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2008 Predictions: Barack Becomes US President and Brazil Stocks Boom

Barack Obama, US President Among predictions for 2008 made by Pequot Capital Chief Investment Strategist, Byron R. Wien, released today Brazil appears leading a bullish ride in stocks.  Wien has been issuing his economic, financial market and political Ten Surprises list since 1986. The 2008 list follows:

1. In spite of Federal Reserve easing, and other policy measures, the United States economy suffers its first recession since 2001 as housing starts stay soft and banks are reluctant to lend to anyone where a whiff of risk is apparent. Federal funds drop below 3%. The unemployment rate moves definitively above 5% and consumer spending is lackluster.
 
2. Standard and Poor's 500 earnings decline year-over-year and the index drops another 10%. Energy and materials stocks hold up relatively well in what is viewed as a correction rather than a bear market. Market conditions start to improve during the summer.
 
3. The dollar strengthens in the first half reaching US$ 1.35 against the euro and weakens in the second exceeding US$ 1.50. The European Central Bank begins an accommodative monetary policy. Foreign investors flock in to buy cheap assets in the U.S. early in the year but the dollar declines later as several countries holding large reserves diversify into other assets.
 
4. Inflation rises above 5% on the Consumer Price Index as higher commodity prices and oil finally begin to have an impact in spite of modest wage increases. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 5%. Stagflation becomes a frequent presidential campaign and Op-Ed discussion topic.
 
5. The price of oil goes down early in the year and up later, sinking to US$ 80 a barrel in the first half as western economies slow and inventories are drawn down, and rising to US$ 115 in the second. Established wells continue to decline in production while China, India and the Middle East increase their consumption.
 
6. Agricultural commodities remain strong. Corn rises to US$ 6 a bushel and cotton to US$ 0.85 a pound. Gold reaches US$ 1000 an ounce as disillusionment with paper currencies spreads across Asia.
 
7. The recession in the United States slows the Chinese economy modestly but its stock market declines sharply. Investors recognize that paying biotechnology stock multiples for highly cyclical companies doesn't make sense. The Chinese revalue the renminbi by another 10% to control inflation and as a gesture to foreign governments participating in the Olympic Games who complain that Chinese terms of trade are unfair. Several long distance runners refuse to compete in certain Olympic events because of continuing air pollution problems.
 
8. The new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, under the tutelage of Vladimir Putin, becomes more assertive in world affairs. He insists that Russian oil and gas be paid for in rubles and demands a Russian seat at major world conferences. Russia and Brazil stock markets lead the BRICs. The Gulf Cooperation Council markets begin to attract interest among emerging market investors.
 
9. Infrastructure improvement becomes an important election theme for both parties and construction and engineering stocks rally in anticipation of huge programs beginning after the new President's inauguration. Water becomes a critical problem world-wide and desalination stocks soar.
 
10. Barack Obama becomes the 44th President in a landslide victory over Mitt Romney. With conditions in Iraq improving, the weak economy becomes the determining issue in voters' minds. They want to make sure that gridlock ends and Congress gets something done for a change. The Democrats end up with 60 Senate seats and a clear majority in the House of Representatives.

Mr. Wien believes these surprises, which the consensus would assign only a one-in-three chance of happening, have at least a 50% probability of occurring at some point during the year. In previous years, more than half of the elements of the list have proven correct.

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  • Show Comments (5)

  • Luni Joi

    Obama will win
    My friend reads cards, and she said that Hillary got the “World” card reversed, which is very strong. That means that she will not win because she needs the right support and advice and she is not likely to get it.
    Look: she was not supposed to get too emotional. I like Hillary, but she is not smooth like Bill Clinton. Bill Clinto is a virtuoso in the realm of politics, unfortunately, Hillary was not born with that gift.

  • Uncle Vanya

    OBama for President
    Senator OBama will be the next US President. McCain and Mrs Palin the other runners will eventually drop out.

  • Yacmet

    Every woman who has struggled for the equality of women, stand accused by men of being biased. This are new times we should all know that and if Hilary Clinton has the experience and the guts to govern the US, she should do it!

  • Shellly

    Peter
    Have you seen that Huckabee and Obama are the new front runners? Clinton was smashed in Iowa, what do you think will happen next?

  • Peter

    Sounds like bullshit to me
    Obama for president? Not for at least another 8 years. :

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