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 It’s on, with a fixed term, the honeymoon for the elected on October 30, in 43 cities where runoff elections were carried out. Since October 3, the 5,549 mayors selected in the first ballot have enjoyed such an interlude, in peace with life and their sleep.
They’d better make good use of it, because, starting January 1, a new wear and tear season will get under way, expected to end in four years.
There won’t be even a single mayor who, at the outset of his administration, will not collect the fruits and flowers of voters’ frustrations, and, naturally, his opponent’s as well. Many will not make it through the first two years.
Rescue Operation
That being the case… Well, that being the case, it’s foolish to imagine that the unequivocal victory of the Workers Party’s enemies will represent a decisive factor, capable of weighing in on the presidential election and other ballot votes scheduled for 2006.
Of course it came as a big blow, to the Workers Party, losing in Porto Alegre, Florianópolis, Curitiba, São Paulo, Rio, and dozens of other major cities, capitals or not.
President Lula’s administration will need to employ certain course adjustments, since even the Workers Party’s victories in Fortaleza and Vitória, for example, will not be quite reflective of the same party in Brasília.
The new mayors will soon undergo the process of wearing down. 2006 will be a different scenario, in case President Lula is successful in the second half of his term in office, making it evident that success was not possible in the first half due to the loss of ground in big cities and capitals.
The effective economic recovery, the true creation of millions of jobs, the clearing of overburdening fiscal policies that impact our companies, lower interest rates in real terms, infrastructure investments, and the execution of social programs—all that will make the recent municipal elections seem like shadows of a distant past, within two years.
The greatest lesson ministered to the government by the latest ballot was that arrogance, presumption, and exclusive ownership of the truth must be replaced by humility, economic model changes, and effective alliances. Alone, the Workers Party will have a hard time obtaining a second presidential mandate.
The tough part is knowing how much this rescue operation will cost, because the rivaling parties (the Liberal Front, the Social Democracy, the Labor, the Populist, the Socialist, and even the Communist Party among others) are all writing up their invoices.
They demand participation, favors, nominations, and above all, love and attention. If the government can afford such items, especially the last two, it will escape the fire without casualties or much injury. Otherwise…
Cruel Diagnosis
In the sea of explanations emerging over the defeats incurred by the Workers Party in traditional centers such as Porto Alegre, São Paulo, Curitiba, and Rio, comes to light a diagnosis that is as harsh and stinging as it is true.
The losing candidate in the gaúcha (pertains to anyone or thing from the Rio Grande do Sul state) capital, Raul Pont, had the guts to stick the finger in the wound and say: “the Workers Party lost due to the frustration amidst a significant portion of the population who voted for Lula in 2002.”
He cited retirees, workers making the minimum wage salary, the middle class, and even bank employees and groups and segments disillusioned with the current administration. Not even his comrade installed at the presidential office was spared, who by his own analysis abandoned the workers soon after being sworn in.
Pont’s unloading of frustration was cruel, recognizing that “we have lost our identity”, but sincere in inquiring: “On which side are we?”
While many in the media seek to spare Lula’s administration, stressing that he has nothing to do with the elections outcome, finally someone—from the ruling party—comes forth, daring to break away from conformity.
The responsibility of the economic policy cannot be buffered while listening to the noise streaming out of voting booths.
The electorate isn’t dumb, especially in the highly politicized capitals in question. A message was sent to those in power. If they wish, the warning light has been lit at the crossroad on the steps of the Presidential Palace.
Few changes, or no changes, are translated into votes, or in other words, the lack of votes necessary to elect Pont, Marta, Vanhoni, and Bittar, among others.
Truth beknownst, the Workers Party won in Belo Horizonte, Recife, Fortaleza, and Vitória, considered important capitals, besides Aracaju, Palmas, Macapá, Rio Branco, and Porto Velho, of lesser electoral weight; it is also evident that the ruling party came up short in the more industrial regions of the country.
The reason is obvious and worthy of attention, because if nothing changes and the President loses reelection, two years from now, the most profound political experience of the last decades will have come to an end, which is a government run by workers.
Generations will go by before a new attempt, and who knows in whose hands and of which party affiliation.
Conservative Defeat, with Exceptions
Precise diagnosis was also made available by Senator Jefferson Perez, from the Labor Democratic Party (PDT) of the state of Amazonas, a likely future national president of the party founded by Leonel Brizola.
The congressman from Amazonas came to the conclusion that conservatives were the biggest losers in the municipal elections, with the usual exceptions.
In his state, comes to an end the oligarchy led by the duo Amazonino Mendes-Gilberto Mestrinho; both, on many instances, held control of the state and the capital, Manaus.
Multiply the results all through other states, despite, for example, Goiânia, where Iris Resende came out successful.
Another consideration by Perez is that of a setback in the Workers Party escalation hopes to attain the unique status of national party, an attempt similar to Mexicanizing Brazil.
