Brazzil

The former prime minister of Niger and executive director of NGO HUBRural, Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, pointed out that the success of biofuels in Africa depends on the formation of a regional market.

Mr.Mayaki sounds very pragmatic and sensible in his views on biofuels in Africa. I don't blame him for being skeptical about the "success" of such fuels.Probably, he is more interested in using the land in Niger to produce food to feed its citizens than cultivating sugar cane to extract Ethanol for exports.

You said the same for grains when prices were LOW...but of course increased deforestion when prices were high !!!!


And today you say the same for sugarcane...because prices are LOW !!!!

But the reality is quite different :
Sugarcane plantations in the Amazon is ONLY A VERY SMALL FRACTION OF YOUR DEFORESTATION THAT END UP FOR CATTLES FARMERS AND GRAINS FARMERS !!!!

Only idiots will swallow the Brazilian lies and promises !

No doubt that very shortly you will RE-promise once more you will your Amazon deforestation...against Grains farmers... because prices are VERY LOW AGAIN.
And you will keep that half promise only until the next bull market in grains.
I said half promise because even when grains prices are LOW....illegal deforestation continue...but only at a slower pace !

Who should trust a gang of cheaters and liars ?


You want another proof of Brazilians lies ? Pay attention to what the old Bimbo Rousseff said : "She represented Lula at the opening of the National Biofuels Conference, in São Paulo. "Biofuels cannot and should not compete with food," she said."

BUT....BUT...BUT....has Robin the Crook not already said to the World over, including at his U.N. speech with a blue face "Sugarcane ethanol...DOESNT...compete with food !!!!! And has he not accused OTHERS of lying to protect their own interests ?

Sorry but between DOESNT......CANNOT AND SHOULD NOT....the meaning is quite DIFFERENT !!!!!And as said, it still represents A VERY SMALL PART of your total deforestation !!!!

And has Lula and his cronies also not said more than once...the Amazon is yours......despite the fact that the Amazon belongs to 8 or 9 South American countries coverfing it ?????

Hmmmmm....what else could be expected from cheaters and liars ?
Dont they always cheat and lies "naturally" ?????
Only promises...by definition ! Reality is always different...in Brazil ! You never ever keep your promises anyway !!!!

Last but not least :
Last spring YOU ACCUSED foreigners of owning half of the Amazon abd that they were the ones responsible for the deforestation !!!!!!

DO LIARS, CROOKS AND CHEATERS... HAVE SHORT MEMORIES....ON PURPOSE....AS IT PLEASE THEM ?????

Hmmmm......it is not that way...Brazil will gain credibility with the devloped nations, because thus far not even the large emerging nations outside India really want your SUGARCANE ETHANOL...if it was profitable at the US$ 35.- oil equivalent.

They would not care about your deforestation, if ethanol costs were effectively at the Us$ 35.- oil equivalent ! Especially CHINA ! jUST THINK ABOUT IT !
WHY IS CHINA NOT IMPORTING BILLIONS GALLONS OF SUGARCANE ETHANOL...IF THEY COULD BUY IT AT the $ 50.-/60.- OIL EQUIVALENT level...to allow Brazilian companies to generate a profit ?????
Or even at higher prices when oil was much higher....not so long ago...if I am not too wrong !!!!!

And even more funny that you continue to target ONLY DEVELOPED NATIONS...for your ethanol....not really the other emerging nations !!!

WHY SO....IN YOUR OPINION ??????

What is the relation.... with the Amazon Eco Sensitive Areas ????

Hmmmmm !

But coming from liars....wellll..... they try !

What's Bad for Petrobras Is Bad for Brazil: Alexandre Marinis

Commentary by Alexandre Marinis

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The shares of Brazilian oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, have tumbled 62 percent since May. Another sad chapter in the 2008 financial debacle, perhaps?

Not really. It's worse than that. To put it mildly, Petrobras is the ultimate barometer of Brazilian economic health. If Petrobras fails to generate adequate returns to its stakeholders, the largest economy in Latin America will suffer.

After oil prices plunged from a record $147 on July 14 to below $60, and after the worst credit crunch in decades rippled through world economies, it's obvious that analysts must be dreaming to suggest Petrobras will outperform the market.

Of the analysts that cover Petrobras surveyed by Bloomberg, 20 rate it “buy” while one rates it a “hold.” You have to wonder why, amid the huge bubble in commodities prices earlier in the year, no one had the brains or courage to say, “Hey, maybe this is out of line.”

