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Why Brazilians Should Demand the Renationalization of Petrobras PDF Print E-mail
2008 - July 2008
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral   
Tuesday, 08 July 2008 15:21

Petrobras headquarters in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil It is imperative that the Brazilian government follow a major global trend and start renationalizing as soon as possible the Petróleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras). Before I describe a plan of action for economic development of the Brazilian economy, I hope the reader understands one major trend that has been in place for a number of years.

Today one of the major sources of funds available for investment around the world is the money being accumulated by many countries in their Sovereign Wealth Funds. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated that these government funds control over US$ 3 trillion dollars in assets. 

A report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September 2007 "The Rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds" said the following: "Sovereign wealth funds are a fairly new name for something that's been around for quite a while: assets held by governments in another country's currency. All countries have foreign exchange reserves (these days, they're typically in dollars, euros, or yen). When a country, by running a current account surplus, accumulates more reserves than it feels it needs for immediate purposes, it can create a sovereign fund to manage those "extra" resources.

Sovereign funds have existed at least since the 1950s, but their total size worldwide has increased dramatically over the past 10-15 years. In 1990, sovereign funds probably held, at most, $500 billion dollars; the current total is estimated to be over $3 trillion dollars and, based on the likely trajectory of current accounts, could reach $10 trillion dollars by 2012.

Currently, more than 20 countries have these funds, and half a dozen more have expressed an interest in establishing one. Still, the holdings remain quite concentrated, with the top five funds accounting for about 70 percent of total assets. Over half of these assets are in the hands of countries that export significant amounts of oil and gas."

On Wednesday, June 13, 2007 I spent the entire day attending a seminar in New York City regarding the current economic development that is under way in Saudi Arabia. At the Saudi government-organized seminar I learned that the Saudis were estimating that oil prices will have a floor price in the coming years around $50 dollars per barrel, and they expect to have a cash flow of at least $ 13 trillion dollars for the period 2007 to 2030. And the estimated cash flow from oil for all the Gulf States in the Middle East; it is estimated to be around $ 25 trillion dollars for the same time period.

In July 2008 the price of a barrel of oil has reached $ 146 dollars and some oil experts are estimating that oil prices will have a new floor price in the coming years in the range of $ 80 to $ 100 dollars per barrel. These estimates are not taking in consideration future declines in the value of the US dollar in world markets, and in that event the price of a barrel of oil would be adjusted accordingly; and in turn it would affect global oil demand and the possible feedback into the value of the US dollar. 

Now if we adjust the present value of the cash flow from oil revenues estimated by Saudi Arabia about a year ago to a new average of $ 80 per barrel then the new figures that they would expect to have as cash flow would be at least $ 21 trillion dollars for the period 2007 to 2030. And the estimated cash flow from oil for all the Gulf States in the Middle East would be around $ 40 trillion dollars for the same time period.

This is the new game in town, and these massive amounts of revenues are the reason why countries such as Russia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and others have renationalized their oil and gas industry in the last few years.

Petróleo Brasileiro SA - (Petrobras)

Today Petrobras is recognized as a leading global company in its field. Petrobras explores for and produces oil and natural gas. The company refines, markets, and supplies oil products. Petrobras operates oil tankers, distribution pipelines, marine, river and lake terminals, thermal power plants, fertilizer plants, and petrochemical units. The company operates in South America and elsewhere around the world. Petrobras is the world's leader in development of advanced technology from deepwater and ultra-deep water oil production.

As of May 19, 2008, Petrobras became the 3rd largest company of the Americas, after Exxon Mobil and General Electric, and the 6th largest company in the world.

In the last year Petrobras found a lot of oil and gas in Brazil including an oil field named Tupi. Petrobras, Brazil's state- controlled oil company, said in November that Tupi holds 5 billion to 8 billion barrels of recoverable crude equivalent, and a Brazilian regulator said last month that a neighboring field called Carioca may have 33 billion barrels. And the forecast right now is that Brazil has a lot more oil resources that will be found and explored in the coming years.

The Renationalization of Petrobras

A key issue in nationalization is payment of compensation to the former owners and in the case of Petrobras they should make a bid for the outstanding shares in the public's hands (55.7% of Petrobras' common shares with voting rights is owned by the Brazilian government; however, the privately held portions are traded on Bovespa, where it is part of the Ibovespa index, and some shares are also traded as ADR's on the New York Stock Exchange) and this bid should take into consideration an average price for a barrel of oil of about US$ 70 dollars per barrel in the coming years.

If some shareholders don't accept the up front cash offer from Petrobras then these shareholders might be able to negotiate a higher price for their shares to be paid over a period of 10 years and be adjusted accordingly to reflect the market price and actual development of this new oil found by Petrobras - in other words, these shareholders would share in the future risks involved in this deal and if the market for some reason manages to go down to the $ 50 dollars level for a barrel of oil, then the payments to these shareholders would be adjusted accordingly.

The nationalization of oil and gas supplies has been going on for many decades and includes countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Russia, Mexico, and Bolivia.

It seems that if oil is so important and so rare, as they tell us, we should have a better control of our own national reserves when we take in consideration that oil is a strategic and economic asset.

One of the central benefits obtained through the nationalization of the oil companies will be the immediate redirection of all accumulated profits towards finding renewable sources of energy to replace oil, the construction of an affordable cross country mass transit system, a high-speed rail network, investment in nuclear energy, investing in high-speed broadband infrastructure, and also investing in some other key strategic infrastructures.

This would lay an infrastructure of transportation for the 21st century that would eventually replace our outmoded highly inefficient highway system that is geared more towards a resource-abundant past and not a resource-constrained future.

The New Economic Development Plan

Brazil would create a new Brazilian government agency to be in charge and to be accountable for the cash flow of money provided by Petrobras; money that would fund all of the suggested investments of the enclosed plan regarding the new economic development plan for Brazil. The new agency would operate with complete transparency to avoid scandals and misappropriations of funds related to all aspects of this new type of financing of very large projects.

The investments would be done taking into consideration Brazil's long-term strategic needs, and here are the main areas for investment in Brazil. I would suggest that the Brazilian government invest at least $ 300 billion dollars in four major areas in Brazil as follows:

1) Nuclear power plants - US$ 180 billion
                                                                                                                   
2) Strategic infrastructure - US$ 50 billion
                          
3) High-speed broadband infrastructure - US$ 30 billion

4) High-speed rail networks - Bullet Trains - US$ 40 billion
                                                                                                                 
Major Investment Areas in Brazil Regarding This Plan

1) Nuclear Power Plants - US$ 180 Billion

I would suggest first, that Brazil invest US$ 180 billion dollars, and use the money to add at least 20 new 1,500-megawatt (MW) nuclear power plants over a 10-year period in strategic areas of Brazil (the cost of each nuclear reactor has increased in the last two years from an estimated cost of US$ 2 billion to US$ 3 billion dollars to the current price of about US$ 6 billion dollars each and the costs are still rising; as the cost of concrete, steel, and other materials are skyrocketing because of global demand), and also use part of the money to do some up-grading of its current uranium enrichment facilities.

Today, Brazil has one plant, located at Resende, less than fifty miles from Rio de Janeiro, and this plant was designed to initially enrich only 60 percent of the material needed to supply their original two reactor plants. Ultimately, Brazil aims for complete nuclear energy self-sufficiency.

Brazil is home to the world's sixth-largest uranium reserves, and developing its uranium enrichment facilities makes economic sense since the global nuclear power plant business is making a comeback in many countries, and it is growing with potentially large commercial global markets as more countries build new nuclear power plants.

Besides the 20 new nuclear power plants, Brazil should invest part of the money in a state-of-the-art nuclear waste reprocessing plant instead of having to find a place to store the spent nuclear fuel. The French already have been using such reprocessing technologies for many years.

Used nuclear fuel (often called spent nuclear fuel) is nuclear fuel that has been irradiated in a nuclear reactor (usually at a nuclear power plant) to the point that it is no longer useful in sustaining a nuclear reaction. If not reprocessed to retrieve the remaining usable uranium and plutonium, it is a form of radioactive waste.

Nuclear reprocessing separates any usable elements (e.g., uranium and plutonium) from fission products and other materials in spent nuclear reactor fuels. Usually the goal is to recycle the reprocessed uranium. It is the process that partially closes the loop in the nuclear fuel cycle.

Use of breeder reactors combined with reprocessing could extend the usefulness of mined uranium by more than 60 times.

The technology for making reprocessed uranium fuel is well established, and there is no technical reason limiting its adoption. And nuclear reprocessing is a much better choice than the one the United States decided to adopt where used nuclear fuel is currently planned for disposal in deep geological formations, such as Yucca Mountain, where it has to be shielded and packaged to prevent its migration to mankind's immediate environment for thousands if not millions of years.
                                                                                                                     
2) Strategic Infrastructure - US$ 50 billion

Developing the proper infrastructure is an important part of an economic development plan and serves as a foundation for any developing country to be able to achieve its goals regarding industrialization, urban development, and speeding up the movement of goods not only for the domestic market but also for international trade.

One advantage of being an emerging country is that you can benefit from leapfrogging in all areas of your economic development when you try to implement the best models that were available around the world at the time - you learn from other people's successes and mistakes.

Today certain types of infrastructure development are a requirement for a country that is trying to achieve economic growth and also is trying to survive in a very competitive global economic environment.

There are various definitions of what constitutes infrastructure, but generally infrastructure refers to the large-scale public systems, services, and facilities of a country or region that are necessary for economic activity to become reality. The economic infrastructure includes such systems as the transportation networks with its highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, and ports, the water and sewerage facilities, the various types of energy distribution (electric and gas), and the various telecommunication networks distributed via cable, fiber optics, or satellite.

These entire economic infrastructures play an important supporting role when a country is trying to secure its place in the global supply chain. It is important for the movement of goods inside the country - local goods or imported goods - as well as for the goods and commodities produced for distribution via international trade.

Let me give you just one example - today Brazil has 47 ports in the country - but the government needs to upgrade at least ten of them to international standards of technology and productivity - this modernization would be imperative to keep pace with Brazil's export explosion in the coming decades. But the government probably will need to build a few more new ports in the future to accommodate the economic expansion that is under way and help to lower shipping costs for Brazilian exporters.

Construction costs for most of the infrastructure systems such as the energy, water and sewage, and transportation sectors are enormous and the construction period is also very long. Prediction of demand pattern and investment allocation, which are some of the key factors of infrastructure development planning, must be based on a long term economic development trend and land use planning, which also predict the country's future demographics and possible economic structure.
                                                                                                                      
3) High-speed Broadband Infrastructure - US$ 30 billion

The federal government in Brazil, in partnership with state and local governments, needs to create and promote the universal availability of high-speed broadband infrastructure throughout the country, connecting the major communities in Brazil with the rest of the world. Today universal access to broadband is in the interest of the majority of the population in Brazil, and it is becoming almost a requirement for a country to be connected with a state-of-the-art high-speed broadband infrastructure to be competitive in the new global economy.

The investment in high-speed broadband infrastructure should be viewed in the same way governments view federal investments in basic infrastructures in a country, such as the highway system, water system, airport system, bridges and tunnels and so on...

Brazil should adopt the leading edge in technology available at the time of its investment regarding high-speed broadband infrastructure, and the government should keep in mind the infrastructure such as the systems in operation in South Korea, Japan and China.

An article published on the San Francisco Chronicle said: "If you live in South Korea, it is an everyday reality to have always-on super fast Internet -- broadband -- both in your cell phone and in your home.

South Korea is the most wired country on the planet. Some South Koreans can get up to 20 megabits of data per second -- breakneck speed by today's standards. Americans are lucky if they get 4 Mbps.

While South Korea leads in the rollout of broadband, the United States -- supposedly the world's technology leader -- comes in no better than No. 13, according to experts. About 76 percent of households have broadband in South Korea. The figure is 30 percent in the United States.
                                                                                                                   
Broadband widens the digital data pipeline to allow complicated files, including pictures, graphics and video, to be downloaded at near-instant speed. Experts consider the development of broadband networks to be the single most important step for expanding digital technology and bringing cutting-edge computer applications directly into people's lives.

"There is no point in Korea where you can stand without receiving a signal," said Joy King, director of industry marketing at Hewlett-Packard. "In the U.S., we are still at the 'can-you-hear-me-now' level. When Europe and Asia are moving to multimedia text messaging, the U.S. has just started text messages. The U.S. is a Third World country in this aspect."
                                                                                                                       
...Silicon Valley used to be hailed as the world's high-tech capital. Now many consider South Korea the king.... U.S. technology leaders are sounding the alarm that the nation is falling dangerously behind in broad areas of digital innovation, including broadband.

...In South Korea the government spent billions of dollars building a fiber grid, reaching schools and government buildings, and offered another billion in financial incentives to phone companies that strung broadband links to homes. Tough competition drove prices down, demand surged and the country was on a roll.

...HP's King cites several reasons for slow broadband development. "North America is lagging because first of all it didn't have one underlying standard," she said. "Secondly (it's lagging) because the government has not really invested directly in infrastructure. "

The US is a generation behind Japan and Korea in high-speed broadband, according to Technology Futures, Inc. While the U.S. languishes at 1 to 6MB/s, Japan and Korea are already rolling out next generation 20MB per second speeds.

On September 7, 2006 Questex Media published an article saying: "Some 62 million Americans are still using their telephone lines to dial into the Internet, according to recent figures from the Pew Internet and American Life Project. Other figures from research firms like Forrester show that only about 40% of Americans have high-speed connections at home, 30% rely on dial-up and 25% don't have any Internet connections at all!

This at a time when China is poised to overtake the US to become the world's largest broadband market. New figures from Ovum show China will have 79 million broadband subscribers in 2008. And overall penetration is just above 3% in China, which means there's plenty of room to grow. Ovum predicts 139 million subscribers by 2010, and a subscription growth rate of 75% annually."
                                                                                                            
On June 26, 2007 DSL News published an article "US broadband speed lags behind" and the article said: "The availability of high-speed broadband in the US is significantly lower than in many other countries around the globe, according to a new report from Communications Workers of America (CWA).

According to the report, the median download speed in the US is 1.9 Mbps, compared to 61 Mbps in Japan and 45 Mbps in South Korea. France outstripped the US on broadband speeds as well, reporting an average 17 Mbps.

CWA President Larry Cohen said: "Speed defines what is possible on the Internet. Speed determines whether we will have the 21st century networks and communications necessary to grow our economy and jobs."
                                                                                                                        
Other nations around the world, especially "economic competitors", have concretely decided to stress high-speed networks and by delaying, America is doing no less than "[putting its] economic growth at risk".

The investment by the Brazilian government in a state-of-the-art high-speed broadband infrastructure around the country will play an important part in helping in the economic development of Brazil in the coming decades.

Private companies and local governments should connect to such infrastructure and supply services to the local populations, but competition between these service providers should help lower the cost of using the system to most customers as is the case in various countries where they have that type of set up.

That type of infrastructure set up is helping these countries not only to keep their high-speed broadband infrastructure at the leading edge of technological development, but at the same time they are able to provide all kinds of state-of-the-art services to customers at the lowest market price possible. Real competition at this level helps to lower the price to the end users.

4) High-speed Rail Networks - Bullet Trains - US$ 40 billion

One of the major infrastructure projects that should be developed in Brazil is the construction of a high-speed rail network in Brazil connecting vital areas of Brazil with a network of high-speed railway lines using the latest in technology regarding high speed bullet trains.

They can start with the construction of a 1,000-mile rail network system that should cost about US$ 40 billion and connect an important area between Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and immediate areas.
                                                                                                                      
Brazil should build a high-speed railway system similar to the one that they have in Japan. The Shinkansen is a network of high-speed railway lines in Japan operated by Japan Railways. These trains can be up to sixteen cars long. With each car measuring 25 m (82 ft) in length, the longest trains are 400 m (1/4 mile) from front to back. Stations are similarly long to accommodate these trains.

Before 1964 conventional trains had to spend more than 6 hours traveling between Tokyo and Osaka (322 miles (515km)). With the introduction of Tokaido Shinkansen, the traveling time has been reduced to 3 hours and 10 minutes. Now the fastest Shinkansen connects Tokyo to Osaka in just 2 hours and 30 minutes.
                                                                                                                      
Even though the fare is much cheaper for a highway bus between Tokyo and Osaka, few passengers choose it, due to more than 8 hours of travel.
                                           
Due to the high-speed railway system in Japan, the trains run speeds have been 443 km/h (275 mph) for conventional rail, and up to 580 km/h (360 mph) for maglev trainsets.

I am not suggesting that Brazil should develop a maglev train system, because of radiation concerns. I am suggesting the construction of the fastest conventional bullet train system available today.

This new bullet train system would help move not only the Brazilian people around, but also would play an important role as Brazil develops further its international tourism industry.

Ethanol

On June 5, 2008 Ethanol Producer Magazine reported on some comments made by President Lula on June 3 at the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization summit in Rome "Brazilian president slams U.S. corn ethanol."

The article said: "Brazil's President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, had harsh comments for the United States' corn ethanol program during his comments June 3 at the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization summit in Rome. "I am not in favor of producing ethanol from corn or other food crops," he said. "I doubt that anyone would go hungry, to fill up their car's fuel tank. Meanwhile, corn ethanol can obviously only compete with sugarcane ethanol when it is shot up with subsidies and shielded behind tariff barriers."

Later in his speech, Lula compared ethanol to cholesterol. "There is good ethanol and bad ethanol," he said. "Good ethanol helps clean up the planet and is competitive. Bad ethanol comes with the fat of subsidies.""
                                                                                                                   
I know that President Lula thinks that Brazil can be the new Saudi Arabia and feed the US energy market with ethanol made of sugar cane, but that concept is complete nonsense.

In my opinion, ethanol made from sugarcane is a good solution for Brazil regarding its energy needs, but it is not a good idea to export this solution to other countries around the world, since we will need all the available land to grow food not only for Brazil, but also to feed other countries around the world.

The world is moving very fast in the direction of future food shortages and there are many reasons for that and it would be criminal for a country such as Brazil that could help alleviate this growing food shortage and help to feed millions of mouths around the world, and instead Brazil uses its valuable agricultural resources to feed car engines of people who don't have even a minimum of common sense since they are driving big gas guzzling SUV's.

I wonder why Lula is even suggesting that Brazil should start exporting ethanol to the United States. The United States has made a long term commitment to supply its ethanol market with ethanol made from corn; besides in the last 6 years, the United States has invested over US$ 1 trillion dollars in Iraq in their pursuit of new sources of oil.

The United States has placed their big bets on ethanol made from corn and in Iraq as a new source of oil, and it will be very hard to turn the tide around on all the vested interests involved in these bets.

The United States should keep the 54 cents per gallon tariff on ethanol from Brazil, or even increase the tariff to US$ 1.00 per gallon, since ethanol imported from Brazil would compete with the ethanol made from corn in the United States and the new ethanol imported from Brazil would help very little and it is not a viable solution to meet the US energy needs.

Brazil should not export ethanol to any other country, and Brazil should use ethanol only for its domestic needs. Today Brazil has its act together and the last thing Brazil needs is for the US market to start sucking the ethanol from the needs inside Brazil and creating further inflation in Brazil.

What the Brazilian government needs to do immediately is to pass a federal tax on ethanol exported to other countries to discourage the exporting of ethanol from the Brazilian local economy.
                                                                                                                  
They are in the process of building another 50 ethanol refineries in Brazil to meet the local ethanol demand in the coming years. Brazil needs all the ethanol that it will produce in the coming years and Brazil can't afford to sell the ethanol to the highest bids from around the world.
   
The Brazilian ethanol export tax should go up according to the price of oil on the international markets and always be a little higher to discourage people from other countries from buying ethanol from Brazil.
                                                                                                                      
Brazil should use its growing agricultural power to grow food, and Brazil can make agriculture in Brazil a more profitable business by moving up on the food chain. Instead of selling the raw materials Brazil can start manufacturing the foods that people want around the world since manufactured products usually have a higher profit margin than raw materials with few exceptions, and oil comes to mind.

Brazil should prepare itself to help feed the growing middle classes in countries such as China, India, and the oil producing countries of the Middle East, since that is where demand for food is going to be coming from, and Brazil can provide food for these markets.

Conclusion

It is imperative that the Brazilian government renationalize Petrobras immediately and use this amazing source of funding to fund the enclosed economic development plan to plant the seeds for Brazil to be able to develop the new economy of the future and to help it to blossom and create millions of new jobs for the Brazilian population.

When the Brazilian government takes action to make official the renationalization of Petrobras, they should also tie it together with the implementation of the enclosed economic development plan; otherwise many people would start wasting away the new money resources on their pet projects and corruption could get completely out of control in Brazil.

This economic plan would place Brazil on a path of economic diversification and the economy of the future. If there is one thing that I don't want to happen in Brazil, it is for the Brazilian economy to start getting dependent only on oil exports as its major source of income at the expense of developing a new economy for the 21st century.

The enclosed plan is a solid plan in every sense, and there is a strong connection binding all the parts of this economic plan together. Some people might question why I included in this plan USUS$ 30 billion for high-speed broadband infrastructure. But that is a major part of the plan because it would help connect Brazil with that type of technology and in turn people and businesses would be able to flourish in communities from around the country and people would be able to find jobs in the areas where they currently live. The high-speed broadband infrastructure would also serve as the foundation and would play a major part in helping in the development of the new educational system of the future that will bring good education to communities around the country through the Internet.

 The high-speed broadband infrastructure would also help to speed up economic development around the country, and local communities would be able to develop local businesses that would be able to sell their goods through the Internet, and people could stay where they live in Brazil today instead of having to go to the big cities to be able to find a job or locate a new business venture.

I used to think that the free market would help solve many of the problems of society including education, infrastructure, and so on...But today I know better and I know that running a country based only on free market principles and the profit motive can take your country in the wrong path and you don't have to look further than the United States to see all kinds of problems getting completely out of control because at the end of the day a system based on greed and wishful thinking can't deliver the best services required by its citizens.

The US economy is in complete disarray today and it does not matter where you look at the system; it is in a massive mess and Americans can't figure out how to fix any problems related to its energy area, healthcare system, educational system, crumbling and obsolete infrastructure, its collapsing financial system, its under funded pension system, and so on...

The free market capitalist system makes the wrong decisions all the time that cost people trillions of US dollars with terrible future consequences for the population, and the sub-prime mess represents only the latest chapter of a massive misallocation of resources.

Here is what I wrote a few years ago on that subject. Quoting from my article published in September 2002 - I said the following: "Countdown to Armageddon".

"...Until recently, I used to believe in a completely free market economy. Today I know there is a place for government regulations and government protection of its industrial base against foreign competition. Deregulation has been a disaster in the U.S. to the airline, the energy, and the telecommunications industries. For example; many airlines are on the brink of bankruptcy in the United States.

Business Week magazine of August 5, 2002 reported that since the Telecommunications Act was passed in 1996 to deregulate the telephone industry, investors have lost over US$ 2 trillion as the stock prices tumbled 95 percent or more from their highs. The crisis could relegate the U.S. to second-class status in the communications industry in the future.
                                                                                                                                         
I used to think that governments at all levels usually wasted lots of money, and that they were a very poor allocator of resources. I used to think that the free open market system was the best allocator of resources. Today I have my doubts about unregulated and a savage and destructive type of capitalism I have seen in operation since the mid-80's. It started with the savings & loan scandals and debacle of that industry in the 1980's and culminated with the latest string of company scandals on Wall Street. I believe that the government has a role in stabilizing the economy.
                                                                                                                       
For years, an overvalued financial market built on misleading and false information sent highly misleading signals to investors who eventually lost trillions of valuable national savings, which were misallocated to unneeded and wasteful investments. Investors lost over US$ 2 trillion in the telecommunications industry and over US$ 1 trillion in the dot.com fiasco. These investments are gone and will have an impact on many people's retirement plans in the future, since a lot of their pension money was invested in these promising areas."

I wrote the above before the latest fiasco of the sub-prime mess and now you can add to the list another major financial scandal that has been cooked up as a new financial innovation, but at the end of the day after the dust settles it looks more like a massive financial scam than anything else.

In my opinion government has the responsibility to invest in some key infrastructure to make sure that the infrastructure is available to help in the economic development of the country. There are many reasons why the private sector would not make these important investments on a timely basis and the state has to fill that void.

Brazil has a very short window of opportunity to implement the renationalization of Petrobras and also implement the enclosed economic development plan since competition from other countries it would make impossible for Brazil to find the necessary technical people and the materials available to build the nuclear reactors and the other parts of this plan.

Today there is major economic development of all kinds of infrastructure that is going on in many countries around the world as never seen before in countries such as Saudi Arabia, China, India, and so on, and there is not enough know how and materials to go around to meet the needs of all these economic development projects. It takes years to build all these new infrastructures around the world, and the countries with the smartest people and with the deepest pockets are the ones that are going to be able to implement their plans on a timely basis.

I hope that we have enough people in the Brazilian government with vision of the future and they have the foresight to see what is ahead of us in the coming years. Otherwise if Brazil is too slow to act then Brazil will continue to be just the country of the future - and that future will never materialize. Brazil has to start moving at the speed of light almost immediately to be able to stay ahead of the pack and achieve these economic development goals.

Ricardo C. Amaral is a writer and economist. He can be reached at brazilamaral@yahoo.com.



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Comments (348)Add Comment
Reply to Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 08, 2008
Here is the article that I had mentioned to you.

If you noticed I made some improvements on the economic development plan for Brazil and I had to adjust some figures because of what has been happening since September of last year when Brazzil magazine published my article about China investing $200 billion dollars in Brazil.

Petrobras it will be a better source of funding for my economic development plan for Brazil, and now there is no excuse for the Brazilian government to not implement the above plan.

This plan puts in place the foundations necessary for all the other pieces to fall into place - a new education system designed for the 21st Century, bring the jobs to where people live today, as job opportunities develops then the crime rate it will go down as people will be able to find new job opportunities.

I am getting in contact with all the members of my family who are involved in politics in Brazil for them to help me to push forward the enclosed economic development plan.

I am also contacting former President Jose Sarney for him to help contact the right people inside the Brazilian government who can help move this plan forward.

Let's put to the test if the Andrada Dynasty still alive and well in Brazil and if our family still have the influence and the power that we had in the past.

It is time to stop talking and instead it is time to start acting and implementing these ideas.

It is show time.

.






Ricardo Amaral
written by João da Silva, July 08, 2008
Hi Ricardo,

Just got to see your article and your message addressed to me. The article is, as usual, rich in details and let me re read it and digest the contents. If you recall one of my comments in your last article, you lean more towards Roberto Campo´s doctrine! I will come back with my comments. In the meantime, just relax and enjoy (as per the advice of our Minister for Tourism)

It is time to stop talking and instead it is time to start acting and implementing these ideas.


You are absolutely right! The entire leadership seems to be running like chicken with their head cut off!!!



Where would petrobras be today if it never sold shares on bovespa/nyse?
written by rrgg, July 09, 2008
Do you think Brazil would have such oil reserves available if Petrobras had remained 100% nationalized? Considering they're extracting under difficult conditions with a lot of risk, I'm not so sure.
So many many mistakes !
written by ch.c., July 09, 2008
- The Brazilian Government DOESNT HOLD AS MANY SHARES AS YOU SAY !!!!!
Petrobras is state-CONTROLLED because most people on the Board are politicians.
The part you believe are in Government hands are in fact in the Brazilian pensions funds ! And the government has relatively few shares.

