Brazil President’s Appeal to Poor and Unschooled Voter Bodes Well for Her Reelection

Dilma RousseffBrazil’s average voter for the coming presidential election in October is between 25 and 34 years old, has on average a high school education and a low monthly family income, equivalent to US$ 618. He lives in the Southeast region of the country, in a small town with fewer than 50,000 inhabitants.

Candidates who manage to convince the average voter are very likely to reach their objective and currently president Dilma Rousseff, the Workers’ Party, PT, candidate for reelection, comes the closest to this average voter profile aspirations.

That helps to explain why Dilma leads in vote intention, with 47% in the most likely scenario, which is enough to win in the first round. This conclusion was drawn from data surveyed by pollster DataFolha on, with a two percentage points margin of error. The survey polled 2,614 people nationwide.

The data show each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses. “It’s a map to let them know where they should attack and what they should protect,” says DataFolha’s general director, Mauro Paulino.

Rousseff is the only candidate whose majority of voters (51%) has a monthly income of less than 1,448 reais (US$ 618), the lowest segment and the most numerous.

Another characteristic of her voters is the lack of schooling: 44% attended elementary school and 44% high school – the figures are similar to those of the average Brazilian.

However the only strong dissonant characteristic is regional. Rousseff voters are concentrated in Brazil’s Northeast and are fewer in the Southeast.

At the other end of the political arch are the voters of former cabinet minister Marina Silva (PSB), and, in some segments, those of Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB). Nearly 30% of Silva’s supporters and prepared to vote for her, have a college education (Rousseff’s is only 12%). And most of Silva’s electors live in cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants.

Senator Neves’s voters are mainly men, (57%), live in the Southeast (57%) and have a higher income, which suggests a possible repeat of the class division that occurred in 2006 and 2010.

The supporters of presidential hopeful and Pernambuco Governor Eduardo Campos (PSB), are also mainly in the Northeast and in medium-sized cities, between 50,000 and 200,000 inhabitants.

Mercopress

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