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Brazil Won’t Feel the US’s Mortgage Debacle and Will Keep World Growing

Brazil's BNDES chief Luciano Coutinho From 2002 to 2005 Brazil received 640 billion reais (US$ 358 billion) in investment. Between 2007 and 2010, the estimated value is 1 trillion reais (US$ 559.5 billion). From 2008 to 2011, the total should be 1.19 trillion reais (US$ 665.8 billion).

The figures are part of a survey conducted by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), disclosed this Friday, December 7, by the president of the institution, Luciano Coutinho, and includes all categories of investment made in the country.

The estimate, according to Coutinho, is based on consultations received by the BNDES, although they do not compute only the values financed by the bank. "The BNDES supports a significant share of those investment projects," said Luciano Coutinho.

According to the survey, the oil and gas sector will receive the largest investment volume between next year and 2011, at 202.8 billion reais (US$ 113.4 billion). Over the amount invested in the sector between 2003 and 2006, which was 126.3 billion reais (US$ 70.6 million), the annual value will increase by 9.9%.

The industrial sector that will receive the second largest investment volume during the period will be mineral extraction, at 81 billion reais (US$ 453 million) and a 16.4% growth in annual value.

Next up comes the automotive sector, at 35 billion reais (US$ 19.5 billion) and a 9.5% growth, the steel industry, at 31.2 billion reais (US$ 17.4 billion) and an increase of 12%. The petrochemical industry will receive an investment of 27.4 billion reais (US$ 15.3 billion) and an annual growth rate of 36.8%.

Coutinho discussed the data during the 12th Annual Brazilian Chemical Industry Meeting, promoted in the southeastern Brazilian city of São Paulo by the Brazilian Chemical Industry Association (Abiquim).

Of the total investment of US$ 1 trillion that the country should receive from the current year until 2010, 249.5 billion reais (US$ 139.6 billion) will go to the industry sector. Of the 1.19 trillion reais (US$ 665.8 billion) that should be invested between 2008 and 2011, 447 billion reais (US$ 250.1 billion) will be destined to industrial production.

According to the BNDES survey, there will be a 12.4% rise in the annual amount invested in the Brazilian industry from 2008 and 2011, compared with the period ranging from 2003 to 2006.

When discussing the figures, Coutinho praised the private sector, said that accelerating investment is a fundamental measure, and that the bank is going to help.

"The private sector is the one that ensures price sustainability, through heavy investment, and we need to help that happen," said the executive.

The BNDES chief also stated that the private sector must be in good shape, as it provides the foundation to Brazilian growth. "On the average, Brazilian private profitability is doing very well," said the president at BNDES.

Coutinho mentioned some of the projects that are being developed by the Brazilian petrochemical industry, which the bank is funding.

He also spoke of the good indicators of Brazilian economy, of the fact that inflation is under control, and that formal employment rates are on the rise.

"The Brazilian economy is undergoing a favorable moment, it has solid conditions in order to sustain growth," said Coutinho.

According to him, the forecast of a 5.5% economic growth rate for 2008 is a realistic one. "Even in the hypothesis of a cooling of the global economy," he stated.

Coutinho believes that even if the banking crisis should affect the United States, it will not hamper the growth capacity of Asia, China and Brazil. "The developing countries are going to help maintain global growth in  2008," he said.

Anba

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