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Latin America Will Grow Meager 0.3 Says World Bank

Pamela Cox Brazil might do a little better, but growth in Latin America will plunge strongly this year to 0.3%, forecasted Pamela Cox, World Bank vice-president for Latin America and the Caribbean. Last September the WB forecast was 2.7%, in January it was down to 1% and now 0.3%.

Addressing the Ibero-American forum in Madrid, Ms Cox anticipated that impacts will not be the same in the different countries of the region with those closely linked to the US economy and exports "suffering the most," in spite of the very good macroeconomic showing in 2008.

Ms Cox named Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean among the first group and Ecuador and Venezuela in the second.

However countries such as Chile and Brazil will be able to better weather the global slowdown, "the worst suffered by the world in over eight decades." She recalled that the WB forecast for global growth was 1% with leading countries such as the US and the EU recording negative percentages.

Regarding recovery Ms Cox was more cautious and said it was "difficult" to anticipate, but mentioned "two to three years" much of which will depend on the different plans and keeping the tendency to protectionism "distant."

"Protectionist policies will not be good for Latin American recovery from the crisis" said Ms Cox, recalling the debate over the "Buy American" phrase in the US stimulus plan which was finally watered down to some extent in the US Senate.

The WB official also mentioned the impact in several Latin American countries of the fall in remittances from the US and Spain, as well as the credit crunch which will have an impact on investment. In this case she mentioned the WB was working with Mexico and Central America to have remittances delivered through the normal financial system so they could be computed both for consumption and investment.

Finally she spoke about the humanitarian impact on the vulnerable population underlining that the multilateral organization has estimated than another 53 million people will fall into that category, after several years of reducing those numbers.

"For this, developed countries much help by allocating 0.7% of their stimulus plans to the "Vulnerability Fund" established by the World Bank," she said.



  • Show Comments (5)

  • Ric

    When transitioning to jets, one must remember that the jet needs time. Give it time. Forget how many students you taught short and soft field takeoffs in a recip. Don’t pull the nose up on a jet until you have the numbers right. Keep the nose down until you’ve got the speed, be patient, then rotate. Remember Sacramento and the F-86.

    In the current market situation, don’t believe any of this ‘WORST IS OVER” stuff. Go back and read newspapers from the states from 1930, 31, 32. “Now that the depression is over…” and so on. They kept writing that stuff all through the period 1930-1936.

    As the German pilot said in The Three Amigos, “You will know them. You will most certainly know…..”

    In terms of the markets and investing, you’ll know the bottom is in sight when the DJIA and the price of gold in dollars per ounce converge at the same figure. So give it time. Give it plenty of time and ignore your recip instincts. Stay out of Farrell’s Ice Cream Parlor and live to fly another day.

  • sage

    ch.c – outgrowth
    pamela cox has her head up her rear end. do you folks actually believe all the nonsense
    the wb & imf publish.

    switzerland will have negative growth for the forseeable future (alot worse than 0.3% – which btw is a wtd avg)
    switzerland also runs the risk of soverign default, given it’s huge banking exposure.

  • Anderson

    If it remais as mentioned that Brazil and Chile will not feel as much, i GUESS the only countries that are keeping the growth above 0% are Brazil and Chile

    What about Venezuela and all their trading partners?

  • falupa

    Growing at a Meager .3%
    Obviously .3% is much better than most economies are doing right now. To be honest most economies aren’t growing right now. In fact most economies are having trouble right now keeping their currency from inflating

  • ch.c.

    Who’s the midget now Junkies ?
    [quote]Latin America Will Grow Meager 0.3 Says World Bank[/quote]

    Every Brazilian says Brazil is the country of the future.. even my ex brazilian boyfriend used to say the same to me.. HAHAHA Junkies, dream on !

    Your Republic Banana will always be the country of the future, a future that will never be present !


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