special drawing rights issued by the International Monetary Fund. To be specific, he proposed that central banks be allowed to swap their dollar reserves for SDRs held in a substitution account by the IMF. SDRs represent a basket of four currencies – comprising 44 per cent US dollars, 34 per cent euros, 11 per cent yen and 11 per cent pound sterling.

However, SDRs are not a realistic alternative to US dollars as the global reserve currency because there are too few of them in circulation. For the same reason, swaps of US dollars for SDRs would have limited utility….

… However, these swaps would have to be of limited volume because they effectively transfer the risk of dollar depreciation from central banks to the IMF.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8893...ck_check=1

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Reply to Ricardo
written by Tom Lloyds, August 01, 2009

Reply to Ricardo:

1.Can you tell me what is the yield of long term Brazilian government bond? It is over 12% per year! Even in the middle of global recession, Brazilian government cannot lower the interest rate to the single digit level. Why? It is because the market is viewing Brazilian government carries a high risk of default rateYour number of debt ratio is meaningless to me. This default risk will pass to China if Chinese allows Brazil to adopt your New Asian Currency, NAC. ! I am sure that you cannot understand this simple concept. You do not need to reply to me. I do not want to waste my time anymore.
2.Newspapers reported that in this year, Brazilian government has fired more than 300 civil corrupted servants but the government cannot put even one into jail because of the special legal system in Brazil. Corruption is serious in Brazil according to the report. You asked the Chinese to lend their money to a corrupted government for a return of guarantee supply of food. Are you nut? Who can thrust a corrupted government? China is a country, which puts a bullet into the head of a corrupted officer and requires that guy to pay for the bullet otherwise they will guarantee that they will make a mess on his head if he does not pay for the bullet. Will China be happy dealing with a government with a high level of corruption in particular that this government uses the same currency as the Chinese?
3.I really doubt whether you see and understand the future. You warn the Chinese not having enough food on global warming and tell the Chinese to lend Brazil money in exchange of food because Brazil had too much food. Do you have some common sense? On global warming, countries near the equator are going into big trouble on agriculture. Brazil is one of them. I can give you some links here and please read it. http://www.wharton.universia.n...ge=english
http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-5544-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html
http://news.mongabay.com/2006/...nside.html

Brazil is worrying their own food supply! You are treating the Chinese as a fool with an empty check! The future belongs to the countries near the north and south poles. The world’s biggest fresh water lake is just in China’s back door. Russia has a lot of unfarmed farmland. Most of the fresh water in the world is frozen in Canada. Brazil is running into trouble on global warming!
4.Ricardo: Your analysis shows that you have been drinking too much of the polluted water and is already affecting your thinking.

I have not drunk any polluted water. If an economy reaches a state of losing the “marginal” drop of water, which will cause a lot of pain, people within this economy will try to stop losing this “marginal” drop of water. The best way to do this is to ban food import such that this economy will reach the state of marginal drop of water earlier. It will save more water. It is only economics 101. I am completely shocked that you cannot even understand it. Even I am not an economist as you are, I know this simple economical theory.

5.Why am I so obsessive about what you write? I hate to waste my time to teach you something on the Internet. I do this because I find that you try to tell the world what to do. For an example, your junk article on nationalization of PBR tell the Brazilian government to nationalize PBR at the peak of oil price. You did not understand the impact and used your family political connection to implement your plan. You always think that you are right and you know the future. In fact, you are an incapable person. You cannot even think and analyze. What you have done can affect the live of millions and you are not aware of it! The foodstuff from Brazil is another example. You thought Brazil would still have enough food. What a shame! I need to waste my time to point out all the mistakes in your article.
6.If you wish to write. I can suggest some topics for you. I sold most of my US dollar at the peak of US dollar several years ago and invested in a currency which has appreciated more than 50% until today. I am smart. I can see the future! You cannot. You still stay in US and are paid in US dollar. I am not paid in US dollar long time ago. Here are the topics which you can write: 1. Why was I not so smart so Tom Lloyds and is still holding my home in US which is price in US dollar? 2. How to cook Brazilian food. I suggest these topics because you have questioned Chinese’s intelligence of holding US dollar in their reserve.
7.Lastly, the money belongs to the Chinese. The Chinese earns their money with their blood and tear. Now they are spending in their own country to clean up their water system and build their infrastructure. They have their right to do so. How they spend their money is none of your business.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 02, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: “Can you tell me what is the yield of long term Brazilian government bond? It is over 12% per year! Even in the middle of global recession, Brazilian government cannot lower the interest rate to the single digit level. Why? It is because the market is viewing Brazilian government carries a high risk of default rate. This default risk will pass to China if Chinese allows Brazil to adopt your New Asian Currency, NAC. ! I am sure that you cannot understand this simple concept.

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Ricardo: The high level of interest rate in Brazil has been part of the conservative policies adopted by the Brazilian central Bank for many years. That is why we have not had economic and financial bubbles in Brazil as we had in other parts of the world.

When Brazil adopts the New Asian Currency the interest rate should go down as it did in many countries that adopted the euro. The interest rate inside these countries went lower than if they had kept their old currencies.

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Tom Lloyds said: Newspapers reported that in this year, Brazilian government has fired more than 300 civil corrupted servants but the government cannot put even one into jail because of the special legal system in Brazil. Corruption is serious in Brazil according to the report. You asked the Chinese to lend their money to a corrupted government for a return of guarantee supply of food. Are you nut? Who can thrust a corrupted government? China is a country, which puts a bullet into the head of a corrupted officer and requires that guy to pay for the bullet otherwise they will guarantee that they will make a mess on his head if he does not pay for the bullet. Will China be happy dealing with a government with a high level of corruption in particular that this government uses the same currency as the Chinese?

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Ricardo: China has been accumulating trillions of US dollar assets, and it seems to me that China will continue pilling up even more in the future.

The corruption that you are talking about in Brazil is about nickels and dimes; about nepotism, about giving government jobs to friends and relatives. About the Brazilian government paying the services of a butler that had been working for a Brazilian senator. All the scandal that you are talking about is related to the people who are fighting for power regarding the presidential election in Brazil of 2010.

It is pure dirty politics at its lowest level, and nothing else.

I hope you know what the word nepotism means.

On the other hand, China is lending money to the United States by the trillions, and where all that money is going?

To the money pit!!!

1) About $ 2 trillion dollars for fighting 2 losing wars; the Iraq fiasco, and Afghanistan the graveyard to former superpowers.

2) September 2008 - $ 800 billion bailout for Wall Street – as fast the taxpayer money went to AIG (over $ 100 billion dollars) the money was paid back to companies such as Goldman Sacks by the billions; and Goldman Sacks used that money to line the pockets of its executives bi the billions of US dollars.

3) The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernake’s management have been accumulating trillions and trillions of US dollars in toxic assets (about $ 13 trillion dollars) that will cost a fortune to US taxpayers. The US financial system including major banks, and other financial institutions gave garbage to the US Federal Reserve in exchange for good money.

That probably can be considered the largest heist in global financial history.

I would not want to deny the Chinese government from making such great investments like that. Please keep sending the cash to the US, because there are many other opportunities like that in the US; and the US government will need on the near future a ton of new money coming from to keep a bunch of money pits going.