And the most widely traded Petrobras shares are the ones with the VOTING RIGHTS....NOT those without voting rights !!!!

Therefore by nationalizing the Company, the Government will ALSO have to compensate the Brazilian pensions funds....by definition !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

- And your "Investors lost over US$ 2 trillion in the telecommunications industry and over US$ 1 trillion in the dot.com fiasco. These investments are gone and will have an impact on many people's retirement plans in the future, since a lot of their pension money was invested in these promising areas."

How many hundreds of billions of US$ has Brazil lost over the decades of hyper inflation ?????
To refresh your NON memory, Brazil has taken off 4 times 3 zeroes out of their currency or a total of 12 zeroes !!!!!!
Your pensions funds were so great that even today you are still compensating them by offering the world highest interests rates after inflation.

- And your "When a country, by running a current account surplus, accumulates more reserves than it feels it needs for immediate purposes...."

You are dead wrong ! Foreign currency reserves are NOT for immediate purpose....as the name says......reserves. And to my stupid understanding of...reserves....is by definition----NOT for immediate purpose....contrary to your definition of....reserves !!!!!
Idiots fly high....in Brazil !

- and your "This new bullet train system would help move not only the Brazilian people around...."

Yessss and provide billions US$ of profits...to those who have the technology !
Same for the Nuclear power plants Brazil intends to have.
And same for Boeing and Airbus.
Same for Ford, GM, Fiat, VW etc etc.
Same for trucks.
Fact being that Brazil has Noooo transportation technology ! Not even through Embraer....if you look at the details of the company !

Just 3 proofs within many others of HOW cheap and innacurate your arguments are !

I also draw your attention to the fact that even if in a few years time you export lets say 5 millions barrel per day, you still could not compare with many OPEC nations simply due to the fact that overall they have a small population and Brazil a large population.
Therefore US$ 1 billion or whatever in Saudi Arabia is far more on a per capita than US$ 1 billion in Brazil.
Just look at Mexico and Venezuela ! They both are large producers and exporters since many many years....AND STILL POORS !!!!!
And I bet that at even at US$ 300.- per barrel of oil....they will still remain POORS !!!!!!!

Ricardo...you are a real junkie ! Sovereign wealth funds is the worst thing that can happen. It gives economic and money power to governments officials....NOT to the society...by definition !
And guess where most of the money goes in corrupted countries such as in 90 & of the SWF.....Brazil included ??????? To a few only.....not to the overall society !!!
Except Norway....prove me wrong....IF YOU CAN !!!!!!
Ch.c
written by João da Silva, July 09, 2008
Ricardo...you are a real junkie !


Hey, Ch.c. No name calling PLEASE. Ricardo is also another indignant Brasilian. Point out and correct the mistakes. Also check the numbers. You have plenty to contribute and I look forward to your further contributions to his article.

btw, I knew you would come barging in like a bull in a China shop, like your buddy Berlusconi smilies/smiley.gif smilies/wink.gif smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif
Time has come to get rid off all these Gringos in Brasil
written by ..., July 09, 2008
Kick all these annoying gringo SOBs out of my country… Start with that prick by the name of Bo(bão), the child m******r!

All these f**********.s. do is complaint, compare and bash Brasil, and yet, here they live from the goodness of the people and the land… Go to hell mother.f**kers. Why don’t you go invade China or something? I promise you, we will not miss you miserable scums.

Down with the USA, the home of state sponsored terrorism.

Costinha
Reply to Ch.c
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 09, 2008
I understand why you are against Sovereign Wealth Funds - These funds are taking a lot of business from Swiss Banks - basically your bread and butter.

It does not matter who owns the public traded shares of Petrobras - if they follow my economic development plan millions of jobs it will be created in Brazil and the Brazilian economy it will boom for many years to come.

With the foundations in place the sky it will be the limit for the Brazilian economy and peoples imagination, creativity, and innovation with result in an explosion of opportunities for everybody in Brazil.

I am not going to tell what kind of business people should start or what they should do in the future - I am just creating the tools and the infrastructure for Brazilians to take from then on.

The internet is a fantastic place and opens the door of the world for people to sell their ideas, their goods, and their services.

I believe on the ingenuity of the Brazilian people since they are agile, there are enough people who are very smart, and even the uneducated have acquired survival skills to be able to survive in a country that at one point hyperinflation was running at 19,000 percent per year.

Brazilians learn fast, and they adapt very fast to the new circumstances, and with the help of the Brazilian mainstream media we can put the Brazilian population in the right track, and into the road of prosperity.

I am trying to help build the Brazil of the 21st Century, and I know that Brazilians will embrace the new future when they can see the new prosperity all around them with great new opportunities for anyone who want to improve their lot in this new prosperous Brazil that we are going to build.

For your information today Petrobras is becoming a global leader in that industry and they are developing state of the art new technologies and they are operating at the leading edge of the new technologies.

You are a fool if you underestimate the capabilities of the new Petrobras.

It is not my business and I don't care how they run things in Venezuela or Mexico.

I care about Brazil and I am telling you about what we are going to do in Brazil.

You don't get it even when I am spelling out in detail the plan to develop the Brazil of the future.

With that kind of leverage that comes attached to my economic development plan the people who are going to get the big contracts would have to build plants in Brazil and transfer new state of the art technologies to Brazil and it would create millions of new jobs for the Brazilian population.

With a $ 40 billion dollar contract to build bullet trains as part of the contract all these requirements it would be spelled out, and that also applies to all areas of this economic development plan.

When my plan is being implemented it will extremely beneficial to millions of Brazilians who are living in poverty today. My plan is going to help to lift millions of new boats in Brazil as the Chinese have been doing in China for many years.

I am 100 percent sure that implementing my plan is the way to go in Brazil.

.






Reply to RRGG
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 09, 2008
RRGG wrote: “Do you think Brazil would have such oil reserves available if Petrobras had remained 100% nationalized? Considering they're extracting under difficult conditions with a lot of risk, I'm not so sure.”


****


You are thinking about the past and a world long gone. My plan is about the future and the new possibilities.

The answer to your question is yes.

After the renationalization, Petrobras will be able to continue operating at the leading edge of technology and also it will be able to find more oil as never before using the new tools available that are available today.

You should read the following books and you will learn how Petrobras can tap on global know how and find new oil faster and in larger quantities than ever before.

Book:

Wikinomics – How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything.
By Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams

The other book that also would help you understand why my economic development plan is so important for Brazil is as follows:

"Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism"
by Ha-Joon Chang (Bloomsbury Press, 2007)

.

João da Silva
written by angelinajolie, July 09, 2008
Dear João,

In your statement to Ricardo...............................

"You are absolutely right! The entire leadership seems to be running like chicken with their head cut off!!! "

Actually João, it is much, much worse than that..........how do you differentiate between a gay leader and a patriot? What if a puppet leader who decides to be the next Prime Minister who only bend down to it's paymaster? The worse part is the most unimaginable one.....when buch of fanatics supporters who just refuse to belief and simply following this gay leadership style without any knowledge or what so ever..........


Reply to angelinajolie
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 09, 2008
Lula is not gay.

Who are you implying to be gay?

I have no idea what you are talking about.

Are you implying that some current Brazilian government official is gay?

What that have to do with the economic development plan described on my article?


.

Sorry for being too emotional
written by angelinajolie, July 09, 2008
Ricardo,

Lula is not gay. I am too emotional lately regarding the cloudy situation in my country. Anyway, please check your email and once again thousand apologies.............
...
written by Surmoka, July 09, 2008
Your statement about the "radiation" of Maglev is false.
You only seem to know the Japanese Maglev; while this generates a strong magnetic field, it is still not "radiation". But the most important aspect is that Germany (Siemens ThyssenKrupp) have the most advanced maglev system in the world, already operational in Shanghai, China, without any noticeable magnetic field in or around the train; "radiation" concerns are fully undue.
Reply to Surmoka
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 09, 2008
You said: "Germany (Siemens ThyssenKrupp) have the most advanced maglev system in the world, already operational in Shanghai, China"

What kind of speed they can travel on these trains when compared with the Japanese version?

.
RA & JOAO
written by Forrest Allen Brown, July 09, 2008
your hole plan depends on the brasilian government

DOING THE RIGHT THING

for the people and not them selves .
and when was the last time they did that .

and if you did manage to do it the so called millions of jobs
what would they pay the same old thing little of nothing to the
people that do all the real work .

to build the interscuter that brasil needs would take
50 years minium just to start .

you would have people sue over lands lost ,
pipe line right of ways , cable right of ways .

then the government starting from top to bottom
all taking there little bite off the top
whitch would drive up the total price of the projects .

china can move mountians because it is a state run country brasil is not .

most brasilian compaines would rather sell over seas to make a better profit than selling at home , plenty of proof of that in food prices now in brasil .

getting certifide steal , welders , inspectors , would be hard
as no schools to teach proper way to do so .

then you have the pay offs to all invloved .

i am not saying it cant be done
BUT NOT LIKLEY IN OUR LIFE TIME JOAO

Reply to Mr. Amaral
written by Laurence Blow, July 09, 2008
Surmoka said: "Germany (Siemens ThyssenKrupp) have the most advanced maglev system in the world, already operational in Shanghai, China" and this is exactly correct. Further, it is absolutely true, as Surmoka points out, that the German Transrapid maglev "is without any noticeable magnetic field in or around the train; "radiation" concerns are fully undue."

I am a maglev proponent who has personally witnessed scientific field testing of the Transrapid system for issues concerning noise, vibration and electromagnetic field ('radiation') effects. Technical reports are available for anyone interested in finding out the real information.

And Mr. Amaral asked, "What kind of speed they can travel on these trains when compared with the Japanese version?" The Transrapid from Germany runs in daily commercial service in Shanghai at 430 km/h, or 267 mph, along its 30-km/19-mile route. It has been run at 500 km/h, or 311 mph, in a special test in November, 2003.

The Japanese maglev set a world speed record if 581km/h, or 361 mph, at its Yamanashi Prefecture test track one month later.
Small complement
written by Surmoka, July 09, 2008
As Mr. Blow precisely cited the numbers, it is maybe worth to add that the Transrapid Maglev is certified for 500km/h cruising speed in general, by the most rigorous testing procedure ever applied to any ground transport system; and it is the sole transport system in the world certified to run at this speed.
Ricardo
written by Shelly1, July 09, 2008
Great article. I will have to digest the information, very complex. However, your plan will only work if decent candidates are elected. The Cronies in power at the moment would do a misery with the plan.

I totally agree with you, in transportation we need to develop better road system, trains system and revamp our ports. Most importantly, invest in our military, we need to be able to protect ourselves from any other country. Let it be Venezuela, America, etc.

However, you forgot to mention one thing: have you set a plan for education reform? How much money would you invest and how would you raise funds?


I hope that we have enough people in the Brazilian government with vision of the future and they have the foresight to see what is ahead of us in the coming years. Otherwise if Brazil is too slow to act then Brazil will continue to be just the country of the future - and that future will never materialize. Brazil has to start moving at the speed of light almost immediately to be able to stay ahead of the pack and achieve these economic development goals.


We need people like you, joao and a few others here to be elected officials.
RA
written by Shelly1, July 09, 2008
With that kind of leverage that comes attached to my economic development plan the people who are going to get the big contracts would have to build plants in Brazil and transfer new state of the art technologies to Brazil and it would create millions of new jobs for the Brazilian population.


Exactly, Brazil is ONLY buying current technology that has a transfer clause attached to the proposal.
Ricardo Amaral
written by João da Silva, July 09, 2008
Hi Ricardo,

Let me first congratulate you for a well written article. It takes plenty of time to research facts and stats to come out with a comprehensive plan like this. After re reading I found that this plan is really an updated version of your previous one which was discussed throughly on this forum. If you recall, I never questioned you about the need for such a plan for Brasil of 21st century, but stressed on the urgency for the government to take a look at it. I have not read about any minister of state coming with any plan for anything. Here we have a viable plan that can be implemented with fruitful results.

The formidable task now is to convince a government to reverse a policy that was implemented by its predecessors and still practiced by it. FHC´s government opted to sell the state owned companies and set up regulatory agencies to dictate policies and invite private companies including foreign ones to invest in building infrastructure.I don't know if you are aware that in the Northeastern part of the country, the Spanish companies are investing in building Toll Highways, Power plants, etc; and the regulating agencies conduct the auctions for concessions and then monitor the results.

So the tendency is not to re nationalize any company or resurrect the extinct ones like TELEBRAS. However, it is worth sending the article to all your friends and family members in Brazil emphasize the importance of your plan for Brazil. One never knows. Some with great vision may take this up as a worthwhile cause to fight for. It is worth trying and failing than never to try.

I enjoyed reading the article and thank you.
Forrest
written by João da Silva, July 09, 2008
your hole plan depends on the brasilian government

DOING THE RIGHT THING


I agree with you. That is precisely the reason why I would like RA to go ahead and interact with his family members and friends to convince the government to do "the right thing". Some people have to speak up boldly like we do and start demanding action from the government! I take such plans seriously and it is high time the idiots in power do so.

btw, did ya read the comments of Laurence Blow and Samurka on Maglev system of transport? I went through Laurence Blow´s site and it is very interesting. I suggest you too do it.
JOAO
written by Forrest Allen Brown, July 09, 2008
would never work in this brasil we have now.

to many things to go wrong and to high teck to work all the time with the mintel midgets in charge .

they would want there sisters husbands brother inlaw to be the driver
of the ground rocket , because he ran a taxi in rio for 5 years .

good read though
Forrest
written by João da Silva, July 09, 2008
would never work in this brasil we have now.


Right. It would have worked during Geisel/ Figueiredo´s governments. Do you remember "A Brazilian" mentioning several times that those governments did not oppose new ideas?

to many things to go wrong and to high teck to work all the time with the mintel midgets in charge .

they would want there sisters husbands brother inlaw to be the driver
of the ground rocket , because he ran a taxi in rio for 5 years .


Right once again. It is so frustrating to talk to such "midgets" and the "cunhados" who are so irrational and illogical!

good read though


That is a compliment to RA and I fully agree with you.
Forrest
written by Shelly1, July 09, 2008
would never work in this brasil we have now.


I debate with the above quote CONSTANTLY. However, as a woman in a macho society, it will be difficult to get anything done (or taken seriously). I have been warned by fellow Brazilian and Americans that it is a tough road. There are 5 new nominees to replace Marina da Silva, one of them is a dear friend of mine. How many women are on the list? 1!

We have so much to sort it out, that I am loosing hope. Not in my generation or my kids generation will Brazil get out of this mess. Deep inside I have a flicker of hope, but the news we hear are a sharp blunt on a helium balloon.
...
written by João da Silva, July 09, 2008
There are 5 new nominees to replace Marina da Silva,


Marina da Silva was replaced a long time ago by Carlos Minc Baumfeld, trained at Sorbonne. A good friend of Ch.c.
Shelly…. Is that You???
written by ..., July 10, 2008
She finally came out to play and for a starter, I am impressed. Look at what she says:
“ Most importantly, invest in our military, we need to be able to protect ourselves from any other country. Let it be Venezuela, America, etc. “

Now, that’s something coming from Shelly… I think it’s time for me to “Pedir Arrego da Shelly Michellie.”

However, I think you forgot something… “We need people like you, joao and a few others here to be elected officials” TO MENTION MY NAME!

God damm it…

Costa
...
written by Tim Graf, July 10, 2008
Seeing that overwhelming accumulation of facts in the article of Mr. Amaral its strange to see such a mistake like that of "radiation" of maglev trains. Additionally to that what was written in other comments to this mistake: world speed records, which have been achieved and proudly presented mainly by the manufacturers of french high speed rail systems are very expensive and quite useless. These records always and only can be realized within special testing environments and circumstances. Beside that it should be undisputed, that a frictionless system is much faster on its way than any other ground connected system - at least during public service operations, where you have no record environment on one hand and on the other hand due to maglevs uncomparable capability of acceleration and deceleration. Additionally to that a frictionless high speed system demands considerable less efforts to maintain and allows uncomparable high speed within densly populated areas (even with 125 mph / 200 km/h it is nearly soundless).
Track record of Brasilian politicians maybe a risk factor dont you think?
written by John Miller, July 10, 2008
As a taxpaying Brasilian resident, the idea of our Government owning Petrobras, then pissing all that profit away by lining the pockets of our self serving politicians is one of the worst nightmares I have.
I would love to live the dream that Ricardo Amaral describes above, but the track record of our politicians is such that it would not happen. And until the politicians of this country demonstrate that they are serving the interests of Brasilians ( and not there to feed themselves like pigs snorting up on a Xmas banquet), the only remedy I have is to starve them of funds. I am therefore compelled to suggest that the answer is not MORE government ownership of anything in Brasil, but less government ownership.
As an example, in 1996, I bought my first phone line(fixed) in Rio and it cost US$6000 more or less. This was when the Brasilian states and federal government owned all telecommunications in Brasil. And the government was still somehow managing to lose money on telecommunications when it was a monopoly.

Role forward to now, and the government is making an absolute fortune from telecommunications ( via a 38% Tax on all telecomms charges and licences/auctions for new spectrum), and does not own anything, except a string regulatory authority.

Now do the same with Oil. 10 years ago, it was costing Petrobras US$40 a barrel to pump oil up from the ocean floor in Macae/RJ. Now they can extract for around US$12-20 depending upon who´s numbers you want to use. And the Brasilian government is making MORE money than ever.

Brasil does not need to OWN Petrobras, or any or all of the oil industry in Brasil, just a strong regulatory / licensing framework combined with a TAX regime that balances risk & reward, like they have done in the Telecommunications industry.

And that is what the Brasilian government should do for INFRASTRUCTURE & ENERGY as well!
Create an environment where private enterprise can invest confidently while the government maintains tight control and both parties share in success (the private investor thru profits, and the brasilian government thru taxes and license revenue).

And to sight some examples where Governments have not gone the path of SWF, take Australia as example. Huge natural resources(iron core, uranium, gold, gas, and yes the ubiquitos coal), NONE of this owned or mined by government companies, but huge taxes and licences paid by the companies operating these mines that the Australian government can then spend of social development, public health, education, etc,



IF THE PEOPLE
written by Forrest Allen Brown, July 10, 2008
would spend more time making the government work for them than

tracking the lives of the rich and famous , the world would be a better place .

or have the press go around taking pictures of all the government officals at work and play to show the people what they do with your tax money . homes , cars , land , vacations , boats ,planes , whores ,

showing when they should be at work and why they are not .

but that is just my way of thinking
would be fun to watch them try to explain
what they are doing

To RRGG and Ricardo !
written by ch.c., July 10, 2008

- RRGG : of course you are dead right !!!! Brazilians have no memory.....on purpose !!!!! They have even many critics against those who
had to guarantee their 1980's Government borrowings to avoid the country going BANKRUPT ! None of junkies here even know what Brady Bonds were.
They were US Brazilians Government borrowings, with part of the guarantee coming from...the U.S.A. guarantee !!!!!

- To Ricardo "I am 100 percent sure that implementing my plan is the way to go in Brazil."

To my knowledge you were also 100 % sure....of your previous plans...that did not come as reality...and that you keep changing twice a year or so ! Changing your long term plans twice a year doesnt show you have a clever LONG TERM vision.....by definition !!!!!

On a lighter but sarcastic note let me conclude and agree with you somewhat : Yessss.....Nationalize your oil fields in 2008 or 2009....paying top prices to the actual shareholders, foreigners or locals.
You will still have the possibility to DE-NATIONALIZE once more at much lower prices.....several years later...when oil prices will revert to their long term average... !!!!!!!!!!!!

You like to buy high and sell low ? Great idea !!!!
Such as accumulating the US$ daily when it declined for years ????

I prefer the opposite....if you dont mind !!!!!!!

Laugh....laugh....laugh....laugh....laugh !!!!
...
written by João da Silva, July 11, 2008
Brasil does not need to OWN Petrobras, or any or all of the oil industry in Brasil, just a strong regulatory / licensing framework combined with a TAX regime that balances risk & reward, like they have done in the Telecommunications industry.


Agreed. But the "strong regulatory/ licensing framework" is filled with political nominees, INCLUDING the "Telecom Industry". Believe me when I say this.Look at what happened in ANAC.

And that is what the Brasilian government should do for INFRASTRUCTURE & ENERGY as well!
Create an environment where private enterprise can invest confidently while the government maintains tight control and both parties share in success (the private investor thru profits, and the brasilian government thru taxes and license revenue).


Agreed. But the environment has not been created nor will it be in the foreseeable future.

And to sight some examples where Governments have not gone the path of SWF, take Australia as example. Huge natural resources(iron core, uranium, gold, gas, and yes the ubiquitos coal), NONE of this owned or mined by government companies, but huge taxes and licences paid by the companies operating these mines that the Australian government can then spend of social development, public health, education, etc,


The Ozzies are quite educated and they demand their rights as citizens and if they don't like their PMs, they just get rid of them, like the Canucks do. Look what happened to John Howard recently.

The problem with us is that we do not know how to piss of our elected officials by asking them one important question: "How do you expect to solve this problem?". 99% would say "I don't know" and if you give a solution, they would embrace it as their own "innovative" idea and implement only 10% of the original idea and put the blame on you for not having been more detailed.

Ricardo and I are idealists and we like to get the job done (like we always do) and to see the dream coming true. If you guys want to correct us, you are most welcome. But, don't classify us as dumb arses.

Ch.c, are u listening to my lecture?
Congratulations to Rodney Mello - Editor of Brazzil Magazine.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 11, 2008
Yesterday, I received an email from RGE Monitor saying that they are going to reproduce my piece granting credit to Brazzil Magazine. You can see the actual article and the comments at the following location:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/lata...tion_of_p
etrobras



Under the leadership of Professor Nouriel Roubini, RGE Monitor became a very prestigious and influential global economics website in a short period of time.

It is an honor for me to see my article published with such an elite group of economic and political experts.


About the RGE Monitor

Nouriel Roubini is Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and Chairman of RGE Monitor -

http://www.rgemonitor.com


Professor Nouriel Roubini is quoted frequently on the mainstream media, because he has an excellent track record. And his forecasts about the US economy have been very accurate.


*****


If you never heard of RGE Monitor, then here is information from their website:


About Us

RGE Monitor delivers ahead-of-the-curve global economic insights that financial professionals need to know. Our analysts define the key geostrategic debates and continuously distill the best thinking on all sides. This intelligence, along with exclusive analysis from internationally-known experts, is accessed through a powerful Web interface that provides both focused snapshots and deeper perspectives. Whether you are establishing direction, executing transactions, influencing decisions or performing in-depth research, RGE Monitor is your essential resource.


Our Story

RGE Monitor was founded in 2004 by a prestigious team of economic and political experts. Today, thousands of senior managers at first-tier public and private financial institutions rely on our insights. Our clients include prominent asset managers, hedge funds, commercial banks, investment banks, policy organizations and universities. Thanks to our innovative content and services, RGE Monitor has been named one of the world's best economics websites by BusinessWeek, The Economist, Forbes and the Wall Street Journal.

.
You have to put things in the right perspective...
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 11, 2008
By the way, I will be very surprised if there is any comments in favor of my plan from that particular audience at RGE Monitor.

I understand the reaction that I am going to get from these people from hedge funds, mutual funds, all kinds of banks, insurance companies, pension plans, private investors and so on - keep in mind that all these people are aware that Petrobras is becoming a major gold mine with great prospects for the future.

And many of these institutions and people own a piece of Petrobras and my article is saying to all these people I am going to take this gold mine away from you.

.
Elite Trader Forum.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 11, 2008
There is a discussion about this article also at Elite Trader Forum at:

The Coming Renationalization of Petrobras

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...did=131138


.
Hey. I meant no offense...and certainly not classifying
written by John Miller, July 11, 2008
You said:
" Ricardo and I are idealists and we like to get the job done (like we always do) and to see the dream coming true. If you guys want to correct us, you are most welcome. But, don't classify us as dumb arses. "

Hey. I meant no offense with my comments, and I certainly did not want to come across as patronizing, or interrupt a mutual back patting society. I dont recall anywhere insulting anyone except Brasilian politicians, which I have to say, there are some good ones, but gees, there are some absolute shockers there in Brasilia as well ( Do I have to mention names?). So, keeping in mind that this is a forum for comments, and that I reserve my insults for the worst of Brasilian politicians (re: Jader B, Maluf, etc.), I hope that my comments were seen as intellectually contributing to a healthy discussion. (PS. I like Ricardo, I read his stuff all time, I agree with him on some things, others not so.) I for one, dont think I will change Ricardo's opinion, but I am pretty certain he at least respects mine, as I am sure you do as well.

As you stated, you and Ricardo are idealists, and I think that is wonderful, the world needs people to aspire to idealist ways, aim high I say.

The background to this discussion was to use the windfall from Oil to build national infrastructure/education/health systems, etc, something to be applauded. Ricardo approach is for the Government to own Petrobras to do this. I think a better way is to let private enterprise manage the oil exploration/extraction, and then simply tax the hell out of it, like what is done in the Brasilian Telco industry(albeit the tax level now is becoming a drain on national competitiveness, and needs to be cut
John Miller
written by João da Silva, July 11, 2008
Hey. I meant no offense...and certainly not classifying


John, I did not imply that you were offending us and if you thought so, my apologies. I have read many of your comments and they have always been positive contributions to the discussions and I enjoy reading them.

My latest comments were aimed at the ruling class of politicians many of whom you know at least by names (if at all they read our comments)! You must have run into many people who read a plan, say "Não vai dar certo" and put it in the desk drawers to be used later to their advantages!

The background to this discussion was to use the windfall from Oil to build national infrastructure/education/health systems, etc, something to be applauded. Ricardo approach is for the Government to own Petrobras to do this. I think a better way is to let private enterprise manage the oil exploration/extraction, and then simply tax the hell out of it, like what is done in the Brasilian Telco industry(albeit the tax level now is becoming a drain on national competitiveness, and needs to be cut


You are right.

No offense meant, mate. Keep blogging and express your opinions freely. After all you are also a tax payer in Brazil, without getting much in return!!

Reply to John Miller and Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 11, 2008

You are both right about one thing. I am aware that I have been an idealist my entire life – it is deep rooted on my genes and DNA, and there is nothing I can do about that.

I was fired over the years from at least 3 jobs because I did not bent to a corrupt system, and because I wanted to do the right thing, and because of that I was severely punished by the system. Over the years I had the opportunity to line up my pocket with millions of dollars if I were a crook, but I did not. I can walk anywhere with my head up and I don’t have to worry about that people are going to accuse me of some wrongdoing. I went down a number of times, but I kept my personal integrity intact.

Many of my ancestors had high character, ethics, integrity and they were highly idealists, and they became great man despite these drawbacks. Today people with these types of characteristics are looked at as a bunch of naïve people and fools.

I am one of them and there is a high price to be paid for anyone to belong to this group of fools.

Let me give you some concrete examples about 4 of my ancestors that fit that mold.

First the biggest idealist of all, Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Patriarch of Brazilian Independence).

