Low Inflation and Low Unemployment Spur Brazilian Consumers Confidence

Supermarket in Brazil Brazilian consumers' confidence in the third quarter of this year has reached the second greatest level since 2001, according to the National Consumer Expectations Index (INEC), disclosed on Friday, October 10, by the National Confederation of Industries (CNI).

When compared to the previous result, 109.8 points in July, the confidence index rose 5.3%, to reach 115.6 points. In comparison with the same month last year, when it was 111 points, the increase was 4.1%.

The research, between September 19 and 22, with 2,002 people in 141 cities in the country, shows that consumer optimism is mainly due to inflation expectations and the level of unemployment, which improved in the period.

The executive manager for economic policy at the CNI, FlΓ‘vio Castelo Branco, explained that the INEC results are still very high, as the research took place during a period in which the financial crisis was getting worse. "Consumers answer to the INEC with their pockets, according to their own situation. They participated in the research at a moment of good employment and growing income," he said.

Castelo Branco evaluated that domestic demand is guaranteed in the short term. "For this year we may have maintenance of the rhythm of domestic demand. The doubt is with regard to 2009," he finished off.

All indicators that make up the index grew in September when compared to July. With regard to the same month in 2007, inflation perspectives are worse. The other indices, however, presented increases in the same basis for comparison. The research shows that, different from indices regarding inflation and unemployment, all others have reached the highest levels in the series.

The index that measures consumer intention of buying more expensive goods is also record and showed relevant growth: 4.9% in comparison with July and 8.5% as against September 2007. The expectation for greater purchases corroborates the good moment of the domestic demand, which is still heated.

The index related to inflation rose 7.1% in comparison with July, showing greater expectations, but still registering growth of 4.1% when compared to September 2007. "These figures are explained by the recent reduction of inflation indices as a consequence of lower international prices of commodities," according to the research.

The index regarding unemployment also showed great growth when compared to July (7.5% up) as against September last year (6.2%). According to the text regarding the research, "the index reflects the excellent dynamism of the labour market," which has been presenting high job generation (specially in the formal market) and greater salaries.

The index regarding income of individuals has been growing in the two bases of comparison. With regard to July, the index for evaluation of the financial situation rose 4.2%. And income expectation and debt level indices grew 4.7% and 4.8%, respectively.

With regard to September 2007, the evaluation of the current financial situation has improved 4.8%. The income expectation and level of debt indexes grew 4.6% and 1.3% in the period, respectively. These indices show the increase in income – due to salary negotiation that guaranteed increases over inflation- and good credit conditions.



  • Show Comments (9)

  • Falupa

    Problems with the world
    There needs to be a focus on spurring middle class status in Brazil. Yes people are getting jobs, however there is still a large gap between middle upper and lower social classes in Brazil. I think it is important to make sure that we focus on building stronger social programs. It needs to happen soon too.

  • dnbaiacu

    Spending To Slavery
    Percieved slavery anyway…
    It is so sad that most don’t realize what is going on. Getting addicted to products they really can’t afford. And about to get the carpet pulled from under them. I had a friend in Brazil complain to me today about how much debt he is in now.. BOO HOO. πŸ˜₯ πŸ˜₯
    So much unecessary anxiety.. “FEAR”.
    Then they trick you into thinking your “CREDIT” is so important. Most though , don’t have sense enough to use it for business purposes only. To potentially make MORE money. The creditors COUNT on this. Voila! Part of the mess the world is in now.! Then you have Lehman Brothers robbing everyone. My question is whether the head honcho will ever serve any real time. He was either STUPID or LYING, I believe the later. He was/is part of the scheme. I’d be very surprised if he will be a “fall guy”.
    Crooks and Liars all of them!
    [b]Do not put YOUR trust in nobles,
    Nor in the son of earthling man, to whom no salvation belongs.[/b]
    Psalm 146:3

  • ch.c.

    why do you think that they implemented a “new law” that gets you arrested if you are caught driving with more than 0.1 mg in your blood ? Your guess is as good as mine!!!
    Not really Joao !

    That is the trend all over the world. too many car accidents due to alcohol ! Many countries should do more, far more !

    Outside of this, feel free to find by yourself, how are considered the Brazilians cars & trucks drivers. LOUSY AND VERY DANGEROUS ! Not my statement for those who disagree !

