Brazil Expecting a 5.6% Inflation Rate in 2005

The forecast presented by Brazilian analysts and financial consultants for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) wandered a tad more away from this year’s Brazil’s official inflation target of 5.1%.
According to this week’s Focus Bulletin, released Monday, November 28, by the Central Bank (BC), projections for this year’s inflation rate rose from 5.53% last week to 5.59%.

This increment reflects higher estimates for this month’s IPCA, expected to be up 0.45%, rather than 0.40%, in last week’s projection.

On the other hand, the Focus Bulletin stayed with its estimate of 0.37% for the IPCA in December and lowered its forecast for inflation over the next 12 months from 4.65% to 4.64%.

The analysts’ predictions continue to diverge from the government’s official target of 5.1% for consumer inflation. The near stability in the three most recent estimates, however, is less abrupt than the bounce from last month, when inflation estimates stood at 5.21% from the "market’s perspective."

When the impact of price readjustments in petroleum derivatives was felt, the analysts’ forecasts, on the average, were revised upward.

At the moment there are no signs of any price hikes in the short run. The BC survey projects a 0.40% increase in the IPCA this month and a 0.37% increase in December, contributing to a slight rise in the forecast for inflation over the next 12 months, from 4.64% to 4.65%.

There exists a slight upward pressure on contractually administered or monitored prices (fuels, electricity, telephone services, water, medicines, education, public transportation, and others). The prediction for the cumulative annual readjustment in these prices and services rose from 7.90% to 8%.

ABr

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