A lot of things that he did on his life he accomplished because he was an Idealist. For a period of 20 years from 1799 to 1819 Jose Bonifacio assumed one responsibility after another in Portugal (if you don’t know that portion of Jose Bonifacio’s life I can post a follow up posting with that information, but he has more responsibility than you can imagine, and basically he was the Treasurer of the Portuguese Empire at that time).

Among his duties during that time he was also the main judge on the court of the city of Port in Portugal for a period of 19 years a position that he assumed on pure idealism, and he never asked for the Portuguese government to pay him for that work.

Jose Bonifacio could have gone to Brazil in 1808 with the Royal Family and the Portuguese Court to run away from the French invaders to Portugal. He was asked if he wanted to return to Brazil with the people who was running away, but he decided to stay in Portugal and defend Portugal from the French invaders, and he did that because he knew that his knowledge about chemistry would be vital in building the weapons necessary to fight the war against the French invasion. During that time he became a highly condecorated hero fighting bravely in defense of Portugal against the 3 French invasions that they had at that time.

During the period of Brazilian independence in which Jose Bonifacio played a major role – when he were Prime Minister the Emperor offered to give Jose Bonifacio anything he wanted, but he old man declined because he was not doing anything because of the money – he was doing it because of his idealism.

On at least 2 or 3 opportunities Dom Pedro I asked Jose Bonifacio to become the Emperor of Brazil and Jose Bonifacio declined every offer because he was doing all the things that he did based on pure idealism.

His brother Martim Francisco, another ancestor of mine also did great things all his life because he was an idealist to the extreme like his old brother. In a nuthshell for the people who does not know Brazilian history, Martim Francisco is for Brazilian history the equivalent of what Thomas Jefferson represents to United States history.

Then came my great great grandfather Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (O Moco – The Young). He was a son of Martim Francisco, and a grandson of Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Patriarch.)

Besides being one of the greatest literary figures of his time in Brazil, he could have had any position he wanted on the government of Dom Pedro II. But JBAS (The Young) after serving as a Minister in various areas of the government he was elected Senator representing the State of Rio de Janeiro and he biggest claim to fame as a senator was that he continued the fight that his father and his grandfather had started in the early 1800’s – the fight to end the system of slavery in Brazil. His life story was also based on idealistic principles.

There were also other important members of my family from the Souza Queiroz side who played major roles in the history of Brazil and who also were idealists such as Senator Nicolau Pereira de Campos Vergueiro. He had a rep**ation of being competent, and of having good character, integrity and he was also an idealist.

Senator Vergurio’s daughter married my great great grandfather the Barao of Souza Queiroz one of the most powerful man in Brazil for most of his life.

When Dom Pedro I abdicated the Brazilian crown on April 7, 1831, in favor of his five year old son, the future Dom Pedro II, based on the 1824 Constitution, congress had to elect three people to the provisory regency. And among the 3 people who became regents Senador Nicolau Pereira de Campos Vergueiro was chosen because of his prestige as a senator, and integrity.

.
Reply to Shelly
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 11, 2008
Shelly said: “Great article. I will have to digest the information, very complex. However, your plan will only work if decent candidates are elected. The Cronies in power at the moment would do a misery with the plan.”

… Most importantly, invest in our military, we need to be able to protect ourselves from any other country.

… However, you forgot to mention one thing: have you set a plan for education reform? How much money would you invest and how would you raise funds?


********


First of all, today we have the tools to fight corruption, as we never had before. And it would be imperative that we adopt these tools in Brazil to guaranty the honesty and accountability regarding the system.

I would suggest that the Brazilian government adopts the system that they have in place in Singapore – government official are paid top dollar for their services, but if they get caught in a corruption case then they are out of luck and are severely punished.

There will be room for people to make honest mistakes since in an innovative system you need room to let people try new ideas even if they fail. But it will not have room for fraud, scandals, and any kind of dishonest behavior.

When the new system is in place I would create a wiki system on the internet to ensure government accountability and transparency about government contracts, and as part of this new system I would have an area where people could bring up wrongdoings, and possible cases of corruption.

As I said before the people caught on corruption cases would be severely punished under the new government law.

I want to make clear to everyone one major point. What I am suggesting on my article is a an unique package including an specific part of government economic development plan and an specific source of funding for that particular plan.

As you mentioned on your posting the military expenditures, educational expenditures and so on it will continue to be part of the regular Brazilian government annual budget as we have today. And that regular budget would also include other investments for infrastructure and so on…space program, funding for the arts, and all the other usual expenditures that people might think that are necessary for the federal government to fund.

My economic development plan is a long-term project that should be independent from the regular Brazilian government annual budget that fluctuates accordingly to the way the wind is blowing at that time.

I hope the above answer was able to clarify to you the purpose of my economic development plan for Brazil in relation to the usual annual government budget.

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Reply to Ch.c
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 11, 2008
Ch.c wrote: “To Ricardo "I am 100 percent sure that implementing my plan is the way to go in Brazil."

To my knowledge you were also 100 % sure....of your previous plans...that did not come as reality...and that you keep changing twice a year or so ! Changing your long term plans twice a year doesn’t show you have a clever LONG TERM vision.....by definition !!!!!”


******

Reply:

You have not grasped what changed from my original plan to the current plan that is why you are making silly statements about this new plan.

Basically I changed only 2 things from that plan to the current plan.

First I updated the values necessary to implement the part of the plan related to the investment in nuclear power plants – and the reason for that change was to reflect the massive increase in prices of materials for that project because of inflation.

The second change I made to this plan was the source of funding, instead of relying on a foreign source of funding for this project I thought a domestic source of funding such as Petrobras it makes more sense and also would be more reliable.


****


The other thing that you are having a hard time grasping is that my project is about the future and not about the past, and I am not trying to fix the problems of the past – we can’t do anything today about fixing the hyperinflation in Brazil during the 1980’s and so on...

What we are trying to do is correct the problems to create a better future, a sound future, with a sound foundation. We are trying to plant the seeds for future prosperity in which a large segment of the population would be lifted as they are doing today in china, and a system that would support a large middle class system in Brazil.

Please don’t give all these negative s**t about the past I don’t care about that – I do care about the new system that we can build in Brazil for the future.

.
Ricardo Amaral
written by João da Silva, July 12, 2008
I was fired over the years from at least 3 jobs because I did not bent to a corrupt system, and because I wanted to do the right thing, and because of that I was severely punished by the system. Over the years I had the opportunity to line up my pocket with millions of dollars if I were a crook, but I did not. I can walk anywhere with my head up and I don’t have to worry about that people are going to accuse me of some wrongdoing. I went down a number of times, but I kept my personal integrity intact.


Congrats for maintaining your personal integrity intact, though it has become rare since the early 90´s in this country.

What we are trying to do is correct the problems to create a better future, a sound future, with a sound foundation. We are trying to plant the seeds for future prosperity in which a large segment of the population would be lifted as they are doing today in china, and a system that would support a large middle class system in Brazil.

Please don’t give all these negative s**t about the past I don’t care about that – I do care about the new system that we can build in Brazil for the future.


Re these comments addressed to Ch.c: He is another idealist and does not support a corrupt system. He does not have to. One thing I appreciate in Ch.c is that he is brutally blunt, but in support of the underdogs just like you and me. Of course, I have to confess that sometimes he oversteps his role as a critique of everything we say. But he is a good ally to have on our side. At times, he is slightly mule headed, but I think that he is a great guy.

Ch.c, are you hearing me?
Ch.c, are you hearing me?
written by ..., July 12, 2008
Of course not... that poor devil is too busy scratching his crotch...


Hehehe

Costinha
Of course not... that poor devil is too busy scratching his crotch...
written by João da Silva, July 12, 2008
Mule headed folks like to scratch their scrotum!
How Atavistic
written by Ric, July 12, 2008
Renationalize? Dream on.
Reply to Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 12, 2008
To be more precise, I resigned from two of the jobs over time as a matter of idealism and to keep my personal integrity. The other time I was fired for insubordination after I sent a report that I had prepared to the board of trustees of the organization to shed some light on a lot of problems that were happening inside of the organization and I also made suggestion on my report for a complete company restructuring.

I was the controller of that company, but the president of the company called me on her office and fired me on the spot for insubordination. But the entire board of trustees did read my report and after I was fired the company adopted many of my suggestions, including the restructuring portion of the report.

In the other case the company was promoting me at the time when this little problem came up and they expected me to go along with their position, but instead I turned in my resignation. In that occasion I might have been a little too idealist and I decided to hold my ground, and the people that worked in our area on that company thought that I was going crazy since I was in the process of being promoted and it seems like I had great prospects ahead of me on that organization. That company was the largest insurance company in the US at that time.

But looking back I don’t regret some of the decisions that I made in my life, since new doors always opened and I met some great people along the way.

.
Info about Petrobras
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 12, 2008

Info as of July 11, 2008

Petrobras - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO - (NYSE: PBR)

Current price: US$ 61

Market Cap: US$ 270 billion


You can see the list of major shareholders of Petrobras stock at:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=PBR


The Brazilian government owns 55.7% of Petrobras' common shares.

The Brazilian government owns US$ 150 billion dollars at current price of Petrobras stock. And US$ 120 billion is in public’s hands.


Board of Directors:

http://www.reuters.com/finance...mbol=PBR.N


José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
President and CEO, Petrobrás

José Sérgio Gabrielli de Azevedo born in Salvador (Bahia). Economist, graduated from the Federal University of Bahia.

He held the posts of Financial Director and Director of Investor Relations at Petrobras from February 1, 2003 to July 21, 2005, with responsibility for the Executive Management of Accounting, Finance, Project Finance, Investor Relations, Financial Planning and Tax Administration.

On July 22, 2005 he took the post of President of Petrobras, for which he was designated by the Executive Board. He was also elected as a member of the Executive Board of Petrobras Distribuidora-BR, for the same period.
He is President of the Executive Board of Petrobras Transporte S.A. – TRANSPETRO, Petrobras Química S.A. – PETROQUISA and Petrobras Gás S.A. – GASPETRO.

During his career at Petrobras, he received the following awards:

· Finance Executive of 2004 from the Brazilian Institute of Finance Executives (IBEF) - O Equilibrista (The Acrobat) Award;

·20th Award from the National Association of Executives in Finance, Administration and Accounting (ANEFAC) for Professional of the Year 2004: For outstanding financial performance;

· International Stevie Business Awards 2005: As Best Finance Executive in Latin America.

During the same period Petrobras received various awards, among which were:

·The 2004 Transparency Trophy, as the most transparent company in Brazil, awarded by the National Association of Executives in Finance, Administration and Accounting (ANEFAC);

·The Best Investor Relations Program for Individual Investors, awarded annually by the American publication Investor Relations Magazine;

·"Respect for the Individual Investor" Award - Tradenetwork, for giving individual shareholders special treatment, awarded by Tradenetwork;

·International Stevie Business Awards 2005 : "The Best Company in Latin America".

Mr. Gabrielli completed a Masters Degree at the Federal University of Bahia with a dissertation on Tax Incentives and Regional Development. In 1987 he obtained a PhD in Economics from Boston University, with a dissertation on the Financing of Brazilian State Owned Companies in the period from 1975 to 1979. During the period 2000 to 2001 he was "Visiting Research Scholar" at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

He was Deputy-Director of Research and Post-Graduate Studies, Director of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and coordinator of the Masters Degree Course in Economics at the Federal University of Bahia, and Superintendent of the Foundation for Research and Extension Support (FAPEX). He is the author of various articles and books on productive restructuring, the labor market, macroeconomics and regional development. Currently he is a full professor on leave from the Federal University of Bahia.

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Petrobras Website.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 12, 2008
Actual website: Petrobras

http://www.petrobras.com/ptcm/...ag_inicial

.
Petrobras
written by João da Silva, July 14, 2008
Worth reading the following link:

http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/9562/1/
Reply to Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 18, 2008
Besides the RGE Monitor website we also have a discussion about this article at the Elite Trader website, and so far they have 70 comments on that site.

The Coming Renationalization of Petrobras

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...did=131138

I have been so busy in the last week, and the Brazzil magazine website was offline for a period of time, but until now I have not sent email for the people to let them know that my latest article has been published. My mailing list includes over 1,000 people.

If you have some time check out the comments about this article at the Elite Trader website. That website has about 110,000 members and they have a nice group that reads and comment on my postings. But since I have been posting in that website in the last 3 years the forum is divided between the people who usually support you and the other group that usually attack you it does not matter what is the subject at hand.

After a while you know the people that you can have a civil discussion and the people that you have to go for their throat every time.

I also received a lot of direct emails from readers about my article including from people in Brazil congratulating me for having the courage of writing an article such as the above.

.
Ricardo Amaral
written by João da Silva, July 18, 2008
After a while you know the people that you can have a civil discussion and the people that you have to go for their throat every time.


I am reposting the comments addressed to both of us by a fellow blogger by name "The Guest". It was posted in the other article I mentioned before. I suggest you reply to him under your article and this way, we can focus more on your plan. "The Guest" is a very interesting and objective blogger with good suggestions and questions.

João and Ricardo
written by The Guest, July 18, 2008
"There is another Brazilian writer by name Augusto Zimmermann, who is based in Australia and writes good articles on this issue."

I read a few of his articles here before. Hopefully one day he will participate in the discussions.

At this moment I would like to address Ricardo on a very important issue that should have been a corner stone of his plan--education.

After reading the comments, I got the answer to the education issue and other questions that came to mind as I was reading Ricardo's article. Shelly should not have had to ask about education for readers to find out that the profits from petrobras would be used solely to finance the plan projects and not the other budgets of the government. That said, I like the plan except the fact that education was left out of it.

The education of brazilians should be a big part of this plan. At this moment in Brazil there are quite a few companies, petrobras included, who are not only employers but also educators because of the state of Brazil's educational system. These employers took on this role because it is in their best interest if they want to remain competitive and continue to grow.
The proposed plan will add thousands of people to Brazil's workforce. Brazil does not have, and under the present educational system will not have a qualified workforce in order for the proposed plan to be viable or successful. One cannot continue to depend on companies to take on the role of educators and if the plan is implemented they will not be able to do so because of the expence. Thus, these companies will look else where for qualified workers.
Brazil need an educated work force at all levels for this plan to work. The plan is the perfect place to completely reform the educational system through out Brazil without state and federal interference, plus the added advantage of a stable budget.

The future for all Brazilians can be a bright one if Ricardo's plan is embraced, but that future is also dependent upon total educational reform taking place and being implemented at the same time.

Reply to Joao da Silva – Regarding the Education System
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 19, 2008
Part 1 of 2

Thank you for bringing up the posting by guest, for some reason I missed his posting. I have been swamped with emails and follow up postings because of my article.

As I mentioned in one of the comments the current education system not only in Brazil but also here in the United States is completely obsolete and we need to stop educating the new generation for the world of 120 years ago.

The entire education system has to be redesigned for the 21st Century and a world completely different than the world that we have been living up to now.

After reading books such as Wikinomics by Dan Tapscott, or Revolutionary Wealth by Alvin Toffler I realized that there is a complete disconnect between the current educational system and the real world where these kids will find jobs.

Wikinomics brought to my attention how the new generation at a very early age already becomes very proficient in the latest concepts and they understand the technological advances and know how to integrate this knowledge and they are able to do very sophisticated stuff on the web.

Today’s young generation knows more about the world of the internet than the older generations – that means that they are more in sync with the world of tomorrow.

The millions of kids in Brazil even tough they don’t have a formal education and many don’t know how to read or write, they still learn some skills on the street to be able to survive as camelo or even drug dealers.

These kids learn in some way on how to count money and they grasp the concept that they have to make a profit on their deals to be able to survive. They understand the concept of competition and they kill each other to protect their turf.

Because of hyperinflation in Brazil they also understand the concept of inflation and how that affects your business transactions.

What needs to be done is redirect all that knowledge that the kids already have to new ventures and connect them with the world of tomorrow.

I believe I mentioned once before on this magazine a program that I saw on television about 1 or 2 years ago. BBC News produced the program and I found it to be very interesting. The owner of a computer software company in India made an experiment and he recorded it. He was trying to come up with new ways to teach the new young generation.

In a very poor area of this large city in India there was an abandoned room that used to be someone’s office at one time, but now there were no door and the place had turned into a hang out for street kids. All the kids that hanged around that place were just street kids with no education, and they did anything they had to do to stay alive including stealing.

They installed a few computers on that room (I don’t remember how many 3 or 4 computers and they were all connected to the internet) and they expected that the kids would steal the computers almost immediately to sell it and get some money.

And they installed hidden cameras to document what was going to happen.

These were street kids with zero education, and they had ever actually played with a computer before. The most surprising thing that happened is than the kids did not steal the computer and what happened in the following days.

The kids first figured out how to turn the machines on. Then they started playing with the machine until they figured out how to connect to the internet.

Then they started teaching each other how to do what they had just learned and these kids instead of doing what they used to do during the day they started spending all their time learning from each other and learning new things in the internet. The kids were fascinated by the entire experience and in a matter of a week they had thought themselves how to access and play computer games on the net.

What was shocking for these researchers was the speed that the kids were able to figure out by themselves and teach each other what they had just learned by trial and error.

I believe that the owner of the computer company decided to open a computer center in that area of town for the street kids to learn new skills and become more useful members of society.

.
Reply to Joao da Silva – Regarding the Education System
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 19, 2008
Part 2 of 2

When the kids have these modern tools you get their interest and they learn much faster including learning from the other kids because they help each other.

The most important thing for the Brazilian government to do regarding education is to redesign the education system to be useful in the 21st Century and prepare the new generation to work on the business environment of the future.

The concept of work is being reinvented to accommodate the job market of the future.

It does not make sense to educate the new generation to work in a job world of the past and an age long gone.

As I mentioned above the education system and its reinvention should be part of the usual federal government annual budget.

My plan is concerned with building the foundations for the new education system to be implemented. It takes time to wire the major cities and as much as possible around the country with fiber optics and the state of the art in broadband internet technology with the latest capabilities available anywhere around the world.

This network of fiber optics and broadband technology will be imperative for the new educational system to be implemented in Brazil and also to all kinds of business to connect to the rest of the world. It will be imperative for any business to stay part of the loop necessary for doing business in the new global economy.

As the new infrastructure is being built the newly redesigned education system has to be tested and be ready to be launched as the new infrastructure becomes available.

To redesign the new educational system they should take a look all over the world to new ways of teaching and new ways of doing things with the new technologies.

As part of this new educational system I also would build libraries around the country as we have here in the United States and provide these libraries with many connections to the internet and have a bank of computers with the software that people need as they have available on American libraries.

My economic development plan is about building the foundations for the Brazilian economy and educational system of tomorrow. But I am not going to reinvent this new educational system and I will leave it to the experts in that area to do it.

.
Ricardo, please let us be realist when it comes to Brazil
written by The Guest, July 19, 2008
I listened to the following on BBC while I was away at work two months ago. I can tell you the following script was not as dramatic as the spoken words. Contrast the following to the BBC program you saw about India.

What makes a cyber criminal? BBC 19th May 2008

Fabio's small frame is hunched over an ancient computer screen in a dingy internet cafe in one of the favelas of Sao Paulo. He is learning the basic skills needed to commit crime online.
Fabio - not his real name - is taking his online lessons from experienced computer hackers. He is disarmingly matter-of-fact about his new career.
"I buy small things - mobile phones, cameras - so that people don't even know I've been using their credit cards," he explains.
Fabio is a low-level frontline operative in a rapidly expanding battle taking place in the virtual world. For the moment, he is unlikely to be caught because he is restricting himself to the regular theft of small amounts of money.

Incessant attacks
Fabio works on the rational principle that only a minority of credit card holders check their statements carefully.
Even if they did, they might think twice before reporting a minor theft to the police. And he also knows it is highly unlikely that the police will have the resources to pursue him.

Nonetheless, Fabio's modest assault on people's bank accounts is the tip of a very large iceberg - and one which is creating a headache for law enforcement agencies around the world.
"The cost of identity theft and computer-based credit card fraud stood at $52.6 billion in 2005," says Peter Allor, boss of The X-Force, the cyber intelligence unit of leading cyber security firm IBM ISS.
Cyber crime's turnover has been growing rapidly ever since, so that now estimates of its value stand at that huge $100 billion figure annually.
But banks and other major companies are reluctant to release any figures about the losses they sustain, for fear of scaring off customers. That is why they continue to reimburse the victims of computer scams with no questions asked.

Serious money
Fabio's descent into the world of cyber crime began recently. He has never had a fixed job which paid well, and struggles to get by - he is divorced and travels two hours by bus to Sao Paulo in order to support his one son.
Poverty and destitution - common in the favelas of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and other Brazilian cities - have certainly contributed to his determination to make money from cyber crime.
Fabio is one of only a tiny minority of young people in Brazil who use computers to commit crime. But there are concerns that, as thousands more become web literate, there will be an exponential rise in cyber crime.
Access to the web is easy thanks to the cheap internet cafes studded around the suburbs of Brazil's economic hubs - where most young people use them to play games or educate themselves.

Fabio is defensive when I suggest to him that crime on the internet is wrong - however poor he is.
"I'm not trying to rob anyone who wakes up early in the morning and takes the bus, and has to get home and feed his kids, and doesn't have money," he insists.
And he tells me his ultimate aim is to befriend a very rich person online - "someone who owns a limo or a helicopter and who doesn't care about poor people". He is convinced that he will be able to milk his victim for a serious amount of money.
For the moment, however, Fabio is small fry.

Stay clear
Brazil's new federal cyber police force in the capital Brasilia is constantly battling against large-scale scams originating in the country.
Hackers send out millions of spam emails to addresses across the world every day, and a small percentage of computer users are gullible enough to answer them.
Bank account numbers and passwords are then handed over unknowingly to unscrupulous cyber crooks.
There is no way to protect yourself 100% from Fabio and his friends.
But you can minimise the risk. Always keep anti-malware - programmes which prevent the installation of malicious programmes on your system - and anti-virus software up-to-date; never answer an email if its origin is unclear.
And if anybody offers you free sex, stay well clear of that - you could end up with a nasty infection.
Ricardo, please let us be realist when it comes to Brazil Part 2
written by The Guest, July 19, 2008
Fabio and many others like him turned to cyber crime because they can not find continual employment in the formal economy. The people who are teaching Fabio his new trade are middle class computer programmers who can make more money from cyber crime than legitimate jobs.

If we were writing here about the government of my tiny country, St. Kitts, I would say yes, lets fund the educational budget with rest of the governmental budgets. Why would I say yes. Because the government of that tiny island believes that an educated populace leads a reduction in poverty and they have the proof to show that it does.
Brazil's government on the other hand believes in lip service but not action. Being a realist, for Brazil to move forward in the 21st century and beyond and be a nation that can achieve greatness for its citizens, the educational budget will have to be a part of the plan. Otherwise Brazil will remain a country that always can but could never achieve greatness.
The Guest
written by João da Silva, July 20, 2008
Ricardo, please let us be realist when it comes to Brazil


Hi Guest, you are the second person who is commenting about the cyber crimes committed by the juveniles in Brazil and "the people who are teaching Fabio his new trade are middle class computer programmers who can make more money from cyber crime than legitimate jobs". The first one was our distinguished fellow blogger who goes by the name of "Gringo" who knows quite a lot about the ability of the Indians in the software field.

In all fairness to Ricardo, he did say:

But I am not going to reinvent this new educational system and I will leave it to the experts in that area to do it.


He(as I do) always considered the Internet as a powerful tool in the field of education. He also says that he "would leave it to the experts in that area (meaning education) to do it"

Sadly, we do not have many "experts" who realize that the Internet is indeed a powerful tool to educate people in all levels. Believe me, our educational system is out of sync with the needs of the 21st century. On the contrary, the Indians and Chinese (or the Easterners in general) are far ahead of us.

Brazil's government on the other hand believes in lip service but not action. Being a realist, for Brazil to move forward in the 21st century and beyond and be a nation that can achieve greatness for its citizens, the educational budget will have to be a part of the plan. Otherwise Brazil will remain a country that always can but could never achieve greatness.


Unfortunately you are right. Too much "papo" and no action. But people like Ricardo and other good Brazilians have to keep on trying to change the situation. We should RELEARN to accept constructive criticisms and correct our course.



Reply to Guest
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 20, 2008
I am aware of what you are saying, and I have written in the past about the Brazilian hackers – they are ranked among the best around the world.

I have seen many programs here on television on the subject of identity theft. It is a growing problem here in the US and becoming bigger all the time.

But that should not be a reason to stop innovation in the coming years. We can’t just give up and let the crooks to win.

The problem here in the United States is 1,000 times bigger than in Brazil, but cyberspace is the world of the future and we have to fix the problems as we go along. We just can’t go back to the past.

Besides if Fabio wants to learn how the real professional crooks do it then he should learn English and he should apply for a job in Wall Street, since the scams that they run today from Wall Street can go into the trillions of US dollars. That is where the real crooks learn and implement their craft today.

.
Here is some interesting info about Brazzil magazine readers.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 20, 2008
When I was preparing some information to post on the RGE Monitor website about Brazzil magazine I came across the following information about Brazzil magazine users:

As of July 12, 2008 Brazzil.com users came from these countries:

United States 28 %

China 27 %

Brazil 19 %

India 4 %

Germany 4 %

Japan 3 %

Other 15 %


*****


I assume that my articles about Brazil and China had a lot to do to the fact that today 27 percent of the readers of Brazzil magazine are from China.

After each of my articles about China was published on this magazine I did contact many Chinese Universities, Chinese social networks, some major Chinese newspapers and other groups related to China to bring to their attention my articles about Brazil and China.

My articles must have grabbed the attention of the Chinese people in a way or another and today it does have an impact on the number of Chinese readers that read Brazzil magazine on a regular basis.

Here are some of my articles about Brazil and China.


“While China Rises the US Falls in Brazil and Latin America”
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Thursday, 02 June 2005
http://www.brazzil.com/2005-ma.../9296.html

12,584 views and 92 comments as of 07/20/08


*****


“Here is Why Brazil Should Adopt the New Asian Currency”
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Friday, 02 March 2007
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9821.html

4,145 views and 43 comments as of 07/20/08


*****


“The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil”
Part 1 of 4
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Sunday, 30 September 2007
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9977.html

3,063 views and 89 comments as of 07/20/08


“The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil”
Part 2 of 4
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Thursday, 04 October 2007
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9979.html

3,081 views and 112 comments as of 07/20/08


“The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil”
Part 3 of 4
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Wednesday, 10 October 2007

http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/184-october-2007/9983.html


5,242 views and 249 comments as of 07/20/08


“The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil”
Part 4 of 4
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Tuesday, 16 October 2007
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9985.html

5,523 views and 279 comments as of 07/20/08

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The above link to Part 3 of 4 is not working Try this one.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 20, 2008
“The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil”
Part 3 of 4
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Wednesday, 10 October 2007
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9983.html

5,242 views and 249 comments as of 07/20/08

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...
written by marcus Mello, July 20, 2008
no comment
Reply to Marcus Mello
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 20, 2008
Since Rodney Mello started publishing my articles on Brazzil magazine I always sent emails to people who wanted to read my articles and people who asked me to add their name to my mailing list over the years.