    On my narrated story, I narrated nothing. Just a drag and drop ! And just added my own comments outswide the ” “

  • João da Silva

    Ch.C !
    [quote]That is the typical mentality of losers ! The more complicated it is, the more jobs are created and the more bills have to be paid.[/quote]

    Re the story you narrated: The things have not come to this level [i]yet[/i] in our [i]state[/i]. But, I am afraid it will, starting from 2009.

    BTW, why do you think that they implemented a “new law” that gets you arrested if you are caught driving with more than 0.1 mg in your blood ? Your guess is as good as mine!!!

  • ch.c.

    Psychological Test: After 90 minutes of doing speed tests in 95 degree heat I was exhausted. I had not yet eaten lunch. I am then told to take my results upstairs to wait to be called by the shrink. I sat on the couch and I waited. I felt good about my tests. I thought to myself about some of the drivers I have hired in Mato Grosso. With some of these guys the lights do not go all the way to the top of the Christmas tree. I was wondering if my shrink would flunk me? After 30 minutes I was called in for evaluation. She had my file and knew I was American. She asked about my driving history. She asked how long I have been here in Brazil. I said I was a pilot and she takes note. She asks how much I drink alcohol? I said I do at the end of the week.

    Do you drive she asks? I said no, my wife drives or I use a taxi. We have very strict laws you know? I said yes I have read about them. She then says I will liberate you. You were a little slow on one of the tests. I ask which one? The triangle one she said. However you have zero errors, thus I will approve you. I thanked her but inside I was thinking to myself, À’€œGiven the pace of things in Brazil, and your telling me Kory is too slow?À’€Â Honey, you got to be kidding meÀ’€¦À’€¦..
    I did not say anything. However, for those Gringos reading my story and think your going to come to Brazil and just get a Drivers license in one day, think twice.

    I go downstairs and find Maria waiting for me; exhausted. She looked at me and asked if I passed? I said yes. Very good, Kory the previous 6 that came down flunked. I was in shock. While I was testing Maria was chatting with the office help and they said no Gringos pass the pysch test on their first attempt. After going through 2 hours of it, I can see why. If you have not lived in Brazil for an extended period of time to be at least be able to understand conversational Portuguese and take instruction, you don’t have a chance.
    It only gets more difficult as of September 1, one must hire and attend 15 hours of auto school and pass a behind-the-wheel driving test too. All of this means more money and time.
    If you are thinking this is the end of the story, you are wrong. I still had to get my eyes checked. Keep in mind I started this process at 9 am. It is now 2 pm and Kory needs food.”

    That is one way to create jobs and taxes/fees. No doubt ! Fully proved !!!!!!

    We eat the remaining food that was prepared at a local restaurant. We then proceed to the eye testing place. That was Γ€β€šΒ½ mile in another direction. I walk in and fill out more forms and pay another 50 Reais. Soon thereafter I am called in for eye test and hand strength test. I passed that. The last thing was blood pressure. My blood pressure has always been a little above normal. Because my pressure was high today, the doctor said I need you to see a cardiologist. After all I had been through I felt like I had failed. I cannot go back to DMV today and finish what I have started 10 days and 600 Reais ago. The doctor said I can sign off on you after you have a check up from another doctor. I thought to myself, yes it’s a good idea, but more money, more time, and this is for a fricking drivers license. I have had annual check ups in the USA for my pilots license and the only thing missing today is a rectal.

    In the next week or two I will get checked out by another doctor and then go back and complete my tests. Five days later the driver’s license card will be ready. Six trips and we might get this mission accomplished.

    For those wanting to live in Brazil and maybe even buy land here. Many of these bureaucracy nightmares will come into play with any action one takes in Brazil. I live in Goiania and I can be at the motor vehicle dept in 10 minutes. What if I lived on the farm? Or in a rural farm town?

    If I did not have Maria finessing things today, the above would be irrelevant.

    The file would have been pushed ahead one day and then I would need to comply with new laws and rules. One must have competent, well educated, well behaved, patient people working for you in Brazil or, in my opinion, you don’t stand a chance.”

