Brazil GDP Expected to Grow 4.71% This Year and 4.33% the Next

Real, the Brazilian currency Brazilian market analysts slightly increased the projection for Brazil's economy growth this year while reducing the 2008 forecast. According to the Focus Bulletin, released today, November 26, by the Central Bank (BC), the estimate for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the total wealth produced by the country, increased from 4.70% to 4.71%, this year, while it fell from 4.37% to 4.33% for the next year.

The report, which is compiled weekly by the BC, brings together the estimates of about 100 market analysts on the economy main indicators. According to the Focus bulletin, the projection for industrial production growth raised from 5.22% to 5.30%. For the coming year, the estimate stayed at 4.50%.

The analysts also project the relation between the GDP and the Public Sector Liquid Debt to be 43.30% compared to the previous projection of 43.40%. The forecast of 42% of the GDP for 2008 was kept.

As for direct foreign investment (capital invested in the productive sector), the analysts expect it to be US$ 33 billion for the year, with no change from the previous estimate. The forecast for 2008 has also remained stable at US$ 25 billion.

The market analysts kept the projections for the basic rate of interests (Selic) this year at 11.25% and at 10.25% for the next year. Other indicator to remain stable, in the specialists' projection, is the dollar exchange rate, expected to be 1.75 reais, in 2007, and 1.80 reais in the coming year.

The estimate for the trade balance surplus increased from US$ 40.78 billion to US$ 40.80 billion for 2007. In 2008, the expected result went up to US$ 34.60 billion from the previous forecast of US$ 34 billion.

The projection for the current account balance, which involves all the commercial and financial transactions with foreign countries, fell from US$ 8.60 billion to US$ 8.45 billion, in 2007. The estimate remained at US$ 2.42 billion for the coming year.

Trade Surplus

The balance of trade surplus (exports minus imports) stood at US$ 139 million in the fourth week of November, the lowest weekly surplus in the month. From November 19th to 25th, foreign sales totaled US$ 3.5 billion, and foreign purchases stood at US$ 3.361 billion.

According to data disclosed today by the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade, the average daily exports during the week, with five business days, stood at US$ 700 million, and average daily imports closed at US$ 672.2 million.

During the month, the trade balance surplus stands at US$ 1.568 billion, with foreign sales of US$ 10.419 billion and imports of US$ 8.851 billion. The surplus is 35.5% lower than recorded during the same period in November 2006.

In the accumulated result for the year, the trade balance surplus is currently US$ 35.944 billion, a result 12,.1% lower than in the same period of 2006. The accumulated surplus for the year is the result of US$ 142.787 billion in exports and US$ 106.843 billion in imports.

ABr

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  • ch.c.

    The missing (hidden) link !
    – Your government wants you to look only at trade balance, while the current account is far more important since it accounts for both the trade and financial money flow.
    – Your net surplus (current account) is far far lower than your trade balance. This is called common sense diversion ! πŸ˜‰
    – Better yet, the current account shown in the article is BEFORE INTERESTS…….to still make it…..POSITIVE.

    It happens that your net current account surplus is IN DEFICIT….AFTER INTERESTS to the tune of around 3 % of your GDP.

    Please please continue to applaude and look only at your trade surplus. This is exactly what your government wants.
    And they certainly dont want you to know or understand…the real truth.

    Finally dont come back to me and say that I am wrong because you have higher Foreign exchange currencies earning you some interests..
    This would be only somewhat true because the debts your corporations have in foreign currencies far exceed the foreign currencies owned by the government. And it happens that in the current account one has to put ALL the interests received and ALL the interests paid.
    πŸ˜‰
    Same for the FDI. Because you have 2 FDIs : the one coming in…through foreign investments, and the one going out through Brazilian companies investing abroad. And in the current account you have both. Funny that the article mentions only the FDI coming in….noit the one going out….similar to the trade balance accounting.

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