After all, under current market conditions, how, where and at what cost will the company raise the $600 billion it needs to explore its newly discovered offshore oil fields? With oil prices plunging more than 60 percent, aren't those expensive oil fields becoming economically unfeasible or, at least, less attractive? And couldn't it be too risky to push such a sizeable investment through an economic crisis that has credit trickling, the cost of capital surging and global consumption collapsing?

Then there's the possibility that the crisis lasts long enough to encourage world leaders, such as U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, to embrace fuel-efficient technologies and affordable, renewable energy sources once and for all. If this happens, Brazil may be compelled to leave all its vast new oil reserves exactly where they are -- deep under the sea.

Venezuela Comparison

Regardless of global environmental policies, there is no doubt the current economic turmoil has postponed the day Brazil will start collecting billions of petrodollars from its oil fields. This affects not just Petrobras and its growth prospects but the prospects of the entire country.

Just consider what's happened to Venezuela, the Latin American country that depends most heavily on oil. Its economy slowed to a 4.6 percent growth rate in the third quarter, well below the 10 percent average rate during the past five years.

The slump in oil revenue also will figure in the plans of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who in 2007 opened his second term in office by announcing the Program to Accelerate Growth, or PAC, a series of investment projects aimed at improving Brazil's infrastructure and boosting its economic growth rate.

Key to Economy

Of 504 billion Brazilian reais ($214 billion) in investments laid out under PAC for 2007-2010, more than a third, or 172 billion reais, is supposed to come from Petrobras.

If oil averages $80 a barrel over the next decade, Petrobras will increase its share in the Brazilian economy from 4.7 percent today to 7.2 percent by 2020. If oil prices rise and average $120 a barrel, the company's share in the Brazilian gross domestic product will more than double to 10 percent, according to calculations from the Economics Institute of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. The estimates don't include any impact from the exploration of the new offshore fields.

Petrobras is also central to Brazil's trade balance. Last year, the company was the single largest exporter in the country, generating more than $14 billion in export revenue, or almost 9 percent of everything Brazil sold abroad.

Largest Taxpayer

More than a key contributor to growth and trade, Petrobras is vital to the financial health of the Brazilian government.

In 2007, Petrobras paid 54.8 billion Brazilian reais ($24 billion) in taxes, making it the largest taxpayer in the country. Depending on the year, Petrobras has been responsible for between 6 percent and 9 percent of all taxes collected by Brazilian federal, state and municipal governments.

Without Petrobras, Brazil's public sector, which includes the three government levels and the companies they control, would probably face tremendous difficulties to meet its official fiscal targets.

The oil company alone is responsible for approximately 10 percent of the public-sector primary surplus -- the budget balance resulting from revenues minus non-interest expenses.

Brazil's planning minister, Paulo Bernardo, recently said the government will have to cut 8 billion reais from the 2009 federal budget due to the economic crisis. The main reason behind the shortfall is the sharp drop in oil prices, which slashed projected revenue by 7 billion reais.

Support for Culture

It's also clear that the impact of the recent plunge in Petrobras shares isn't limited to the stock exchanges or the company itself.

Without a healthy Petrobras, even Brazil's cultural life will face a dearth of funding, since the company is Brazil's largest cultural sponsor. I can't remember the last time I went to a movie, the theater, an art exhibit or concert that wasn't at least partially sponsored by Petrobras.

Famous Brazilian films such as “City of God” (2002), “Carandiru” (2003) and the Academy Award-nominated “Four Days in September” (1997) all were backed by Petrobras.

While the old U.S. saying that what's good for GM is good for America may now be open to question, there is no doubt that what's bad for Petrobras is bad for Brazil.

(Alexandre Marinis, political economist and founding partner of Mosaico Economia Politica, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Alexandre Marinis in Sao Paulo at amarinis1@bloomberg.net

lets face it. huge solutions are well at hand...

legalise marijuana, tax it heavily, and, the whole world ecomomy would get a tremendous boost. the seeds can make fuel for cars , as well, or cooking oil

lets face it. the real last american prosperity was the beggining of the computor revolution (not the end that sunk to dot com greed). innovation , inventiveness, new money coming in. that is what is really needed. no one talks about that. and the drug war is totaly hypocritical, especialy if liquor, cigarettes and cars are legal. they kill far more people. it would have to be severly regulated, but, the economic boom would pull the whole world out of this crises

i dont do drugs like coke , heroin, speed or pcp or pot

hey, whatever, compared to the horible solutions people are trying now, anything is better

What's Bad for Petrobras Is Bad for Brazil: Alexandre Marinis

Not really.