As you said Tom: “Lastly, the money belongs to the Chinese. The Chinese earns their money with their blood and tear.”

Please keep sending the money to the US that the Chinese earns with their blood and tear since as you can see that money is being very well invested in the US – according to you.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 02, 2009

On the other hand, China is lending money to the United States by the trillions, and where all that money is going?

To the money pit!!!

1) About $ 2 trillion dollars for fighting 2 losing wars; the Iraq fiasco, and Afghanistan the graveyard to former superpowers.

2) September 2008 - $ 800 billion bailout for Wall Street – as fast the taxpayer money went to AIG (over $ 100 billion dollars) the money was paid back to companies such as Goldman Sacks by the billions; and Goldman Sacks used that money to line the pockets of its executives bi the billions of US dollars.

3) The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernake’s management have been accumulating trillions and trillions of US dollars in toxic assets (about $ 13 trillion dollars) that will cost a fortune to US taxpayers. The US financial system including major banks, and other financial institutions gave garbage to the US Federal Reserve in exchange for good money.

That probably can be considered the largest heist in global financial history.

I would not want to deny the Chinese government from making such great investments like that. Please keep sending the cash to the US, because there are many other opportunities like that in the US; and the US government will need on the near future a ton of new money coming from to keep a bunch of money pits going.

As you said Tom: “Lastly, the money belongs to the Chinese. The Chinese earns their money with their blood and tear.”

Please keep sending the money to the US that the Chinese earns with their blood and tear since as you can see that money is being very well invested in the US – according to you.








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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 02, 2009

As you said Tom: “Lastly, the money belongs to the Chinese. The Chinese earns their money with their blood and tear.”

Please keep sending the money to the US that the Chinese earns with their blood and tear since as you can see that money is being very well invested in the US – according to you.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 02, 2009

Tom Lloyds said: I really doubt whether you see and understand the future. You warn the Chinese not having enough food on global warming and tell the Chinese to lend Brazil money in exchange of food because Brazil had too much food. Do you have some common sense? On global warming, countries near the equator are going into big trouble on agriculture. Brazil is one of them. I can give you some links here and please read it.

Brazil is worrying their own food supply! You are treating the Chinese as a fool with an empty check! The future belongs to the countries near the north and south poles. The world’s biggest fresh water lake is just in China’s back door. Russia has a lot of unfarmed farmland. Most of the fresh water in the world is frozen in Canada. Brazil is running into trouble on global warming!

*****

Ricardo: I don’t know if you took the time to read my 4-part article about China investing $ 200 billion dollars in Brazil?

Because based on your posting you continue to be completely clueless about the subject of freshwater and food supply.

*****

Tom Lloyds said: “Why am I so obsessive about what you write? I hate to waste my time to teach you something on the Internet. I do this because I find that you try to tell the world what to do. For an example, your junk article on nationalization of PBR tell the Brazilian government to nationalize PBR at the peak of oil price. You did not understand the impact and used your family political connection to implement your plan.

*****

Ricardo: The Brazilian government understand what I have been trying to say with my articles; and they are in the process of creating a new company 100 percent owned by the Brazilian government to develop the new oil fields in Brazil – and a large part of the revenues of this new company will be used to build Brazilian infrastructure – just as I described on my article.

Yes, they are implementing my plan!!!!!!

*****

Tom Lloyds said: “I suggest these topics because you have questioned Chinese’s intelligence of holding US dollar in their reserve.”

*****

Ricardo: I am not questioning Chinese’s intelligence of holding US dollar in their reserve.

The Chinese had a good deal going on up to now; the Chinese accumulate trillion of US dollars (which will lose a lot of its value in the coming years) in exchange for all kinds of US jobs. The Chinese financed this waste of money here in the US in exchange of millions of jobs for the Chinese people.

But today even the Chinese are aware that they are accumulating a pile of Confetti.

Other countries are also becoming vocal about moving away from the US dollar; countries such Russia, Brazil, various countries in the Middle East, Japan, and so on…

Basically, everybody has realized at this point that the US government policies are turning the US dollar into Confetti.

*****

Tom Lloyds said: They have their right to do so. How they spend their money is none of your business.

*****

Ricardo: Yes, the Chinese has the right to throw their hard earned money away – as they have been doing by the billions.

They can buy hundred of billions more of US government bonds, and so forth – and as you said: they can buy as much Confetti as they want, and it is none of my business.

I just hope you are not going to try to convince me that accumulating trillions of US dollar assets - it is smart business when we know how that money is being used for.

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Reply to Ricardo
written by Tom Lloyds, August 02, 2009

Ricardo: The Brazilian government understand what I have been trying to say with my articles; and they are in the process of creating a new company 100 percent owned by the Brazilian government to develop the new oil fields in Brazil – and a large part of the revenues of this new company will be used to build Brazilian infrastructure – just as I described on my article.

Yes, they are implementing my plan in Brazil!!!!!!

Tom: ????? Was ist das? Können Sie Englisch lesen?

Read this. You say that they are implementing your junk plan????

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLPEoeBNwanY

Petrobras to Hold Stake, Operate All Pre-Salt Wells (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Iuri Dantas and Heloiza Canassa

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state-controlled oil producer, will have a stake in all so- called pre-salt oil fields under new rules being considered by the government, the country’s energy minister said.

Petrobras, as the Rio de Janeiro-based company is known, would also be the operator of the fields even if it held a minority stake, Energy Minister Edison Lobao told reporters today in Brasilia.

Brazil is preparing new legislation to govern oil and gas exploration and production in the country’s offshore pre-salt area. The region contains the Tupi field, the largest oil discovery in the Americas in the last three decades.

“Petrobras’s participation will be in the auction rules,” Lobao said. “Petrobras can be the block operator even if it holds a minority stake.”

........................

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new oil company 100 percent owned by the Brazilian government
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 03, 2009

Ricardo: Yes, part of the revenue generated by this new oil company 100 percent owned by the Brazilian government - it will be used to build new infrastructure inside Brazil.


*****


But the Brazilian government, like governments of many other developing oil-rich nations, also has an appetite for state control.

Indeed President Lula and Minister of Mines and Energy Edison Lobão are backing a proposal to create a new 100% state-controlled company to take ownership of the reserves, in place of Petrobras (only 60% state-owned), and develop them in partnership with others.

Though foreign firms would not necessarily be excluded from such partnerships, they could lose various financial benefits of the current concession system. President Lula's attitude to foreign involvement appears grudging - he has revived Petrobras' old nationalist slogan, "The oil is ours," in making the case for the new state-controlled companies.

…Another potential concern for western energy firms is a recent landmark agreement between Brazil and China that might, in time, give Chinese companies an advantage over western oil firms in gaining access to projects. The deal basically guarantees some long-term supplies of oil to China in return for US$ 10 billion to help Petrobras develop the oilfields.