And when I sent the information about my new article I always included on my email the information to promote Brazzil magazine as follows:

Brazzil magazine has the largest number of readers of any Brazilian publications outside of Brazil on the web. Only the major magazines in Brazil such as Veja magazine have larger number of readers than Brazzil magazine. Brazzil.com has had a traffic rank on the internet that ranged from 102,141 to 134,233 in the last few months.

A few years ago Brazzil magazine used to rank around 12,000 to 14,000 in the entire internet, but the rank around 102,000 still very good when you take in consideration that today there are an estimated over 100 million live websites are on the internet.


*****


When I sent the information about my articles about China and Brazil I also posted with the info about my article the information to promote Brazzil magazine and I did that on a lot of Forums of Chinese newspapers and Chinese social networks (in China and in Hong Kong) and I also sent emails to the economic department of major Chinese universities asking that the Economic department teachers show to their students my articles on Brazzil magazine for them to get exposed to information about Brazil an important emerging global economy.

By doing that I did try to maximize the exposure of my articles and also the info about Brazzil magazine to the Chinese world. And I have been doing that for years and it takes a lot time and effort.

Now for the first time I can see by the numbers that I published above about Brazzil magazine users by country that my strategy has been working better than I expected and is having an impact in helping bring in the readers from China.

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João and Ricardo
written by The Guest, July 21, 2008
"In all fairness to Ricardo, he did say:

But I am not going to reinvent this new educational system and I will leave it to the experts in that area to do it."

"He(as I do) always considered the Internet as a powerful tool in the field of education. He also says that he "would leave it to the experts in that area (meaning education) to do it""

I am not saying that Ricardo should invent the new educational system nor am I disputing the use of "the Internet as a powerful tool in the field of education," and the use of the internet in regards to education should not be left to experts.
What I am saying is if funding the new educational system is placed into the regular governmental budget it will not be funded adequately if at all. I am using Brazil's government past and present record as my guide here and I have no reason to conclude differently. Today there is a crisis in the current educational system and the government is not doing anything about it. Do you really trust them to do otherwise? The facts speak for themselves.
If Ricardo's plan is implemented without the new education system budget being a part of the plan, in 10 to 20 years after the plan is fully implemented we will find out how unqualfied Brazil's workers are to take full advantage of the opportunities.
Once again, place the new educational system in the plan, fund it and leave the reforms to the experts.

"Unfortunately you are right. Too much "papo" and no action. But people like Ricardo and other good Brazilians have to keep on trying to change the situation."

I agree 100%, my disagreement with Ricardo is how.

"Sadly, we do not have many "experts" who realize that the Internet is indeed a powerful tool to educate people in all levels."

Actually that is not true, they just need to be retrained as good teachers. For lack of another word I will use ban here.

During the inception of the computer age Brazil instituated a ban on the importation of computers and software into the country. Because of this Brazilian computer programmers and engineers were forced to invent programs for Brazil's businesses. Today because of that fact, Brazil's banks have some of the most sophisticated security software in the world. Not even the US can rival them. Things went wrong when Brazil began to import software, hence the birth of middle class computer programmers turning to cyber crime.

It is a known fact in the banking community in Brazil that some of the cyber crimes that are taking place in the rest of the world today took place in Brazil a few years prior, and Brazil has been sucessful in building a security wall against them.
That is why people like Fabio are going after individuals, the weak link in the system. They place there bets on people not taking precautions. Hence Brazilian "...banks and other major companies are reluctant to release any figures about the losses they sustain, for fear of scaring off customers. That is why they continue to reimburse the victims of computer scams with no questions asked."

The script above for the BBC program does not contain the full reflection of the audio report. A lot was left out.

"But that should not be a reason to stop innovation in the coming years. We can’t just give up and let the crooks to win."

I am by no means advocating stopping inonvation. Instead, I would like to bring these people back into the fold with good paying jobs.
Reply to The Guest
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 21, 2008
I did not add an education budget as part of my plan because of an important reason. All the parts of my plan should be subject to a new system of transparency and accountability. I am talking about having the information about each individual project open for scrutiny with budgets and actual expenses and justification for any projects overruns all made public information.

The companies that would win the parts of this project would have to be accountable for the performance of the project.

There is a problem about having a budget for education – the accountability would be subject to politics and performance manipulations and would be hard to prove that certain goals have not been met. It is not a good idea to have the education budget attached to my economic development plan.

I want the budgets of all projects to be open and be monitored for the best performance possible including quality control and room for innovations, but no room for crooks and inferior quality of product specified under the contract agreements.

Any project over run will have to be completely justified and documented – for example in the case of nuclear power plants the cost of each plant went up from about US$ 2 billion to about US$ 6 billion each in a matter of 2 years, but the major culprit here is global inflation and the skyrocketing cost of all kinds of materials. And all this information can be justified with the proper documentation about any specific project.

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Petrobras - Brazilian Film Festival in New York - Aug 2008.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 21, 2008
Dear Joao da Silva,

I have a question for you about one of my cousins in Brazil – His name is:

Eduardo de Oliveira Coutinho é um cineasta brasileiro, nascido em 11 de Maio de 1933 na cidade de São Paulo e considerado um dos mais importantes documentaristas da atualidade.

Filmografia:

·2007: Jogo de Cena
·2005: O Fim e o Princípio
·2004: Peões
·2002: Edifício Master
·2000: Babilônia 2000
·1999: Santo forte
·1994: Os Romeiros de Padre Cícero (média-metragem)
·1993: Boca de Lixo (média-metragem)
·1992: A Lei e a Vida (média-metragem)
·1991: O Fio da memória
·1989: Volta Redonda, o Memorial da Greve (média-metragem)
·1989: O Jogo da Dívida (média-metragem)
·1987: Santa Marta - Duas semanas no morro (média-metragem)
·1984: Cabra marcado para morrer
·1980: Portinari, o Menino de Brodósqui (média-metragem)
·1979: Exu, uma Tragédia Sangrenta (curta-metragem)
·1978: Teodorico, o Imperador do Sertão (média-metragem)
·1976: O Pistoleiro de Serra Talhada (média-metragem)
·1976: Seis Dias em Ouricuri (média-metragem)
·1970: Faustão
·1968: O Homem Que Comprou O Mundo
·1966: O Pacto (episódio do longa ABC do Amor)


*****


Have you ever seen any of his movies?

Have you ever seen him being interviewed on television?

His grandmother and mine were sisters. My grandmother the descendant of Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva and the Souza Queiroz Family – but what is interesting about this sister of my grandmother is that she married another descendant of Jose Bonifacio.

This cousin of mine has the perfect family and professional background to make a documentary about the Life of the Patriarch and I have no idea why he never produced such a historic film to teach the new generation about the Andrada Family.

By the way, my nephew is also in the movie business and he is finishing his latest film.

They have about 4 more days of filming to finally wrap up the project. It is a regular 2 hour motion picture, and should be ready for screening by the end of September, and by year end my nephew and his partners are going to start showing their movie on major movie festivals.

They had some production problems that delayed the shooting of the film, my nephew is one of the main characters on this film and he is also one of the producers of this film. One of the characters in the movie is a famous wrestler here in the US and in one of the fighting scenes the wrestler got hurt and he needed surgery and now they are waiting for him to recover because they have to finish some of the missing fighting scenes in the movie. In the meantime they are finishing the editing and everything else. As of now they expect that the wrestler will be in good enough shape to film the final scenes in the first week of September.

They are also working on the sequel for this movie and the screenplay is already in an advanced stage. Part of the movie was shot in New York City and the rest here in New Jersey. They are getting enough publicity about the movie and they had a nice article the entire page of one of the major newspapers in New Jersey about the movie. They also appeared on one of the television programs in the New York Metropolitan area about new up coming directors and they talked about the production of this movie.

My nephew is a very good actor and I have been in many theater productions that he participated over the years.

It looks like we will have 2 famous cineastas in our family.

Maybe it is just coincidence, but last Friday I received an email from the people who are organizing the Petrobras Brazilian movie festival in New York City and they are asking me if I am interested in getting the press credentials to go to the various events. The festival starts on August 10 and goes to August 16, and they have a special event at the UN but only for special guests where Antonio Carlos Jobin’s wife is showing some kind movie about Bossa Nova and they also have a c**ktail at the UN sponsored by Embratur.

I want to arrange for my nephew and his partner – the director of the movie – to get the special credentials necessary for them to attend these events in New York.

As part of this Brazilian Film festival they are going to show about 20 Brazilian movies at the Tribeca Film Festival.

.
Petrobras - 2008 Brazilian Film Festival in New York City Aug 10 to 16
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 21, 2008
If you want to learn more about the Petrobras Brazilian Film Festival in New York City check this website:

http://www.brazilianfilmfestiv...p?lang=ing

.

Ricardo
written by The Guest, July 21, 2008
"All the parts of my plan should be subject to a new system of transparency and accountability. I am talking about having the information about each individual project open for scrutiny with budgets and actual expenses and justification for any projects overruns all made public information."

This is the first and most important reason why I continue to advocate the new education system budget being a part of the plan.

"There is a problem about having a budget for education – the accountability would be subject to politics and performance manipulations...."

This is the second reason why I advocate the budget being a part of your plan. Removing "...politics and performance manipulations...." will be achieved by placing the system into the hands of professional educators and administrators from Brazil's federal universities. Increases or decreases in the budget would be made on clearly set bench marks. What are the bench marks ultimate goal? Every Brazilian student upon graduation from high school is fully prepared to enter any university without having to take another exam. The final exams that every student takes at the end of high school will be prepared by the universities, administered in the high schools then returned to the universities for marking.

"...and (it) would be hard to prove that certain goals have not been met."

Believe me, the results of the exams would show if the goals are being met.

I am a product of and the students currently attending school in my country will be products of such a system. Our system is based on the British educational system. At end of each school year every student takes a comprehensive exam for each course that was studied that year. Those exams determined if one would be moving up to the next school grade level or not. At the end of high school the final exams arrived from the universities of Oxford and Cambridge in the UK and are returned there for them to be marked. Today the exams also arrive from the University of the West Indies with main campuses located in Jamaica, Barbados and Trinidad.
Since we did not know what would be on the exams our educational horizon was very broad. Today students from my country could be found attending universities in quite a number of countries around the world. Some of them are actually recruited by the universities.

What got us to the level where we are today was government total and continual commitment to educational excellence. Brazil's government does not have such a commitment, and looking at its current and past record I do not see such a commitment.

Brazilians deserve better than what is currently on the table, and the new educational system being a part of the plan has a better chance of giving them the opportunities they yearn for.
Petrobras and Halliburton - Not a good association.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 21, 2008
One of the readers in Brazil sent me today a copy of the enclosed article published on JBOnline as follows:

By the way, when you see smoke you can bet there is fire.

If the Brazilian government want to keep the system clean regarding the new oil finds in Brazil then Petrobras should avoid doing business with companies such as Halliburton since they have a very bad rep**ation and that company has been taking the US government for a ride in a big way in Iraq. By doing business with companies such as Halliburton then Petrobras would be signaling to the world that it is open season in Brazil and it is O.K. for the crooks of the world to come and feast and take the Brazilian government for a ride – and in that case then Petrobras has to say goodbye to any form of transparency and to accountability.

The association with Halliburton is a very bad start for this new era of oil development in Brazil. In the United States that company gets away with just about anything because of its close associations with the current vice president of the United States – under other circumstances the management of that company probably would be all in Jail.


*****


Part 1 of 2

JBOnline – 21 de Julho de 2008

“Petróleo para a atual e gerações futures”
Léo de Almeida Neves - MEMBRO DA ACADEMIA PARANAENSE DE LETRAS, EX-DEp**aDO FEDERAL E EX-DIRETOR DO BANCO DO BRASIL

Governo e povo têm o dever indeclinável de carrear os benefícios da exploração do "ouro negro" para a atual e futuras gerações. Será crime de lesa-pátria fazer o jogo de poderosas multinacionais. Tive a primazia de levantar essa questão na imprensa, com meu artigo Nova campanha do ‘petróleo é nosso’.

É plenamente admissível estimar-se as reserva totais de petróleo do Brasil em 90 bilhões de barris, por conta da fabulosa província petrolífera que a natureza nos prodigalizou na camada pré-sal, abrangendo 800 quilômetros de costa do Espírito Santo até Santa Catarina.

Multiplicando-se 90 bilhões de barris de petróleo por US$ 100 o barril (supondo-se improvável queda da vigente cotação de US$ 140) representa uma riqueza fantástica de US$ 9 trilhões, da qual a União deve ser aquinhoada com parcela significativa a ser destinada a um Fundo Soberano Intergeracional, como fez a Noruega.

Esse Fundo poderá pagar nossa dívida interna, cobrir o déficit da Previdência Social, suprir deficiências de infra-estrutura, revolucionar a educação e a saúde, distribuir royalties a Estados e municípios produtores, modernizar nossas Forças Armadas e, ainda, diminuir a carga tributária.

Para tanto há que se modificar o marco regulatório da legislação do petróleo, que outorga concessões de conformidade com a Lei 9478/ 97, que estabeleceu o fim do monopólio da União na exploração do petróleo e permitiu a entrega de blocos, mediante licitações pela Agência Nacional do Petróleo (ANP). As concessionárias que acharem petróleo ficam donas do produto, e a União tem participação de apenas 0 a 40% em exploração de águas profundas, enquanto no mercado mundial a média recebida pelos países concedentes é de 84%.

Não se pode ignorar o ensinamento da história de que as Guerras do Petróleo justificam invasões e derrubadas de governo, criam países independentes e impõem ditaduras.

Até agora a atitude do governo Lula tem sido exemplar: antes do 9º leilão tirou 41 blocos localizados próximos às áreas do pré-sal; segurou o 8º leilão, que contém 10 áreas nas mesmas condições, suspendeu novos leilões e tem defendido através da voz do presidente da República, do ministro de Minas e Energia e da ministra-Chefe da Casa Civil, Dilma Rousseff, e do presidente da Petrobras, José Sergio Gabrielli, uma nova disciplina legal.

"A melhor idéia – com a qual eu concordo totalmente – é adotar o regime de partilha de produção", diz o ministro Edson Lobão, de Minas e Energia, que esclarece: "Nos países que adotam esse modelo existe uma estatal com 100% de capital do governo para ditar o ritmo de produção e supervisionar a exploração dos campos. Não é para furar poço, que seria tarefa para a Petrobras e as outras prestadoras de serviço".

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Petrobras and Halliburton Part 2 of 2
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 21, 2008
Part 2 of 2

Enquanto isso, sorrateiramente, forças sub-reptícias se mobilizam e se
contrapõem às soluções patrióticas. Exigem o imediato reinício dos leilões, ao mesmo tempo que invocam a lei de Fernando Henrique para defender a unificação das áreas interligadas já leiloadas e, assim, abocanhar as imensas áreas do pré-sal – não licitadas – pertencentes à União. Não querem mudar o regime jurídico das concessões. Não admitem que o Brasil se transforme em potência mundial!

De outro lado, parlamentares de mentalidade paroquial centralizam a discussão de assunto com tal magnitude para os destinos da nação, na participação percentual de Estados e municípios para a divisão dos royalties, particularmente os do Rio de Janeiro versus São Paulo.

Preocupante a declaração do embaixador norte-americano Brad Clifford Sobel, em sua recente visita a São Paulo, "de que está surgindo uma nova área de cooperação entre os dois países, o petróleo, que enxerga oportunidades de parcerias com petrolíferas americanas como Exxon e Chevron, ou empresas fornecedoras de serviços como a Halliburton".
O embaixador disse que funcionários do seu governo "devem vir ao Brasil em breve para tratar do assunto e que o secretário de Segurança Interna dos EUA, Michael Chertoff, chegará na próxima semana".

Com maior repercussão, os Estados Unidos anunciaram que vão reativar a IV Frota, que ficará responsável pelas águas da América Latina e Caribe, o Atlântico Sul; A V Frota cobre o Golfo Pérsico e garante a supremacia norte-americana no Oriente Médio; a VI é baseada no Mar Mediterrâneo e a VII no Japão, gigantescos porta-aviões compõem essas armadas que são dotadas de armas nucleares.

O almirante Gary Roughead, chefe de Operações Navais da Marinha dos EUA, declarou restabelecida a IV Frota com as seguintes palavras: "Não se enganem; essa frota estará pronta para qualquer operação, a qualquer hora em qualquer lugar".

O contra-almirante Joseph Kernan, comandante da IV Frota, atribui a esta "funções pacíficas para atendimentos humanitários e combate ao narcotráfico".

Ainda bem que, por proposta do presidente José Sarney, a ONU tornou o Atlântico Sul Zona de Paz, livre de armas nucleares. A Resolução 41/11 foi aprovada em 27.10.1986, por 126 votos a favor e um contra, o dos Estados Unidos.

Por tudo, modificar com base na experiência internacional a regulamentação da Lei do Petróleo torna-se imperativo de soberania nacional, principalmente agora que o Brasil ostenta a terceira maior reserva mundial dessa exponencial riqueza.

Source:

http://quest1.jb.com.br/editor...21022.html

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...
written by Marcus de Albuquerque Mello, July 21, 2008
Estou de acordo 100% com a sua proposta; estas reservas representam de fato uma possibilidade de redencao para o povo brasileiro; rezo para que os frutos dessas descobertas cheguem realmente ao povo, para educa-lo, para liberta-lo do ciclo de miseria material e mental. Eh pena que a corrupcao generalizada e nunca punida enfraqueca perante muitos os argumentos para a nacionalizacao. Eh necessaria uma campanha de conscientizacao do povo para que insista junto ao governo (que gracas a Deus ateh agora tem se comportado exemplarmente neste caso) que nao se deixe acuar pelos interesses menores dos que querem se locupletar mais uma vez daquilo que nao lhes pertence.
The Guest
written by João da Silva, July 22, 2008
Hi Guest,

A busy day today and in spite of it I have been keeping tack of the exchange of comments between Ricardo and your good self on education. Though I agree with the points of you both (as well as Marcus), my personal and professional experience has demonstrated very clearly that our government is not too keen to better the education whether "in class" or through the Internet. Years ago, we did have a school system (at least in the South) that trained the students the way you described about the "British system" that is adopted in your country. Sadly, over the past 20 years, our system has got obsolete and I don't think that the government gives two hoots about modernizing it

The professors of the Federal (and Private) universities do not go overboard about E-Learning either and the Ministry of Education is clueless. Our University(and school) administration has gone political and controlled by "parties". I don't think that in your country, the president of an university is "elected" by the professors, staff and the students. Here it is the case.

As for Ricardo´s suggestion of allocating $30 Billions, it sounds good to me. Considering that a huge infrastructure like TELEBRAS built by the military government for a paltry sum of $23 Billions, I think it is possible to build a high speed broad band network exclusively dedicated to education in ALL levels for $30 Billions (or less).

Unfortunately, there is no political will and it will remain so for generations.

Retraining the professors Forget it. I know how their minds work!

btw, I lost quite a bit of money in investing in "educating people" over the Internet!! I don't regret it though.

Ricardo Amaral
written by João da Silva, July 22, 2008
Hi Ricardo,

Dear Joao da Silva,

I have a question for you about one of my cousins in Brazil – His name is:

Eduardo de Oliveira Coutinho é um cineasta brasileiro, nascido em 11 de Maio de 1933 na cidade de São Paulo e considerado um dos mais importantes documentaristas da atualidade.


Though I do not know remember his name, I recall seeing one or two of his movies.As you know, the Brazilian made movies are not shown in the Movie houses here widely. I have not seen him on any TV interviews either.

His grandmother and mine were sisters. My grandmother the descendant of Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva and the Souza Queiroz Family – but what is interesting about this sister of my grandmother is that she married another descendant of Jose Bonifacio.

This cousin of mine has the perfect family and professional background to make a documentary about the Life of the Patriarch and I have no idea why he never produced such a historic film to teach the new generation about the Andrada Family.


This is a good idea. Many Corporations finance the making of Films, because it is tax deductible. I think your cousin has to push for it. A few years ago, a friend of mine made a movie and unfortunately the distributors did all they could to prevent it from being shown in the theaters and they did succeed in doing so.

I want to arrange for my nephew and his partner – the director of the movie – to get the special credentials necessary for them to attend these events in New York.


You should arrange it. btw, what is the name of his partner?
Reply to Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 22, 2008
First you said: “As for Ricardo´s suggestion of allocating $30 Billions, it sounds good to me. Considering that a huge infrastructure like TELEBRAS built by the military government for a paltry sum of $23 Billions, I think it is possible to build a high speed broad band network exclusively dedicated to education in ALL levels for $30 Billions (or less).”

I have two comments to make. First adjusted for inflation the US$ 23 billion investment made by the military would be equivalent to at least US$ 50 billion in today’s US dollar.

The second thing I want to say is that they should wire Brazil with fiber optics Broadband high speed internet and it should be available to everybody not only for education. Any business, anyone’s house, the entire country should be connected with that infrastructure in the same way most people have electric power. And they should make it available at the lowest price possible. Every business, school, every house, everything should be connected to this new infrastructure.

His partners name is Jason Dale and last Saturday we had a big engagement party for him (There were about 200 guests). He got engaged with my niece, my nephew’s sister.

By the way, I know most of my nephew’s friends since they were little kids but they have been a very close bunch of guys since that time. I saw a lot of shows that they participated on high school when I went to see my nephew, and I thought that Jason Dale was going directly to Broadway since he usually was the major star on musicals that shows that they had on high school. Jason looked as if he was ready for Broadway, but instead he decided to become a movie director, and he is pretty good.

These kids are going to be very successful it is just a matter of time. Right now they are working on a half dozen projects that are going to follow the current movie.

If you want to check their website here it is:

Crazy Elk Productions

http://www.crazyelkproductions.com/main.htm

Right now they are talking with a few potential investors who want to finance some of their movies.

.
João
written by The Guest, July 22, 2008
"Years ago, we did have a school system (at least in the South) that trained the students the way you described about the "British system" that is adopted in your country."

Last February while travelling to Brazil, I met a Brazilian climatologist who went to school in Rio under the same system many years ago also. She was fully prepared after high school to enter university.

We spent several hours discussing Brazil's present educational system and its inadequacies, the bolsa familia program and politics, the state of Brazil's economy, petrobras, jobs and job creation, and the fact that some Brazilian companies were spending time educating their employees.

After our discussions she was hopeful but still felt defeated by Brazil's government inept attitude towards solving problems. By the way, she voted with her feet and took advantage of a job opportunity that she did not seek but which was presented to her after she was recommended by a fellow US scientist with whom she worked in Brazil. She now works for a US institute doing research and travels to various countries several times a year presenting research papers. When we met she was at a cross road and had a very important decision to make. Her US work visa was about to expire and she could either renew it or change her status to permanent US resident.
Ricardo Amaral
written by João da Silva, July 22, 2008
Ricardo, after reading your latest comments, I realized I made a mistake in my original statement:

As for Ricardo´s suggestion of allocating $30 Billions, it sounds good to me. Considering that a huge infrastructure like TELEBRAS built by the military government for a paltry sum of $23 Billions, I think it is possible to build a high speed broad band network exclusively dedicated to education in ALL levels for $30 Billions (or less).


It should have read "Considering that a huge infrastructure like TELEBRAS built by the military government WAS SOLD for a paltry sum of $23 Billions by FHC´s government".

TELEBRAS was divided into 3 areas and sold to the Italians, Spaniards and big Brazilian groups for a PALTRY sum of $23 Billions. Just to give you an idea, the state owned Nigerian Telecom fetched around $45 Billions at that time.I do not know if you are following up the Brazilian media and the story about the sale of TELEBRAS is back in the news.

What I really wanted to say was that with your $30 billion budget, we can easily lay an Internet "back-bone" dedicated exclusively to Education. This back-bone can use several means to send signals to the PCs (both at homes,schools, universities,etc; where both students and teachers have access for a low cost). The modern technology enables us to do so.

As "Guest" rightly said, we need to retrain our teaching professionals. Also, we have to have enough political will to recognize that a) We need to provide inexpensive education to our youngsters b) In order to do so, we have to forget about the "educational methods of 19th century" and fully deploy the new technologies of 21st century

But I have my doubts whether our MEC (Ministry of Education) is capable of coming out with an audacious plan like the one we are all proposing.

Talking about "Plan", I would like you read an article in the following link:

http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/9599/1/

The article is about the speech given by Felipe Gonzalez (the ex-PM of Spain). I liked the article, but somehow he reinforced our line of thoughts when he said:

"What are missing are projects, not funds," underlined Gonzalez who insisted that integration processes must be "practical" and "not only political or ideological."


I am sure our friend "the guest" will agree partially, if not totally!
The Guest
written by João da Silva, July 22, 2008
We spent several hours discussing Brazil's present educational system and its inadequacies, the bolsa familia program and politics, the state of Brazil's economy, petrobras, jobs and job creation, and the fact that some Brazilian companies were spending time educating their employees.

After our discussions she was hopeful but still felt defeated by Brazil's government inept attitude towards solving problems.


There are millions of educated Brazilians who share her views, though this minority can be divided into 3 segments ( by age groups):

a)16-35: Continuing to put faith in the policies of the current government, ie. absolutely clueless on how to identifu the problems and solve them before they get out of control.
b)35-45: Feel betrayed, because this segment placed too much faith on the government´s ability to solve the problems
c)45 and above: Telling the first two segments "I told you so and don't complain now."

It is amazing how we get cowed down by our elected officials and think they are the God Almighty and get carried away by their "papo furado"!!
João
written by The Guest, July 23, 2008
I think she fell into the intersection of both group (a) and (b). Being disappointed and recognizing that nothing would change, even though she had a good job before she left Brazil, she decided to leave Brazil and take advantage of the opportunity that was presented to her, that is further advancement in her chosen career. The problem is how many others are there like her who are being recruited by international companies, universities and instituties.
João
written by The Guest, July 23, 2008
I posted my answer to the article you referred above under the article.
Still waiting for a response
written by Alejandro Hope, July 25, 2008
Ricardo,

Following your suggestion at RGE Monitor, I read the comments left by your readers here to see whether I could find an answer to my specific query. Sorry to say, I was disappointed but not surprised. You still have failed to answer a rather obvious question: why is it preferable to nationalize Petrobras (or buy-out minority shareholders) instead of merely raising royalty payments as a way to fund a SWF? The second route would save the Brazilian taxpayer about 120 billion dollars (or about 40% of your planned investment program) and a hell of a lot of grief and litigation (from shareholders that either a) refuse to sell or b) demand a premium).

And there is of course a third route: the government could sell its stake in Petrobras, stash the cash in a SWF, still raise royalty payments and fund whatever tranformative projects you can convince them to fund. After all, the current market price reflects the expected future after-tax earnings of Petrobras. So the government would be getting its money now and not in yearly installments over a 20 year period. Since you want a big bang of investment, this seems like a much quicker route to obtain funds than lashing out tons of cash to compensate minority shareholders and then wait years for the investment to pay off (with the ever-existing risk that it might not pay off)

Anyway,

Best regards.
...
written by João da Silva, July 26, 2008
And there is of course a third route: the government could sell its stake in Petrobras,


Like they did with TELEBRAS? smilies/wink.gif
Petrobras Renationalization - Actual Transaction
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 26, 2008
Here is what we are talking about regarding the renationalization of Petrobras.


The Brazilian government owns 55.7% of Petrobras' common shares.

