A study by UK-based consulting company Experian Business Strategies concluded that Brazilians will reach today's European standard of living by mid-century. The analysis just released in London examines the four largest emerging countries in the world that form the BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India and China. And also compares them to the United States.
"Brazil will not be as well as China and India, but it is possible to say that, based on the per capita income, in 45 years Brazilians will have a standard of living equivalent to the one Europeans have today," said the study's author, researcher Peter Gutmann to BBC, which reported the Experian work.
According to the prediction, by 2050 Brazil will triple its per capita income reaching US$ 27,130, but still a little less than what Europeans were making in 2005: US$ 29.470.
The research assumes that Brazil will grow 3.5% a year, on average, for the next four decades, when the country's GDP will be US$ 7.2 trillion, five times bigger than today.
Brazilian entrepreneurs are the most pessimistic inside the BRIC. While only 47% of Brazil's industry leaders are optimistic regarding the coming months, their counterparts in Russia (57%), China (86%) and India (97%) are a decidedly more upbeat lot.
Gutmann reminds, however, that his calculation cannot evaluate how all the money will be distributed, so if Brazil doesn't change its ways, in 45 years it will be a richer nation still with huge gaps between the rich and the poor.
By 2050, the projections show, the per capita income in the United States will have climbed from US$ 41,300 in 2005 to US$ 100,080. By then, China will be the world's biggest economy, but Americans will still have a per capita income 30% bigger than that of China and 350% bigger than the Brazilian per capita income. In China the per capita income will be US$ 74,400 and in India, US$ 36.21.
The study calculates the Gross Domestic Product value of the four countries as well as that of the US, using the PPP or Purchase Power Parity. In 2005, the different GDPs, which are used as base for the calculation are: Brazil (US$ 1.53 trillion), Russia (US$ 1.58 trillion), India (US$ 3.66 trillion) and China (US$ 8.88 trillion).
Gutmann is afraid the planet will not have enough resources to meet the growing population's demand though. He mentions the increasing depletion of natural resources, devastation and worldwide weather changes.
