Private and public investment in dynamic sectors of the Brazilian economy should grow 18% a year between 2008 and 2011. The forecast was made by the president of the BNDES (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social – National Economic and Social Development Bank, Luciano Coutinho.
Coutinho was making a presentation, August 28, during the meeting of the Council of Social and Economic Development, at Planalto Palace, seat of the government of Brazil when he talked about the subject.
According to Coutinho, total investment between 2008 and 2011 should reach 2.367 trillion Brazilian reais (US$ 1.456 trillion). Of these, 1.511 trillion reais (US$ 929 billion) is already mapped in a trustworthy manner. For comparison purposes, investment between 2004 and 2007 was presented, totaling 1.554 trillion reais (US$ 949 billion).
Considering forecasts, from 2008 to 2011, investment in industry and services should reach 627 billion reais (US$ 386 billion), in infrastructure, 304 billion reais (US$ 187 billion), in civil construction, 534 billion reais (US$ 328 billion) and in livestock farming, 45 billion reais (US$ 28 billion).
Coutinho estimates that the rate of investment should reach 21% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2010. "We are going to reach the end of this year with at least 18% of the GDP [the sum of all that is produced in the country] in investment, and 21% by 2010," stated the BNDES president. Coutinho even hopes to exceed this figure.
In the presentation, to an audience of businessmen in several sectors, ministers of State and parliament members, the BNDES president showed the forecast for growth of the infrastructure sector and of others, like the vehicle, food, textile and health sectors.
According to forecasts by the bank, the sector to receive the greatest investment should be oil and gas, estimated at 269.7 billion reais (US$ 166 billion) in the period from 2008 to 2011, against 147.2 billion (US$ 91 billion) in the previous four-year period. That is not including the pre-salt sector.
Then comes the mining sector, with 80 billion reais (US$ 49 billion) from 2008 to 2011, against 47 billion reais (US$ 29 billion) between 2004 and 2007, and ironworks, which should grow 26% a year between 2008 and 2011.
In the same period, the naval industry should receive investment of 36 billion reais (US$ 22 billion), whereas between 2004 and 2007 investment was just 4.5 billion reais (US$ 2.8 billion). All dollar figures are calculated using current exchange rates for comparison purposes.