But the deal appears to be more than a simple exchange of oil for finance - it also appears to cover some joint development of projects (between Petrobras and Chinese national oil companies, Sinopec and PetroChina), as well as supply of goods and services to Petrobras by Chinese companies.

http://www.brazzil.com/compone...erty.html




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Können Sie Englisch lesen, Ricardo?
written by Tom Lloyds, August 04, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIX6l.QS0qec
Lula Backs More Petrobras Control of the Pre-Salt, Valor Says


By Helder Marinho

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva supports plans to give Petroleo Brasileiro SA more control of the pre-salt region to limit foreign companies’ ownership of the oil reserves, Valor Economico reported..........



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a064NO94.k0c

Petrobras May Be the Only Operator of Pre-Salt, O Globo Says


By Helder Marinho

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state controlled oil company, may be the only operator of oil fields in the pre-salt region under new rules, O Globo newspaper reported, citing mines and energy minister Edison Lobao. .......

........A new state-controlled company will be created to manage exploration blocks outside the pre-salt region, O Globo reported. New oil rules will be presented to Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva within a week, O Globo said.

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Financial marriage between China and the U.S. on the rocks
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 05, 2009

This marriage might end up in a nasty divorce.

“Financial marriage between China and the U.S. on the rocks”

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...did=172228


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It is a shame, Ricardo
written by Tom Lloyds, August 09, 2009

If someone knows others having some money in their pockets, it is understandable this persons will find some reasons to get the money out of their pocket.

The logic which Ricardo used is a shame! It sounds like this. If the Chinese is fooled by the American, what is wrong if the Chinese is fooled by the Brazilian again?

Ricardo warns the Chinese not having enough food because of shortage of water, and tells the Chinese to lend Brazil money in exchange of food because Brazil had too much food. Does he have some common sense? On global warming, countries near the equator are going into big trouble on agriculture. Brazil is one of them. Brazil is worrying whether it has enough food. Here are the links.

http://www.wharton.universia.n...ge=english
http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-5544-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html
http://news.mongabay.com/2006/...nside.html

Ricardo is writing an empty check to the Chinese and is fooling the Chinese.

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Letter that I received on August 8, 2009 from Mr. Manfred regarding the above article.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 09, 2009

Letter that I received on August 8, 2009 from Mr. Manfred regarding the above article.


Dear Mr. Amaral:

Your suggestion that Brazil adopt the new Asian currency is an interesting one; you said that you had suggested the Euro years ago but changed your opinion. Later on in the article you write about future currency blocks where you say "and even some other currency that has not shown on the radar as yet"

Do you envision a South American currency? I imagine that at this decisive moment in history it might be advantageous for South America to have its own currency (similar to the Euro).

I am raising this question now because the debate is starting. Since a currency is a symbol which can unify people and nations, I see great benefits in a proper South American currency, not an Asian reserve currency for South America. This concept would require deep insight, foresight and unity. It is a vision. This is why:

South America has endured exploitation for centuries which has formed (psychologically and possibly genetically) the people beyond our imagination. Replacing the US dollar as a reserve currency in South America with an Asian one would be like replacing one "conquistador" by another. Psychologically not much will change. People continue focusing on outside forces and blaming them for whatever problem comes to mind at the moment. Such a focus is a waste of time and energy and detracts them from the real problem: People need to know themselves and about the world (education), look inwards (analysis, editorials, free publication and exchange of opinions), change themselves (which means some savings or discretionary income), feel positive and in control of their lives, acquire positive self-esteem, and feel free to create new or modify existing institutions and the ways of relating to each other (freedom to associate and flexibility of contracts, and more). (This is an initial, partial list. I admit that is has not been factored well)

The reason why I am writing to you about this is that I see here an opportunity for South America to move ahead. Yes, new institutions, credit, a unified currency, etc. are needed; but also widespread, positive self-esteem and a feeling of empowerment. I arrived two years ago and noticed that this seems to be lacking in Peru and Chile (I can't speak about the other countries). Several Peruvians and Chileans have talked to me about similar issues. Even the university Santo Tomás is aware of this because they have tens of thousands of announcements on the backs of buses preaching ¡Tú puedes! However, saying it is not enough; one needs to have the experience. A South American unified currency would give collectively the people the experience of and a feeling for pride in having accomplished some independence (¡Sí, podemos!) and will free them to focus more on matters at home instead of blaming the new emperor(s).

Does this idea make sense? Would you be willing to write about it? If your answer is positive, I would like to start a dialog.

I am looking forward to your reply.

Sincerely yours,

Manfred
From Country: Spain

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Reply to Mr. Manfred - Part 1
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 09, 2009

Manfred: Later on in the article you write about future currency blocks where you say "and even some other currency that has not shown on the radar as yet"

*****

Ricardo: No - I don’t envision a South American currency.

*****

Manfred said: “I imagine that at this decisive moment in history it might be advantageous for South America to have its own currency (similar to the Euro).”

*****

Ricardo: South America does not have the economic foundations and structure and the necessary amount of foreign exchange reserves to create a South American mega currency. I mentioned on my articles over the years that if South America decides to create a new mega currency for South America I would suggest that the name of this new currency to be “The Bankrupt.”

There is no advantage for Brazil to adopt a new currency with the other countries of South America – In that case Brazil would be better of just keeping the Real.

*****

Manfred: I see great benefits in a proper South American currency, not an Asian reserve currency for South America.

*****

Ricardo: I did not suggest that South America should adopt the “New Asian Currency.” I suggested that Brazil should adopt the “New Asian Currency.”

*****

Manfred: South America has endured exploitation for centuries which has formed (psychologically and possibly genetically) the people beyond our imagination. Replacing the US dollar as a reserve currency in South America with an Asian one would be like replacing one "conquistador" by another. Psychologically not much will change. People continue focusing on outside forces and blaming them for whatever problem comes to mind at the moment. Such a focus is a waste of time and energy and detracts them from the real problem: People need to know themselves and about the world (education), look inwards (analysis, editorials, free publication and exchange of opinions), change themselves (which means some savings or discretionary income), feel positive and in control of their lives, acquire positive self-esteem, and feel free to create new or modify existing institutions and the ways of relating to each other (freedom to associate and flexibility of contracts, and more). (This is an initial, partial list. I admit that is has not been factored well)

*****

Ricardo: My plan for Brazil to adopt the “New Asian Currency” has nothing to do with replacing one “conquistador” by another.

The plan that I suggested for Brazil is not designed for people to acquire positive self-esteem, and feel free to create new…

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Reply to Mr. Manfred - Part 2
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 09, 2009

Manfred: The reason why I am writing to you about this is that I see here an opportunity for South America to move ahead. Yes, new institutions, credit, a unified currency, etc. are needed; but also widespread, positive self-esteem and a feeling of empowerment.

… A South American unified currency would give collectively the people the experience of and a feeling for pride in having accomplished some independence (¡Sí, podemos!) and will free them to focus more on matters at home instead of blaming the new emperor(s).

*****

Ricardo: You should read some of the articles that I added at the end of my article about the “New Asian Currency”. If you read these articles then you will understand the reasons why I am suggesting that Brazil should adopt the “New Asian Currency.”

Creating “The Bankrupt” as the new mega currency for South America is not going to accomplish any of your goals. You don’t have all the economic foundations and financial structures necessary for this currency to be considered a major foreign exchange reserve currency.

