The projection of financial institutions for the Brazilian economic growth, this year, has been lowered yet again. For the 11th consecutive time, the growth estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined from 0.86% to 0.81%. The projection for 2015 was also revised down, from 1.5% to 1.2%.
These figures are part of the Focus Bulletin, the result of a weekly poll of financial institutions conducted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) about the main economic indicators. The estimate for the industrial output downturn was kept at 1.53%, this year. For 2015, an upturn of 1.70% is expected.
The trade surplus (positive balance of exports minus imports) estimate was kept unchanged at US$ 2 billion, for this year, and changed from US$ 8.5 billion to US$ 9 billion, in 2015.
As regards foreign direct investment, which goes to the productive sector of the economy, the projection remains at US$ 60 billion, in 2014, and at US$ 55 billion, in the next year.
Oil Exports
Brazil’s state-run oil giant Petrobras plans to export approximately 150 thousand barrels of oil per day (b/d) in the second semester – up 51 percent against the first half of the year.
This forecast, along with other announcements, was made at the company’s headquarters, in Rio de Janeiro, during a presentation on Petrobras’s results in the second quarter, held for investors.
The company further predicts a 4 percent expansion in the production of oil products (2.24 million b/d) in the second semester, compared with the average from the first semester this year – 2.15 million b/d.
Petrobras also announced a yearly production target 7.5 higher than the estimate from last year/
Trade Balance
Brazilian trade balance started August on a deficit. According to data from the period between the 1st and 10th of August disclosed this Monday (11th) by the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC), the deficit amounted to US$ 336 million.
During the ten first days of the month, Brazilian exports amounted to US$ 5.455 billion, averaged at US$ 909.2 million per day, down 6.6% August on August.
According to the MDIC, during the first ten days of this month, manufactured goods sales were down 21% and semi-manufactured goods, down 8.8%. Among the manufactured goods, the main declines could be seen in the shipments of automobiles, planes, cargo vehicles, refined sugar, engines and generators, earth leveling machines, auto engines and parts, and tractors. Semi-manufactured goods saw a reduction in the shipment of semi-manufactured gold, raw sugar and wood pulp.
Base goods exports, in turn, increased by 2.9% during the first ten days of August when compared to the same month last year. According to the MDIC, exports of crude oil, copper ore, soy bran, coffee beans, meat, pork and poultry increased.
Imports increased in the beginning of August and reached US$ 5.791 billion, averaged at US$ 965.2 million per day. These daily figures pose an increase of 5.1% August on August. Among the products, imports of oil and lubricants are up 50.3%, cereals and milling products were up 40.2%, steel products, up 22.6%, organic and inorganic chemicals, up 7.3% and pharmaceuticals, were up 5.1%.
According to the partial results of August disclosed by the MDIC, year-to-date trade balance is posting a deficit of US$ 1.255 billion. At the same period last year, the deficit stood at US$ 4.381 billion. Brazil’s trade flow this year is amounting to US$ 279.275 billion, averaged at US$ 1.849 billion per day, down 1.9% year-on-year.
