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 Despite not having a crystal ball, every now and then, in politics, looking out into the future is a good thing. Even if only to get a sense, later, of how wrong were our predictions. Still, with not enough paint and big brushes, let’s try to sketch out the portrait of the 2006 presidential race.
That President Lula will be a candidate for reelection there is no doubt. Under normal temperature and pressure conditions, wanting or not, the Workers Party will thrust its greatest symbol to the voting booths. The Party, ministries, allies, and that entire fauna sheltered beneath the wings of power.
As to his chances, let’s begin with the fact that those who have served the post for which they will run are already past the halfway mark, even before taking the first step.
Exploiting the state’s administrative machine and other lamer artifices so frequently used are not mentioned.
Naturally, to run for a second term, the President needs to sustain a reasonable level of popularity, along with certain accomplishments capable of motivating or at least not disheartening voters.
The impossibility to campaign for reelection only occurs when politicians find themselves with approval rates in the depths, which isn’t the case here.
The question raised has to do with the adversaries. The basis for the answer is the conclusion that - with the outcome of the municipal elections - the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) has become the Workers Party’s opposing polarizing force.
Some people are wary and point out that such premise is a maneuver by the elites, banks, and the financial system, and that it’s speculative and a side-show.
A victory by the candidate of the Workers Party or the PSDB would leave everything as is: same economic model, same privileges to those accustomed to them, and the lack of institutional structural reforms; of course, provided that President Lula does not change, compelled by the need to be reelected, but that’s another story.
It’s relevant, therefore, to examine the nest. Who? With winds blowing in the President’s reelection way, a “toucan” (the bird that symbolizes the PSDB) up for an adventurous ride would have to be picked, risking defeat but carrying out the mission to counter-balance the current ruling party.
São Paulo’s Governor Geraldo Alkmin, for example; or perhaps Ceará’s Senator Tasso Jereissati? Governor Aécio Neves, less likely for being “mineiro” (native of Minas Gerais state).
On the other hand, should chances for victory open up, given the image wear and tear in Lula’s administration, no one should doubt: the candidate will be the sociologist (former President Cardoso).
Fernando Henrique Cardoso thinks of nothing else. He negotiates, mobilizes, unites, and leads his fellows. He criticizes his successor like never before witnessed in our republic’s chronicles.
He is ready for a comeback - but not in for rough tackling, only to win; or, at least, if conditions are excellent to allow it.
Is that all there is to the 2006 elections? Maybe not. An ever greater void marks our political scenery since the administration of the Workers Party stepped away from implementing the fundamental social and economic institutional changes.
President Lula was expected to play this role. To that end he received 53 million votes. Jumping ships, he left a blank space. Only one question lingers: who will be the lead artist to attempt the sketch portrait?
Roberto Requião, the Anti-neoliberal
Not that there is a lack of names on the jump-ship wagon, dissenting and radical. Senator Heloisa Helena, for example, with her new PSOL (Party of Socialism and Liberty).
If she insists, she will merely take up space. Like others in similar situation, well-intentioned, idealists, nonetheless, poets without votes.
The void began to be filled by Governor Roberto Requião, of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), currently leaning more than President Lula to the left.
He is the anti-neoliberal foe to privatizations, supporter of tax exemptions to the needy and higher taxes to the elites.
Just by acting this way, he has gotten pierced by enthusiasts of the establishment and their spokespeople. Even the “Requião-Risk” has been created.
Requião’s problem is the ongoing alliance with President Lula: Requião committed himself to the President’s potential reelection.
And he is a member of the PMDB, where so far he has lead and minority group. The once biggest national party has lost its identity.
He can be molded to any government and has also been a Lula’s man since early days. Only as a result of monumental wearing down of the Workers Party would PMDB leaders introduce a candidate of their own, or more likely, form an alliance with other forces, with special focus on Fernando Henrique and his toucans; or, haven’t they done that already?
Requião, in that case, would have to win two battles: one internally, within his own party; the other nationally, in that case against the old ally and ongoing rival, the sociologist (Cardoso), whom Requião cannot stand.
Former Rio’s Governor, Anthony Garotinho, enters the picture to complicate the equation, because he too belongs to the PMDB.
He’s been down lately; there’s talk of his switching parties, perhaps to the PDT (Democratic Labor Party), only to secure a ballot spot and once again run for president. Today, a summer’s night dream; tomorrow, who knows?
Remaining is the PFL (Liberal Front Party), at one point one step away from success with Roseana Sarney, whom the toucans shot dead.
The current Senator from the state of Maranhão has her name being brought to light to run alongside President Lula, as second in command.
Brought up by her father, former President Sarney, because above all she would then be forced to leave the PFL.
Liberals had no choice except Senator Marco Maciel. Now they do. Reelected in the first round, Rio’s mayor, Cesar Maia, has become a joker in the political deck of cards. Only time will tell if he will participate in the presidential game.
To sum up, it is said that the future only to God belongs. There will be early-candidates who see themselves as such, that is, the Eternal-Father. However, to move beyond the above references, only with the help of the little devil…
Carlos Chagas writes for the Rio's daily Tribuna da Imprensa and is a representative of the Brazilian Press Association, in Brasília. He welcomes your comments at carloschagas@hotmail.com.
Translated from the Portuguese by Eduardo Assumpção de Queiroz. He is a freelance translator, with a degree in Business and almost 20 years of experience working in the fields of economics, communications, social and political sciences, and sports. He lives in Boca Raton, Florida. His email: eaqus@adelphia.net.
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