During the 5th Annual Analysts and Investors Meeting, held November 18 to 19 at its headquarters in São José dos Campos, Brazil, Embraer presented its forecast for the world demand of 30-to 120-seat jets and for the corporate aviation market, as well as the 2005 and 2006 delivery forecast.
Embraer foresees a global demand for 7,800 jets in the 30-to 120-seat capacity segment over the next 20 years. The company estimates that 3,200 aircraft will be delivered between 2005 and 2014, with the remaining 4,600 aircraft to be delivered between 2015 and 2024. The total market value is estimated at US$ 170 billion.
According to Embraer’s latest forecasts, the 30-to 60-seat segment, which presented a strong demand in the North American and European markets during the 90s, will feature a more moderate delivery schedule, compatible with other mature segments in the commercial aviation market.
As predicted in previous forecasts, a tendency of growth is expected for all other segments covered by Embraer, specifically in the untapped market of 70-to 110-seat jets.
Embraer’s 2005-2024 market outlook, a detailed report with projections for different market segments and geographical regions will be available in the first quarter of 2005.
A summary of the delivery forecast broken down by market segment and time period is presented below:
Market Segt (Seats) 2005-2014 2015-2024 2005-2024
30-60 650 1,300 1,950
61-90 1,300 1,550 2,850
91-120 1,250 1,750 3,000
Total 3,200 4,600 7,800
In the next 20 years, Embraer estimates that the U.S. market will continue to be the largest, with 4,165 planes, or about 53 percent, of the worldwide demand. The table below shows a geographical breakdown of the market:
Region Aircraft Percentage
USA 4,165 53%
Eur/Africa/Mid East 1,991 26%
Asia Pacific 471 6%
China 635 8%
Latin America 538 7%
Total 7,800 100%
Corporate Aviation Market
Embraer estimates an overall demand for 7,560 business aircraft in the next ten years, which is the same average level reported in the industry.
The super mid-size business jet segment is expected to reach 1,485 units over the next decade. Business jets in the large segment should reach 945 units in the same period.
Delivery Forecast for 2005 and 2006
Embraer maintains its prediction to deliver 145 aircraft in 2004 and the same number in 2005. This estimate takes into consideration US Airways filing for bankrupcy protection and American Eagle’s cancellation of 18 ERJ 145 aircraft, scheduled to be delivered between July 2005 and February 2006.
In 2006, Embraer estimates to deliver 145 aircraft in the commercial, corporate and authorities transportation segment.
In terms of percentages, it is worth highlighting that, in accordance with the new Embraer market forecast, the share of deliveries for jets of the EMBRAER 170/190 family is expected to increase in the coming three years. These will represent, starting in 2005, more than half of the deliveries forecast.
Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A.
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