Without a healthy Petrobras, even Brazil's cultural life will face a dearth of funding, since the company is Brazil's largest cultural sponsor. I can't remember the last time I went to a movie, the theater, an art exhibit or concert that wasn't at least partially sponsored by Petrobras.

Famous Brazilian films such as “City of God” (2002), “Carandiru” (2003) and the Academy Award-nominated “Four Days in September” (1997) all were backed by Petrobras.

Pure baloney. The poor Brazilians can not afford to go to the movie theaters paying the prices they charge for the tickets, to watch movies listed above. Our "Cultural life" is not going to suffer, because we have "Novelas" shown by our TV Networks everyday and we don't have to pay to watch them.

I can go on analyzing the comments by "AE" like Ch.c does, but unfortunately I lack the patience and time.

We all knew that the price of oil was going to come down and consequently the price of Petrobras shares. But the "Headmen" of three important countries in S.America were behaving as though they were the Sheiks of the Middle East and floating on "Oil" whose high price could be used to promote their own agenda.

It was stupid to place your bet on one single horse and our "Headmen" know it,but do not want to acknowledge. It is easier to point the fingers at others for their myopia.

DEAD WRONG !!!! EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE !

99 % of the crowd were 100 % sure oil could ONLY go to $ 200.- by July or at worst by September. Same when soyabeans were at $ 15-./16.- prices could only go up at $ 20.- and more !

THIS WAS A GUARANTEE USING THE CHINA/INDIA DEMAND THEORY !

Typical in a Bubble phase, where the angle of the prices increase is even steeper than earlier !

Now we are in a Bursting phase ! For how long ? Good question....no answer ! is it over ? may be somewhat yess...may be definitely Noo !

Usually, I tend to be somewhat too early. That is why I reduce on a step by step when prices are bubbling, and accumulate on a step by step when prices are bursting !
But investing in a foreign currency than your currency base involve another added dimension : the trend of the foreign currency against your currency base. Meaning double risk but also eventual double reward.
Conclusion : LOW AND SLOW step by step is even more important !

On Petrobras and Wall Street comments :
- but it is always Wall Street CREATING the bubbles and the bursts ! smiles !
- True : analysts ratings on stocks. They turn more bearish...when prices already went down by 60-80 % !
- Even more true : of all the analysts ratings on all stocks they follow....even during a bear market.....the average percentage of SELL is 5 % !
- More shameful : the credit ratings agencies ! they rated trillions of toxic debts as AAA.
- for the fun : these same agencies were still rating Lehman debts as investment grade (but not AAA) ONE DAY BEFORE LEHMAN WENT BANKRUPT !!!
- even more funny...in my view : they gave investment grade status to Brazil in April 2008....nearly right at the TOP of their stock prices, their currency prices...the government start of rates increase...at the early stage of their CURRENT ACCOUNT HISTORICAL...DEFICIT !!!!
Or said otherwise : more wrong they could not be !!!!!!

Conclusion : Wall Street analysts or credit agencies always put investors in a TRAP !!!!
I know it better than most...I worked for them for 3 decades !!!! smiles ! Therefore....nothing new !
It was not any better during the techno BUBBLE !
Just a simple example : they put Gateway (PC maker) as a strong buy at US$ 70.- target 100.-, and maintained the strong buy all the way down to US$ 15.-. Then they downgraded to "HOLD" until around $ 10.- !
And finally the real gift to : NO OPINION !!!!
A Wall Street Classic ! Rarely a SELL...since companies are also doing business with them, wont appreciate a SELL rating ! Typically a Wall Street Conflict of interests !

Worse Yet for example : A bank analyst at a large Wall Street firm, was fired in the early 2000 because he put a SELL rating in many large
banks ! But...but...but.....his sell ratings were DEAD RIGHT !!!!!

therefore dont expect a lot of SELL ratings for Petrobras...even if it will go down another 70-80 % !
Petrobras is a large client for debts at Wall Street !

C'est la vie ! smiles

We all knew that the price of oil was going to come down and consequently the price of Petrobras shares

DEAD WRONG !!!! EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE !

