The annual production of beef in Brazil should be around 14 million tons in 2018. The figure was calculated by researchers at the Center of Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), of the College of Agriculture (Esalq), in Piracicaba, in the interior of the Brazilian southeastern state of São Paulo.
For the forecast, a 4.98% rate of growth for Brazilian beef was forecasted each year. The figure was defined taking into consideration the last ten years and is considered possible for the current situation of the activity on the national and global scenario. The rate of growth of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was estimated at 3.5% for coming years, based on market information.
With regard to these conditions, Brazilian production, which this year is estimated at around 9.5 million tons, should exceed 14 million tons by 2018, whereas domestic consumption should be between 7 and 9 million tons. These figures make clear the strong tendency for expansion of the export surplus.
For 2008, growth of 2.53% in domestic consumption is expected, and 12% in volume available for exports, according to forecasts by Cepea researchers. For next year, if the growth of exports is maintained at around 5%, domestic consumption at 2.5% and the Brazilian GDP at 3.5%, the total for export should reach 2.9 million tons, a volume 11.5% greater than that estimated for 2008.
According to researchers responsible for the study, with the greater surplus for export, Brazilian beef farmers must seek new markets and also intensify the promotion work in countries that are already buyers.
Markets like China, Japan, the Arab nations and other emerging nations should, in the medium term, demand more Brazilian meats, including beef, according to the study. One of the reasons is the price of beef, relatively low, when compared to other producer countries.
Currently, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Libya are among the ten main buyers of the Brazilian product. The four nations consumed over 440,000 tons of beef in the first nine months of the year. From January to September, Brazilian exports of beef totaled US$ 3.91 billion, with the Arab countries representing a share of almost 20% of the total.
On the domestic market, the consumption of beef is greatly connected to income and, consequently, to the growth of the national GDP. And, according to the Cepea study, a solution to increase the consumption should be the reduction of prices ”“ which, in fact, should take place due to the estimated growth in offer of Brazilian products.