If South America decides to adopt “The Bankrupt” it will be just an empty and marginal currency without the necessary foundations necessary for that currency to be taken seriously by the international monetary system.

You don’t create a new mega currency just to make people feel a positive self-esteem and a feeling of empowerment. In Brazil we have soccer tournaments that serve for that purpose.

Brazil has been independent of Portugal since 1822, and I doubt that there is a single soul in Brazil who still is blaming what is happening in Brazil today on what happened 200 years ago when Brazil was a colony of Portugal.

Brazil is larger than Europe, and Brazil is 50 percent of South America. Besides, Brazil already has a population approaching 200 million people of whom 100 million people are destitute and live in complete poverty.

Please tell me why Brazil should unite with a group of very poor countries and triple the number of uneducated people who are living in complete poverty?

We are in the 21st Century and it does not matter where a country is located – that country will be able to choose any mega currency that is the best choice for each individual country based on trade and many other economic factors. Technology changed everything, and the rules for the new international monetary game has been drastically changed since the creation of the euro.

The reason I changed my mind about 4 or 5 years ago about Brazil adopting the “New Asian Currency” instead of the euro has to do with what is the best economic strategy for Brazil regarding the coming decades.

Please tell me what is better for Brazil regarding the coming decades. Here are your 2 choices:


1) Brazil adopts the “New Asian Currency”

The Brazilian economy prospers beyond imagination under the umbrella of a very stable “New Asian Currency” – a monetary arrangement among countries such as China, Japan, India, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Brazil.

A new currency arrangement with a very strong, stable and state-of-the-art financial market and very low interest rate – and this financial stability help all the members that adopted this currency to develop and implement all kinds of long-term projects – it is good for local governments and to private industry as well.

The currency stability and a strong financial market means that long-term capital can be raised, and also paid in local currency.


2) Brazil adopts “The Bankrupt”

“The Bankrupt” would be a monetary arrangement among countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, Chile, Colombia, Uruguay, Ecuador, and Venezuela.

No financial stability, very high interest rate, high inflation around the corner, and the concept of a long-term investment boils down to just a few months in the future.

If anything under such a monetary arrangement the interest rate for Brazil would be higher than if Brazil stayed with its current currency - the Real.

Brazil has nothing to gain by adopting “The Bankrupt.”

Sorry to disappoint you. But that is the economic reality of South America, and I know my answer is not what you were expecting.

Ricardo C. Amaral
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Even the Japanese are starting to wake up...
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 12, 2009

Ricardo C. Amaral: China is not the only country that is worried about their US dollar holdings being turned into Confetti.

Even the Japanese are starting to wake up. Let me translate for you what they mean by: “regional currency union”

“Regional currency union” = “New Asian Currency.”

This article was published on the front page of the Financial Times.


*****


“Japanese poll leader in attack on 'US-led market fundamentalism'”
By Mure Dickie in Tokyo
Financial Times (UK)
Published: August 11, 2009

Yukio Hatoyama, the leader of Japan's opposition Democratic party who is strongly placed to become prime minister after elections this month, has condemned "US-led market fundamentalism" and vowed to shield his nation from the effects of untrammelled globalisation.

With the era of US unilateralism ending and worries about the dollar's future role growing, Japan should also work towards regional currency union and political integration in an "east Asian community", Mr Hatoyama wrote in an essay published yesterday in the Japanese magazine Voice…

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A warning to the Chinese
written by Tom Lloyds, August 13, 2009

Ricardo: "No financial stability, very high interest rate, high inflation around the corner, and the concept of a long-term investment boils down to just a few months in the future.

If anything under such a monetary arrangement the interest rate for Brazil would be higher than if Brazil stayed with its current currency - the Real."

Tom: A warning to the Chinese. If the Chinese let Brazil to use the Chinese currency, giving the the high interest rate of Brazil, Chinese has very thing to lose. Forget the food. Brazil cannot grow food on global warming.

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Japanese wakes up?
written by Tom Lloyds, August 13, 2009

Give me a break! During the election year, the opposition party must say something sound good!

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 13, 2009

Tom Lloyds: A warning to the Chinese. If the Chinese let Brazil to use the Chinese currency, giving the the high interest rate of Brazil, Chinese has very thing to lose. Forget the food. Brazil cannot grow food on global warming.


*****


Ricardo: You still don’t have a clue about the subject that you are trying to talk about.

I am sorry for you since you must suffer from a major case of learning disability.

Learning disability (sometimes called a learning disorder or learning difficulty,) is a disorder in which a person has a difficulty to learn effectively, caused by an unknown factor or factors. The unknown factor is the disorder that affects the brain's ability to receive and process information. This disorder can make it problematic for a person to learn as quickly as someone who isn't affected by a learning disability.

A learning disability cannot be cured or fixed; it is a lifelong issue.

If you did not suffer from learning disability then you would not still posting stuff like this: “Forget the food. Brazil cannot grow food on global warming.”

There is two options here after all your comments after my articles: Or you suffer from a major case of learning disability or you are so stupid that is beyond anyone’s imagination.

Your comment about the interest rate shows how clueless you are about that subject. You have no idea about what happened regarding that subject in Euroland – in the countries that adopted the euro as its currency.


*****


Tom Lloyds: Give me a break! During the election year, the opposition party must say something sound good!


*****


Ricardo: You are saying that the “New Asian Currency” sounds good!!!!!

That’s why the opposition party is using this subject to be elected into office in Japan?

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Ricardo, you ask Chinese to exchange money for food from Brazil! Are you nut? part 1
written by Tom Lloyds, August 13, 2009

Global Warming and its Impact on Brazilian Agriculture

If recent forecasts for extraordinary temperature increases around the globe prove to be accurate, the Brazilian economy runs the risk of collapsing, according to some experts. The most widely discussed symptom of this potential crisis in agriculture is that grain production could drop in half during the next century as the climate becomes warmer. That would be accompanied by a reduction in the area that can be used for cultivating the country’s most important agricultural products.

This situation makes climate change a subject of urgent concern in the Brazilian government. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCCC), affiliated with the United Nations, there is “unequivocal” evidence that human beings are responsible for creating global warming. The IPCC confirms that the past six years have been the warmest in history, and that the current concentration of gases in the atmosphere is at its highest level in 650 years.

Whether human beings or natural factors are responsible, Brazil has undergone some significant climatic changes in recent years. In 2005, a drought in Amazonia, the Amazon region, led the region to suffer its lowest volume of rainfall in almost a half century. In a country generally free of climatic anomalies, Hurricane Katrina seriously damaged agricultural producers and left hundreds of families defenseless in the south of the country in 2004. And the highest temperature recorded in Brazilian history was registered in 2005 in Bom Jesús in the state of Piauí in northern Brazil where thermometers registered 44.6 degrees Celsius [almost 113 degrees Fahrenheit].

These changes in the climate have already had a negative impact on Brazil’s economy. One example is the effect on soy production. Production of the crop dropped by more than 10% last year compared with 2005 because the climate was so dry. But the effects of this decline go further than direct damage to the country’s finances. “Soy is important for various food chains of domestic animals in Brazil. The grain acts as a base for foods eaten by birds and pigs. In addition, it represents an alternative to traditional fuel because it is a raw material for manufacturing a type of bio-diesel,” says Daniel Bacchi, an economist at CEPEA/ESALQ, the Center for Advanced Applied Economic Studies at the Luis de Queiroz College of Agriculture in the State of Sấo Paulo.