When I said "We all knew", I did not mean the 99% crowd. "We all" refers to that 1% like our excellent selves who are no doubt "deep thinkers" use their God given brains. Of course, I remember that some bloggers have called us a "bunch of grumpy old men". Since I am a magnanimous person, I forgive them and not forget the insulting comments.

THIS WAS A GUARANTEE USING THE CHINA/INDIA DEMAND THEORY !/quote]

There again, the 1% did not believe in this theory. The Chinese and Indians are very cozy with the Yanks, Canucks, Europeans and Ruskies. So bang goes the theory.

The rest of your comments are endorsed by me.

Not so ! Not so !!!!
Dont be so sure about myself.
I too was a junkie for years.
I too swallowed the Wall Street lies, for years !

But...but....despite my cynical comments, it is also due to Wall Street that for example in 2007 alone and in Brazil alone, there were 57 Newly listed or not companies that RECEIVED billions of US$ in shares offering. Such as Cosan who alone got US$ 1 billion in September 2007.
That money helped Cosan for their development, new jobs, newer mechanical sugarcane harvesters, buying out some competitors, increasing their wages, increasing their sugarcane fields, paying additional taxes, fees.
Plus all the indirect new jobs, such as hairdressers, bakeries, doctors with more patients and able to charge higher fees, same for hairdressers, also making cars or appliances more affordable directly and indirectly to the community in general, etc etc !!!!

Not everything is NEGATIVE issuing new shares at high prices !

Therefore my cynisms & critics must be balanced to a large extent.

This is also how the world is getting better to a SMALL extend !

Something that Robin the Crook forgot...ON PURPOSE !

Just think about how the World would be (not only Brazil)...without the ventures capital investors.
I just remind you that these investments were NOT DEBTS due to be repaid. And due to these additonal cash investments, it also also allowed companies to borrow MORE !

Let me give you one NOT unknown secret :
- When IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) are high for a year or so....
A MAJOR TOP...is not that far away ! Just look at 1999 in the technology sector ! No difference !

I selling high is good for the smart investors, it can be ONLY ALSO very good for companies to issues new shares...AT A HIGH PRICE !!!!

If Robin the Idiot is against this, he should spell clearly that when the BOVESPA is very high, new shares offerings MUST be BANNED...IN BRAZIL...and that no sucker, foreign or local should be allowed to provide cash to Cosan...etc etc !!!! SMILES

I bet that HE will suddenly...DISAGREE !!!!

As I said so many times, cheaters always cheat, liars always lie, hiders always hide. This as good for Lula as for Wall Street, the City,
Paris, Zurich, Moscow, or just name it.

Excesses ARE GOOD ! Just imagine if banks lent much less to emerging nations governments or companies during 2003-2007...than they effectively did !
Do you think ONE second you would have had these economic growth rates.
Same for Real Estate prices increase : Do you think real estate prices would have gone that high in the USA, Europe, South America, Asia, European eastern countries ??????

Come on, Come on !!!!


ALL EXCESSES ARE GOOD ! Just get out or at least seriously reduce when prices are very high, and accumulate when prices are much lower !!!

Every one will have a different view on the timing, but that is good, it provide liquidity at the exchanges.

The only problem, this time....was that LENDING EXCESSES went a little too far ! Thus the bursting phase may as well go..a little too far !!!

Life is great as long as one stops being a sucker !

Decades ago a very wealthy guy (a Rothschild I believe) said :
" I dont care picking the top or the bottom, if I a make 80 % of the move is enough"

WELLLL...I am not yet that smart, thus I will say.... if I could make 50 % of the move I may as well be very very happy. My investors too !!!!
The swings are big enough !
Simple examples based in US$ to take the effect of the currencies :
Petrobras 2002 low $ 2,50 - / 2008 high $ 73.- / last $ 18.-
U.S. Steel 2002 low $ 12.- / 2008 high $ 190.-/ last $ 25.- Whoaaaaa
Cia Vale 2002 low $ 2.- / 2008 high $ 44.- / last $ 10.-
Monsanto 2002 low $ 7.- / 2008 high à 140.-/ last $ 70.-

Now 2 problems for everyone :
- what is their next low ?
- usually...the previous biggest winners...are not the next biggest winners. Therefore what will the the theme of the next bull market ????