    Good luck Brazilians junkies. Life is so easier…elsewhere ! Why bother going to Brazil ?????
    Your administrations truly excel in their TOTAL INNEFICIENCIES !!!!!
    You arec clogged, trapped in whatever you do and whereever you go !!!!!
    But bills must first be paid…for the next step and next bill…of course.

    That is the typical mentality of losers ! The more complicated it is, the more jobs are created and the more bills have to be paid.

  • ch.c.

    Yes people are getting jobs,
    Ohhhhh yessssssssss…except that 66 % of the workforce is not in the stats !!!!!!
    And many people got new jobs to your various HIGHLY INNEFICIENT ADMINISTRATIONS.
    A good way to create relatively well paid jobs…totally NON PRODUCTIVE !!!!!!

    I bet, No one trust me, as usual !

    Here is a fairly recent comment from an American residing in Brazil for several years, married to a Brazilian woman, and already have 2 children, of the policies and procedures of how to get a Brazilian driving licence :
    ” Sept 1, 2008
    I have been in Brazil for 5 years. I renewed my Minnesota Drivers license by mail one time. However, Minnesota requires me to show up in person to renew again.
    My Minnesota drivers license expires in October. I thought it was time to get my Brazil driver’s license.
    First Step: You need a photocopy of your driver’s license officially translated into Portuguese.

    My wife prepared me for multiple trips to department of motor vehicles (DMV) in order to go through all the steps. For those that know me I do not have much patience. Brazil loves its governmental beauracracy. The first two trips I sent my wife to do the preliminary steps with regards to my application. Maria paid circa 300 Reais in fees to get my application in the system. We waited for 1 week and then went back as we were instructed. Keep in mind many of the original documents that were requested on visit one were not needed on visit two. They asked for verification of my address in Minnesota. Upon our second visit my Minnesota address was no longer needed. They now wanted a copy of a billing address for my residence in Brazil. We had this in hand and were ready for them. Upon review of this electricity bill, they then asked for a bill with my wife’s name on it. We looked at one another with disbelief. Maria then recognized a person working in DMV that was a former customer of hers when she worked at a clothing store. This person reviewed my file and said everything is on order. You are ready for processing, you just need to pay one more fee.
    Keep in mind were are on trip three to the DMV now. We walk over to local bank and pay the third set of fees. We walk back over to one of the countless processing areas in DMV. We wait and speak to a pleasant man and he says our payment does not show in his system. My supervisor is not here now. Feel free to wait two hours or come back another day. We decide to give it the weekend and be back early on Monday.

    4th trip to DMV – Monday morning Sept 1.
    “We are updating our systems today. Please go to another office and they maybe can help you.” After playing musical offices for 1 hour we finally catch a break. Maria was chatting with a pleasant young man. We are all waiting for a supervisor to sign off on these files. Maria mentions that she has been to federal university in Brazil. Many of the workers inside DMV come from the federal university system. By coincidence Maria and the young man had studied under the same professor. Shortly there after my file came to the top and was reviewed again. I think we can process this now. Please sign here.

    You need to pay one more fee of 119 Reais. These fees are for my psychological testing and eye test. These tests are done about Γ€β€šΒ½ mile away from DMV. One would assume that when one arrives at these locals that all fees would have been paid? That assumption would be incorrect. I walk into the psych testing building and pay another 50 Reais. I am immediately shuttled into a room with others and the teacher is instructing us in Portuguese about the three-phase test that will take 90 minutes to complete.
    Test One: “You are required to draw vertical lines of high quality and as many as you can in a given period of time.”
    I start making my lines on my piece of paper, drew about 1000 1/4 inch lines The room monitor is telling us when to stop and start with the aid of his stop watch. After each set, you count your line and record the number and handed it in. If line quality and spacing are good; you pass. We were given a toothpick in order to count the line.

    Test Two: This is a special workbook that has four diagrams on each page. In the 4th diagram one must put the letter of answer that best completes the problem. Its basically a figure test. In the beginning they were simple geometric forms and they made logical sense. However the last 5 of this 40 problem set were down right difficult. This is an advanced college IQ test. Before I was done the room monitor interrupts a few of us and takes our workbook.

    Test Three: He then starts us on test 3 with others in the room were still working at their own pace. Test 3 is triangle recognition. This test is also timed. We are to mark as many of the 3 triangle designs in the example square. We did not know how long the test would last. After about 3 minutes of marking triangles he says stop. He takes our papers and then gives us our workbooks back. I finish test 2.