Voting capital – Common shares

Capital Ownership (06/30/200smilies/cool.gif

Shareholders = Shares %

Common shares = 5.073.347.344 = 100.0%

Federal Government = 2,826,516,456 = 55.7 %

American Depository Receipts Level 3 = 1,347,913,454 = 26.6 %

Other foreigners = 176,667,328 = 3.5 %

Other entities = xxx = 14.3 %


Source: Petrobras website



Net Tangible Assets $ 65 billion USD as of 12/31/07


Market Cap $ 233 billion USD as of 07/25/08


As of 07/25/08

Petrobras is trading at around $ 52 USD per share

Traded in the range of $ 24 to $ 78 USD per share in the last 52wks


Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PBR



************


Here is how the transaction can be done right now.

As of July 25, 2008 there is 30 percent of Petrobras common shares in foreign hands

Value of Foreign holdings = $ 233 billion USD market cap @ 30 % = $ 70 billion USD

The Brazilian government would convert the 30 percent of foreign owned common shares into a long-term bond due in 30 years in US dollars paying current rate of interest for similar bonds being traded in the US right now.

The new bonds of Petrobras would continue to be trading in the US market – I guess many US pension funds would like to hold such a 30-year bond from such a fine corporation.

At the time of the transaction being completed the Brazilian government guarantees the payment of these bonds in exchange for the ownership of the extra 30 percent of common shares - after this entire transaction is complete the Brazilian government would be holding 85.7 percent of the common shares of Petrobras.

It is O.K. for Brazilian pension funds including Petrobras employees to continue holding the remaining common shares of Petrobras – about 14.3 percent of the total.

As a last resort the Brazilian government makes an offer to buy these 30 percent for $ 50 billion USD – and probably settle the actual purchase for a little more.

The above bond deal is the better deal of the 2 if the Brazilian government can go that route since inflation and the declining value of the US dollar would make that deal a better bet from a Brazilian point of view.


****


Note: It took me about ½ hour to put this information together, but if Petrobras is willing to go forward with this plan they probably can negotiate even a better deal for the 30 percent of Petrobras common stock being held by foreigners today.

By the way, in the case of a hostile take over a government has a lot more leverage than any other type of hostile take over just by companies trading in global stock exchanges.

A government such as Brazil can get away very easily with this type of renationalization when we consider that oil resources is a matter of national security and you want the local government be in complete control of such a resource.

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Henrique Meirelles should fight inflation at any cost in Brazil.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 28, 2008

Yes I am in favor of increasing the interest rates in Brazil to keep inflation under control.

If inflation gets out of the bottle then it becomes a nightmare once again for the Brazilian economy or for any country for that matter.

Even though some Brazilians might say what is the big deal about inflation since Brazilians leaned to live with inflation for a long time, and they got used to live in the world of illusion.

In the last few years inflation has been low for Brazilian standards, and it is a good idea to keep it that way.

The reason why the mortgage market started developing in Brazil in the last few years – I mean long-term mortgages – because Brazilians had inflation in a range that it is acceptable to long-term lenders.

But if inflation gets out of control in Brazil in no time long-term lending for mortgages would dry up and would kill the opportunity of developing that market even further in Brazil.

The reason long-term lending is taking its first steps in Brazil it is because the Brazilian economy has been keeping inflation under control in the last few years until people realized that the Brazilian government was serious about keeping inflation under control.

If inflation gets out of hand in no time this new credibility about Brazil fighting inflation would evaporate and we would go back to the days when long-term mortgage borrowings was no existent in Brazil.

Higher interest rate would not create more jobs, and also would hurt the real estate market, but that is the price that Brazilians have to pay for economic stability.

By increasing the interest rate to fight inflation I know that the government is sacrificing some economic growth in exchange for economic stability.

Ch.c thinks that because he is in Switzerland working in money laundering for the crooks of the world that makes him an expert in high finances.

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The new oil industry global reality.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 28, 2008
Ch.c still have not grasped that there is only one difference (besides a few figures that changed to reflect current prices and inflation) between my article about China investing in Brazil and the current article about Petrobras.

The only thing that changed was from depending on a foreign government to implement my economic development plan for Brazil on the current plan the Brazilian government would get the funding from an internal source in Brazil which is already available to the Brazilian government.

I know this concept is very hard for Ch.c to grasp, but having a local source of funding in Brazil (in this case Petrobras) it is a better choice than depend on any foreign source of funding. (Including China, IMF, World Bank, SWF, or direct foreign investment from any other place.)

Ch.c comments reflect the fact that he has not grasped what has been happening in the oil industry around the world in the last few years. If can’t grasp it is his problem and not mine.

Finally someone from Wall Street posted information on the comments section of RGE Monitor and based on his posting that person have grasped why Petrobras is going to be renationalized after the Brazilian government realizes what is happening around the world in the oil industry. It is no coincidence that oil resources are more and more under government control around the world, and many countries have nationalized their oil industry lately including Russia, and Venezuela, and at the same time that this is happening companies such as Exxon/Mobil it seems to me that slowly they are getting out of the oil business.

In a nutshell: if the Brazilian government does not renationalize Petrobras in the near future they are going to look stupid to the rest of the world.

It is that simple, and the smart money has already got the point.

Countries from around the world very soon they will be forced to reevaluate all its natural resources and how best to use these scarce resources (including oil. freshwater resources, and so on) based on a complete new set of realities affecting the global economy of today and the coming decades. In this new process they are going to take in consideration global demand for all kinds of commodities, the impact of global warming, inflation and so on…

Anyway, inflation is bad for everyone and takes away the purchase power from everybody including the very rich to the very poor who is barely able to survive on a minimum standard of living.

It is very hard to implement a long-term plan – a plan geared to build the foundations for the future. It is like my plan is building the foundation of a new building and everybody is discussing how the 3rd floor or the penthouse is going to look like after the building is finished. But it does not matter what the building is going to look like without the foundations you can’t have a new building since it is hard to start building on the 5th floor. For the building to stand you first have to build the foundation of the building and then build from the 1st to the 4th floor before you can build the 5th floor.

My plan is about trying to move Brazil into the future with this new economic development plan. It is a plan that has to be implemented very soon otherwise we won’t be able to implement the plan if we wait too long. We have a very small window of opportunity to implement this plan.

We can’t expect the free market to do this kind of long-term plan since the free market is chasing only how to make a quick buck and nothing else. If the free market took in consideration the future of the country and its most efficient use of scarce resources then the United States would not be in such a massive economic mess regarding energy, transportation, pension system, health care system, airline industry, automobile industry, educational system, crumbling infrastructure, a dying space program, a banking and financial system that is operating in critical condition, and so on…

Everybody who is against my plan is because they are looking at the short-term and not at the long-term as my plan requires.

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on education...
written by Shelly1, July 28, 2008
Ricardo,

We all know that we need an increase funding for education. However, we also need to find ways to keep kids in school. I like the German system, not all children will end up getting a degree or a post-doc, but vocational schools are excellent and provide the right training for kids with different talents and career aspirations.

In Germany, there is the Hauptschle (grades 5-9), Realschule (5-10) and Gymnasium (5-13). During Hauptschule years, kids are allowed to express themselves in different disciplines, and if the parents agree, an apprenticeship training begins. I have at least 2
Brazilian friends living in Germany and they are extremely happy at how the education system works. We have to increase the vocational education in Brazil, upgrade our teaching philosophy and methodology, fund our universities (private and public).

It takes at least 15-18 to educate a child (not counting undergraduate and graduate education). Taking that into account, I can say for sure that many kids in Brazil aren't getting the education they deserve. We cannot grow as a country without education. We have yet to invest in infrastructure, technology, health and education.

Philanthropy is unusual, Brazilians aren't used to donate to good causes. Xuxa (you can bombard me on this one) may have many faults, but her organization is unusual in Brazil. If more people donated and did charity work, we could would see a real difference in our society. The biggest issue I see is getting people involved, we are too preoccupied with our day-to-day chores, and we do forget that an hour at a local orphanage can mean the world to a child.

Brazilians in general like to say that we are a peaceful nation. Are we?
Regarding education Part 1 of 4
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 29, 2008
I agree with you that education is very important and helps a country move forward economically and vocational schools can educate the kids to do some practical and useful.

But I also know that I am not an expert in the education area and I have a lot of questions regarding today’s educational system and the world that these kids are going to live on.

I know that the current education system is preparing the kids for the world of yesterday, and that is a problem. It is hard to get politicians, educators and all the machinery that have been solidified around these old educational system to change and adapt and start preparing the kids for the world of tomorrow. Remember politicians need votes, the teachers have powerful unions that want to keep things the way they are or have been for a long time, and so on… In the meantime they continue educating the kids to work on a job market that is very dynamic and changes very fast or for a world that no longer exists.

Lately the concept of work has been changing in a drastic way; the concept of work that has been around in the last 200 years anyway in the advanced industrial countries.

It seems like we are going back in time when there were no 9 to 5 jobs, but people did work only when the work needed to be done and they worked very hard at those times. And the movie industry is one of the best models of what the concept of work is going to look like in the future.

In the movie industry you assemble a group of people to make your movie including people with all kids of expertise actors, directors, camera people, writers, and all the other support necessary to make a moving picture. At the end of the project they break the team up and reassemble again only when there is a new movie to be made and it does not need to be with the same group of people that you used the last time, the new movie can be made with a complete new group of people.

In a nutshell: we need a new revolution in education to educate the new generation in the new job market of the 21st Century.

I know one thing for a fact and that is why it is imperative that the Brazilian government wires the country with fiber optics and high-speed broadband technology and make it available everywhere at very low cost for users – this is a very basic requirement for Brazil to be connected to the new global economy and if you are not connected to the lop then your country is out of luck and you will not be able to participate in the global economy of the 21st Century.

As I mentioned before after reading books such as “Wikinomics” by Dan Tapscott, or “Revolutionary Wealth” by Alvin Toffler and “The End of Work” by Jeremy Rifkin among others, I realized that there is a complete disconnect between the current educational system and the real world where these kids will find jobs in the coming years.

Let me start by quoting from the book “Wikinomics” - by Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams - Published Jan 2007

In chapter 2, we explain how a perfect storm is gathering force and shipwrecking the old corporation in wave after wave of change…

…Born between 1977 and 1996 inclusive, this generation is bigger than the baby boom itself, and through sheer demographic muscle they will dominate the twenty-first century.

…internationally the Net Generation is huge, numbering over two billion people. This is the first generation to grow up in the digital age, and that makes them a force for collaboration. They are growing up bathed in bits. …This is the collaboration generation for one main reason: Unlike their parents in the United States, who watched twenty-four hours of television per week, these youngsters are growing up interacting.

Rather than being passive recipients of mass consumer culture, the Net Gen spend time searching, reading, scrutinizing, authenticating, collaborating, and organizing (everything from their MP3 files to protest demonstrations). The Internet makes life an ongoing, massive collaboration, and this generation loves it. They typically can’t imagine a life where citizens didn’t have the tools to constantly think critically, exchange views, challenge, authenticate, verify, or debunk. While their parents were passive consumers of media, youth today are active creators of media content and hungry for interaction.

They are also a generation of scrutinizers. They are more skeptical of authority as they sift through information at the speed of light by themselves or with their network of peers.

…Further, this is the first time in human history when children are authorities on something really important. An Net Gen’s father may have been an authority on model trains. Today young people are authorities on the digital revolution that is changing every institution in society.

…As workers, this generation will transform the workplace and the way business is conducted to an extent not witnessed since the “organization man” of the 1950’s.

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Regarding education Part 2 of 4
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 29, 2008
The old corporation was strongly hierarchical, with the boss being an authority on every part of the business. As eighty million young Americans enter the workforce and marketplace they will be a powerful force for all kinds of unorthodox collaborations.

… The Old Hierarchy is Dead

… You could argue that we're becoming an economy unto ourselves—a vast global network of specialized producers that swap and exchange services for entertainment, sustenance, and learning.

The lesson for business leaders is that the old monolithic multinational that creates value in a closed hierarchical fashion is dead. Winning companies today have open and porous boundaries and compete by reaching outside their walls to harness external knowledge, resources, and capabilities. Rather than do everything internally, these companies set a context for innovation and then invite their customers, partners, and other third parties to co-create their products and services.

… A new breed of 21st-century enterprise is emerging—one that opens its doors to the world; co-innovates with everyone, especially customers; shares resources that were previously closely guarded; harnesses the power of mass collaboration; and behaves not as a multi-national, but as something new: a truly global business. These new modus operandi revolve around four powerful new ideas: openness, "peering," sharing, and acting globally.

In this series, we build on the lessons from our book, Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything, to show how leaders are harnessing these new principles to drive important changes in their industries and even rewrite the rules of competition.

… As the late-19th century chemist and microbiologist Louis Pasteur famously said, chance favors the prepared mind. The same could be said of innovation. Companies face tough dilemmas everyday for which there is, somewhere, a uniquely prepared mind—someone with the right combination of expertise and experience to solve the problem. Conventional wisdom says companies should find those people, hire them, and retain them with money or perks.

But today, a growing marketplace for ideas, innovations, and uniquely qualified minds is changing the long-standing rules of innovation and talent management. Companies seeking solutions to seemingly insoluble problems can tap the insights of hundreds of thousands of enterprising scientists without having to employ everybody full-time. This shift is rippling through Corporate America and changing the way companies invent and develop products and services.

… The talent required to lead path-breaking innovation will increasingly reside in locations such as Brazil, China, India, and Eastern Europe, largely because a seismic demographic transition unfolding today places the locus of growth in the global economy (both in terms of consumer demand and the supply of highly skilled knowledge workers) squarely in these developing markets.


*****


“The End of Work”

In 1995, a book was published, "The End of Work" by Jeremy Rifkin, which described in detail the current and future trends in the job market. I recommend reading that book to anyone who wants to understand the current catastrophic job market.

I did read Jeremy Rifkin’s book more than once and I also saw his presentation on this subject on a television program – His book really opened my eyes, and I learned a lot from him, I also read most of his other published books.

It is very hard for any country to create good paying jobs for everyone, to build a solid middle class and in turn generate economic growth and prosperity. Each year that goes by, it becomes even harder to create new jobs in the economy.

I will quote the following from Jeremy Rifkin's mind-opening book. He wrote in the introduction: "Global unemployment has now reached its highest level since the great depression of the 1930's. More than 800 million human beings are now unemployed or underemployed in the world. That figure is likely to rise sharply between now and the turn of the century as millions of new entrants into the workforce find themselves without jobs, many victims of a technology revolution that is fast replacing human beings with machines in virtually every sector and industry of the global economy.

"...In the past, when new technologies have replaced workers in a given sector, new sectors have always emerged to absorb the displaced laborers. Today, all three of the traditional sectors of the economy—agriculture, manufacturing, and services—are experiencing technological displacement, forcing millions onto the unemployment rolls. The only new sector emerging is the knowledge sector, made up of a small elite of entrepreneurs, scientists, technicians, computer programmers, professional educators and consultants.

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Regarding education Part 3 of 4
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 29, 2008
While this sector is growing, it is not expected to absorb more than a fraction of the hundreds of millions who will be eliminated in the next several decades in the wake of revolutionary advances in the information and communications sciences.

"...Now, for the first time, human labor is being systematically eliminated from the production process. ...Substituting software for employees...To begin with, more than 75 percent of the labor force in most industrial nations engage in work that is little more than simple repetitive tasks. Automated machinery, robots, and increasingly sophisticated computers can perform many if not most of these jobs. In the United States alone, that means that in the years ahead more than 90 million jobs in the labor force of 124 million are potentially vulnerable to replacement by machines. With current surveys showing that less than 5 percent of companies around the world have even begun to make the transition to the new machine culture, massive unemployment of the kind never before experienced seems all but inevitable in the coming decades.

"...A study was published in 1989 by the International Metalworkers Federation in Geneva forecasting that within thirty years (by the year 2019), as little as 2 percent of the world's current labor force will be needed to produce all the goods necessary for total demand." I want to remind you that it is 2 percent of today's world labor force and not 2 percent of the world labor force in 2019, which could have many more millions of people.


*******


Here I am quoting some information from Rifkin’s new updated version of the “End of Work” that was published in 2000.

From the beginning, civilization -- as well as people's daily lives -- has been structured in large part around the concept of work. But now, for the first time in history, human labor is being systematically eliminated from the economic process. In the coming century employment, as we have come to know it, is likely to be phased out in most of the industrialized nations of the world. A new generation of sophisticated information and communication technologies is being introduced into a wide variety of work situations. These machines, together with new forms of business reorganization and management, are forcing millions of blue- and white-collar workers into temporary jobs and unemployment lines -- or, worse, breadlines.

Our corporate leaders, economists, and politicians tell us that the rising unemployment figures represent only short-term "adjustments" that will be taken care of as the global economy advances into the Information Age. But millions of working people remain skeptical. In the United States alone, corporations are eliminating more than 2 million jobs annually. Although some new jobs are being created in the economy, they are for the most part in the low-paying sectors, and many are only temp jobs or part-time positions.

The global economy is undergoing a fundamental transformation in the nature of work brought on by the new technologies of the Information Age revolution. These profound technological and economic changes will force every country to rethink long-held assumptions about the nature of politics and citizenship.

ON THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY

At the heart of this historic shift are sophisticated computers, robotics, telecommunications and other Information Age technologies that are fast replacing human beings, especially in the manufacturing sector.

The number of factory workers in the United States has declined from 33% of the work force to under 17% in the past 30 years, even as U.S. companies have continued to increase output and overall production, maintaining the country's position as the number-one manufacturing power in the world.

Sophisticated computers, robots, telecommunications, and other Information Age technologies are replacing human beings in nearly every sector. Factory workers, secretaries, receptionists, clerical workers, salesclerks, bank tellers, telephone operators, librarians, wholesalers, and middle managers are just a few of the many occupations destined for virtual extinction.

Automated technologies have been reducing the need for human labor in every manufacturing category. Within ten years, less than 12% of the U.S. work force will be on the factory floor, and by the year 2020, less than 2% of the entire global work force will still be engaged in factory work. Over the next quarter-century we will see the virtual elimination of the blue-collar, mass assembly-line worker from the production process.

For most of the 1980s it was fashionable to blame foreign competition and cheap labor markets abroad for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States. In some industries, especially the garment trade and electronics, that has been the case. Recently, however, economists have begun to revise their views.

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Regarding education Part 4 of 4
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 29, 2008
Paul Krugman of Stanford and Robert Lawrence of Harvard suggest, on the basis of extensive data, that "the concern, widely voiced during the 1950s and 1960s, that industrial workers would lose their jobs because of automation, is closer to the truth than the current preoccupation with a presumed loss of manufacturing jobs because of foreign competition...."

Until recently, economists and politicians assumed that displaced factory workers would find new jobs in the service sector. Now, however, the service sector is also beginning to automate: in the banking, insurance and wholesale and retail sectors, companies are eliminating layer after layer of management and infrastructure, replacing the traditional corporate pyramid and mass white-collar work forces with small, highly skilled professional work teams, using state-of-the-art software and telecommunications technologies. Even those companies that continue to use large numbers of white-collar workers have changed the conditions of employment, transferring workers from permanent jobs to "just in time" employment, including leased, temporary and contingent work, in an effort to reduce wage and benefit packages, cut labor costs and increase profit margins.

Acknowledging that both the manufacturing and service sectors are quickly re-engineering their infrastructures and automating their production processes, many mainstream economists and politicians have pinned their hopes on new job opportunities along the information superhighway and in cyberspace. Although the "knowledge sector" will create some new jobs, they will be too few to absorb the millions of workers displaced by the new technologies.

Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich, for example, talks incessantly of the need for more highly skilled technicians, computer programmers, engineers, and professional workers. While Secretary, he barnstormed the country urging workers to retrain, retool, and reinvent themselves in time to gain a coveted place on the high-tech express. But he ought to know better. Even if the entire workforce could be retrained for very skilled, high-tech jobs which, of course, it can't there will never be enough positions in the elite knowledge sector to absorb the millions let go as automation penetrates into every aspect of the production process.

Laura D'Andrea Tyson, who headed the National Economic Council, argues that the Information Age will bring a plethora of new technologies and products that we can't as yet even anticipate, and therefore it will create many new kinds of jobs. Tyson notes that when the automobile replaced the horse and buggy, some people lost their jobs in the buggy trade but many more found work on the assembly line. Tyson believes that the same operating rules will govern the information era.

Her argument is compelling. Still, I can't help but think that she may be wrong. Even if thousands of new products come along, they are likely to be manufactured in near-workerless factories and marketed by near-virtual companies requiring ever-smaller, more highly skilled workforces.

It is naive to believe that large numbers of unskilled and skilled blue-collar workers who lose their livelihoods will be retrained to assume the new jobs that are being created. The new professionals-the so-called symbolic analysts or knowledge workers-come from the fields of science, engineering, management, consulting, teaching, marketing, media, and entertainment. While their number will continue to grow, it will remain small compared to the number of workers displaced by the new generation of "thinking machines."

Peter Drucker says quite bluntly that "the disappearance of labor as a key factor of production" is going to emerge as the critical "unfinished business of capitalist society ..."

It's not as if this is a revelation. For years futurists such as Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt have lectured the rest of us that the end of the industrial age also means the end of "mass production" and "mass labor." What they never mention is what "the masses" should do after they become redundant ...

… ON THE ROLE OF EMPLOYERS

The biggest surprise I've encountered in the fledgling debate over rethinking work has been the response of some business leaders. I have found genuine concern among a small but growing number of business executives over the critical question of what to do with the millions of people whose labor will be needed less, or not at all, in an increasingly automated age.

Many executives have close friends who have been re-engineered out of a job replaced by the new technologies of the Information Age. Others have had to take part in the painful process of letting employees go in order to optimize the bottom line. Some tell me they worry whether their own children will be able to find a job when they enter the high-tech labor market in a few years.

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Reply to Shelly
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, July 29, 2008
Keep in mind about what I mentioned on the above posting about education and the reality that has been happening in the United States for many years. Look at what is happening to millions and millions of very well educated people in the US - the United States has more than 20 million very well educated people that they don’t know what to do with these people. And in future years millions and millions of well-educated people will have a hard time finding work and a way to support themselves.

The world economy is being re-arranged like never before and I don’t know how to design a new educational system that is compatible with the needs of the 21st Century.

On April 7, 2008 I wrote a piece and I said the following:

I heard in the last week a number of economists saying that the United States is not heading for a New Great Depression and one of the first things that they mentioned to back up their position is the number of unemployed people during the Great Depression. They say that the unemployment figures reached the level of between 20 and 25 percent of the labor force in the 1930’s.

The problem with these people is that they are not connecting the dots and they are not taking a closer look to the real data. They are not taking a lot of information into account and they accept the meaningless unemployment rate figures published by the US Labor Department.

Data from the US Labor Department shows that the current unemployment rate in the US is 5.1 percent. But if you make some rational adjustments to the unemployment rate as reported by the US Labor Department, you get a complete different picture.

The US Labor Department keeps unemployment rates low at around 5 to 6 percent range using a deceiving system of reporting. It is very easy – just create a new category for “Discouraged Workers” and you dump in that category any adjustments necessary to achieve the desired fictitious unemployment rate.

Since George W. Bush became president over 7 years ago – about 5 million people from age group 44 to 57 disappeared from the US work force (most of them with advanced degrees) – you can find them during the week playing with their laptops and cell phones, and looking busy at Starbucks, Borders, Barnes and Noble and so on all around the country. (This trend reflects a real waste of talent and practical experiences going on today in the Unite States).

Another large group – probably in the millions – decided to call themselves consultants (because of various reasons including their age, pride, and so on). Others even though they still reasonable young (on their 50’s) decided to qualify themselves as retired.

Another very large group of approximately 4 million mostly unemployed people are hiding on disability. In the first 3 years of the Bush administration the number of people who started receiving disability benefits went through the roof; they increased from 1.5 million people to 5.5 million people over a period of 3 years before the Bush administration realized what was happening, since then they closed that door even to the people who are really disabled.

But for all practical purposes we know that there are about 4 million people who would be working if there were jobs on the economy who are hiding on the disability figures.

If we make further adjustments for the over 10 million people who are underemployed or call themselves consultants or decided to further their education because they could not find a job, then a more realistic picture appears of the unemployment rate in the United States, with the actual unemployment rate that would be approaching very fast the 20 percent unemployment rate.

Let’s see if after connecting the dots we get a better picture of what is really happening inside the US labor market.

The latest fictitious unemployment rate reported by the US Labor Department was 5.1 percent.

Then after you make some adjustments such as:

Discouraged Workers = at least 5 million people

Hiding on the disability statistics = 4 million people

Americans that are in prison because of lack of opportunities = 1.5 million people

Americans who are underemployed or decided to further their education because they can’t find a job = 10 million people

There was an official measure of 7.7 million unemployed in the U.S. as of March 2008 after we adjust for the above for the extra 20.5 people not included on the US government data then the adjusted number of unemployed people in the United States is 28 million people and the real unemployment rate is around 19 percent as of March 2008.

Out of the 2.3 million in prison today in the United States probably 1.5 million would not be there if they had job opportunities inside the US economy.

.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, July 31, 2008
This article was written under the assumption that every thing will be gine after PBR is nationalized. The assumption has serious problem. The article concentrates on how to spend the money coming from PBR. The author gives an excellent example of a fine nationalized oil company, Aramco – the national oil company of Saudi Arabia. However, the author fails to explain why so many nationalized oil companies in the world not functioning so well. Whenever anyone mentions some counter examples to him. He replies with the statements that Brazil is different and it cannot apply to Brazil.

First of all, I would like to give as many as examples that I can to illustrate the problem of nationalized companies.

1.If you ride a train from Tokyo city to the Narita airport, it costs you much more to ride on the Japan National Railway than a private railway company, which can offer similar service. The Japanese people wishes to privatize their national railway company for long.
2.Taiwan’s China Airlines is a semi-nationalized airline. It has one of the worst safety records in the world. Even the Taiwanese people wishes to avoid it. The private own Eva Air on the island is popular and can sell for higher airfare.
3.The state-owned Yuan-Shan Hotel in Taiwan cannot be turned around after so many attempts even though it has one of the best locations on the island, and its architecture is one of the best on the island.
4. So many people have pointed out the problems of nationalized oil companies of Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, and Nigeria etc. I would like to add Indonesia as well.
5.UK had privatized their railway companies given to the problems in the past.
6. In the past, PBR cost $40 a barrel to pump oil out of ground when PBR was nationalized. How much does it cost now?
7. In USA, the defense department would rather let private companies to develop their weapons, not let a government agency to run the main show. Anyone can buy a share in those companies. Why? It is because the private sector is more efficient. They face competition but government agencies do not!

I can continue to give more examples. The author fails to recognize that it is much easily to pump oil out of the ground in Saudi Arabia than to pump oil from the 5000m deep oceans. Saudia Arabia’s Aramco is a fine company. Saudia Arabia is governed by a king but Brazil is not. It all depends on who is in control of the government. The author fails to explain why so many nationalized companies fail.

Canada has great oil reserve in the world along with other natural resources. Canada never thinks to nationalize their oil companies. The government allows oil companies compete with each other. Canadian enjoys nuclear reactor, high speed Internet, good education system, and world-class high way system. Oh! Canadian does not have any high-speed train. The author can say Canada is different from Brazil. You do not understand Brazil.