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Ricardo, you ask Chinese to exchange money for food from Brazil! Are you nut? part 2
written by Tom Lloyds, August 13, 2009

Bacchi explains that both internal demand and export volumes of this product have been damaged by the decline in productivity, which has led to higher prices. “The direct consequences of the drop in soy production will show up not only in internal consumption but also in the trade balance,” he says. The decline in agricultural profits, which are responsible for 25% of Brazil’s GDP, could one day lead to a decline of as much as 10% of the country’s total output.

Some Brazilian researchers are trying to evaluate in detail the damage that the agricultural sector will suffer if temperatures continue to rise. To achieve that goal, CEPAGRI/UNICAMP, the center for research into the impact of climate change on agriculture at the State University of Campinas, has completed a study that analyzes various regions of the country in terms of climatic risk to five main crops: coffee, rice, beans, corn and soy. “Using this analysis, we know exactly what, when and where we can plant without producing any damage to the climate,” says Milton Silveira Pinto, associate director and research coordinator of CEPAGRI.

Researchers at UNICAMP and EMBRAPA (The Brazilian Agricultural and Fishing Research Company) have evaluated those regions that would be most suitable for planting various crops if temperatures were to increase by 1.4 degrees Celsius; or 3 degrees; or 5.8 degrees. “This is a biological problem,” says Silveira Pinto. “Plants stop the photosynthesis process when temperatures are above 40 degrees Celsius [104 degrees Fahrenheit]. For example, coffee is more sensitive to heat, and it cannot be grown in areas where the temperature exceeds 36 degrees Celsius. What we do is to study in which areas global warming would mean that temperatures exceed the limits of each one of these products, leading to a decline in production,” he adds.

In the worst case scenario, the study shows that the principal grain crops grown in Brazil could decline by 50% over the next century. Coffee, a sector responsible for five percent of Brazil’s agricultural business, would suffer the most damage, a 90% decline in production. According to Silveira Pinto, that product would no longer exist forever in traditional areas of cultivation in western Sấo Paulo State, the country’s most productive area. It would be produced only in Paraná and Río Grande del Sur, two southern regions that have more pleasant temperatures. “Even if there is only an increase of one degree Celsius, the damage produced by the decline in coffee production would reach $600 million. Some people say that that this most optimistic view is irreversible and that it will happen in the short term; that is, in 10 to 15 years,” says Silveira Pino. “Soy beans, a product where exports added up to $8.8 billion between January and November 2006, would be the product that suffers the second greatest damage because of global warming. The reduction in its crop will vary from between 10% and 64%,” he adds.

For his part, Jurandir Zullo, director of CEPAGRI, is certain that “if the forecasts of the IPCC turn out to be true, not one of our main crops will benefit. That’s why it is important for us to be prepared.” Zullo notes that the study of global warming takes two situations into account. “The first line [of thought] evaluates if climate changes are really happening. The second considers what is going to happen with Brazilian agriculture if there are changes, and what impact that will have on efforts to stay profitable.”

The first studies to divide up the climate zones of Brazil date back to the middle of the 1990s. Beginning in 1996, they became part of public policy. Analysis of the zones becomes a prerequisite for the rural financing and security programs of the Ministry of Agriculture. When global climate change became more obvious, beginning in 1999, the second stage in the process kicked in, confirming the transformations and their impact on agricultural activity. “We were analyzing the changes from the viewpoint of rainfall measurements but we did not make any great discoveries,” says Eduardo Assad, research coordinator and director of EMBRAPA Informatica, [which studies the agricultural and fishing sectors]. “Maybe that is because rain is a random climatic phenomenon, and it is accurately measured. In 2000, we changed our focus and moved into observing temperature changes that were becoming more and more obvious. People are still not aware that these changes are occurring and that the only way to prepare [for them] is to invest in public policies and research. With this project, we manage to forecast and propose solutions that will reduce the probable loss of 70% of Brazil’s agricultural area,” he said.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 14, 2009

Tom,

I would not pay much attention to the piece that you posted on this web site about global warming and Brazil. The source of that material is some British organization with some kind of agenda.

Here is the source of your article about Global Warming and Brazil.

That is why you left out the source of your information.


Global Warming and its Impact on Brazilian Agriculture - 2008-01-08
http://www.exduco.net/news.php?id=2799


Here is the source of your article:

What is Exduco?

Exduco is the meeting point for students and graduate schools and is dedicated


* to be the first point of reference for candidate students looking for a graduate school program.

* to provide recruiters with a reliable platform to meet their target students.


Exduco Graduate Studies Guide is the printed publication for graduate studies. 100.000 copies are distributed in more than 30 countries, free to prospective students.

Exduco.net is the most updated and easy-to-use website, with 12.000 monthly visitors, providing schools many ways to communicate their message to the world.

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*****


Somehow that article was posted on the Exduco web site, but here is the actual people behind that article.

In a Nutshell: Basically this study was funded by a British organization that was established in 2003 to support the UK Government’s international goals.

The study by INPE cost about 800,000 reais. It was financed by the Global Opportunity Fund (UK).

http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/about...rogr-fund/

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Ricardo, you ask Chinese to exchange money for food from Brazil! Are you nut? part 3
written by Tom Lloyds, August 14, 2009

You cannot believe a British funded research! How about a Brazilian funded research as reported below. You can say that well, they use a British model to predict the result. British cannot be trusted!

When can you get you head out of the sand such that you can face the nonsense that you have posted!

Tom Lloyds


-----------------------------------------------------

Global warming to 'change face of Brazilian farming'

Catarina Chagas

27 August 2008 | EN | ES


Flickr/fulviobpm

[RIO DE JANEIRO] Brazil's agriculture could be severely affected by climate change, with soya hardest hit by rising temperatures, report Brazilian scientists.

They based their projections on climate models developed by the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

The researchers considered two possible scenarios for the future: an optimistic one, with a 1.4–3.8 degrees Celsius temperature rise by 2100, and a pessimistic one, with a rise from 2–5.4 degrees Celsius.

They modelled the impact of such temperatures on agricultural land and their effect on Brazil's nine most important crops — cotton, rice, coffee, sugar cane, beans, sunflower, cassava, maize and soya.

Under the most optimistic scenario, by 2020, six of Brazil's food crops — rice, coffee, beans, cassava, maize and soya — could have dropped in value by a total of 6.7 billion Brazilian reals (US$4 billion).

The rise in temperature will increase the loss of water through evaporation from soil and plant transpiration, reducing crop-growing areas particularly in northeast Brazil.

Soya will be the most threatened, with land suitable for soya cultivation predicted to drop by about 20 per cent by 2020 and 40 per cent by 2070, even under the optimistic scenario.

But sugar cane cultivation could double in a few decades because of the crops' ability to adapt to higher temperatures and increases in carbon dioxide.

