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 The manner in which the PSDB went about choosing its presidential candidate, Geraldo Alckmin, belies any claim that it is a democratic party which has Brazil's interests in mind. By allowing the weaker candidate to impose himself, the party leadership has also put its judgment in doubt.
The process was overseen by a tiny band of individuals - Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Aécio Neves and Tasso Jereissati - without any formal consultation with the ordinary members of the party. On top of this, the voters of São Paulo may find that their mayor, José Serra, will shortly be standing down to contest the state governorship in order to keep it in the PSDB's hands. The selection process was marked by in-fighting between Alckmin and Serra supporters and muddled leadership by the selection committee. Serra did not even appear at the ceremony announcing Alckmin's candidature on March 14. Although the word "unity" was used a lot, there was not much of it on display on what should have been a momentous occasion. The atmosphere was more relief that a decision had finally been taken than a feeling that the right decision had been made. Lost Cause? If politics is about winning power then the decision to choose Alckmin is baffling since he has lagged well behind Serra in opinion polls against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. A poll published the day after the announcement gave Lula 43% of the vote against 19% for Alckmin. This compares with 40% for Lula and 31% for Serra. These polls were obviously carried out before the PSDB decision was made and Alckmin's ratings will probably rise as he becomes better known nationally and the campaign begins in earnest. However, he faces an enormous task and, if Lula decides to seek re-election in October, it looks as though Alckmin is about to lead the party to defeat. Should this happen then the PSDB will have wasted many advantages it has. These include an impressive team of seven state governors, 875 mayors, 15 senators, 64 members of the House of Representatives and Fernando Henrique Cardoso as the national president. Cardoso ruled Brazil for eight years and brought the stability needed after two decades of military rule and a shaky start to democracy in which one president died before assuming office and another resigned as he was about to be impeached. The PSDB has also failed to capitalize on the "bribes for votes" scandal, known as the "mensalão", which has destroyed any idea that the Workers Party (PT) had higher ethical standards than the others. Despite the damaging revelations, which have led to the downfall of most of the PT's leaders, neither the PSDB nor its ally, the PFL, has seized the initiative. After all that has happened, the presidency should be in the bag for the PSDB. Instead we are heading for an election which will pit a weakened PT with a strong candidate against a divided PSDB with a weak candidate. We have already discussed the relative merits of Alckmin and Serra (see my article "Alckmin the Hare Takes on Serra the Tortoise" www.brazilpoliticalcomment.com.br) as candidates and will not repeat this aspect. Let us look instead at how the PSDB has blown this opportunity to regain power. Both Alckmin and Serra must take a lot of the blame. Alckmin pushed the party into a "him or me" decision while Serra was indecisive and arrogant, expecting the nomination to be his by right. The troika of decision-makers did not seem to know what to do and dithered publicly about when a decision should be made and whether or not there should be American-style primaries. They were initially reported to favor Serra but, faced with Alckmin's stubbornness, backed down and eventually let the two rivals sort it out between themselves. Faced with Alckmin's refusal to back off, Serra gave way. Using the Electorate as Pawns To make things worse and show how politicians in Brazil think the electorate exists to serve them and not vice versa, the PSDB is now seriously considering making Serra its candidate for the state governorship. This is opportunism of the worst kind. Had Serra won the presidential nomination he would have had to backtrack on an electoral pledge not to resign as mayor. However, he could probably have done so without antagonizing too many voters since he is one of the few heavyweight politicians with national recognition. Serra could have justified aiming for the presidency for the sake of the nation but to abandon the voters of São Paulo to seek the governorship of the state for the sake of the PSDB would be hypocrisy. Serra still has almost three years of his mandate as mayor to run. At the same time, there are also reports that should Alckmin win the presidency, he will step down after a single term. This would presumably give Serra the chance to stand or, more likely, give the nomination to Aécio Neves, the governor of Minas Gerais, and a member of the PSDB selection committee. In other words, "You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours". This carving up of national power between São Paulo and Minas Gerais recalls the "café com leite" (the coffee being São Paulo and the milk Minas Gerais) alliance of these two states, which has exercised enormous influence on Brazilian politics since the end of the monarchy. It will not go down well in other parts of this huge country. John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish writer and consultant with long experience of Brazil. He is based in São Paulo and runs his own company Celtic Comunicações. This article originally appeared on his site www.brazilpoliticalcomment.com.br. He can be contacted at jf@celt.com.br. © John Fitzpatrick 2006
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