2009 Brazil GDP Grows 0.01% and Industry Contracts 7.5%, Say Markets

Brazilian factory Brazilian financial markets expect the economy of Brazil to grow 0.01% this year, according to the Focus Bulletin, a monthly publication elaborated by the Central Bank of Brazil (BC). The previous estimate was for stability in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This year, the financial market forecasted retraction of 0.73%, in the July 1st bulletin, due to the international financial crisis. Four weeks ago, the estimate was for retraction of 0.16%. For 2010, the expectation is still 4.5% expansion of GDP.

With regard to industrial production this year, analysts have adjusted the estimated reduction from 7.24% to 7.53%. For 2010, recovery has been forecasted, with growth of 6%.

Analysts have altered the forecasts for the ratio between the public sector's net debt and GDP, which rose from 43.25% to 43.50% this year and the estimate was 41.20% for 2010. The expectation for dollar rates for late 2009 and early 2010 was maintained at 1.80 Brazilian reais to the dollar.

The forecast for the trade surplus (exports minus imports) this year rose from US$ 25.3 billion to US$ 25.85 billion. For 2010, analysts have adjusted the estimate from US$ 18 billion to US$ 17.8 billion.

With regard to this year's current transaction deficit (purchase and sales transactions of products and services between Brazil and the foreign market), analysts have elevated expectations from US$ 15 billion to US$ 15.550 billion. For 2010, the estimate was expanded from US$ 23.6 billion to US$ 25 billion.

Foreign Direct Investment estimates for 2009 were maintained at US$ 25 billion and, for next year, the estimate was adjusted from US$ 30 billion to US$ 30.3 billion.

ABr

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