"Sugar cane plantations will benefit with future scenarios, increasing ethanol production. However, essential crops for the internal market and population nutrition will suffer, bringing a high social cost," Hilton Silveira Pinto, one of the report's authors and a senior researcher at the State University of Campinas (Unicamp), told SciDev.Net.

He adds that the most pessimistic scenario will only be realised if there are no efforts to mitigate climate change and minimise the impact of rising temperatures by modifying production techniques.

Suggestions to minimise impacts include better use of soil by alternating grazing and planting land, encouraging the production of crop varieties adapted to drought and genetic improvement of plants.

The report was released this month (11 August) by the Unicamp, the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, and the Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies.

The researchers will now analyse the impact of global warming on other crops and livestock, and social impacts from the change in agriculture. A new report will be released in 2009.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 14, 2009

Tom,

You are quoting the same person (Hilton Silveira Pinto) who is working for that British organization that created that report that you quoted.

I don't know what is the hidden agenda of these people, but wherever it is you can bet they are not in favor of Brazil.

Please came up with some more reliable source for your information, since these researchers that are working for the British are just giving the information that they got paid to produce it.

Here is how work some of these grants: you want the money to do your research then here is the conclusions that we want you to come up with with this grant money.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 14, 2009

I have news for you.

If there is the remote possibility of these estimates to come to past in Brazil - I want to remind you that at the same time the situation would be a lot worse in countries such as China, India, Australia, the United States, and most of Africa.

If that scenery develops in Brazil then you can bet the other countries would be in a lot worse shape than Brazil.

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Ricardo, you ask Chinese to exchange money for food from Brazil! Are you nut? part 4
written by Tom Lloyds, August 16, 2009

Your reply shows that you are brain dead! You not only cannot learn but also cannot think! You are a person looking at today and yesterday and cannot look forward to the future.

You have pointed out that the glaciers in China aree melting fast. Why? It is because of global warming. It is common sense. Therefore your previous post has agreed on global warming. Now, you say that it is “There is the remote possibility of these estimates to come to past in Brazil”. Brazil is so special in your eye!

Why will happen to the crop yield as the temperature rises? Can you read the following article: Tropical agriculture and global warming: impacts and mitigation options. It is written by Carlos Eduardo P. Cerri ; Gerd Sparovek; Martial Bernoux; Willian E. Easterling; Jerry M. Melillo; Carlos Clemente Cerri. http://www.scielo.br/scielo.ph...ci_arttext

The article has many references on this subject. I do not think that all the articles were written to serve the need of the British Organization which you have opinion. Please pay attention to figure 2 which shows the relationship of crop yield with the rise of temperature. The curve was obtained by the average of 13 models developed by 13 authors. Well, did all the 13 authors serve the request of the British?

Brazil is running into trouble. I do not think that Chinese needs Brazil’s help.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 17, 2009

Ricardo: The paper that you mentioned on the above posting was placed on a virtual library managed by Scielo.

You can write a paper yourself on Global Warming and add to that virtual library.

I did check the paper that you mentioned and I realized right way that they used on their research to write that paper the information that was compiled before 1981, and 1988. Translation = information obsolete.

I know that you will not understand even in one thousand years the connection between underground freshwater and agriculture.

Many parts of the United States are using all its underground water. China is doing the same thing in the areas that are very important for agriculture today.

Brazil has enough underground water to supply fresh underground water for the entire world for about 200 years.

Underground water is not as affected by global warming as surface water which is a very small percentage of the total supply of freshwater anyway.

The main agriculture areas of Brazil have a massive amount of available underground water on these areas.

I guess you don't have a clue about what is going on in Brazil about agriculture.

I went to a seminar in New York City about 2 years ago and I learned a lot about what is happening in Brazil regarding agriculture and the major advancements in technology and so forth.

Brazil is just starting with major breakthroughs in agriculture technology - and in the future these breakthroughs are going to improve the way agriculture is done in Brazil even more.

Again your mindset is frozen in the past, and you believe that the future will be the same as the past – on your mindset there is no room for agricultural technological advances.

I have no doubt that agriculture will improve many times in Brazil over in the coming decades.

It does not matter if the Chinese have foresight or not regarding food production. At the end of the day I am sure that Brazil will have plenty of food supply to sell around the world and China will be only one of the potential buyers.

There will be a lot of demand around the world for the extra supply of food produced in Brazil - and China will be among one of these countries competing to get some of these food supply from Brazil.

Brazil will be the country with the extra food supply in the future, and China will be the country with the food shortage. There is no two ways about it. You can bet on that.

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Ricardo, you ask Chinese to exchange money for food from Brazil! Are you nut? part 5
written by Tom Lloyds, August 17, 2009

Ricardo: “The paper that you mentioned on the above posting was placed on a virtual library managed by Scielo.

You can write a paper yourself on Global Warming and add to that virtual library.”

Tom:”What? No wonder that you could not finish your Ph.D. I understand now! Nowadays, even the most prestige journal is published on the Internet. Everyone can access the paper through the virtual library. This journal contains a quite extensive editorial broad.”

Ricardo:” I did check the paper that you mentioned and I realized right way that they used on their research to write that paper the information that was compiled before 1981, and 1988. Translation = information obsolete.”

Tom:”Are you blind? The reference papers cited in this paper were written from 1981 to 2006. Usually, some classic papers were written long time ago and are still sited by others. Years of writing have no correlation with the quality. No wonder that you could not finish your Ph.D!”

Ricardo:” I know that you will not understand even in one thousand years the connection between underground freshwater and agriculture.

Many parts of the United States are using all its underground water. China is doing the same thing in the areas that are very important for agriculture today.

Brazil has enough underground water to supply fresh underground water for the entire world for about 200 years.

Underground water is not as affected by global warming as surface water which is a very small percentage of the total supply of freshwater anyway.

The main agriculture areas of Brazil have a massive amount of available underground water on these areas.”

Tom: ”When can stop fooling people? The crop yield drops because of the effect on photosynthesis upon the rise of temperate. It is not deal to the shortage of water.”


You should stop posting junk! You are wasting everyone’s time!!!!!

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A warning to the Chinese
written by Tom Lloyds, August 17, 2009

This New Asian Currency is just like a Trojan horse for Brazil to put their financial burden to the Chinese. Brazil is heading toward trouble on global warming. If I were the Chinese, I would put the money in Canada. Canada is a country which is benefit to global warming. North pole is melting. Canada is getting warming and the cultivating land area is increasing. Most of the fresh water is frozen in Canada. That means, the food production capacity in Canada is increasing on global warming.

Also, the distance between the nearest ports in China and Canada is the shortest. Brazil is far away. As the price of oil rises, no one wishes to pay the huge transportation cost from Brazil.

Canadian government is relatively clean while Brazil cannot even put their corrupted officials in jail. Canada has advanced technology while Brazil is still dreaming it. Canada has excellent green technology while Brazil has none. Chinese is the largest minority ethic group in Canada. Quite a lot of Chinese is working in the Canadian government. It is much easily to communicate. Brazil may have some Chinese working in the restaurant.

Just forget Brazil and put your bet in Canada!

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 17, 2009

When you lose an argument you act just like a little boy.

I never said anything against China investing in Canada.