Had the Workers Party been victorious in the capitals where it lost, and in others, as it had been planned, we would find ourselves in danger by 2006, with an over-dimensioned party, while the others would be in the process of extinction.
It would be the realization of a dream once concocted by former Presidents Fernando Collor and Fernando Henrique Cardoso, whose followers were the establishment in control for thirty or more years.
No doubt that this was the objective of the Workers Party. Or should we say, it still is, but now with a few obstacles, as a result of the recently conducted elections.
Even Lula’s reelection doesn’t seem so certain anymore. Better for democracy, for political renovation, and overcoming tribal politics—concludes the Senator.
Cow and Piranha
São Paulo’s Governor Geraldo Alckmin had better watch out, not just for the haste and adulations with which he was transformed—in a matter of days—into the candidate apparent, consecrated and packaged by the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party), to the Presidential Office, in 2006. Not to mention, obviously, his political and administrative merits.
Evil, malice, and trickery are also part of an orchestrated false “flight takeoff plan” for the next two years, which will lead the toucans (the symbolic bird of the PSDB) to no nest in sight. According to this plan, Alckmin would be the candidate under no victory guarantee.
In case Lula’s administration recovers, successfully carrying out campaign promises, creating jobs and resuming economic growth, chances are low the President will not be reelected. To face up such a strong incumbent, the PSDB would appoint São Paulo’s Governor.
Now, if the administration stays on the neoliberal track, witnessing the rise in unemployment, poverty, and interest rates, the toucan candidate will be another.
In an effort to come out victorious, the seat has already been occupied, and the candidacy defined. Who? Well, He, who else: the sociologist (reference to former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso).
Don’t fool yourselves with commentaries that Cardoso is out of the game, that he is history and it’s time for renewal. Such considerations come from him, himself, and strategists from the financial world.
These are simply smoke screens, maneuvers to derail adversaries and move the former President from the firing line. Thus, they inflate the balloon of the São Paulo’s Governor, easy to be disinflated with the beak of any competent toucan.
The sociologist doesn’t go for rough tackling, but he is well prepared to attack by the flanks, no matter which side, left or right wing. The only thing, though, he will not be crossing the ball over to the center for Alckmin to score a header.
At the proper time, facing only truculent opponents in his way, he will run for centerfield. If allowed, he’ll carry the ball all the way inside the goal posts.
Reshuffling Is Unavoidable
Despite the obvious, and even the necessary denials by aides, a reshuffling is unavoidable by President Lula, restructuring his government team.
He will need to replace some ministers, even if necessary, dismissing some Workers Party officials only to replace them with others from his own party.
Naturally, changes won’t be limited to the Workers Party sphere. His first preoccupation is securing the PMDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party) at the Congressional political base.
They won’t go so far as Minister Amir Lando, of Social Security, to whom party comrades wish to display their value only to reach higher grounds.
Sincere is the move by Rio Grande do Sul’s Governor, Germano Rigotto, who preaches the shift by the PMDB toward an independent position, enabling the party to define its profile and even opening up the way to his own presidential candidacy.
In fact, the gaúcho Governor has already initiated his march to the center. He relies on the sympathy of Santa Catarina’s Governor, Luiz Henrique, and it won’t be so hard for him to make strides into the state of Paraná: Governor Roberto Requião rejects the accusation of being responsible for the defeat of Ângelo Vanhoni, in the head-to-head race for the capital, Curitiba.
The Workers Party should rise up to its mistakes. In São Paulo, the PMDB majority advocates breaking away from the government’s block, starting with the regional President, Michel Temer.
Cooptable, the PMDB has for long been, but, to retain the party’s loyalty, President Lula will need to multiply spaces in the cabinet and neighboring offices.
He’d better not forget the PTB (Brazilian Labor Party), awaiting the promises made after dessert, at a recent dinner with party president Roberto Jefferson.
Segments of the party were one step away—if not from mutiny—at least from boiling.
The PL (Liberal Party), divided, Paulo Maluf’s PP (Populist Party), demanding pay for supporting Marta Suplicy, the PPS (Socialist Popular Party), almost a lost case, the PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party) and the Communist Party of Brazil, uneasy ideologically, all are other obstacles on the road to preserving the official base.
Whoever wants to keep imagining the new cabinet makeup go ahead, or better yet, who goes and who stays…
Carlos Chagas writes for the Rio's daily Tribuna da Imprensa and is a representative of the Brazilian Press Association, in Brasília. He welcomes your comments at carloschagas@hotmail.com.
Translated from the Portuguese by Eduardo Assumpção de Queiroz. He is a freelance translator, with a degree in Business and almost 20 years of experience working in the fields of economics, communications, social and political sciences, and sports. He lives in Boca Raton, FL. His email: eaqus@adelphia.net.
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