Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso treated the audience,
which had paid a lot of money to hear him, to a rather flat
lecture on world affairs which was lacking in ideas and wit.
He sounded like the kind of Bush-basher who fills the
opinion columns and letters pages of the Brazilian media.

John Fitzpatrick

The Lula government has just passed its first 100 days and this milestone has been marked by events and articles here and abroad. I will desist from adding to the torrent of opinion from every commentator in the land since I think it is far too early to draw any real conclusion. So far, Lula has behaved responsibly and maintained tremendously high popularity ratings. However, he has yet to face a real crisis, domestic or international. When that happens he will be truly tested.

At the moment, however, the government is basically following in the tracks of ex-President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. It was, therefore, with great interest that I attended a meeting in São Paulo last week—the 6^th Seminário sobre Perspectivas da Economia Brasileira sponsored by Tendências, a consulting company—at which the main speaker was none other than Cardoso. After spending most of the first three months of the year abroad, Cardoso has returned home and is raising his profile. He has given a number of interviews, started writing a regular newspaper column for Rio's O Globo and o Estado de S. Paulo and created a research foundation.

Diplomatic Silence

Some people may feel that the views of a former president are now only of historical interest, since he no longer has any power. I would go along with this view were it not for the fact that there have been some reports that Cardoso may be asked to run in the next election. Since he will be in in his mid 70s in three or four years time this is unlikely, but you can never discount anything in politics. Also, since Cardoso left a great impact during his two terms of office, his views still have some value.

It was, therefore, disappointing that Cardoso made almost no reference to domestic matters in his speech. Presumably he did so for "diplomatic" reasons but since he is not a diplomat but a public figure, who is the leader of the main opposition party, I cannot understand his reticence. The PT might be continuing with most of the Cardoso government's policies but the party was an obstructive force during his administrations. Cardoso may think that hostile comments by him could upset the country's image abroad, but Brazil is a democracy and voters are entitled to know his views. Unfortunately, Cardoso treated the audience, which had paid a lot of money to hear him, to a rather flat lecture on world affairs which was lacking in ideas and wit.

Cardoso might have been a good president but, if this was an example of his lecturing style, I am glad I was not one of his students during his years as a professor of sociology. Even more depressing to an admirer like me was his decision to make a thinly-veiled attack on the United States for behaving "unilaterally" in various spheres, from the attack on Iraq to the refusal to sign the Kyoto protocol. At times he sounded like the kind of Bush-basher who fills the opinion columns and letters pages of the Brazilian media. (I defy anyone to imagine a worse way to start the day than to turn to the second and third pages of the Estado de S. Paulo where these correspondents thrive.

He Stoops to Conquer

At one point Cardoso stooped to about the lowest point imaginable when he asked rhetorically: "After Iraq, what next? Chile? India? …Brazil?" To see a man of Cardoso's stature play to the gallery and fall to this level left my heart sore. At least, he did not take the bait of the chairman, an ex-TV interviewer with an inflated idea of his own importance, who almost tut-tutted when referring to the US marine who had briefly covered the head of the Saddam Hussein statue with an American flag. (This was particularly rich, since Brazilians are the world's greatest flag wavers, inside and outside their own country, regardless of the feelings of anyone else.)

Otherwise Cardoso showed great naivety and a lack of understanding, not only of the US position but of the psychology of George W. Bush, and his relations with the UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair. Cardoso said it had been difficult to understand why Bush had waited until now to attack Iraq and had not done so after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Since Cardoso was in power at the time, it is strange that he did not know that Bush's first reaction had been to attack Iraq.

According to British press reports it was Blair who persuaded him to hold off and concentrate on Afghanistan, before turning to Iraq. The US also did try to get the backing of the UN Security Council although Cardoso made no mention of this. Since France had said it would veto any attempt to send in troops, what purpose going to the Security Council would have served is questionable. As to the other members of the Security Council, Russia "unilaterally" invaded Afghanistan and China "invaded" Tibet and has threatened to invade Taiwan on countless occasions.

J'Accuse Président Monsieur Bush Mais Pas Président Chirac

Francophile Cardoso, who headed to Paris after handing over the presidential sash on January 1^st, made no reference to the constant "unilateral" acts of France in sending its forces to former African colonies, using the South Pacific to test its nuclear devices and blocking efforts to reform the European Union's scandalous agricultural protectionist polices. Perhaps, instead of cozy dinners with Jacques Chirac or Lionel Jospin in Paris, Cardoso should have tried to get to know Bush better personally. Some common sense might also have helped. When President Bush claimed a few months ago that Saddam Hussein had tried to kill his father, George Bush Senior, Cardoso should have known (as the rest of us did) that nothing would save Saddam Hussein.

Cardoso also raised the matter of the unfairness of the Security Council, which excludes the world's second and third largest economic powers—Germany and Japan. Presumably he did not see the irony here since both Germany and Japan rose from the ashes after being invaded and defeated by the US and then subsequently pulled back to their feet with American armed and financial support. I would have liked to put my rhetorical question too: "After Germany and Japan…Iraq?" The Security Council has never been the kind of chummy, collegiate body Cardoso, and other supporters of a permanent seat for Brazil, imply and, in fact, the consensus on Iraq after the invasion of Kuwait was one of the few times it agreed unanimously.

PSDB out in the Cold

The rest the event was pretty dull since there was little to talk about. One speaker tried to create a few sparks by saying the old-style PT element was still alive in the government. He cited a few reckless comments on land reform and the attacks which have been made on the regulatory agencies. Although these comments were valid it is difficult to take them seriously at the moment. Another top speaker, the PT President, José Genoíno denied that there was a "new" or "old" PT at all. He said the party was trying to bring together as many left-wing and centre interests.

This is certainly true and the government's recent success in winning a vote in the Lower House of Congress to reform the financial system proves it. This vote—which could lead to an independent Central Bank and abolish the absurd constitutional ceiling of 12 percent on interest rates—was backed by the opposition as well as most of the 12 parties which back the Lula government. These are likely to be joined by the PMDB, which will then leave the PSDB—and Cardoso—out in the cold.

John Fitzpatrick is a Scottish journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has lived in São Paulo since 1995. He writes on politics and finance and runs his own company, Celtic Comunicações—  www.celt.com.br, which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients. You can reach him at jf@celt.com.br 

© John Fitzpatrick 2003

You can also read John Fitzpatrick's articles in Infobrazil, at www.infobrazil.com

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