Canada is a real nice country with a lot of natural resources and a very small population.

The Chinese should invest in Canada, since Canada offers great investment opportunities.

I have no idea how your thinking process works – if works at all – for you the choices for Chinese investment are:

1) The USA or Brazil

2) The USA or Canada

It seems to me that you believe that China should invest in only one country at the time.

You said: “Brazil may have some Chinese working in the restaurant.”

By the way, the Chinese restaurants are very good, and I love Chinese food.

Besides restaurants they also have pastelarias – these pastelarias sell pastel and caldo de cana – por sinal pastel com caldo de cana e uma delicia.

You also said: “Just forget Brazil and put your bet in Canada!”

That is a very bad investment advice.

Never place all your eggs in one basket.

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Ricardo, you ask Chinese to exchange money for food from Brazil! Are you nut? part 6
written by Tom Lloyds, August 18, 2009

Ricardo: You are a really rude person. You put the words which I have not said into my mouth! Have I suggest whether China should invest or not invest in USA? Have I said that you are against China investing in Canada?

What I have said are as follows:

1. Ricardo: You should stop posting junks!
2. Based on what Ricardo has presented, China should not give Brazil any money.
3. Based on what Ricardo has presented, China should not allow Brazil to adopt the New Asian Currency!

Have I lost an argument? Are you nut?

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 18, 2009

Ricardo: I just posted an update regarding my article:

“Why Brazilians Should Demand the Renationalization of Petrobras”
http://www.brazzil.com/article...obras.html


Please Tom Lloyds feel free to go berserk over all that information.

If you don’t know what berserk means then check it out at:

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/berserk

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 20, 2009

Part 1 of 2


Ricardo C. Amaral: This kind of reality check is what is foreign and missing in any of Tom Lloyds’ analysis about Brazil - regarding just about everything. His mindset does not give any room to future technological advances, since he thinks in static terms.

Here is another example of Brazilian leading edge know-how. In many ways Brazil already has in place the IT of the future.

Brazil has a state-of-the-art national integrated voting system in tune with the 21st century as compared with the United States that still has a good presidential election voting system that is in tune at best with the late 20th century.


*****


“IBM Bets on Brazilian Innovation” - Big Blue's new initiative to stimulate development of Brazil's nascent tech industry is the latest sign of the country's rising power
By Spencer E. Ante
Business Week
August 17, 2009

Over the last few years, China and India have emerged as the twin hot spots of emerging tech innovation. Now IBM (IBM) is betting that one of the next big technology stars will be Brazil.

In the latest sign of Brazil's rising power, Big Blue is announcing on Aug. 18 a new initiative to stimulate the development of the country's technology sector. To kick off the effort, IBM is hosting its first-ever forum for venture capitalists and entrepreneurs in São Paulo along with FINEP, the Brazilian government agency that finances technology development. The daylong event will bring together more than 100 investors and dozens of new companies looking for investment and business advice.

IBM is also launching a Portuguese version of its developerWorks Web site, which provides free programs and online teaching guides that help programmers build skills in the Java programming language, the Linux operating system, and IBM products such as Lotus. To host the event, IBM has dispatched Claudia Fan Munce, managing director of IBM Venture Capital Group, and Steve Mills, senior vice-president and group executive of IBM's $20 billion Software Group, a clear sign of the growing importance of Brazil to the IBM portfolio.

"We have been watching Brazil for a while," says Munce, who grew up in Brazil. "The time is right."

Eyeing Opportunity

In the past, Brazil has been hobbled by hyperinflation, rampant political corruption, and failed fiscal and monetary policies. But with a growing and stable economy in recent years, multinational corporations such as IBM and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and venture capital and private equity players now see additional opportunity for technology innovation in the sun-drenched nation. "That potential is there," says Mills. "The university systems are strong. There is a level of interest in entrepreneurship that is growing."

Investors increasingly see Brazil as an attractive destination. As of the end of 2008 nearly 150 local and foreign investment firms had committed $28 billion in venture and private equity capital to Brazilian companies, according to the Brazilian Association for Private Equity & Venture Capital. That's up from $6 billion in 2004, amounting to a hearty 50% compound annual growth rate over the last four years. Investors have financed 500 Brazilian companies to date with venture or private equity capital, and there's $12 billion left to invest over the next few years from that $28 billion kitty.

Still, the country's business challenges, including high taxes and restrictive labor laws, could hamper growth. And native businesspeople say a Silicon Valley-like ecosystem where risk and creative thinking in technology are the norm remains elusive. "We do not have an ecosystem in place," says Berthier Ribiero-Neto, head of Google's (GOOG) Latin American research and development center, which is based in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. "Most of the students go to work for the outsourcing companies. I would like to see more product development."

The IBM initiative is designed to help remedy some of those issues. The idea is to serve as a matchmaker and coach to the growing number of companies IBM works with in Brazil. In fact, IBM's Munce says that among the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), Brazil is seeing the highest growth in business partners that IBM works with, averaging 150% year over year.

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Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 20, 2009

Part 2 of 2


Tapping into Brazil

To help its partners raise money, IBM will introduce them to dozens of local and foreign private investors at the forum, including Intel Capital, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, Rio Bravo, and Darby Overseas Investments. And to design, build, and market new technologies for their businesses, IBM will invite its several thousand Brazilian business partners to visit its Innovation Center in São Paulo, which opened in February. At the center, entrepreneurs can gain access to training courses, consulting services, and technical seminars. "The center will help us tap into this huge growth market," says Munce.

Humberto Matsuda, founding partner with Performa Investimentos, a new Brazilian venture capital firm, says the IBM forum is a significant event for his country. "We are very excited to see how IBM will become a player in this industry," says Matsuda, who is closing an $8 million fund, with 40% of its capital coming from FINEP. "It is a very significant event, given the size of the players."

Matsuda, who helped IBM draw up a list of companies to invite to the forum, says startups have been hobbled in the recent past by a lack of capital and experienced entrepreneurs. But he says the IBM event is important because it will help foster more investment, training, and networking in the technology community. "They will make introductions to potential clients and offer training and services," says Matsuda. "You have to use a key player like IBM to teach companies."

http://www.businessweek.com/te...998497.htm


Comment section following the article at the Business Week website.

Henry Johns
Aug 18, 2009 8:24 PM GMT

Not sure why this writer would call the Brazilian IT industry "nascent," which means coming or having recently come into existence. Brazil has one of the largest IT industries in the world. The Brazilian IT industry built one of the most advanced banking systems in the world, a java-based national health care system and national voting system. They support not only large government systems but also the transportation system for a country as large as the U.S., an automobile industry, jet manufacturing, petro industry, mining, and more.

This is not a poor developing country that needs the help of IBM. If Brazil is not careful the cash rich Indian and multi-national outsourcing companies will buy the best of their industry.

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A suggestion to Ricardo
written by Tom Lloyds, August 28, 2009

I am waiting for your article entitled:


"It is smart for Chinese to invest 5000 billions in Brazil in exchange of computer programs" written by Ricardo C. Amaral

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“New Asian Currency” has taken a big leap forward.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 31, 2009

August 31, 2009

Now that Japan has elected yesterday a Prime Minister and a new government that is in favor of creating a “New Asian Currency” – there is no more excuses for China.