Brazil along with PBR has just recently been upgraded to the investment grade. Has the author ever think about the possibilities that once PBR has been nationalized, PBR’s productivity falls because PBR only needs to answer the call of politicians. The cost rises and profit declines. PBR is downgraded to the junk bond status. The cost of borrowing rises. PBR needs capital to pump oil from the 5000m deep oceans. The profit further declines because of the rising borrowing cost. The dream of high speed Internet and nuclear reactor will be gone.

The author also suggests the Brazilian government to issue 30-year bond to exchange the foreign shares in other web sites. It really bothers me given the default history of the Brazilian government. I wonder how many shareholders love the idea.

I would say the author’s plan might bring economic disaster to Brazil. The plan was drafted under the assumption that everything would be fine once PBR is nationalized. The author fails to analyze the risks once PBR is nationalized. The author also failed to explain why the productivity of PBR rose after PBR NOT-nationalized so many years ago.

In short, the oil belongs to the Brazilian people. I have many Brazilian friends. I like them. I hope Brazil well. To the best interest of Brazilian, it is much better to keep the competition intact. The government should think how to make a cut in the profit from the oil and use the money to build the infrastructures. Nationalized PBR will not work.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 01, 2008
Hi Ricardo C. Amara,

I have read your article, “The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil”. I think that it is breath taking to read your article. Please keep your hands off China.

With all the respect, if you ask Brazilian government to nationalize PBR, why should China invest in Brazil? You ask China to invest in Brazilian water. After so many years, when water is in high demand, you may ask Brazilian government to nationalize water after oil!

You ask China to invest on your dream of nuclear reactor, high speed Internet … etc. Why does not China invest in China? You are only a dreamer.

You also ask Brazilian government to adopt the New Asian Currency. You do not even have any understanding of Asia. I would say in 50 years time that Asia would not have that new Asian Currency. Chinese Yuan is not a free float currency.

Please keep your hands off China and Brazil as well. China is going to be a capitalist country. Why should China invest in a backward looking country, which you suggest.

Your PBR nationalization plan just simply keeps any foreign investment off Brazil in the future.

Regards,

Tom
The New York Times - Great article about Brazil.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 01, 2008
July 31, 2008

Today The New York Times published a great front page article about the Brazilian economy.

Thank you and congratulations to The New York Times for publishing such a extraordinary article about Brazil. Most the time when I see articles about Brazil for some reason they always have to add negative information even when the article is supposed to be positive about Brazil.

But the enclosed article published by the NYT was positive all the way and placed a very positive spotlight in the Brazilian economy.

I am aware of the major economic improvements that are happening in the Brazilian economy, but most people prefer to beat to death what has happened in the past - and these people are missing the boat.

I always have been proud of being a Brazilian, and now I am even prouder.


*****


“Strong Economy Propels Brazil to World Stage”
By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO
Published: July 31, 2008
The New York Times

… Today her country is lifting itself up in much the same way. Brazil, South America’s largest economy, is finally poised to realize its long-anticipated potential as a global player, economists say, as the country rides its biggest economic expansion in three decades.

That growth is being felt in nearly all parts of the economy, creating a new class of super rich even as people like Ms. Sousa lift themselves into an expanding middle class.

…Long famous for its unequal distribution of wealth, Brazil has shrunk its income gap by six percentage points since 2001, more than any other country in South America this decade, said Francisco Ferreira, a lead economist at the World Bank.

… While the top 10 percent of Brazil’s earners saw their cumulative income rise by 7 percent from 2001 to 2006, the bottom 10 percent shot up by 58 percent, according to Marcelo Côrtes Neri, the director of the Center for Social Policies at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Rio de Janeiro.

But Brazil is also outspending most of its neighbors on social programs, and overall public spending continues to be nearly four times as high as what Mexico spends as a percentage of its gross national product, Mr. Ferreira said.

The momentum of its economic expansion is expected to last. As the United States and parts of Europe struggle with recession and the fallout from housing crises, Brazil’s economy shows few of the vulnerabilities of other emerging powers.

It has greatly diversified its industrial base, has huge potential to expand a booming agricultural sector into virgin fields and holds a tremendous pool of untapped natural resources. New oil discoveries will thrust Brazil into the ranks of the global oil powers within the next decade.

Yet while exports of commodities like oil and agricultural goods have driven much of its recent growth, Brazil is less and less dependent on them, economists say, having the advantage of a huge domestic market — 185 million people — that has grown wealthier with the success of people like Ms. Sousa.

In fact, with a stronger currency and inflation mostly in check, Brazilians are on a spending spree that has become a prime motor for the economy, which grew 5.4 percent last year.

They are buying both Brazilian goods and a rising flood of imported products. Many businesses have relaxed credit terms to allow Brazilians to pay for refrigerators, cars and even plastic surgery over years instead of months, despite some of the highest interest rates in the world. In June the country reached 100 million credit cards issued, a 17 percent jump over last year.

… Some economists say a slowdown in the rest of the world’s economy, especially in Asia, which is soaking up much of Brazil’s exports of soybeans and iron ore, could crimp growth here.

“But that probability is small,” said Alfredo Coutiño, the senior economist for Latin America for Moody’s Economy.com.

In fact, because Brazil’s economy has become so diversified in recent years, the country is less susceptible to a hangover from the struggling United States economy.

Brazil’s exports to the United States represent just 2.5 percent of Brazil’s gross national product, compared with 25 percent of G.N.P. for Mexican exports, according to Moody’s.

“What makes Brazil more resilient is that the rest of the world matters less,” said Don Hanna, the head of emerging market economics at Citibank.

The rest of the world certainly has helped. Soaring prices for minerals and other commodities have created a new class of super rich. The number of Brazilians with liquid fortunes exceeding $1 million grew by 19 percent last year, third behind China and India, according to a survey by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini....

You can read the entire article at:

Source:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07...ref=slogin


.
Reply to Tom Lloyds Part 1 of 4
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 01, 2008
Ricardo: Based on your posting I assume that you have money invested on Petrobras stock and you don’t want the Brazilian government to take the candy away from you.


***


Lloyds: This article was written under the assumption that every thing will be gine after PBR is nationalized. The assumption has serious problem. The article concentrates on how to spend the money coming from PBR. The author gives an excellent example of a fine nationalized oil company, Aramco – the national oil company of Saudi Arabia. However, the author fails to explain why so many nationalized oil companies in the world not functioning so well. Whenever anyone mentions some counter examples to him. He replies with the statements that Brazil is different and it cannot apply to Brazil.


***


Ricardo: For all practical purposes over 55 percent of Petrobras common stock has been controlled by the Brazilian government all along.

I am suggesting that the Brazilian government takes the candy away only from the portion that is foreign owned about 30 percent of the common stock and after the renationalization is completed about 15 percent of the common stock still be on the hands of Brazilian pension plans, some Brazilian investors, and the employees of Petrobras


***


Lloyds: First of all, I would like to give as many as examples that I can to illustrate the problem of nationalized companies.

…4. So many people have pointed out the problems of nationalized oil companies of Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, and Nigeria etc. I would like to add Indonesia as well.


***


Ricardo: You forgot to add Iran to your list, but I am not going into that.

Anyway, today’s Russia is a piece of what used to be the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union went through a complete financial collapse less than 2 decades ago.

Then a bunch of people stole everything that they could from the old state companies and a few years ago President Putin got some the assets back in the oil and gas industry. It will take a little time but eventually they will put their act together in Russia.

In Venezuela the oil industry used to be in private hands from 1910 to 1976 when the oil industry was nationalized in Venezuela. You can read the entire story of the oil industry in Venezuela at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H...l_industry

By the way, when the oil industry was on private hands in Venezuela that did not help the Venezuelan economy or the Venezuelan people for that matter. But a hand full of people made a lot of money. The country Venezuela did not benefit from its oil industry being on private hands and the oil being explored by the major oil companies of the world.

Nigeria has been a basket case all along and that country has a constant civil war going on.

Regarding Mexico’s oil industry you can read the reason for the decline of oil production in Mexico at the following website:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_in_Mexico

I don’t know what happened in Indonesia.

You guys always want to compare Brazil with the countries that you think are failures on your view such as Venezuela, Mexico, and Nigeria.

How about if you compare Brazil and Petrobras with countries that has a nationalized oil industry and are very successful economically such as Norway, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE.


****


Lloyds: Anyone can buy a share in those companies. Why? It is because the private sector is more efficient. They face competition but government agencies do not!

I can continue to give more examples. The author fails to recognize that it is much easily to pump oil out of the ground in Saudi Arabia than to pump oil from the 5000m deep oceans…. The author fails to explain why so many nationalized companies fail.


*****


Ricardo: If you read my article then you know that Petrobras is already the most advanced company in the world in the area of deep sea oil exploration. Petrobras is the state-of-the-art in technology today in that area.

And the 15 percent of common shares of Petrobras owned by Brazilians (pension plans and on private hands) will keep the company honest in the future.

.
Reply to Tom Lloyds Part 2 of 4
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 01, 2008
By the way, explain to me why foreign ownership of 30 percent of Petrobras common stock is so important for the know how of the company about oil exploration.

Please tell me what kind of benefits these foreign common shareholders can bring to Petrobras that would influence Petrobras performance that would be different if this common stock were owned instead by the Brazilian government?

Please explain to me why FMR LLC holding 2.77 percent of the common stock of Petrobras valued at US$ 7.2 billion dollars helps Petrobras in deep sea exploring but if that same 2.77 percent is owned by the Brazilian government then Petrobras would get completely stupid overnight and would become a basket case.

The 30 percent common stock ownership by foreigners are all owned by investment companies, mutual funds, major banks, and hedge funds, and all these people are interested in making a quick buck and nothing else.

FIDELITY LOW-PRICED STOCK FUND own about 1 percent of the common stock of Petrobras worth about US$ 3 billion. Why this ownership by Fidelity Fund of Petrobras common stock is superior to the ownership by the Brazilian government?


TOP INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS

HolderShares% OutValue*Reported
FMR LLC70,253,1402.77$7,173,548,12531-Mar-08
MARSICO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC54,805,0862.16$5,596,147,33131-Mar-08
Capital World Investors54,552,5402.15$5,570,359,85931-Mar-08
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLP34,359,7521.35$3,508,474,27631-Mar-08
BAILLIE GIFFORD AND COMPANY32,072,9301.26$3,274,966,88231-Mar-08
DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT12,795,938.50$1,306,593,22931-Mar-08
FISHER INVESTMENTS, INC.12,641,872.50$1,290,861,54931-Mar-08
BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION12,595,104.50$1,286,086,06931-Mar-08
PRICE (T.ROWE) ASSOCIATES INC11,009,820.43$1,124,212,72031-Mar-08
OPPENHEIMER FUNDS, INC.10,860,782.43$1,108,994,45031-Mar-08


TOP MUTUAL FUND HOLDERS

HolderShares% OutValue*Reported
FIDELITY LOW-PRICED STOCK FUND22,600,000.89$2,744,092,00030-Apr-08
EUROPACIFIC GROWTH FUND22,235,740.88$2,270,491,41131-Mar-08
FIDELITY CONTRAFUND INC16,947,900.67$1,194,826,95031-May-08
NEW PERSPECTIVE FUND INC13,634,000.54$1,392,167,74031-Mar-08
ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX FUND10,654,610.42$751,150,00531-May-08
GROWTH FUND OF AMERICA INC9,906,400.39$1,011,542,50431-Mar-08
FIDELITY LATIN AMERICA FUND (US)8,913,520.35$628,403,16031-May-08
VANGUARD SPECIALIZED-ENERGY FUND8,563,400.34$1,039,768,02830-Apr-08
Columbia Fds Ser Tr I-Columbia Value & Restructuring Fd8,100,000.32$827,091,00031-Mar-08
OPPENHEIMER DEVELOPING MARKETS7,991,200.32$937,687,40829-Feb-08


* Value shown is computed using the security's price on the report date given.


Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=PBR


*****


Lloyds: Canada has great oil reserve in the world along with other natural resources. Canada never thinks to nationalize their oil companies. The government allows oil companies compete with each other.


*****


Ricardo: I give you a simple answer here: only 7 percent of global on the ground oil resources are in private hands and the rest about 93 percent is under government control.

Let me take the case of the United States probably a country that you consider to be very successful in the oil industry.

The oil industry is a mess in the United States even though the oil industry could be looking for oil in a million places that they have the rights to explore inside of the US if the oil companies were not playing games with the American people and they keep crying that what is holding them from exploring for oil in the US is because they can’t explore for oil in the coast and in parts of Alaska.

Besides, the oil industry in the US is having a real free ride since the Iraq war at a cost of trillions of dollars to US taxpayers have been fought to secure new sources of oil for American oil companies, but the oil companies don’t pick up the tab related to the war costs that will help them make billions of US dollars in profits in the future from Iraqi oil.

If you adjust the profits of companies such as Exxon Mobil to reflect the cost of securing these new sources of oil in Iraq then the oil industry in the United States would be considered highly inefficient by any standard.

By the way, with profits after tax of around US$ 45 billion dollars per year the best investment that Exxon Mobil could find in 2007 to invest their windfall profits was to buy back their own stock on the stock market.


*****
.
Reply to Tom Lloyds Part 3 of 4
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 01, 2008
Lloyds: The author also suggests the Brazilian government to issue 30-year bond to exchange the foreign shares in other web sites. It really bothers me given the default history of the Brazilian government. I wonder how many shareholders love the idea.

I would say the author’s plan might bring economic disaster to Brazil. The plan was drafted under the assumption that everything would be fine once PBR is nationalized. The author fails to analyze the risks once PBR is nationalized.


*****


Ricardo: Again Lloyds is talking like someone who does not want the Brazilian government to take the candy away from him. He wants to participate on this gravy train anyway he can.

Today the Brazilian economy looks terrific and is going through its best period in the last 100 years, and the future looks great for Brazil.

If you don’t want the 30-year bonds that you would get from the Brazilian government I am sure that there would be a lot of people lining up to take away from you these bonds and you don’t have to worry about future default by the Brazilian government - just sell the bonds as soon as you receive them.

As far as being a disaster for the Brazilian economy I can’t see why? Just because 30 percent of the common shares of Petrobras changed hands from a bunch of investment companies, hedge funds, and mutual funds and now the Brazilian government would own these common shares. After this nationalization is complete about 15 percent of Petrobras common shares still be on private hands.

The risks would be close to zero to Brazil and to Petrobras if the Brazilian government follows my suggestion as per above plan.

As a matter of fact the Brazilian government looks foolish if they don’t nationalize the foreign own common shares of Petrobras as I suggested based on national security grounds. And also because everybody is nationalizing their oil and gas resources and it is the right thing to do in terms of Brazil.


*****


Lloyds: I have read your article, “The Smartest Thing China Could Do Right Now: Invest US$ 200 Billion in Brazil”. I think that it is breath taking to read your article. Please keep your hands off China.


*****


Ricardo: My plan for the economic development of Brazil is basically the same on the article about China and this current article about Petrobras.

The only difference between these two plans is in the funding area. I was not happy about the need to fund my plan with money from a foreign government in this case China.

I could not come up with a better idea at the time when I wrote the article about China investing US$ 200 billion in Brazil as I suggested on that article.

But late last year and early in 2008 I realized that we had a major funding source right in Brazil – Petrobras - then I wrote this current article.

I am not suggesting that we should renationalize everything in sight in Brazil – I needed a source of funding for my economic development plan and I found one. It is that simple.


*****


Lloyds: With all the respect, if you ask Brazilian government to nationalize PBR, why should China invest in Brazil? You ask China to invest in Brazilian water. After so many years, when water is in high demand, you may ask Brazilian government to nationalize water after oil!


*****


Ricardo: I know China has better investments for their money that is why China is holding US$ 1.5 trillion dollars in a currency that has lost 50 percent of its value against the euro in the last 7 years and the China Sovereign Wealth Fund has lost their shirt in a little over a year on their investment in a major US private equity firm.

With investments like that why should China invest in Brazil?

Since President Lula was elected in October of 2002 the Brazilian currency the real has appreciated by more than 50 percent against the US dollar.

I did not suggest on my article that China invest in Brazilian water. I have no idea why you came up with that conclusion.

I said on my article that all water companies in Brazil should operate as mutual insurance companies operate in the United States – I said that the Brazilian government should forbid the private sector from exploiting the water resources in Brazil.


*****
.
Reply to Tom Lloyds Part 4 of 4
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 01, 2008
Lloyds: You ask China to invest on your dream of nuclear reactor, high speed Internet … etc. Why does not China invest in China? You are only a dreamer.


*****


Ricardo: I understand that you think it is a bad investment for China to lend money to the Brazilian government to build nuclear reactors and high-speed broadband internet in Brazil and you asked me: “Why does not China invest in China?”

China has been investing in China and doing a great job as far as I know.

But don’t forget China has better things to do with their investment money such as lend it to the United States to help finance the war in Iraq. It is hard to find a better investment than that and when you consider that the US government shipped US$ 12 billion dollars in cash to Iraq and no one can account what happened to that cash – all I can say is that China is already making great investments in the United States.

I understand why you are so skeptical about China investing in Brazil in nuclear reactors to produce electricity, in bullet trains in transportation area, in fiber optics high-speed broadband internet, and other infrastructures when China has such a great investments in a fast declining US dollars.


*****


Lloyds: You also ask Brazilian government to adopt the New Asian Currency. You do not even have any understanding of Asia. I would say in 50 years time that Asia would not have that new Asian Currency. Chinese Yuan is not a free float currency.


*****


Ricardo: You should read these 2 articles before you say that I don’t have an understanding of Asia.

“While China Rises the US Falls in Brazil and Latin America”
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Thursday, 02 June 2005
http://www.brazzil.com/2005-ma.../9296.html

12,584 views and 92 comments as of 07/20/08


*****


“Here is Why Brazil Should Adopt the New Asian Currency”
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Friday, 02 March 2007
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9821.html

4,145 views and 43 comments as of 07/20/08


*****


Lloyds: Please keep your hands off China and Brazil as well. China is going to be a capitalist country. Why should China invest in a backward looking country, which you suggest?


*****


Ricardo: Whom do you think you are to tell me to keep my hands off Brazil?

I am very proud of being a Brazilian, and I want what is best for my country.

As you said: China is going to be a capitalist country.

And you implied on your posting that you are an expert in Asia.

In my opinion China has already been a capitalist country for many years.

I don’t expect China to invest in a backward country such as Brazil as you said when China is investing hundreds of billions of US dollars in the United States to finance a war in Iraq. There is no better investment for hundreds of billions of US dollars than invest in a war with no end in sight. Or invest in companies in the United States that lose half of its value in a little over a year. With such great investments like that Brazil can’t compete.


*****


Lloyds: Your PBR nationalization plan just simply keeps any foreign investment off Brazil in the future.


*****


Ricardo: On your dreams.

.
Here are the correct links to the China articles:
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 01, 2008
Here are the correct links to the China articles:

“While China Rises the US Falls in Brazil and Latin America”
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Thursday, 02 June 2005
http://www.brazzil.com/2005-ma.../9296.html

12,647 views and 92 comments as of 07/31/08


*****


“Here is Why Brazil Should Adopt the New Asian Currency”
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral
Friday, 02 March 2007
http://www.brazzil.com/compone.../9821.html

4,200 views and 43 comments as of 07/31/08

.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 01, 2008
Ricardo:

Thank you so much for your reply. I would summarize my reply as followings:

1.PBR now answers to the needs of shareholders. It is for profit. Once it is nationalized, it may only answer to the needs of politicians. I cannot say exactly what will happen. You cannot distinguish the shares hold by the Brazilian government and Brazilian pension plan. They are different shareholders with different needs.

2.That 30% foreign owned shares are so important to PBR. You have written articles inviting China to invest in Brazil. Well, you told me that you did not come out with a better idea of funding source at that time, and you did not really like foreign capital. You should think carefully before you wrote several long articles. You said in your reply that you was not happy with foreign capital to fund your grant plan but you told China that it was smart to invest in Brazil. You thought that Chinese was a fool!

Will China or other foreigners be so stupid to invest in Brazil once they see PBR is nationalized, and their shares are replaced by 30-year bond? When Brazil needs money to build up their oil industry and other infrastructure, Brazil asks for money. However, when things are getting better, Brazil takes away the candy from the investors. Sure, no one will be so stupid again. What happens if China invests in Brazilian nuclear reactors and Brazil nationalizes the nuclear reactors for national security reasons or whatsoever reasons?

3.That 30% foreign owned shares are so important to PBR. If PBR is a nationalized company, the only way to raise capital is to sell bonds. PBR cannot sell any shares anymore. Who will buy those shares again? Do they want their shares to be nationalized again? Thank you. I will not! You can say that PBR can sell the shares to the Brazilian.

I have explained to you if the productivity of PBR and profit falls for whatsoever reasons, PBR may be downgraded to the junk bond status again. At that time, the interest rate will be high and profit will go further down. As the profit goes further down, interest rate will be higher. At that time, only Brazilian taxpayers will pay for the bill. It is quite expensive to develop that oil field.

4.You cannot distinguish the ideas of nationalization of an oil company and nationalization of an oil field. Canada government controls most of the oil field but Canada does not have any nationalized oil company. Well the Canadian is very happy. Learn from their model and it is successful too. I am not telling you to adapt the Canadian model. I am only telling you that it is different to nationalize an oil company from to nationalize an oil field. As I suggest in my reply, the Brazilian government should find a way to cut a profit from the oil as the oil belongs to the Brazilian people. However, the government should keep their hands off as much as possible and keep competition intact. It ensures efficiency.

5.Brazil is not Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE are kingdoms. Their nationalized oil companies answer to the king. If the person in charge in the government is good, the company will be well run. Obviously, their kings have done a very good job. However, Brazil is a democratic country. The nationalized PBR will answer to different politicians. I cannot say that it must be a problem but at least there is a risk. I cannot comment on Norway but so far I know that their government cut a profit from the oil through so sort of production partnership program. I am not quite sure about this.


6.Your plan concentrates only on how to spend the oil money. Anyone can write it. However, you have not analysed the risk of nationalization of PBR. You only reply that you cannot see any risk. Why the productivity of PBR increase so much once it becomes not-100% nationalized company?

7.From your suggestion of the New Asia Currency; I would say that you do not even have any common sense in Asia. I have never seen such a stupid idea.

China has not been a fully capitalist country yet as they still has some large national companies and the state still controls quite a lot of economic development. China is going to be a capitalist country. It shows that you cannot understand what it means by capitalism.

8.Foreigner is not stealing the money from the Brazilian. They invested their money when PBR needed capital.

9.From what you have written, I do not care whether you are a proud Brazilian or not, for the good of the Brazilian and Chinese as well, please keep your hands off Brazil and China as well. Thank you.

Tom
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 01, 2008
Ricardo:

See what happens in your fine example of nationalization in Venezuela. Nationalization scares off investor in Venezuela. Economics expands in low rates.

Well, you can say again. Brazil is not Venezuela.

Tom

--------------------------------------

Chavez Tightens Hold on Venezuela With Bank Takeover (Update4)

By Matthew Walter and Daniel Cancel
Enlarge Image/Details

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is set to tighten his government's grip on the economy by taking over his first bank, the local unit of Spain's Banco Santander SA.

Plans to nationalize the country's third-largest bank, announced yesterday, will give the state access to Banco de Venezuela SA Grupo Universal's 285 offices and $9.46 billion in deposits. It follows nationalizations in the oil, steel, cement, electricity and telecommunications industries.

Chavez is using a surge in oil revenue to increase his control of the economy and move the South American country closer to his goal of ``21st-century socialism,'' even as government takeovers scare off investors. The economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than four years in the first quarter as private investment contracted.

``With this price of oil, the government has the capacity to buy, and it seems they're upsizing to control new sectors of everyday life,'' said Alejandro Grisanti, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York.

Chavez said he will pay fair compensation for Banco de Venezuela, which Santander bought from the government in 1996. He said he has been in touch with the bank's local president, and that he is interested in seeking a ``friendly agreement.''

`Service of Venezuela'

``I want to get it back because it's the bank of Venezuela smilies/cheesy.gif
...
written by Tom Lloyds, August 01, 2008
Ricardo:

I found that you wrote the following in your New Asian Currency Article

"Since December of 1998 I have been advocating and writing many articles saying that Brazil should adopt the euro as its new currency. But the world has been changing at the speed of light since then and everything is evolving very fast today."


Ask yourself. What is the interest rate of Real and Euro today? If Brazil adapted Euro as their currency, Brazil's inflation rate will go off the roof!

Please do not sell your grant economic plan anymore. For the good of Brazilian, please keep your hands off Brazil.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 02, 2008
Ricardo:

Once you mentioned that Norway is successful in your reply. For your information,the Norwegian government-controlled energy company Statoil still lists their shares on stock exchange. You can buy some shares if you like.

Check it out. http://www.statoilhydro.com/en...fault.aspx

I am glad that Norway is an open mind country. They have NOT 100% nationalized their oil company.

Tom
Tom Llyods
written by $$$, August 02, 2008
Very interesting comments you have been writing. You may prove to be prophetic in relation to Venezuela´s effort to re-nationalize their banks, Telecommunications, etc;

I enjoyed reading your comments and thank you.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 02, 2008
Hello $$$,

Thank you for your kind words.

In contrast, Brazil should think how to attract more foreign capital to transform PBR to be the biggest global player in the world selling gasoline and other petroleum products. It creates jobs for Brazil. It requires a lot of capital. If PBR is a 100% national company, then the Brazilian taxpayers will pay for the bill.

I am sure that the Brazilian government is looking for ways to tax the oil. The government should have a good share of the profit. Foreign capital invested in PBR before PBR took off. They took a lot of risk in their money. Their effort and contribution to today's PBR should be respected!

Nationalization of PBR is a short sighted and narrow minded idea.

I do not have any connection with the Brazilian government. I would be grateful if anyone can draw the Brazilian government's attention on my comments. Thanks.

Tom
Reply to Lloyds - Part 1 of 3
written by Riacrdo C. Amaral, August 02, 2008
Lloyds: 1.PBR now answers to the needs of shareholders. It is for profit. Once it is nationalized, it may only answer to the needs of politicians.


*****


Ricardo: Petrobras still be operating in the same way that they operate today. Nothing is going to change in that regard.

The only thing that is happening is that they are eliminating foreign ownership of Petrobras common stock. And I don’t care if they increase the share of the minority owners from 15 percent to 25 percent over a period of time as long as the new owners are Brazilian citizens or pension plans of Brazilian corporations, and pension plans of the states and local pension plans from cities or municipalities.

Following your mindset then the 30 percent of foreigners ownership should start dumping Petrobras stock as soon as possible because the terrible politicians in Brazil are going to destroy that company at any time because the Brazilian government controls 56 percent of the common stock as it is the current case of Petrobras in Brazil then the company is going to collapse and become a basket case just like Venezuela, Nigeria, and Mexico.

Lloyds I have a feeling that you have not grasped as yet that today, Petrobras it is already controlled by the Brazilian government (56 % of the common stock) and it is under the influence of the same politicians that you are so afraid of.


