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Experts Say Brazil Won’t Grow More than 4.1% This Year

A Brazilian company in Diadema, São Paulo state A Brazilian company in Diadema, São Paulo state

A Brazilian company in Diadema, São Paulo state Brazilian financial institutions heard for the Focus Bulletin research, made by Brazil's Central Bank, believe that Brazil's economy should grow below the 4.5% target established by the government in its Growth Acceleration Program (PAC).

According to the just-released report, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of all the riches produced in the country) will end 2007 with a 4.1% growth. The previous week the research had shown the same numbers. And for three weeks in a row now the forecast for 2008 is for a 4% growth in the GDP.

According to these analysts, the industrial production will grow 4% in 2007 and 4.4% next year.

In their evaluation, the overvalued dollar in relation to the real will not jeopardize exports. The experts are betting that the trade balance will end the year with a US$ 40 billion surplus. This amount is US$ 10 million less than the US$ 40,01 billion shown in the preceding survey.

Projections for the American dollar keep on falling. Analysts believe that the dollar will close 2007 at 2.05 reais – just one cent less than last week's forecast. For the end of 2008, the estimate changed from 2.13 reais to 2.12 reais.

The Focus Bulletin also pointed out that direct foreign investment, which produces jobs, is growing.  Forecasts for this year increased from US$ 18.3 billion to US$ 19.45 billion when the last two researches are compared.

ABr

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  • Show Comments (7)

  • Ric

    Buchada subiu tambem, xarque, carne de lata, jabÀƒ¡, cÀƒ´co com rapadura, farinha. SÀƒ³ falta macambira.

  • ch.c.

    Interesting comments…to the costs of living !
    therefore what could anyone buy if he has a fanily and earns the minimum wage of Reals 368.- ????

    Better yet : what could anyone buy with 0,50 Reais…to get 3 decent meals per day ????
    Is that not what people get from the Bolsa Familia program ?

    In my view, it is not enough…..even to buy ……soyameal….in bulk !!!!

    Concerning your economic growth rate, it will be the 4th year out of 5 that Lula miss his own target !
    Great achievement, isnt it !

    For your info the average growth rate estimate of all economists is at 3,77 %, below your PAC estimate.
    Subject to weekly revision !
    Thus far they started the year at 3,5 % and revised their estimates up, while the PAC started with 4,5 % and is revised down !

    Rosy estimates has been the norm with Lula promises !

  • João da Silva

    To:Doggy Daddy
    [quote]Ola Joao, I live in Santa Catarina [/quote]

    Great to know. Which city? Must be one of those nice towns in the interior,because in the Capital, the prices are much higher than the figures you stated.

    BTW, have you heard the news about lots of politicos being arrested in SC?

    Keep blogging.Good to hear from you.

  • Doggy Daddy

    Re Joao da Silva
    Ola Joao, I live in Santa Catarina

  • João da Silva

    To:Doggy Daddy/Inflation
    [quote]Where I live in the south ….file migon has gone from $R14,00 kg to now $R 19,75 kg and Contra File from $R 9,95, to $R 14.75 in just the last 4 months. Pasta has increased 24 % since Dec/2006. My electric bill has increased 8% per kilowatts in the last 6 months and bottle gas has gone from $R 32,00 to $R 38,00 per canister bottle. They won’t even make much over 3.5% this year in growth and the countries exorts are down 8 % this year already. Boa Sorte,,rsrsrsrsr
    [/quote]

    I thought I was the only fool questioning about the bullshit about the Growth Rate and the Inflation rate, that the Govt wants us to swallow. Thanks for reaffirming my view. Which state do you live?

  • Doggy Daddy

    Inflation
    Where I live in the south ….file migon has gone from $R14,00 kg to now $R 19,75 kg and Contra File from $R 9,95, to $R 14.75 in just the last 4 months. Pasta has increased 24 % since Dec/2006. My electric bill has increased 8% per kilowatts in the last 6 months and bottle gas has gone from $R 32,00 to $R 38,00 per canister bottle. They won’t even make much over 3.5% this year in growth and the countries exorts are down 8 % this year already. Boa Sorte,,rsrsrsrsr

  • João da Silva

    [quote]According to the just-released report, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of all the riches produced in the country) will end 2007 with a 4.1% growth[/quote]

    I think that it is going to be much less than 4.1% discounting the inflation rate.The so called analysts always get their forecast wrong regarding the Brazilian economy.Anyone who has gone to the Supermarkets to buy basic groceries knows how to project the inflation rate as well as growth rate of the GNP.

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