In US and Europe Brazil Is Overwhelming Favorite to Win the World Cup

The results of an online survey conducted among a multi-country sample to gauge which country was expected to win the World Cup tournament showed respondents tending to vote for either their home country or Brazil – with Brazil proving to be the overall favorite.

The survey conducted by comScore Networks, during the week before the tournament began among nearly 5,000 Internet users across seven different countries, including England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the U.S.

Although most often chosen as the expected winner, the percentage of respondents selecting Brazil varied widely by country, with French residents being the most optimistic about the Brazilian team (46 percent expected Brazil to win), followed by Spanish residents (41 percent) and residents of the Netherlands (36 percent).  Only 20% of U.S. respondents picked Brazil to win the tournament.

Percentage of Respondents who Expect Brazil to Win the World Cup    Tournament

Responses by Country      Percent Voting for Brazil
   France                                46%
   Spain                                 41%
   Netherlands                           36%
   Germany                               32%
   England                               30%
   Portugal                              25%
   USA                                   20%

In terms of "home team voting", the percentage of respondents voting for their country’s team ranged from 61 percent in Portugal to 29 percent among respondents in France, with the French apparently extremely pessimistic about their team’s chances of winning the tournament.

However, comScore found that when the individual country survey responses were compared with the average bookmakers’ odds of each country winning, some interesting findings emerged. 

The Portuguese appeared the most overconfident with their 61 percent home team vote far exceeding the 4 percent (or 23 to 1) chance of winning according to bookmakers. 

However, the U.S. came in a close second with a 33 percent home team vote, compared to only a 2 percent (40 to 1) bookmakers’ chance of winning the tournament.

The Overconfidence Index (defined as the ratio of the "home team vote" to the bookmakers’ official chance of winning multiplied by 100) ranged from 1467 for Portugal and 1346 for the U.S., to 399 for England and 373 for Germany. 

The French actually appeared slightly more overconfident than their German and English counterparts, with the 29 percent home team vote among the French being much higher than the 7 percent bookmaker chance of winning, resulting in an overconfidence index of 440.

Percent of Respondents Voting for their Home Team to Win the World Cup Tournament Ranked by Overconfidence Index

                   Percent      Bookmakers’     Bookmakers’
   Responses      Voting for    Odds to Win       Chance      Overconfidence
   by Country     Own Country    (June 6)       of Winning        Index*
   Portugal          61%          23 to 1           4%            1467
   USA               33%          40 to 1           2%            1346
   Netherlands       42%          14 to 1           7%             623
   Spain             29%          16 to 1           6%             488
   France            29%          14 to 1           7%             440
   England           47%          15 to 2          12%             399
   Germany           41%           8 to 1          11%             373

   *The Overconfidence Index is defined as the ratio of the "home team vote" to the official bookmakers’ chance of that country winning multiplied by 100.  So, for example, the English are four times as optimistic as the average bookmaker that England will win the World Cup.

ComScore Networks – www.comscore.com

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