"This is an ambitious target, as we hope that the average of exports from September to December is higher than that of the last four months," stated the executive foreign trade secretary at the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade, Welber Barral.
From January to August, the export average was US$ 16.84 billion and the forecast for the period from September to December is US$ 17.78 billion.
Among the factors that caused the government of Brazil to increase the target are the modification of commodity prices (basic products traded on the international market), with some prices having increased in comparison with 2007 – like, for example, industrialized beef – and also greater exports of higher value added products, like 3G mobile phones.
With regard to the possibility of the crisis in the United States affecting Brazilian exports this year, Barral said that the effect should be practically null, as a large part of the export contracts is already closed. He pointed out, however, that in the long run it may represent a reduction in demand.
"A very serious crisis in the United States will not only affect the commercial partners in Latin America, which are more dependant, as is the case with Mexico, but also other great economies, like the European and the Chinese. This may generate lower demand for some products and lower Brazilian exports," he explained.
According to Barral, other factors justifying the small effect of the crisis on exports would be the lower dependency of Brazil on trade with the United States and the diversification of the exports to that country.
Barral recalled that from January to August last year, Brazil exported US$ 16.3 billion to the United States, whereas in the same period this year, foreign sales totaled US$ 18.4 billion, representing growth of 14%. In the same comparison, trade with the European Union rose 25.8%.
The secretary did not comment on the target for next year. He limited himself to saying that, to establish this target, the Ministry is going to take into consideration factors like the import forecasts, exchange rates and economic growth of the market.
ABr