My answer is good as yours : NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE UNTIL THE NEXT TOP IS KNOWN ...AFTER THE FACT ! Everything else is wishful thinking !

Does that make sense to you ? It does for me !

1) Board of Directors
Dilma Vana Rousseff - Representative of the Controller - Chairman
Yeahhhhhh !
http://www2.petrobras.com.br/ri/ing/GovernancaCorporativa/Organograma.asp#cons

Board of Directors
Guido Mantega - Representative of the Controller - Member
Yeahhhhh

Sorry sorry... BUT that happens only in BANANA REPUBLICS !

FEEL FREE to consult the above site, other well known political figures actually at the government...may surface. You know better who is who !

2)One of the reason Brazil got a lower inflation rate over the last 3 years,
was because from 2005 to April 2008 Petrobas was NOT allowed to raise their prices to the free market prices, at a time oil price more than doubled...on average ! Hmmmmm

3)But...but...but...in April 2008 they got the approval to raise their prices, I believe to US$ 80.- equivalent.

4) Therefore Brazil used an indirect trick to SUBSIDIZE their oil prices from 2005 until prices were finally at $ 80.- but from the top. smiles

5) and now...since Brazil enjoy auto-goals, Petrobras oil sold locally is effectively......
at a PREMIUM to market prices, from the day oil went below $ 80.-

Conclusion : the Government has a real problem...NOW ! Lowering oil price to the market prices will further have Petrobras profits collapse and the Government taxes on Petrobras....also collapse !
And not lowering their oil prices will further accentuate the NON COMPETITIVENESS OF THE HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS MILLIONS TONS OF THEIR SUGARCANE, GRAINS,FOODS TRANSPORTATION COSTS IN SUCH A VAST COUNTRY WITH SUCH A BAD ROADS INFRASTRUCTURE !!!!
Sugarcane production around 550 millions tons
Iron Ore production of Cia vale alone 300 millions tons
Grains around 100 millions tons or whatever
Steels, ciments, cattles, ethanol, fertilizers, meats, foods, etc etc transportation PREMIUM costs....not included yet !

Hmmmmm....at times I understand these days why Robin the Crook is so nervous...in his arrogance !!!!

Cheaters always cheat, liars always lie, hiders always hide !
End results : far more will come on the surface....slowly slowly but...but...surely surely !

When the liar Mantega still pretend that 2009 will see a 4 to 5 % economic growth, he forgets on purpose, to mention the Brazilian economists average polled by the Brazilian Central Bank predict a 3 % growth for 2009 ! Of course all these averages are subject to regular revised estimates....UP....OR DOWN !!!!! Time will tell !

As I said many times, more Brazilian currency decline looms ahead !
That will have the least effect to individuals, but the most effect to companies having the most debts in FOREIGN CURRENCIES !!!!!
Not an easy task to balance what was never balanced earlier.

BRAZILIANS GOVERNMENTS AND POLITICIANS TRAPPED THEMSELVES IN THEIR OWN
FILTHY GAME !
Brazil excels in futbol, corruption, wealth inequality, non competitive
in doing business as per the latest ranking, crimes, injustice, stats manipulation, and ECONOMIC AUTOGOALS !!!!!!

hip hip Lula, hip hip Lulaaaa !

This will be of course.... until firings and unemployment will go to much higher levels and for how long ! the longer it last even at today level will be very costly, let alone if we go somewhat lower or may be much lower !

I remember a "clever" Elite Trader who wrote long articles here as to why China should invest $ 200 billion in Brazil, why nationalizing Petrobras and Cia Vale was the good way, and why creating a SWF was smart......NEARLY AT THE TOP....OF COURSE !!!!

AND EVEN WHEN YOUR FILTHY GOVERNMENT ELIMINATED OIL EXPLORATION LICENCES OUT OF AUCTIONS...THAT COULD HAVE BEEN SOLD AT...TOP PRICES...OF COURSE !
In the not too distant future they will put again these licences for auctions....and will get a fraction of what they could have gotten.... only 6 months ago !!!!!

Same for taxes on foreigners buying Government bonds in local currency.
There was no tax on purchases. Suddenly...a new tax in April. Tax eliminated a month ago !!!

The only consistency in Brazil is INCONSISTENCIES & NON COMMON SENSE !

Watch for Brazilian planters to start going bankrupt, especially those in cotton, soy, and corn.