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 Nothing new here. Since the Discovery in 1500 Brazil is divided between rich and poor. In the same way, the governments always belonged to the rich, from Brazil Colony to the Empire, from the Old Republic to our days. Incidentally, as during the Getúlio Vargas era, the rich did something for the poor. They did much more for themselves, as a rule, but the inverse situation also occurred during Lula's government: the poor did twice as much for the rich.
You have the banks profits as well as the financial speculation fruits as proof that I'm telling the truth. Although we doubt the current president is poor, because whoever has three apartments, a non-negligible retirement pension and a small investment in the stock market can't be called poor. The reality, however, remains unaffected. We are a country with a wide majority of poor, even of indigents and excluded, controlled by a minority of rich, with less and less room for the so-called middle class. Here lies the drama of nations like ours: neither president Lula from the PT (Workers Party) nor Geraldo Alckmin from the PSDB (Party of the Brazilian Social Democracy) realized the significance of the middle class, with both candidates just trying to coopt it to its own side as a useless appendix to their ambitions. They are ignoring the historical evidence that the middle class usually turns into ammunition for adventures. All we need is an adventurer to come along. Two Moves Ahead Alckmin and his hard campaign nucleus are mistaken if they believe that after president Lula's probable victory, the PSDB, the PFL plus a few smaller parties will form a monolithic block of radical opposition to the new government. The nature of things would follow its course, even if the Institutional Relations Minister Tarso Genro had his arms crossed. And this is not the case. Governors Aécio Neves from Minas Gerais and José Serra from São Paulo have been stressing the need to open a dialogue with the federal government. These are natural channels of understanding. The majority of the new PSDB congressional delegations reject any shooting after the election's results are in. The high command of the PSDB party will repudiated, if it demands unyielding opposition against Lula's future mandate. The same goes for the PFL (Party of the Liberal Front). The liberals will line up in the opposition side, and will not accept any invitation to participate in the government, but this won't prevent them from being open to a dialogue with the government. It might seem odd to discuss this theme now, but to think two moves ahead of the game has always been the best political strategy. Authority Tancredo Neves had just become Minas Gerais governor and was facing his first social crisis. The teachers went on strike, demanding wage hikes above what the state treasury would be able to pay. He yielded as much as he could, but the strike was becoming more and more violent. During a meeting with his aides he was told that if his government did not comply with the strikers' demands the Education Secretariat building would be taken over by the teachers. The Education secretary was getting panicky when the governor reassured him: "It is going to be very good for you if they invade the building..." And completed to a surprised audience: "It is going to be very good because the problem won't be yours anymore but the Security Secretary's. Invasion is something for the police to deal with!". The news leaked and the strikers got quite fast to a settlement, because nobody doubted that the military police would storm and evacuate the building in 15 minutes, if invaded. Why am I telling this story? Because authority is to be imposed. It seems that the landless are preparing to invade public buildings, after Lula's probable victory is announced... Last Round After the show of "enxugar gelo" (drying up ice - doing something repetitive and useless) carried out by both candidates, in the Record TV network debate, Lula and Alckmin still will have their last squabble on Globo TV this Friday. Since it's the last one and it will be shown in a network that is leader in audience we should expect something new in this circus of the obvious. There are those who are betting on an unrelenting temperature increase, and even under-the-belt blows. Alckmin aides are recommending that he plays all his cards denouncing the Workers Party's scandals. He shouldn't spare ministers, former ministers and even Lula's relatives, they say. They remark that the president has been showing his short temper and that he might be taken by surprise. On the other side, Lula's aides are telling him not to fall in this trap. The victim role he has assumed has been working up to now, but nobody guarantees that it will work on the last round. Carlos Chagas writes for the Rio's daily Tribuna da Imprensa and is a representative of the Brazilian Press Association, in Brasília. He welcomes your comments at
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. Translated from the Portuguese by Arlindo Silva.
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