Survey Says: Brazil’s Lula Wins Reelection by Landslide

Brazil’s latest presidential election poll released today by CNT/Sensus threw a bucket of cold water into the campaign of Geraldo Alckmin, the main opponent to the reelection of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The survey shows Lula with 47,9% of the votes (he had 44,1% the previous month) while Alckmin has only 19.7% a substantial fall of 7.5% since the previous inquiry by the same CNT/Sensus one month ago.

When only the valid votes are considered Lula wins with 60.5% of the ballots in the first round on October 1st. Alckmin would get only a dismal 24.9% of the votes.

Many of Alckmin’s lost votes went to senator Heloí­sa Helena, who founded he leftist party PSOL after having been expelled from the ruling PT (Workers Party) for opposing Lula’s policy. Those who say they will vote for Helena went from 5.4% to 9.3%.

For Ricardo Guedes, director of the Sensus Institute, Alckmin bad performance is due to the low expectation the public has towards his candidacy. Guedes also cited the fact that he has been getting little exposure in the media.

The Sensus director believes that the middle class does not like Lula but their dislike of Alckmin is even bigger: "Alckmin is not being able to take advantage of the media and when he exposes himself he loses votes."

The attacks by the organized crime in São Paulo are not helping him either. Alckmin just resigned his post as São Paulo governor a few months ago to run for the presidency. In the southeast region, where São Paulo is located, and the former governor had the majority of votes, his voters fell from 32.4% in June to 21.6% in July.

The CNT/Sensus poll interviewed 2,000 voters in 24 Brazilian states between August 1 and 4.

Commenting on the survey’s results, Alckmin said the work cannot be taken seriously: "This survey does not show the reality and I only deal with serious stuff."

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