By 2050 Brazilians Will Be as Rich as Europeans Were in 2005

Downtown São Paulo, Brazil A study by UK-based consulting company Experian Business Strategies concluded that Brazilians will reach today's European standard of living by mid-century. The analysis just released in London examines the four largest emerging countries in the world that form the BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India and China. And also compares them to the United States.

"Brazil will not be as well as China and India, but it is possible to say that, based on the per capita income, in 45 years Brazilians will have a standard of living equivalent to the one Europeans have today," said the study's author, researcher Peter Gutmann to BBC, which reported the Experian work.

According to the prediction, by 2050 Brazil will triple its per capita income reaching US$ 27,130, but still a little less than what Europeans were making in 2005: US$ 29.470.

The research assumes that Brazil will grow 3.5% a year, on average, for the next four decades, when the country's GDP will be US$ 7.2 trillion, five times bigger than today.

Brazilian entrepreneurs are the most pessimistic inside the BRIC. While only 47% of Brazil's industry leaders are optimistic regarding the coming months, their counterparts in Russia (57%), China (86%) and India (97%) are a decidedly more upbeat lot.

Gutmann reminds, however, that his calculation cannot evaluate how all the money will be distributed, so if Brazil doesn't change its ways, in 45 years it will be a richer nation still with huge gaps between the rich and the poor.

By 2050, the projections show, the per capita income in the United States will have climbed from US$ 41,300 in 2005 to US$ 100,080. By then, China will be the world's biggest economy, but Americans will still have a per capita income 30% bigger than that of China and 350% bigger than the Brazilian per capita income. In China the per capita income will be US$ 74,400 and in India, US$ 36.21.

The study calculates the Gross Domestic Product value of the four countries as well as that of the US, using the PPP or Purchase Power Parity. In 2005, the different GDPs, which are used as base for the calculation are: Brazil (US$ 1.53 trillion), Russia (US$ 1.58 trillion), India (US$ 3.66 trillion) and China (US$ 8.88 trillion).

Gutmann is afraid the planet will not have enough resources to meet the growing population's demand though. He mentions the increasing depletion of natural resources, devastation and worldwide weather changes.

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  • ch.c.

    Revealing analysis.
    But nothing new. Other similar analysis show, simply stated, that by 2050, both the USA and the EU per capita income will still be twice the BRIC per capita income, on a PPP adjusted basis.
    That is already a large difference with the above projections for China and Brazil.

    Furthermore all these projections are somewhat laughable. In the above projections, 3,5 % growth has been used for the next 45 years.
    Just put half a point more or less and the results will be quite different.
    Just put 1 % more or less and the results will be totally different.

    How can any serious analyst predict the average growth rate of all countries, with high accuracy, for the next 45 years ?
    Hop can any serious analyst predict the average growth rate of Brazil at 3,5 % for the next 45 years, when this country did not have this average growth in the PAST 45 years, 20, 10, 5 years, ?????
    Quite cheap….in my view !
    Has Lula not promised a growth rate of 5 % year after year ? Results : 2,5 % ? Laugh….

    Curiously, 2,5 % is also very close to the country 10 and 20 years averages. That would seem to demonstrate that not only Lula lies but also knows that HE lies….in his promises.
    Because at the end as many economists pretend, the Brazilian real problem is the need of far more deep structural changes, that so far no one has yet been changed…… !

    And is it not difficult enough to predict the actual and next year growth rate ? Everyone is wrong anyway and all estimates are constantly changing…everywhere !

    Therefore in my view, concerning Brazil, a more reasonable and realistic projection should be 3 %…..AT BEST !

    And finally, another demonstration of how cheap and erroneous ALL these very long term projections are :
    in the early 1980’s after the 3 first oil shocks, many projections were made that by 2010, We, the world, will have an oil shortage.
    Fortunately, ALL these gloomy projections were….WRONG ! There is no oil shortage YET !
    Now, new projection estimates for the shortage, say that it will be in 2030 for some and 2040 for a few !!!!

    Well well well, ALL these projections were/are just worth the money the writers of these reports make ! A lot ! But not more than that ! Smile

    If a similar projection would have been made when Brazil had a very high growth rate in the 1960’s, using the then growth rate as average for the next 45 years, by 2005/10 no doubt that you should have been VERY WEALTHY TODAY….ON PAPER !!!!!

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