*****


Lloyds: 2.That 30% foreign owned shares are so important to PBR. You have written articles inviting China to invest in Brazil. Well, you told me that you did not come out with a better idea of funding source at that time, and you did not really like foreign capital. You should think carefully before you wrote several long articles. You said in your reply that you was not happy with foreign capital to fund your grant plan but you told China that it was smart to invest in Brazil. You thought that Chinese was a fool!


******


Ricardo: Today the Brazilian government has the money to buy back that 30 percent.

Yes my article was about China investing in Brazil and maybe you missed the part of my article where I give a detailed arrangement of the investment process.

I don’t know why it is so hard for some people to understand a very simple point on my plan, it is about investing in new projects such as nuclear reactors, bullet trains, fiber optics high-speed broadband internet, bridges, ports, airports, and other infrastructure. It is about building things from scratch and helping the Brazilian economy to develop.

Bringing in foreign money to pick the best assets that are already there in Brazil such as Petrobras and Vale do Rio Doce stock - any fool can do that and it does not help the Brazilian economy and the Brazilian people.

Petrobras has been developed with Brazilian tax payers money and that company belongs to the Brazilian people and I know that today everybody wants a piece of the action.

Petrobras will be fine after the Brazilian government takes over the 30 percent owned by foreigners. It is just fiction and nothing more your suggestion that Petrobras would get in trouble and would not be able to develop to its full potential in the future.

Your argument sounds more like a cry-baby that don’t want to let the candy go.

By the way, there is another part of my plan that you have not grasped.

On your prior posting you said the following: “In USA, the defense department would rather let private companies to develop their weapons, not let a government agency to run the main show. Anyone can buy a share in those companies. Why? It is because the private sector is more efficient. They face competition but government agencies do not!”

I don’t know why you did not understand that part of the plan as well. Let me try to make things simpler for you to be able to understand.

The plan has 3 parts:

1) The cash in.

The source of funding in the case of my 2 articles – in the first article the source of funding was the Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund and they would loan the money to a new government agency of the Brazilian government specially created to invest these funds according to the plan.

In the second article the source of funding would be the money provided from Petrobras cash flow and this money would go to the new government agency of the Brazilian government specially created to invest these funds according to the plan.


2) The cash out.

Now the second part of the plan – the spending of the money

It does not matter how the cash got in – from China or from Petrobras – now the money is going to be spent.

Now that new government agency of the Brazilian government specially created to invest these funds according to the plan is going to invest the money.

What they are going to do to invest the money?

First they look around which companies from around the world have the best and state-of-the art in technology regarding the various parts of the plan.

.
Reply to Lloyds - Part 2 of 3
written by Riacrdo C. Amaral, August 02, 2008
For example: the first part of the plan that calls for investing
1) Nuclear power plants - US$ 180 billion

Then they contact the company that has the best and most efficient product in that area around the world – in this case a specific size of nuclear reactor with a certain state of the art technology.

Then the Brazilian government agency gives that company a contract to build and install the nuclear reactors and so on. And these nuclear reactors are built inside the Brazilian territory in specific areas to maximize its use and help generate energy to develop further the Brazilian economy.

Then as this company builds these reactors then the Brazilian agency pays that company according to the contract and the services rendered.

The Brazilian government agency would have a website on the internet to keep the public informed about the progress of each part of the economic development plan.

We would have complete transparency regarding all the projects and the people would be able to bring up on the website anything that is going wrong with any project like costs over-runs and so forth and also including information if people are cutting corners, or receiving bribes on these projects.

When the project is complete and the network of nuclear reactors are working the way they were supposed to work then the Brazilian agency would take the 20 nuclear reactors and the Brazilian government would make a public offering and only Brazilian citizens and Brazilian pension funds would be able to buy the common stock of this new company. (Why only Brazilian would be able to buy the stock of this new company? Because of national security I would not want foreigners controlling the power grid inside Brazil.)

By the way, nothing in the world would stop you or anyone from buying stock of the company that actually builds the 20 nuclear reactors in Brazil.

The same logic applies to most of the other pieces of my economic development plan with the exception of investments in airports, and ports, and the federal government would be the owner of the fiber optics high-speed broadband network around the country.

But service providers would compete with each other to provide the best internet services for the lowest price to customers around the country.



*******


3) The final part of the plan – the payback.

When the Brazilian government agency sells the new IPO of the 20 nuclear power plants and the bullet train system for that matter – the government receives cash and then turns around and pays the money to the 30-year bondholders that Petrobras had given in exchange for the 30 percent of foreign common shareholders.


*********

Lloyds: When Brazil needs money to build up their oil industry and other infrastructure, Brazil asks for money. However, when things are getting better, Brazil takes away the candy from the investors. Sure, no one will be so stupid again.

That 30% foreign owned shares are so important to PBR. If PBR is a nationalized company, the only way to raise capital is to sell bonds.


**********


Ricardo: There will be plenty of capital around the world looking for a good bond return, and Petrobras bonds would be highly desirable since they would be a company with a terrific stream of cash flows for decades to come.


********


Lloyds: As I suggest in my reply, the Brazilian government should find a way to cut a profit from the oil as the oil belongs to the Brazilian people. However, the government should keep their hands off as much as possible and keep competition intact. It ensures efficiency.

Brazil is not Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE are kingdoms. Their nationalized oil companies answer to the king. If the person in charge in the government is good, the company will be well run. Obviously, their kings have done a very good job. However, Brazil is a democratic country. The nationalized PBR will answer to different politicians. I cannot say that it must be a problem but at least there is a risk.


********


Ricardo: As I mentioned before today Petrobras is a company operating in the leading edge of technology of deep sea oil exploration. Petrobras is the foremost expert in the world in that area of oil exploration technology – and that has been accomplished under Brazilian government control of that company since the Brazilian government has controlled at least 55.7 percent of the common shares of that company all along and today Petrobras is one of the greatest oil companies around the world.

I have no idea why you can’t grasp that Petrobras has been under the control of the Brazilian government all along.

After my plan is implemented Petrobras would perform the same way it has been performing for many years – and in the future they are going to perform even better.

.
Reply to Lloyds - Part 3 of 3
written by Riacrdo C. Amaral, August 02, 2008
Lloyds: From your suggestion of the New Asia Currency; I would say that you do not even have any common sense in Asia. I have never seen such a stupid idea.


********


Ricardo: I would not expect that you would understand the concept that I suggested on my article about the New Asian Currency.

I have been writing on that subject for the past ten years and I have a bunch of published articles on that subject and ten years ago I mentioned in one of my articles about the rise of the euro and how the euro would take a market share of the US dollar as a major new reserve currency. What I said 9 years ago is becoming a reality.


*******


Lloyds: China has not been a fully capitalist country yet as they still has some large national companies and the state still controls quite a lot of economic development. China is going to be a capitalist country. It shows that you cannot understand what it means by capitalism.


********


Ricardo: China is in the transition period from its old economy to a new system and in my opinion the managers of the Chinese economy are doing a great job by any standard.

The Chinese government is doing a tremendous job during this transition period and I find it mind boggling that they were able to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in such a short time.


*******


Lloyds: Foreigner is not stealing the money from the Brazilian. They invested their money when PBR needed capital.


*******


Ricardo: I did not say that foreigners were stealing the money from the Brazilians.

You seem to be a novice in the capitalist world, but in that world assets changes hands all the time. Companies take over other companies on a regular basis on a friendly basis or as a hostile takeover.

In this case you can look at this as a hostile takeover by the Brazilian government of the 30 percent of common shares held by foreign shareholders.

It is no different than any other type of hostile takeovers that goes on the stock market all the time.


********

Lloyds: See what happens in your fine example of nationalization in Venezuela. Nationalization scares off investor in Venezuela. Economics expands in low rates.

Well, you can say again. Brazil is not Venezuela.


********


Ricardo: I can see by your comments that you have not even grasped the basic difference between the Brazilian economy and the Venezuelan economy.

If you are not able to grasp that Venezuela’s economy is almost completely dependent in one commodity – oil – and that the Brazilian economy is a very diversified economy then you will continue going back to the same old argument.

I can’t give a lesson in economics to you and explain to you the implications of the foundations of these two economies. I don’t have the time to explain to you the difference in the entire economic structure between the Brazilian economy and the Venezuelan economy.

You are comparing apples and oranges here.


*******


Lloyds: I found that you wrote the following in your New Asian Currency Article

"Since December of 1998 I have been advocating and writing many articles saying that Brazil should adopt the euro as its new currency. But the world has been changing at the speed of light since then and everything is evolving very fast today."


Ask yourself. What is the interest rate of Real and Euro today? If Brazil adapted Euro as their currency, Brazil's inflation rate will go off the roof!

Please do not sell your grant economic plan anymore. For the good of Brazilian, please keep your hands off Brazil.


********


Ricardo: Yes I had been advocating since 1998 that Brazil should adopt the euro and I wrote about 10 articles on that subject over the years.

But about 3 years ago I changed my mind, and I realized that the future of Brazil is close related to Asia, mainly China. And I started advocating that Brazil should adopt the New Asian Currency.

I am advocating that because I understand what has happened to the economies of the individual countries that have adopted the euro – and there are major implications here.

You show your great ignorance once more.

If Brazil had adopted the euro about ten years ago then in the last ten years the interest rate paid would be close to the interest rate of the countries that belongs to the euro system instead of paying 3 or 4 times higher rates of interest inside Brazil.

Another point away above your grasp with a strong currency such as the euro and interest rates very low the Brazilian economy would have exploded out of sight – the real estate mortgage system would be 10 years ahead of schedule, credit card debt would be more developed, Brazilian businesses would have been able to borrow money for expansions, and the Brazilian economy would have been growing by at least 10 percent per year creating great economic activity, jobs, and prosperity.

But all that is away above your head for you to be able to understand what I am talking about.

.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 02, 2008
Ricardo:

1.You still keep saying that 55% of PBR is controlled by Brazilian government. You fail to distinguish the difference between Brazilian government and Brazilian pension fund. At least Brazilian pension fund is for profit, as they are required to pay pension. Brazilian government is not a for profit organization.
2.Very lucky, no one listened to your grant plan to adapt Euro as the Brazilian currency otherwise the inflation in Brazil would go off the roof. Even if Brazil wish to join Euro, will European countries allow Brazil to join? Brazil is not part of Europe. Even some Eastern European countries wish to join Euro, they are required to meet the tough standards.

It shows two important facts. First, you cannot understand economics. Second, you cannot foresee long as you change your mind now. It was why I said that your plan would bring economic disaster to Brazil. Your grant Euro plan has demonstrated my point!
3.Your idea of New Asian Currency and Brazil should be part of it is really a joke. I cannot foresee that Asia can form any Asian Currency in 50 years, not even mentioning inviting Brazil to join, which is not in Asia. Just several months ago, Taiwan was nearly at the edge of war with Japan because of the conflicts about the ownership of a small island. Both sides send out their warships. China also claims the ownership. It all shows that you do not have any common sense in Asia, but you have written long article selling your great idea!
4.You still cannot explain why the productivity of PBR increases so much after not-100% nationalized.
5.You keep assuming everything will be OK and the bond from PBR will be welcome. You keep failing analyzing the risk involved and huge capital required to develop the oil field.
6.PBR invited two foreign companies to join the projects, HES and BG. Why? It is important to share the risk and capital. Why didn’t you suggest to tick HES and BG out too. PBR controls approx only 50% of those holes drilled in the ocean. It will be nice to have a 100% Brazilian nationalized controlled oil hole. If so, I am sure that no one will come to invest in Brazil.
7. You still keep saying PBR has the best technology in the field. I cannot comment on it. However, bad management can turn a company with good technology upside down.
8.You mentioned that Brazilian government pays back the 30-year bond using the revenue from your high-speed bullet train. Have you ever thought the risk of high-speed train. In Taiwan, their high-speed train system is still loosing a s**t. Why? Every politicians wish to have a train station in their county. In China, one day, a Megav train broke down. Only until that day, Siemens and China discovered an important fact. There was no wheel between the train and the rail. How could they move the broken train without a wheel and without the required magnetic field? A headache! Luckily, China has huge People Liberation Army and they could help moving the train. Your 30-year bond plan has demonstrated that you failed to analyze risk.
9.Thank you for your answers on Venezuela. As I have said you could say that Brazil was not Venezuela. It really happened. You have answered as I predicted. Would you explain why the state-owned Norwegian oil company still trades their shares on the stock exchange? Foreigners can buy a share. To help you answering this question. You can say that Brazil is not Norway.
10. You have said that your plan failed to analyze the risk of developing that oil field which is 5000m below sea level. Your reply failed to provide any.
11.You said,” I would not want foreigners controlling the power grid inside Brazil.” Do you know that a Canadian Asset Management company has invested tons of their money in the power grid inside Brazil? Are you telling the whole world that you will nationalize the power grid later? Today, no one will like to invest in a country, which will nationalize this and nationalize that. This Canadian company has helped the Brazilian enjoying electric power long before your grant plan even starts! In short, this company has helped Brazil developing its economy.
12.As you do not like foreign capital do much, why did you write those long articles telling the Chinese that it was smart to invest in Brazil? Whether Chinese lost a s**t with the USA was none of your business. You treated the Chinese as a fool! After they have invested in your nuclear reactors, high speed Internet, power grid, and …. etc., you take away their candy and nationalize the infrastructure.
13.For the sake of Brazil, Europe, Canada, and China, please keeps your hands off. Thank you!
Tom Llyods
written by $$$, August 03, 2008
Thanks for your reply, Tom and appreciate your quick reply.

I do not have any connection with the Brazilian government.


I used to have, but the current one does not want any sane advice from anyone! Thats the sad truth.

Slightly off topic: In your opinion, what were the reasons for the U.S., China, India and Argentina joining hands to scuttle the latest round of Doha talks? I heard that our President will be in Argentina this week end to mend fences with Argentina, then to China and probably to India to convince the leaders of the respective countries to re- initiate the talks after the elections in the U.S.
Reply to Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 03, 2008


Ricardo: I keep answering your questions and I can’t get through your thick head.


*****


Lloyds: You still keep saying that 55% of PBR is controlled by Brazilian government. You fail to distinguish the difference between Brazilian government and Brazilian pension fund. At least Brazilian pension fund is for profit, as they are required to pay pension. Brazilian government is not a for profit organization.


******


Ricardo: For the last time I am going to mention this for you, if you can’t understand that then you must be retarded.

Ownership of Common Stock of Petrobras

Brazilian Federal government = 55.7 percent

All kinds of Pension Funds = 14.3 percent

Common Stock held by Foreigners = 30 percent

Total = 100 percent

For gods sake which part of this breakdown you can’t understand and need further information?

If you add the pieces: 55.7 14.3 30 = 100 percent

The Brazilian government portion of the shares equal to 55.7 percent is the portion that is controlled by that fellow that people in Brazil calls Lula and he is the current president of Brazil. This is the piece of Petrobras that is under the influence of the Brazilian Congress which is made of politicians such as senators and dep**ado federais.

I am not sure that you are able to follow this very complex information, anyway….

Then there is the common shares that are controlled by pension plans. The pension plans control 14. 3 percent of Petrobras common stock.

A pension plan is an organization that receives money and invest that money and when the people retire they pay a monthly pension to that person.

The pension plans are allowed to invest in stocks, bonds and so forth and many pension funds took some of the money that they had available for investment and they bought common shares of Petrobras stock – in total the pension plans bought 14.3 percent of the outstanding common shares of Petrobras.

Let explain a little further since you are not the smartest person around.

I lumped everything together into a 14.3 percent number as being all pension money – a large part of this investments are pension money, but there is also included on the 14.3 percent common shares traded by private investors for their personal accounts.

The point here is that there is 14.3 percent of Petrobras common stock that is being traded on the exchange by pension funds and other Brazilians for their personal accounts.

Now there is a third group of shareholders – the foreign shareholders – that control 30 percent of the common stock of Petrobras. This group of foreigners are made up mostly by Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, Private Equity firms, major Banks, some private investors and so forth….


Note: When any group has more than 50 percent of the common stock of a corporation that group controls that corporation.

You might ask me why?

Because the 55.7 percent of common stock of Petrobras controlled by the Brazilian government is a larger percentage than the 14.3 percent controlled by the Brazilian pension plans, and also larger than the combined 30 percent of common stock controlled by foreign investors.

By the way, the 55.7 percent of common stock owned by the Brazilian government it is also larger than the combined shares of the Brazilian pension plans and the foreign shareholders – and you can try adding the figures 14.3 30 = 44. 3 percent.

It does not matter how you look at the Brazilian government always has more common shares than the other groups combined – and the 55.7 percent common shares gives the Brazilian government control of that corporation.

The Brazilian government always has had control of Petrobras common stock during the period when Petrobras went from an ordinary petroleum company to the powerhouse that Petrobras became today. Petrobras became one of the best Petroleum companies around the world under the complete control of the Brazilian government and the Brazilian politicians.

When the Brazilian government gets the control back to the 30 percent of common shares held by foreigners today – the control of common stock by the Brazilian government would increase from 55.7 percent to 85.7 percent.

And the company will function in the same way that it functions today.

I would not mind if the Brazilian government reduces its common shares holdings from 85.7 percent to 70 percent and sell the difference of common shares to Brazilian pension funds and to the Brazilian population.

.
Reply to Lloyds – Part 1 of 3
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 03, 2008
Lloyds: Very lucky, no one listened to your grant plan to adapt Euro as the Brazilian currency otherwise the inflation in Brazil would go off the roof. Even if Brazil wish to join Euro, will European countries allow Brazil to join? Brazil is not part of Europe. Even some Eastern European countries wish to join Euro, they are required to meet the tough standards.

It shows two important facts. First, you cannot understand economics. Second, you cannot foresee long as you change your mind now. It was why I said that your plan would bring economic disaster to Brazil. Your grant Euro plan has demonstrated my point!


******


Ricardo: It is not worth wasting time to discuss with you about the euro and now the new Asian currency because based on your comments it shows that you don’t have a clue about that subject.


*******


Lloyds: I cannot foresee that Asia can form any Asian Currency in 50 years, not even mentioning inviting Brazil to join, which is not in Asia. Just several months ago, Taiwan was nearly at the edge of war with Japan because of the conflicts about the ownership of a small island. Both sides send out their warships. China also claims the ownership. It all shows that you do not have any common sense in Asia, but you have written long article selling your great idea!


*********


Ricardo: Your statements shows that you are clueless about what is happening around the world regarding this subject, and what is in store for the coming years.

Your comments are silly and show that you don’t have a clue about how the world is changing as never before and the new world that is around the corner.

Your thinking is frozen on the past and you are clueless about the future.


*******


Lloyds: You still keep saying PBR has the best technology in the field. I cannot comment on it. However, bad management can turn a company with good technology upside down.


*******


Ricardo: I have no idea why you can’t grasp that Petrobras has been controlled by the Brazilian government all along.

What you can’t grasp to save your life is that if Brazil elects a new president in 2010, and the new president decides to play around with Petrobras management – it does not make a difference in hell if the 30 percent of the common stock that we are talking about is held by foreign investors or by the Brazilian government.

There is no guarantee that the people running the Brazilian government is going to do a good job in the future.

And the fact that today 30 percent of Petrobras common stock is held by foreigners it means nothing if a bad government gets in power in Brazil and if they decide to screw around with Petrobras.

The 30 percent of common shareholders add nothing to the future performance of Petrobras. It does not make any difference if the Brazilian government or foreign stockholders are the owners of that 30 percent share of Petrobras stock.

At the end of the day there is no guarantee of Petrobras future performance that is set in stone and any company can be great today and bad tomorrow based on their current management.

In reality there is no basis to support a position that Petrobras will have a better performance in future years if foreigners are allowed to keep their 30 percent share of common stock of Petrobras than if the Brazilian government were the owners of that 30 percent.


******


Lloyds: You mentioned that Brazilian government pays back the 30-year bond using the revenue from your high-speed bullet train.


*******


Ricardo: They have a number of successful bullet train systems operating in Europe.

You are so narrow headed and you can see the big picture of the projects.

I have to explain everything to you and even then I can’t get through your think head.

The bullet train system would help develop an immense amount of tourism in Brazil – an area that Brazil has a tremendous potential for the future.

Even if the Brazilian government can’t manage to make a profit running the bullet train system, but the economic development that would result from this investment would pay many dividends to the Brazilian economy.

I can’t go into the detail of all the implications related to this massive increase in tourism inside of the Brazilian economy.


*******


Lloyds: Thank you for your answers on Venezuela. As I have said you could say that Brazil was not Venezuela. It really happened. You have answered as I predicted.


********

Ricardo: What is your point?

You predict nothing. As usual you have not grasped the point.

In a nutshell: Venezuela is a “one trick poney” and the Brazilian economy is a very sophisticated and highly developed economy.

I know you don’t have a clue about what that means, but that is your problem and not mine.

.
Reply to Lloyds – Part 2 of 3
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 03, 2008
Lloyds: As you do not like foreign capital do much, why did you write those long articles telling the Chinese that it was smart to invest in Brazil? Whether Chinese lost a s**t with the USA was none of your business. You treated the Chinese as a fool! After they have invested in your nuclear reactors, high speed Internet, power grid, and …. etc., you take away their candy and nationalize the infrastructure.


*******


Ricardo: If the private sector were doing such a great job in Brazil then why we have power shortages in Brazil? Why the private sector is not meeting the demand for power inside Brazil.

By the way, the private sector is doing a terrible job in the United States as well.

If you took the time to read my article you certainly did not understand what you were reading or you are borderline retarded.

My article about China investing in Brazil is very clear that I am suggesting that the $ 200 billion dollars were supposed to be lent directly to the Brazilian government, and the Brazilian government would create an agency to manage that money according to my economic development plan.

It was supposed to be a loan from a government to another government and all the Chinese government would have it would be a loan outstanding with the Brazilian government.

After the Brazilian government invested that money in nuclear power, in bullet trains, in infrastructure, in high speed broadband technology – there is NO CANDY to be taken away from the Chinese government as you said.

You can’t get on your tick head that all the Chinese government had was a long term investment earning a certain rate of return from the Brazilian government.

I never suggest that Chinese should start buying all kinds of companies in Brazil such as common shares of Petrobras, or Vale do Rio Doce or the best jewels that we have in Brazil.

If the Chinese invest in common stock of Petrobras, and Vale do Rio Doce that does nothing to help the Brazilian economy to grow and develop in the future.

Besides the Chinese is more interested in financing the Iraq war for the United States at the tune of hundreds of billions of US dollars.

The Chinese government is also interested in investing in assets in declining US dollars.

Which translates into the biggest default of any country in world history.

But if the Chinese prefers to lend trillions of US dollars for the US government to fight a war in Iraq and other adventures around the world that is the prerogative of the Chinese government.

You also said: “You treated the Chinese as a fool”

With all my respect to the Chinese they don’t need me to say a word about that their actions speak for itself. Who on his right mind would continue investing hundreds of billion of US dollars in a venture that is losing a ton of money.

Only fools throw good money after bad money.

China has accumulated already $ 1.5 trillion in US dollar foreign exchange reserves, and in the coming years China will increase that investment to US$ 3 trillion dollars. This is a currency that lost half of its value against the euro in the last 6 years, and lost more than 60 percent of its value against the Brazilian real in the last 5 years, and so on….

You can read about what is going on on this website:

The US dollar and the biggest default in history

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...did=121313


.
Reply to Lloyds – Part 3 of 3
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 03, 2008
On July 24, 2008 I posted the following on the number one forum in Wall Street where the people from Wall Street discuss what is going on in the US stock market.

”The bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also can be seen as a bailout to keep foreign investors interested in investing in the United States at least for a little longer.

It is not only the US dollar that has been melting in the last 6 years – for example the US dollar lost half of its value against the euro during that period – but lately other foreign investments also are disappearing as its value melts down to nothing – such as Fannie and Freddie.

Last Friday I noticed the column on the Financial Times about “Too Chinese to Fail” – according to the article the poor mainland Chinese investors are stuck with over $376bn of the agency long-term debt as of June 2007 and that represents less than 1/3 of the amount invested by foreign investors on this latest fiasco.

That means that the poor bastards (foreigners) are stuck with more than US$ 1.3 trillion dollars of Fannie and Freddie long-term debt as of June 2007.

Talking about being taken for a ride.

Now the US government had to intervene to keep these institutions from going bankrupt and going out of business and wiping out these foreign investors.

These days the Chinese government must be reevaluating alternative investments around the world since they have realized that they have been investing in a real money pit.

The Chinese must be stunned by the massive losses that their investments in US dollar has generated over the years – it is like investing in the Titanic then watch the big ship sink slowly.”


*****


As the Financial Times (UK) mentioned on that article the Chinese had invested almost US$ 400 billion in Fannie and Freddie and since that time their investment lost most of its market value.

Here is another great investment by the Chinese.

On June 22, 2008 The New York Times published an article by Stephen Schwarzman the Chairman and Chief Executive of The Blackstone Group wants the cash flow to keep coming from the SWF's despite the investment record in Blackstone stock of the Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund

On that same day I posted the following on the Wall Street Forum were they discuss all things related to Wall Street.

“A SWF can be used for various purposes including using the money to undermine the financial system and industrial base of its competitors.

In the case of China things it has not work so well so far – but China has accumulated so far about $ 1.4 trillion US dollars (Confetti), and very soon they will be holding about $ 2 trillion US dollars worth of confetti.

Here is what happened to China’s $3 billion US dollars investment in Blackstone on June 25, 2007 when that company went public at $ 35 per share – since then the investment it has not done very well since that stock has been trading around $ 18 per share exactly one year later.

China’s original investment at the time of The Blackstone Group IPO on June 25, 2007:

85,714,000 shares @ $ 35 per share = US$ 3,000,000,000 ($ 3 billion US dollars)

China’s current value of the investment as of June 20, 2008:

85,714,000 shares @ $ 18 per share = US$ 1,542,852,000

With performance like that no wonder Stephen Schwarzman the Chairman and Chief Executive of The Blackstone Group wants the cash flow to keep coming from the SWF's.

I don’t know how his company managed to lose 50 percent of the Chinese money in the last year, but I am sure that in the meantime he managed to get a fat bonus based in all kinds of fees for himself and his associates.”


******


As you can see Lloyds the Chinese don’t need any help from to look like a bunch of fools regarding their US dollar investments – the Chinese are doing a great job in that area and their track record speaks for itself.

The Chinese US dollar investment record is not just a little foolish, but FOOLISH to the zillion degree.

I understand the Chinese would not consider investing in Brazil to help finance a real economic development plan such as the one that I proposed which would be beneficial for both countries on the long run.

Why?

Because the Chinese are too busy investing in the Titanic and they have not realized that the water level already has reached the second floor of the ship, and the ship is sinking very fast.

Maybe if the Chinese throw some more good money at the sinking Titanic that would slowdown the final act.

.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 04, 2008
Ricardo:

I think that I have made my point clear enough and do not need to further illustrate. I would like to write down my plan here. I wish everyone to have a look and compare it with your.