It is up to China now to get the ball rolling and get this show on the road – and make it a reality.

With the results of the yesterday's election in Japan the creation of a “New Asian Currency” has taken a big leap forward.

And I hope the leaders of the Chinese government are aware of that fact.

Now it is time for action, and the time for just talking is over!!!!

Ricardo C. Amaral


*****


Brazil, China and the “New Asian Currency”
By: Ricardo Amaral | Jul 9, 2009
http://www.rgemonitor.com/emer...n_currency


From the comments section of that article:

August 12, 2009

Ricardo C. Amaral: Even the Japanese are starting to wake up. Let me translate for you what they mean by: “regional currency union”

“Regional currency union” = “New Asian Currency.”

This article was published on the front page of the Financial Times (UK).


*****


“Japanese poll leader in attack on 'US-led market fundamentalism'”
By Mure Dickie in Tokyo
Financial Times (UK)
Published: August 11, 2009

Yukio Hatoyama, the leader of Japan's opposition Democratic party who is strongly placed to become prime minister after elections this month, has condemned "US-led market fundamentalism" and vowed to shield his nation from the effects of untrammelled globalisation.

With the era of US unilateralism ending and worries about the dollar's future role growing, Japan should also work towards regional currency union and political integration in an "east Asian community", Mr Hatoyama wrote in an essay published yesterday in the Japanese magazine Voice…

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EU-style community Part 1 of 2
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, October 24, 2009

Part 1 of 2


October 24, 2009

Ricardo: Why it is taking so long for China, Japan, India, South Korea, and other Asian countries to grasp that it is time to create an Asian Union similar to the European Union – and create immediately a “New Asian Currency”?

The “New Asian Currency” almost overnight would become as powerful as the US dollar, and the euro – and would split the international monetary system into 3 solid major foreign reserve currencies.

Then according to each country’s long-term self-interests they would adopt one of these currencies such as Brazil would adopt the “New Asian Currency” – Russia would adopt the euro – and Mexico and Canada probably would adopt the US dollar.

The Gulf states still could create the Gulf currency and become a 4th option.

I wonder why it takes so long for intelligent people to grasp the obvious international monetary solution for the coming years?

Last Tuesday, October 20, 2009 the Financial Times (UK) published an article “ Why the euro is not the next global currency” by Jean Pisani-Ferry and Adam Posen.

The article said: “The explosion of debate on the demise of the dollar has been instructive, though vastly premature. What is striking, however, is the absence of the euro from talk of alternatives as the global currency.

…This should have been the euro’s moment. It is already the second global currency…”

I wonder why these guys think that if the role of the US dollar is diminished as a reserve currency it has to be replaced by another currency such as the euro and become the new international monetary system based on the euro.

Why these guys think that the global economy could not function under a system based on 3 or 4 major international currencies such as the euro (30 %), the US dollar (30 %), the Gulf currency (10 %), and the “New Asian Currency” (30 %)?

Why these guys can’t grasp that the world is splitting at least into 3 major trading blocks such as:

1) North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) including USA, Mexico, and Canada. These countries would be under the US dollar.

2) European Union under the euro.

3) Asian Union under the “New Asian Currency”.

Why many US economists keep saying that there’s nothing out there to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency?

Because they want to keep the old international monetary game going on as long as they can, since that game gives an advantage for the United States in the international monetary game – If the US dollar is no longer the only game in town that would force the US government to put its economic and financial house in other.

The truth is there is nothing set in stone regarding an international monetary system based on the US dollar.

Americans don’t want to lose the US dollar special status as a global currency and as far as they are concerned the time to change the international monetary system it will be never – and they will fight to convince the rest of the world that the world can’t function if the US dollar is not the major reserve currency.

I don’t know why at this point of their economic development China and Japan want to continue playing 3rd fiddler in the international monetary system when they are ready to combine forces and together they can start playing 1st fiddler?

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EU-style community Part 2 of 2
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, October 24, 2009

Part 2 of 2


“Asian nations look to 'lead world'”
By Danny Kemp (AFP) – 47 minutes ago
Saturday, October 24, 2009
AFP Worldwide News Agency

HUA HIN, Thailand — Asian nations discussed plans at a major summit Saturday to "lead the world" by boosting economic and political cooperation and possibly forming an EU-style community.

The prime ministers of regional giants China and India also looked to foster unity on the sidelines of the summit in Thailand after months of trading barbs over long-standing territorial issues.

But nuclear-armed North Korea and military-ruled Myanmar were also set to top the agenda in the royal beach resort of Hua Hin, underscoring the challenges still facing the region.

The summit groups the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with regional partners China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.

Japan's new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said a proposed East Asian community involving all 16 countries should aspire to take a leading role as the region makes an early rebound from the global economic crisis.

"It would be meaningful for us to have the aspiration that East Asia is going to lead the world and with the various countries with different regimes cooperating with each other towards that perspective," Hatoyama, who took office last month, told the Bangkok Post newspaper.

He described Japan's alliance with the United States as the cornerstone of its foreign policy, but said the region should "try to reduce as much as possible the gaps, the disparities that exist amongst the Asian countries".

China would "doubtless" grow further, particularly economically, "but I do not necessarily regard that as a threat," Hatoyama said.

Officials said separately that East Asian nations would carry out a feasibility study for a huge free trade zone covering ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea and a larger group involving India, Australia and New Zealand.

Increased integration has been a recurring theme of the meetings in Thailand, as the rapidly changing region seeks to capitalise on the fact that it has recovered more quickly from the recession than the West.

ASEAN leaders have been discussing plans to create their own political and economic community by 2015.

…Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh held "productive" talks on the sidelines of the summit Saturday but did not discuss their spat over territorial issues, officials said.

…The leaders are expected to sign a host of agreements this weekend on economic and other issues including climate change, disaster management, communications and food security in the rapidly changing region.

http://www.google.com/hostedne...jGVPPFCULQ


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Ricardo!
written by Tom Lloyds, October 29, 2009

Ricardo: Why these guys can’t grasp that the world is splitting at least into 3 major trading blocks such as:

1) North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) including USA, Mexico, and Canada. These countries would be under the US dollar.

Tom: It shows that your brain cannot handle anything more than your hole (home) at New Jersey. You wish Brazil to steal money from China by urging Chinese to adapt that New Asian Currency! Now you urge Canada to adapt US dollar and let American to steal money from the rich Canadian. The Canadians are proud of their money. They have no desire to use US dollar. As you said, US dollar is going to die! Right? You wish the Canadian to die with the US dollar!

You do this simply because you are living in US and is trying to survive. Are you out of health insurance and social insurance? Canadians have good health coverage and have strong Canadian dollar. You are welcome to apply to immigrate to Canada but it is not that easy to get a visa!

Why don't you go back to Brazil to eat the good food and drink tons of Brazilian water as Brazil has too much. Why do still stay in US to eat junk food and drink Cola?

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Currency trading
written by Eliot, May 05, 2012

The new trend on Asian currency is looking interesting to get idea on making trade with such pairs..
http://www.forexrobotreview.com/

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