With expectations that exports will reach US$ 95 billion and imports US$ 62 billion, the Foreign Trade Study Center Foundation (Fundação Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior) (Funcex) says Brazil’s year-end trade surplus will reach US$ 33 billion.
Funcex figures for projected future performance are based on past results. Recent past results in foreign trade have been very good.
October exports reached US$ 8.8 billion, an increase of 16.9% over October 2003, while the average daily value of exports in October was US$ 442.2 million, the second highest of the year, up 34.4% over October 2003.
For the last twelve months, exports have risen a solid 30%. Finally, imports in October reached a historic high of US$ 5.8 billion, up 16.1% over October 2003.
The superior, all-around October performance permits a forecast of a strong close for the year.
Fernando Ribeiro, the chief economist at Funcex, says that the organization does not agree with many specialists who insist that Brazil concentrate on exports of high aggregate value.
Brazil has to export everything, he says. The only thing to take into consideration is demand, declares Ribeiro.
As for next year, Ribeiro says there should be a slowdown in international market prices which will affect Brazilian export growth. Export growth will be smaller than this year, he says, around 15%.
Translator: Allen Bennett