If I were the president of Brazil, I would do the followings:

1.I would not use my funding to buy the 30% foreign share of PBR. The oil field requires a lot to capital to develop. PBR starts to borrow. If I buy that 30% extract shares, it will increase my debt. I do not like to do so.
2.It is well known that in the coming years, Brazil needs a lot of petroleum, ship building, and mechanical engineers as well as technicians. I would put my available funding to fund the education in these key areas first. Without qualified people, we cannot pump the oil out of the ocean. It is the most important. Ricardo’s plan told me to spend my funding on nuclear reactor, high speed Internet and high-speed train. He did not tell me to put money on the education on these key areas. If I followed him, then I could not get the money out of the oil as there would not be enough qualified people. I would be broke.
3.The Canadian has already built the power grid for us. Even the communist China continues to sell the shares of their power plants, railways, highways, and Telephone companies in the Hong Kong stock exchange. If I did not invite foreigner to fund the investment on infrastructure, everyone would think that I was a fool. I could not use the world “nationalization” anymore as even the communists in China did not use it anymore nowadays because it would scare off investor. Therefore, I would continue to invite more foreign capital to help us to develop Brazil. With the new oil field, I was sure that more investment would come.
4.I would encourage PBR to continue use its good name to attract the required capital. It does not matter whether it comes from Brazil or from foreigners. Money is money. RIO has already sold additional share in the international market to fund their expansion. PBR should use the capital to strengthen itself and to acquire the necessary asset such that PBR can be developed to be the biggest petroleum products manufacturer. By doing so, it will create a lot of new jobs for the Brazilian. Then I will get more income tax.
5.I would tax the oil coming out from the oil field in Brazil, as it is the oil of Brazilian.
6.I would keep the competition intact. PBR is not the only company qualified to drill in Brazil. PBR must compete with other oil companies such that the oil can be pumped out in the timely fashion. It will ensure my tax revenue income.
7.As the foreigner has already invested in Brazilian infrastructure, I would use the oil money and increase in income tax to invest in the following areas, which the foreigner would not invest. They are education, health care, scientific research and technology development and social welfare. These are the most important areas, which will drive Brazil into the 21st century.
8.In the area of education, I would strengthen our education system from the top to the bottom. I would use my funding to improve our school equipment. I would provide higher salary for the teachers such that the schools can attract some of the best Brazilian to be the teacher. I would provide scholarship to our bright kids who could not afford their education. For the universities, I would provide more research funding to our best professors. I would endorse some important chairs to attract the best scholars in the world to teach in our best universities. I would provide good fellowship to the best young researcher to come to Brazil. Since English is now the international language, I would use my funding to hire the best native speaking teachers to come to Brazil to educate our young generation.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 04, 2008
Pt 2:

9.In the area of scientific and technology research, I would provide excellent funding to our key research institutes. I would like to see our research institutes become world-class institutes. I would target some important key areas such as petroleum engineering, material science, and agriculture technology. I would identify some secondary key areas with my science advisors. Now, everything seems possible with the new oil money.
10.I would set up some seed venture capital to fund some start-up on new technology which might be the fruit coming out from the research institutes in Brazil. It will provide more jobs to our Brazilian. It is so important that I should use the oil money to develop Brazil out of the commodity economics. High technology should be the best solution in the long run. If I did not do so, everyone would think that I would be a fool. I hope that in one day, the label of “Made in Brazil” means excellence.
11.I would provide good funding to improve our health system. Without health, anything is impossible.
12.I would provide good welfare to our Brazilian to help them out of poverty.
13.As the time goes on, our society becomes more internationalized. Our citizen can speak very good English and our society is an open society. Our commodity economics is blooming and our high technology companies are one of the best in the world. Almost every bright young scholars wish to come to Brazil to do their research. At that time, I should push Brazil as the financial center in the Latin America.
14.By doing so, I did not need to worry to pay back the 30-year bond to the shareholder of PBR. I did not need to run our nuclear reactor, high-speed Internet and high-speed train. I had already had enough to do. The foreign investors had helped us to build the nuclear reactor, high-speed train and high-speed Internet. Thank you so much. I was almost debt free! However, our PBR and high technology companies are one of the best in the world. Almost every Brazilian has jobs! They enjoy good health care and good education system. Now, they start to learn how to earn money from trading stocks, as Brazil is now the financial center in the Latin America. This society would be at least 20 to 30 years advanced than the society proposed by Ricardo. The important was that I would be debt free!

I leave my suggestions to every Brazilian. They are smart people and they know their best choice. As I said before, I had Brazilian friends, and I wished Brazil best.

Tom
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 04, 2008
Hello $$$,

I am sorry that I cannot answer your questions.

I have posted some of my suggestions here and hope every Brazilian to think about it. I hope that I can contribute something.

All the best

Tom
Petrobras and Global Labor Shortage
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 04, 2008
On my article I mentioned the shortage of available engineers, and other qualified people around the world to work on the projects of global oil companies.

This shortage is the result of things that happened 15 to 20 years ago when the barrel of oil was trading around US$ 10. For a few years the price of oil was very low and oil companies laid off many people and a new generation was discouraged from going into that line of business – it takes 10 years to develop a new generation specialized work force to replace the ones that are living the business.

Because of what happened at that time today it is missing a generation of workers in that industry. To make things even worse today about 25 percent of specialized people in that industry (engineers and so on) are going to retire in the next 4 to 5 years.

The specialized labor in that industry it will just become worse before it turn around – and that is a global problem in that industry.

The Financial Times just published the enclosed article.


*****


“Petrobras to focus resources on Brazil field”
By Stephen Fidler in London
Published: August 4, 2008
Financial Times - UK

Petrobras is to reduce exploratory activities abroad in order to concentrate on exploiting a potentially huge Brazilian offshore oilfield, according to the company's president and chief executive.

José Sergio Gabrielli said the move would slow the pace of its operations in some of the 26 other countries in which it operates.

However, he said there had been no decision to pull out from any of them and he did not identify in which locations activities would be slowed.

"We are going to bring back some of our teams to work in Brazil," he said in an interview in London with the Financial Times.

The company's foreign operations are mainly in the Americas but it also has operations in Iran, Asia and Africa, including Angola and Nigeria.

Petrobras is repatriating its engineers and other personnel to avoid a shortage of skills as it seeks to exploit the Santos basin, which holds a field where the company has discovered the biggest oil deposit to have been found in the western hemisphere in three decades.

The Tupi field is estimated to hold between 5bn and 8bn barrels of recoverable oil, which will start pilot production at 30,000 barrels per day in March 2009, with a further 100,000 bpd coming online in 2010.

Petrobras officials have been quoted as saying output could reach 1m bpd.
But it is only one of eight Petrobras fields in the basin. The Santos basin is twice as large as the Campos offshore basin that currently accounts for 1.6m bpd, more than 85 per cent of Petrobras's production.

However, it will provide logistical challenges for a company well-known for its expertise in deep offshore drilling.

The Santos deposits, under a layer of salt, are deeper at 2,100 metres than the Campos deposits and also further offshore - 300km versus 150km for Campos.

Mr Gabrielli said Petrobras ferries 40,000 passengers a month by helicopter to its Campos installations, and there may be difficulties in transporting similar numbers over the greater distances to Santos.

This may require fewer offshore staff and different techniques.

For example, in the Campos basin, Petrobras has extracted oil using floating production storage and offloading vessels known as FSPOs. In Santos, the company may also use so-called tension leg well platform (TLWP) technology.

In a presentation to investors in London, Mr Gabrielli said the company was targeting production of 1.95m bpd next year, rising to 2.42m in 2012 and 2.81m in 2015.

Source:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e70b...07658.html

.
Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 04, 2008
I assume that you must have some money invested on Petrobras and you are fighting like hell to keep your investment.

I don’t know in which country you live, and if you are Chinese from Mainland China or just a member of the Chinese expatriates who are scattered around the world.

I have the feeling that you were playing games with your questions and I decided to go along.

But at the end of the day the reality is 93 percent of global oil reserves are under government control and only 7 percent is under the private sector.

Today the Brazilian government has the cash for a hostile takeover of the 30 percent of Petrobras common stock being held by foreigners.

But the idea of turning that 30 percent of common stock into 30-year bonds it is also a possibility depending on studying the estimated stream of cash that will be provided by Petrobras in the coming years and the payment of interest on these bonds on an annual basis and how that would interfere with the rest of the plan.

As I mentioned on my plan the Petrobras cash flow would fund my economic development plan as I described and the regular annual budget of the Brazilian government will invest in many of the programs that you mentioned on your plan.

You seem to think that the private sector is going to solve all the problems and make all the investment necessary to keep the economy innovating and growing in the future.
On your mindset the free market would make the investments in the right areas and at the right time to keep a prosperous economy growing.

I have news for you in reality a free market economy it does not work that way just look at the US economy today the US economy is a basket case – everything that one can imagine is going wrong here in the US including a crumbling infrastructure, a health care system that is in shambles, and deregulation has devastated a number of industries in the United States such as the airline industry, the power grid system of the US, and also deregulation on the financial area – the place is in complete chaos today.

For some reason you fail to understand that Petrobras turned itself into one of the best oil companies in the world under the control of the Brazilian government and the political system in Brazil. Petrobras has always been under the control of the Brazilian government, but for some reason you think that because foreigners control 30 percent of the common stock then by some magic the Brazilian government losses control of that company.

The trend around the world is for countries to nationalize the oil industry and turn the information about oil reserves into state secret.

There is no guarantee that we will not have a bad government in Brazil in the future that would be as bad and incompetent as the current government in the United States. Look what has happened to the United States economy since president Clinton left town.

The Clinton administration left behind an economy in good shape with declining deficits, and a very sound economy and a country with high prestige around the world. Now 8 years later the Bush administration is leaving behind a completely wrecked country and the United States has lost all the prestige that once had around the world.

There is no guarantee that in the future we also can end up in Brazil with a bunch of incompetent people destroying the Brazilian economy just like the Bush administration destroyed the US economy from 2001 to 2008.

I have no doubt in my mind that the Brazilian economy will have a spectacular performance in the coming decades – and we just need to complete the foundations for everything else to fall into place and the Brazilian economy would be engulfed in prosperity for a long time.

.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 04, 2008
Ricardo C. Amaral:

With all the respect to you, the quality of this article is the same as the quality of your articles of Euro, New Asia Currency and Chinese investment. They are just simply pieces of junk.

Would you please let some others to compare our plans?

I would like to tell you again. For the sake of Brazil, China, Europe and Canada, please keep your hands off. Nationalism can satisfy the pride of some pound Brazilian like you but it cannot fill the stomach of common citizen.

To be completely honest with you, it was a shock to me that someone carried a title of economist and wrote several articles telling Brazil to join Euro and New Asian Currencies. Someone like you who did not like foreign capital and wrote long articles telling the Chinese to invest in your country. What kind of person are you?

I trust the Brazilian can tell the difference between my plan and your plan. They are smart people.

Tom
Reply to Tom Lloyds.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 04, 2008
Ricardo: For someone who so out of touch with the realities of the international monetary system I would not expect someone like you to grasp the articles that I have been writing about the euro for the last ten years.

When I wrote in November 2001 that the US dollar was going to decline against the euro in the coming years and the euro would become a reserve currency that would compete against the US dollar – Pathetic people like yourself posted information saying that I had no idea about what I was talking about and that my article was junk like you said.

I also said at the time that the price of gold trading at US$ 195 per oz at the time was going to increase in value in dollar terms in the coming years and people like you also said that I had no idea what I was talking about.

By the way, years ago I wrote that the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro would reach the US$ 1.6 to euro $ 1 and that prediction came to past, but when I published my forecast years ago clueless people such as yourself also told me that I was smoking dope when I made such a forecast.

I have an established track record of forecasting things before they happen – and me record has shut up all the people such as yourself who can’t recognize even the things that are in front your nose.

You made comment such as Brazil is not in Asia implying that a country has to be next to each other for them to adopt the same currency.

You implied that Brazil is not in Europe and that makes it impossible for Brazil to be member of the euro club. I have news for you since the inception of the euro we already have a country in South America that the currency of that country is the euro.

Ecuador and El Salvador have adopted the US dollar as their own currency

You don’t have a clue how beneficial the creation of the euro was for many economies that are part of the euro today.

If Brazil had adopted the euro when I suggested then today the Brazilian GDP probably would be twice as large than actually is under the real.

I go further if Brazil had adopted the euro that would had forced Argentina in that path and would have prevented the meltdown in the Argentinean economy that happened a few years ago.

You are completely clueless about the power of hot money that flies around the world creating havoc in many countries with their pursuit of making a quick buck and nothing else.

If Europeans had the mindset that you have they would not have created the euro and they still would be fighting wars from long ago.

The French and German intellect it is obviously superior to yours since they were able to overcome hundreds of years of wars and hate and were able to use their brain and become part of a single currency – the euro.

You should go and continue fighting your medieval disputes on your mind as the real world moves forward into the new world of the 21st Century.

Your opinions show how shortsighted you are about the future and how your brain is frozen in the past.

And the worst part is that you don’t have a clue about how the world is changing at the speed of light and your intellect works like a turtle or maybe you just can’t grasp what is happening around you.

You said: “Would you please let some others to compare our plans”

There is nothing to be compared here since your plan is just a complement to my plan and what you are suggesting would be part of the regular annual Brazilian government budget. It is that simple and I have articulated that point in the discussions.

I have no idea why you keep including Canada on your postings I have said nothing about Canada.

What Canada has to do we the enclosed article and following comments?

As you said: “Someone like you who did not like foreign capital”

Who told you that I am against foreign capital?

Here again you are trying to generalize a subject without taking in consideration national security and the welfare of the country in question.

I am against foreign money being invested in certain industries, but I am not against them investing in other areas of the economy.

It would be stupid to let foreign investment to control the major communication companies in Brazil. It would be stupid to let foreign money to control the banking and insurance system in Brazil. It would be stupid for the Brazilian government to let foreigners to control the oil industry and energy in Brazil.

Look at the history of foreign investment in the United States in the 1980’s the Japanese bought Rockfeller Center, and golf clubs and other overpriced investments in the stock market. And in the last few years the Chinese have been investing a ton of money in a declining currency (the US dollar), and in melting investments such as Fannie and Freddie.

I know the Brazilians are smart people and that is why they are going to take a real hard look into my plan and after evaluating it they are going to implement the plan as I suggested on this economic development plan.

.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 05, 2008
Ricardo:

Wake up! None of your previous plans have been implemented as it was realistic. Brazil has not joined Euro and the interest rate in Brazil is more than 13% and that for Euro is only 4%. The results tell the quality of your ideas---junks!

No New Asia Currency exists nowadays. The only way to make your dream come true is to change the name of Brazil's currency, Real to be the New Asia Currency. It will work! But please do not ask China to join!

China did not listen to you. If a person or government always use the word nationalization, and that government asks someone to invest in their country. Thank God. Everyone will run away.

Now you are selling another plan to fund your dream of nuclear reactor. You have told us no risk. However, you have not even mentioned to increase the budget to train more engineers to pump oil out of the ocean, No people. No oil.

My plan is by no means a complement of your. I hope Brazilian will not feel offensive. Brazilian universities and research institutes cannot be regarded as the top in the world. My plan is to strengthen it. I have not many things having a label of Made in Brazil in my home. My plan is to develop an industry base for Brazil. Brazil is not a major financial center in the world. My plan is to develop Brazil as the major financial center in the world.

With your plan, one day, some poor Brazilian will find that someone is building a nuclear reactor in the backyard at the request of some politicians.

Con graduation to your predication of Euro exchange rate. However, I am not impressed at all.

Tom
Tom Llyods
written by $$$, August 05, 2008
My plan is to develop an industry base for Brazil.


No Tom, your plan is NOT to build an Industrial base for Brazil. Your plan is to import raw materials from us and resell manufactured goods to us. After all, your labor cost is very low compared to ours and why should you bother to build an "Industrial base" in Brazil?

You have very good points in some aspects, but in spite of your earlier statement that the Brazilians are smart people, you really think that our educated middle class is very dumb and unable to see through your game.Fortunately, you have a totalitarian system of government that is half dedicated to your people and ours is not.

A nice try, Tom. Must congratulate you for your supposed shrewdness. Just remember that both can play this sort of games. The winner takes it all, my friend. smilies/grin.gif
Reply to Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 05, 2008
Lloyds: I have not many things having a label of Made in Brazil in my home.


*****

Ricardo: I live here in the United States and I don’t have anything having the label Made in USA – even my car was made in Sweden since I drive a Volvo. The TV and sound system is made in Japan, most of my clothing came from some other country. Most of the stuff I buy on the supermarket came from somewhere around the world.

What is your point in that regard?

You are saying that the USA is a 3rd world country?


*****

Lloyds: My plan is to develop Brazil as the major financial center in the world.


*****

Ricardo: That will not happen in a million years if Brazil does not adopt a strong currency such as the euro or the New Asian currency.

If you want I can show to you the links to many of my articles that discuss that subject. Maybe after you read some of them you change your mind about the future of global currencies.


*****

Lloyds: Con graduation to your predication of Euro exchange rate. However, I am not impressed at all.


*****


Ricardo: you would if you had an understanding of how complex the international monetary system really is.

And since you are not impressed with my correct forecasts then you can give us your prediction about the value of the US dollar vs. the euro and also the value of the real vs. the US dollar a year from now.

Then we will check how smart you really are.

.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 05, 2008
Hello $$$,

I think that you have misunderstood me. First of all, I am not in China. Don't worry about the low labor cost. The labor cost of my country is very high.

If you read my plan carefully, I plan to improve the research and technology capacity in Brazil. None of these depends on cheap labor.

You are smart people. Would you please read it carefully again?
I do not think that no part of the plan will benefit other countries. If so, please point it out.

In fact, I have invested in the Brazilian index and currency. If Brazil is good, I will be better. As I said before, I also wish my Brazilian friends well. It explains my motive.

Tom
Regarding China and the New International Monetary System.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 05, 2008
Lloyds made some references about my prior plan which included China as a source of the financing for my plan.

In that proposal we would have a transaction between two sovereign governments – China would invest the money on a 30-year bond secured by the Brazilian government and China would receive interest regarding that loan. Then the Brazilian government would have created an agency to invest that money according to my plan and to keep track of the funds with full accountability and transparency of each project.

This is not a proposal based from a subservient point of view as Lloyds think. This is a proposal from equal to equal and I did explain on my prior proposal what China would had to gain from such agreement with the Brazilian government.

It will be a matter of national security for China since when you have hungry people by the millions those people can start a revolution to overthrow the government.

China has over 1.3 billion people and China don’t have many alternatives around the world as a source of food to feed such a large population.

Right now every government around the world is reevaluating its freshwater resources and its agriculture strategies for the future under a new global system of food shortages and other clime related issues.

Brazil would be one of the few places around the globe that China would be able to secure a reliable annual source of food to help heed the population in China.

As a matter of fact China needs more the resources from Brazil than Brazil needs the money from China. Brazil always will have other markets around the world that will need the resources from Brazil.

If China was smart then they would bend over to help develop the Brazilian economy, because a stronger and richer Brazil would be a market for the to sell many of China’s manufactured goods.

A close economic integration between the Chinese economy and the Brazilian economy would lift all the boats on both countries.

I would never have suggested a proposal in which Brazil would be subservient to anybody including China.

My proposal was a business deal of equals and both countries would win by doing it.

It is a win win situation for both parties.

My proposal for Brazil to adopt the new Asian currency it also based on what will be good for the Brazilian economy. Where the major market is going to be for Brazilian goods – which in this case it will be the Asian market including China, India, Japan, and the other countries of the area.

In the coming years most countries around the world will have to reevaluate its global position and they will have to decide which of a hand full of currencies to adopt including the euro, the US dollar, the new Asian currency, the new gulf currency, the Russians also might create a new currency for the new Soviet Union, and we might have a new currency that is not even in the radar today and will surprise everybody.

The days of little currencies such as the Brazilian real, the pound Sterling, and many others are getting close to their final days.

The British have not adopted the euro as yet because they refuse to acknowledge that they are no longer the world power that they once were – but eventually they will adopt the euro as well as Sweden, and Norway.

The trillions of US dollars (hot money) that floats around the world on a daily basis will force the countries to choose one of the major currencies – if for anything else as a matter of protection against the hot money.

If California was not part of the US dollar system a few years ago when the Californian economy collapsed the entire state of California would have melted such as Argentina did about the same time.

Argentina collapsed and when bankrupt because Argentina did not belong to a club such as the euro and they did not have the protection of a strong currency.

Argentina still have not fully recovered from that crisis even today, and that crisis hurt the Argentinean economy much more than the California economy, and one of the major reasons is that California was under the umbrella of the US dollar.

Has nothing to do with pride here – France and Germany gave up their own old currencies because they realized that their economies would be better protected under a much stronger currency than they had before.

These new currencies including the euro are economic arrangements that benefit the countries participating on these arrangements. Many economies in Europe are in better shape under this euro arrangement than if they had kept their old currencies.

At the end of the day Brazil will need to reevaluate its current and future position in the global economy of the 21st Century, and Brazil will need to become a member of the club that will benefit the most the Brazilian economy and the Brazilian people.

.
About above posting
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 05, 2008
Sorry about some of the misspellings on the above posting, but it is 3 in the morning and I posted the above without reading what I just finished writing.

.
Regarding the article published by the Financial Times on Aug 4, 2008
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 05, 2008
The Brazilian market for equities has been battered since last May. And the mood is very negative right now and the hot money are leaving Brazil as fast as they came.

In my opinion the Brazilian government just lost a good opportunity to play a game with the big boys.

Instead of Petrobras announcing to the world that they were bringing their people from around the world to develop the new oil found in Brazil as the Financial Times article said, a better strategy would have been for Petrobras to announce that at this time they were having a hard time finding qualified people around the world for them to hire those people to develop the new oil in Brazil.

Since that implied that production of the new fields would be delayed indefinitely then the Petrobras stock would have declined to a much lower level than today.

In the meantime the Brazilian government would buy most of the stock being held by foreigners as they could at the lowest price possible.

In another 2 or 3 months then they would announce that they were bringing their people from around the world to develop the new oil fields in Brazil.

That strategy would have saved billions of US dollars for the Brazilian government on this new stock buyback program.

Only the hot money with no foresight of the future it would have been screwed by that strategy.

Then at that time the Brazilian government would have made an offer for the remaining shares of Petrobras in foreign hands.

.
Dr
written by Tom Lloyds, August 05, 2008
Ricardo:

Thank you for your reply.

I think that I would stop here. I have said enough. Brazilian can judge my plan and compare with your plan.

I should tell you that nowadays, every investor will run away when he hear the nice word, "nationalization". Do not expect China will come if you say the word, "nationalization" again. I just get the news yesterday that China is bidding the third largest bank in Germany.


Tom
Tom Llyods
written by $$$, August 06, 2008
Tom, I must confess that Mr.Amara and you are just hilarious. He, a Brazilian living in the U.S. and you a Chinese Citizen living God knows where, coming out with plans to improve Brazil. I am afraid that you both are clueless about the ground realities in Brazil. He trying to extract money from PRC and you counter attacking. You giving him advice to keep his hands off China, Canada, U.S., Brazil and all the countries in U.N. You are one of the most entertaining bloggers, I have had the pleasure of encountering. You are very humorous and objective to boot.

It is an honor to be acquainted with you.
Reply to $$$
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 06, 2008
I am aware about the realities in Brazil, but everybody writes about those realities of today.

I am trying to build the world of tomorrow and every country that eventually prospered had to start improving at some point.

I am not just writing articles to entertain you and the other bloggers. I am actually doing something about to implement my plan.

I am taking one step at the time and soon enough I will find out if I will have the right people with deep pockets to start funding the first stages of my plan and move it forward.

I have been preparing myself for 30 years to finally put this show in the road.

My plan is not about the reality of today – it is about building a better future for everyone.

If the Chinese were able to lift the boat for 600 million people in such a short period of time – we also will be able to lift the boats in Brazil for over 100 million people.

.
Reply to $$$ from Tom Lloyds
written by Tom Lloyds, August 06, 2008
Hello $$$,

Thank you very much for your appreciation. Sure, I am interested in encountering you. Would you please tell me how I can contact you?

Regards,


Tom
Reply to Ricardo
written by Tom Lloyds, August 06, 2008
Hello Ricardo,

We have heated discussions. To be honest, during the discussion, I have learned from you. I have some investment in Brazil, and I hope that this country can do well as you do.

Thank you very much for your time.

Take care.

Regards,


Tom
Reply to Tom Lloyds
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 06, 2008
Dear Tom,

My apologies if I insulted you during our discussions, but you pissed me off when you told me to stay away from my country.

The editor of The Brasilians (the oldest Brazilian newspaper published here in the US) told me a few years ago that I was the most controversial writer that he had, and when people approached him at Brazilian functions around NY City and made a comment about an article usually was one of mine.

I have a thick skin since many of my articles over the years were very controversial and I got a lot emails sent direct to me, or letters to the editor regarding my articles. I still receive emails about these articles but today most people write their comments following the article. It is more fun that way because gives me a chance to clarify things that needs further clarification.

I usually have courteous and civil discussions on these forums and I respond in an abusive way only when I am provoked.

I wish you good luck with your Brazilian investment but I hope you have not invested in agricultural land in Brazil.

Brazil needs to close the door on agriculture land owned by foreigners – and the current foreigners who own agricultural land in Brazil will have 5 years to sell their land to a Brazilian.

You would be surprised to find out how many countries around the world are reevaluating their national laws regarding land ownership by foreigners. I was surprised to find out that even states here in the United States are closing that door, but they give 5 years for the foreigner to sell their holdings.

We have a new game going on in the global economy and the rules of the game are changing very fast and they are being adapted to the new ball game of the 21st Century.

Best regards,

Ricardo

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written by Tom Lloyds, August 06, 2008
Hello Ricardo,

Although our discussions are not that civilized in any standard, they can help each other to understand arguments. I really hope your country can do well.

It is a pleasure to talk to you here. Take care.

Regards,

Tom
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written by $$$, August 06, 2008
"Brazil needs to close the door on agriculture land owned by foreigners – and the current foreigners who own agricultural land in Brazil will have 5 years to sell their land to a Brazilian."

We don't have to pay anything to the foreigners nor wait for 5 years for them to decide. Our MST can grab the lands and have them free. We can always get the know-how from Zimbabwe.
reply to $$$
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 06, 2008
I am aware of what has been going on in Zimbabwe.

I am not saying that O Sem Terra should take away the land of foreign owner in Brazil.

They are given 5 years to sell their land to a Brazilian.

I understand that Brazilian are very gullible.

Today Brazil has the most desirable agriculture land in the world, and what makes it even more desirable is the amount of freshwater available in Brazil as compared with the rest of the world.

Everybody is closing their doors in agriculture to foreign ownership of agriculture land, but the Brazilians always can sell their land for a song and in the future people are going to look back and look like France that sold the Louisiana territory to the United States for nothing. Or even worse we are going look like the native American indians that sold the Island of Manhattan for even less.

I just saw a recent program on television about how Americans are buying more and more agriculture land in Brazil. They have agriculture farms the size of New Jersey.

China also is waking up to that fact and you can bet they will be scrumbling to buy large pieces of land in Brazil.

At least you grasped one part of their plan - after they bought most of the land they can ship the Brazilians to Angola and Zimbabwe.

The day the Brazilians finally wake up it is because: it is time to pack their bags to move to Africa.

Even here in the United States they are closing the door to foreign ownership of agriculture land - but in Brazil Brazilians would say: O meu deixa pra la.

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