  • ch.c.

    Then you have Lehman Brothers robbing everyone.
    Those who took risk, to get 0,2 – 0,5 % to receive higher interests rates, must assume their risks..NOW !!!!!!

    Stupid question : who is robbing who in Brazil, when YOUR LENDERS ARE CHARGING….. YOU THE CITIZENS…WITH 35 % ON CARS, 55 % ON WHITE GOODS LOANS, AND 165 % ON OVERDRAFTS in a 5 to 7 % inflation environment ??????????????

    Applaude them as much as you can !!!!! They rob you so harsh and deep you should beg for EVEN HIGHER RATES !!!!!!
    And present your back to Lula and tell him…….please please fist me more, deeper, you love it that way only !!!!!!

    You are very entertaining !!!!

    And finally what has Lehaman to do with the HUGE CURRENCY LOSSES for Sadia/Aracruz/Votorantim….etc etc !!!!
    Where they not “simply” hedging ????????
    Or…….simply SPECULATED ????

    laugh….laugh…laugh….laugh….laugh….laugh !!!!!!

    Or are you telling us Brazil was responsible for the bull market and foreigners responsible for your bear market ?

    With what money have you expanded your economy. Local financings at a 40 % rate for your mid sized companies, or using foreign firms financings in NON Brazilian currency..and at a much lower rate than in your own currency ??????

    If you can see only NORTH (up), you should also look SOUTH (down)
    After all you are….. in South-America.


  • ch.c.

    hey hey !!!!!!!
    Low Inflation and Low Unemployment Spur Brazilian Consumers Confidence !

    Ohhh yesssssssss…such a low inflation but with such high consumers confidence, junkies are ready to borrow at 35 % for cars, 55 for white goods, and 165 % for overdrafts.

    Ohhhh yessssss…such a high Savers Confidence, they are not willing to lend to their own Government at less than 14 %, or 7-8 % above the inflation rate. Cheaper for your corporations to borrow in foreign currencies instead of in local currency !!!!!

    Ohhh yesssss…such a low Unemployment rate , BECAUSE only 33 % of the workforce is registered. The other 66 %….DONT COUNT…SINCE THEY ARE NOT…COUNTED IN YOUR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE !!!!!!!
    Dont quote me badly, I did not say that you should add 66 % either to your unemployment rate. But in these 66 % a large amount has…NO JOB, NO UNEMPLOYMENT PROTECTION.
    And of those with a job in the informal economy, of course they have wages WELL BELOW the minimum wages…only when they have a non declared job. Otherwise…..outside of the harvesting seasons…NOTHING…BUT CHAFF TO EAT !!!!!!
    On Sundays, they can afford FEISTY special meals…….soyabean meals !!!!!!

    Please just re-read what the article said “which has been presenting high job generation (specially in the formal market)”

    Did I invent anything I wrote ?
    May be, on the soyabeans meals. Reality is that they can afford this every 5 Sundays only. The 2nd Sunday they have to buy….flip flops, the third Sunday it must be a T-shirt, and the 4 th Sunday pay the doctor bills !!!!!!!!

    Reality being that you have tens of millions citizens not doing any better than some SUB SAHARA COUNTRIES.
    Dont tell me this is wrong, because this was said by Wolfowitz, World Bank Previous President…in 2005 or 2006 during a conference he made in….BRAZIL !!!!!

    Yesssssss……Brazil, Yesssss Brazilians, be proud to be ranked as a middle income country…… and have such a high rate of poverty !!!!!
    Earlier with your self boasting attitude you “reduced” your poverty stats using the US$ as a base.
    Now with a 30 % depreciation of your currency, how are you going now to “measure” YOUR POVERTY RATE ?????
    Because obviously your poverty rate…EXPLODED, if still measured in US$ !!!!!
    yessssss…what trick will you find out ? Now measure your poverty rate, when measured in local currency ?

    Or will you find a new trick as you did in your GDP…with your “NEW” Methodology ???????

    Do I rant or do I say the sad truth ?????

    I can only repeat what I said many times : please prove me wrong….if you can…… with stats, facts and common sense arguments !!!!!

  • jon

    I think the toddler is trying to get away from the “detergent packs” πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

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